water resources advisory commission 2012 lower east …
TRANSCRIPT
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Robert Verrastro, Lead Hydrogeologist Ian Miller, Lead Economist
SFWMD
Water Resources Advisory Commission 2012 Lower East Coast Water Supply Plan Update
April 18, 2012
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
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Economic Cycles and Development Phases
• Over last decade region experienced: • Housing price appreciation and rapid development / urban sprawl • Financial crisis and housing bubble burst • A lengthy Great Recession followed by slow recovery with
construction activity remaining at low levels
• In 2012, slow pace of residential development, favorable relative prices for land, opportunity for agricultural retention/ expansion continues
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
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Economic Cycles and Development Phase (cont)
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
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Economic Cycles and Development Phase (cont)
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Water Supply Categories
The 2010 Pie Public Water Supply
Domestic Self Supply
Agriculture
Power Generation
Industrial/Commercial
Recreational/Landscape
PWS 49% AGR 37%
DSS 1%
Power 1%
Industrial 3% Recreation 9%
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Population Served by Public Water Supply
• Includes: Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties
• Population: – 2000 4,914,716 – 2010 5,537,841 – 2030 6,558,550
• 53 public water supply utilities
MDWASD
Ft. Lauderdale
Hollywood
Sunrise
PBCWUD
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Population and Water Demand Projections
• Method described in Section 373.709, F.S. • Utilize best available data • Start with BEBR medium projections • Update every 5 years
BEBR = Bureau of Economic & Business Research
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Progress to Date
• Coordinated with utilities to develop initial service area maps
and population projections
• Distributed service area maps, population and demand projections to 53 utilities
• Conducted follow-up meetings with utilities to update/review:
• populations • finished water records • demands • service areas
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Population Projection Sources
Maps of areas currently served for each utility
2010 Population – Census Block data (smallest units available)
2030 Population – Florida Population by County BEBR, June 2011
Recent approvals by Dept of Economic Opportunity
County Planning Department’s Utility Projections
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Population by County
County 2010 2030
Palm Beach 1,319,983 1,648,000
Broward 1,748,066 1,996,535
Miami-Dade 2,496,435 2,952,800
Monroe 73,090 69,300
Hendry 1,279 1,440
LEC Planning Area Total 5,638,853 6,668,075
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S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Changes in the LEC BEBR 2030 Population Projections over the past 6 years
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5,600,000 5,800,000 6,000,000 6,200,000 6,400,000 6,600,000 6,800,000 7,000,000 7,200,000 7,400,000 7,600,000 7,800,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
BEBR = Bureau of Economic & Business Research
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Why Use 2010 Data?
• FDEP guidance to use 2010 as a “base year” • 2010 population statistics were available from Census • Water restrictions had been in place for several years,
then were lifted in March 2010 • Uniform methodology with other water supply plans • Meteorologically an “average” rainfall year
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Method to Project Finished Water Demands
• 2010 utility service area population (from Census data) • 2010 finished water demand (from MORs reported to FDEP) • Compute 2010 finished water “planning per capita usage”
_________________________ • Apply projected 2030 BEBR population to each county • Prorate 2030 county population to each utility service area
__________________________ • Multiply “planning per capita usage” by 2030 service area
population to compute 2030 utility finished water demand
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Historical Per Capita Usage
County 2000 gpcd
2005 gpcd
2010 gpcd
Palm Beach 219 203 157 Broward 153 139 124 Miami-Dade 168 157 139 Monroe 216 211 198 LEC Planning Area Average 176 163 140
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2005 2010
Palm Beach Broward Miami-Dade Monroe
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Why Are Per Capita Rates Declining?
• Slow economy • Water use restrictions (2007-2010) • Rainfall patterns • Year-round rule implemented • Improved effectiveness of
conservation programs
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Finished Water: Comparison of Actual 2010 Demands and Future Projections
County 2010 2030 % Change
Palm Beach 206.6 260.7 +26
Broward 216.9 248.7 +15
Miami-Dade 347.3 410.7 +18
Monroe 16.4 15.6 -5
LEC Planning Area Total 787.2 933.0 +19
2010 and 2030 Draft Projections for 2012 LEC Plan (MGD)
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
1000
Palm Beach Broward Miami-Dade Monroe Total
2010
2030
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Public Water Supply Finished Water Demand (MGD)
Evolution of Demand Projections
Plan Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 Plan 784 870 956 1,042 1,128 1,215
2005 Plan 869 945 1,021 1,097 1175
2010 Plan 787 824 861 898 933
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2000 Plan 2005 Plan 2010 Plan
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Domestic Self-Supply
County 2010 Population
2010 Estimate
(MGD)
2030 Population
2030 Estimate
(MGD)
Palm Beach 68,441 10.7 71,732 11.2
Broward 7,598 0.6 8,329 1.0
Miami-Dade 23,694 3.3 28,025 3.9
Hendry 1,279 1.4 1,440 1.6
LEC Planning Area Total 101,012 16.0 109,526 17.7
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Water Use Categories
The Rest of the Water Uses Agricultural Self-Supply Power Generation Self-Supply Industrial/Commercial/Institutional
Self-Supply Recreational/Landscape Self-Supply
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Agricultural Self-Supply: LEC Counties
Palm Beach
Broward
Miami-Dade
Monroe
Hendry
LEC WS Plan Area
EAA
Coastal/Agricultural Reserve
EAA
Western Basins
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Agricultural Self-Supply: Commercially Grown Crop Categories
Citrus
Other Fruits and Nuts
Vegetables, melons &
berries
Sugarcane
Other Field Crops
Sod
Greenhouse/Nursery
Total Irrigated Acreage – LEC Planning Area
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Agricultural Self-Supply: 2010 Overview
5.8%
1.5%
15.2%
70.7%
2.8%
1.4% 2.6%
LEC Agricultural Acres by Crop Category - 543,684 acres
Citrus Other Fruits & Nuts Vegetables Melons Berries
Sugarcane Other Field Crops Sod
Greenhouse / Nursery
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Agricultural Self-Supply: Projection Method
• Evaluate trends and projected land use to develop acreage projections
• What is considered? • County Land Use Plans & Future Targets • Regional specialization (i.e., climate & tropical fruit orchards) • Market conditions and input from agricultural stakeholders • Consumption trends • Production patterns • Crop specific studies and future outlooks • SFWMD land acquisition and leases • Compare plans to projected acres
• Use acreage projections and AFSIRS model to develop water demand projections • Plan to identify and meet demands during a 1-in-10 year drought event,
373.709, F.S. • Gross and Net Demands Projected
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S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Agricultural Projection Data Sources & Key Assumptions
Data & Information Sources:
• USDA – Florida Census of Agriculture • National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS) • SFWMD Regulatory Permit Database • USGS • 2005-2006 LEC Water Supply Plan Update • USDA Economic Research Service
• IFAS / County Extension Reps / Field Research Centers
• County Agricultural Economic Development Coordinators
• FDACS Press reports & articles • Commodity Price Reports • Other agricultural organizations
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Assumptions: • Low – High scenarios based on uncertainty over citrus recovery • High Scenario used in Plan
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Citrus Scenarios
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
* Low and high scenarios based on recovery assumptions from "Future of the Global Orange Juice Industry" Research Symposium (Citrus Research & Education Center, Lake Alfred, FL, April 8, 2010) * 2005 data from USGS irrigated acres
LEC Citrus Acres
Low Scenario
High Scenario*
LEC WSP 2005-2006
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Agricultural Self-Supply: 2010 & 2030 Acres Total Acres by County by Crop Category - 2010
Citrus
Other Fruits &
Nuts Vegetables
Melons Berries Sugarcane
Other Field Crops Sod
Greenhouse / Nursery Total
Palm Beach 2,474 193 42,000 345,000 13,000 7,000 4,500 414,167
Broward - 80 819 - 40 9 250 1,198
Miami-Dade 717 8,000 28,000 - 1,974 114 9,000 47,805
Monroe - - - - - - 20 20
Hendry County 28,437 29 11,711 39,100 65 652 500 80,494
LEC Planning Area Total 31,628 8,302 82,530 384,100 15,079 7,775 14,270 543,684
Total Acres by County by Crop Category - 2030
Citrus
Other Fruits &
Nuts Vegetables
Melons Berries Sugarcane
Other Field Crops Sod
Greenhouse / Nursery Total
Palm Beach 2,715 235 41,000 385,000 17,000 10,000 5,500 461,450
Broward - 80 801 - 40 9 350 1,280
Miami-Dade 788 7,850 27,000 - 2,196 120 9,000 46,954
Monroe - - - - - - 20 20
Hendry County 31,202 29 13,117 50,000 73 652 800 95,873
LEC Planning Area Total 34,705 8,194 81,918 435,000 19,309 10,781 15,670 605,577
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
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Agricultural Self-Supply Gross Water Demands: 2010 - 2030
Gross Irrigation Demands for Average Conditions by County (MGD)
County 2010 2030 2010 to 2030 (MGD)
2010 to 2030 (percent)
Palm Beach 396.5 446.8 50.3 12.7% Broward 2.0 2.3 0.3 15.0% Miami-Dade 66.2 65.1 -1.1 -1.7% Monroe 0.05 0.05 0 0% Hendry 139.2 160.1 20.9 15.0%
LEC Planning Area Total 604.0 674.4 70.4 11.7%
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Agricultural Self-Supply Gross Water Demands: 2010 - 2030
Gross Irrigation Demands for Average Conditions by Crop Type (MGD)
Crop 2010 2030 2010 to 2030
(MGD) 2010 to 2030
(percent)
Citrus 47.5 45.1 -2.4 -5.1%
Field Crops - Sugarcane 368.8 423.0 54.2 14.7%
Field Crops - Other 28.2 36.5 8.3 29.4%
Vegetables, Melons & Berries 98.5 99.7 1.2 1.2%
Sod 12.6 17.1 4.5 35.7%
Greenhouse/Nursery 38.4 43.1 4.7 12.2%
Other Fruits and Nuts 10.0 10.0 0 0%
LEC Planning Area Total 604.0 674.4 70.4 11.7%
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Power Generation Self-Supply Gross Water Demands: 2010 - 2030
Power Generation Self-Supply Demands (MGD)
Plant 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
FPL West County (existing)1 5.2 0 0 0 0 FPL Turkey Point (existing)2 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 FPL Proposed 0 0 7.6 15.2 22.8
Homestead Municipal (existing) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
LEC Planning Area Total 11.7 7.5 16.1 24.7 33.3 1 plant started receiving reclaimed water in 2010 2 Turkey Point 5 plant
Highlights: Source changes. Use of saline water for thermoelectric cooling Move towards use of reclaimed water (FPL West) Process efficiencies in combined cycle gas power generation No distinction between gross and net water demand
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Industrial/Commercial/Institutional Self-Supply Gross Water Demands: 2010 - 2030
Industrial/Commercial/Institutional Self Supply Demands
(MGD)
County 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Palm Beach 5.4 4.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 Broward 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 Miami-Dade 37.3 34.6 54.0 51.8 51.8
LEC Planning Area Total: 44.3 40.5 58.7 56.6 56.6
Highlights: Isolate large user industries and relating water usage to future industrial production Trends in process efficiencies and sustainable resource use (i.e., LEED) influence projections Assume gross (raw) water and net (finished) water demands the same
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Recreational/Landscape Self-Supply Gross Water Demands: 2010 - 2030
Gross Irrigation Demands for Average Conditions: Recreational/ Landscape Self-Supply
County 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Palm Beach 80.6 78.9 80.3 81.8 83.4 Broward 50.3 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 Miami-Dade 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 Monroe 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Hendry 0 0 0 0 0
LEC Planning Area Total 148.9 147.9 149.4 151.1 152.8
Highlights: Includes: Golf courses, ball fields, parks, medians, community common areas, landscaped areas around
commercial property, cemeteries, schools, etc. Significant portion of demand will be met by reclaimed water use over planning horizon Golf course acres and landscape acreage projected with different method AFSIRS applied to projected acres to estimate demand
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Total Demand Projections
Water Use Category 2010 (MGD)
2030 (MGD)
Public Water Supply (finished water) 787.2 933.0
Domestic Self-Supply (finished water) 16.0 17.7
Agricultural Self-Supply 604.0 674.5
Power Generation Self-Supply 11.7 33.3
Industrial/Commercial/Institutional Self-Supply 44.3 56.6
Recreational/Landscape Self-Supply 148.9 152.8
Grand Total for LEC Planning Area 1,612.1 1,867.9
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Projection Comparisons: 2006 to 2012 Plan Average Demands (MGD)
Water Use Category 2006 LEC Plan 2025 Projection
2012 LEC Plan 2030 Projection
Public Water Supply (finished water) 1,286.5 933.0
Domestic Self-Supply (finished water) 48.9 17.6
Agricultural Self-Supply 689.1 674.4
Power Generation Self-Supply 102.6 33.3
Industrial/Commercial/Institutional Self-Supply 61.3 56.6
Recreational/Landscape Self-Supply 84.8 152.8
Grand Total for LEC Planning Area 2,273.2 1,867.8
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Bob Verrastro, P.G. Lead Hydrogeologist, Water Supply Bureau
Water Resources Advisory Commission 2012 Lower East Coast Water Supply Plan Update
April 18, 2012
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
Next Steps: Document Preparation and Review
Distribute draft chapters and appendices Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 2 and Appendix A: Demand Projections
Appendix B: Local Government Coordination
Request your review
Wastewater profiles –responses to Rick Nevulis within the next 2 weeks
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
2012 Lower East Coast Water Supply Plan Update
Governing Board Kick-off May 2011
Governing Board Approval
Early 2013
February 3 #1 Public Workshop
Scope, Schedule
and Process
#4 Public Workshop
Water Resource
Conditions and Water
Supply Issues
July #3 Public Workshop
Water Source Options and
Projects (including
conservation)
April 18 #2 Public Workshop Population and Water Demands
#5 Public Workshop
Conclusions and Comprehensive
Review
Update to WRAC and Governing
Board
LEC Water Supply Plan Update: Next Workshop - JULY
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T
2010 Rainfall
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
100%
Percent of Normal