vliamos gravas foreign affairs no 42

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  • ForeigN AFFAirS[86]

    2010, , , - . Olivier Blanchard (2016), , - - - . Barry Eichengreen (2013), Berkeley -, (QE: quantitative easing) (US Federal Reserve) . - -

    - , / . - (PhD) - , . , MBA - / MSc. .

  • - 2016 [87]

    - - , , beggar-thy-neighbor 1930. - Fed, Ben Bernanke (2013), Joan Robinson (1947) - - 1929 - - .

    , ( 1929 2008), , -, - [1]. Harvard, Carmen Reinhart (2016a), , . - Bretton Woods, 1970, 2000. - 2004 2014, .

    , - , - - [2] G-20 - [3]. G-20 2010 , - ... - [4].

    , ... -

  • ForeigN AFFAirS[88]

    : ... - . , - , -. (U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2010), - , -, , , -, , . [ ] -. (IMF, 2010).

    - . , , - 2007-8 : , . , - () , status quo - . Eichengreen Temin (2010): - mentalit 19 ,

  • - 2016 [89]

    .... , - , , , Lehman Brothers 2008. - , - . -, - - , o , , . , - , - , - (risk premium) .

    Lehman : - - (Global Reserve Currency). Kissinger (2014) - 1848: - , . . 2008, - .

    O Piketty (2014, ..194-195) : 1980, 1990 2000, . -

  • ForeigN AFFAirS[90]

    - , - [5], 10% 1990 20% 2010....

    - . : - - . , - , . , , -. , , - - . - , - , - (-) . , - (Chimerika), - [6].

  • - 2016 [91]

    - . 20 , - . , - , - . . - . , , - . , , - . , , - Bretton Woods, . , ( ), .

    , - , ( 1920 1930), - , - , 2008 , - [7]. , , , , - . , . , [8] :

    , , , -

  • ForeigN AFFAirS[92]

    [9]. ,

    - , boom - : ( , ).

    , - - . - . () - . , , - - , , . , - ( ), -. , - - [10], - , .

    , - . -, 1930 2008, - , - 2009 , -

  • - 2016 [93]

    REUTERS/Charles Platiau

    45 Thomas Piketty, 12 2014.

    . , - Lehman Brothers, Financial Times Ferguson (2009) () -

  • ForeigN AFFAirS[94]

    , 2009, . , Krugman (2012, . 158-160). - (Fed, EKT) 2009 . , - 2009 :

    , Fed [11]. , , , (Krugman, 2012, .139-140), (interest rate differential) - , 2009 - - Fed.

    , , , (2009), - .

    , - Lehman - (lender of last resort), - ( ), , 2008 - ( TARP: Troubled Asset Relief Program), 700

  • - 2016 [95]

    . - , (Ibid, .138), . - 2009 , . , - () status quo .

    :

    , - 2008 , - . , :

    , Fed (0-0.25%), (ZLB: Zero Lower Bound) , .

    , , : , - , (Brexit), 2009 - 0.25% [12].

    , - (G-7) -

  • ForeigN AFFAirS[96]

    , - 5 [13].

    - , ( ), - .., , , 2%. , , - (trade-off) [14].

    , - . - : , , - - . Krugman (2012, .161-162), . , . , - -

  • - 2016 [97]

    . , , - , , - (deleveraging) [15], , - ( ) ( ). - , - (boom) - (bust) . Reinhart Rogoff (2011, .1681) [16] ---- (This-Time-Is-Different), : . , , .

    , - 1990 - , - () - . , . : - -, [17].

  • ForeigN AFFAirS[98]

    , Great Capitulation ( ): - , . . - - [18].

    , , 1980 - - - , , - (Reinhart, 2016b) [19]. -, - 2008-2009, - -, , . - 2000, , - , , ( - , ) - (conundrum) , [20]. Fed, -, , - (savings glut) - / [21]. , , - , - . , , -

  • - 2016 [99]

    , , , - , - - 1930 Wall Street 29. (secular stagnation[22])

    REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger

    GSA 13 2014.

  • ForeigN AFFAirS[100]

    - - , , - . - , [23].

    , Piketty (2014, . 100) : 21 ... , - ... - , .

    18 , - , - , 1930 2008.

    2007 - - Lehman 2008. , - (risk-free rate) ; - , . [24] . - , - - . , -

  • - 2016 [101]

    - . , , . , - - - . , , , , .

    , - , . , . - . : ( ), , - .

    Eichengreen (2013b, . 44), . - (policy regime) . : - - - ; 2008 - , . - - Fed EKT ( ). - 1920 : -, [25]

  • ForeigN AFFAirS[102]

    - .

    :

    [1] , -

    : 1930, Wall

    Street 29 ,

    Lehman Brothers 2008

    , , ,

    .

    [2] .

    , ,

    , . ,

    . .

    (Juncker, 2014)

    [3] . -

    . G-20

    . (IMF, 2013)

    [4] . G-20 2010 ,

    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/international/Documents/Final%20G-20%20

    FM%20Gyeongju%20Communique%20October%2023.pdf

    G-20 2010

    , http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2010/NEW102310A.htm.

    [5] () ( ), Piketty

    :

    ... (Ibid, . 193).

    [6] . Ferguson (2011).

    [7] . Krugman (1984) Eichengreen (2012).

    [8] Ibid.

    [9] ,

    - - .

    .. (foreign

    exchange forex) .

    [10]

    - - . (irreversible,

    , (ECB, 2012): When people

  • - 2016 [103]

    talk about the fragility of the euro and the increasing fragility of the euro, ,

    underestimate the amount of political capital that is being invested in the euro we

    think the euro is irreversibleWithin our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever

    it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough. (https://www.ecb.

    europa.eu/press/key/date/2012/html/sp120726.en.html). ,

    , , -

    .

    [11] , overnight fed funds

    2008

    0-0.25%.

    [12] http://www.kathimerini.gr/870017/article/oikonomia/die8nhs-oikonomia/h-trapeza-

    ths-agglias-meiwnei-ta-epitokia-gia-prwth-fora-apo-to-2009

    [13] . Summers, L. (2016).

    [14] Ibid.

    [15] Lo, S. Rogoff, K. (2015) 22

    , 2008, -

    ( ) ,

    , .

    [16] . Reinhart, C. & Rogoff, K. (2011).

    [17] . Krugman, P. (2013), : ,

    ( ) -

    .

    [18] . Summers, L. (2016) Krugman, P. (2016).

    [19] . Reinhart, C (2016b).

    [20] . Greenspan, A. (2005). -

    Fed ,

    : For the moment, the broadly unanticipated behavior of world bond

    markets remains a conundrum. Bond price movements may be a short-term

    aberration, but it will be some time before we are able to better judge the forces

    underlying recent experience.

    [21] . Bernanke (2005), The Changing Pattern of International Capital

    Flows an

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