Voting and Decision Rules Voting and Decision Rules in the European Unionin the European Union

Examination of the Draft Treaty Establishing a Examination of the Draft Treaty Establishing a Constitution for the European UnionConstitution for the European Union

Econ 270 – European Economic IntegrationEcon 270 – European Economic IntegrationDr. Diego Méndez-CarbajoDr. Diego Méndez-Carbajo

5/27/055/27/05

Presented By: Stephanie PanozzoPresented By: Stephanie Panozzoandand

Peter BrownPeter Brown

Introduction of Topic and DiscussionIntroduction of Topic and Discussion

What are voting and decision rules?What are voting and decision rules?• The process in which any bill, treaty, referendum, etc., gets The process in which any bill, treaty, referendum, etc., gets

passed into enactment by way of passed into enactment by way of qualified majorityqualified majority voting voting

We will be discussing the We will be discussing the disadvantagesdisadvantages of the proposed voting of the proposed voting system and decision making processes in the treaty forming a system and decision making processes in the treaty forming a constitution for the European Unionconstitution for the European Union

We concluded this for 2 main reasons:We concluded this for 2 main reasons:• Reductions in voting power for member states that are Reductions in voting power for member states that are

average to smaller in population; Increases in voting power for average to smaller in population; Increases in voting power for larger countries, namely the larger countries, namely the UK, Germany, Italy, FranceUK, Germany, Italy, France

• Reductions in voting power for all EU citizens; Increases in Reductions in voting power for all EU citizens; Increases in powers for politicianspowers for politicians

ThesisThesis ““The proposed reforms of voting rules will likely The proposed reforms of voting rules will likely

favor the four largest countries in the EU; as a favor the four largest countries in the EU; as a result, these reforms are unlikely to go forward.”result, these reforms are unlikely to go forward.”

Institutions Responsible for Voting and Institutions Responsible for Voting and Decision MakingDecision Making

European CommissionEuropean Commission• Proposes laws; no votingProposes laws; no voting• ““Executive Branch” – Guardian of the Treaties and responsible for Executive Branch” – Guardian of the Treaties and responsible for

monitoring and policing EU lawmonitoring and policing EU law

European ParliamentEuropean Parliament• Proposes some laws; approves all lawsProposes some laws; approves all laws• Number of representatives from a particular country is dependent on Number of representatives from a particular country is dependent on

population of that countrypopulation of that country• Not responsible to or appointed by governments of member statesNot responsible to or appointed by governments of member states• ““Legislative Branch” – Power to legislateLegislative Branch” – Power to legislate

Shares budgetary authority with the Council of the European UnionShares budgetary authority with the Council of the European Union Approves nomination of CommissionersApproves nomination of Commissioners Supervision over all institutionsSupervision over all institutions

Council of the European UnionCouncil of the European Union

Council of the European UnionCouncil of the European Union

• Each member state appoints a minister; rotating Each member state appoints a minister; rotating presidencypresidency

• Does most of the groundwork on any proposed Does most of the groundwork on any proposed legislationlegislation

• Voting done by unanimity on matters of:Voting done by unanimity on matters of: Industry, taxation, culture, R&D programs, Industry, taxation, culture, R&D programs,

and social fundsand social funds• Voting done by Voting done by qualified majorityqualified majority on matters of: on matters of:

Agriculture, fisheries, the internal market, Agriculture, fisheries, the internal market, the environment, and transportationthe environment, and transportation

Current and Proposed Voting SystemsCurrent and Proposed Voting Systems

Current voting system for Council of Ministers established by the Treaty of Current voting system for Council of Ministers established by the Treaty of Nice (2001)Nice (2001)

Became effective November of 2004Became effective November of 2004• A vote is deemed to have been passed by A vote is deemed to have been passed by qualified majorityqualified majority when it when it

has: has: Gathered 232 out of the total of 321 votes (72%)Gathered 232 out of the total of 321 votes (72%) Is backed by a majority of member states (13 of 25)Is backed by a majority of member states (13 of 25) These countries represent at least 62% of the EU population These countries represent at least 62% of the EU population

Voting system criticized for complexityVoting system criticized for complexity

European Union Draft Constitution submitted to the Council of European European Union Draft Constitution submitted to the Council of European Ministers in July of 2003Ministers in July of 2003

The EU draft constitution attempts to lower the barrier for a vote to be The EU draft constitution attempts to lower the barrier for a vote to be passed with two simple requirements: passed with two simple requirements: • The support of 50% of EU member states The support of 50% of EU member states • These countries represent at least 60% of the EU's populationThese countries represent at least 60% of the EU's population

• First measure guarantees a measure of influence to smaller statesFirst measure guarantees a measure of influence to smaller states• Second measure works in favor of the larger states.Second measure works in favor of the larger states.

Brief Introduction to Voting Power:Brief Introduction to Voting Power:Voting TheoryVoting Theory

Lionel S. PenroseLionel S. Penrose• Developed method to calculate voting Developed method to calculate voting

powerpower

• Voting PowerVoting Power:: The mathematical The mathematical probability that a configuration of votes probability that a configuration of votes cast in the council is such that the cast in the council is such that the resolution is passed if the member votes for resolution is passed if the member votes for the proposal, and rejected otherwisethe proposal, and rejected otherwise

• ““One must calculate the number of ways in One must calculate the number of ways in which a given party may form a coalition which a given party may form a coalition with other parties in order to gain the with other parties in order to gain the required parliamentary majority”required parliamentary majority”

John F. Banzhaf IIIJohn F. Banzhaf III• Similar index became popular and widely Similar index became popular and widely

usedused• Known as the Banzhaf Index (Known as the Banzhaf Index (ββ))

Brief Introduction to Voting Power:Brief Introduction to Voting Power:ExamplesExamples

Small Model example:Small Model example:• Party A has Party A has 51%51% of the seats of the seats• Party B has Party B has 49%49% of the seats of the seats• Decision rules are made by majority rule (more than 50%)Decision rules are made by majority rule (more than 50%)• Party A has Party A has 100%100% of the power of the power

Larger Example:Larger Example:• Party B breaks up, half go to party A, the rest split equally between parties C and DParty B breaks up, half go to party A, the rest split equally between parties C and D

• In summation, distinction between the number of votes a country gets and it’s In summation, distinction between the number of votes a country gets and it’s voting power is critical to our discussionvoting power is critical to our discussion

PartyParty Beginning of Beginning of

TermTermAfter Breakup After Breakup

of Party Bof Party BBeginning of Beginning of

Term Term (β)(β)After Breakup After Breakup

of Party B of Party B (β)(β)

AA 4242 5454 50%50% 100%100%

BB 2424 ---- ≈ ≈ 16.7%16.7% --

CC 2020 2626 ≈ ≈ 16.7%16.7% 0%0%

DD 1414 2020 ≈ ≈ 16.7%16.7% 0%0%

Argumentation for ThesisArgumentation for Thesis Declaration:Declaration:

• ““Reductions in voting power for member states that are average to Reductions in voting power for member states that are average to smaller in population; Increases in voting power for larger countries, smaller in population; Increases in voting power for larger countries, namely the UK, Germany, Italy, France”namely the UK, Germany, Italy, France”

Evidence:Evidence:• Treaty of NiceTreaty of Nice

Gathered 232 out of the total of 321 votes (72%)Gathered 232 out of the total of 321 votes (72%) Is backed by a majority of member states (13 of 25)Is backed by a majority of member states (13 of 25) These countries represent at least 62% of the EU population These countries represent at least 62% of the EU population

• Constitution DraftConstitution Draft The support of 50% of EU member states The support of 50% of EU member states These countries represent at least 60% of the EU's populationThese countries represent at least 60% of the EU's population

• The removal of the 1The removal of the 1stst condition from the Treat of Nice is significant condition from the Treat of Nice is significant because the mathematical probability of only meeting this condition because the mathematical probability of only meeting this condition and not the other two is extremely lowand not the other two is extremely low

β Values for Member States:β Values for Member States:Draft Constitution and Treaty of NiceDraft Constitution and Treaty of Nice

Gains

Losses

β Differences With Adoption of Constitutionβ Differences With Adoption of Constitution

Argumentation for ThesisArgumentation for Thesis Declaration:Declaration:

• ““Takes away voting power from citizens and national governments; increases Takes away voting power from citizens and national governments; increases powers for politicians”powers for politicians”

Evidence:Evidence:• In addition to Banzhaf Index evidence, the proposed constitution:In addition to Banzhaf Index evidence, the proposed constitution:• Centralizes the EU further by taking more powers away from national Centralizes the EU further by taking more powers away from national

parliaments and citizens, giving them to a small population of politicians and civil parliaments and citizens, giving them to a small population of politicians and civil servantsservants

Example: The Constitution abolishes existing national vetoes and gives new Example: The Constitution abolishes existing national vetoes and gives new law-making powers to the EU in relation to over 60 policy areas or issueslaw-making powers to the EU in relation to over 60 policy areas or issues

Evidence:Evidence:• Allows politicians to amend the constitution without need of further treaty Allows politicians to amend the constitution without need of further treaty

ratificationratification ““Escalator clause” creates a permanent democratic deficit by allowing policy Escalator clause” creates a permanent democratic deficit by allowing policy

shifts from unanimity to majority voting in significant areasshifts from unanimity to majority voting in significant areas Evidence:Evidence:

• Eliminates the unanimity voting requirements for a majority of issues that Eliminates the unanimity voting requirements for a majority of issues that require unanimity for enactmentrequire unanimity for enactment

• EU military operations authorization without international discussionEU military operations authorization without international discussion• Allows for the EU Supreme Court to decide fundamental human rightsAllows for the EU Supreme Court to decide fundamental human rights

General Consensus in the EUGeneral Consensus in the EU

Although unification is a common goal throughout Europe (federalism), Although unification is a common goal throughout Europe (federalism), many countries are unwilling to give up their national identities and powers many countries are unwilling to give up their national identities and powers to a supreme governing body (nationalism)to a supreme governing body (nationalism)

Average to smaller populated countries oppose constitution mainly Average to smaller populated countries oppose constitution mainly because of poorly constructed and unfavorable voting and decision because of poorly constructed and unfavorable voting and decision making proposals, as shown with evidencemaking proposals, as shown with evidence• Nationalism contributing cause as wellNationalism contributing cause as well

England, Italy, France, GermanyEngland, Italy, France, Germany• All strong nationalistic countriesAll strong nationalistic countries

Recent polls show lack of support for constitution as wellRecent polls show lack of support for constitution as well

ConclusionConclusion Lack of support for the Draft Constitution is most apparent Lack of support for the Draft Constitution is most apparent

in the proposed voting and decision making processes, in the proposed voting and decision making processes, along with a variety of other fallaciesalong with a variety of other fallacies

The adoption of the Draft Constitution is highly unlikelyThe adoption of the Draft Constitution is highly unlikely