wcoaee meeting: natural gas & electric update april 16, 2015
TRANSCRIPT
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WCOAEE Meeting:Natural Gas & Electric Update
April 16, 2015
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Natural Gas System
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Natural Gas Supply
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Natural Gas Interstate Pipelines
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Natural Gas BTU Flow in 2008
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LNG Imports Rise & Fall on Price
Canadian & LNG Import History
Canadian Imports Fill Rising US Need & Keep Prices Low
Canada Can’t Keep Up & Prices Rise
US Production Up, Canadian Imports Down
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Production increased 30% in 10 years and 5% in past year alone.
Declining Production
Katrina & Rita
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Gas Demand
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Residential Consumption
Slow Peak Increase & Highly Weather Dependent
Steady Summer Use
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Commercial Consumption
Increasing Winter Peak if Normal Weather
Steady Summer Use
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Higher Beginning Levels
Warm Winter
Cold Winter
Higher Storage Peaks
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Industrial Consumption
Rising Prices & Declining Use Low or dropping prices & Increasing Use
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Electric Generation Consumption
$6.00
$13
$4.80 $4.40
$3.00
$3.50
$3.40
Dramatically Growing Use. Nearly 50% Rise in 10 Years.
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Regulatory Update
Large expansion of gathering lines is gaining speed in Ohio.
Siting of gas stripping plants is going to accelerate. Interstate pipeline reversals & expansions will shift basis
markets. Horizontal fracking regulations always a possibility. If fracking regulations are implemented expect dramatic
increases in natural gas, oil & electricity prices.
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Trends & things to watch for
Gas production has continued to increase BUT… Oil Price decline will eventually reduce gas production. Rig Productivity has Increased dramatically in past 5
years. Low Costs have created future Industrial demand. Gas use for electricity will continue rising…the pace will
be driven by the EPA and the Price. CNG Trucks and Fleets will continue expanding but more
slowly. LNG Exports Coming in 2016. first to Flow due to Price.
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Electricity
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Electricity Supply
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Electricity Supply
Supplying customers is broken into three main components… Generation (deregulated in Ohio). Transmission (federally regulated). Distribution: sub-stations to customer meters (State
Regulated). Generation cannot be easily stored. It is produced as needed by customers. Customer consumption varies significantly from day to
night or weekdays to weekends.
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1,978,301
100,39120,754
710,100
15,252
788,528
268,417
83,067
Electric Generation by Fuel Source 2004
Coal
PetroleumLiquids
PetroleumCoke
NaturalGas
OtherGas
Nuclear
HydroelectricConventional
RenewableSourcesExcludingHydroelectric
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1,585,998
13,41013,453
1,113,665
12,271
789,017
269,136
253,328
Electric Generation by Fuel Source 2013
Coal
PetroleumLiquids
PetroleumCoke
NaturalGas
OtherGas
Nuclear
HydroelectricConventional
RenewableSourcesExcludingHydroelectric
Natural Gas up 57% from 2004 to 2013
Renewable Production tripled from 2004 to 2013.
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Electricity demand
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Jan-
73
Nov-7
3
Sep-
74
Jul-7
5
May
-76
Mar
-77
Jan-
78
Nov-7
8
Sep-
79
Jul-8
0
May
-81
Mar
-82
Jan-
83
Nov-8
3
Sep-
84
Jul-8
5
May
-86
Mar
-87
Jan-
88
Nov-8
8
Sep-
89
Jul-9
0
May
-91
Mar
-92
Jan-
93
Nov-9
3
Sep-
94
Jul-9
5
May
-96
Mar
-97
Jan-
98
Nov-9
8
Sep-
99
Jul-0
0
May
-01
Mar
-02
Jan-
03
Nov-0
3
Sep-
04
Jul-0
5
May
-06
Mar
-07
Jan-
08
Nov-0
8
Sep-
09
Jul-1
0
May
-11
Mar
-12
Jan-
13
Nov-1
3 -
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Residential & Commercial Electric Use 1973 thru 2014
Residential Commercial
Use Grows As Economic Activity Increases
Wider Swings in Use due to AC Load
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Jan-
73
Nov-7
3
Sep-
74
Jul-7
5
May
-76
Mar
-77
Jan-
78
Nov-7
8
Sep-
79
Jul-8
0
May
-81
Mar
-82
Jan-
83
Nov-8
3
Sep-
84
Jul-8
5
May
-86
Mar
-87
Jan-
88
Nov-8
8
Sep-
89
Jul-9
0
May
-91
Mar
-92
Jan-
93
Nov-9
3
Sep-
94
Jul-9
5
May
-96
Mar
-97
Jan-
98
Nov-9
8
Sep-
99
Jul-0
0
May
-01
Mar
-02
Jan-
03
Nov-0
3
Sep-
04
Jul-0
5
May
-06
Mar
-07
Jan-
08
Nov-0
8
Sep-
09
Jul-1
0
May
-11
Mar
-12
Jan-
13
Nov-1
3 -
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Industrial Use 1973 thru 2014
Increased Use with Economic Ex-pansion
Recession
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Electricity Demand
Charts show that electricity use rises with growth. Peak demand has risen faster than Use. 1973 peak month exceeded average monthly use by
10%. 2013 peak month exceeded average monthly use by
15%. 5% may not seem like much but that equals 22,000 MW. Generation output of FE – Ohio, DP&L & Duke-Ohio
combined!
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Generation Capacity Basics
Electricity can’t be economically stored in large quantities.
FERC assigns balancing generation responsibilities to PJM.
PJM covers 65 million people in 13 states.
Balancing is happening 24 hrs/day….every day.
PJM is broken into Zones by Dist. Utility.
Value of capacity established by Zone.
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Gen. capacity Basics #2
Generation capacity is imbedded in your electric supply costs.
Amount of capacity needed is established by PJM.
Capacity value by region established via auction.
May 2015 Auction: June 2018-May 2019.
PJm system 18/19 peak Est. @ 175,000 MW.
System includes Reserve margin of 15-20%.
Gen. Cap. Are payments to power generators to meet system needs.
Capacity payments for 16/17 est. @ $5.5 billion
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How much does this impact Me?
Yearly Capacity cost per MW
Est. Cost imbedded using 200 kW PLC with annual use of 1.0 GWh.Territory Jun ’13-
May ’14Unit Cost
Jun ’14- May ’15
Unit Cost
Jun ’15- May ’16
Unit Cost
Jun ’16 –May ’17
Unit Cost
FirstEnergy 2.1 mills 9.4 mills 21.6 mills 6.6 mills
Rest of Ohio 2.1 mills 9.4 mills 9.9 mills 4.3 mills
TerritoryJun ’13- May ‘14
Jun ’14- May ’15
Jun ’15- May ’16
Jun ’16- May ’17
FirstEnergy $10,400 $47,200 $108,000 $33,000
Rest of Ohio $10,400 $47,200 $49,500 $21,700
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State Regulatory Update
Duke, AEP & FE all have ESP Cases pending at the PUCO.
Duke & FE attempting to eliminate load factor riders. All 3 Utilities are requesting stabilization riders. Duke is/was only looking for OVEC Pass thru. AEP initially only looking for OVEC past thru. FE requested pass thru On 4 plants for 3,200 MW. AEP increased their pass thru request by 2,700 MW. AEP & Duke orders issued in past 5 weeks.
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PJM/Federal Regulatory Update
PJM is tasked with keeping power flowing 24 hrs. x 7 days/week.
winter 2014 peaks were much higher than anticipated. Lots of generation unavailable. Winter 2015 peaks > 2014 but system was better
prepared. PJM is starting to modify its system to include winter peaks.
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Trends/Things to watch for
Additional coal plant retirements if EPA restricts carbon. Low gas prices = added pressure on coal Plants. Electric Price squeezes or spikes likely to more frequently. Very cold weather will trigger electric & gas price spikes as gas
delivery capacity is stretched very thin. Nationwide renewable trend is likely to continue. Generation capacity cost roller coaster will continue. Higher ancillary costs and price spikes will make electric
suppliers more risk averse and they will add margin to cover. Ongoing emphasis on energy efficiency will continue.