waking up the giant the key role of energy efficiency in abating climate change
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Waking up the Giant The Key Role of Energy Efficiency in Abating Climate Change. Prof. Dr. Ernst Worrell Chair Energy, materials & the Environment, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University, The Netherlands Director Energy Use & Efficiency, Ecofys, Utrecht, The Netherlands. Therm. Joule. BTU. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Copernicus InstituteResearch Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation
Prof. Dr. Ernst Worrell
Chair Energy, materials & the Environment, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University, The Netherlands
Director Energy Use & Efficiency, Ecofys, Utrecht, The Netherlands
Waking up the Giant
The Key Role of Energy Efficiency in Abating Climate Change
Copernicus InstituteResearch Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation
Joule
kWh
Therm
BTU
MegaJoule
GigaJoule
Negajoule
Kill-a-Watt
Copernicus InstituteResearch Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation
Introduction
• Climate Change
– IPCC 4th Assessment Report Results
– Mitigation: potentials & contributions
• Energy Efficiency & Climate Change
• Key Role of Energy Efficiency– Industry
– Buildings
• Realizing Energy Efficiency
• Conclusions
2007 Nobel Peace PrizeAwarded to IPCC
Copernicus InstituteResearch Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation
IPCC Process
• IPCC charged with assessing existing scientific basis for climate change and response
• Fourth Assessment Report completed in 2007
• Three Working Groups
– WG III – Mitigation – Technology and Economics
• Summary for Policy Makers
– WG III report approved in May 2007
– Line by line approval by participating governments
– Four-day approval process – WGIII Bangkok, May 2007
– Government interventions improve accuracy of reporting with appropriate caveats
Copernicus InstituteResearch Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation
CO2 Emission Sources
CO2 Emissions to Atmosphere
CO2 from energy
CO2 from feedstock (fossil fuels, limestone)
Cement, limeAmmoniaPlastics
CO2 from waste treatment (fossil and biomass)
Anaerobic DigestionIncineration
Extraction
Naturalresources
Waste
ConsumptionProcessingMaterials
ProductionWaste
Management
Recycling and reuse
Copernicus InstituteResearch Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation
Between 1970 and 2004 Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Increased by 70 %
Copernicus InstituteResearch Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation
Even With Current Policies Global GHG Emissions Will Continue to Grow
IPCC SRES Scenarios:
• 2030 GHG emissions 50-76 Gt CO2 or 25-90% higher relative to 2000
• Depending on population and economic growth
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000
A1F
1
A2
A1B
A1T B
1B
2
95th
75th
med
ian
25th 5th
A2
A1F
1
B2
A1B
A1T B
195
th
75th
med
ian
25th 5th
Copernicus InstituteResearch Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation
Substantial economic potential for GHG Emission mitigation over the coming decades
Note: estimates do not explicitly include non-technical options such as lifestyle changes
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
estim
ated
miti
gatio
n po
tent
ial
(Gt
CO
2-eq
) in
203
0
low end of range high end of range
< $0 < $20 < $50 < $100
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
estim
ated
miti
gatio
n po
tent
ial
(Gt
CO
2-eq
) in
203
0
low end of range high end of range
< $20 < $50 < $100
BOTTOM-UP TOP-DOWN
Emissions 2004: 43GtCO2eq: 2030: SRES A1B: 68GtCO2eq ; SRES B2: 49 GtCO2eq
Copernicus InstituteResearch Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation
What does US$ 50/ tCO2eq Mean?
• Crude oil: ~US$25/barrel
• Gasoline: ~12 USc/litre (50 USc/gallon)
• Electricity:
– from coal fired plant: ~5 USc/kWh
– from gas fired plant: ~1.5 USc/kWh
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For Comparison: Oil Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1/3
/97
5/3
/97
9/3
/97
1/3
/98
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/98
9/3
/98
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/00
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/02
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5/3
/03
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/03
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/04
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/04
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/05
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/05
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/06
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/07
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/07
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/08
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/08
1/3
/09
5/3
/09
Avera
ge W
orl
d C
rud
e (
$/b
bl)
Despite most severe economic crisis since the 1930’s energy and resource prices stay high or are increasing again!
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Mitigation Investments are Limited
GDP without mitigation
GDP with stringent mitigation
GDP
Time
80%
current
77%
~1 year
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All Sectors and Regions have the Potential to Contribute
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Reducing GHG Emissions
• The need to stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at sustainable levels will demand strong reductions in global GHG emissions
• Emission reduction in materials production possible by:
– improving energy efficiency
– reducing the emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
– capture and sequestration of CO2 emissions
– increased use of renewable energy and feedstocks
– improving the efficiency with which we use materials
• Focus on integrated energy and material efficiency strategies
• In next decades energy efficiency key
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Emission reduction pathways
IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008
Copernicus InstituteResearch Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation
Energy Efficiency Key to Reduce CO2 Emissions by 2030
Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute more than half of decrease in emissions
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
49%
10%
8%
12%
21%
OECD
63%
1%
21%
15%
Transition economies
67%
7%
17%
4%5%
Developing countries
58%
World
End-use efficiency gains
7%
Fuel switching in end uses
5%
Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation
10%
Increased nuclear in power generation
20%
Increased renewables in power generation
Copernicus InstituteResearch Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1990 1995 2000 2005
EJ
/ye
ar
Other
Agriculture/forestry
Industry
Transport
Services
Buildings
Energy Use Higher Without Efficiency
• World energy demand would have been much higher without energy efficiency efforts since the 1970s
• But not sufficient to stabilize world energy use
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Global Efficiency Effort too Small
• Global investment in energy efficiency in 2007 was 60 billion Euro
• Promising developments in some sectors and some countries
• Overall effort too small, global energy use grew by 3% per year (2003- 2007)
• Download from: www.reeep.org
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Europe Services, 15%
Transport, 9%
Energy supply, 32%
Waste, 2%
Other, 1%
Fossil fuel extraction,
1%
Agriculture, 4%
Households, 29%
Industry, 7%
EU: 2030 GHG Emissions Reductions
Copernicus InstituteResearch Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation
Energy Efficiency - Buildings
• Buildings responsible for 10.6 GtCO2-eq. of GHG emissions, of which 80% from energy use
• Between 20 and 40% of energy used to maintain building environment
– Building envelope
• Walls
• Windows
– Passive and active use of solar energy
– Efficient appliances
• Lighting and appliances other key areas
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Netherlands: Residential space heating and hot water production
Consumption per dwelling, GJ/year (NL)
1975 – average 98
1998 – average 63
Standard 1996/1998/2000 – new 45/38/32
Present best in the market – new 17
Future – new 0 – 6
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Insulation Levels Not Optimized
0
50
100
150
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300
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Sp
ec
ific
en
erg
y u
se
(k
J p
er
m2
pe
r H
DD
)
Canada FranceItaly JapanUnited Kingdom United StatesChina, urban China, rural
Wall Insulation Levels New Construction
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Technologies to increase residential heating efficiency
• Advanced insulation materials (vacuum) and glazing
• Heat storage in phase change materials (factor 10)• Optimum combination of passive and active solar
energy • New construction methods and integrated building
design
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Success is Possible: Top RunnerTV receivers 1997-2003 26%
VCRs 1997-2003 74%
Room air conditioners 1998-2004 68%
Refrigerators 1998-2004 55%
Freezers 1998-2004 30%
Passenger vehicles 1995-2005 23%
Freight vehicles 1995-2005 22%
Vending machines 2000-2005 37%
Computers 1997-2005 99%
Magnetic disc units 1997-2005 98%
Fluorescent lights 1997-2005 36%
Copernicus InstituteResearch Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation
Industry: Global material consumption
increases Rapidly..but global material consumption will grow rapidly, due to growing demand in developing countries and constant demand in industrialized countries
0.0E+00
2.0E+08
4.0E+08
6.0E+08
8.0E+08
1.0E+09
1.2E+09
1.4E+09
1.6E+09
1.8E+09
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Pro
du
ctio
n (
ton
)
Iron
Steel
Cement
Aluminum
Copper
Ammonia
Cement
Steel
Iron
Ammonia (N)
Aluminum
Copernicus InstituteResearch Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation
Potentials exists in all Industrial Sectors (2030)
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
OECDNorth
AmericaOECDPacific
OECDEurope Russia China India Brazil
Iron and steel Chemicals Non-metallic minerals Paper and pulp Other industries
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Industrial Energy Efficiency Opportunities
• Cross-Cutting– Steam systems 10-20%– Cooling/Refrigeration 20-40%– Motor Systems ~ 30%
• Sector Specific– Iron & Steel 15-40%– Cement 10-40%– Chemicals 20-25%
Copernicus InstituteResearch Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation
Realizing Savings: Manage your Energy
• Successful management:– Energy bill is not an act of God– Recognizes the “human factor”– Creates an organization-wide system and program for
managing energy– Delivers sustained reductions over time and is designed for
continual improvement– Relates itself to the core business of the organization
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Energy Management PitfallsEnergy typically considered a “technical issue”:
– Decentralized and not strongly organized– Under-staffed or out-sourced– Changes in management and organization– Technology oriented– Project and not program oriented– Reactive– Undervalued– Considered capital intensive– Lack of upper management support or
involvement
Resulting in poor planning and decision making
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Success Factors for Energy Management• Commitment of top management
• Clear and measurable targets
• Information and management systems in place
• Regularly assess and track performance
• Involvement of all levels in organization
• Stable organization
• Resources and time allocated
• Continuous program
• Excellent communication
• Networking
• External sparring partners
• Recognition
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A Systematic Approach
• Plan (target)• Do (implement)• Check (monitor)• Act (adjust)
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Energy Management: Seven Steps to Change the Mindset
1. Make commitment to continuous improvement
2. Assess performance
3. Set goals
4. Create action plan
5. Implement action plan
6. Evaluate progress
7. Recognize achievements
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Conclusions• Climate change and high energy prices are here to stay
• Energy-efficiency is the key response strategy
• There is substantial potential for energy efficiency improvement in the short, medium and long-term
• We are not running out of technologies to improve energy efficiency, economic and environmental performance, and neither will we in the future: vacuum insulation is an example
• Continuous innovation is key for further bridging the gap between thermodynamics and current energy use
• Strategic energy management is essential to recognize and realize the promise of energy efficiency
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Thank you for your attention
Ernst Worrell
Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University
Ecofys