War and Peace

Sources of World War IV Ethnopolitical conflicts Problems of transition to capitalism The North-South gap Competition for resources (energy, water, food) The ecological crisis Terrorism Interstate rivalries, economic and political The emergence of radical Islamist ideologies 9/11 as the “tipping point” to World War IV

The US acts as the hegemonic power Radical Islam and “rogue states” are in the role of

“the enemy” Promotion of liberal democracy “The unipolar moment” Unilateralism vs. multilateralism Determination to preserve US hegemony Rivals: rising centres of global power

EU China, India Brazil and others Russia

Use of force is becoming more frequent and larger in scale: invasions, terrorist attacks

The new concept of “preventive war” Militarization of outer space Dismantling of arms control, proliferation of nukes The danger that nuclear weapons may be used is

considered higher than in the Cold War New hi-tech weapons The war in people’s minds: ideas and beliefs,

religion A new culture of war?

"This fourth world war, I think, will last considerably longer than either World Wars I or II did for us. Hopefully not the full four-plus decades of the Cold War.“ – James Woolsey,

former Director of CIA*

*http://edition.cnn.com/2003/US/04/03/sprj.irq.woolsey.world.war

Global conflict map http://maps.maplecroft.com/loadma

p?template=min&issueID=2&close=y

THE WORLD’S MILITARY FORCES

20,000 nuclear weapons

120,000 battle tanks

35,000 combat aircraft

1,500 major warships

Over 23 million under arms (regular and irregular armies)

including 0.5 million women

and 0.2 million children under 15

USA 10,455

RF 8,400

China 400

France 350

Israel*** 250

UK 200

India*** 65

Pakistan*** 40

North Korea*** 8

Total 20,168

The World’s Nuclear Weapons, 2004 (data from Nuclear Threat Initiative)

*** Estimates

“The Long War” Guardian | America's Long War US Nuclear Primacy Foreign Affairs - The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy

- Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press

The patterns of war, early 21st century:

Mostly in the Global South -

even though most military preparations are in the North

Mostly within states, not between states

Casualties overwhelmingly civilian

Terrorism a widely used weapon

The threat of WMD use

The potential for escalation and spread

The era of global warfare has not ended: it has merely entered its next stage

The dialectics of integration and conflict in world politics Conflict and integration are inseparable from each other Integration has generated new conflicts They are undermining integration Will conflicts converge to produce large-scale warfare on

global scale? At what level of conflict will the world achieve more viable

and humane forms of integration?

Do we have alternatives to escalation?

See Kofi Annan’s report “In Larger Freedom”:

Report - Table of Contents

And UN Secretary-General’s High-level Panel’s report “A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility” :

Report of the Secretary-General's High-level Panel

A new global security consensus is needed The UN was created in 1945 as a collective

security organization – To prevent states from waging aggressive wars on

other states It was understood that peace and security would

require: facilitating socioeconomic development and protection of human rights

• SECURITY

• DEVELOPMENT

• HUMAN RIGHTS

–are inseparable

“Sixty years later, we know all too well that the biggest security threats we face now, and in the decades ahead, go far beyond States waging aggressive war…

…The threats are from non-state actors as well as States, and to human security as well as State security”.

From “A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility”

Examples of mutual insecurity Northern troubles – southern consequences

World Bank estimates: the attacks of 9/11 increased the number of

world poor by 10 milliontotal cost to the world economy – $80 bln.

Southern troubles – northern consequences9/11SARSH5N1 (Bird Flu)

“Six clusters of threats” Socioeconomic threats, including

poverty infectious disease environmental degradation

Inter-state conflict Internal conflict, including

Civil war Genocide Other large-scale atrocities

Proliferation and possible use of weapons of mass destruction nuclear radiological chemical biological

Terrorism Transnational organized crime

The “front line actors” to assure security – Individual sovereign states But they must act collectively – individually, they

cannot do the job The threats are transnational No state is invulnerable And an individual state may not be “able, or willing,

to meet its responsibility to protect its own peoples and not to harm its neighbours”

“What is needed today is nothing less than a new consensus between alliances that are frayed, between wealthy nations and poor, and among people mired in mistrust across an apparently widening cultural abyss. The essence of that consensus is simple: we all share responsibility for each other’s security. And the test of that consensus will be action.”

The primary challenge - PREVENTION How to prevent security threats from rising: DEVELOPMENT If successful -

Improves living conditions Builds state capacities Creates an environment which makes war less likely

But what if prevention fails? Conditions for legitimate use of force Article 51 and Chapter VII of the UN Charter They need no changes, but they must be used

more effectively Build a consensus on guidelines 5 guidelines:

Seriousness of threat Proper purpose Last resort Proportional means Balance of consequences

Other major issues arising during and after violent conflict: Needed capacities for peace enforcement: all

countries must contribute resources Peace-keeping Peace-building Protection of civilians

A more effective UN Revitalize the General Assembly Reform and make more effective the Security

Council (decision-making and contributions) Give attention, policy guidance and resources to

countries under stress, in conflict, and emerging from conflict

Security Council must work more closely with regional organizations

Institutions to address social and economic threats to international security

Create a more potent international body for the protection of human rights