VOTING BEHAVIOUR

GOV 1

KEY QUESTIONS

• What are the factors behind voting behaviour?

• Assess the effect of election campaigns and opinion polls on the outcomes of general elections.

• What role do the media play in winning or losing elections?

• How important is social class in voting behaviour?

Models of VB• Party Identification

• Social Structures

• Rational Choice

• Issue Voting

• Party Leadership

• Tactical Voting

Influences on VB

• Election Campaigns

• Opinion Polls

• The Media

• Apathy

General Election Case Studies

• 1979 – Mrs Thatcher kicks 18 years of Tory rule

• 1997 – Mr Blair returns Labour to power with a historic landslide

• 2001 – A low point for democracy!

• 2005 – A victory for who?

• 2010 – a new way to do politics.

Voting Behaviour & Turnout

• Turnout used to be 75% for GE’s• Turnout at LE’s is much lower• 18-25 year olds aren't registering to

vote• Turnout

– 1997 71%– 2001 59%– 2005 61%– 2010 65%

Tumbling Turnout

• Apathy• Changing fabric of community• Refusal to vote• Party dealignment• Class dealignment• Abandonment of party ideology• No choice between parties• Campaigns focus on wrong issues• Media overkill• Opinion polls• Weather

Encouraging People to Vote!

• Is it because people identify with a particular party? The Party Identification Model

• Is it because people’s voting habits are shaped by social factors? The Social Structures Model

• Is it because people make rational choices? The Rational Choice Model

• Is it because modern politics is dominated by a dominant ideology? The Dominant Ideology Model

• When people don’t vote, is it Apathy?• What is Tactical Voting?

‘Vote Local!’

Why do people vote the way they do?

The basis argument here is that voting habits are influenced by a variety of social structures and factors. These include -

CLASSCLASS

OCCUPATIONOCCUPATION

REGION &REGION &GEOGRAPHYGEOGRAPHY

AGEAGE

RELIGIONRELIGION

ETHNICITYETHNICITY

GENDERGENDER

The Social Structures Model

Social Class

• Electorate divided into A, B, C1, C2, D & E’s• A, B, C1 = Conservative Voters• C2, D, E = Labour Voters

• Model dominated political thinking in 1960’s and 70’s

• Class dealignment

• Emergence of New Working Class

Social Class

“Class is the basis of British party politics; all else is

embellishment and detail”Pulzer 1975

http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/collections/p007jyx1#p007n113

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKFTtYx2OHc&NR=1&feature=fvwp

Gender, Age & Ethnicity

• Factors which ‘supposedly’ shape how you vote• Gender: women tend to vote Conservative• Age: 18-35 Labour 45-65 Conservative• Ethnicity: Black & Asian voters tend to be Labour

supporters

Regional Factors

• Political parties tend to have ‘clumped’ support

• Labour – industrial towns in North of England, Scotland & Wales

• Conservatives – London, South East suburbia & rural communities in England

• Liberal Democrats – evenly spread support

Party Deference

“The Conservatives have had more experience over the

centuries. Its in the blood for them, running the country.

There’s more family background in the Conservatives, more of the

aristocratic, more heritage. They're gentlemen born. I think they're made for that sort of job”R Samuel – The Deference Voter

1960

Partisan and Class Theories

“Broadly speaking the electorate was divided into large blocs which provided reliable and stable voting support for the Conservative and Labour parties.

The interconnected phenomena of class and partisan alignment were like twin

pillars….which supported and sustained stable party support on the part of

individual voters and stable two-party system overall”

Denver 1994

Party Identification Model

• Voters identify with a political party in their youth and remain loyal voters as they age

• Choice of political party tends to be driven by social and economic factors

• http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/collections/p007jyx1#p007n19z

1950’s 90%+ of voters 2000+ 55% of voters

• Party Dealignment

Partisan Alignment

“Generally speaking do you usually think of yourself as

Conservative, Labour, a Liberal or what?”

Butler & Stokes 1974

The Basic Argument• People identify with a

political party - for lots of reasons - and stick with that party for life.

• 1950s - 90%+ of voters felt a strong party attachment to either the Conservative or Labour Parties.

• 1997 - less than 75% of voters felt a similar attachment.

• This process is known as PARTISAN DEALIGNMENT.

• Voters are tired of the two main parties.

• Voters have an increased awareness of political issues.

• Better education.• Voters less likely to think

in class terms.• Some voters no longer

identify with party.• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blGVa

UQ2bzI&feature=related

WHY DOES IT HAPPEN?WHY DOES IT HAPPEN?

Check out Check out

TACTICAL VOTING -TACTICAL VOTING -it’s linked to this it’s linked to this

argumentargument

The Party Identification Model

Issue Voting• Vote for a party based solely on their manifesto

policies• http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/collections/p007jyx1#p007n16m

• Model arose post 1979

• Parties traditionally focus on certain policy areas– Labour: health & education– Conservatives: taxes, economy & law– Liberal Democrats: environment

• Independent MPs

Rational Choice Model• Voting behaviour influenced by:

– Parties track record– Election manifesto– Party leaders– Key party players

• Voters make a rational decision not based on class or age or gender or party allegiance BUT on who will benefit them and their families

Rational Voter Theory

“….issues that are defined in terms of alternative courses of government

action and issues that are defined in terms of goals and values that govt may

achieve…….It is natural that the analysis of issues should have a bias towards issues that have meaning in

terms of alternative policies” Butler & Stokes 1974

The Basic ArgumentThe Basic ArgumentClass, age, gender - none of these are as important as the RATIONAL CHOICE made by voters.

http://www.youtube.com/http://www.youtube.com/watch?watch?v=n4IlHiMXTrc&feature=relv=n4IlHiMXTrc&feature=relatedated

Can you guess what the key issues were for rational voters in the 2001 election?

11 -EURO 40%

10 -EU 43%

9 - Asylum 52%

8 - Transport 64%

7 - Tax 64%

6 - Pensions 65%

5 - Employment 70%

4 - Economy 74%

3 - Education 81%

2 - Law & Order 82%

1 - NHS 89%

How is the party

performing?

What policiesdoes the

Partyhave?

What do Ithink about theParty leaders?

Do I agreewith their

manifesto?

I’m beingrational!

Rational Choice Model

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Qba6Yj6BJY&feature=channel

The Basic The Basic ArgumentArgument

• The institutions

that control the key institutions of the UK share a DOMINANT DOMINANT IDEOLOGYIDEOLOGY..

• These institutions are the MEDIA, BIG MEDIA, BIG BUSINESS BUSINESS and and POLITICAL POLITICAL PARTIESPARTIES.

Dominant Ideology Case Study

The Media & the 2001 Election• Majority of the press supported Labour.

• Labour - record levels of support from national dailies and Sunday papers.

DID THE MEDIA SET THE AGENDA IN 2001?

• NO - hardly anyone was interested in the election anyway. Press coverage was subdued, few front page stories.

• NO - but they did try. However, journalists and voters had very different views as to what the key election issues were.

• The 2001 election result was never in doubt - little evidence exists that the media were able to influence the result either way.

The Dominant Ideology Model

The Voting Context Model

And the basic argument is...And the basic argument is...

Voters THINK about the election campaign and the REASON for calling the election.

Voters ask themselves a series of questions.

The questions

Will I bothervoting?

Why is this election

takingplace?

If I do vote,why will I

vote?

What type of election is

this?

Will I vote the same way in all elections?

Voters are therefore attempting to put some CONTEXT onto the meaning of the election.

The Party Leader Effect

• Rise in profile of the party leader• Assessment of competence to lead country –

economy, war, Europe, personality and personal lives

• Media obsession with leaders• Mrs T set the mould - http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=7noHkLaZ5VI

• Changing role of leader in govt• PM or President?• http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=EaL8BN4Gr0U&p=24B2AFBF94834CE9&playnext=1&index=4• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fIyT66s4So&feature=related

2001Turnout59.4%

1997Turnout71.4%

The mostapathetic?

•18-24 year olds - 39%.•Low working class turnout also.•Big regional differences:

Liverpool Riverside 34.1%Winchester 72.3%

WHY?

•‘Too inconvenient’ 21%•‘Away on the day’ 16%•‘Not registered’ 15%•‘No polling card’ 11%•‘Not interested’ 10%

• PASSIVE ABSTENTIONPASSIVE ABSTENTION‘can’t be bothered’

• ACTIVE ABSTENTIONACTIVE ABSTENTIONrefusal on principle / protest

Apathy

Tactical Voting

• A product of FPTP system

• Voting for party A to keep out party B who you dislike because party C, your first choice, has no chance of winning

• 1997 Hazel Grove Constituency – Tory 1000 vote majority over Lib Dems– If you are a Labour supporter, who do you vote

for?

And your basic argument is...

Voters choose to vote for a candidatethat may not be their first choice

candidate in order to prevent their least favourite party or

candidate being elected

19921992May have reduced theConservativemajority by half.

19971997•More important role in outcome of the election.•‘More anti-tory voting than ever before’ (Butler and Stokes).

2001•Strong evidence of tactical voting.•Labour voters switched to Liberals in key constituencies.•‘Independent’ encouraged a tactical vote.

Tactical Voting

Influence of campaigning,

media, opinion polls……..

“Political change was neither related to the degree of exposure nor to any

particular programmes or arguments put forward by the parties…..The inter-election years become more important

than the 17 days campaigning, however intensive, because the swing is almost

entirely accounted for before the opening of the election campaign”

Trenamen & McQuail 1961

Election Campaigns• Jury out on influence of actual campaigns• 1979-87

– Labour poorly organised and unprofessional/ Conservatives use of powerful national negative advertising

• 1990 to today – Labour got slick and carefully managed campaigns/

Conservatives campaigning tired and focused on wrong issues

– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIBZ1QXi610– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBcYytunF-Y– - 2010 campaign http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=4lyaV0igUDA&p=06BE5FAB442BA2DB&playnext=1&index=3

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rqis1mkS2CE&feature=related

General Election 2010

The 2005 General Election Case

Study

The 2001 General Election Case

Study

The 1997 General Election

Case Study

Was the 1997 General election a text book

example of the power of a well organised campaign OR was it

just time for a change ?

Opinion Polls

• Disagreement on polls influence on elections

• Polls often seen as election forecasts• Polls are a snapshot of voting intention• Best guide available for politicians and

media • Cant be bothered or bandwagon effect• Different sampling methods• Sample sizes

Video Task• Who conducted the BBC’s exit poll?• What was the sample size?• What was the forecast result for:

seatsshare of vote

– Labour– Conservative– Lib Dems– Others

• What Labour majority did the poll forecast?• What percentage swing to the Tories did the

poll forecast?• What percentage swing did the Tories need to

win?

The Media

TYPESOF

MEDIA

The Media

The Media• Difference of opinion on influence of media• Looking at media content suggests there is some

level of influence• Editors decisions on what and what not to focus

on• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eBT6OSr1TI&feature=related

• Influence of the newspapers – If The Sun backs you, you win!

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDw-1bYatIs&feature=related

• Labour recognised this, implemented a programme to charm and educate the media about NEW LABOUR

Public IgnorancePublic Ignorance

National InterestNational Interest

Political BiasPolitical Bias

Distortion of RealityDistortion of Reality

Ownership ConcentrationOwnership Concentration

ISSUESISSUES

People may betoo busy to findout themselves

People may betoo busy to findout themselves