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Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program Minnesota Department of Health Environmental Impacts Analysis Unit October 2012 625 Robert Street North PO Box 64975 St. Paul, MN 55164-0975

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Page 1: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public

Health

Water Quality & QuantityClimate Change Training Module

Minnesota Climate and Health ProgramMinnesota Department of Health

Environmental Impacts Analysis UnitOctober 2012

625 Robert Street NorthPO Box 64975

St. Paul, MN 55164-0975

Page 2: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Notice

2

MDH developed this presentation based on scientific research published in peer-reviewed journals. References for information can be found in the relevant slides and/or at the end of the presentation.

Page 3: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Learning Objectives

Importance of water in Minnesota Climate changes in Minnesota Public health issues related to:

1. Increases in water2. Decreases in water3. Increases in water temperature

3

Page 4: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

4

IMPORTANCE OF WATER IN MINNESOTA

Water SourcesWater Sources Water CycleWater Cycle Water UsesWater Uses

Page 5: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Minnesota: A Land of Water

Surface water: 11,842 lakes greater than 10 acres and 63,000 miles of rivers and streams

(NCDC 2006, University of Minnesota Water Resources Center 2011)

Groundwater: several aquifers across the state and approx-imately 400,000 drinking water wells

(DNR, 2010; MDH, 2012)

Source: University of Minnesota Water Resources Center 2011

5

Page 6: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Minnesota: A Land of Water

Has the most freshwater among the 48 lower states

(University of Minnesota Water Resources Center, 2011)

At the head of four continental watersheds and is the headwaters and origin of three of the watersheds

(DNR, 2000)

Source: DNR, 2000

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2

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Page 7: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Water in Minnesota

99% of the water that comes into Minnesota is in the form of precipitation

(University of Minnesota Water Resources Center 2011)

We control the quality & quantity of water we use and discard

7

Page 8: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Three main air masses affect Minnesota’s weather:

1. Cold, dry, polar continental from the north

2. Dry, tropical continental westerlies

3. Warm, moist tropical maritime from the Gulf of Mexico

Major air masses converging to MN

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1

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Water in Minnesota

Page 9: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Hydrologic Cycle

9

http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/watershed_tool/hydrology.html

The hydrologic cycle describes the continuous movement of water: Evaporation to the atmosphere Precipitation to the land Infiltration to groundwater Discharge to surface water

Changes in climate can alter the hydrologic cycle Temperature affects water

vapor which affects precipitation

Page 10: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Water Use 19% water use comes from ground water and the remaining

comes from surface waterTotal water use in MN from 1985 to 2010

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Page 11: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

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Water Use

Page 12: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Minnesota Drinking Water

78% of Minnesotans rely on public drinking water which is largely from groundwater (~70%)

One million Minnesotans (22%) rely on private wells, which all use groundwater

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Page 13: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Water is Key

Minnesota is rich in water resources High quality, abundant water is essential to

Minnesota economy, culture, future Understanding the basic properties of the

water cycle and the atmosphere is fundamental to understanding impacts of climate change on water

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Page 14: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

CLIMATE CHANGES IN MINNESOTA Temperature Dew point Precipitation

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Page 15: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Weather versus Climate

Weather: conditions of the atmosphere over a short period of time

Climate: conditions of the atmosphere over long periods of time (30-year standard averaging period)

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Page 16: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Climate Changes in Minnesota

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There have been three recent significant observed climate trends in Minnesota:

The average temperature is increasing The average number of days with a high

dew point may be increasing The character of precipitation is changing

Page 17: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Temperature Changes

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Temperature has been rising in Minnesota.

Page 18: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Temperature Changes

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Three significant observations in this overall warming:

Winter temperatures have been rising about twice as fast as annual average temperatures

Minimum or 'overnight low' temperatures have been rising faster than the maximum temperature, or ‘daytime high’

Since the early 1980s, the temperature has risen slightly over 1°F in southern Minnesota to a little over 2°F in much of the northern part of the state

Page 19: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Lake Superior

Temperature and Ice Cover

19

Page 20: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Dew Point Changes

20

Dew point is a measure of water vapor in the air

The higher the dew point, the more difficult it is for people's sweat to evaporate, which is how they cool themselves

The number of days with high dew point temperatures (≥ 70 °F) may be increasing in Minnesota

Page 21: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Dew Point Changes

21Source: Dr. Mark Seeley, Climatologist, University of Minnesota

Page 22: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Precipitation Changes

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On average, the total precipitation in the state has increased since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s.

Page 23: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Precipitation Changes

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The character of precipitation in Minnesota is changing More localized, heavy precipitation events Potential to cause both increased flooding and

drought

Page 24: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Public health issues related to:

Increases in water Decreases in water Increases in water temperature

Page 25: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Precipitation Changes Flooding Humidity & Dew Point

Highway 169 between St. Peter and LeSueur

Increases in Water

Page 26: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

More wintertime precipitation falls as rain rather than snow This trend may increase risks of runoff and floodsReduced snowpack may lead to lower water levels and drought in late summer

(Karl et al. 2009)26

Precipitation Changes

Changes in Snowfall Contributions to Wintertime Precipitation(1949 to 2005)

Page 27: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Precipitation Changes

Greatest increase in very heavy precipitation in the past 50 years occurred in the Northeast and the Midwest

(Karl et al. 2009)

Total precipitation in the Midwest and Northeast is expected to increase the most with the largest increases in heavy precipitation events

(Karl et al. 2009)

27Very heavy precipitation is defined as the heaviest 1 percent of all daily events from 1958 to 2007 for each region.

Page 28: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Public Health Issues - Precipitation

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Extreme Precipitation

Increased runoff: sediment,

contaminants, nitrate, etc.

Sewage overflows

Contamination of surface and groundwater

Waterborne disease outbreaks from drinking water or recreational contact (beachgoers): Giardiasis, E coli, Cryptosporidium

Physical injuries and destruction of property

Page 29: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Flooding

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Flooding results from a combination of Land use changes that reduce infiltration Undersized sewer/stormwater pipes Extreme precipitation and/or rapid snowmelt

Flood magnitude and frequency are likely to increase in most regions, and volumes of low flows are likely to decrease in many regions

(Field et al, 2007)

Page 30: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

2012 Duluth/northeastern Minnesota 500-year flood event

30

Flooding

Photo credits: Rachel Agurkis (top), Derek Montgomery for MPR (right)

Page 31: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Potential increases of: physical injuries

(including drowning) allergies (mold) food and water-borne

illnesses food security displacement mental health issues interruption of

emergency services (WHO, 2010)

31

Public Health Issues - Flooding

Oslo, MN, May 14, 200935 days after the Red River flooded

Page 32: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Public Health Issues - Flooding

32

Foodborne illnesses (e.g. Salmonellosis) Increased risk from contamination of certain food crops

with feces from nearby livestock or wild animals following heavy rain and flooding

(Ebi et al, 2008; CCSP, 2008)

Waterborne illnesses Caused by pathogens (e.g. Cryptosporidium and Giardia) which may increase following downpours Can also be transmitted in drinking water and through recreational use (Ebi et al, 2008; CCSP, 2008)

Page 33: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Public Health Issues - Flooding

33

1.61 M people were affected; over 400,000 w/ significant symptoms; 100 people died

Median duration of illness was 9 days (range, 1 to 55)

Clinical manifestations included watery diarrhea (93%), abdominal cramps (84%), fever (57%), vomiting (48%)

$31.7 million in total medical costs and $64.6 million in total lost productivity

1993 Milwaukee Cryptosporidium Outbreak

Page 34: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Mental health: anxiety disorders, depression, psychological effects

(Ebi et al. 2008)

34

Public Health Issues - Flooding

Page 35: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Humidity/Dew Point Increase

Greater frequency of tropical-like atmospheric water vapor

(Mark Seeley, 2012)35

Page 36: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

July 19, 2011: highest dew point temperature recorded ever in Minnesota 88°F dew point in Moorhead (combined with 93°F air temperature, it felt like 130°F)

(State Climatology Office)

36

Humidity/Dew Point Increase

Page 37: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Heat Index

37(Source: NWS, 2011b)

The Heat Index (HI): calculation that describes how the air temperature and dew point are perceived the human body

Page 38: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Public Health Issues – Humidity & Heat

Human health issues: heat rash, heat exhaustion, heatstroke, death

Stressed livestock: reduced milk production, reproduction problems, death

Algae blooms Mold Increased vector and microorganism populations

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Page 39: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Decrease in Water

Drought Lower water levels

Page 40: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Drought

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Page 41: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Water Levels: Great Lakes

Average Great Lakes levels depends on the balance between precipitation and evaporation (Hayhoe et al. 2010)

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Page 42: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Public Health Issues – Drought & Lower Water Levels

Reduced soil moisture reserves,

groundwater supplies, lake and

wetland levels, and stream flows

Potential concentration of

pollutants

Decreasing water supply for

drinking water and agriculture

Agriculture: adversely affects crop progress and soil moisture and therefore food supply

Wildfire dangers (e.g., Pagami Creek Fire, Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness – started August 18th 2011; 92,682 acres as of Oct. 13th 2011): injuries, property damage, anxiety, psychological effects

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Page 43: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Increase in Water Temperature

Changes in fish populations & mercury Algal blooms Reduced dissolved oxygen Incomplete mixing Increased vectors Invasive species/ northern expansion of

organisms

Page 44: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Fish Populations & Mercury

Warmer waters could harm fish populations and biological activity of cold aquatic ecosystems

Warmer waters and rainfall intensity may be contributing to an increase in mercury concentrations in fish

44Source: Peter Jacobson, DNR Fisheries Research Supervisor

Conceptual diagram of climate warming effects on Minnesota fish communities

Page 45: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Harmful Algal Blooms & Reduced Dissolved Oxygen

Increased pollution and temperatures can result in blooms of harmful algae and bacteria and reduce the amount of dissolved oxygen

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Page 46: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Incomplete mixing

Stratification Longer periods of stratification (surface and

water bottom don’t mix) may cause dead zones (low oxygen levels) and decrease self-purification capabilities of water features

May cause fish kills, poor water quality, increased insect populations, etc.

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Page 47: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Increased vectors

Climate change may contribute to the breeding of insects (e.g., mosquitoes) and may increase the risk of vector-borne diseases (e.g., West Nile virus)

Page 48: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Invasive species & northern expansion of organisms

Invasive species Asian carp Zebra mussels Sea lamprey DNR Invasive Species website: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/invasives/index.html

Expansion of disease-causing organisms Naegleria fowleri

Many zebra mussels attached to a native mussel.Source: MN DNR

Page 49: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Public Health Strategies

Green infrastructure Grey infrastructure Emergency Preparedness Individual Strategies

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Page 50: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Green Infrastructure

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Rely on natural processes: Evaporation

Trees and plant cover Infiltration

Rain gardens Pervious pavers Wetlands

Above: Target Center Roof in Minneapolis

Conservation Subdivision

Page 51: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Grey Infrastructure

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Increase capacity of stormwater pipes, storage tanks and wastewater treatment facilities to accommodate larger rain events

Page 52: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Green & Grey Infrastructure

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1. Protect natural drainage patterns, watersheds and water bodies

2. Infiltrate and collect water

3. Plant native, drought-resistant plants

4. Conserve water (e.g., low irrigation agriculture)

5. Reuse waterSource: DNR, 2011d

Water Management Solutions

Page 53: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Emergency Preparedness

53

Emergency preparedness: Plan for floods and extreme weather events

Minnesota Water/Wastewater Agency Response Network (MnWARN): http://www.mnwarn.org/

Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) website on preparing for floods: http://www.pca.state.mn.us/index.php/waste/waste-and-cleanup/cleanup-programs-and-topics/cleanup-programs/emergency-response/floods-minimizing-pollution-and-health-risks.html

Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) website on protecting private wells from floods: http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/eh/wells/waterquality/flooded.html

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Flood Insurance Program: http://www.fema.gov/business/nfip/

Page 54: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

54

Individual Strategies

Drink bottled water during and/or after a flood or outbreak Get your well tested

http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/eh/wells/waterquality/index.html Treat contaminated water

http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/eh/wells/waterquality/disinfection.html

Seek information on beaches prior to swimming and avoid visibly contaminated waters Beach info: http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/eh/beaches/index.html Blue-green algae: http://

www.health.state.mn.us/divs/eh/hazardous/topics/bluegreenalgae.html

Track fish consumption advisories http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/eh/fish/

Contaminated Water

Page 55: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Summary

Water has always been an important and abundant resource in Minnesota

Minnesota’s climate is predicted to change in the future and will impact water quality and quantity

There are serious public health issues related to: Increases in water Decreases in water Increases in water temperature

Strategies to prevent injury and illness include infrastructure adaptation and public health planning and response

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Page 56: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Acknowledgements

56

This work was supported by cooperative agreement 5UE1EH000738 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Special thanks to the following people for their contributions to the creation of this training module:

Anita Anderson, MDHPatti Craddock, Short Elliott Hendrickson Inc. (SEH)Chris Elvrum, MDHTannie Eshenaur, MDHAnn Pierce, DNRAngela Preimesberger, MPCA Lih-in Rezania, MDHAndrew Sullivan, Eden Prairie

Page 57: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

Thank you

57

Contact the Minnesota Climate and Health Program:

651-201-4893

[email protected]

http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/climatechange/

Questions?

October 10, 2012

Page 58: Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program

References

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Associate Press. Karnowski, S. 2012. Summer's heat taking toll on fish in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Dakotas. 7/12/2012. Reprinted by Pioneer Press: http://www.twincities.com/localnews/ci_21062734/heat-wave-takes-toll-minnesotas-fish Austin JA, and Colman SM. 2007. Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021. Available online: www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL029021.shtml Austin JA, and Colman SM. 2008. A century of temperature variability in Lake Superior. Limnol. Oceanogr. 53, 2724–2730. Available online:www.aslo.org/lo/pdf/vol_53/issue_6/2724.pdf Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). 2008. Analyses of the effects of global change on human health and welfare and human systems. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. [Gamble JL (ed.), Ebi KL, Sussman FG, Wilbanks TJ, (Authors)]. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA.Climate Institute. 2010. Human Health. Available online: http://www.climate.org/topics/health.html Confalonieri U, Menne B, Akhtar R, Ebi KL, Hauengue M, Kovats RS, Revich B and Woodward A. 2007. Human health. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 391-431.Conway T and Tans P. 2011. NOAA/ESRL. Available online: www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ Curriero FC, Patz JA, Rose JB, Lele S. 2001. The association between extreme precipitation and waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States, 1948-1994. American Journal of Public Health, 91(8): 1194-1199.Davis JP, MD. 2010. Case Study: Lessons from the Massive Waterborne Outbreak of Cryptosporidium Infections, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 1993. Bureau of Communicable Disease and Emergency Response, Wisconsin Division of Public Health. Available online: http://fri.wisc.edu/docs/pdf/Davis_FRI_Water_Nov2010.pdf Dukes JS and Mooney HA. 1999. ‘Does global change increase the success of biological invaders?’. Trends in Ecology & Evolution (4) 135-139Governor Dayton, M. 2012. Individual Assistance request to President Barak Obama. July 19, 2012.Department of Natural Resources (DNR). 2000. Minnesota’s Water Supply: Natural Conditions and Human Impacts. Available online:http://files.dnr.state.mn.us/publications/waters/mn_water_supply.pdf ___________. 2010. Water Availability Assessment Report. Available online: http://files.dnr.state.mn.us/aboutdnr/reports/legislative/2010_water_availablity.pdf ___________. 2011a. Drought. Available online: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/drought/index.html ___________. 2011b. Flooding in Minnesota. Available online: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/floods/index.html ___________. 2011c. Lake Level Minnesota. Available online: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/waterlevels/lakes/ index.html ___________. 2011d. Watershed Assessment Tool – Geomorphology Concepts. Available online: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/watershed_tool/geomorph_concepts.html Desai, A.R., J.A. Austin, V. Bennington, and G.A. McKinley. 2009. Stronger winds over a large lake in response to weakening air-to-lake temperature gradient. Nature Geosci. 2: 855–858. Available online: www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n12/abs/ngeo693.html Ebi KL, Balbus J, Kinney PL, Lipp E, Mills D, O’Neill MS, and Wilson M. 2008. Effects of global change on human health. In: Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems [Gamble JL (ed.), Ebi KL, Sussman FG, and Wilbanks TJ (authors)]. Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.6. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, pp. 39-87.

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Ellison CA, Sanocki CA, Lorenz DL, Mitton GB, and Kruse GA. 2011. Floods of September 2010 in Southern Minnesota. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2011–5045, 37 p., 3 app.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). 2011. Federal Disaster Declarations. Available online: http://www.fema.gov/news/disasters.fema Field CB, Mortsch LD, Brklacich M, Forbes DL, Kovacs P, Patz JA, Running SW, and Scott MJ. 2007. North America. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and

Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, and Hanson CE(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, pp. 617-652.Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, and Lo K. 2010. Global Surface Temperature Change. Reviews of Geophysics 48: RG4004. p.12Hayhoe, K., VanDorn, J., Croley, T., Schlegal, N., & Wuebbles, D. (2010). Regional climate change projections for Chicago and the U.S. Great Lakes. Journal of Great

Lakes Research, 36, 7-21.Hondzo M, and Stefan HG. 1991: Three case studies of lake temperature and stratification response to warmer climate. Water Resources Research, 27(8), 1837-1846.Horstmeyer, SL. 2008. Relative humidity . . . Relative to what? The dew point temperature . . . a better approach. Available online: http://www.shorstmeyer.com/wxfaqs/humidity/humidity.html Karl TR, Melillo JM, and Peterson TC, (eds.) 2009. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press. Available online: http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf Keeling R. 2012. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Available online: scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/ Kemble, et al. 2012. Fatal Naegleria fowleri infection acquired in Minnesota: possible expanded range of a deadly thermophilic organism. Clin Infect Dis. 2012 Mar;54(6):805-9. Epub 2012 Jan 11.Kessler R. 2011. Stormwater Strategies: Cities prepare aging infrastructure for climate change. Environmental Health Perspectives. Vol 119, Num 12.Kling et al. 2003. Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region. Union of Concerned Scientists. Available online: http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/Konikow, L.F., and Kendy, E., 2005, Groundwater depletion: A global problem: Hydrogeology Journal, v. 13, p. 317-320.Kundzewicz ZW, Mata LJ, Arnell NW, Döll P, Kabat P, Jiménez B, Miller KA, Oki T, Sen Z and Shiklomanov IA. 2007. Freshwater resources and their management. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, [Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, and Hanson CE(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, pp. 617-652.Midwestern Regional Climate Center. 2010. Climate Change & Variability in the Midwest. Temperature and Precipitation Trends 1895 – 2010. Available online:http://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/climate_midwest/mwclimate_ change.htm# Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA). 2011a. Blue-green Algae and Harmful Algal Blooms. Available online: http://www.pca.state.mn.us/index.php/water/water-types-and-programs/surface-water/lakes/lake-water-quality/blue-green-algae-and-harmful-algal-blooms.html ___________. 2011b. Floods: Minimizing Pollution and Health Risks. Available online: http://www.pca.state.mn.us/index.php/waste/waste-and-cleanup/cleanup-programs-and-topics/cleanup-programs/emergency-response/floods-minimizing-pollution-and-health-risks.html

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References (cont.)

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Minnesota Public Radio (MPR). 2011a. Pagami Creek Fire in BWCA now estimated at 100,000 acres. Available online:http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2011/09/13/pagami-fire-60000-acres-evacuations-underway/ __________. 2011b. Crazy record! Highest dew point ever at MSP Airport (82!). Available online:http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/updraft/archive/2011/07/another_48_hours_of_relentless.shtml Monson, Bruce. 2009. Trend Reversal of Mercury Concentrations in Piscivorous Fish from Minnesota Lakes: 1982#2006. Environ. Sci. Technol., 43 (6), 1750-1755. Morel FMM, Kraepiel AML, and Amyot M. 1998: The chemical cycle and bioaccumulation of mercury. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 29, 543-566.National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). 2005. What’s the Difference Between Weather and Climate? Available online: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa/climate/climate_weather.html National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). 2006. Climate of Minnesota. Available online: http://cdo.ncdc.noaa.gov/climatenormals/clim60/states/Clim_MN_01.pdf National Parks Service. 2010. What is Climate Change? Available online: http://www.nps.gov/goga/naturescience/climate-change-causes.htm National Weather Service (NWS). 2011. Heat: A Major Killer. Available online: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/heat/index.shtml __________________. 2012. Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook. Available online: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 2011. National Climactic Data Center, Storm Event Database. Available online: http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwEvent~Storms Noji EK. Natural disaster. Crit Care Clim 1991; 14:27-92.Ohl CA and Tapsell S. 2000. Flooding and human health. BMJ 2000;321:1167Santer BD, Thorne PW, Haimberger L, Taylor KE, Wigley TML, Lanzante JR, Solomon S, Free M, Gleckler PJ, Jones PD, Karl TR, Klein SA, Mears C, Nychka D, Schmidt

GA, Sherwood SC, and Wentz FJ. 2008. Consistency of modeled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. International Journal of Climatology, 28(13), 1703-1722.

Seeley M. 2012. Climate Trends and Climate Change in Minnesota: A Review. Minnesota State Climatology Office. Available online: http://climate.umn.edu/seeley/ Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Alley RB, Berntsen T, Bindoff NL, Chen Z, Chidthaisong A, Gregory JM, Hegerl GC, Heimann M, Hewitson B, Hoskins BJ, Joos F, Jouzel J,

Kattsov V, Lohmann U, Matsuno T, Molina M, Nicholls N, Overpeck J, Raga G, Ramaswamy V, Ren J, Rusticucci M, Somerville R, Stocker TF, Whetton P, Wood RA and Wratt D. 2007. Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M and Miller HL (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS). Data downloaded April 2012. Available online: http://webra.cas.sc.edu/hvri/products/sheldus.aspx State Climatology Office. Department of Natural Resources – Division of Ecological and Water Resources and the University of Minnesota – Department of Soil, Water, and Climate. Available online: http://climate.umn.edu/

Drought Information Resources (http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/drought_ information_resources.htm)Dew Point (http://climate.umn.edu/doc/twin_cities/mspdewpoint.htm)Dew Point July 19, 2011 Technical Analysis (http://climate.umn.edu/pdf/july_19_2011_ technical.pdf)

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References (cont.)

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State Climatology Office (cont.)Drought 1988 (http://climate.umn.edu/pdf/drought88.pdf)Drought 2011 (http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/drought_2011.htm)Flash Floods (http://climate.umn.edu/doc/flashflood.htm)Heavy Rainfall 2010 (http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/flash_floods/ff100924.htm)Historic Lake Ice-Out Dates (http://climate.umn.edu/doc/ice_out/ice_out_historical.htm)Minnesota State-Averaged Annual Precipitation Trends: 1891-2010 (http://climate.umn.edu/ doc/online_resources.htm

Trenberth, K. E., J. T. Fasullo, and J. Mackaro. 2011: Atmospheric moisture transports from ocean to land and global energy flows in reanalyses. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4171.1

University of Minnesota Water Resources Center. 2011. Minnesota Water Sustainability Framework. Available online:http://wrc.umn.edu/prod/groups/cfans/@pub/@cfans/@wrc/documents/asset/cfans_asset _292471.pdf US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA). 2011. Agriculture and Food Supply. Available online: http://epa.gov/climatechange/effects/agriculture.html US Forest Service Incident Information System. 2011. Pagami Creek Fire. Available online: http://www.inciweb.org/incident/2534/ US Geological Survey (USGS). 1991. National Water Summary 1988-89: Hydrologic Events and Floods and Droughts. Available online:http://climate.umn.edu/pdf/minnesota_floods_and_drought.pdf ________. 2012. The Water Cycle, a Quick Summary. (website). Accessed online May 2012: http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/watercyclehi.html US National Hazard Statistics. 2012. Accessed 7/30/2012. Available online: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml Water on the Web: http://www.waterontheweb.org/index.htmlWestern Regional Climate Center. (WRCC) 2011a. Minnesota Temperature 1890 – 2010: 12 month period ending in December. Generated online November 2011.

Available online: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/spi/divplot1map.html ________. 2011b. Minnesota Precipitation 1890 – 2010: 12 month period ending in December. Generated online November 2011. Available online: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/spi/divplot1map.html Williamson CE, Saros JE, and Schindler DW. 2009: Sentinels of change. Science, 323(5916), 887-888.World Health Organization (WHO). 2010. Climate change and health. Fact sheet N°266. Available online: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs266/en/Zandlo, Jim 2008. Observing the climate. Minnesota State Climatology Office. Available online: http://climate.umn.edu/climateChange/climateChangeObservedNu.htm

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Photo Credits Slide 4: Photograph by Chaïna Bapikee Slide 7: Images from Microsoft Clip Art Slide 12: Images from Microsoft Clip Art Slide 15: Images from Microsoft Clip Art Slide 19: Images from Microsoft Clip Art Slide 25: KEYC Television Slide 26: Photograph by Sam Choo, available at http://

minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/updraft/archive/2011/07/another_48_hours_of_relentless.shtml

Slide 29: Photograph by Patsy Lynch/FEMA, August 23, 2007 Stockton Slide 30: Left image from Rachel Agurkis, Right image from Derek Montgomery for MPR Slide 31: Photograph by Ed Edahl/FEMA, May 14, 2009 Oslo Slide 32: Image of salmonella from Wikipedia, available at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salmonella Slide 33: Photograph credit - Kathy Blair & Jeffrey P. Davis, MD Wisconsin Division of Public Health Slide 34: Photograph by Gettyimages Slide 35: Image by Tildology, available at http://tildology.com/2011/07/19/misery-index-weather-wise/ Slide 36: The Weather Channel 2011 Slide 38: Top image from AFP/Getty Images (provided by Peter Synder, UMN) Slide 39: Left photograph DNR, right photograph by Chaïna Bapikee Slide 42: Photograph by Kate Houston Slide 43: Image from Microsoft Clip Art Slide 45: Photograph of blue-green algae, Source: MPCA Slide 47: Image of mosquito from Wikipedia, available at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosquito Slide 48: Image of zebra mussels from MN DNR, available at

http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/invasives/aquaticanimals/zebramussel/index.html Slide 50: Top image from Pam Blixt, City of Minneapolis; bottom image from Microsoft Clip Art Slide 51: Image of culvert from Wikipedia, available at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culvert

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