washington dc sabr -- giacalone

Baseball’s Lost Generation:

Anthony Anthony Giacalone Giacalone

The Profound Effect

of the Great Depression on Baseball in the

1960s

Baseball’s Baseball’s Youth Youth

MovementMovementDespite the fact that nearly every team in the big leagues was engaged in a “youth movement,” virtually no one noted that the

both leagues had grown noticeably

younger during the 1960s. In fact, by 1970, 22 of the 24

teams were younger than the league’s

average age in 1959.

The Sporting News, Nov. 5, 1966

Baseball Digest, Feb. 1975

Baseball Digest, July 1968

Demographics and BaseballDemographics and Baseball

Long range demographic changes in the U.S. population dramatically affected the way that baseball was played in the 1960s.

The “Baby Bust” and the “Baby Boom”The “Baby Bust” and the “Baby Boom”Total US Births

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

4500000

1909

1913

1917

1921

1925

1929

1933

1937

1941

1945

1949

1953

1957

1961

1965

1969

Live

Birt

hs

Changes in the nation’s fertility rate, the Great Depression and the Second World War formed an 18-year crater in the nation’s total number of live

births. Beginning in 1947, however, the U.S. began a nearly 20-year period of

abnormally high birth rate and total number of births.

Average Number of Plate Appearance by Year of Average Number of Plate Appearance by Year of BirthBirth

PAs by Birth Year

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1920

1922

1924

1926

1928

1930

1932

1934

1936

1938

1940

1942

1944

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

Players born before the Great Depression could only anticipate a career of about 9000 plate appearances. In contrast players born toward the end of

the Baby Boom would enjoy careers that averaged nearly twice as long.

Average Career Length in Years by Year of BirthAverage Career Length in Years by Year of Birth

Due to expansion and other factors, a higher average number of plate Due to expansion and other factors, a higher average number of plate appearances did not equate to a greater career length. Players born appearances did not equate to a greater career length. Players born

between 1940 and 1964 enjoyed the longest average career lengths for all between 1940 and 1964 enjoyed the longest average career lengths for all players born between 1920 and 1970.players born between 1920 and 1970.

Avg Career Length by Birth Year

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

1920

1922

1924

1926

1928

1930

1932

1934

1936

1938

1940

1942

1944

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

# Yr

s

Rushed to the Majors?Rushed to the Majors?

Players born between 1933 and 1958 made their major league debuts at a younger age than any other cohort in major league history. Particularly notable are the players born from 1938–1953 who, as a group, debuted

nearly a year and half sooner than their counterparts who were born in 1920 or in 1970.

Av era ge Age a t M LB Debut

22.5

27.5

19 20 1 921 1 922 1 923 192 4 1 925 192 6 19 27 1 928 19 29 1 930 1931 1 932 193 3 1 934 1 935 193 6 193 7 1 938 193 9 194 0 19 41 19 42 194 3 19 44 1 945 194 6 1947 194 8 19 49 1 950 19 51 195 2 195 3 19 54 19 55 195 6 19 57 19 58 1 959 19 60 19 61 1 962 1 963 19 64 196 5 1 966 19 67 196 8 1 969 197 0

Birth Year

Debu

t Age

Average Age at MLB Debut

22.5

23.0

23.5

24.0

24.5

25.0

25.5

Birth Year

Deb

ut A

ge

Average Age, MLB players (weighted by PA/BFP)Average Age, MLB players (weighted by PA/BFP)

The average age of all major league players dropped from almost 30 years old in 1946 to a 1970 low of just over 27 years before climbing back to over

29 years old in the 1980s.

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

29.0

29.5

30.0

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

While the whole league grew younger from the mid-1950s to the late-1970s, young pitchers led the charge.

Age by Role

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

29.0

29.5

30.0

Avg

Age

Batters Pitchers

The Era of the Young PitcherThe Era of the Young Pitcher

In 1969, 80% of the league was age-30 or younger.

% of MLB Players by Age

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Year

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 3536 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

Major League Baseball’s Changing DemographicsMajor League Baseball’s Changing Demographics

Major League Baseball’s Changing DemographicsMajor League Baseball’s Changing Demographics% of MLB Players by Age Group

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1946

1947

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

under 20 Age 20-22 Age 22-25 Age 26-29 Age 30-33 Age 34-37 over 37

In every year from 1964-1978 (except 1973), over 70% of major league baseball players were younger than 30 years old.

% of PA/BFP by Age Group

0.0000.0020.0040.0060.0080.0100.0120.0140.016

Year

%

under 20


0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45

Year

%

under 20

Did Young’uns Skew the League’s Average Age?Did Young’uns Skew the League’s Average Age?

Whatever caused the drop in average league age, only a very small part of it was due to an influx of very young players. Further, there seems to be no trend toward very young players, as most of the playing time by young players can be attributed to the Bonus Baby rules of 1954-1964. Most of the rest of the “blips” are outliers

caused by the rise of a very young superstar (Kaline in ‘54, Dierker in ’65-’66, Yount in ’74-’75, Gooden in ‘84)


0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45

Year

%

under 20 20-22

Growing Influence of College-Age PlayersGrowing Influence of College-Age Players

The increasing share of playing time given to 20-22 year old players represents a important factor in the baseball’s turn youth movement.


0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45

Year

%

under 20 20-22 23-25

The Dominance of “Pre-peak” Players.The Dominance of “Pre-peak” Players.

The most important factor in the major league’s trend toward youthfulness was the new-found trust that ball clubs put in their pre-peak players.


0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45

Year

%

under 20 20-22 23-25 26-29

The Consistency of Peak Age PlayersThe Consistency of Peak Age Players

For nearly the whole of the 50-year period from 1946-1985, peak-age players contributed 35% to 40% of all playing time.


0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45

Year

%

under 20 20-22 23-25 26-29 30-33

““Don’t Trust Anyone Over 30”Don’t Trust Anyone Over 30”

Once considered to be in the prime of their careers, players between the ages of 30-33 saw their share of playing time decrease from about 30% before 1950 to just 20% from the early-1960s to the late-

1970s.


0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45

Year

%

under 20 20-22 23-25 26-29 30-33 34-37

The Decline and Rise of the Declining PlayersThe Decline and Rise of the Declining Players

A meaningful contributor of plate appearances (~10%) before 1960, players aged 34-37 would have to wait twenty year to see their share

restored. The nadir of their importance, from 1968 to 1971, coincides exactly with

the low-water mark in total U.S. births.


-0.01

0.01

0.03

0.05

0.07

0.09

0.11

0.13

0.15

Year

%

under 20 34-37 over 37


0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45

Year

%

under 20 20-22 23-25 26-29 30-33 34-37 over 37

Ironies of Baseball’s Elderly from 1960-185Ironies of Baseball’s Elderly from 1960-185

The expansion of 1961-1962 gave new life to a generation of middle-aged ball players, but it did nothing for baseball’s elderly. Ironically, it was those players that most benefited from baseball’s turn toward youth in the 1960s

that also benefited from its desire to hold onto the past in the 1980s.

Young Players, Prime Players and Old PlayersYoung Players, Prime Players and Old PlayersPAs/BFP by Major Age Group

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

%


Breaking the graph into three parts helps bring clarity the youth phenomenon in the 1960s.

Young Players, Prime Players and Old PlayersYoung Players, Prime Players and Old Players

While a larger share of playing time went to younger hitters from 1961 to 1979, the annual share of young players was erratic. After 1980 older hitters

reaped the lion share of plate appearances in baseball.

PA by Major Age Group

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

%


Young Players, Prime Players and Old PlayersYoung Players, Prime Players and Old Players

In contrast to their bat-wielding counterparts, young pitchers shared playing time equally with pitchers in their prime for nearly twenty years after 1961

before retreating to historical norms after 1980.

BFP by Major Age Group

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

%


Average Age of A-ball Players, 1946-1985Average Age of A-ball Players, 1946-1985Average Batters Age (A)

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27A

vg A

ge

Average Pitchers Age (A)

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

Avg

Age

CAL CAR FSL MWL SAL WCL

Average Age of AA-ball Players, 1946-1985Average Age of AA-ball Players, 1946-1985Average Batters Age (AA)

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29A

vg A

ge

Average Pitchers Age (AA)

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

Avg

Age

EAS SOU TEX

Average Age of AAA-ball Players, 1946-1985Average Age of AAA-ball Players, 1946-1985

Average Pitchers Age (AAA)

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

Avg

Age

AA IL PCL

Average Batters Age (AAA)

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

Avg

Age

Avg MiLB Batters Age

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Average Age of Minor League Players, 1946-1985Average Age of Minor League Players, 1946-1985

Avg MiLB Pitchers Age

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

AAA AA A # MiLB Tms

In part, to fill the void left by decreasing numbers of American-born boys, Latinos became a significant percentage of MLB population in the 1960s.

The Growing Influence of Latinos in the 1960sThe Growing Influence of Latinos in the 1960s Percentage of Latino PA/BFP by Year

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

%

Overall % PA/BFP

Includes all players born in Mexico, Cuba, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Panama and the Virgin Islands.

The percentage of Latinos in MLB did not increase uniformly, however. Batters played a much more significant role than pitchers.

The Growing Influence of Latinos in the 1960sThe Growing Influence of Latinos in the 1960s Percentage of Latino PA/BFP by Year

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

%

Overall % PA/BFP % PAs by Batters % BFP by Pitchers

Includes all players born in Mexico, Cuba, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Panama and the Virgin Islands.

Avg. Age of Hitters and Pitchers and Avg. Age of Hitters and Pitchers and Total Births Ratio of Peak PlayersTotal Births Ratio of Peak Players

Age by Role

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

29.0

29.5

30.0

Avg

Age

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Births / PA Ratio

Batters Pitchers Male Births / PA Ratio

By looking at the birth year of each season’s peak players (age 26-29), one can discern an interesting correlation between the total number of births

and the age of the major leagues a generation later.

Baby Bust, Baby Boom and Level of CompetitionBaby Bust, Baby Boom and Level of Competition

The old timers were right! Factoring in the number players born in each year and the total number of plate appearances needed to fill the major leagues, the level of competition was at its lowest level from 1933 to 1946. Players

born before 1929 and from 1951 to 1965 had to compete with more American players for their jobs.

Bi rt h Year Pressur e

500

1000

1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970

Birth Year Pressure

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1920

1922

1924

1926

1928

1930

1932

1934

1936

1938

1940

1942

1944

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

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