volume 1, chapter 10 climate change - airport expansion … · 2019-06-13 · table 10.6: potential...
TRANSCRIPT
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT
© Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Volume 1, Chapter 10
Climate change
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
© Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
CONTENTS
10. Climate change 10.1
Introduction 10.1
Relevant legislation, policy and other important and relevant matters 10.3 Introduction 10.3 Legislation and national planning policy 10.3 Regional and local planning policy 10.7 Other important and relevant matters 10.8
Scoping and engagement 10.8 Overview 10.8 Scoping Opinion 10.8 Technical engagement 10.11
Scope of the assessment 10.12 Overview 10.12 Spatial scope and study area 10.12 Temporal scope 10.14 Project parameters and reasonable worst case 10.14 Receptors 10.15 Identification of potential effects 10.17
Embedded environmental measures 10.24
Methodology for baseline data gathering 10.32 Desk study 10.32
Assessment methodology for PEIR 10.33 Assessment methodology evolution 10.33 Climate hazards assessment 10.34 In-combination climate change impact assessment 10.39 Climate change resilience assessment 10.43
Assumptions and limitations of this PEIR 10.48
Overall baseline 10.49 Current baseline 10.49 Future baseline 10.51
Assessment of climate change effects 10.51 Introduction 10.51 Hazard assessment 10.51 In-combination climate change impact assessment 10.56 Climate change resilience assessment 10.67
Preliminary assessment of significance 10.83
Assessment of cumulative effects 10.84
Consideration of additional environmental measures and compensation 10.84
Next Steps 10.84 Introduction 10.84 Baseline 10.84 Assessment 10.84 Engagement 10.85
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
© Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
TABLE OF TABLES
Table 10.1: Legislation relevant to climate change 10.3 Table 10.2: National planning policy relevant to climate change 10.4 Table 10.3: PINS Scoping Opinion consultation 10.9 Table 10.4: Aspects scoped into the in-combination climate change impact assessments 10.15 Table 10.5: Assets scoped into the climate change resilience assessment 10.16 Table 10.6: Potential effects from in-combination climate change impacts on receptors 10.17 Table 10.7: Potential effects of climate change on asset groups 10.22 Table 10.8: Summary of the embedded environmental measures in the design and how these influence the climate change assessment for both the ICCI and CCR assessments 10.25 Table 10.9: Summary of the good practice environmental measures and how these influence the climate change assessment 10.28 Table 10.10: Data sources used to inform the climate change assessment 10.32 Table 10.11: Assessment methodology for the PEIR and ES 10.33 Table 10.12: Climate variables that have been assessed in the climate hazards assessment 10.35 Table 10.13: Derived hazards that have been assessed in the climate hazards assessment 10.36 Table 10.14: Criteria to assess likelihood of hazard (based upon UKCP18) 10.36 Table 10.15: Criteria to assess likelihood of climate change impact 10.46 Table 10.16: Criteria used to assess consequence of a climate change impact 10.47 Table 10.17: Criteria used to assess risk levels for the climate change resilience assessment 10.48 Table 10.18: Future changes in climate variables for 2030s, 2050s, 2080s and 2099 10.52 Table 10.19: Direction of change in hazards for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s 10.55 Table 10.20: In- combination Climate Change impact assessment results 10.57 Table 10.21: Climate change resilience assessment results 10.68 Table 10.22: Further engagement 10.85
TABLE OF GRAPHICS
Graphic 10.1: UKCP18 representative 25km2 and 12km2 grid squares, relevant to the DCO Project 10.13 Graphic 10.2: Methodological approach to in-combination climate change impact assessment 10.41 Graphic 10.3: Risk framework for climate change resilience assessment 10.45
APPENDICES
Appendix 10.1: Principles of the Climate Change Adaptation Plan
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
10. CLIMATE CHANGE
Introduction
10.1.1 This chapter of the Preliminary Environmental Information Report (PEIR) presents
the preliminary results of the assessment of the likely significant effects of the
impacts of climate change on the Development Consent Order Project (’DCO
Project’). This includes both the in-combination climate change impacts (ICCI) and
climate change resilience (CCR) assessments. This chapter should be read in
conjunction with the DCO Project description provided in Chapter 6: DCO Project description, Chapter 23: Bibliography, and the Glossary of terms and abbreviations.
10.1.2 This chapter describes data and information relevant to the ICCI assessment and
the CCR assessment. The ICCI assessment focusses on those effects of the DCO
Project identified by an environmental aspect that will also be affected by climate
change. An example of this is the fragmentation of a habitat, which could be
exacerbated by projected increases in temperature and frequency of droughts.
10.1.3 The CCR assessment focuses on the resilience of the DCO Project to projected
future climate change effects. An example of this is increased intensity of extreme
rainfall events creating volumes of surface water run-off that overwhelm the
drainage infrastructure.
10.1.4 Where data and information are common to both assessments, this is explained in
the text. Where data and information are specific to each assessment, separate
sub-headings are used.
10.1.5 The effect of the DCO Project on climate change is the focus of Chapter 9: Carbon and greenhouse gases.
10.1.6 This chapter describes:
The planning policy, legislation and other relevant documentation that has
informed the assessment (Section 10.2: Relevant legislation, policy and other important and relevant matters)
The outcome of consultation and external engagement that has been
undertaken, including how matters on climate change within the Scoping
Opinion adopted in July 2018 have been addressed (Section 10.3: Scoping and engagement)
The scope of the assessment for climate change (Section 10.4: Scope of the assessment)
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.2 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Embedded environmental measures relevant to climate change (Section 10.5: Embedded environmental measures)
The methods used for the baseline data gathering (Section 10.6: Methodology for baseline data gathering)
The assessment methods used for the PEIR (Section 10.7: Assessment methodology for PEIR)
The assumptions and limitations of the PEIR assessment (Section 10.8: Assumptions and limitations of this PEIR)
The overall baseline (Section 10.9: Overall baseline)
The assessment of climate change effects (Section 10.10: Assessment of climate change effects)
A summary of significance of positive and negative climate change effects
identified in the PEIR (Section 10.11: Preliminary assessment of significance)
The assessment of cumulative effects (Section 10.12: Assessment of cumulative effects)
Consideration of any additional environmental measures or compensation
required (Section 10.13: Consideration of additional environmental measures and compensation)
An outline of further work to be undertaken for the Environmental Statement
(ES) (Section 10.14: Next steps).
10.1.7 In-combination effects are addressed in Chapter 22: In-combination effects.
10.1.8 In the context of this chapter, ‘adaptation’ is an adjustment to a design or
operational procedure to respond to the projected impacts of climate change.
‘Climate change resilience’ of the DCO Project is its ability to absorb the impacts
of climate change and maintain its functionality. This can be increased through the
introduction of adaptation measures, which are referred to as ‘environmental
measures’ for consistency with the rest of the PEIR. Any reference to ‘mitigation’
or ‘mitigating’ an effect is used in this chapter in the context of the EIA terminology,
and not in the context of mitigating global climate change through the reduction of
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (which is the focus of Chapter 9).
10.1.9 This chapter uses the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) (Met Office, 2018)
as the basis of assessment. UKCP18 (Met Office, 2018) was released on 26th
November 2018, replacing UKCP09 (Met Office, 2009) as the de facto climate
projections for use in climate change impact and adaptation assessment in the
UK.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.3 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Relevant legislation, policy and other important and relevant matters
Introduction
10.2.1 This section identifies the policy and legislation that has informed the assessment
of effects for climate change. Further information on policies relevant to the EIA
and their status is provided in Chapter 2: Legislative and policy overview of this
PEIR.
Legislation and national planning policy
10.2.2 Table 10.1 lists the legislation relevant to the assessment of the effects on climate
change receptors for the ICCI and CCR assessments.
Table 10.1: Legislation relevant to climate change
Legislation description Relevance to assessment
UK Climate Change Act 2008
Section 56 of the Climate Change Act 2008
commits the UK to producing a Climate Change
Risk Assessment (CCRA):
’It is the duty of the Secretary of State to lay reports
before Parliament containing an assessment of the
risks for the United Kingdom of the current and
predicted impact of climate change.’
This includes a mechanism under which certain
organisations report on their preparedness in
relation to climate change. The Secretary of State
directed a number of infrastructure owners and
operators, including Heathrow, to report for the first
round of reporting. The second and third rounds of
reporting are voluntary.
The CCRA must be prepared at no longer than five-
yearly intervals. To date two CCRAs have been
produced (Defra, 2017a). Paragraph 4.49 of the
Airports National Policy Statement (ANPS)
(Department for Transport, 2018) requires that
adaptation measures proposed are based on the
most recent CCRA (Defra, 2017a).
The Climate Change Act 2008 introduced an
obligation on the Secretary of State to prepare the
The UK Climate Change Act 2008 requires
Heathrow to report on how they are addressing
current and future climate effects. Heathrow has
developed two reports on progress in climate
change adaptation: the UK Climate Change
Adaptation Reporting Power Report (Heathrow
Airport Limited, 2011), which identified the key
climate risks to the infrastructure and operations of
Heathrow Airport, and; the Heathrow Airport
Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience
Progress Report (Heathrow Airport Limited, 2016),
which updated on Heathrow’s progress in meeting
resilience actions identified in the Climate Change
Adaptation Reporting Power Report (Heathrow
Airport Limited, 2011). The third round of adaptation
reporting under the NAP is currently ongoing.
These existing adaptation reporting processes are
relevant to this PEIR assessment as all climate
change risk assessment and associated
environmental measures identified through this
assessment will feed into Heathrow’s reporting
thereafter. The existing adaptation assessments for
Heathrow is therefore considered in the
methodology described in Section 10.7 of this
chapter. The approach to considering the CCRAs
that are required by the UK Climate Change Act
2008 is described in Section 10.7 of this chapter.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.4 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Legislation description Relevance to assessment
National Adaptation Programme (NAP) in section
58 (1). It states:
‘It is the duty of the Secretary of State to lay
programmes before Parliament setting out —
(a) the objectives of Her Majesty’s Government in
the United Kingdom in relation to adaptation to
climate change,
(b) the Government’s proposals and policies for
meeting those objectives, and
(c) the time-scales for introducing those proposals
and policies, addressing the risks identified in the
most recent report under section 56.’
The NAP must contribute to sustainable
development and should be presented as soon as
possible after the CCRA.
10.2.3 Table 10.2 lists the national planning policy relevant to the assessment of the
effects on climate change receptors.
Table 10.2: National planning policy relevant to climate change
Policy description Relevance to assessment
Airports National Policy Statement (ANPS)
Chapter 2 provides an explanation of the relevance of the ANPS (Department for Transport, 2018) to the DCO Project in general terms. The ANPS (Department for Transport, 2018) regards climate change as an assessment principle. Paragraph 4.45 states: ’New airports infrastructure will typically be a long-term investment which will need to remain operational over many decades, in the face of a changing climate. Consequently, the applicant must consider the impacts of climate change when planning design, build and operation. Any accompanying environmental statement should set out how the proposal will take account of the projected impacts of climate change.’ In Paragraphs 4.46 to 4.52, the ANPS (Department for Transport, 2018) requires the assessment to include the following:
1. “Detailed consideration must be given to the
range of potential impacts of climate change
using the latest UK Climate Projections
available at the time, and to ensuring any
environmental statement that is prepared
The ANPS (Department for Transport, 2018) sets out requirements for the assessment, which are followed in the methodology provided in Section 10.7 of this chapter:
1. The assessment methodology outlined in this
PEIR ensures identification of climate change
impacts using UKCP18 (the latest set of UK
climate projections) (Met Office, 2018), as
described in Section 10.7 of this chapter. Table 10.8 sets out how embedded environmental
measures will be implemented in relation to
climate change.
2. The use of probability levels from the 10% to the
90%, including the 50%, is described in Table 10.14 assessment of this assessment. The use
of the high emissions scenario in the 2080s for
long-lived assets is described in Section 10.7 of
this chapter.
3. ‘More radical changes’ to the climate will be
considered in the ES through the use of
sensitivity analysis. An adaptive management
approach will be used to consider such
changes, as described in Appendix 10.1:
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.5 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Policy description Relevance to assessment
identifies appropriate mitigation or adaptation
measures.
2. Where transport infrastructure has safety-
critical elements, and the design life of the
asset is 60 years or greater, the applicant
should apply the latest available UK Climate
Projections, considering at least a scenario that
reflects a high level of greenhouse gas
emissions at the 10%, 50% and 90% probability
levels, to assess the impacts of climate change
over the lifetime of the development.
3. The applicant should demonstrate that there
are no critical features of infrastructure design
which may be seriously affected by more
radical changes to the climate beyond those
projected in the latest set of UK Climate
Projections. Any potential critical features
should be assessed, taking account of the
latest credible scientific evidence on, for
example, sea level rise, and on the basis that
necessary action can be taken to ensure the
operation of the infrastructure over its estimated
lifetime through potential further mitigation or
adaptation.
4. Any adaptation measures should be based on
the latest set of UK Climate Projections (Met
Office, 2018), the most recent UK Climate
Change Risk Assessment (Defra, 2017a),
consultation with statutory consultation bodies,
and any other appropriate climate projection
data. Any adaptation measures must
themselves also be assessed as part of any
Environmental Impact Assessment and
included in the environmental statement, which
should set out how and where such measures
are proposed to be secured.
5. If any proposed adaptation measures
themselves give rise to consequential impacts,
the Secretary of State will consider the impact
in relation to the application as a whole and the
assessment principles set out in the Airports
NPS.
6. Adaptation measures can be required to be
implemented at the time of construction where
necessary and appropriate to do so.
7. Where adaptation measures are necessary to
deal with the impact of climate change, and that
measure would have an adverse effect on other
aspects of the DCO Project or the surrounding
environment, the Secretary of State may
consider requiring the applicant to ensure that
the adaptation measure could be implemented
Principles of the Climate Change Adaptation Plan, Volume 3.
4. The consideration of the UK CCRA (Defra,
2017a) in the methodology is described in
Section 10.7 of this chapter. Table 10.3 sets
out the responses to Planning Inspectorate
(PINS) comments. Section 10.3 onwards
outlines engagement with key stakeholders.
Environmental measures (a term used instead
of mitigations in this PEIR) have been
developed to manage risks. These are
described in Section 10.5 of this chapter, and
Appendix 10.1. 5. The consequential impacts of embedded
environmental measures in other aspects have
been assessed in their individual chapters;
since no additional environmental measures
have been identified yet for climate change,
there have been no consequential impacts to
consider.
6. Environmental measures have been
incorporated into the design of the DCO Project
that is to be constructed.
7. Environmental measures to be incorporated
throughout the operational lifetime of the DCO
Project are incorporated into Appendix 10.1.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.6 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Policy description Relevance to assessment
should the need arise, rather than at the outset
of the development.’
National Policy Statement for National Networks (NN NPS)
Chapter 2 provides an explanation of the relevance of the NN NPS (Department for Transport, 2014) to the DCO Project in general terms. In a similar way to the ANPS (Department for Transport, 2018), paragraph 4.37 of the NN NPS sets out: ‘how the NPS puts Government policy on climate change adaptation into practice, and in particular how applicants and the Secretary of State should take the effects of climate change into account when developing and consenting infrastructure.’ The NN NPS (Department for Transport, 2014) wording is similar to that in the ANPS (Department for Transport, 2018), except in paragraph 4.41 which specifies that: ‘where transport infrastructure has safety-critical elements and the design life of the asset is 60 years or greater, the applicant should apply the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) high emissions scenario (high impact, low likelihood) against the 2080 projections at the 50% probability level.’
Given the inclusion of the M25 works as part of the Development Consent Order Project (‘DCO Project’), the requirements of the NN NPS relating to climate change are applicable (Department for Transport, 2014). Further details of the proposed works to the M25 are set out in Chapter 6 of this PIER. It is a requirement of the NN NPS (Department for Transport, 2014) to undertake an assessment of the climate change impacts on the M25 component of the DCO Project and implement environmental measures accordingly. The NN NPS (Department for Transport, 2014) sets out requirements for the assessment, which are followed in the methodology provided in Section 10.7 of this chapter. Projections in the high scenario at the 50%
probability level are inherently used in the
assessment as the 10th – 90th percentile range is
considered, as described in Table 10.14.
Therefore, the requirements of the NN NPS
(Department for Transport, 2014) are exceeded in
order to meet the requirements of the ANPS
(Department for Transport, 2018).
National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF)
The NPPF (DCLG, 2019) sets out the Government’s planning policies for England. Chapter 2 provides an explanation of the relevance of the NPPF (DCLG, 2019) to the DCO Project in general terms. The NPPF (DCLG, 2019) sets out in paragraph 149
that Local Plans:
‘should take a proactive approach to mitigating and
adapting to climate change, taking into account the
long-term implications for flood risk, coastal
change, water supply and changes to biodiversity
and landscape’.
Paragraph 150 states that:
‘New developments should be planned for in ways
that:
a) avoid increased vulnerability to the range of impacts arising from climate change. When new development is brought forward in areas which are vulnerable, care should be taken to ensure that risks can be managed through suitable adaptation
The NPPF (DCLG, 2019) and the associated EA planning practice guidance (Environment Agency, 2017) requires a risk-based approach to avoid vulnerability associated with flooding risk and climate change. The methodology outlined in Section 10.7 of this chapter ensures that the vulnerability of the DCO Project to climate change is assessed, and environmental measures are implemented to ensure risks are managed.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.7 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Policy description Relevance to assessment
measures, including through the planning of green infrastructure’. Paragraph 153 also states that: ’in determining planning applications, local planning authorities should expect new development to: a) comply with any development plan policies on local requirements for decentralised energy supply unless it can be demonstrated by the applicant, having regard to the type of development involved and its design, that this is not feasible or viable’. The supporting Environment Agency planning
practice guidance, Flood risk assessments: climate
change allowances (Environment Agency, 2017),
contains the percentage uplifts for climate change
to be added to assessments. Local Planning Authorities (LPAs) are required to set out the strategic priorities for the area in their Local Plans, and this should include policies to deliver climate change mitigation and adaptation (among other priorities). Therefore, the NPPF climate change principles (DCLG, 2019) are reflected in the Local Plans relevant to the DCO Project, as listed in Appendix 2.1.
Regional and local planning policy
10.2.4 Appendix 2.1: Regional and local planning policy and other important and relevant matters, Volume 3 presents the full list of the regional and local planning
policies relevant to the assessment of the effects on climate change receptors.
10.2.5 Only those authorities that the DCO Project is situated within or in which new
buildings will be required are relevant to this chapter given the potential for
localised effects from climate hazards. The local planning policies from the
following LPAs, which fall within the climate change study area (Section 10.4),
have therefore been considered:
1. Greater London Authority
2. London Borough of Hillingdon
3. London Borough of Hounslow
4. Royal London Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead
5. Spelthorne Borough Council
6. Slough Borough Council
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.8 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
7. South Bucks District Council
8. Buckinghamshire County Council
9. Surrey County Council.
Other important and relevant matters
10.2.6 A summary of other relevant documentation to the assessment undertaken in
climate change is provided in Table 4.2 of Appendix 2.1.
Scoping and engagement
Overview
10.3.1 This section describes the outcome of, and response to, the Scoping Opinion in
relation to the climate change assessment. It also provides details of the ongoing
technical engagement that has been undertaken with stakeholders and individuals.
An overview of engagement undertaken can be found in Section 1.5 of Chapter 1: Introduction.
10.3.2 Engagement has taken the form of meetings and document sharing, and is
summarised in the following sections.
Scoping Opinion
10.3.3 A Scoping Report requesting a Scoping Opinion was submitted to the Secretary of
State, administered by the Planning Inspectorate (PINS) on behalf of the Secretary
of State, on 21 May 2018. The Scoping Report set out the proposed climate
change assessment methodologies, outlined the baseline data collected to date
and that proposed for the ES.
10.3.4 A Scoping Opinion was adopted by PINS, on behalf of the Secretary of State, on 2
July 2018. Table 10.3 sets out the comments adopted in Section 4 of the PINS
Scoping Opinion (‘Aspect based scoping tables’) for climate change and how they
have been addressed in this PEIR. A full list of the PINS Scoping Opinion
comments and responses is provided in Appendix 5.1: Response to the Scoping Opinion, Volume 3. The information provided in the PEIR is preliminary
and therefore not all the Scoping Opinion comments have been addressed at this
stage. However, all comments will be addressed within the ES.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.9 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Table 10.3: PINS Scoping Opinion consultation
PINS ID number Scoping Opinion comment How is this addressed?
53 The Scoping Report states that no effects
have been scoped out of the ICCI and CCR
assessments but that Phase 1 of the ICCI
assessment will consider all aspects (topics)
and will determine which aspects remain
scoped in for detailed assessment and which
are scoped out. Any aspects or matters
subsequently scoped out of the assessment
should be fully justified within the ES and
efforts made to agree these with relevant
consultation bodies.
Engagement has been carried out through an
integrated approach with the other
environmental aspects. Further engagement
with relevant consultation bodies will be
undertaken to inform the ES.
54 The Inspectorate notes that the Applicant has
consulted the Environment Agency regarding
the proposed approach with respect to the
water environment and intends to consult with
the Heathrow Strategic Planning Group
(HSPG). The Applicant should ensure that
other consultation bodies with statutory
responsibilities for other assessment aspects
(for example, biodiversity), such as Natural
England, are consulted regarding the potential
for climate change effects to influence the
effectiveness of any proposed mitigation
measures.
For the PEIR stage, climate change has been
considered in an integrated approach with
the other environmental aspects. The
Environment Agency, Natural England,
Public Health England and HSPG will be
engaged with specifically on the subject of
climate change for the ES stage.
55 The ES should take into account the potential
impacts of climate change using the latest
UKCP available at the time of preparation.
This should include where appropriate the
anticipated UKCP18 projections.
UKCP18 (Met Office, 2018) has been used in
the production of this PEIR.
UKCP18 (Met Office, 2018) was released in
November 2018, however, the anticipated
2.2km resolution projections were not
available at the time of publishing the PEIR
and are therefore not included. The full suite
of UKCP18 (Met Office, 2018) tools will be
used in the production of the ES.
56 The Inspectorate notes that based on the
nature of the Proposed Development, for the
purpose of the climate change assessments its
operational period is estimated as being 100
years. The Scoping Report describes the use
of ’intermediate timeframes’ to allow
consideration of infrastructure elements with
more short-lived operational periods. The
Inspectorate advises that the ES includes
details of any infrastructure elements predicted
to be decommissioned over a shorter time
period and give consideration to the potential
Assets and receptors with design lives
shorter than 100 years have been considered
in the assessment (for example, runways,
taxiways), and the temporal scale of the
climate change projections used are in-line
with those design lives as described in
Section 10.4. This consideration of different
design lives, replacement and maintenance
cycles and impact thresholds has been used
in the development of environmental
measures as described in Section 10.5 of
this chapter and the principles of the Climate
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.10 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
PINS ID number Scoping Opinion comment How is this addressed?
for likely significant effects to arise in relation
to these elements.
Change Adaptation Plan (CCAP) (Appendix 10.1).
These assets are not considered to be
’decommissioned’ as they enter replacement
and maintenance cycles during the
operational phase.
57 The ES should set out the assumptions and
uncertainties in the projections and explain
how these have informed the climate change
risk and resilience assessments and
influenced the design of the Proposed
Development.
Assumptions and uncertainties in the climate
change projections used, and how that is
considered in the climate change hazard
assessment carried out for both the ICCI and
CCR assessments, have been described in
Section 10.7 and Section 10.8 of this
chapter.
58 The ES should explain the duration of any
temporary effects, ensuring consistency with
the other aspect assessments.
Consideration of temporary effects is
inherently incorporated into the assessment
as the initial significance of effect identified
by the aspect chapter (for instance, without
climate change) is the starting point of the
ICCI assessment, and temporary effects are
considered in the consequence criteria
identified for the CCR assessment in Table 10.16.
59 The final study areas for the ICCI and CCR
assessments should encompass the Proposed
Development and any associated development
that the Applicant tends to include within its
application for development consent.
Both the ICCI and CCR assessments
encompass the DCO Project and any
associated development within the Site.
60 The Inspectorate advises that the ES should
clearly explain which mitigation measures
would be ‘embedded’ and which would
comprise further or additional mitigation
including those incorporated into the Climate
Change Adaptation Plan which is intended to
be included in the application for development
consent. The ES should set out how mitigation
measures will be secured through the DCO.
The ES should describe how the adaptation
measures incorporated into a Climate Change
Adaptation Plan will address the need for on-
going review of climate ’hazards‘ and risks.
The assessment defines which
environmental measures are embedded and
which are good practice. Embedded
environmental measures are those directly
included in the design as a result of the ICCI
and CCR assessments. As a result of the
incorporation of the CCAP as an embedded
measure, there are no additional
environmental measures required.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.11 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Technical engagement
10.3.5 Technical engagement has been ongoing with a number of prescribed and non-
prescribed consultation bodies and LPAs in relation to climate change. A summary
of engagement undertaken up to finalisation of this PEIR is outlined in this section.
Environment Agency
10.3.6 Engagement with the Environment Agency has been ongoing since April 2018
through incorporating climate change into the wider regular engagement on flood
risk from all sources, as detailed in Chapter 21: Water environment.
10.3.7 The approach for accounting for the possible effects of climate change in the
Flood Risk Assessment (FRA) and Drainage Impact Assessment (DIA) pays due
regard to local and national policy requirements, which have been discussed with
the Environment Agency as part of the preparation of the FRA and DIA for PEIR
respectively. The specifics can be found in the FRA and DIA which are Appendix 21.4: Flood risk assessment, Volume 3 and Appendix 21.5: Drainage impact assessment, Volume 3, respectively.
10.3.8 The main aim of engagement with the Environment Agency has been to discuss
the consideration of climate change in the assessments of flooding from
groundwater sources and the resultant environmental measures.
10.3.9 Climate change not being considered within the groundwater assessment for PEIR
was discussed, and further engagement to confirm the approach taken for ES will
be carried out in the Summer of 2019. Additionally, the Environment Agency
indicated that they would not be commenting further on climate change issues
outside of the scope of Chapter 21.
Natural England
10.3.10 Engagement with Natural England in relation to the DCO Project has been
ongoing since 11 November 2016 in the form of technical meetings and
workshops, site visits and the sharing of draft technical documentation. Further
engagement with Natural England on the development of climate change
principles for biodiversity environmental measures will be carried out ahead of the
ES.
Public Health England
10.3.11 Heathrow contacted Public Health England (PHE) in November 2017 and May
2018 to invite PHE to be a member of Heathrow Strategic Planning Group (HSPG)
Health Group.
10.3.12 Heathrow met with PHE in March 2019 to discuss assessment methods. The
topics discussed included the scope of, and the method for, the assessment of
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.12 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
human health. Further engagement with PHE on the development of climate
change principles for health environmental measures will be carried out ahead of
the ES.
Heathrow Strategic Planning Group
10.3.13 Engagement with the HSPG has been ongoing since May 2018 in the form of
meetings specific to the climate change approach for the EIA.
10.3.14 The aim of engagement with HSPG has been to share the approach to the climate
change assessment in the PEIR. This includes consideration of impacts with
localised effects.
10.3.15 HSPG sought clarification that certain ICCIs were to be qualitatively included in the
PEIR assessment, such as increased heatwaves impacting air quality and
exacerbating Urban Heat Island effects on communities. These topics are
addressed in Section 10.4.
10.3.16 The approach for accounting for the possible effects of climate change in the FRA
and DIA pays due regard to local and national policy requirements, which have
been discussed with HSPG as part of the preparation of the FRA and DIA for PEIR
respectively. The specifics can be found in the FRA and DIA which are Appendix 21.4 and Appendix 21.5 respectively.
Scope of the assessment
Overview
10.4.1 This section describes the spatial and temporal scope for the assessment as it
applies to climate change and outlines the receptors on which assessment has
been undertaken (Table 10.4 and Table 10.5).
10.4.2 The scope has been developed as the DCO Project has evolved, and responds to
feedback received to date, as detailed in Section 10.3. The information presented
in the PEIR is by its nature preliminary and in accordance with PINS Advice Note
Seven, should not be considered a ‘draft’ ES but can be presented in this way if
appropriate. Further scope refinement may be required to take full account of the
preferred DCO Project design and subsequent engagement.
Spatial scope and study area
In-combination climate change impact assessment
10.4.3 The study area for the ICCI assessment has been defined by the study area
boundaries for each of the environmental aspects (refer to relevant chapters of this
PEIR, from Chapter 7: Air quality and odour to Chapter 21).
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.13 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
10.4.4 The most representative 25km2 UKCP18 grid square for the DCO Project provided
the relevant climate data for the ICCI assessment. Where the most appropriate
data was from the 12km2 regional projections within UKCP18, the relevant grid
square for this dataset was used instead (Met Office, 2018) (Graphic 10.1).
Graphic 10.1: UKCP18 representative 25km2 and 12km2 grid squares, relevant to the DCO Project
Climate change resilience assessment
10.4.5 The study area for the CCR assessment comprised:
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.14 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
1. The land within the existing airport boundary
2. The land within the Site for the DCO Project.
10.4.6 The study area includes associated developments, as described in Chapter 6.
10.4.7 The most relevant 25km2 UKCP18 grid square for the DCO Project provided the
relevant climate data for the assessment. Where the most appropriate data was
from the 12km2 regional projections within UKCP18, the relevant grid square for
this dataset was used instead (Met Office, 2018) (Graphic 10.1).
Temporal scope
10.4.8 The potential impacts of climate change increase over time. Therefore, in the
assessments of climate change within this chapter, the potential impacts
experienced by the receptor or asset will be largest at the end of its design life.
Where assets are assumed to be in operation in perpetuity, potential impacts will
be greatest at the furthest extent of the UKCP18 projections (Met Office, 2018).
Construction
10.4.9 Construction works are planned to commence in 2022 and activities will be phased
over a period of 28 years. Therefore, 2050 is used for construction activities to
represent the reasonable worst-case approach.
Operation
10.4.10 For receptors or assets that are in place in perpetuity, the end of the 21st century is
taken as the most relevant time to assess climate change impacts in-line with
UKCP18 projections (Met Office, 2018). Therefore, neither the ‘core’ assessment
years (key years relating to milestones in the construction and operational phases
of the DCO Project, Section 5.4 of Chapter 5) or ‘additional’ assessment years
(years likely to result in the reasonable worst case effects for a particular aspect,
Section 5.4 of Chapter 5), are relevant to the assessment of climate change.
Instead the estimated end of the design life of each receptor or asset is used.
10.4.11 The assessment year used for each receptor or asset is implicitly the reasonable
worst-case as climate change impacts increase over time.
Project parameters and reasonable worst case
10.4.12 As outlined in Chapter 5, to provide flexibility in the design of the DCO Project
post grant of the DCO and at the same time maintain a rigorous EIA process, a
reasonable worst-case approach has been taken for each aspect assessment. For
the purposes of defining a reasonable worst case for climate change, a
conservative approach has been taken to the design lives of receptors and assets
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.15 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
for the climate change assessments. The Representative Concentration Pathway
(RCP) 8.5 UKCP18 emissions scenario (Met Office, 2018) (the ‘high’ emission
scenario) has been used to assess climate change effects.
Receptors
Introduction
10.4.13 This section describes the receptors considered in the ICCI and CCR
assessments.
In-combination climate change impact assessment
10.4.14 The spatial and temporal scope of the assessment enables the identification of
receptors that may experience a change because of the DCO Project. The
receptors identified for climate change ICCI assessment are outlined in Table 10.4.
10.4.15 The ICCI assessment considers the extent to which climate change exacerbates
effects on PEIR aspect receptors which have already been identified in Chapter 7: Air quality and odour through to Chapter 21.
10.4.16 The following aspects were scoped out of the ICCI assessment: Chapter 16: Major accidents and disasters, as this included consideration of climate change
within its assessment already; and Chapter 19: Transport network users, where
any impacts of climate change to the aspect have been considered as part of the
CCR assessment.
Table 10.4: Aspects scoped into the in-combination climate change impact assessments
Receptor group Receptors included within group
Air quality and odour receptors (Chapter 7) Residential and commercial properties, educational and
medical facilities, businesses.
Biodiversity receptors (Chapter 8) Terrestrial and freshwater habitats, including the species
present within them.
Carbon receptors (Chapter 9) Global atmosphere.
Community receptors (Chapter 11) People and homes, community facilities (including sport
and leisure facilities) and public services, and recreation
and amenity resources.
Human health receptors (Chapter 12) Residents, users and operators of community, open space
and sports facilities, Heathrow colleagues, healthcare
facilities and operators, users of schools and medical and
social care facilities, passengers, road users and visitors to
communities.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.16 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Receptor group Receptors included within group
Historic environment receptors (Chapter 13) Cultural heritage assets including but not limited to listed
buildings, scheduled monuments, and registered parks and
gardens.
Land quality receptors (Chapter 14) Surface and groundwater resources, and human
populations within construction sites or at residential,
commercial and industrial land or property.
Landscape and visual receptors (Chapter 15)
Landscape and townscape characteristics and settings,
including residential properties, viewpoints and recreational
routes.
Noise receptors (Chapter 17) Residents in terms of individual dwellings and on a wider
community basis, including community open areas, and
community facilities.
Socio-economics and employment receptors (Chapter 18)
Local businesses and commercial interests, local residents,
and providers of skills, employment and training services,
including schools, higher education facilities and local
training providers.
Waste receptors (Chapter 20) Landfill facilities located off-site.
Water environment receptors (Chapter 21) Groundwater and surface waterbodies, sources of public
water supply and foul drainage infrastructure as defined by
the aspect. Flood risk receptors surrounding the DCO
Project.
10.4.17 The list of receptors is kept under review during the EIA, as more detailed
information is obtained during baseline surveys and other forms of data collection
by other aspects. This will be reflected in the ES.
Climate change resilience assessment
10.4.18 The receptors in the CCR assessment are the assets shown in Chapter 6, divided
into the activities they support. The asset groups are described in Table 10.5.
Table 10.5: Assets scoped into the climate change resilience assessment
Phase Asset groups
Construction Construction of all built assets, Heathrow colleagues facilities, and access routes to
the Site.
Operation Runways, taxiways and aprons, including operations and aircraft.
New terminal and associated buildings, including airside facilities.
Existing, upgraded and new surface access routes (A Roads and M25), Southern
Road Tunnel, car parking facilities and airside roads.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.17 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Phase Asset groups
Drainage and pollution control assets.
Fuel assets.
Flood alleviation and storage infrastructure, fire water and energy storage assets.
On and off-site electrical facilities and utilities corridors.
Airfield telecoms.
Earthworks.
10.4.19 All asset groups have been considered in the scope of the CCR assessment
methodology in Section 10.6 because, based on UKCP18 projections (Met Office,
2018), they are likely to experience effects from climate change.
10.4.20 Only assets developed as part of the DCO Project were considered in the CCR
assessment. A qualitative assessment of the overall resilience to climate change
for the whole of Heathrow Airport will be provided within the Climate Change
Adaptation Plan (CCAP), which will be delivered alongside the ES. This will
include: the adaptive capacity of Heathrow Airport Limited; broader risks from
interdependent infrastructure such as electricity, gas, transport, and
telecommunications networks; effects on destination airports and their networks;
and supply chain risks.
Identification of potential effects
Potential effects (in-combination climate change impact assessment)
10.4.21 Potential effects on climate change ICCI assessment receptors that have been
scoped in for assessment are summarised in Table 10.6.
Table 10.6: Potential effects from in-combination climate change impacts on receptors
Activity Effect Receptor or receptor group
Construction
Increase in noise, dust, odour, NO2 and particulate matter (PM) emissions from construction vehicles and plant equipment.
Increased noise, dust, odour,
NO2 and PM emissions from the
DCO Project have the potential
to affect human health for those
living or working near to the
construction site and/or traffic
routes for construction vehicles.
There is potential for these
effects to be exacerbated by
Residents, users and operators of
community, open space and sports
facilities, Heathrow colleagues,
healthcare facilities and operators, users
of schools and medical and social care
facilities, passengers, road users and
visitors to communities.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.18 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Activity Effect Receptor or receptor group
severe weather events such as
drought and periods of high
temperatures.
Degradation, disturbance, loss or other changes to habitats or species through construction activities including but not limited to soil compaction, severance of habitats, introduction of pollutants and changes to hydrology.
The DCO Project has the
potential to affect biodiversity.
Severe weather events such as
drought, periods of high
temperatures and floods could
lead to further damage and loss
to habitats or species.
Terrestrial and freshwater habitats,
including the species present within
them.
Displacement, loss or other change to homes, access to services, recreational routes and spaces, transport routes, local environment and economy.
Potential effects on physical and
mental health related to the
displacement of tenants,
changes to social relations,
access to services, open
spaces, active travel routes and
the local environment as a result
of the DCO Project. Severe
weather events including
intense rainfall leading to
flooding, and periods of high
temperatures have the potential
to worsen human health effects
by causing further displacement
or loss and placing more
pressure on health and social
care services.
Residents, users and operators of
community, open space and sports
facilities, Heathrow colleagues,
healthcare facilities and operators, users
of schools and medical and social care
facilities, passengers, road users and
visitors to communities.
Increased level and mobilisation of contaminants within the environment.
Potential effects on human
health, groundwater and surface
water resources because of
increased risk of contamination
from the DCO Project. Intense
rainfall and flooding could
exacerbate these effects by
remobilising contaminants within
floodwater, whilst drier, windier
conditions could increase the
migration of windblown dust.
Surface and groundwater resources, and
human populations on the construction
site or at residential, commercial and
industrial land or property.
Disturbance to the setting of a townscape or landscape together with
The DCO Project has the
potential to negatively affect the
character of the local landscape
and townscape and visual
Landscape and townscape
characteristics and setting, residential
properties, viewpoints and recreational
routes.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.19 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Activity Effect Receptor or receptor group
effects on visual amenity.
receptors. It is possible that
severe weather events such as
drought, or conversely intense
precipitation leading to flooding,
could lead to further
degradation.
Changes and disruptions to local and wider economy and employment.
Potential effects on the
sustainability and viability of
businesses, the economic
activity of residents and wider
economy due to displacement
and changes to the environment
as a result of the DCO Project.
Severe weather events such as
intense rainfall have the
potential to cause further
displacement and disruption
from impacts such as flooding.
Local businesses and commercial
interests, local residents, and providers
of skills, employment and training
services, including schools, higher
education facilities and local training
providers.
Export of construction and demolition waste to hazardous and non-hazardous landfills.
The majority of wastes arising
from the construction phase will
be reused on site. For the
exported waste, not all will be
sent to landfill. However, there
is potential for the waste sent to
landfill to result in decreased
land quality. There is potential
for severe weather events to
exacerbate these negative
effects as high temperatures
and extreme rainfall events can
lead to the production of
leachate.
Third party landfill facility located off-site.
Operation
Increase in noise, dust, odour, NO2 and PM emissions from aircraft operation, airfield activity and vehicles on public highways.
Increased emissions from the
DCO Project have the potential
to affect human health for those
living or working near to the
DCO Project and/or traffic
routes for vehicles. Projected
increases in temperatures and
more frequent dry spells as a
result of climate change have
the potential to further
exacerbate air quality issues by
increasing odour and
tropospheric ozone (O3)
Residents, users and operators of
community, open space and sports
facilities, Heathrow colleagues,
healthcare facilities and operators, users
of schools and medical and social care
facilities, passengers, road users and
visitors to communities.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.20 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Activity Effect Receptor or receptor group
formation from NOx emissions
and PM.
Degradation, disturbance, loss or other changes to habitats or species from changes in the number of vehicles and changes to noise, vibration and light levels amongst others.
The DCO Project has the
potential to affect biodiversity.
Projected increases in
frequency of drought, increase
in temperatures and more
frequent heavy rainfall events
could lead to further damage
and loss to habitats or species
through further increase in toxic
pollutants for example.
Terrestrial and freshwater habitats,
including the species present within
them.
Changes to access to services, recreational routes and spaces, local environment and economy.
Potential effects on physical and
mental health due to additional
noise and pollutant emissions,
changes to safety and access to
services, lifestyles and social
cohesion during the DCO
Project’s operation. Climate
hazards such as severe events
including storms and heatwaves
could further exacerbate these
health effects by placing
additional pressure on services
or preventing active travel, for
example.
Residents, users and operators of
community, open space and sports
facilities, Heathrow colleagues,
healthcare facilities and operators, users
of schools and medical and social care
facilities, road users and visitors to
communities.
Changes to community facilities (including sports and leisure facilities), community facing business and recreational routes and spaces.
Potential effects on the viability,
sustainability and accessibility of
community facilities which have
been subject to changes in
amenity due to the DCO Project.
Projected increases in climate
hazards such as flooding have
the potential to impact
accessibility and usability of
outdoor recreation facilities for
example. Conversely, extreme
heat has the potential to further
affect the functionality of
community and public services
facilities due to overheating.
Community facilities (including sport and
leisure facilities) and public services, and
recreation and amenity resources.
Loss of flood plain storage and changes to extent of fluvial floodplain, reduced recharge or locally
The DCO Project has the
potential to alter surface water
capacity and groundwater flow
levels during the operational
phase. Projected climate
Groundwater and surface waterbodies.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.21 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Activity Effect Receptor or receptor group
displaced recharge to groundwater supply due to increased impermeable surface and/or diverted flow.
impacts such as more extreme
and frequent rainfall events
coupled with changes to flood
plain have the potential to
increase the intensity of flood
events. An increase in droughts
as a result of climate change
also has the potential to
exacerbate effects on
groundwater levels.
Construction and operation
Displacement, loss or other change to homes, community facilities (including sports and leisure facilities), community facing businesses and recreational routes and spaces.
Potential effects on the viability,
sustainability and accessibility to
services, changes to the social
cohesion and demographic
profile of communities as a
result of the displacement of
tenants and owners of
residential property due to land
take from the DCO Project.
Projected climate change
impacts such as increased
frequency of severe rainfall
leading to flooding could
exacerbate these effects by
causing further displacement
and disruption.
Residents, users and operators of
community, open space and sports
facilities, Heathrow colleagues,
healthcare facilities and operators, users
of schools and medical and social care
facilities, passengers, road users and
visitors to communities.
Material change, damage or loss of significance for the historic environment.
Potential effects for cultural
heritage assets within or
adjacent to the development site
could occur as a result of site
clearance in preparation for
construction and would likely
persist during the operational
phase. It is possible that
increased frequency and
severity of extreme rainfall as a
result of climate change could
cause further damage, such as
water damage, to cultural assets
affected by the DCO Project.
Cultural heritage assets including but not
limited to listed buildings, scheduled
monuments, and registered parks and
gardens.
Disturbance to the setting of a townscape or landscape together with effects on visual amenity.
The DCO Project has the
potential to negatively affect the
character of the local landscape,
townscape and visual receptors.
It is possible that the projected
Landscape and townscape
characteristics and setting, residential
properties, viewpoints and recreational
routes.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.22 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Activity Effect Receptor or receptor group
increase in drought conditions
and hotter wetter conditions as
a result of climate change could
lead to degradation of
landscapes affected by the DCO
Project.
Changes to ground and surface water flow and quality, increase in water demand and increased discharge of foul drainage.
The DCO Project has the
potential to alter the flow and
quality of surface and
groundwater, and lead to an
increase in water demand.
Projected climate change
impacts, such as more extreme
precipitation events and
increased climate variability,
could exacerbate these effects
through mobilising pollutants
and placing further pressure on
public water supply.
Groundwater and surface waterbodies,
sources of public water supply and foul
drainage infrastructure.
Potential effects (climate change resilience assessment)
10.4.22 Potential effects on climate change CCR assessment receptors that have been
scoped in for assessment are summarised in Table 10.7.
Table 10.7: Potential effects of climate change on asset groups
Phase Effect Asset groups
Construction Extreme weather events or climatic events (such as
strong winds) resulting in effects on the resilience of
construction equipment and resulting in delays to
construction programme and associated costs and/or
unacceptable safety risks.
Extreme weather events or climatic events (such as
heavy rainfall) resulting in effects on the viability of and
access to construction sites (such as heavy rain resulting
in surface water flooding of local roads, sources of power
supply or inundation of construction sites).
Construction of all built
assets, Heathrow colleagues
facilities and access routes
to the Site.
Operation Climate-related hazards such as increased intensity of
precipitation events have the potential to result in
hazardous conditions for operation of vehicles and
planes, slowing operations and causing delays. Increased
intensity of wind events also has the potential to cause
disruption to runway utilisation and schedules.
Runways, taxiways and
aprons, including operations
and aircraft.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.23 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Phase Effect Asset groups
Runways and taxiways are also at risk of damage from
climate related hazards. Water damage from increased
precipitation can affect the runway and underground
foundations, structures or services. Increased summer
temperature and increased winter temperature variability
also has the potential to cause damage to the tarmac and
asphalt and effect operations.
Climate-related hazards have the potential to cause
damage to the building and structure fabric. Projected
increases in extreme precipitation events could lead to
water ingress and high wind events could damage the
exterior of buildings or cause failure of equipment.
The facilities required for the building to operate could
also become damaged. Extreme precipitation events
could lead to flooding of the terminal buildings and the
ancillary infrastructure whilst drought could reduce the
potable water availability required for the terminal’s
operation. Overheating from increased summer
temperature due to inadequate heating, ventilation and
air-conditioning (HVAC) systems is also a risk.
New terminal and associated
buildings, including airside
facilities.
Climate change related weather events have the potential
to result in increased risk of surface or structural failure,
warping of slabs, excessive movement at joints and
difficulty in maintaining asphalt surface. There is also the
potential for flooding of road networks and for wind to
create or distribute debris to these areas.
These aspects, when taken individually or in-combination,
could affect the integrity and efficiency of the road and rail
network to different degrees. However, each aspect
ultimately reduces their efficacy as a transport
mechanism.
Upgraded and new surface
access assets (A-roads and
motorway), Southern Road
Tunnel, car parking facilities
and airside roads.
Climate change can exacerbate acute and chronic
impacts on foul, non-potable and surface water
infrastructure. Most notably this relates to the increase in
peak rainfall associated with extreme events and
combined effects of extreme rainfall after cold snaps
leading to de-icer runoff.
Drainage and pollution
control assets.
Climate change can exacerbate acute and chronic
impacts on fuel and transfer assets due to an increase of
flood risk from fluvial, pluvial or groundwater, increase in
fire risk during hot days, and increased risk in damage to
fuel operations due to lightning strikes.
Fuel assets.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.24 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Phase Effect Asset groups
Flood water management infrastructure can be stressed
by exacerbation of flood events under future climates.
Flood alleviation and storage
infrastructure, fire water and
energy storage assets.
Climate change-related weather events have the potential
to damage the over and underground electricity network.
This can be through direct contact (for example, flooding
or wind damage), or through damage to structures or
buildings supporting this network (for example, heat
buckling of HV cables, subsidence).
There is likely to be significant resilience in the electricity
network with alternative supplies available. Multiple
events over a short timescale are likely to have the
greatest impact as these will inhibit any maintenance
activities.
On and off-site electrical
facilities and utilities
corridors.
Climate change can exacerbate acute and chronic
impacts on fuel storage and transfer assets, particularly
through extreme weather events such as storms.
Airfield telecoms.
Variable groundwater levels affect asset integrity and
could cause subsidence and water ingress damage to
earthworks, underground structures, foundations and
platforms. This has knock-on effects on many of the
assets listed.
Earthworks.
Embedded environmental measures
10.5.1 The DCO Project will consider a number of environmental measures to avoid or
minimise likely significant effects. This approach is described in Chapter 5. Some
of these environmental measures have been embedded into the DCO Project
design. Those embedded environmental measures that influence the assessment
of climate change (ICCI and CCR assessments) are set out in Table 10.8, and the
good practice environmental measures included are in Table 10.9.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.25 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Table 10.8: Summary of the embedded environmental measures in the design and how these influence the climate change assessment for both the ICCI and CCR assessments
Receptor / asset group
Changes and effects Embedded environmental measures and influence on assessment
Project-wide. All built assets and relevant environmental receptors.
Operational resilience of the DCO Project reduced over time as conditions increase the likelihood, frequency and/or intensity of climatic and environmental hazards and their subsequent impacts on Heathrow.
The overall approach to ensuring Heathrow is resilient to climate change is set out in the Principles of the Climate Change Adaptation Plan (CCAP), provided in Appendix 10.1. The full CCAP, to be delivered in support of the ES, will set out the requirements for the consideration of climate change throughout the design process, and embedding ongoing climate change resilience following DCO submission, including post-DCO design stages and operational phase. The CCAP will remain live and will undergo further development post-DCO. The CCAP will be in-line with the upcoming ISO 14090: Adaptation to climate change, due for publication in summer 2019. Specific climate change environmental measures embedded into the design for PEIR are:
1. Consideration of climate change in all drainage infrastructure and flood retention
infrastructure. Requirements for consideration of climate change impacts on
groundwater levels, soil moisture content and precipitation are included in the
construction and design of earthworks and structures in-line with the relevant
standards).
2. As set out in Section 4 of Appendix 21.5, an allowance for climate change has
been incorporated into the water treatment element of the airfield drainage
strategy. An appropriate factor of safety has been incorporated into the
preliminary designs to safeguard against adverse changes in climate in the
relatively short term, i.e. 10 to 15 years. For changes in climate beyond the
factor of safety incorporated into the design (likely to be longer term changes in
climate), an adaptive management approach of managed adaptation would be
employed, whereby the water treatment capacity could be improved in future
(perhaps through advances in water treatment technology in the meantime) if
climate change is found to be progressing in a direction that indicated that water
treatment capacity was insufficient. A threshold of Biological Oxygen Demand
(BOD) increase or failure rate will be developed to identify when an adaptation is
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.26 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Receptor / asset group
Changes and effects Embedded environmental measures and influence on assessment
required. An adaptive management approach requires a flexible design, such as
one that allows the depth of the gravel substrate to be increased, for example.
The feasibility and practicality of undertaking such an approach will be
considered when designing the co-located water treatment and attenuation
areas.
3. An allowance for climate change has been incorporated into the design of
pollution capture assets (see Section 4 of the Drainage Impact Assessment
(Appendix 21.5)).
4. Appendix 21.4 confirms that the DCO Project design is NPPF compliant
(DCLG, 2019), and therefore considers the impacts of climate change. It
confirms that the proposed design has been developed to avoid areas of known
flood risk wherever possible in line with the sequential risk-based approach
advocated by NPPF (DCLG, 2019). Where there are exceptions to this rule the
PEIR FRA presents a range of potential additional environmental measures to
ensure safe NPPF compliant development.
5. Water efficiencies are built into the DCO Project through Appendix 20.1: Draft resources management plan, Volume 3. This enables an increase in the level
of efficiency in water use per passenger, therefore increases resilience to
drought events.
6. The design standards for buildings will include minimum requirements for
ambient design temperatures, wind pressures and snow loads. The adequacy of
these standards will be assessed throughout the detailed design stage ahead of
submission of the ES.
7. The heating and cooling loads for terminal buildings have been calculated using
relevant future weather files. These have been used in the calculation of the
sizing of the thermal stores.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.27 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Receptor / asset group
Changes and effects Embedded environmental measures and influence on assessment
8. Concepts within relevant international and national guidance for embedding
climate change into technical standards will be embedded within the further
design of all assets. A range of other emerging standards for climate change
adaptation will also be considered in the development of the CCAP through the
design of assets.
Project-wide Disruption as a result of climate change impacts delays to recover and return to normal operations.
Various elements of the Masterplan increase resilience by building redundancy into Heathrow’s operations. These relate to spatial elements of the design rather than the asset design which will be covered in the CCAP. These include:
1. Multiple surface access points from M25 instead of single junction option
2. Inclusion of Southern Road Tunnel
3. Provision of additional power intake from National Grid. Furthermore, the replacement of aging assets with new assets designed with the Climate Change Adaptation Plan in place increases the overall resilience of Heathrow to climate change.
Biodiversity / Landscape and visual
Climate change exacerbates
the effect the DCO Project has
on surrounding biodiversity,
landscape and visual
receptors.
Landscape planting will take into consideration climate change in the selection of appropriate species for planting and through adequate monitoring post-planting. Consideration of climate change in the landscaping design will be incorporated into the Habitat Creation requirements included in the ES.
Biodiversity / Landscape / Green Infrastructure
Climate change exacerbates the effect the DCO Project has on biodiversity and landscape receptors.
Climate change is being built into the environmental measures developed for biodiversity and landscape as they develop. For example, the role of green and blue infrastructure in increasing resilience to climate change will be acknowledged in the landscape design. This includes sustainable water systems, permeable surfacing, shading (of rivers, spaces and buildings) and/or maintenance of connectivity for species, as well as adequate monitoring.
Health Climate change exacerbates the effect the DCO Project has on health.
Potential Urban Heat Island effects are mitigated as far as practicable through the use of appropriate landscaping, planting and building design, including planting large areas of the new airfield with grassland.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.28 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Receptor / asset group
Changes and effects Embedded environmental measures and influence on assessment
Potential overheating effects in replacement buildings are mitigated by all replacement buildings being designed in line with the climate change adaptation requirements of the relevant Local Plans, as defined in Appendix 2.1.
Land quality Climate change exacerbates the effect the DCO Project has on land quality.
The new infrastructure will be designed in accordance with relevant standards which include the mitigation of aggressive ground conditions and geohazards as part of design requirements.
Table 10.9: Summary of the good practice environmental measures and how these influence the climate change assessment
Receptor / asset group
Changes and effects Good practice environmental measures and influence on assessment
Project-wide Operational resilience of the
DCO Project reduced over
time as conditions increase
the likelihood, frequency
and/or intensity of climatic
and environmental hazards
and their subsequent impacts
on Heathrow.
Heathrow has a resilience framework in place to ensure operational resilience to infrastructure failures and environmental hazards, as well as a range of other risks not related to climate change. The framework is developed through a cycle of anticipation, assessment, preparation, review and learning. It is detailed in Chapter 16. The resilience framework includes the procedures to be followed in the event of an incident,
and includes responses to risks outside of Heathrow’s control, such as drought during
construction and operational phases, loss of external utilities or services and the
mismanagement of floodplains by third parties.
Heathrow has incorporated climate change risk assessment into its processes through Climate Change Adaptation Reporting in 2011 and 2016. Monitoring is employed across various assets:
1. Monitoring impact of torrential rain on airside and landside road vehicles and
planes is in place as good practice.
2. Surface condition on extreme temperature days are monitored by airside and
landside operations teams to ensure safe operations.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.29 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Receptor / asset group
Changes and effects Good practice environmental measures and influence on assessment
3. Monitoring of movement of birds across Heathrow Airport has been ongoing
since 2011, with the results fed into the Heathrow Bird Strike Group. Biodiversity
Action plans monitor species on sites. This good practice will follow the
requirements of the CCAP to ensure environmental measures are put in place if
and when required.
4. Monitoring of weather trends to reduce risk from lightning and storms is in place.
Good practice design is employed across various assets as standard:
1. Recent assessments and developments of existing fire main means current
operations sufficient to mitigate risk of increased fires during heatwaves. Good
practice will be extended to the new assets.
2. New underground utilities are not laid at shallow depths to avoid damage due to
temperature extremes during excavations.
3. New de-icing facilities are incorporated into the DCO Project.
4. Lightning protection units installed where risks to sub-components is high.
Redundancy in power intake due to three separate intakes from National Grid
already existing and another including in the DCO Project.
5. All roads, buildings, utilities and airfield assets will be designed for the climatic
conditions experienced at the end of their operational life cycle, using appropriate
design guidance. The design will be progressed between PEIR and ES. In each
case, the replacement and repair cycles of sub-assets will be considered. For
example, for roads, relaying of road surface, or replacement of sub-base will
have substantially different lifespans.
Good practice planning and operational procedures in evidence at Heathrow will be continued
and expanded to include all relevant elements of the DCO Project:
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.30 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Receptor / asset group
Changes and effects Good practice environmental measures and influence on assessment
1. Airport fire service embedded in Operational Resilience Plan (Heathrow Airport
Limited, 2015). Good practice of working with fuels and research into spill clean-
up operations in hotter climates and increased intensity of heatwaves.
2. Continued implementation of the Heathrow Winter Resilience Enquiry (2011)
recommendations, including continual development of the snow removal plan.
Construction processes (impact of environmental hazards on process)
Construction delays and
unexpected costs as a result
of severe weather impacts.
The contractors will use a short to medium range weather forecasting service from the Met
Office, or other approved meteorological data and weather forecast provider, to inform short to
medium-term programme management, environmental control and impact mitigation
measures. The contractors will register with the EA’s flood warning service in areas of flood
risk.
Construction processes (impact of environmental hazards on process)
Construction delays and
unexpected costs as a result
of severe weather impacts.
A high-level risk assessment of severe weather impacts on the construction process will be
produced by the main contractor to inform mitigations. Any receptors and/or construction-
related operations and activities potentially sensitive to severe weather events should be
considered in the assessment. Climate change projections will be considered in the risk
assessments.
Construction processes (impact of environmental hazards on process)
Construction delays and
unexpected costs as a result
of severe weather impacts.
The main contractors’ Environmental Management System (EMS) should consider all
measures deemed necessary and appropriate to manage severe weather events and should
as a minimum cover training of personnel and prevention and monitoring arrangements. As
appropriate, construction method statements should also consider severe weather events
where risks have been identified.
Air Quality and odour receptors
Odours emitted through
evaporation of aviation fuel
and fuel used by Ground
Support Equipment.
Evaporative emissions
increased during hotter
weather.
Monitoring and proposed environmental measures detailed in Chapter 7, such as maintaining the current procedure of a rapid response to fuel spillages.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.31 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Receptor / asset group
Changes and effects Good practice environmental measures and influence on assessment
Historic Environment receptors
Future changes in the
precipitation regime can lead
to changes in the
groundwater level, which
could result in potential
damage to archaeological or
paleoenvironmental remains.
The environmental measures to mitigate potential damage to archaeological or paleoenvironmental remains due changes in groundwater level include: measures to avoid changes to groundwater flows; measures to identify and assess receptors susceptible to groundwater changes; and actions to avoid dewatering as far as practicable. This will be further developed as part of ES.
Land quality receptors
Increase in flooding, high
temperatures, and wetter
conditions may increase
leaching of contaminants
from soils and increase the
amount of landfill leachate
generated.
In the cases where new landfills are created by the DCO Project, these will be compliant with the Landfill Directive (2001) as transposed by The Environmental Permitting (England and Wales) Regulations 2016 (refer to Section 14.10: Assessment of land quality effects).
Community Climate change exacerbates the effect the DCO Project has on surrounding communities.
The design of all replacement outdoor sports facilities will follow guidance set out by Sport England. For example, the Natural Turf for Sport - Design Guidance Note (Sport England, 2011) includes specific reference to climate change. All replacement buildings will be designed in line with the climate change adaptation requirements of the relevant Local Plans, as defined in Appendix 2.1. All surface transport infrastructure will be designed to Environment Agency guidance on Flood risk assessments: climate change allowances and the principles of the Transport Strategy for London.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.32 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Methodology for baseline data gathering
10.6.1 Baseline data collection has been undertaken to obtain information over the study
areas described in Section 10.4. This section presents the approach to collecting
baseline data. The current baseline conditions presented in Section 10.9 sets out
data currently available information from the study area.
10.6.2 Baseline data collected through desk studies has been obtained in line with the
policy and legislation set out in Section 10.2. Surveys have not been required
specifically for the ICCI or CCR assessments, although the ICCI assessment relies
upon surveys carried out in other aspects.
Desk study
10.6.3 A summary of the organisations that have supplied supplementary survey data,
together with the nature of that data is outlined in Table 10.10.
Table 10.10: Data sources used to inform the climate change assessment
Organisation Data provided* Data time period Date received
Defra / Met Office: UKCP18
Gridded observation data at both 25km
and 12km spatial resolution.
Baseline time period
(1981 – 2000).
Data was obtained
from the UKCP18
online user interface
in December 2018.
Defra / Met Office: UKCP18
Probabilistic climate change projections
for the UK at 25km spatial resolution. In
line with the ANPS (Department for
Transport, 2018) and NN NPS
(Department for Transport, 2014), data
for the 10%, 50% and 90% probability
levels for the high emissions scenarios
was obtained.
Future time periods.
From 1980 to 2099.
Data was obtained
from the UKCP18
online user interface
in December 2018.
Defra / Met Office: UKCP18
Regional land projections at 12km
spatial resolution.
Future time periods.
From 1980 to 2080.
Data was obtained
from the UKCP18
online user interface
and the Centre for
Environmental Data
Analysis (CEDA)
Data Catalogue in
December 2018.
Defra / Met Office: UKCP18
Technical notes, including:
1. UKCP18 Science Overview
report
2. UKCP18 Land projections:
Science report
The technical notes
provide information
on both baseline and
future time periods.
Reports were
downloaded directly
from UKCP18’s
website in December
2018.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.33 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Organisation Data provided* Data time period Date received
3. UKCP18 Factsheets.
Met Office Heathrow weather station historical
hourly weather data set (temperature,
rainfall, maximum gust, mean wind
speed, wind direction).
1960 – 2016. August 2017.
Heathrow Report: Climate Change Adaptation
and Resilience Progress Report.
Current and future
climate baseline
information.
Report downloaded
October 2018.
* Refer to Section 10.10 for a full reference of the data and documents downloaded from online websites.
Assessment methodology for PEIR
Assessment methodology evolution
10.7.1 At this stage in the development of the EIA, the DCO Project is still under
development and is the subject of statutory consultation. The likely significant
environmental effects are presented at this preliminary stage. Further, more
detailed assessment work will be undertaken between PEIR and preparation of the
ES on the final DCO Project.
10.7.2 The methodology for the ES may therefore develop further from that used for the
PEIR. Anticipated changes in the assessment methodology are summarised in
Table 10.11, with reasons for any likely amendments detailed.
Table 10.11: Assessment methodology for the PEIR and ES
Effect Assessment methodology used for this PEIR
Assessment methodology to be used for the ES
ICCI The ICCI assessment is reliant on information being gathered and assessed by each aspect. Preliminary survey and modelling information was used to assess climate change exacerbation of impacts for the PEIR.
Supplementary survey data (for example, Biodiversity) and modelling (for example, Flood Risk) mean that the ICCI assessment methodology will be refined from PEIR to ES to incorporate new information.
ICCI and CCR
The climate hazards assessment used the elements of UKCP18 that were available during the preparation of the PEIR.
The climate hazards assessment will be updated to include elements of UKCP18 due in 2019, most notably the 2.2km projections. A more detailed consideration of combinations of tools from UKCP18 will be deployed to cover specific issues where appropriate.
CCR CCR assessment is based on expert judgement from design leads using the UKCP18 data.
Operational performance statistics will be mapped against weather and climate information to increase understanding of how
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.34 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Effect Assessment methodology used for this PEIR
Assessment methodology to be used for the ES
existing assets and systems respond to stresses, therefore enriching the evidence base.
CCR CCR assessment based on core UKCP18 data.
CCR assessment will incorporate more radical changes in climate using sensitivity analyses where appropriate.
10.7.3 The generic project-wide approach to the assessment methodology is set out in
Chapter 5. This has informed the approach used in the assessments of climate
change in this chapter.
10.7.4 The methodology outlined in this section is split into the climate hazards
assessment, the ICCI assessment and CCR assessment. The climate hazards
assessment is required by both the ICCI and CCR assessments and so is
described separately.
Climate hazards assessment
10.7.5 Both the ICCI and CCR assessments are reliant on an understanding of the
climate hazards that have the potential to affect the Site. The changes in climate
variables have been assessed for the future years 2030s (2020 – 2039), 2050s
(2040 – 2059), 2080s (2070 – 2089) and 2099 for the high emissions scenario,
and are therefore in line with the ANPS (Department for Transport, 2018) and NN
NPS (Department for Transport, 2014). Section 10.4 provides more detail on the
selection of assessment years.
10.7.6 A climate hazard can be defined as a weather or climate event that has the
potential to do harm to an environmental or community receptor, or the built
infrastructure. Reduced summer precipitation is an example of a climate hazard.
10.7.7 A derived climate hazard is a weather or climate related event that has the
potential to occur as a result of a climate hazard but is not directly provided by
UKCP18, for example, reduced summer precipitation leading to drought
conditions.
Climate variables
10.7.8 Where data is available, climate variables for the current baseline and future
climate conditions have been downloaded directly from UKCP18 to inform the
assessments within this chapter. However, where information is not directly
available, hazards have been assessed using either a combination of variables
and/or sources of data and information outside of UKCP18, or from technical
guidance provided alongside UKCP18 (Met Office, 2018). For these derived
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.35 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
hazards, there is no data relating to the probabilistic level of likelihood and so
there is more subjectivity over the likelihood of occurrence.
10.7.9 Descriptions of the climate variables and derived hazards assessed in the climate
hazard assessment are listed in Table 10.12 and Table 10.13.
Table 10.12: Climate variables that have been assessed in the climate hazards assessment
Climate variable Characteristic Description
Temperature Mean winter
temperature
Mean daily temperature in December, January and February
Mean summer
temperature
Mean daily temperature in June, July and August
Number of hot
days
Number of days in a year with daily maximum temperature higher
than 25°C
Number of frost
days
Number of days in a year with daily minimum temperature equal to
or lower than 0°C
Precipitation Mean winter
precipitation
Mean daily precipitation in December, January and February
Mean summer
precipitation
Mean daily precipitation in June, July and August
Peak rainfall Annual number of days per year when precipitation is greater than
25mm per day (Met Office definition of ‘heavy rain’)
Dry spells Number of periods in a year with 10 days or more with no
precipitation
Wind Mean winter
wind speeds
Mean daily wind speeds in December, January and February
Mean summer
wind speeds
Mean daily wind speeds in June, July and August
Strong winds Wind speeds well above average which can cause damage to
receptors and/or assets. Average daily winds speed above 10 m/s
have been considered.
Lightning Lightning
occurrence
Number of lightning days in a year
Fog Winter foggy
days
Number of days with fog (visibility below 1000m) in December,
January and February
Summer foggy
days
Number of days with fog (visibility below 1000m) in June, July and
August
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.36 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Table 10.13: Derived hazards that have been assessed in the climate hazards assessment
Derived hazards Description
Flooding Fluvial flooding, pluvial flooding and groundwater flooding
Droughts Prolonged periods with low rainfall, defined as 10 or more days with rainfall lower than
0.1mm
Fire Naturally occurring wildfires due to climate and environmental conditions (not
intentionally started)
Soil moisture deficit
Depth of rainfall needed to bring the soil moisture content back to field capacity
Heatwaves Defined as 2 days with maximum temperature higher than 29°C and minimum
temperature higher than 15°C
Snow and ice Accumulation of snow and ice during cold weather spells
Storms Active area of low pressure with associated strong winds and precipitation
Extreme rainfall during cold snaps
Peak rainfall (greater than 25mm per day) occurring during cold snap periods
Likelihood
10.7.10 The likelihood of a hazard has been estimated based on the probability of a
specific climate variable being exceeded under future climate change conditions. It
does not give an indication of the magnitude of change. The probability of
exceedance can represent either an intensity value (used mainly for changes in
mean conditions) or a frequency of occurrence (mainly used for more extreme
characteristics). The criteria to assess the level of likelihood are shown in Table 10.14. These are aligned with the levels of likelihood defined in UKCP18 (Met
Office, 2018).
Table 10.14: Criteria to assess likelihood of hazard (based upon UKCP18)
Level of likelihood
Very unlikely Unlikely Possible Likely Very likely
Likelihood of occurrence
<10%
probability
<33%
probability
33% to 66%
probability
>66%
probability
>90%
probability
10.7.11 The approach used to assess likelihood depends on whether probabilistic
projections or quantitative estimates are available for the climate variable of
interest. Probabilistic projections refer to changes in future climate based on an
assessment of climate model uncertainties. Quantitative estimates refer to the
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.37 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
outputs of 12 high-resolution climate futures from climate models at 12km spatial
resolution.
10.7.12 Three approaches have been defined to assess likelihood of hazards. The choice
of approach is dependent on the data available. These are described, in order of
preference and data availability requirements, as follows:
Use of probabilistic projections. This approach is used when probabilistic
projections are available from UKCP18 (Met Office, 2018). In this approach,
the likelihood of increased severity has been estimated using these projections.
The values obtained from UKCP18 (Met Office, 2018) are the anomaly values
(for instance, magnitude of change for each probability level compared to
current baseline value). Hence, the threshold to estimate likelihood has been
set to the current baseline value of the climate variable
Use of land regional projections. This approach is used when probabilistic
projections are not available but results from the regional land projections are
available. The likelihood of the hazard is inferred from the magnitude of change
obtained from the regional land projections, using expert judgement and
available literature. The mean of all the climate models (in 12 models) in the
regional land projections has been used to estimate the future value for the
climate variable. The threshold to estimate the likelihood of exceedance has
been set to the current baseline value. As per the future climate values, the
current baseline value has been estimated using mean values obtained from all
models
Use of UKCP18 technical notes and additional literature. This approach is
used when probabilistic projections and land projections, are not available. In
this approach UKCP18 technical notes and additional local planning policy
literature (listed in Appendix 2.1) have been reviewed to provide insight on the
potential direction of change. The likelihood of a threshold being exceeded has
been inferred using UKCP18 technical notes and other sources of technical
information.
10.7.13 Probabilistic and land regional projections are not available to assess derived
hazards. Hence, the use of UKCP18 technical notes and additional literature
(approach 3 listed above), has been applied to the derived hazards. Due to the
lack of direct climate change projections, the results are presented as a direction
of change (increase, decrease or possible increase) rather than as a likelihood
level.
10.7.14 The regional projections available in UKCP18 (Met Office, 2018) cover the time
period 1980 to 2080, rather than 1980 to 2099 as for the probabilistic and the
global projections. For this reason, the twenty-year period covering 2060 to 2079
available from this dataset, has been used as a surrogate for the 2080s period.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.38 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
10.7.15 For each climate variable and derived hazard, the level of confidence (categorised
into low, medium and high) in the likelihood estimate has been determined by
following the approach described above and then applying expert judgement. In
the instances where probabilistic values are available, the level of confidence has
been set to high. Where results from the UKCP18 (Met Office, 2018) regional
projections were available, the level was set to medium. In all other cases the level
of confidence was set to low.
10.7.16 The results of the climate hazard assessment are described in Section 10.9.
Assumption and limitations related to climate projections
10.7.17 A limitation of the climate change projections data arises from the absence of
probabilistic projections for all relevant climate variables and hazards. The level of
information (for example, quantitative data, publications) also varies depending on
the climate variable. The existence of probabilistic projections and available
information have been used to provide an estimate on the level of confidence in
the likelihood and direction of changes in climate.
10.7.18 The time period covered by the regional projections is 1980 to 2080, and not 1980
to 2099, which is a limitation in the analysis of climate parameters for which
probabilistic projections are not available. The 12km spatial resolution regional
projections are only available from 1980 – 2080. This is because the regional
projections at 12km spatial resolution were originally run as part of UKCP18 (Met
Office, 2018) to drive the 2.2km spatial resolution model. This latter model
required data only for 1980-2000, 2020-2040 and 2060-2080.
10.7.19 Several products from UKCP18 were not available at the time of preparation of the
PEIR. In those cases, alternative data products have been used to complete the
climate hazard assessment. The currently unavailable products and the
alternatives used at this stage are:
1. Regional land projections at 2.2km spatial resolution for all climate variables
are not currently available in UKCP18 (Met Office, 2018). These are unlikely to
be available until June 2019. Regional land projections at 12km have therefore
been used in this PEIR
2. Information on climate change effects on lightning and fog is not currently
available in UKCP18 (Met Office, 2018). The information available from
UKCP09 has therefore been used in this PEIR. If further information becomes
available later, this will be considered in the ES.
10.7.20 Further analysis of UKCP18, including combining different tools to gain an
increased richness of information, will be carried out for the ES where appropriate.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.39 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
In-combination climate change impact assessment
Introduction
10.7.21 The ICCI assessment assesses the extent to which climate change exacerbates
an effect on an environmental receptor listed in Table 10.4.
10.7.22 The ICCI assessment methodology has been developed in-line with the Institute of
Environmental Management and Assessment (IEMA) – ’Environmental Impact
Assessment Guide to Climate Change Resilience and Adaptation’ (IEMA, 2015).
10.7.23 This section describes the key terms used within the ICCI assessment and the
methodology followed.
Key terms
10.7.24 The following key terms and definitions relating to the ICCI assessment have been
used:
1. A climate hazard is a weather or climate related event that has the potential to
do harm to an environmental or community receptor or resource considered in
the ICCI assessment. An example of a climate hazard is reduced summer
precipitation
2. A climate impact can be any type of damage (to the infrastructure or assets, or
the case of ICCI to the effects of the DCO Project) as a result of a climate
hazard affecting the ability of the receptor or resource to maintain its function or
purpose. A climate impact can be direct, for example drying out of soils, or
indirect, for example, limited tree growth because of soil moisture deficit
3. An ICCI results when a climate change impact increases or decreases the
effect of the DCO Project on an environmental receptor. For example, the
biodiversity aspect may identify an effect on an environmental receptor (such as
severance of semi-natural woodland) arising from the DCO Project. In addition,
the climate hazard (for example, drought) will lead to a climate change impact
(for example, reduced vegetation growth), the ICCI is the exacerbation of the
original effect identified by the environmental aspect. Any environmental
measure in place to reduce the effect of the severance would therefore need to
also consider the future climate conditions
4. The effect of an ICCI is any change to the severity of the effect originally
identified by the environmental aspect due to an ICCI
5. Aspects use different criteria for determining significance, so there is no single
approach to determining the significance of an ICCI. The effect of an ICCI is
therefore considered significant if:
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.40 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
i. An effect which was previously not significant becomes significant
against the significance criteria used by the aspect, due to climate
change (e.g. an increase in consequence of effect or an increase in
scale of change) or
ii. An existing significant effect is exacerbated, against the significance
criteria used by the aspect, due to climate change (e.g. a further
increase in consequence of effect or a further increase in scale of
change).
If an effect was previously not significant and any exacerbation by climate
change does not change this, the ICCI effect is not significant. Professional
judgement of the climate change experts and experts from the relevant aspect
are used to assess whether the effect of the ICCI is significant.
Methodological approach to the In-combination Climate Change Impact assessment
10.7.25 The methodological approach is described in Graphic 10.2.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.41 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Graphic 10.2: Methodological approach to in-combination climate change impact assessment
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.42 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Phase 1 – assessment of in-combination climate change impact likelihood
10.7.26 Phase 1 aims to screen out any ICCIs that are considered too unlikely to occur to
warrant further assessment.
10.7.27 The assessment considered the effects already identified by environmental
aspects based upon their own assessment methodologies. It also identified any
embedded environmental measures proposed by the environmental aspect and
the engineering and design teams.
10.7.28 A longlist of potential ICCIs was formed based on:
1. The initial assessment results from all aspects’ assessments, based on their
own assessment methodologies
2. A literature review of recent guidance, science and policy relating to climate
change impacts on the relevant receptors.
10.7.29 The likelihood of each potential ICCI occurring was then assessed using expert
judgement based on two factors:
1. The likelihood of the climate impact occurring, based on the climate hazard
assessment
2. The likelihood of the climate impact interacting with an effect as identified by an
aspect. This was assessed based on the strength of evidence in the literature
review. This included the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) (Defra,
2017a), and the expert judgement of the climate and environmental specialists
involved in the DCO Project. In assessing this likelihood, the embedded
environmental measures described in Section 10.5 were considered, as well as
embedded environmental measures identified in each aspect chapter.
10.7.30 Due to the uncertainties involved, the potential ICCIs were assessed to be either
‘likely’ or ‘unlikely’. Where the ICCI was deemed ‘unlikely’, either due to the climate
impact being unlikely to occur or there being a weak link between the climate
impact and the effect on a receptor, it was not taken forward to Phase 2.
10.7.31 The output of Phase 1 is a full list of likely ICCIs, which are included in Table 10.20.
Phase 2 – assessment of consequence and significance
10.7.32 Phase 2 assessed the consequence of the likely ICCIs identified in Phase 1, thus
enabling a determination of significance for each.
10.7.33 The assessment of significance was carried out by the climate change aspect and
environmental specialists from the relevant aspects, working in an integrated
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.43 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
manner to provide a qualitative assessment of consequence and therefore
significance of the ICCI.
10.7.34 An ICCI effect has been considered significant if:
1. An effect which was previously not significant becomes significant against the
significance criteria used by the aspect due to climate change (e.g. an increase
in consequence of effect or an increase in scale of change) or
2. An existing significant effect is exacerbated against the significance criteria
used by the aspect due to climate change (e.g. a further increase to in
consequence of effect or a further increase in scale of change).
10.7.35 The spatial extent, duration and time horizon of the climate change impact were
considered when determining whether the effect of the DCO Project on the
environmental receptor in question would be greater due to the impact of climate
change.
10.7.36 Embedded environmental measures have been included within the assessments
of significance presented. Any additional environmental measures for residual
effects will be incorporated into the CCAP if required.
10.7.37 The exception to the approach described here is the assessment for flood risk and
drainage design. A separate FRA has been carried out (Appendix 21.4), which is
quantitative, and follows current Environment Agency guidance on climate change
allowances for increases in peak river flow, but not for other flood risk sources at
the PEIR stage. These other flood risk sources will be considered for the ES.
Climate change resilience assessment
10.7.38 The CCR assessment used a risk-based approach to evaluate whether the climate
resilience of the DCO Project is affected by climate change (for instance, by the
projected change in climate variables described in Section 10.10) within the
anticipated lifetime of its assets and overall operation (considered to be perpetual).
This meets the requirements of the ANPS (Department for Transport, 2018) and
the NN NPS (Department for Transport, 2014). It also satisfies Heathrow’s own
commitments to ’work with our airport partners to ensure that the airport plays its
role in respecting environmental limits, and adapting to the effects of a changing
climate’ (Heathrow Airport Limited, 2019) and ’following Government approval, the
third runway design will be progressed and refined…climate change adaptation
and resilience will be included as key design principles’ (Heathrow Airport Limited,
2016).
10.7.39 Only assets developed as part of the DCO Project were considered in the CCR
assessment. A qualitative assessment of the overall resilience to climate change
of the three runway airport will be provided within the CCAP, delivered alongside
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.44 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
the ES. This will include the adaptive capacity of Heathrow and broader risks from
interdependent infrastructure such as electricity, gas, transport and
telecommunications networks, as well as effects on destination airports and their
networks.
Key terms
10.7.40 The following key terms and definitions relating to the CCR assessment were
used; these are in-line with those used in the UK Climate Change Risk
Assessment 2017 (Defra, 2017a), but have been adapted to suit the CCR
assessment within an EIA context:
1. A climate hazard is a weather or climate related event, which has the potential
to do harm to the infrastructure and assets associated with the DCO Project
considered in the CCR assessment. An example of a climate hazard is a high
precipitation event
2. Vulnerability is the propensity or predisposition of a receptor to be negatively
affected by climate change
3. A climate impact can be any type of damage to the infrastructure or assets or
interference with their ability to operate as a result of a climate hazard – an
impact can be either direct, for example flooding of the infrastructure or assets,
or indirect, for example heat exhaustion of workers
4. A consequence is any negative or positive effect on the DCO Project as a
result of an impact. It can be defined in terms of safety, cost, journey times
and/or public perception
5. Risk combines the likelihood of an impact resulting from a climate hazard on
infrastructure, assets and operations, taking into account environmental
measures, and the consequence resulting from the impact if it occurs.
10.7.41 An example of the resilience of the DCO Project being affected by climate change
is the potential overheating of buildings arising from an increase in high
temperatures. In this example, vulnerability of the asset relates to its initial design
specification. The hazard is the high temperature, and the impact is the
overheating in buildings. One potential consequence could be either financial
losses or delays caused by reduced Heathrow colleague productivity. The level of
risk to the DCO Project is then estimated as the combination of the likelihood of
overheating in buildings, due to an increase in temperature, and the qualitative
magnitude of its consequence. Should the level of risk warrant it, risk management
measures would be put in place through the provision of environmental measures.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.45 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Methodological approach to the Climate Change Resilience assessment
10.7.42 The risk framework used to assess the resilience of the DCO Project to climate
change is shown in Graphic 10.3.
Graphic 10.3: Risk framework for climate change resilience assessment
10.7.43 The risk framework assessment consists of 10 stages:
1. Compile inventory of assets. The assets and asset groups included within
the DCO Project were organised into activity types and listed. Both
construction and operational phases of the DCO Project were considered
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.46 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
2. Determine criticality of assets. Based on expert opinion and literature, the
extent to which the asset is critical to the functionality of Heathrow airport
was described as low, medium or high. Assets with low criticality were not
considered further. Criticality categorisations were informed by the existing
airport asset prioritisation approaches
3. Compile climate information. Climate information was compiled as per
the climate hazards assessment methodology
4. Climate hazard assessment. The climate hazards assessment, for which
a methodology is provided separately in Section 10.7, was used. Very
unlikely or unlikely hazards were not considered further
5. Vulnerable assets. Assets that meet the criteria in stages 2 and 4 are
considered vulnerable, and are therefore taken forward for further
assessment
6. Likelihood of climate change impact. The likelihood of each impact was
determined based on the definitions in Table 10.15
Table 10.15: Criteria to assess likelihood of climate change impact
Level of likelihood Definition of likelihood
Very unlikely (1) Impact is highly improbable to occur during the operational phases of the
assets or systems, or the construction phase.
Unlikely (2) Impact is not expected to occur during the operational phases of the assets
or systems, or the construction phase.
As likely as not (3) Impact may occur during the operational phases of the assets or systems,
or the construction phase.
Likely (4) Impact is expected to occur during the lifespan of the assets or systems, or
the construction phase.
Very likely (5) Impact is highly probable to occur during the lifetime of assets or systems,
or the construction phase.
7. Consequence of climate change impact. The consequence of each
impact was determined based on the definitions in Table 10.16, and
Heathrow’s Operational Resilience Requirement ’to secure the availability
and continuity of airport operation services, particularly in times of
disruption, to further the interests of users of air transport services in
accordance with best practice and in a timely efficient and economical
manner’ (Heathrow Airport Limited, 2016)
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.47 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Table 10.16: Criteria used to assess consequence of a climate change impact
Level Safety Cost Passenger Journey Times
Public Perception
Very low (1) Minor harm or near
miss <£5m
Minor delays <1
hour
Short-term negative
local stakeholder
reaction.
Low (2)
Lost time to injury or
medical treatment
required, short term
impact on persons
affected
£5m to £25m Substantial delays
>1 hour
Negative local media
reports over
sustained period;
localised stakeholder
concern.
Medium (3)
Long-term injury or
illness, prolonged
hospitalisation or
inability to work
£25m to
£100m
Major delays and
cancellations <1
day
Significant local or
regional reports
including social
media; national
media interest
creating public
concern.
High (4) Single fatality or
multiple long-term
injuries
£100m to
£250m Major cancellations
1-14 days
Extensive prolonged
negative national
reporting and public
disputes with key
stakeholders.
Very high (5) Multiple fatalities >£250m Severe
cancellations >2
weeks
Extensive and
prolonged negative
reporting nationally
and or public
disputes with key
stakeholders.
8. Integrated risk. The risk for each impact was determined based on the
matrix shown in Table 10.17. Risk appraisal was carried out with relevant
asset owners and relevant design teams using a workshop approach to
ensure agreement on risk categorisation
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.48 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Table 10.17: Criteria used to assess risk levels for the climate change resilience assessment
Con
sequ
ence
Very high (5)
Low Medium High Very high Very high
High (4) Low Low High High Very high
Medium (3) Low Low Medium High High
Low (2) Very low Very low Low Medium Medium
Very low (1) Very low Very low Low Low Low
Very unlikely (1)
Unlikely (2) As likely as not (3)
Likely (4) Very likely (5)
Likelihood of the impact occurring (a climate hazard having an impact)
9. Significance assessment. Risks assessed to be ‘medium’, ‘high’ or ‘very
high’ were considered to result in significant CCR effects (and are
demarcated in purple in Table 10.17).
10. Mitigation. Additional environmental measures were developed for any
significant CCR effects to mitigate risk. Where environmental measures
were required, stages 6 to 9 of the risk framework were repeated to
ascertain significance with additional environmental measures in place.
Refer to Section 10.5 for a description of the environmental measures
used.
10.7.44 In relation to flood risk and drainage design, it should be noted that under the
ANPS (Department for Transport, 2018) and NN NPS (Department for Transport,
2014), the NPPF planning requirements (DCLG, 2019) and Environment Agency
design guidance relating to climate change apply (Environment Agency, 2016).
Therefore, a separate FRA and Drainage Impact Assessment were conducted
(Appendix 21.4 and Appendix 21.5), which include an assessment of climate
change effects on flood risk. The results of these assessments were considered by
the climate change aspect leads, the relevant DCO Project engineering and
design teams, and the water environment aspect leads, as part of the overall CCR
assessment.
Assumptions and limitations of this PEIR
10.8.1 The assumptions and limitations listed in this section of the PEIR apply to both the
CCR and ICCI assessments.
10.8.2 In relation to groundwater flood risk, how future changes in recharge may affect
groundwater levels and flow direction, and the interaction with both sub-surface
infrastructure and the land surface has not been considered in the groundwater
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.49 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
modelling scenario assessment (Appendix 21.2: Groundwater modelling scenario assessment, Volume 3). This will be incorporated into the groundwater
assessment prepared for the ES.
10.8.3 The resilience of critical assets to more radical changes in climate beyond those in
the latest climate change projections has not been considered at this stage. This
will be incorporated into the ES, when sensitivity assessments will be available.
10.8.4 Only the principles of the environmental measures within the CCAP have been
produced for the PEIR. The exact nature of the environmental measures, and how
that fits into a coherent plan for delivery, will be described in the ES and developed
post-DCO. This does not affect the robustness of the PEIR assessment as the
requisite commitments for considering climate change throughout the design
process have been made.
10.8.5 All existing assets are assumed to be maintained in-line with the conclusions of
the Heathrow Climate Change Adaptation Report 2016 and are therefore not
assessed here. The CCAP, to be produced with the ES, will cover the process for
ensuring resilience of all assets (existing and newly built for the DCO Project). This
will therefore supersede the existing Heathrow Climate Change Adaptation Report
2016.
10.8.6 ‘More radical’ changes in climate, which are unlikely but possible, have not been
considered at this stage in the hazard assessment. They will be considered in the
preparation of the ES using UKCP18 data (Met Office, 2018) from the regional
projections and probabilistic projections. The most conservative value obtained
from either the group of climate models used in the regional land projections (12
models in total) or the probabilistic projections for the relevant climate variable will
be selected for high temperatures, high rainfall events and dry spells. The ES will
therefore be in-line with the requirements in the ANPS (Department for Transport,
2018) and NN NPS (Department for Transport, 2014) for considering more radical
changes in climate.
10.8.7 These limitations do not affect the robustness of the climate change assessment
at PEIR stage.
Overall baseline
Current baseline
Introduction
10.9.1 For the ICCI assessment, the current baseline for the receptors relevant to each
aspect listed in Table 10.4 is that described in the respective aspect chapters.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.50 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
10.9.2 The CCR assessment is a risk assessment of the DCO Project in the future
climate conditions and does not describe the change in risk from a baseline
scenario to the three runway future scenario. However, it is useful to understand
the current conditions at the Airport for comparison with the future projections,
which are outlined in Section 10.10.
Current climate baseline
10.9.3 The period 1981 to 2000 has been used to define the baseline climate conditions
in order to compare current and future climate. This is aligned with the time period
mainly used in UKCP18 (Met Office, 2018) for describing climate changes in the
UK.
10.9.4 Heathrow has a temperate marine climate with mild damp winters and warm, drier,
sunnier summers, similar to much of the southern British Isles. Close to
continental Europe, it can be exposed to continental weather influences that bring
cold spells in winter and hot, humid weather in summer.
10.9.5 Current climate conditions at Heathrow Airport can be summarised as:
1. Winter temperatures largely remain at or above freezing, with mean daytime
highs above 4.9°C
2. Summers are generally warm with mean daily temperatures above 16°C.
Warm weather is expected between May and September. On average,
Heathrow experiences more than twenty days above 25°C per year
3. Temperatures at Heathrow Airport can be up to 5°C higher than those
experienced in the surrounding countryside because of the London Urban Heat
Island (UHI) effect (Hacker et. al., 2012; Greater London Authority, 2006)
4. Most precipitation during winter months falls as rain rather than snow. Snowfall
at Heathrow has been uncommon in recent years due to the UHI effect and the
overall increase in mean temperatures
5. During summer months, rainfall is relatively low but often falls in heavy
convective events
6. The prevailing wind direction is south-west and mean wind speed is higher in
the winter months
7. The number of days with lightning per season does not exceed 10 days.
Summer is the season when most lightning occurs, and winter is the season
with least lightning
8. The physical location of Heathrow Airport (low-lying and relatively close to the
River Thames) means that it is prone to fog, particularly freezing fog during
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.51 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
autumn and winter months. There are on average five foggy days during the
winter season and three foggy days every ten years during summer.
Future baseline
10.9.6 For the ICCI assessment, the future baseline for the receptors relevant to each
aspect is that described in the respective chapters.
10.9.7 The future climate conditions that are of relevance for both the ICCI and CCR
assessments are the climate change projections as described in the hazard
assessment (Section 10.10).
Assessment of climate change effects
Introduction
10.10.1 The assessment of the effects of climate change on the DCO Project is described
for the construction and operational phases of the DCO Project.
10.10.2 The assessments follow the methodologies set out in Graphic 10.2 and Graphic 10.3. Both the ICCI and CCR assessments require an assessment of the climate
hazards projected to impact the DCO Project over its construction and operational
phases. The climate hazard assessment is presented first.
Hazard assessment
10.10.3 Section 10.7 describes the methodology followed to estimate likelihood of a
climate hazard under future climate conditions.
10.10.4 The likelihood of change in climate variables under climate change conditions is
shown in Table 10.18. The table includes the direction of change in the climate
variable that could lead to an increased severity of a hazard, which can cause a
negative impact on an asset or receptor. For example, an increase in summer
mean temperature could lead to future high temperatures which cause damage to
roads, runways and taxiway surfaces. The table also includes the current baseline
value, the qualitative level of confidence and data source.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.52 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Table 10.18: Future changes in climate variables for 2030s, 2050s, 2080s and 2099
Climate variable
Characteristic Current baseline
value
Direction of change for increased severity of hazard
2030s likelihood
2050s likelihood
2080s likelihood
2099 likelihood
Qualitative level of confidence
Data source
Temperature
Mean winter
temperature 4.9°C
Decrease in
intensity
Very
unlikely
Very
unlikely Very unlikely Very unlikely High
UKCP18
Probabilistic
projections
Mean summer
temperature 16.9°C
Increase in
intensity Very likely Very likely Very likely Very likely High
UKCP18
Probabilistic
projections
Number of hot
days, defined
as days with
daily maximum
temperature
higher than
25°C
24 days/year Increase in
frequency Likely Very likely Very likely*
Data not
available** Medium
UKCP18
Regional
land
projections
(12km)
Number of
frost days,
defined as
days with daily
minimum
temperature
equal or lower
than 0°C
36 days/year Increase in
frequency
Very
unlikely
Very
unlikely
Very
unlikely*
Data not
available** Medium
UKCP18
Regional
land
projections
(12km)
Precipitation Mean winter 1.84
mm/day
Increase in
intensity Likely Likely Likely Likely High
UKCP18
Probabilistic
projections
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.53 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Climate variable
Characteristic Current baseline
value
Direction of change for increased severity of hazard
2030s likelihood
2050s likelihood
2080s likelihood
2099 likelihood
Qualitative level of confidence
Data source
Mean summer 1.61
mm/day
Decrease in
intensity Likely Likely Likely Likely High
UKCP18
Probabilistic
projections
Annual
number of
days per year
when
precipitation is
greater than
25mm per day
(Met Office
definition of
‘heavy rain’)
1.5 days/year Increase in
frequency Possible Likely Likely*
Data not
available** Medium
UKCP18
Regional
land
projections
(12 km)
Dry spells (10
days or more
with no
precipitation)
5.8
spells/year
Increase in
frequency Possible Likely Very likely*
Data not
available** Medium
UKCP18
Regional
land
projections
(12km)
Wind
Mean winter
wind speeds 3.7m/s
Increase in
intensity
Very
unlikely
Very
unlikely Very unlikely
Data not
available** Low
UKCP18
Regional
land
projections
(12km)
Mean summer
wind speeds 3.0 m/s
Increase in
intensity
Very
unlikely
Very
unlikely Very unlikely
Data not
available** Low
UKCP18
Regional
land
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.54 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Climate variable
Characteristic Current baseline
value
Direction of change for increased severity of hazard
2030s likelihood
2050s likelihood
2080s likelihood
2099 likelihood
Qualitative level of confidence
Data source
projections
(12km)
Strong winds,
including
storms
- Increase in
frequency Possible Possible Possible*
Data not
available** Low
UKCP18
Regional
land
projections
(12km)
Lightning Lightning
storm
occurrence
Less than 10
days per
season
Increase in
frequency Possible Possible Possible Possible Low UKCP09
Fog
Winter foggy
days
5
days/season
Increase in
frequency Possible Possible Possible Possible Low UKCP09
Summer foggy
days
0.3
days/season
Increase in
frequency
Very
unlikely
Very
unlikely Very unlikely Very unlikely Low UKCP09
Specific humidity
Winter mean
humidity 83.0% Increase in
intensity Likely Very likely Very likely Very likely High
UKCP18
Probabilistic
projections
Summer mean
humidity 72.1% Increase in
intensity Likely Likely Very likely Very likely High
UKCP18
Probabilistic
projections
* These estimates are based on regional projections from UKCP18 for the period 2060 to 2079, which are the last 20 years for which there is data
available from this product
**Data for the year 2099 is only available for probabilistic projections. For land projections data is available up to 2080.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.55 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
10.10.5 Table 10.19 shows the direction of change in the occurrence of the derived
hazards. Due to the lack of quantitative estimates, Table 10.19 indicates whether
an increase, decrease or no change is anticipated for the hazard under future
climate change conditions. Information on climate change effects on groundwater
flooding are not included in Table 10.19. This will be incorporated into the ES (see
assumption in Section 10.8).
Table 10.19: Direction of change in hazards for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s
Hazard 2020s 2050s 2080s Qualitative level of confidence
Occurrence of fluvial flood Increase Increase Increase High
Occurrence of pluvial flood Increase Increase Increase High
Occurrence of droughts
Possible
increase Increase Increase Medium
Occurrence of fire Possible
increase
Possible
increase Increase Low
Occurrence of soil moisture deficit
Possible
increase
Possible
increase
Possible
increase Low
Occurrence of heatwaves Increase Increase Increase High
Occurrence of snow and ice Decrease Decrease Decrease Medium
Occurrence of storms
Possible
increase
Possible
increase
Possible
increase Low
Occurrence of extreme rainfall during cold snaps
Decrease Decrease Decrease Low
10.10.6 The key results of the climate hazard assessment presented in Table 10.18 and
Table 10.19 can be summarised as:
1. Winter temperatures are very unlikely to decrease in the future. Winter
temperatures are projected to largely increase from the baseline to 2020 to
2099. By the 2080s the mean winter temperature is expected to increase by
3°C (50th percentile and RCP8.5) by the 2080s and up to 4.1°C by 2099. The
number of frost days (daily minimum temperature equal or lower than 0°C) is
expected to reduce by around 88% by the 2080s from the current baseline of
36 days per year
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.56 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
2. Summer temperatures are very likely to increase in the future, with an
expected increase of around 4.8°C by the 2080s (50th percentile and RCP8.5)
and up to 7.1°C by 2099. The number of hot days at Heathrow (daily maximum
temperature higher than 25°C) are projected to increase threefold in the 2080s
from the current baseline of 24 days per year
3. Summer precipitation is likely to decrease in the future whilst winter
precipitation is likely to increase. Summer precipitation is projected to decrease
up to 34% by the 2080s (50th percentile and RCP8.5). Winter precipitation is
projected to increase up to 21% by the 2080s (50th percentile and RCP8.5)
4. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more frequent. By the 2080s,
the number of heavy rainfall days (days per year when precipitation is greater
than 25mm per day) is likely to increase by around 60%. Similarly, the number
of dry spells (ten days or more with no precipitation) is very likely to increase
(double number of dry spells in the future when compared to baseline)
5. There is no clear trend in the projections for mean wind speeds. It is
considered very unlikely that large changes will be observed in the future in
both winter and summer wind speeds. An increase of 2.0% is anticipated for
winter mean wind speed and a decrease of 4.3% in summer mean wind speed
by the 2080s. It is considered possible that there will be an increase in the
frequency of strong winds, including storms, in the future.
In-combination climate change impact assessment
10.10.7 The following section describes the key findings from the ICCI assessment for
each aspect. Table 10.20 summarises the findings of the Phase 1 and 2 ICCI
assessment.
10.10.8 Phase 1 identified all potential ICCIs and assessed their likelihood. Only ICCIs
considered likely were carried forward to Phase 2, where the consequence and
significance of the ICCI effect was assessed.
10.10.9 Due to the volume of potential ICCIs identified, Table 10.20 only includes ICCIs
considered likely, as assessed in Phase 2.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.57 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Table 10.20: In- combination Climate Change impact assessment results
Aspect Phase 1 Phase 2
Climate hazard Likely ICCIs identified Consequence of ICCIs considering
embedded environmental measures/good practice
Significance of ICCI effects
Air quality and odour (Chapter 7)
Increased
number of hot
days; increase
of droughts
Increased dust
production during
construction due to
extended dry spells
During the construction phase, extended dry spells may cause
increased dust production. This consequence is minimised as
far as reasonably practicable, through the measures
incorporated into the draft Code of Construction Practice (draft CoCP) (e.g. reduce dust emissions through the effective
transportation and storage of materials), including the proposed
monitoring regime.
Not significant
Increased odour
release during
construction due to
higher temperatures
During the construction phase, hotter temperatures may cause
increased odour release through evaporation from the fuel of
construction plant and construction vehicles. This consequence
is minimised, as far as reasonably practicable, through the
measures incorporated into the draft CoCP (e.g. early
identification of materials which could generate odour).
Not significant
Increase in evaporative
emissions from aviation
fuel used by Ground
Support Equipment due
to hotter weather
(Operation)
During the operational phase, hotter temperatures may cause
increased odour release through evaporation from the fuel of
Ground Support Equipment. This consequence is minimised, as
far as reasonably practicable, through monitoring and proposed
environmental measures detailed in Chapter 7: Air quality and odour, such as maintaining the current procedure of a rapid
response to fuel spillages.
Not significant
Changes in
concentration of
pollutants affecting
human health (Nitrogen
Negative impact on human health due to changes in
concentrations of pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and
particulate matter (PM). Although these changes are difficult to
quantify, they are anticipated to be minimal.
Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.58 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Aspect Phase 1 Phase 2
Climate hazard Likely ICCIs identified Consequence of ICCIs considering
embedded environmental measures/good practice
Significance of ICCI effects
dioxide and PM) due to
changes in weather
conditions.
Changes in concentrations of pollutants such as nitrogen
dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM) could have an impact
on human health. Although these potential changes are difficult
to quantify, any impacts are anticipated to be minimal.
Regarding aircraft emissions, emissions from combustion of
aviation fuel may be reduced as aircraft require lower thrust to
take off in higher temperatures. In addition, a decrease in the
number of winter stagnation events (where poor air quality is
associated with poor dispersion conditions) would also improve
overall air quality.
Regarding road vehicles, overall air quality is projected to
improve over time as road vehicles are gradually replaced by
newer vehicles which meet tighter emission standards.
Biodiversity (Chapter 8)
Increased
number of hot
days; increase
of droughts
Reduced success of
establishment of new
plantings due to hotter
drier conditions
Resilience of landscaping to climate change will be ensured by
the Habitat Creation requirements provided within the ES to
ensure that climate change is taken into consideration in the
choice of species and adequate monitoring post-planting
occurs. The consequence of the ICCI is therefore deemed to be
minimal.
Not significant
Community (Chapter 11)
Increased
intensity of
extreme
precipitation
events; increase
Impact to access and
levels of use of outdoor
facilities due to flooding
of facilities or of access
roads to them
All facilities will be constructed in line with current design
standards for the relevant type of building (for example, Sport
England Natural Turf for Sport - Design Guidance Note, (Sport
England, 2011)) and the climate change adaptation
requirements of relevant Local Plans, as defined in Appendix
Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.59 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Aspect Phase 1 Phase 2
Climate hazard Likely ICCIs identified Consequence of ICCIs considering
embedded environmental measures/good practice
Significance of ICCI effects
in mean winter
rainfall
2.1. Further climate change adaptation requirements within the
building standards will be considered within the development of
the CCAP for ES (Appendix 10.1).
All surface transport infrastructure will be designed to
Environment Agency guidance on Flood risk assessments:
climate change allowances. This is addressed in detail in the
Flood Risk Assessment (Appendix 21.4).
These measures ensure that the consequence of the ICCI on
access and use of outdoor facilities is minimal.
Increased
occurrence of
heatwaves
Potential for indoor
community facilities to
be affected by
overheating
All replacement buildings will be designed in line with the
climate change adaptation requirements of the relevant Local
Plans, as defined in Appendix 2.1. Further climate change
adaptation requirements within the building standards will be
considered within the development of the CCAP for ES
(Appendix 10.1).
These measures ensure that the consequence of the ICCI on
community facilities is minimal.
Not significant
Health (Chapter 12)
Increased
intensity of
extreme
precipitation
events; increase
in mean winter
rainfall
Impact to access of
health facilities
Surface transport infrastructure will be designed to Environment
Agency guidance on Flood risk assessments: climate change
allowances. This is addressed in detail in the Flood Risk
Assessment (Appendix 21.4). Therefore, the consequence of
the ICCI is minimal.
Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.60 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Aspect Phase 1 Phase 2
Climate hazard Likely ICCIs identified Consequence of ICCIs considering
embedded environmental measures/good practice
Significance of ICCI effects
Increased
occurrence of
heatwaves
Potential for
replacement buildings
to suffer from
overheating due to
hotter summer
temperatures.
Replacement buildings provided by the DCO Project, will be
designed in line with the climate change adaptation
requirements of the relevant Local Plans, as defined in
Appendix 2.1. Further climate change adaptation requirements
within the building standards will be considered within the
development of the CCAP for ES (Appendix 10.1). Therefore,
the consequence of the ICCI is minimal.
Not significant
Increased
occurrence of
heatwaves
Potential increase in
urban heat island effect
due to increase in built
environment
Design and appropriate landscaping and plantings will mitigate
the potential for an Urban Heat Island effect. Therefore, the
consequence of this ICCI will be minimal. The potential Urban
Heat Island effect has not been modelled as current modelling
techniques are only applicable to larger areas of land than will
be taken by the DCO Project.
Not significant
Increased mean
temperature
(increase in
warm weather)
and increase in
precipitation
Increase in walking and
cycling as modes of
transport, replacing
some of the journeys
currently carried out in
cars, which would
deliver a positive
benefit on health.
Surface access improvements will decrease reliance on private
transport for Heathrow colleagues and passengers. Multi-modal
journeys, especially those including active transport, are
associated with greater levels of physical activity. This provides
an opportunity for a co-benefit: environmental measures can
provide a benefit for human health. This would be a minimal
positive effect.
Not significant
Historic environment (Chapter 13)
Increase in
mean winter
rainfall leading
to increased
groundwater
levels; increased
Changes in
groundwater level could
result in potential
damage to
archaeological or
Potential damage to archaeological or paleoenvironmental
remains in the ground arises when groundwater levels reduce.
Hence, an increase in mean winter rainfall could potentially
have a positive impact, unless it generates a need for additional
flood storage infrastructure, which could damage archaeological
remains.
Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.61 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Aspect Phase 1 Phase 2
Climate hazard Likely ICCIs identified Consequence of ICCIs considering
embedded environmental measures/good practice
Significance of ICCI effects
intensity of
extreme
precipitation
events
paleoenvironmental
remains in the ground.
Embedded environmental measures include avoiding changes
to groundwater flows; measures to identify and assess
receptors susceptible to groundwater changes; and measures
to avoid dewatering as far as practicable. With these in place,
the consequence of the ICCI on archaeological and
paleoenvironmental remains is minimal.
Land quality (Chapter 14)
Increased
intensity of
extreme
precipitation
events; increase
in mean winter
rainfall
Potential increased
leaching of
contaminants from soils
due to wetter conditions
and an increase in the
amount of landfill
leachate generated
Where new landfills are created by the DCO Project, these will
be compliant with the Landfill Directive (2001) as transposed by
The Environmental Permitting (England and Wales)
Regulations 2016 (refer to Chapter 14: Land quality, Section 14.10: Assessment of land quality effects). Climate change
impacts on these assets will be considered through further
design and incorporated into the ES, therefore the
consequence of the ICCI is minimal.
Not significant
Increased
intensity of
extreme
precipitation
events; increase
in mean winter
rainfall
Impacts on human
health related to the
contamination of
surface waters or the
shallow groundwater
aquifer, as these have
the potential to impact
workers and
neighbouring residents
The draft CoCP includes environmental measures to mitigate
potential effects upon human health and controlled waters
during construction (for example the use of hardstanding to
prevent accidental spillages to ground, and the covering of
stockpiles to prevent the generation of dusts). These measures
together with the measures to minimise the impacts of severe
weather events in the draft CoCP mitigate the effects of ICCIs
on human health and controlled waters receptors identified
during construction, as far as reasonably practicable.
Not significant
Increased
intensity of
extreme
Damage to newly
installed infrastructure
from aggressive ground
The geo-environmental desk study data (Chapter 14, Section 14.9: Overall Baseline) indicates that the risks associated with
Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.62 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Aspect Phase 1 Phase 2
Climate hazard Likely ICCIs identified Consequence of ICCIs considering
embedded environmental measures/good practice
Significance of ICCI effects
precipitation
events; increase
in mean winter
rainfall
conditions (such as
sulphate attack on
concrete) and
geohazards (such as
ground
swelling/shrinkage)
during the construction
and operational phases
could be exacerbated
by climate change. For
example, increased
rainfall and surface
water flooding could
increase the potential
for sulphate attack or
lead to water clogging
and corrosion of
structures.
geohazards under current climate conditions are negligible to
low.
The DCO Project earthworks will be designed in accordance
with the requirements and recommendations of the relevant UK
and European standards for earthworks.
Further climate change adaptation requirements within the
technical standards will be considered within the development
of the CCAP for ES (Appendix 10.1).
Therefore, the effect of ICCIs related to damage to
infrastructure from aggressive ground conditions and
geohazards are considered to be negligible.
Increased
intensity of
extreme
precipitation
events;
increased
seasonality of
rainfall
Change in rainfall
patterns might
exacerbate the damage
to soils, especially
topsoil, whilst it is being
stored for reuse as part
of the DCO Project.
The draft CoCP includes measures for the stripping, handling
and storage of soils and topsoils to prevent damage to their
structure and quality, as far as reasonably practicable. These
embedded environmental measures ensure that the
consequence of this ICCI is minimal.
Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.63 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Aspect Phase 1 Phase 2
Climate hazard Likely ICCIs identified Consequence of ICCIs considering
embedded environmental measures/good practice
Significance of ICCI effects
Landscape and visual assessment (Chapter 15)
Increased
occurrence of
heatwaves,
increased
occurrence of
droughts.
Reduced success of
establishment of new
plantings due to hotter
drier conditions
Climate change will be considered in the selection of
landscaping species and the monitoring put in place. Further
information will be provided in the Habitat Creation
requirements within the ES. The consequence of the ICCI is
therefore deemed to be minimal.
Not significant
Noise and vibration (Chapter 17)
Increased
occurrence of
heatwaves
Potential to exacerbate
noise effects on
communities in terms of
individual dwellings and
on a wider community,
due to windows being
open more often due to
an increase in high
temperatures.
The noise assessment criteria assume windows are open when
internal noise levels are considered. Consequently, there is no
further impact on noise effects arising from the ICCI.
Not significant
Increased
summer
temperature;
increased mean
temperature and
humidity
Potential effect on
noise levels caused by
a change in the sound
absorption properties of
the air, arising from an
increase in temperature
and humidity.
The anticipated effect on propagation of construction sound
from changes in temperature and humidity is expected to be
low as construction noise predictions use precautionary
assumptions about the propagation of noise to predict noise
over relatively short distances.
The anticipated effect on propagation of aircraft sound from
changes in average temperature and humidity is expected to be
low, and this will be further explored in the ES.
Not significant
Waste (Chapter 20)
Increased
occurrence of
heatwaves
Potential for an
increase in odour from
The consequence of increased temperatures impact on odour
from landfills is expected to be minimal, as the majority of waste
generated will be inert and not associated with odour. Only
Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.64 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Aspect Phase 1 Phase 2
Climate hazard Likely ICCIs identified Consequence of ICCIs considering
embedded environmental measures/good practice
Significance of ICCI effects
off-site and purpose-
built on-site landfill.
construction waste (typically not associated with odour) will go
to local existing and new landfills.
Increased
intensity of
extreme
precipitation
events
Potential mobilisation of
contaminants due to
flooding is addressed
under Land Quality
ICCI assessment
above
Where new landfills are created by the DCO Project, these will
be compliant with the Landfill Directive (2001) (see Section 14.10). As such, it is considered unlikely that the new landfills
could act as a new source of contamination which may result in
contamination of groundwater. The consequence of the ICCI is
therefore expected to be minimal.
Not significant
Water environment (Chapter 21)
Increased
intensity of
extreme
precipitation
events
Increased mean
winter rainfall
Increased
drought intensity
Increased intensity of
extreme weather
events will cause
changes in
groundwater flow and
levels.
Drought periods could
reduce groundwater
flows
Climate change has not been considered within the
groundwater modelling carried out for PEIR (Chapter 21).
Appropriate design and alignment of subsurface features, and
of new and updated drainage networks will be considered in the
CCAP (Appendix 10.1). Climate change will be considered in
the groundwater assessment for the ES. The consequence of
the ICCI on groundwater receptors are expected to be minimal,
but further assessment is required.
Anticipated to be
not significant (subject to further
assessment at ES)
Increased
intensity of
extreme
precipitation
events and
pluvial flooding
Higher intensity and
frequency of rainfall will
increase the number of
flood events that will
occur in the catchment.
Higher intensity and
frequency of flooding
and more extreme
The Flood Risk Assessment (FRA) in Appendix 21.4 confirms
that the DCO Project design is NPPF compliant (DCLG, 2019),
and therefore considers the impacts of climate change. It
confirms that the proposed design has been developed to avoid
areas of known flood risk wherever possible in line with the
sequential risk-based approach advocated by the NPPF
(DCLG, 2019). Where there are exceptions to this rule the PEIR
FRA presents a range of potential additional environmental
Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.65 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Aspect Phase 1 Phase 2
Climate hazard Likely ICCIs identified Consequence of ICCIs considering
embedded environmental measures/good practice
Significance of ICCI effects
Increased mean
winter rainfall
and fluvial
flooding
Increased
drought intensity
precipitation events are
likely to increase the
load of pollutants
washed from soils and
overflows
measures to ensure a safe NPPF compliant development
(DCLG, 2019).
As set out in Section 4.1 of the Drainage Impact Assessment
(DIA) (Appendix 21.5), for flood attenuation purposes, the
climate change allowances provided by the Environment
Agency for flood risk assessments will be used. Appropriate
allowances for increase in peak rainfall intensity will be applied
to cover the lifetime of the DCO Project. As recommended in
the guidance (Environment Agency, 2017), both the central and
upper end allowances will be assessed to understand the range
of impact.
With these environmental measures in place, the consequence
of the ICCI is deemed be minimal.
Increased
intensity of
extreme
precipitation
events and
pluvial flooding
Increased mean
winter rainfall
and fluvial
flooding
Reduced groundwater
recharge and river flow
may result in lower
water quality because
of less dilution of
pollutants. Increased
intensity of floods could
increase erosion of
sediments also
reducing water quality.
Drought events limit
dilution and therefore
increase the
Climate change has not been considered within the water
quality assessments at PEIR stage (Chapter 21 and Appendix 21.1). Water quality assessments will consider climate change
ICCIs at the ES stage. It is expected that the consequence of
the ICCI will be minimal, but further assessment is required.
Anticipated to be
not significant (subject to further
assessment at ES)
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.66 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Aspect Phase 1 Phase 2
Climate hazard Likely ICCIs identified Consequence of ICCIs considering
embedded environmental measures/good practice
Significance of ICCI effects
Increased
drought intensity
concentration of
pathogens in surface
waters
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.67 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Climate change resilience assessment
10.10.10 Climate change has been considered throughout the design process to date. The
CCR assessment considers the embedded environmental measures described in
Section 10.5, as well as the assumptions stated in Section 10.8.
10.10.11 The preliminary CCR assessment outputs are provided in Table 10.21. Only those
climate impacts with a medium or greater consequence, as defined in Table 10.16, have been detailed. Impacts with a consequence of low or very low will be
incorporated in the CCAP where appropriate.
10.10.12 Due to the embedded environmental measures put in place, all likelihoods of
climate impacts are either assessed to be unlikely to very unlikely or are
anticipated to be unlikely or very unlikely following further assessment at ES stage.
Therefore, Table 10.21 focuses on the embedded environmental measures in
place and the resultant risk. A full risk assessment matrix will be provided in the
CCAP.
10.10.13 As asset design develops, climate change will be further considered using relevant
international and national guidance for embedding climate change into technical
standards as listed in Appendix 10.1. This embedded environmental measure is
assumed across all asset groups and is considered in the determination of
significance, but is not referred to in Table 10.21.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.68 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Table 10.21: Climate change resilience assessment results
Climate change hazard
Asset groups Climate change impacts
Embedded environmental measures / good practice
Risk Significance
Increased intensity of extreme precipitation events
Runways, taxiways and
aprons, including
operations and aircraft
Surface access and
road assets
Increased torrential rain
events create
hazardous conditions
for vehicles and planes
an intolerable amount
of the time (for
example, airside and
landside vehicles).
As set out in Section 4.1 of the
DIA (Appendix 21.5), for flood
attenuation purposes, the climate
change allowances provided by the
Environment Agency for flood risk
assessments will be used.
Appropriate allowances for
increase in peak rainfall intensity
will be applied to cover the lifetime
of the DCO Project. As
recommended in the guidance
(Environment Agency, 2017), both
the central and upper end
allowances will be assessed to
understand the range of impact.
A sensitivity assessment for more
radical changes in climate will be
carried out for the ES.
Monitoring impact of torrential rain
on airside and landside road
vehicles and planes is in place as
good practice.
Low Not significant
Runways, taxiways and
aprons, including
operations and aircraft
Increased rainfall
saturates the unbound
pavement construction,
causing loss of fine
All airfield and road assets will be
designed for the climatic conditions
experienced at the end of their
operational life cycle, using
Low Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.69 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Climate change hazard
Asset groups Climate change impacts
Embedded environmental measures / good practice
Risk Significance
Surface access and
road assets
material and settlement
and subsequent
premature pavement
failure.
Rapid structural
damage from
increasing water
damage. Increases in
precipitation would
increase deterioration
rates for joints and
surfacing, requiring
more frequent
replacement and traffic
disruption.
appropriate design guidance. The
design will be progressed between
PEIR and ES.
New terminal and
associated buildings,
including airside
facilities
Drainage and pollution
control assets
Utilities corridors
Construction sites
Underground assets
inundated and
damaged during pluvial
flooding event (for
example, underground
pipework, pumping
station, tunnels and
utilities corridors).
As set out in Section 4.1 of the
Drainage Impact Assessment (DIA)
(Appendix 21.5), for flood
attenuation purposes, the climate
change allowances provided by the
Environment Agency for flood risk
assessments will be used.
Appropriate allowances for
increase in peak rainfall intensity
will be applied to cover the lifetime
of the DCO Project. As
recommended in the guidance
(Environment Agency, 2017), both
the central and upper end
Low Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.70 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Climate change hazard
Asset groups Climate change impacts
Embedded environmental measures / good practice
Risk Significance
allowances will be assessed to
understand the range of impact.
A sensitivity assessment for more
radical changes in climate will be
carried out for the ES.
Drainage and pollution
control assets
Pollution Control
System (PCS)
challenged as a result
of increased severity of
first flush effect and
compounded by less
seasonal distinction in
PCS operation.
Higher intensity and
frequency of flooding
and more extreme
precipitation events
increase the load of
pollutants washed from
soils and overflows to
unacceptable levels.
An allowance for climate change
has been incorporated into the
water treatment element of the
airfield drainage strategy, as
discussed in Section 4.2 of the
Drainage Impact Assessment
report (Appendix 21.5 of the
PIER). An appropriate factor of
safety has been incorporated into
the designs to safeguard against
adverse changes in climate in the
short term, for instance, sufficient
conservatism has been
incorporated into the design of the
water treatment capacity to provide
an allowance for climate change in
the relatively short term (10 to 15
years). The design calculations for
the water treatment area have
sufficient conservatism built-in to
handle much increased daily
biological oxygen demand (BOD)
loading associated with de-icer
usage in excess of that which
Low Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.71 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Climate change hazard
Asset groups Climate change impacts
Embedded environmental measures / good practice
Risk Significance
occurs under present day climatic
conditions.
For changes in climate beyond the
factor of safety incorporated into
the design (likely to be longer term
changes in climate), the adaptive
management approach detailed in
the Climate Change Adaptation
Plan would be employed. An
adaptive management approach
requires a flexible design, such as
one that allows the depth of the
gravel substrate to be increased,
for example. The feasibility and
practicality of undertaking such an
approach will be considered when
designing the co-located water
treatment and attenuation areas.
Increase in mean winter rainfall
Runways, taxiways and
aprons, including
operations and aircraft
New terminal and
associated buildings,
including airside
facilities
Surface access and
road assets
Increased fluvial flood
risk across the DCO
Project
The Flood Risk Assessment
(Appendix 21.4): confirms that The
DCO Project design is NPPF
compliant (DCLG, 2019), and
therefore considers the impacts of
climate change. It confirms that the
proposed design has been
developed to avoid areas of known
flood risk wherever possible in line
with the sequential risk-based
approach advocated by NPPF
(DCLG, 2019). Where there are
Low Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.72 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Climate change hazard
Asset groups Climate change impacts
Embedded environmental measures / good practice
Risk Significance
Drainage and pollution
control assets
Fuel assets
Utility corridors
Flood alleviation and
storage infrastructure,
fire water and energy
storage assets.
exceptions to this rule the PEIR
FRA presents a range of potential
additional environmental measures
to ensure safe NPPF compliant
development (DCLG, 2019).
A sensitivity assessment for more
radical changes in climate will be
carried out for the ES.
Increased seasonality of rainfall Increase in mean winter rainfall
Earthworks, with
knock-on effects on:
Runways, taxiways and
aprons, including
operations and aircraft
New terminal and
associated buildings,
including airside
facilities
Drainage and pollution
control assets
Surface access and
road assets
Flood alleviation and
storage infrastructure,
Variable groundwater
levels affect asset
integrity and cause
subsidence and water
ingress damage to
earthworks,
underground
structures, foundations
and platforms
The DCO Project earthworks will
be designed in accordance with the
requirements and
recommendations of the relevant
UK and European standards for
earthworks
These documents include a
requirement for climatic change to
be considered during the design of
earthworks, buried structures and
foundations and the impact on
earthworks or structural
performance (stability and ground
movement) to be assessed.
Current threshold levels that impact
performance will be assessed
against projected climate changes
over the proposed design life of
Low Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.73 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Climate change hazard
Asset groups Climate change impacts
Embedded environmental measures / good practice
Risk Significance
fire water and energy
storage assets
On and off-site
electrical facilities and
utilities corridors
earthworks and structures to
ensure appropriate resilience to
climate change. This will focus on
the influence of changes in
precipitation on groundwater levels
and soil moisture content and the
resultant potential impact on
ground movements and earthworks
stability.
The design of earthworks,
underground structure and
foundations will be undertaken
applying conservative groundwater
level assumptions. These will be
assessed from consideration of
existing groundwater monitoring
data and the results of
hydrogeological modelling that
itself will include the assessment of
projected climatic variations at the
ES stage.
Permanent site drainage proposals
include allowance for projected
climate change. This will help to
mitigate the risk to earthworks and
underground structures from
drainage capacity being exceeded
during operation.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.74 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Climate change hazard
Asset groups Climate change impacts
Embedded environmental measures / good practice
Risk Significance
Earthworks, with
knock-on effects on:
Runways, taxiways and
aprons, including
operations and aircraft
Surface access assets
Expansion and
shrinking of soil causes
pavement layers to
heave. Changes to
groundwater levels
affect asset integrity,
causing subsidence
and water ingress
damage to surfaces.
Underground
infrastructure suffers
fracture risk.
The DCO Project earthworks will
be designed in accordance with the
requirements and
recommendations of the relevant
UK and European standards for
earthworks.
These documents include a
requirement for climatic change to
be considered during the design of
earthworks, buried structures and
foundations and the impact on
earthworks or structural
performance (stability and ground
movement) to be assessed.
Current threshold levels that impact
performance will be assessed
against projected climate changes
over the proposed design life of
earthworks and structures to
ensure appropriate resilience to
climate change. This will focus on
the influence of changes in
precipitation on groundwater levels
and soil moisture content and the
resultant potential impact on
ground movements and earthworks
stability.
Low Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.75 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Climate change hazard
Asset groups Climate change impacts
Embedded environmental measures / good practice
Risk Significance
The design of earthworks,
underground structure and
foundations will be undertaken
applying conservative groundwater
level assumptions. These will be
assessed from consideration of
existing groundwater monitoring
data and the results of
hydrogeological modelling that
itself will include the assessment of
projected climatic variations at the
ES stage.
Permanent site drainage proposals
include allowance for predicted
climate change. This will help to
mitigate the risk to earthworks and
underground structures from
drainage capacity being exceeded
during operation.
Increase in mean winter rainfall leading to increased groundwater levels
Runways, taxiways and
aprons, including
operations and aircraft
New terminal and
associated buildings,
including airside
facilities
Fuel assets
Inundation of assets
though groundwater
flooding.
Groundwater modelling does not
incorporate climate change at
PEIR. It will be included in the ES.
Potential impacts will continue to
be considered as detailed design
progresses.
Low Anticipated to be not significant (subject to
further assessment at
ES)
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.76 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Climate change hazard
Asset groups Climate change impacts
Embedded environmental measures / good practice
Risk Significance
Drainage and pollution
control assets
Increased summer temperature; Increased number of hot days and heatwaves
Runways, taxiways and
aprons, including
operations and aircraft
Heat damage to tarmac
and pavements in
airfield, including
apron, runway and
airside roads through
surface failure, warping
of slabs and excessive
movement at joints.
All airfield assets will be designed
for the climatic conditions
experienced at the end of their
operational life cycle, using
appropriate design guidance. The
design will be progressed between
PEIR and ES.
Surface condition on extreme
temperature days are monitored by
airside and landside operations
teams to ensure safe operations.
Low Not significant
Surface access assets
Heat damage to road
surfaces and assets
through surface failure,
warping of slabs and
excessive movement at
joints.
All road sub-assets will be
designed for the climatic conditions
experienced at the end of their life
cycle (e.g. relaying of road surface,
or replacement of sub-base will
have substantially different
lifespans), using appropriate
design guidance. The design will
be progressed between PEIR and
ES.
Low Not significant
New terminal and
associated buildings,
including airside
facilities
Buckling of metal
structures in buildings,
pipework.
The DCO Project will be designed
in accordance with the
requirements and
recommendations of the relevant
UK standard for actions on
Low Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.77 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Climate change hazard
Asset groups Climate change impacts
Embedded environmental measures / good practice
Risk Significance
Drainage and pollution
control structures
Utilities corridors
structures. This includes
requirements for ambient design
temperatures. The adequacy of
these standards will be assessed
throughout the detailed design
stage, and the projected conditions
will be applied to the design.
All buildings will be designed for
the climatic conditions experienced
at the end of their operational life
cycle, using appropriate design
guidance. The design will be
progressed between PEIR and ES.
Utilities corridors Extreme heat damages
power infrastructure
cabinets and sub-
stations, amplified by
solar gain.
All utilities assets will be designed
for the climatic conditions
experienced at the end of their
operational life cycle, using
appropriate design guidance. The
design will be progressed between
PEIR and ES.
Low Not significant
Project-wide Fire risk on site
increased to
unacceptable level.
Recent assessments and
developments of existing fire main
means current operations sufficient
to mitigate risk. Good practice will
be extended to the new assets.
Low Not significant
Increased number of hot days and heatwaves
Fuel assets Flashpoint of aviation
fuel exceeded on hot
days.
Airport fire service embedded in
Operational Resilience Plan
(Heathrow Airport Limited, 2015).
Good practice of working with fuels
Low Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.78 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Climate change hazard
Asset groups Climate change impacts
Embedded environmental measures / good practice
Risk Significance
and research into spill clean-up
operations in hotter climates
means perceived risk of fuel
combustion is low.
Construction sites
Project-wide
Heat risk to staff
causing a danger to
life.
Wellbeing toolkit provides sun
awareness briefings to manage
heat impacts. Team briefings take
place on hydration.
The draft CoCP includes
requirements for a high-level risk
assessment of severe weather
impacts on the construction
process to be produced by the
main contractor to inform
mitigations. Any receptors and/or
construction-related operations and
activities potentially sensitive to
severe weather events should be
considered in the assessment.
Climate change projections are
considered in the risk
assessments.
The main contractors’
Environmental Management
System should consider all
measures deemed necessary and
appropriate to manage severe
weather events and should as a
minimum cover training of
Low Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.79 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Climate change hazard
Asset groups Climate change impacts
Embedded environmental measures / good practice
Risk Significance
personnel and prevention and
monitoring arrangements. As
appropriate, construction method
statements should also consider
severe weather events where risks
have been identified.
The DCO Project will be designed
in accordance with the
requirements and
recommendations of the relevant
UK standard for action on
structures. This includes
requirements for ambient design
temperatures. The adequacy of
these standards will be assessed
throughout the detailed design
stage, and the projected conditions
will be applied to the design.
Increased mean temperature
Runways, taxiways and
aprons, including
operations and aircraft
Substantial increase in
frequency of bird
strikes.
Monitoring of movement of birds
across Heathrow Airport has been
ongoing since 2011, with the
results fed into the Heathrow Bird
Strike Group. Biodiversity Action
plans monitor species on sites.
This good practice will follow the
requirements of the CCAP to
ensure environmental measures
are put in place if and when
required.
Low Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.80 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Climate change hazard
Asset groups Climate change impacts
Embedded environmental measures / good practice
Risk Significance
Increased winter temperature variability and freeze/thaw
Construction sites
Drainage and pollution
control assets
Utilities corridors
Surface access assets
Fracture risk to
underground
infrastructure.
New services are not laid at
shallow depths to avoid damage
due to temperature extremes
during excavations.
All road sub-assets will be
designed for the climatic conditions
experienced at the end of their life
cycle (e.g. relaying of road surface,
or replacement of sub-base will
have substantially different
lifespans), using appropriate
design guidance. The design will
be progressed between PEIR and
ES.
Low Not significant
Increased variability of snowfall and extreme snowfall events
Runways, taxiways and
aprons, including
operations and aircraft
Increased variability of
snowfall challenges
winter contingency
plans, de-icing supplies
and Heathrow
colleagues experience.
New de-icing facilities are
incorporated into the DCO Project.
Continued implementation of the
actions from the Heathrow Winter
Resilience Enquiry (2011),
including continual development of
the snow removal plan.
Low Not significant
Possible increased frequency and intensity of lightning events
Runways, taxiways and
aprons, including
operations and aircraft
Airfield telecoms
Fuel assets
Unacceptable increase
in Impact on control
systems and electricity
supply from lightning
strike. Power cuts and
voltage spikes to parts
of Heathrow Airport not
Monitoring of weather trends in
place, and updates to processes
and planning through incorporation
of adaptive management as
detailed in the CCAP.
Low Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.81 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Climate change hazard
Asset groups Climate change impacts
Embedded environmental measures / good practice
Risk Significance
run on UPS during
electrical storms.
Lightning protection units installed
where risks to sub-components is
high. Redundancy in power intake
due to three separate intakes from
National Grid is already existing
and another is included in the DCO
Project.
Possible increased frequency and intensity of wind events
Runways, taxiways and
aprons, including
operations and aircraft
New terminal and
associated buildings,
including airside
facilities
Airfield telecoms
Substantial damage to
building fabric caused
by high winds.
Failure of lighter
structures by
overturning.
Substantial damage to
masts during periods of
extreme winds.
Substantial damage to
de-icing equipment
during periods of
extreme winds.
Monitoring of weather trends in
place, and updates to processes
and planning through incorporation
of adaptive management as
detailed in the CCAP.
All buildings will be designed for
the climatic conditions experienced
at the end of their operational life
cycle, using appropriate design
guidance. The design will be
progressed between PEIR and ES.
Low Not significant
Drought New terminal and
associated buildings,
including airside
facilities
Flood alleviation and
storage infrastructure,
Reduced availability of
potable water for
operations and terminal
buildings.
Water efficiencies are built into the
DCO Project through the draft Resource Management Plan
(Appendix 20.1). This enables an
increase in the level of efficiency in
water use per passenger, therefore
increases resilience to drought
Low Not significant
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.82 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Climate change hazard
Asset groups Climate change impacts
Embedded environmental measures / good practice
Risk Significance
fire water and energy
storage assets
events. The measures
incorporated are:
1. Utilising new approaches
and technology to
eliminate water demand
and improve water
efficiency for all uses, both
potable and non-potable
2. Proactively influence
business partners’
development and
operations and growth to
improve water efficiency
3. Undertaking measures to
minimise leakage levels in
the new facilities and
reduce leakage in existing
facilities that are
undergoing expansion or
supporting expansion
facilities and
4. Increase the use of non-
potable water supply to
meet the demand from all
the non-potable end uses
(such as WC and urinal
flushing, cooling towers,
etc.).
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.83 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Risks from interdependencies
10.10.14 As well as the risks within the Site, the DCO Project is subject to several ‘cascade’
risks from its interdependencies such as electricity, gas, transport and
telecommunications networks, as well as effects on destination airports and their
networks. These risks have not been included in Table 10.21 as many of the
environmental measures required for reducing the likelihood of their occurrence
are not under the control of Heathrow.
10.10.15 The relevant UK infrastructure operators (for example, Highways England,
National Grid, UK Power Networks, water companies etc.) supply Climate Change
Adaptation Reports (Defra, 2017b) under the Climate Change Act 2008 and are
subject to climate change adaptation requirements in the planning system.
Furthermore, Heathrow’s resilience framework is designed to cope with temporary
disruptions to supply of utilities. The draft Resource Management Plan
(Appendix 20.1) sets out how Heathrow will be more resilient to power, heating
and water resource shocks.
10.10.16 Risks from interdependencies will be considered in greater detail in the CCAP.
Concluding statements
10.10.17 There are no medium or high risks relating to climate change resilience, and
therefore no significant effects. This is due to the embedded environmental
measures described in Table 10.8, while taking into account the assumptions
detailed in Section 10.8 and the requirement for consideration of climate change
in design standards across all asset groups in the CCAP (Appendix 10.1).
10.10.18 The principles of the CCAP are presented in Appendix 10.1. The full CCAP will be
appended to the ES.
10.10.19 The effects of more radical changes in climate will be considered in greater detail
in the ES, where sensitivity testing will be carried out where appropriate. There will
also be assessment of supply chain risks within the CCAP.
Preliminary assessment of significance
10.11.1 There are no significant effects remaining following the assessment of climate
change impacts on the construction and operational phases of the DCO Project
and its receptors. This is because all relevant and implementable environmental
measures have been embedded into the DCO Project or will be addressed by
further assessment in the ES (refer to Table 10.8).
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.84 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Assessment of cumulative effects
10.12.1 The CCR assessment is only concerned with the assets of the DCO Project and a
broader consideration of existing interdependent infrastructure, therefore a
cumulative effects assessment (CEA), is not required.
10.12.2 The ICCI assessment is an assessment of the exacerbation of climate change on
existing effects. As the climate change projections have been included within each
aspect’s primary assessments, and are therefore carried through to the aspect-
specific CEA, a separate Climate Change CEA is not required.
Consideration of additional environmental measures and compensation
10.13.1 No additional environmental measures are proposed to further reduce the climate
change effects that are identified in this PEIR. This is because all relevant and
implementable environmental measures have been embedded into the DCO
Project design and are assessed in this chapter. These environmental measures
are considered likely to be effective and deliverable, and would address the likely
significant effects of the DCO Project.
10.1.1 As no additional environmental measures were required, the final stages of the
ICCI and CCR assessments methodologies described in Graphic 10.2 and
Graphic 10.3 were not carried out.
Next Steps
Introduction
10.14.1 Further work that will be undertaken to support the climate change assessment
and presented within the ES is set out below.
Baseline
10.14.2 Operational performance statistics will be mapped against weather and climate
information to increase understanding of how existing assets and systems respond
to stresses, therefore enriching the evidence base.
Assessment
10.14.3 Supplementary survey data (for example, biodiversity) and modelling (for example,
Flood Risk) mean that the ICCI and CCR assessments will be refined from the
PEIR to ES to incorporate new information and detail.
Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 10: Climate Change
10.85 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
10.14.4 The climate hazards assessment will be updated to include elements of UKCP18
due in 2019, most notably the 2.2km projections that provide information on
localised extreme precipitation events. These will be used in more detailed
assessment of pluvial flooding. A more thorough assessment of UKCP18
information that combines the different tools available will be carried out where
appropriate, and the level of design warrants it.
10.14.5 The CCR assessment will incorporate more radical changes in climate using
sensitivity analyses where appropriate. The process for considering them in the
design and operation of the DCO Project will be described in the CCAP.
10.14.6 The full CCAP will be appended to the climate change aspect ES chapter. The
CCAP will outline the process by which the DCO Project will maintain resilience to
climate change throughout its design and construction, as well as through its
operation within the context of the existing airport.
Engagement
10.14.7 Further engagement that will be undertaken to inform the assessment of climate
change and presented within the ES is set out in Table 10.22.
Table 10.22: Further engagement
Engagement Participant Issues to be addressed Relevance to assessment
HSPG Communication of the CCAP
approach and seek agreement
on Community ICCI assessment
approach.
Required for consideration of
climate change in the ES.
Natural England Seek agreement on biodiversity
and landscape ICCI assessment
approach, as well as input to
climate change elements of the
green infrastructure and
landscape design strategy
documents.
Required for consideration of
climate change in the ES.
Public Health England Seek agreement on Health ICCI
assessment approach.
Required for consideration of
climate change in the ES.
Environment Agency Seek agreement of approach to
considering climate change in
groundwater modelling, and the
assessment of water quality.
Required for consideration of
climate change in the ES.