waccamaw regional economic outlook
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Waccamaw Regional Economic Outlook. Fall and Winter 2011 October 18, 2011 Dr. Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Waccamaw Regional Economic Outlook
Fall and Winter 2011
October 18, 2011Dr. Rob Salvino
Coastal Carolina University
History Forecast Forecast History Forecast ForecastPrevious Current Next Previous Current NextQuarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter
Summer 2011 Fall 2011 Winter 2012 Summer 2011 Fall 2011 Winter 2012
Airport Deplanements (thousands) 337.2 206.5 131.6 8.94 -5.9 0.0Port Tonnage (thousands) 114.2 134.5 94.6 259.2 192.8 25.9Occupancy Rate (Full Week) 79.3 43.9 25 -1.23 7.97 0.88Average Daily Rate (Full Week) 139 65.6 51.6 13.4 1 -1.35Horry County 1.5% Hosp. Fee Revenue ($millions) 13.8$ New Metric: Begin analysis and forecasting next quarter for comparison 3.7Accommodations Tax Revenue ($millions) 9.2$ 2.9$ 1.0$ 3.3 6.1 3.7Admissions Tax Revenue ($millions) 3.9$ 2.0$ 1.1$ -3.8 6.5 11.8Regional SF Building Permits 463 292 346 38.6 -7.8 10.3Regional MF Building Permits 25 23 24 -43.9 -7.2 18.6Retail Sales ($millions)Georgetown County 371.6$ 300.3$ 279.0$ 5.5 1.5 -7.8Horry County 2,774.1$ 2,074.9$ 1,759.3$ 0.7 2.7 -3Employment (thousands)Georgetown County 27.6 26.9 26.3 0.2 0.4 0.3Horry County 129.2 122.1 116 2.6 4.3 4.3Unemployment RateGeorgetown County 11.1 10.8 11.9 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2Horry County 10.1 10.2 11.6 -0.3 -1.1 -1.5
Notes: Spring quarter is March - May, Summer is June - August, Fall is September - November, Winter is December - February. Retail Sales, Accomodations Tax Revenue and
Admissions Tax Revenue represent the period of business activity. For example, Accommodations Taxes for Summer represent the business activity incurrec during the Summer quarter.
Percent change from previous year is relative to the same quarter from the previous year. For example, percent change for Summer 2010 is the percent change between Summer 2009 and
Summer 2010. Rate given is absolute change for: Occupancy Rate, ADR and Unemployment Rates. For example, the given change for the Occupancy Rate during Summer 2009 is simply the
Summer 2010 Occupancy Rate minus the Summer 2009 Occupancy Rate. Reporting delays skew Retail Sales Year-over-Year comparisons.
Grand Strand Economic Outlook: Fall and Winter 2011 Questions may be directed to Dr. Rob Salvino, 843-349-2719, [email protected]
Prepared and Presented by Dr. Rob Salvino, Research Economist, BB&T Center for Economic and Community DevelopmentE. Craig Wall Sr. College of Business Administration, Coastal Carolina University
October 2011
Value Percent Change from Previous Year
2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4
3.9 3.8 2.5 2.3 0.4 1.3 1.2 1.5
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Real GDP Growth
2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4
$938.9 $964.9 $964.5 $994.4 1.02 1.04 $1.041 $1.05
750,000
800,000
850,000
900,000
950,000
1,000,000
1,050,000
1,100,000
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
US Retail Sales
2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1
230.5 309.5 220.1 110.7 239.4 337.2 207.1 110.7
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
MYB Airport Deplanements
2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1
30.6 31.8 45.9 75.1 95.0 114.2 134.5 94.5
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Georgetown Port Tonnage
2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1
53.5 80.5 35.9 24.1 51.9 79.3 43.9 25.01
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Hotel-Condotel-Campground Occupancy Rate
2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1
89.1 125.7 64.6 53.0 85.7 139.0 65.6 51.6
40
60
80
100
120
140
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Hotel-Condotel-Campground Avg Daily Rate
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Horry 1.5% Hopitality Fee Revenue(County-wide fees on accommodations, prepared foods, beverages and admissions)
2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1
$6.49 13.35 5.74 3.22 6.99 13.84 Begin Q4 Begin Q4
2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1
2.9 9.5 $2.7 0.96 3.8 9.8 2.93 1.01
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Accommodations Tax Revenue
2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1
2.48 4.03 1.83 .977 2.62 3.89 1.95 1.09
800,000
1,200,000
1,600,000
2,000,000
2,400,000
2,800,000
3,200,000
3,600,000
4,000,000
4,400,000
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
5% State Admissions Tax
2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1
482 334 317 314 419 463 292 346
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Regional SF Permits
2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1
47 44 25 20 42 25 23 24
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Regional MF Permits
2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1
2.34 3.10 2.32 2.12 2.18 3.15 2.38 2.04
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Regional Retail Sales
2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1
143.8 153.4 144.0 137.5 146.7 156.7 149.1 142.3
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Regional Employment
2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1
11.8 10.6 11.3 12.9 10.6 10.3 10.3 11.7
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Regional Unemployment Rate