WATER SCENARIO OF PAKISTAN

“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, or the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.”

Charles Darwin (1859)

Objective

To become Thought Leaders on water sector in Pakistan by

conducting a detailed study; analyzing the present and future

water balance leading to recommendations for public policy

development.

Global Fresh Water Availability

20 % of the World’s population lives in water-scarce regions, and as many as 45 % of the World Population could experience water scarcity by 2025

Pakistan falls in the water

stressed regions!

Picture 1 : Freshwater availability (m3 per person per year, 2007)

Background

Country 1955 1990 2025

USA 14,934 9,913 7,695

Philippines 13,507 5,173 3,072

Mexico 11,396 4,226 2,597

Iraq 18,441 6,029 2,356

China 4,597 2,427 1,818

Pakistan 2,490 1,672 837

Population Action Control ,1993

Current Situation in Pakistan

Year Population (M) Per Capita Water Availability(m3)

1981 84 2100

2000 148 1200

2013 207 850

2025 221 659

• There is no consensus on the exact per capita water availability

• The water situation in Pakistan is going from bad to worse

Background

Table 2:Per Capita Water Availability of Pakistan (WAPDA Report 2003) Table 3:Per Capita Water Availability of different countries

Water Availability: Surface Water

•The sources of Indus and Sutlej is in the Chinese-held Tibetan Plateau•Tibet has a unique triple role of Asia’s water repository, water supplier, and rainmaker•The sources of Indus and Sutlej is in the Chinese-held Tibetan Plateau

Background

Picture 3 :Tibet Plateau Picture 4:Tibet Plateau and major rivers

Pakistan’s Water Demand

• WAPDA has assumed a value of 104 MAF for it’s year 2025 vision since 2004

Year 2004 2025

Availability 104 MAF 104MAF ?????

Requirement(Including Drinking Water)

115 MAF 135MAF

Overall Shortfall 11 MAF 31 MAF

Table 10:Pakistan’s Water Scenario

Background

Section 2:Problems and Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan

Problems and Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan

Inadequate Infrastructure

1 2 3

Poor AgriculturePractices Policy Constraints

4 65

Degradation of Water Quality Increase in Water Demand Politics

1-Poor Agriculture Practices

• Seepage losses in irrigation system due to poor irrigation infrastructure• The Irrigation System can be lined to avoid the freshwater seepage into the system• Easiest is to line watercourses as they can be isolated and attended all year round

Seepage Losses in Irrigation System (MAF)

Grand Total 65.0

Seeps underground and replenishes Freshwater aquifer 33.0

Wasted in underground saline water aquifer 32.0

Bigger canals 8.0

Distributaries and minors 3.5

Water-courses 12.5

Agriculture Field 8.0

Source: Planning & Development Division Estimates

Problem & Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan

Table 12 :Seepage Losses in Irrigation System

1-Poor Agriculture Practices: Low Agriculture Yield

Water Intensive Cropping

% of Cultivated Land

Crops Pakistan USA India

Wheat 53 17 30

Sugarcane 17 - 4.5

Rice 16 1 28

Water Productivity for Wheat

Pakistan India California 0.5 kg/m3 1.0 kg/m3 1.5 kg/m3

•The productivity of water in Pakistan is among the lowest in the world•We are exporting our water in the shape of water intensive crops and products

*Major Crop is Corn:30% and Soya:27%Glance at Poor Agriculture Practices

Problem & Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan

Table 13 :Water Productivity for Wheat

Table 14 :Water Intensive Cropping

Graph 2:Wheat yields per unit of land & water

1-Poor Agricultural Practices:Water Intensive Cropping

Picture 6:Overexploitation of groundwater from Aral Sea ,a huge reservoir of freshwater

•The demise of the Aral Sea in Central Asia remains one of the most iconic global images•Cotton was unnecessarily sown around a thirsty area which converted Aral Sea into small ponds

1989 2008

Problem & Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan

Water Usage-Virtual Water

Adapted from ‘UNESCO’ (2009)

Cotton

Meat

Rice

Pulses

Citrus Fruits

Milk

Wheat

Potatoes

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000

How many liters of water is required to produce 1 kg of:

Water Consumption (liter)

Graph 3: How many liters of water is required to produce 1 Kg of:

Problem & Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan

2-Inadequate Infrastructure:Low Storage Capacity

Basins (Country) Storage Days

Colorado –USA 900

Murray Darling (Australia) 900

Orange (South Africa) 500

Cauvery(India) 150

Indus (Pakistan) 30

Pakistan has one of the lowest storage capacity in cubic meters per capita among semi-arid countries

Problem & Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan

Country Large Dams*

China 85,100

United States 9,265

India 5,102

Brazil 1,392

Pakistan 154

Table 16 :No. of Dams in Selected Countries Table 15 :No. of Storage Days of Different Basins

* A large dam is defined by the dam industry as one higher than 15 metres

2-Inadequate Infrastructure:Low Storage Capacity

River Flows & Storage Potential

Down Stream Kotri Average Flows (1976-2009) 31.31 MAF*

Uses

Minimum Downstream Kotri Requirement minus 8.6 MAF

Capacity enhancement of Mangla Dam by raising dam height minus2.9 MAF

Decrease in flow of Indian Rivers (As per Indus Water Treaty) minus2.0 MAF

Water Going in Sea 17.81 MAF

*This is the quantity available during floods, otherwise the water flow is very low in normal years

Table 17:Water Storage Opportunity Lost during floods

Problem & Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan

2-Inadequate Infrastructure: Siltation Reducing Storage Capacity

• Mangla Dam’s capacity was increased by 2.88 MAF in 2009• Our existing total capacity is approximately 14 MAF

Reservoirs Storage Capacity

Original Year 2009 Year 2012 Year 2025

MAF MAF MAF MAF

Tarbela 9.68 (1974) 6.78 6.5 5.38

Mangla 5.34 (1967) 7.34* 7.32 7.08

Chashma 0.72 (1971) 0.37 0.43 0.34

Total 15.74 14.49 14.25 12.8

* =4.46 + 2.88(Increase in height)=7.34

Problem & Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan

Table 18:Reservoir Sedimentation

2-Inadequate Infrastructure: Flooding due to Siltation

• Silt builds up in dams & barrages• River width compromised due to settlement and population growth• Reduced river width causes silt deposition in the river bed, reducing its depth & flow capacity• High risk of disastrous flooding to human settlements close to the river in the future

• Over the past 67 years, there have been 21 major floods in Pakistan(NDMA)• These floods have inflicted a cumulative financial loss of more than $37 billion

Problem & Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan

Graph 4: Flood Losses in Pakistan

2-Inadequat Infrastructure:Unfavorable Climate Change

The volume of flood water was more than 4 times of Pakistan's annual reservoirs’ capacity

Problem & Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan

Picture 7: Flood 2010 Picture 8: Flood 2014

•Flood in the Chenab River played havoc in the country •It caused over 200 deaths and over 700 villages washed away

Section 3 :Recommendations for Water Challenges in Pakistan

Recommendations

Short Term Recommendations (Within 1 Year)

• Lining of Water Course & Distributaries• Floodwater Harvesting-New Lakes • Rainwater Harvesting • Artificial Rain • Fish-duck-rice farming• Importing Water-Intensive Products • Efficient Water Resource Management• Hydroponics • Grey Water Harvesting

Recommendations

Mid Term Recommendations (1 to 5 years) • Water Pricing • Dredging Barrages & Upstream areas within bunds • Construct more link canals between rivers• Check Dams• Cropping Pattern/Better Yield Crops• Improving Urban Water Distribution • Industrial Wastewater Treatment • Reverse Osmosis of Saline Water

Long Term Recommendations(More than 5 years)• Lining of Canals • Desalination• Building dams & reservoirs