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Pennsylvaniaisnowtheworststateinthenationforhighereducation,sunkbystudents’highdebtatgraduationandthestate’shightuitionandfees.

USNewsandWorldReport

“RuralAmericaistheNew‘InnerCity’:AWallStreetJournalanalysisshowsthatsincethe1990s,sparselypopulationruralareashavereplacedlargecitiesasAmerica’smosttroubledareasbykeymeasuresof

socioeconomicwell-being–adeclinethat’saccelerating.”

WallStreetJournal,May30,2017https://www.wsj.com/articles/rural-america-is-the-new-inner-city-1495817008

ExecutiveSummaryPennsylvania’spublicfour-yearcollegescurrentlyconfrontafundingandenrollmentcrisis,withthreeofthemostdistressedUniversitiesinnorthernandwesternPennsylvaniaregionsthatlackcommunitycolleges.ThiscrisispresentsPennsylvania,anditsstatelegislators:dotheywanttocontinuethepoliciesofthepastthreedecades,whichhavemassivelyunderfundedpost-secondaryeducation,particularlyinruralPennsylvania?OrdotheywanttousethecrisisoftheStateSystemasawake-upcall–areasontoaddressthestate’spost-secondaryeducationdeficit,andavitalsteptoavoidingadownwardspiralformanyofPennsylvania’sruralareas?Thisbriefarguesthatlawmakersshouldtakethelattercourse.Ourprevioustwobriefsonhighereducationdocumented(1)theimportanceofpublicuniversitiestoupwardmobilityinPennsylvania;and(2)theinadequacyofstatefundingandtheimpactofthisontuitionandenrollmentatStateSystemschools.1ThisbriefexaminesdemographictrendsandthegeographyofeducationalattainmentandcollegeaccessinPennsylvania.DemographictrendsandStateSystemenrollment.IntheUnitedStates,thenumberofhighschoolgraduatesfellafter2009oncemostofthechildrenofbabyboomers–the“echoboom”–lefthighschool.Pennsylvaniaexperiencedasharperfallinthenumberofhigh-schoolgraduatesthanthenation,especiallyinwesternandruralpartsofthestate.Acrossall14campusesoftheStateSystem,thepercentfallinenrollmentsince2009roughlyequalsthepercentdropinthenumberofhighschoolstudentsinallofPennsylvania.Withinthe14schoolsoftheStateSystem,significantvariationexists:

• Atfournorth-centralandwesternPennsylvaniaUniversities(California,Clarion,Edinboro,andMansfield)wherefacultywerenotifiedthisspringthattheircontractsmightendafterthe2017-18schoolyear,enrollmentdropped(inpercent)byabitmorethantwicethenumberofhigh-schoolgraduatesinnearbycountiesandothergeographicalareasservedbytheseschools.

• Atnineschoolswherefacultyreceivednonotices–manyoftheminfastergrowingsoutheasternandsouthcentralPennsylvaniawhichfacedsmalldropsinthenumberofhigh-schoolstudents–enrollment(inpercent)droppedbyhalfthefallinthenumberofhighschoolgraduatesinareasservedbytheseschools.

• AthistoricallyblackCheneyUniversity,enrollmentplungedbymorethanhalf.Thefiveschoolsatwhichenrollmentdroppedmore(inpercent)thanthenumberofhighschoolgraduatesallcaterheavilytomoderate-andlow-incomestudents.Thisprovidesmoreevidencethatrisingcostshavepricedtheseuniversitiesbeyondanincreasingnumberofworkingfamilies.Sincethe

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areasorcommunitiesthatthesefiveschoolsservedonothavemany(insomecases,any)alternativeaffordablenearbycolleges,notgoingtoStateSystemschoolmaymeannotgoingtocollegeatall.ThegeographyofeducationalattainmentandcollegeaccessinPennsylvania.ReducedcollegeattendancebecauseoflackofaccesstoaffordablehighereducationthreatenstodrivePennsylvania’salreadyloweducationalattainmentevenlower,especiallyinruralgeographicalareaswhereitislowest.

• Pennsylvaniaranks40thfortheshareofadults25-64withmorethanahigh-schooldegree.• Whilethisshareexceedstwothirds(67%)infourcounties(Allegheny,Bucks,Chester,and

Montgomery),InoverhalfofPennsylvaniacounties(35),thisshareislowerthananyofthe50states(i.e.,lowerthanWestVirginia’s48.1%).

• Underthestatusquo,loweducationalattainmentislikelytopersistbecauselowsharesofPennsylvaniahigh-schoolstudentsconsidercollege(asmeasuredbytheshareofhigh-schoolgraduateswhofilloutformsrequiredtoreceivefederalfinancialaid).ThecontrastbetweenPennsylvania’snortherntierandthesimilarlyruralsoutherntierofNewYorkisstriking:countiesinNewYorktypicallyhavinga5-25percentagepointhighershareofstudentsfillingoutfinancialaidforms(Figure9).

Wheredowegofromhere?HowshouldthestaterespondtowhattheNationalCenterforHigherEducationManagementSystems(NCHEMS)callsthe“twinchallenges”facedbyPennsylvania’sStateSystemofHigherEducation–statefinancialsupportanddemographicdecline?2NCHEMSitselfdoesnotrecommendclosingordownsizinganyoftheStateSystemschools.Weagree.SignificantpartsofruralPennsylvaniaarealreadya“highereducationdesert”accordingtoarecentacademicanalysis.ReducingaccesstoStateSystemschoolswouldincreasethesizeofthisdesert,furthercompromisingopportunityforindividualsandundercuttingruraleconomies.Pennsylvaniahassomebreathingspacetochartadifferencecoursebecausedemographicdeclineslowssomewhatoverthenextdecade.Inthisbreathingspace,PennsylvaniamustincreaseitsinvestmentintheStateSystemaspartofamoreintegratedpublicpost-secondaryeducationsystem.Thisshouldincludestatewideaccesstocommunitycolleges,moreintegrationofpost-secondaryeducationandwork-basedlearningthatdeliverbothcollegecreditandindustry-recognizedcredentials(suchasapprenticeships),andmoreaffordableaccesstoStateSystemschools.Partofthemoneyforamoreintegratedpublichighereducationsystemcouldcomefromfederalfinancialassistance:Pennsylvaniadrawsdown$202millionlessinits“share”offederalPellgrantsforattendingcollege(basedonPennsylvania’sshareoftheU.S.youngadultsmostlikelytoattendcollege).OurnextbriefwillpresentmoredetailsonapolicyproposalforinvestinginPennsylvaniapost-secondaryeducation.Thisbrief,andtheprevioustwo,establishtheneedforsuchapolicyproposal.

WesternPennsylvania’s1980sDeclineReducesBirthRatesinthe1990sItiswidelyknownthatPennsylvania’spopulationgrowsslowly.Inthe1980s,ahorrificdecadeforthestateeconomically,thestate’spopulationdidnotincreaseatall(Figure1).3InthewesternhalfofthestateandinandaroundwesternPennsylvaniaStateSystemcampuses,thepopulationdeclined–byasmuchassixtosevenpercentagepointsinasingledecadenearCaliforniaUniversityofPennsylvania,SlipperyRockandIndianaUniversity.ThewesternPennsylvaniapopulationofwomenofchild-bearingagelikelydeclinedbyalargerpercentage,asyoungadultshavegreatermobilitythanoldercohorts.

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Figure1.

IntheUnitedStates,birthratesdroppedinthe1990sasthe“echoboom”cametoanend(i.e.,thenumberofchildrenbornebydaughtersofbabyboomersdeclined)(Figure2).4ThebirthrateinPennsylvaniadroppedmoresharply–byabout16percentagepointsfrom1990to1997versussevenpercentagepointsnationally.Alongsideadeclineinthepopulationofwomenofchild-bearingage,thedepressedincomesofwesternPennsylvaniaworkingfamilieslikelyreducedthenumberofPennsylvaniabirthsfurther.

Figure2.

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Early1990sFallinBirthsMeansDecliningNumbersofHighSchoolGraduates18YearsLaterThebirthratetrendsaboveshapedthetrendsinthenumberofhigh-schoolgraduates18yearslater.Figure3showsthenumberofhigh-schoolgraduatesfrom2007-08to2024-25(simplifiedas2008to2025inFigure3)inthesendingregionsoftwogroupsofStateSystemSchools–fourschoolsincentralorruralPennsylvaniawhichreceivedlettersinthespringnotifyingfacultyofpotentiallayoffsafter2017-185andwhichalsohavesimilardemographictrends;andnineotherStateSystemschoolsexcludingCheney.6(AppendixTable1providesmoredetaileddataonindividualcampuses.)WeexcludedCheneybecauseitsdemographicsaredifferentthantheotherfourthreatenedschoolswhileitsenrollmenttrendsaredifferentthantheothernineschools.

Figure3

Figure3tellsthreemainstories:

• BothgroupsofStateSystemcampusesfaceddeclinesinthenumberofhigh-schoolgraduatesintheirsendingareasfrom2009to2015.

• Thefallwaslargerinthesendingareasofthefourthreatenedcampuses.

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• Forbothgroups,thedeclineinthenumberofhigh-schoolgraduatesinsendingareasoverthenextdecadeissmallerthansince2009(e.g.,adropoffourpercentagepointsinnineyearsforthegroupoffourschoolsversus11percentagepointsinsevenyears).

Forthefourthreatenedschoolsasagroup,andthenforthenineotherschools,Figures4and5comparetrendsfrom2007-08to2015-16inthenumberofhigh-schoolgraduates(insendingareas)withtwootherdataseries–thenumberof“college-boundHSgrads”andenrollment.7Incomparingtrendsincollege-boundhigh-schoolgraduatesversustotalhigh-schoolgraduates,keepinmindthatcollegeattendanceis“counter-cyclical,”meaningthatittendstofalloffineconomicrecoveries,suchastheonewehavebeeninsince2009.DellasandSakellarisestimatethattheroughlythreepercentfallinunemploymentinPennsylvaniabetween2009and2015wouldleadtoa1.8%fallinenrollment.8(Acounter-cyclicaldropofthissizewillprovetobeonlyasmallpartoftheenrollmentdropatthefourthreatenedschoolsbutalargepartofthedropattheothernineschools.)Figure4showsthat,forthefourruralthreatenedschools,thedeclineinthenumberofhighschoolgraduatesfromschooldistrictsintheirsendingregionsequalsaboutathirdoftheenrollmentdeclinefrom2009to2015.Thefigurealsoshowsthattherehasbeenalargerdeclineinthenumberofcollege-boundstudentssince2009thaninthenumberofhigh-schoolgraduatesandthatthefallincollege-boundgraduatesmorecloselymatchesthedeclineinenrollment.

Figure4.

Thefallincollege-boundgraduatesinsendingareasofthesefourschoolsisnotsolelyademographic(andcounter-cyclical)phenomenon:itislikelydrivenalsobytherisingcostofStateSystemcampusesthemselves.Thisisespeciallytrueinareasinwhichotherhighereducationofferingsaresparse.

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Mansfield,Clarion,andEdinboroUniversitiesareallsituatedinablockof24contiguouscountiesinnorthernPAthatdonothavecommunitycolleges.WashingtonCounty,whereCaliforniaislocated,onlyhasaccesstoabranchcampusthatoffersout-of-districttuition.ThefewprivatecollegesinruralnorthernandwesternPennsylvaniadonothavetheresourcestogivesignificantportionsofthelocalpopulationfinancialaid.Thus,thedropinthenumberofcollege-boundstudentsinthesendingregionsofthefourthreatenedschoolsmayreflectthefactthatthepriceofStateSystemschoolsisrisingbeyondthereachofagrowingshareofareafamilies.TheoverallconclusionbasedonFigure4(andthecostanalysisinourpreviousbrief)isthatdemographicfactorsarepartoftheenrollmentchallengefacedbytheseschools,butcostisalsoafactor.Figure5showsthattheninenon-threatenedStateSystemschoolshaveseenenrollmentfallingslowerthanthenumberofhigh-schoolgraduatesandcollege-boundstudentsintheirsendingregions.Enrollment(inpercent)hasdeclinedbyabouthalfasmuchasthenumberofhigh-schoolgraduatesandathirdasmuchasthenumberofcollege-boundstudents.Acrossall14StateSystemschoolsasagroupenrollmenttrendsmirrorthoseinthenumberofhigh-schoolstudentsandenrollmenthasfallenbylessthanthenumberofcollege-boundstudents.

Figure5

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ManyPartsofNorthernPennsylvaniaAreAlreadyaHigherEducationDesertTwoadditionalpiecesofcontexttokeepinmindwhenconsideringthefutureoftheStateSystemaretheavailabilityofotheraffordablepost-secondaryoptionsandeducationalattainment.Figure6showscommunitycollegeaccessinPennsylvania:

• 28countieshavenocommunitycollegeinstructionalsite;• 22countieshaveoneormore“instructionalsites”atwhichresidentsofthecountymustpay

“non-resident”(i.e.,double)tuition;• Inonly17countiesdostudentshaveaccesstoacampusatwhichtheycanpay“sponsoring

county”tuition.

Figure6.CommunityCollegesandInstructionalSitesinPennsylvania

Source.GingerStulletal.,“CollegeAffordabilityinPA:HowDidWeGetHere,andWhatCanBeDone?”ResearchforAction,November2016,Figure11,p.16;thissourcecitesPACommissionforCommunityCollegesFebruary2016.WehavearequestouttothePACommissionforupdatedinformation.

Reflectingthislackofaccess,theLegislativeBudgetandFinanceCommitteefoundthatadozencountieshadlessthan10full-timestudentsenrolledatanyPennsylvaniacommunitycollegeinthefallof2010.9Togivethepopulationofsomeruralcountiesmoreaccesstocommunitycollege,thelegislature,ledbyRepresentativeScarnatiprovidedinAct78,the2014FiscalCodebill,fortheestablishmentofaruralcommunitycollegespanningmultiplecounties.10Figure1(p.9)oftheNCHEMreporttotheStateSystem(citedinfootnote3)showsalldegree-grantingpost-secondaryinstitutionsinPennsylvania.ThemapshowsthatMansfieldhasnootherpost-secondaryinstitutionnearby;ClarionhasoneotherandEdinboroseveralothers,butthecountiesofboththeseClarionandErie,andofMansfield(TiogaCounty),havenoaccesstocommunitycollege.Therearealso

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nootherhighereducationinstitutionsshowninWashingtonCounty,whereCaliforniaUniversityislocated,althoughtherearemanyofferingsinneighboringAlleghenyCounty.ThedearthofaccessibleeducationinPennsylvaniahasledHillmanandWeichman(2016)tolabel15countiesincentral,northern,andwesternPAas“educationdeserts”,areaswhere“collegeopportunitiesareliterallyfewandfarbetween.11Threeofthesecounties,Venango,Warren,andBradford,areadjacenttocountieswithathreatenedStateSystemUniversity.FurtherrestrictingtheaccessibilityorofferingsatStateSystemUniversitieswouldfurtherconstrictthehighereducationopportunitiesavailabletomanyruralPennsylvanians.Thedearthofaffordable,accessiblehighereducationoptionshelpsexplaintheeducationalattainmentprofileofPennsylvania.Pennsylvaniahasahighshareofadults25-64whohaveahigh-schooldegreebutNOpostsecondaryeducationatall.Asaresult,eventhoughthestateranksinthemiddlefortheshareofadultswithatleastahigh-schooldegree,thestateranks40thforthesharewithmorethanahigh-schooleducation(Figure7).

Figure7.

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Furthermore,thereissignificantvariationineducationalattainmentwithinPennsylvania.Whilethisshareexceedstwothirds(67%)infourcounties(Allegheny,Bucks,Chester,andMontgomery),InoverhalfofPennsylvaniacounties(35),thisshareislowerthananyofthe50states(i.e.,lowerthanWestVirginia’s48.1%)(Figure8).

Figure8.

Whilesomeoftheexplanationforloweducationalattainmentmaybeculturalandhistorical–reflectingthefactthatmen(especially)couldhistoricallysupportafamilybyworkingmanufacturingjobsthatdidnotrequiremorethanahighschooleducation–lackofaccessalsoseemsalikelycontributingfactor.Lookingforward,underthestatusquo,loweducationalattainmentislikelytopersistbecauselowsharesofPennsylvaniahigh-schoolstudentsconsidergoingtocollege(asmeasuredbytheshareofhigh-schoolgraduateswhofilloutformsrequiredtoreceivefederalfinancialaid)(Figure9).ThecontrastbetweenPennsylvania’snortherntierandthesimilarlyruralsoutherntierofNewYorkisstriking:NewYorkcountiestypicallyhavinga5to25percentagepointshighershareofstudentsfillingoutfinancialaidforms.

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Figure9.

Source.https://studentaid.ed.gov/sa/about/data-center/student/application-volume/fafsa-completion-high-school;selectPennsylvaniaonthedrop-downmenuandthendownload

SinceasmallshareofPennsylvaniastudentsapplyforfederalfinancialassistancetoattendcollege,PennsylvaniadrawsdownfewerPellgrantscomparedtootherstates.Table2showsthatifPennsylvaniadrewdownacomparableshareofthePellgrantfundsthatallstatesandtheDistrictofColumbiadrawdownasashareofthepopulation19-34,itwouldaccessanother$201.6million.Ourpublicinstitutionsofhighereducationarethereasonwedrawdownlessthanourshare:Pennsylvaniareceives$273.2millionlessinPellgrantstopublicinstitutionsthatitwouldifitreceivedanamountbasedonourshareoftheU.S.19-34population.Table2.PennsylvaniaDrawdownofPellGrantFundsComparedtoStateShareofPopulation19-34

(expendituresinmillionsofdollars) PUBLIC PRIVATE PROPRIETARY TOTAL

TotalRecip-ients

TotalExpend-itures

TotalRecip-ients

TotalExpend-itures

TotalRecip-ients

TotalExpend-itures

TotalRecip-ients

TotalExpend-itures

PAPellGrantRecipientsandExpenditures 139,073 $493.9 71,174 $285.5 48,663 $169.8 258,910 $949.2PAShareofPellGrantFunding2014-15

2.5% 2.4% 5.9% 6.0% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%

IncreaseifPAReceivedSameasItsShareofU.S.19-34Population2015

71,040 $273.2 -$25,877 -$106.9 8,414 $35.4 53,577 $201.6

Source.KeystoneResearchCenterbasedonKaiserFamilyFoundationpopulationestimates(usingtheCensusBureau'sMarch2016CurrentPopulationSurvey)andU.S.DepartmentofEducationdatafromTable21afterdownloading"ZipArchive"fromhttps://www2.ed.gov/finaid/prof/resources/data/pell-2014-15/pell-eoy-2014-15.html

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StopAccommodating–andAccelerating–theDeclineofRuralandNorthernPennsylvaniaTheresearchliteratureshowsthathigherlevelsofeducationareassociatedwithhighereconomicoutputandhigherwages–eachone-yearincreaseinaverageeducationisassociatedwitha17-18%increaseinGDPpercapitaandwages.12Highereducationalattainmentalsopowerfullyinfluenceswagesandeconomicopportunityforindividuals,withcollege-educatedworkerstypicallyhavinglowerunemploymentratesthangroupswithlowerlevelsofeducation.Recentdatadocumentthatruralareaswithhighereducationlevels(morethan30%ofadultshavingabachelor’sdegree)grewrapidlyin2016,whileallU.S.ruralareassawtheirpopulationshrinkforthesixthyearinarowin2016by0.4%.13TheWallStreetJournalrecentlyrangaloudalarm,labellingruralareasinAmericathenew“innercity.”Pennsylvania’sruralareashavenothistoricallybeenhighlydistressed(basedonsuchindicatorsaspercapitaincome,unemployment,andpovertyrates):the1980sweredifficultforruralaswellaswesternPennsylvania,buttheregionreboundedsomewhatinthesecondpartofthe1990sandthefirstpartofthe2000s.14Moreover,a2013studydocumentedtherobustupwardmobilityinPennsylvania’sruralareas,withstudentsfromlow-incomefamilieswhograduatedfromhighschoolinthelate1990sfaringwelleconomicallyby2010-11.15Theconcern,however,isthatsomeofthisperformancereflectseconomicassetsthatcontinuetodwindle–suchasnon-collegewagesliftedbyalargemanufacturingsectorandstrongunions,andpublicschoolsoncefundedmoreadequatelybythestate.Inthiscontext,thegradualdefundingofPennsylvaniapublichighereducationplayswithfire.Ifitcontinues–maintainingmuchofruralPennsylvaniaasahighereducationdesert–theregion’seconomicfuturecouldbefatallycompromised.Pennsylvaniaanditslawmakersneedtomakeachoice.WilltheyaddressPennsylvania’shighereducationinvestmentdeficitbeforeit’stoolate?LawmakerswhorepresentruralregionsshouldbeleadingthechargetoreinvestinPennsylvaniahighereducation.Ournextbriefwillexploreoptionsforsuchreinvestment.

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TECHNICALAPPENDIX–DEMOGRAPHICSANDENROLLMENTFORPENNSYLVANIASTATESYSTEMOFHIGHEREDUCATIONSCHOOLS,2008-2025TableA1.DemographicsandEnrollment,Indexedto2009=1

University Group 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Bloomsburg Graduates 1.01 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.98 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.87 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.89 0.89 0.87 0.88 0.88

College-Bound 0.97 1.00 0.91 0.88 0.86 0.86 0.83 0.83 0.84

Enrollment 0.93 1.00 1.06 1.07 1.05 1.06 1.05 1.02

California Graduates 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.98 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.93 0.93 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.87 0.88

College-Bound 0.97 1.00 1.01 0.99 0.98 0.94 0.92 0.89 0.90

Enrollment 0.94 1.00 1.04 1.05 0.95 0.91 0.88 0.87

Cheyney Graduates 0.99 1.00 1.03 1.07 1.11 1.10 1.09 1.07 1.06 1.08 1.07 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.09 1.09 1.11 1.14

College-Bound 0.97 1.00 1.05 1.08 1.06 1.05 1.01 1.00 0.97

Enrollment 1.00 1.00 1.07 0.81 0.86 0.81 0.69 0.48

Clarion Graduates 1.02 1.00 0.99 1.00 0.95 0.97 0.93 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.90 0.89 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.81 0.85 0.83

College-Bound 1.01 1.00 0.97 0.97 0.89 0.92 0.86 0.87 0.81

Enrollment 0.97 1.00 1.00 0.95 0.89 0.83 0.78 0.73

EastStroudsburg Graduates 1.03 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.95 0.93 0.87 0.92 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.85 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.88

College-Bound 1.01 1.00 0.91 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.85 0.81 0.86

Enrollment 0.95 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.92 0.89 0.90 0.90

Edinboro Graduates 1.01 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.97 0.95 0.87 0.89 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.85 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.77 0.81 0.83

College-Bound 1.06 1.00 1.07 0.99 1.00 0.94 0.87 0.86 0.80

Enrollment 0.93 1.00 1.04 1.00 0.90 0.86 0.83 0.79

Indiana Graduates 1.00 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.93 0.91 0.91 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.79 0.79 0.80

College-Bound 0.98 1.00 0.99 0.96 0.92 0.85 0.87 0.82 0.80

Enrollment 0.98 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.02 0.99 0.95

Kutztown Graduates 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.05 1.03 1.03 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.01 1.03 1.04

College-Bound 0.97 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.00 0.96 0.98 0.98

Enrollment 0.98 1.00 1.01 0.97 0.92 0.89 0.87 0.85

LockHaven Graduates 1.03 1.00 1.01 0.98 0.96 0.92 0.93 0.86 0.85 0.87 0.89 0.86 0.82 0.84 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.85

College-Bound 1.02 1.00 0.99 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.86 0.80 0.77

Enrollment 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.92 0.86

Mansfield Graduates 1.02 1.00 1.02 0.95 0.93 0.89 0.90 0.84 0.81 0.84 0.85 0.84 0.81 0.82 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.84

College-Bound 0.97 1.00 0.96 0.89 0.85 0.82 0.81 0.74 0.69

Enrollment 0.96 1.00 0.96 0.92 0.88 0.83 0.77 0.66

Millersville Graduates 0.97 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.06 1.04 1.05 1.02 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.07 1.06 1.07 1.08

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College-Bound 0.96 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.05 1.03 0.97 0.99 0.99

Enrollment 0.99 1.00 1.04 1.04 0.99 0.98 0.95 0.94

SlipperyRock Graduates 1.01 1.00 1.00 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.96 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.85 0.87 0.87

College-Bound 0.97 1.00 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.91 0.88 0.88

Enrollment 0.96 1.00 1.01 0.99 0.94 0.91 0.89 0.85

Shippensburg Graduates 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.96 0.97 0.95 0.95 0.92 0.95 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.95 0.96 0.99

College-Bound 0.99 1.00 1.03 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.98 0.91 0.94

Enrollment 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.01 0.99 0.97 0.98 1.00

WestChester Graduates 0.97 1.00 0.99 1.01 1.05 1.03 1.02 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.02 1.01 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.00 1.03 1.03

College-Bound 0.97 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.03 1.03 0.97 1.00 0.98

Enrollment 0.96 1.00 1.02 1.06 1.08 1.11 1.13 1.17

StateSystem Graduates 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.97 0.96 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.92 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.90 0.91 0.92

College-Bound 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.97 0.96 0.94 0.91 0.89 0.89

Enrollment 0.96 1.00 1.02 1.01 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.92

ThreatenedFive Graduates 1.01 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.96 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.91 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.82 0.85 0.86

College-Bound 1.01 1.00 1.01 0.98 0.95 0.93 0.88 0.86 0.83

Enrollment 0.95 1.00 1.02 0.98 0.91 0.86 0.82 0.77

ThreatenedFour Graduates 1.01 1.00 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.92 0.90 0.89 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.84 0.85

College-Bound 1.01 1.00 1.01 0.97 0.95 0.92 0.88 0.86 0.82

Enrollment 0.95 1.00 1.02 0.99 0.91 0.86 0.82 0.78

Non-Threatened Graduates 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.93 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.92 0.93 0.94

College-Bound 0.98 1.00 0.99 0.97 0.96 0.94 0.92 0.90 0.90

Enrollment 0.97 1.00 1.02 1.02 1.01 0.99 0.98 0.97

Note:College-boundandgraduateaggregatesareweightedbytheenrollmentofeachschoolineachyear.Foryearsschoolsfailedtoreportcollege-boundgraduatestheywereestimated.Enrollmentlevelsreflecttotalenrollment(part-timeandfull-time,undergraduateandgraduate,etc.).Graduateandcollege-boundgraduatenumbersarereportedforspringofthegivenyear,enrollmentforthefallofthegivenyear.

Sources:PennsylvaniaBudgetandPolicyCenteranalysisofPennsylvaniaDepartmentofEducationdata,availableonlineatwww.education.pa.gov/data-and-statistics(GrauadesandCollege-Boundgraduates),andIPEDSdata(enrollment).

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1SeeMarkPrice,“Pennsylvania’sGreatWorkingClassColleges,”April2017,http://keystoneresearch.org/sites/default/files/KRC_PBPC_EnginesofMobility.pdf;andDianaPolson,StephenHerzenberg,andMarkPrice,“AtStudents’Expense:RisingCostsThreatenPublicUniversities’RoleinUpwardMobility,”June2017,http://www.pennbpc.org/sites/default/files/20170608_RisingCostsPaper.pdf2NationalCenterforHigherEducationManagementSystems(NCHEMS),“PennsylvaniaStateSystemofHigherEducation:StrategicSystemReviewFindings&Recommendations,”July21,2017,http://www.nchemsproject.com/system-review3Ontheeconomictraumaofthe1980sforWesternPennsylvania,seeStephenHerzenberg,“TheStateofWorkingPennsylvania1996,”Harrisburg,KeystoneResearchCenter,September1996.4https://www.pop.org/u-s-birth-echo-boom-fades-away/5Californiatenuredandtenuretrackfacultyhavesincebeennotifiedthattheuniversitydoesnotplantolaythemoffnextyear.SeeBillShackner,“CalUsaysitdoesn'tplantolayofftenuredfacultythisyear,”PittsburghPost-Gazette,July21,2017,http://www.post-gazette.com/news/education/2017/07/21/California-University-of-Pennsylvania-programs-discontinued-Cal-U-State-System-of-Higher-Education-higher-education-college/stories/2017072101376Estimatingtheimpactofdemographicshiftsonenrollmentrequires,first,defininga“sendingregion”foreachuniversityandthendemographictrendsinthisregion.Wedefinedthesendingregionofeachuniversityusingdataonactualattendancefrom2014to2016.Togeneratetheuniversitydemographictrends,weweightedeachcounty’sdemographictrends(i.e.,numberofhigh-schoolgraduatesorcollege-boundhigh-schoolgraduatesrelativeto2009)bythecounty’sshareofuniversityattendeesfrom2014to2016.WesimilarlyweighteddemographictrendsfortheUnitedStatesbythe“restofU.S.”shareofschoolattendancein2014to2016.Wegaveinternationalstudentsanindexof100inallyearsandweightedthatgroupbytheinternationalstudentshareofschoolattendancefrom2014to2016.Asexpected,thisapproachheavilyweightsnearbycountieswhichaccountformostattendanceatstatesystemcampuses.Tocreateanindexofdemographictrendsacrossourgroupsoffourandnineuniversities,weweightedeachuniversity’sdemographicstrendsbyitsshareoftotalenrollmentatallschoolsinthegroupineachyear.7Sincewedonothaveprojectionsforthenumberof“collegeboundHSgrads”orforenrollment,wecannotprojectthesetwochartsforwardanotherdecade.8HarrisDellasandPlutarchosSakellaris,“OntheCyclicalityofSchooling:TheoryandEvidence,”OxfordEconomicPapers,Vol.55,No.1(January2003),pp.148-172.9LBFC,TheNeedforPublicCommunityCollege,Exhibit4,pp.35-38;seeespeciallyExhibits7and8.10SeePrinterNo.393ofHouseBill78,ArticXVII-E.1“RuralRegionalCollegeforUnderservedCommunities;”onlineathttp://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/billInfo/billInfo.cfm?sYear=2013&sInd=0&body=H&type=B&bn=278.Foradescriptionoftheruralcommunitycollegeconceptbasedonearlierstand-alonelegislation(SenateBill1000),seehttp://www.senatorscarnati.com/senate-passes-scarnatis-rural-regional-community-college-legislation/11HillmanandWeichmandefinean“educationdesert”asanareawitheither1.Zerocollegesoruniversitieslocatednearbyor2.Onecommunitycollege“istheonlypublicbroadaccessinstitutionnear-by.”“Broadaccess”isdefinedashavinganacceptancerateofgreaterthan75%.“Near-by”isdefinedaslocatedwithinthesameCommutingZone(fromthe1990census),metropolitan,ormetropolitanstatisticalarea.12Fordetailsandreferencesinsupportofthisandthefollowingsentence,seeStephenHerzenberg,MarkPrice,andMichaelWood“AMustHaveforEducationPartII:InvestmentinHigherEducationforGrowthandOpportunity,”October2014;https://www.keystoneresearch.org/sites/default/files/KRC_PBPC%20Higher%20Ed_0.pdf13JedKolko,“Americans’ShifttoTheSuburbsSpedUpLastYear,”March23,2017,https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-shift-to-the-suburbs-sped-up-last-year/14StephenHerzenbergandMarkPrice,“TheStateofRuralPennsylvania,”revisedMay2008;https://www.keystoneresearch.org/sites/default/files/srpa508_1.pdf15StephenHerzenberg,“PARegionsRankHighinStudyofUpwardMobility,”July24,2013;http://keystoneresearch.org/sites/default/files/KRC-Policy-Brief-Upward-Mobility-7-24-2013.pdf