vivek issues n options july 2013

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VIVEK : Issues and Options July2013 Issue: II No: VII 2

CULTURE

Ignoring ICCR: Undermining Indias So

Diplomacy

- Dr. Anirban GangulyDEFENCE

Reinforcing Indias Maritime CredentiaNeed Of The Hour

- Chietigij Bajpaee

EVENTS

VIF JINF Joint Study Launched -

Framework for Indo-Japanese Strategic

Partnership and Cooperation

Interaction With Mr David Mckean

VIF Interaction With The Iranian

Ambassador To India, HE Mr. Gholam

Reza Ansari

Vimarsha: 'Conflict Along India - China

Border: Myth And Reality'

Editors Note

CENTRE STAGE

Maoist War Against India: Time For United &

trong Response

- Ajit Doval, KCDIPLOMACY

ndia-China Relations: A Reality Check

- Lt Gen (Retd) Gautam BanerjeeNew Iranian President: West, India Need To

Wait And Watch

- Kanwal SibalMeeting Indias Energy Needs: A Challenge To

he Scientific Community

- Dr M N BuchPOLITICS

Remembering The Dreaded Emergency:

esson For Future Of Indian Democracy

- Dr. A Surya Prakashtate Funded Political Ad Campaigns Or

SYWAR?

- K G Suresh

Contents

3

4

8

22

26

34

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Editors Note

The entire nations focus this month has been on the devastation caused by the Uttarakhandfloods in which hundreds of lives were lost and national property worth thousands of crores were

extensively damaged. While natural phenomemon such as floods cannot be prevented,precaution and timely action could have contained the extent of loss. While it is important to fix

accountability for the callousness and criminal negligence that caused such damage, the need ofthe hour is also to put in place a long term disaster management strategy and policy that would

minimize the losses in any such future occurrence.

The dastardly attack by Maoists in Chhattisgarh on May 25 continues to dominate the nationaldiscourse. In this issue, our Director Mr Ajit Doval, an authority on internal security, has dwelt at

length about the problem. He has aptly concluded thus, The war (against Maoists) is difficultbut winnable. The need is for capacity building both at the Central and State levels and right

leadership to convert plans into realities on the ground. They have started the war; it will be

finished by us.

While we have witnessed a lot of rhetoric, hype and hoopla built around India-China relations

following Premier Li Keqiangs visit, it is very essential to do a reality check, which has been

extensively dealt with by Lt Gen (Retd) Gautam Banerjee.

The election of moderate Hassan Rowhani as the new Iranian President has ramifications forboth West Asia and India. Former Foreign Secretary Mr Kanwal Sibal in his article has

emphasised on the need to deftly handle this strategically important relationship.

Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it. Though the seminar circuit in the capital

seem to have almost forgotten the dreaded Emergency imposed on the intervening night of June25-26, 1975, noted author A Surya Prakash has recalled that dark chapter in Indias democractichistory lest we forget.

There are also other articles pertaining to the nations energy security, maritime credentials, statefunded political advertisement campaigns and decline of important institutions.

We are also in the process of giving a new look and feel to Vivek and our website.

Your valuable feedback is always welcome.

K G Suresh

Back to Contents


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Maoist War Against India: Time For

United & Strong Response

- Ajit Doval, KChe May 25th extremistattack by Maoists inChhattisgarh was one of the

depredations that hit India. But,more tragic is what follows delayed tactical response,leadership confusion andhelplessness, scripted statementscarrying no conviction and evenministers looking for opportunitiesto derive political mileage. In theworld of security what happens isimportant, but what decides theend game is how the governmentsrespond to them. While the formeris not always and fully in theircontrol, the latter is a matter oftheir conscious choice. The tragedyof what they fail to protect andprevent is compounded by thewrong or inadequate response thatguarantees perpetual failures.

There is a predictable pattern ofdiscourse that follows majorattacks. Political statements and

counter statements, Centre versusState blame game, accusations ofintelligence and security failure,all relevant, but leading nowhere.There is no clear and unequivocal

message to the perpetrators,enunciation of a new nationalpolicy and strategy, initiativestowards capacity building andpressing into action innovativetactical plans.

Prevention of this obfuscated

discourse necessitates clarity onthe fundamentals. Left wingextremists are enemies of thenation their ideology, politicalgoals, trans-national linkages,strategic plans all make it amplyclear. Their history of siding withthe Chinese during the 1962 war,supporting Pakistan Armys

genocide in East Pakistan anddubbing Indian intervention asimperialist, aligning withKashmiri separatists andsupporting North-East insurgentsleave no doubt about theirintentions. Their putting in placean 18,000 plus guerrilla force,nearly 16,000 sophisticated arms,

weapon procuring andmanufacturing infrastructure,fund raising abilities and aneffective propaganda apparatusclearly indicate their burgeoning

T

*Ajit Doval, KC - Director, VIF


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capacities. Misled by the rhetoricof them being social activists orcrusaders for the poor, we shouldnot underestimate their intentions

and capabilities. There is no roomto treat them anything other thanbeing enemies of the state whohave to be fought, vanquished andneutralised.

The second point that obfuscatesthe discourse is its politicaldimension. The message that goesout to the Naxalites is that thegovernment is confused and weak,dishonest andinsincere, lacks thegumption to takethe battle to itslogical end, andwilts under thepressure of media,local level politicalworkers, extremist linked NGOs,etc. The political cross-firebetween the Centre and the Statesonly gladdens their hearts. Thereis a need to make the message tothe extremists loud and clear thatthe state will use all its power toprotect its sovereign rights. In theinstant case, the Congress leaderswere wrong in trying to give it apolitical colour and advancepossible conspiracy theories. Thereis no ambiguity whatsoever aboutthe role and responsibility of theCentre and the States. Article 355

of the Constitution unequivocallyaffirms that It shall be the duty ofthe Union to protect every Stateagainst external aggression and

internal disturbance. Left WingExtremism (LWE) is no more apublic order issue, and falls wellwithin the innermost circle ofwhat Justice Hidayatullah callsthree concentric circles ofthreats. In the judgement in RamManohar Lohia vs. State of Bihar(1965), the Supreme Court

asserted that when a threattranscends limits of public orderand threatensinternal security,the overridingresponsibility lieswith the Union

government.However, to make

it happen, thePrime Minister needs to be strongto have his writ run both at theCentre and in the States.

The next requirement is stronglaws with an efficient criminaladministration system toadminister them. The threats,internal or external, that threatenthe unity, integrity andsovereignty of India, require adifferent jurisprudence thanordinary criminal laws and mustempower the state to deter andneutralise the enemies. The front

Left Wing Extremism (LWE) is

no more a public order issue,

and falls well within the

innermost circle of what Justice

Hidayatullah calls three

concentric circles of threats.


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has to be across the spectrum ofour intelligence capabilities andoperations. Concerted efforts tochoke Maoists sources of finance

and channels of procuringweapons also deserve highpriority.

The war is difficult but winnable.The need is for capacity buildingboth at the Central and Statelevels and right leadership to

convert plans into realities on theground. They have started thewar; it will be finished by us.

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India-China Relations: A Reality Check

- Lt Gen (Retd) Gautam BanerjeeThe Elephants Dilemma

ew Delhis purportedlymeek submission to whatis seen as arbitrary, at

times blatant, affront to Indiasnational dignity that is regularlyinflicted by Beijing, often comes infor sharp criticism by our strategic

community. Common citizens tooare dismayed when they find NewDelhi bending-backwards toreconcile to Beijingshighhandedness, sometimes afterlodging meek protest andsometimes allowing the arrogationto pass1. Many a times, as in thematter of the muscle flexing by the

Chinese Peoples LiberationArmys (PLA) at the Line of ActualControl (LAC), either the incidentsare left unreported, or when thatis unfeasible, down-playingexplanations are advanced tosoothe public consternation - acase of the victim holding brief forthe tormentor2!

In more disconcerting vein, therecomes grave provocations fromChina that amount to a sort ofhostility against our nationhood.

Besides, the mind bogglingnonsense of staking claim over thestate of Arunachal Pradesh,occupation of the Shaksgam Valleyin Ladakh, pumping up Pakistanwith military, nuclear and missilecapabilities a brazen recourse todestabilize India - and negation ofNew Delhis stance on terrorism goto exemplify Beijings obsessiveantipathy towards India3. In allsuch cases, New Delhi suffersthese inimical policies in stoicresignation. Thus, the criticismthat our strategic communityheaps upon the government of theday is not unjustified.

Governance in contemporary Indiais driven by economicconsiderations, as indeed it shouldbe. However, there are signsemanating from policy-makingconfabulations which indicate thatthe other fundamentals of nationalsecurity may be consigned to thesidelines in favour of the interests

of the commercial conglomerate.Obviously, when tested undereternal political wisdom, it is atrend dangerous for the future ofour nationhood. Even if the

N

*Lt Gen (Retd) Gautam Banerjee, Executive Council, VIF


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undertakings of national defenceare suspended as a temporarytrade-off in favour of economic-industrial take-off, as China did

during the 1980s and 1990s, thegoverning establishment may notbe absolved from its primarycharter that mandates, not thepromotion of business interests

per se, but the provision of secureand sovereign environment for thepeople to flourish.

The purpose here is, firstly, tosuggest that notwithstanding theenchanting dreamof ending geo-political rivalrythroughcommercialconnections, theSino-Indianrelationship mayremain contentious in theforeseeable future; and secondly,to argue that articulation of military power-backed diplomacywould be a hopeful optionfor Indiato live in peace with anoverwhelmingly powerful andpugnacious neighbour4.

Contentions Ever-InterminableOne comes across many theories toexplain Beijings compulsivehostility towards India. Expertsopine that the root causes of

Chinas aversion is the power-playof regional leadershipof the kindof that usually comes up betweenthe largest and the second largest

neighbours. Then of course, thereis Indias repudiation of Chinasterritorial claims and Chinaspiqu of Indians solidarity withthe Tibetan people. In economicterms, competition for energy,water and mining rights forstrategic minerals, and Chinasefforts to secure her sea lines of

communication are also identifiedas the points of contention. Nodoubt, all theseirritants add up toreinforce thealready existingmutual suspicion.However, with thekind of sabre-

rattling that Chinais frequently at, there is no doubtthat a powerful majority in theChinese establishment is afflictedwith a sense of apprehension vis--vis India. But then what mightthese apprehensions be, and whatcan India do about it?

The answer may lie in the weightof the contentious issues that casta shadow of unease upon Sino-Indo relations.

Regional Leadership?

In economic terms, competitionfor energy, water and miningrights for strategic minerals,and Chinas efforts to secureher sea lines of communicationare also identified as the pointsof contention.


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In the question of rivalry forleadership in the region, theverdict is clear. To state theobvious, China encompasses a vast

geographical area and unlimitedrange of resources. Traditionally,she cradles an extraordinary levelof socio-political as well aspractical intellect, and hasdeveloped sublime forms of civicand military wisdom in equalmeasure. It is her culturalstrength that allowed her to

preserve her sovereignty throughthe periodical shrinkages ofpolitical authority, never giving upher claims to rule over what sheconsidered her domain andstaking her rightful status as asuperior race of the MiddleKingdom.

Chinas fortune is again on an up-curve; she is a rising power ofmind boggling potential. Her gripover all segments of her society ispervasive and her technological,economic and military clout isgalloping sure and fast. Whilelining up to do business withChina so as to keep their domesticeconomies on track, even powerfulnations are compelled to be waryof the inevitability of securitychallenges emanating from thefire-breathing dragon. Indeed,there is little doubt regardingChinas global ascendancy in the

days to come; political thinkers arealready articulating the idea of herrole as a pro-active superpower.In bilateral context, her lead over

India on every aspect - politicalauthority, structural stability,economy, science and technologyand military power - is sooverwhelming, and continuouslyincreasing, that even a fleetingthought of closing the gap may bediscarded outright.

In contrast, India, though anequally ancient civilisation, hasnot articulated a proportionatebalance between spiritualism,socio-political wisdom andnationalism. All through herhistory, there have been shortperiods of powerful centralisationfollowed by long periods of politicaldisintegration that invited cyclicinvasions and foreign rule.Presently, even as her economyimproves and she emerges as anaccommodative member of theglobal polity, she is yet unable toarticulate her state-power todisperse such anti-nationaltendencies that emanate fromwithin or without5. Thus,notwithstanding a vibrantdemocracy in play, armedrebellion has displaced the state innearly one-fifth of the country.One third of her people remainmalnourished while numerous


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groups of ethnic, linguistic,casteist, religious, business andpolitical manipulators assail eachother, and by default, harm

national ideals. Meanwhile,inimical neighbours continue tosabotage her national interests,with impunity.

To be realistic, there is no wayIndia can stake claim for regionalleadership in the foreseeablefuture. Even if Beijing viewsIndias growing strategicrelationships with US, Japan,

Australia, Vietnam, Indonesia,Central Asian States andMyanmar asganging up tocontain her, shemay seek remedynot in targetingIndia, but in controlling her ownbrusque and over-bearing mannerof conducting regional diplomacy.Indeed, China need not slip into abanal belief that India could posea challenge to her ascendency inany manner6.

But that ghost of apprehensionmay be exorcised by the Chinese

themselves; India can do little toclear that perception.

The Tibet IssueThe Tibet issue is a cause ofconcern that sets Beijing on the

warpath. History records that theborders of successive Nanjing-Beijing empires have gone throughmany cycles of expansions and

contractions. Thus in someperiods, Beijings imperialisticcontrol extended westwards rightup to Turkmenistan, while atother times, revolt emanatingfrom outlying provinces caused theempires to shrink into just theHanpopulated areas of the HwangHo and Yang Ze River Basins 7.

Perhaps this ingrained memorymakes the ruling communistregime extremely sensitive to

situations in Tibet,Xinjiang and OuterMongolia. Chinese

leadershipsavowed purposebeing to perpetuate

the stability of their autarchicrule, the simmering discontent inTibet and world-wide solidaritywith the Tibetan cause must be acause of serious anxiety for them.Even her attempts to buy Tibetanpeoples loyalty throughaccelerated economic developmenthave failed to silence the skepticswho see it as a step to cascadeHan settlements and so alter thedemography of Tibet. Besides,economic prosperity stokes theurge for freedom, and therefore,the Free Tibet movement willremain a serious worry for the

To be realistic, there is no wayIndia can stake claim forregional leadership in theforeseeable future.


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Chinese leadership in theforeseeable future. India, insheltering a Tibetan Government-in-Exile, would continue to be

viewed as an upstart challenger,a potential destabiliser, whoneeds to be kept in place8.

There is really nothing that Indiacan do about successive DalaiLamas and their followers takingshelter in her territory. May beChina could do something abouther ways of dealing with theseunfortunate people so that they donot have to escape to India. Shecould reconcile to Indiascompulsions in accommodatingTibetan refugees under theestablished internationalconvention. May be New Delhissupport of Chinas causes invarious forums even in absence ofany reciprocal gesture would someday satiate Beijings complexes inthis regard.

Here again there is little thatIndia can do more than what shealready does do to assuage Chinasfears.

The Territorial DisputeIndias repudiation of Chinasoccupation of the strategicallysensitive Aksai Chin andShaksgam Valley, and outrightrejection of the unwarranted claim

over Tawang/Arunachal Pradeshfurther adds to the lattersconsternation. Indeed, it isdifficult to visualise India ceding

territories to humour Chinasexpansionist agenda, just as it isnave to expect China to ridherself of her deeply ingrainedinstincts of expansionisticphilosophy9. India, therefore, willcontinue to be a target for Beijingto vent her frustrations upon.

WaterThe Tibetan Plateau is the majorsource of sweet water thatsustains life in South and East

Asia. No doubt, diversion of suchwaters to enliven her heartlands isan enticing prospect for China.But when considered in the lightof international riparian laws and

the Middle Kingdoms compulsiveurge to secure great power status,of which display of sense ofresponsibility is an essentialingredient, the dream mayencounter major hurdles. Chinawill have to contend with the factthat diversion of waters from theBramhaputra, Sutluj and Indus

rivers would affect many otherneighbours, and that coalescenceof a coalition of victims of herhighhandedness, even if it is madeup of smaller and weaker nations,would be detrimental to her


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interests10. Thus, even iftechnological complexities,enormity of investment, decades ofconstruction and environmental

consequences may not deter her,and if the global political equationcontinues to remain favourable toChina during those decades, anyarbitrary diversion of waters byChina may not be beyond contest.

In the overall context therefore,China may not find India as thesole stumbling block on this issue;in India, it would continue to be acause ofdiscomfiturethough.

StrategicEncirclement?What is described

as Chinas string of pearlsstrategy - that is, establishment ofnaval facilities surrounding theIndian Peninsula in alliance withlittoral countries - would certainlystrengthen her sea lines of communication as well as miningprospects in the India Ocean; itwould also enhance her economic

and diplomatic clout. Indeed,China is free to seek politicalarrangements to create thisstring as she wants to, but thereis much concern that this stringwould lead to encirclement of

India. No doubt that string wouldpinch, but only if India fails toinvest in sea-power and takeadvantage of the strategic

situation of the peninsular Indiathat is best situated to control theIndian Ocean.

Rationally viewed, factoringfacilities for naval replenishmentlocated on foreign shoresthousands of nautical miles awayfrom mainland China asunassailable military bases, fromwhere flotillas of the PeoplesLiberation Army Navy (PLAN)

would supposedlyset about to imposeadversities uponother users of theIndian Ocean, maycause less anxietywhen tested in

light of the scales of naval forcesand logistics that would benecessary for that purpose. It maytake China four to five decades ofcontinuation of favourable internaland international order to realisethat purported goal, howsoeverdelightful that ambition might beto a compulsive hegemonist11.Besides, it would be an entire lotof nations whose interests wouldbe equally threatened by Chinasdominance over the Indian Ocean.

In the overall context therefore,China may not find India as thesole stumbling block on thisissue; in India, it wouldcontinue to be a cause ofdiscomfiture though.


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This issue, therefore, would be acommon concern among manynations, India included, that needsresolute preparations over time to

manage.

Competition for StrategicResourcesThere may be a case to view theissue of race for resources just as abusiness competition that is everpresent in all deals at all times.Such rivalries may not lead to

enmity per se12. Besides, securingglobal sources for supply ofassured energy and strategicminerals for one country does notimply that the other may have tostarve; the architecture ofeconomic exploitation of naturalresources is so intimatelyintertwined across the globe. The

concern that India wouldjeopardise Chinas energy hunt, orin securing her sources of energyChina will cause India to beshunted out, may not, either way,be so overwhelming 13.

The trade race may, therefore, beallowed to gain momentum

without acrimony.

Compelling ObservationsSino-Indian relationship is marredby such fundamental in-congruencies which cannot be

resolved at Indias instancewithout compromising her corevalues. New Delhi has to wait andhope that Beijing will some day

get rid of her anxiety over Indiataking what she believes to be herpie, but lot of water must flow outofTsang Pobefore that.

Keeping the Dragon at BayBeijings growing acts ofdiplomatic hostility, even to theextent that the understandings

reached in the past - the peace andtranquility agreement 2005, forexample - are sought to berepudiated through deliberate actsof negation, must remain apotential source of trouble forIndia 14. Therefore, stakes in geo-politics rise, Chinas insidiousmuscle flexing along our entire

Northern borders, across theIndian Ocean region and even oninternational waters, should beexpected. We are also aware of thefact that, Pakistan would continueto serve as Chinas proxy detractoragainst India. How does India dealwith a bellicose and belligerentChina is a strategic challenge.

How to keep the dragon off herback? How do we, as manystrategic thinkers opine, keepChinas predatory instincts incheck while concentrating on owneconomic progress?


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Lure of ComplacencyFirst, we may not take Chinasrhetoric of peaceful rise to power

on face value; firstly, because ingeo-politics, power never comespeacefully, and secondly, the peaceBeijing speaks of is but a peace onher terms.

Second, we may not be fixated tothe view that integration ofTaiwan is Chinas sole focus.Presently, that goal remains

farfetched, whereas Tibet is a liveissue in contention. Settlement ofthe Tibet issue willbring her a stepcloser tointegration ofTaiwan. Therefore,possibility of asituation when

Beijing may bolster her politico-economic measures with militarypower to overwhelm the Tibetanrefraction, is real. India willinvariably be embroiled in thatconflict in some manner or theother.

Third, growing bilateral trade may

not be a harbinger of disputeresolution. History bearstestimony to the fact that goodbusiness does not come in the wayof politico-military confrontation.

Fourth, the claim over whole ofthe Arunachal Pradesh may not beseen just as a bargaining posture.Such rhetorical claims, when

repeated over decades, tend to getcrystallised into nationalaspirations. When that happens,even authoritarian regimes areunable to back out against popularpressure.

Lastly, we may not dismiss thoseexperts who have recentlyexpressed the possibility ofanother Chinese attack on India.Of course, as expected, the manner

of the offensivemay differ. In anycase, we have to dobetter thanrepeating ourgullibility of the

pre-1962, post-Kutch 1965 andpre-Kargil kinds if we do not wishto suffer another visitation ofmisfortune.

Thus in the context of Chinasadversarial posture, New Delhihas to convince Beijing to limit heruncontrollable expansionist urgeto nothing beyond a ritualistic

war-dance.

Options Oft ArticulatedWill a tit-for-tat exchange work?

Asking Beijing either to move outthe PLA from Occupied Kashmir

Lastly, we may not dismissthose experts who have recentlyexpressed the possibility ofanother Chinese attack onIndia.


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or face the prospect of the IndianArmy moving intoAksai Chin, forexample? Or by sallying out todamage some huts and paint some

boulders across the LAC? CanIndia indulge in such charadewithout poking Beijing to up theante`?The obvious answer is thatsuch a bizarre game may make asubtle gesture, nothing more, butworse, it might invite a reactionthat India would be hard put toabsorb.

Can New Delhi impose such aregime of trade restrictions that itstarts hurting Chinas economy?By all accounts, such a step maycause some losses to China, but itscounter-effect on Indian economicprogress may be many times over.

After all, the weaker getstrampled first.

Growing economic inter-dependency could be thought of tomarginalise the hawks in Beijing,mainly the PLA and the rankcommunists. This may be a goodoption provided the economicbenefits are equitably balanced,not biased against India. Besides,

it needs to be appreciated thatnotwithstanding encouragingprophecies, economic bindingshave seldom prevented one statefrom undermining the other.Conversely, in her efforts to keep

the trade equation in her favour,China may find another cause tobe nasty.

Strength of human resourcesbolsters national security. Can webank upon that to stand up toBeijings arrogance? Well, thatcould be possible if we couldmaintain our lead in mathematicalgenius, English language,scientific temper and strong civilinstitutions that we had inheritedat independence. Sadly, that leadhas been lost, more or less; Chinacatches up fast when she wishesto, while India tends to entangleherself in endless arguments andagitations, nepotism andmobocracy, divisive compromisesand farcical politics. This optiontherefore is contingent upon Indiareinventing her societal strengthit is a far away option.

Possibly, India can leveragecommon cause with the UnitedStates, Japan, Vietnam, Australia,Indonesia, to name just a few, toblunt Chinas predatory tendency.Can such a leverage beaccomplished without provoking

China, something that wisdomtells us to better avoid? Can weprevent such collaborations withthe like minded parties nosaints themselves - fromundermining our interests in some


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limited war under conditions ofinformalisation.

A Smile and Gun OptionFrom the preceding discussion, itemerges that given thecompulsions under which it has tocarry the burden of statecraft, thecourses adopted by New Delhi inkeeping the overbearing dragonat bay have to be double-nuanced.Indeed, it makes sense to promotepolitical and economic

engagement, sometimesreconciling affronts with petulanceand showing occasional resolve15.However, since Beijing is noexception in respecting the powerof gun, that stoicism needs to bebacked up with an efficientmilitary machine that could bitepainfully even when bound. India

could work towards that level of military preparedness which, evenif she may not prevail, wouldmake a clash of force prohibitivelydear to China. History tell us thatit is possible to do so at a cost thatis affordable and a pace that isadaptable. Indian strategists maytherefore have to come to terms

with the aforementionedrestraining dispensations, and yetdevise strategies that would denyfree run to the PLA should Beijingdecide to settle her pique withforce.

But insight also tells us that theIndian system of administratingits military institution restricts,rather than sponsors such

exceptional strategies. Ourpolitical culture remains inoblivion of the nuances of cost-efficient management of militaryorganisation and development ofstrategic articulations, while theburden of defence policy making isconsigned to a school of pretendingstrategists made up of

bureaucrats, scientists andauditors - in exclusion of sanctifiedrepresentation from the militaryintellectuals! As the show of smugsatisfaction among the polity andthe media over raising of two armydivisions, or positioning someaircraft on the North-Eastfrontier, or successful launches of

missiles all half-measures,titillating but overall lopsided -indicates, innocence of theprofound nuances of war-fightingseems to pervade the entire state-apparatus. Consequently, evenwhile maintaining the thirdlargest army in the world, thenation remains bereft of theadvantages expected anddividends accrued. That is a sadsituation.

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Friendly engagement with Chinais a necessity that would workonly if it is cemented with thebacking of military strength. A

comprehensive revamp transformation, so to say of theIndian defence establishment istherefore overdue. This, however,may be possible only if there isfirm resolve in our politico-bureaucratic system to nurturemilitary expertise, foster synergybetween Indias numerous defence

and quasi-defence establishmentsand respect the time-lines of force-modernisation.

This condition does not prevailtoday.

Endnotes1. New Delhis reconciliation

with issue of stapled visa tothe residents of J&K,blocking the AsianDevelopment Bank loan for

Arunachal Pradesh andwhimsical response to thethreat of deluge along PareeChu in Himachal Pradeshare some examples.

Diplomatic protests, whenlodged, are disdainfullydismissed by Beijing, mostlyso.

2. Instances of damagingIndian bunkers, shooing

away bonafide graziers andpreventing trackconstruction work near theLAC to proceed are known.

Besides, of course, there areever increasing violations ofthe LAC. Indias attempts toexplain away theseviolations to her citizens asdiffering perceptions of thealignment of LAC betweenthe two sides does not reallywash since the Chinese have

consistently avoidedspecifying their perceptionof the LAC and so settle thisirritant till the border issueis resolved.

3. Since 2006, China clarifiesthat the entire ArunachalPradesh (Outer Tibet is thenewly invented

nomenclature!) is hers.Imagine an internationalboundary, running not alongthe watershed of massiveHimalayan Ranges, but overand across its reversefoothills! That is a glimpse ofChinese logic! In the case ofShaksgam Valley, onesquatter has gifted itstrespass to another! Themischievous deal has gone astep further: Chinese Armyis now operating in PakistanOccupied Kashmir.


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4. China and India have neverbeen neighbours. Tibet hasalways occupied that placeindependent of the ever-

changing Sino-Tibet politicalequations, till communistChina completely subsumedTibet nationalism in the1950s.

5.Arguably, the eulogisticchants of India being aneconomic power or even anemerging super-power

notwithstanding, she isactually just a businessdestination for thedeveloped nations to rakeprofit from. It is the lure ofprofit that causes thedeveloped world to lipenchanting adulations overIndias supposed success

story.6. Of course, China too facesnumerous problems. But sheis in control and is preparedto keep it that way,notwithstanding from someChina-watchers wishfulpredictions of a gatheringtrouble.

7.All this while, the vast beltof territory starting fromManchuria in the North, andcovering what are calledInner Mongolia, Quinghai,Gansu, Xinjiang and Tibetregions in the West, had

enjoyed freedom orsubjugation at varyingdegrees at one time or theother. It was only during the

early Manchu rule that themap of the empire appearedto be somewhat close to whatChina controls today, or laysclaim upon.

8. Recently, the instinctivemindset was revealed whencommenting on Indias Agni

V missile test, a Chinese

mouthpiece accused India ofentertaining visions ofimposing regionalhegemony, a status thatwas, by implication,considered to be reserved, bydivine consensus, for Chinaalone.

9. Ironically, the communistregime fully identifies withits much decried imperialistpast. Thus, the communistsclaim the largest areas thatwere ever controlled, or eventrod upon, by Beijing-basedempires at any point of time.By this logic India couldclaim Pakistan, Afghanistan,Myanmar etc, the Britainmay claim half the world,and every other country mayclaim every others territory!

10. As politicalphilosophers have contended,even the most powerful


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hegemons are consciousnessof a virtual red line whichwhen crossed, invites self-doom. Beijing will ignore

that line at her peril.11. A static internationalorder is nearly impossible toimagine. Besides,encirclement of the Coldwar era is invalid in todaysworld. Granting a footholdfor naval replenishment doesnot necessarily mean that

hostile acts against anothercountry will find auto-endorsement.

12. India opted to purchasefighter aircraft from theFrench stable, much toconsternation in the US. Andthat did not lead to a duel.

13. Economic and societalsurvival of nations thatexport and import energyand other minerals is sointer-wound that any majordisruption in the cycle willdevastate societies of bothcategories. The effect will beglobalit will lead to a kindof global chaos.

14. We may recount threecases of Beijings diplomaticduplicity. One, when askedas to why wasnt herterritorial claims raised

before the late 1950s, Zhouen Lai replied that the timewas not ripe!; two, the volte-face on Beijings stance on

Sikkim; three, claim over allof Arunachal Pradesh andinvention of the term OuterTibet. Indeed, it is hard toreconcile to a great nationindulging in such undignifiedtricks.

15. Instances of eitherversions of reactions are:

one, ignoring the recentepisode of visa denial to anofficer hailing from

Arunachal Pradesh andgoing ahead with a truncateddelegation on militaryexchange; and two, petulantreconciliation with PLAsmove into Pakistan Occupied

Kashmir by simply statingthat the matter was beingwatched. Conversely,resolve was shown in goingahead with explorations inthe South China Sea,rejecting Beijings warning.

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New Iranian President: West, India Need

To Wait And Watch

- Kanwal Sibalassan Rowhanis electionas President of Iran onJune 14 is unlikely to

materially change the dynamics ofthe conflict between Iran and thewestern powers. The reformistsin Iran who have backed Rowhaniwant improved handling of Iransdiplomacy though not at the costof yielding on principles.

On the nuclear issue and relationswith the US, the Iranian positionshave become entrenched over aperiod of fruitless negotiations andcumulation of mutual suspicions,with robust sanctions imposed by

the US and Europe and militarythreats against the country,including by Israel, making theresolution of issues morecomplicated politically andprocedurally.

SituationThe situation has become moretangled because of social andmilitary convulsions in the Arabworld leading to the emergence ofconservative Muslim Brotherhood

regimes in the north Africanlittoral with extremist Salafistgroups in tow. This has sharpenedthe confrontation between Iranand Saudi Arabia, anchored into awidening Shia-Sunni divide in thisregion as a whole, with Iran beingaccused of actively feeding Shiaturbulence across the Arab world.Possibly even more than the West,the Gulf countries would wish tosee the growing Iranian powercurbed.

The Syrian issue has added toIran-related anxieties. Iran is seenas Syrias strongest regional

supporter, with Syria also servingas its link to the Hezbollah inLebanon. If the Sunni Arab worldled by Qatar and Saudi Arabiawould want the Alawite regime ofPresident Assad to collapse so thatIranian influence in the region isdiminished, Iran would want toretain its influence in the arc

consisting of Iraq, Syria andLebanon and thus remain a vitalfactor in regional politics.

Barring Turkey, which today

H

*Kanwal Sibal, Dean, Centre for International Relations and Diplomacy, VIF


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seeks an Arab role as an Islamiccountry, contrary to its historicaltilt towards Europe as a secularcountry, Iran sees itself as the

regions largest countrydemographically andgeographically, with massiveenergy resources, a well educatedand technologically skilledpopulation and potentially theregions biggest market, andtherefore impossible to ignore.

With Shias now ruling in Iraq andIrans role in Afghanistan set toexpand after the US withdrawaland Indias searchfor connectivity to

Afghanistanthrough Chabaharfor retaining itsown influencethere, and withSaudi Arabia and Qatar feelingthreatened by Iranian power, theIranians can well conclude thatthe overall situation is playing intheir favour despite westernattempts to squeeze their countryeconomically through sanctions.

The Israeli factor is a huge

obstacle in the way of anybalanced resolution of the Iran-West conflict- one that cedes somestrategic ground to Iran. Israelwould want Irans nuclearcapability- seen as an existential

threat- to be completelyeliminated. If concerns that Iranmay use its nuclear weaponsagainst Israel in some future

scenario seem highly exaggerated,its fears that with its nuclearcapability giving it immunityagainst any retaliation, Iran mayprovide more potent support toHezbollah to stage attacks againstIsrael are less imaginary, as ourown experience with Pakistan tellus. This explains why Israel backs

the elimination of the secularAssad regime even if it is replacedby Sunni extremist groups,

because for it thebreaking of theIran-Hezbollah linkthrough the

Alawite Assadregime would be

paramount.Significantly, Israel and Qatar aretogether in this game.

ObamaThe pro-Israel lobby in the US isworking to ensure that PresidentObama maintains a coercive linetowards Iran. In part to forestall

any precipitate Israeli militaryaction, Obama has imposed severeenergy and financial sanctions onIran- the latest on June 3targeting the already heavily

The Israeli factor is a hugeobstacle in the way of anybalanced resolution of theIran-West conflict- one thatcedes some strategic ground toIran.


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depreciated Rial and Iransautomotive industry.

For reasons of domestic politics

too, the White House seemscurrently unreceptive to anyconstructive move to beginuntying the Iranian nuclear knot.Obamas primary focus is on hisdomestic agenda for carryingthrough which he needs every votethat he can possibly muster in theHouse of Representatives. Withthe Israeli lobby in the Congressalready contributing tosystematically blocking hisinitiatives, Obamawill not apparentlytake the risk toalienate it furtherby any overturetowards Iran. JohnMcCains hawkish position on Iranhas made his position even moredifficult.

RowhaniRowhani, who was the chiefnuclear negotiator when Iransuspended uranium enrichment in2003, is considered a moderate.

His operational style being verydifferent from that of hispredecessor, he will avoidantagonizing the USunnecessarily. His election in thefirst round itself, without

accusations of vote-rigging, giveshim credibility. However, it is wellunderstood that on key politicaland security issues, including the

nuclear one, it is Ali Khameneiwho has the last word. How muchcan Rowhanis supposedmoderation orient Iranian policieson various contentious issues in apositive direction remainsquestionable. He will also have todeal with the nuclear hardliners inthe Revolutionary Guards Corps

and the Qods Force.During his electoral campaign,

Rowhani had calledfor President Assadto remain in powertill the scheduled2014 elections. Athis first press

conference on June 17, he ruledout any suspension of uraniumenrichment but mentioned hisdesire to make Irans nuclearactivities more transparent inorder to build internationalconfidence. He reiterated that Iranwould welcome direct negotiationswith the US if the latter stoppedattempting to meddle in Iransinternal affairs and abandoned itsbullying attitude. If the Westwas looking for new thinking,that is not discernible yet.

How much can Rowhanissupposed moderation orientIranian policies on variouscontentious issues in a positivedirection remains questionable.


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Rowhani, who has dealt with Indiabefore, should be a friendlyinterlocutor. Our relationship withIran has suffered because of

stringent western sanctionsagainst Iran. Although we have

handled fairly deftly ourdifficulties so far, the naturalexpansion of India-Iran ties willhave to await a resolution of the

Iran-West conflict.

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Meeting Indias Energy Needs: A

Challenge To The Scientific Community

- Dr M N Bucht is a paradox that India,which is the fifth largestproducer of electricity at

approximately 2,12,000 MW, isalso the lowest per capitaconsumer of electricity at 704units as compared with 13616units in the United States of

America, a world average of 2752units, with even China having aper capita consumption of 2328units. There is obviously a totalmismatch between the size of ourpopulation and the quantum ofpower generated by us. Of thepower generated, a whopping66.91 percent is accounted for bythermal power. The fuel largelyused for thermal power is coal,with coal based generationaccounting for 57.42 percent.Hydro power, which is clean andrelatively cheap, accounts for18.61 percent of production,nuclear for 2.25 percent andrenewable sources such as wind,

biomass, bagasse cogenerationaccounting for 12.20 percent of thetotal power generation. Thus,more than two-third of power

generation in India is based onfuels which are polluting andcreate a large carbon footprint.

It has been officially stated thatfor India to have even areasonable availability of power bythe end of the year 2013, we

should increase our powergeneration from 2.12 lakh MW toat least 2.50 lakh MW, with aneight to nine percent growth ofgeneration per annum, whichleads to the level of 10 lakh MW ofpower by 2050. That amounts to aterawatt of power. In the twelfthplan, the proposal is that 88000

MW of additional power begenerated which, taking intoaccount increased demand, wouldstill not close the gap betweenpower availability and powerdemand which, at present standsat 11.6 percent, rising to 15percent during peak load.

In the matter of generation, whatare the options available to us? Itis planned under the JawaharlalNehru National Solar Mission to

I

*Dr M N Buch, Dean, Centre for Governance and Political Studies, VIF


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add 22,000 MW of power throughsolar sources by 2022. Solarradiation is high throughout Indiaand, therefore, we should be able

to expand the programmesubstantially, but for one factor.Conversion of solar energy intoelectricity has a very low efficiencyfactor, hovering around 20percent. To take the analogy ofrailway traction, the steam enginehad a conversion factor of about 30percent, which rose to about 60

percent with diesel electrictraction. With allelectric tractionthis goes up tobetween 75 and 80percent. In aprocess of powergeneration inwhich the efficiency

of conversion isonly about 20percent, can any generationinfrastructure with such a lowplant load factor be a trulyeffective instrument of deliveringpower on a national scale?Disaggregated generation and useof solar power directed at thehousehold or a small communityseems to be perfectly in order.Massive production of solar powerto feed the grid is a completelydifferent proposition. I state thisnot as an argument against solarpower, but as a caution about

whether conversion of solar energyinto electric power is necessarilythe best and most economicalsolution to our power

requirements.

Thermal power, even with all thedevices such as electrostaticprecipitators, filter systems whichcapture particulate matter andeven systems of carbon recoveryonly partially deals with theproblem. Apart from its carbonfootprint, a coal based thermalpower station is prodigal in its use

of cooling waterand the fly ashgenerated by sucha power plant hascreated waste

managementproblems on agigantic scale.Considering the

preponderance of thermalgeneration, regardless ofenvironmental issues, one does notsee a reduction in the role ofthermal generation in theforeseeable future and we have totry and reduce the negativefactors.

Hydro power is cheap,nonpolluting and should be amajor source of energy in acountry where it is the hills andmountains in which our rivers,

Conversion of solar energy intoelectricity has a very lowefficiency factor, hoveringaround 20 percent. To take theanalogy of railway traction, thesteam engine had a conversionfactor of about 30 percent,which rose to about 60 percent

with diesel electric traction.


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both Himalayan and Peninsular,rise, with steep gradients in theearly part of their courses as theyplunge towards plains. There is an

almost unlimited source of hydelpower available to us, but thereare major problems associated.Had the present day environmentactivists existed then, theGersoppa and Jog falls wouldnever have been used for hydelgeneration, nor wouldJogindernagar have existed. The

problem with hydel generation isthat one has to create a barrieracross a river, such as the BhakraDam, both impounding water andcreating a vertical drop whichwould enable hydel generationthrough turbines driven by therushing waters. Environmentalactivists, including Sunderlal

Bahuguna, are totally opposed toany dams. Their arguments arebased on the assertion that thereis lack of safety because of seismicactivity in fragile mountain areas,the acquisition of land involved increating a lake, the felling of treesin the basin of the lake andinterference with the course offlow of our mountain and hillrivers. The environmental lobbyhas been so powerful that thesecond phase of Maneri-Bhali onthe Bhagirathi River has beenscrapped. Virtually every singledam is opposed and, therefore,

hydel generation has come undersevere threat in India. Commonsense demands that a balanceshould be struck between hydel

generation and environmentalissues because both are important,but the positions taken are soextreme that it is almostimpossible to find a via media.

One single example illustrates thispoint. The Narmada, which arisesat Amarkantak in MadhyaPradesh, flows for more than 85percent of its length in MadhyaPradesh. Madhya Pradesh is notonly the upper riparianit is alsothe major user or, rather, shouldbe the major user of Narmadawater. The Narmada Bachao

Andolan (NBA) has opposedprojects on the Narmada tooth andnail. The Gujarat Government, onthe other hand, where the largestdam on the Narmada, SardarSarovar, is located has made theNarmada waters an article offaith. The Supreme Court and theState High Courts have sometimesbeen facilitators but more oftenobstructionists. The Narmada issupposed to have 29 major, 450medium and 3000 minor projectson it and its tributaries. Most ofthe projects are stalled, many ofthem after hundreds of crores ofrupees have been spent. SardarSarovar is the only one which has


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been completed and benefits of itare flowing throughout Gujarat,with a major share of powercoming to Madhya Pradesh. What

some people choose not to believeis that the Narmada can be amajor source of hydel generationand Sardar Sarovar alonegenerates 1400 MW of clean powerOmkareshwar and Maheshwarshould double this, but thanks toNBA, the projects are making veryslow headway. Without going into

the merits of the agitation, one cansafely say it is asymbol of how amajor source ofgeneration of cleanpower has beenstymied.

India has set itselfa target ofgenerating 20percent of energyfrom renewable sources by 2017.Can we achieve this? Not at thepresent pace. For example, in thematter of grid interactiverenewable power, the target for2011-12 for wind power was 2400MW. We have achieved during thisperiod generation of 833 MW, thatis, approximately 35 percent of thetarget. In the case of micro hydelprojects, as against a modesttarget of 350 MW, India hasachieved only 111.3 MW, which

comes to 31.8 percent of the target.In the case of solar power, only 2.5percent of the target has beenachieved. Gujarat and now

Madhya Pradesh are striving topush solar energy, but how soonthe results would be achievedremains to be seen.

That brings us to nuclear energyas a major source of powergeneration. Prime MinisterManmohan Singh even put hisgovernment at risk in order to

push a treaty withthe United Statesof America whichwould enable Indiato move out of thepariah category inthe nuclear worldand be accepted asa global partner inthe peaceful use ofnuclear energy.

With many ifs and buts, thetreaty went through, with thePrime Minister arguing that ifIndia were to become energysufficient and through a cleansource of generation, we had nooption but nuclear power. Theentire nuclear power generationprogramme is based on thepremise that it is the cleanestform of energy because there areno emissions, nuclear powerstations do not add gaseous or

Prime Minister ManmohanSingh even put his governmentat risk in order to push a treatywith the United States of

America which would enableIndia to move out of the pariahcategory in the nuclear worldand be accepted as a globalpartner in the peaceful use of

nuclear energy.


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particulate matter to theatmosphere, there is no carbongeneration and there are nomountains of fly ash such as one

finds in a coal based thermalpower station. The only danger isa Chernobyl type explosion whichreleased radioactive material, or aThree-Mile Island type of meltdown which, fortunately, wascontained. Then, of course, onehad Fukushima in which thenuclear power station was

wrecked by a tsunami and it isonly the heroic sacrifices bydedicated Japanese engineerswhich prevented this mishap frombeing converted into a disasterwhich would have devastatedJapan.

In India, new nuclear plantsinclude the one which is in theprocess of becoming operational inKudankulam in Tamil Nadu andtwo which are in an advancedstage of planning. These includeJaitapur in Maharashtra and aproposed plant in the MandlaDistrict of Madhya Pradesh.

Activists and even a section ofscientists are strongly opposed tothese plants on account of safety.In some ways, the Fukushimadisaster has triggered gravedoubts about nuclear power plantslocated near the coast because it isfeared that a tsunami can

overtake them, leading todevastating results. There havebeen large scale and continuingprotests Against Kudankulam and

Jaitapur. . The Prime Ministerand the entire nuclear scienceestablishments have no suchdoubts. Their way to reassure thepeople about the safety of thesepower plants is to virtuallyguarantee that neither Chernobylnor Fukushima can ever berepeated in India. Those who are

opposed these plants refuse to buythe governments arguments, notonly because they question thescientific basis of certifying theplants to be safe, but also onaccount of very little credibilityremaining with government as onefinancial scandal after anotherhits India. Neil Armstrong, the

first man on the moon, was askedon his return what passed throughhis mind as he blasted into space.His reply was, The first thought Ihad was that every single part ofthe moon rocket had been suppliedby the lowest tenderer. Even inthe United States, doubts have beexpressed about quality and withour penchant for cutting cornerswhen tendering and then trying torecoup any loss by substandardwork, one certainly shares somesympathy for those who questionsafety guarantees. Nevertheless,the government has argued


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vehemently that India has nooption but to adopt nuclear powergeneration as a major source ofenergy in the years to come.

The whole debate centres aroundthe absolutely unavoidable need toincrease our generation capacity ifIndia is to modernise. If power isviewed as a commodity, then as inthe case of all commodities, thereis both a demand and supply of thecommodity. Our present approachto electricity is focused only onsupply because it is taken as giventhat demand willride a rising curveand that if India isto modernize,demand must bemade to rise verysharply. Thatscenario leaves uswith no optionother than increasing ourgeneration capacity. Depending onfinite resources, there is bound tocome a time when we cannotincrease power supply and thenwe would run into a massiveproblem of a demand driveneconomy being brought to a haltbecause the supply side has failed.

Is electricity necessarily acommodity? Is it not aconvenience? Before powertraction came on the scene, travel

was a function of the humanmuscle, animal power, waterpower and wind power whichmoved sailing ships. Many things

which we take for granted todaywere not available, but there wasan ecological equilibrium the valueof which we have never taken intoaccount. We certainly cannotrevert to the pre-automobileengine era and that thisconvenience, electricity, hasbecome more than a convenience,

more than a commodity because ithas become a vital necessity. It is,therefore,

necessary to acceptthat India needselectrical power forits electronicapplication. Oncethis is established,

then the questionarises from wherewill it obtain this power?Unfortunately, the country notreally seriously looked at thedemand side. Electricity is a primemover, which is defined by theChambers Twenty-first Dictionaryas the force that is most effectivein setting something in motion.That means that the morecumbersome, more inefficient athing which is to be set in motionis, it will require a much largerquantity of the prime mover, inthis case electricity. Traction

. Our present approach to

electricity is focused only on

supply because it is taken as

given that demand will ride a

rising curve and that if India is

to modernize, demand must be

made to rise very sharply.


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motors largely use electricity asthe prime mover. Let us take thecase of a ceiling fan whose motoruses between 60 and 100 watts of

power. If the motor were to bemade so efficient that it consumesonly 10 watts, we would have a600 percent saving of power on aceiling fan. Multiply this by croresof ceiling fans in use in a hottropical country and the mindcannot even grasp how muchpower would be saved by this one

improvement. Take every othermotor, whether it be the tractionmotors of a railway train, themotors which drive heavymachinery in an industry, themotors which drive pumps whichlift water for irrigation and onewould find that by substantiallyimproving the conversion factor of

power to motion one couldprobably make do with about halfthe power we generate today. Wecould then concentrate on makingour power stations more efficient,increase the plant load factor toalmost a ratio of 1:1 and also inthe process reduce pollution fromthese power plants to anacceptable level. It is only afterthis new equilibrium isestablished that we should thinkof more forms of application ofelectricity and, therefore,additional power generation.

I am not a scientist but have seenhow Japanese scientists took theold valve radio set, transferred thecircuitry to a button size transistor

and gave us a radio set about thesize of a pack of playing cards andtransformed the entireinformation technology scene.Today semi conductors, the microchip, the integrated circuit allowall sorts of equipment to functionon a 1.5 volt battery and haveeliminated the need for continuous

mains supply to these appliances.I have suggested to the IndianInstitutes of Technology that theyshould have a very strong researchprogramme which looks at powerdemand and then come up withsolutions which reduce demand assuggested above. The researchwould not be glamorous because it

will deal with such mundane itemsas submersible pumps for liftingwater from a tube well. It will notdrive a Ferrari or a Lamborghini.It will be used by commoncultivators, but such researchwould transform the entire powerscenario in India and the world.Will any of our institutes oftechnology take up the challenge?My humble submission is that theroute to the Nobel Prize does notnecessarily lie in fundamentalresearch. Applied research whichtakes electricity and makes it a


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truly thrifty servant of man canalso lead to a Nobel Prize.

What is stated above is only a

commonsense approach and onewonders why neither activists, norscientists, nor the technologistsare pushing it. A standardargument is that research whichleads to efficiency of virtuallyevery appliance which useselectric power would be veryexpensive and would push the costof the commodity beyond ordinarylevels of affordability. Perhaps thisis true, but only sofar as the prototypeis concerned.Replication of aprototype does notcall for cost to beincurred onresearch and whenthe prototype istested, proved and found to beacceptable, its mass productionwould bring the unit cost down tonot more than what the presentappliance costs. Look howexpensive were the originalcumbersome, slow and clumsycomputers. Refining, fine-tuningand mass production have broughtthe computer within the reach ofevery common man. This is true ofmobile telephony. Why should itfail in the massively widespectrum of electrical and

electronic goods which have nowbecome a part of our daily life?Industry, government, thescientific establishment and our

Institutes of Technology mustcome together with a very specificand determined programme tomake the use of electrical energyso efficient that a little bit goes along way. There can be notokenism in this programmebecause if India is to survive as anecologically and environmentally

healthy, modern nation in whichpower is harnessed for mansneeds and there isenough power foreveryone, thenefficiency ofeverything whichneeds power tooperate has to be

central to ourphilosophy of use ofpower. Whether we put a man onthe moon or not is not veryrelevant. Whether we can makeone megawatt of power performthe same function as a hundredmegawatts of power is vital to oursurvival. Will our scientific andtechnological establishmentrespond favourably?

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Industry, government, thescientific establishment andour Institutes of Technologymust come together with a veryspecific and determinedprogramme to make the use ofelectrical energy so efficientthat a little bit goes a long way.


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Remembering The Dreaded Emergency:

Lesson For Future Of Indian Democracy

- Dr. A Surya Prakashune 25 marks the 38thanniversary of the dreadedEmergency that turned a

vibrant Indian democracy into adictatorship. It was imposed bythe then Prime Minister IndiraGandhi in 1975 to gain absolutepower after she was found guiltyof corrupt electoral practice by the

Allahabad High Court. Unwillingto accept the judicial verdict, MsGandhi got a pliant President toissue a proclamation under Article352 of the Constitution to imposean internal emergency. Theemergency, which lasted 19months, constituted the darkesthour for Indias democracy. TheConstitution was mutilated,parliament was reduced to arubber stamp and the media wasgagged. Even the judiciary failedto stand up to the tyrannicalregime. As a result, the people ofIndia lost their basic freedoms andcame face to face with fascism.

Democracy was restored after thedefeat of the Congress Party in theMarch, 1977 Lok Sabha election.

Here is a brief account of how it all

started and what the IndiraGandhi government did toParliament, the Media, theJudiciary and more importantly,to the basic freedoms of the people.The political crisis that led to theimposition of the emergency beganon June 12, 1975 when JusticeJagmohanlal Sinha of AllahabadHigh Court held Prime MinisterIndira Gandhi guilty of corruptpractice in the Lok Sabha electionof 1971. The judge held herelection to parliament as void andbarred her from contestingelections for six years. On arequest by Indira Gandhis lawyer,the judge stayed his own order for20 days to enable her to go inappeal.

Indira Gandhis lawyers filed anappeal in the Supreme Court.Justice V.R.Krishna Iyer, passedorders on this petition on June 24,but the interregnum was used by

the Congress Party to stage aseries of rent-a-crowd-rallies insupport of Indira Gandhi outsideher residence. The biggest rallywas held on June 20 and for this

J

*Dr. A Surya Prakash, Distinguished Fellow, VIF


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the Delhi administration and theDelhi Police commandeered 1700buses and the railways ran specialtrains from far and near. Since all

buses were forcibly requisitionedfor the rally, citizens of Delhi hadto do without public transport thatday.

Indira Gandhi had hoped that theSupreme Court would provide herrelief but that was not to be.Justice Iyer granted a conditionalstay of Justice Sinhas decision.He barredIndira Gandhi from participatingin debates or votingin Parliament andreferred the matterto a larger Bench ofthe Court.

Meanwhile, the

opposition parties got together topress for Indira Gandhisresignation in the light of the

Allahabad High Court judgement.Justice Iyers order, prohibitingthe Prime Minister from voting inparliament or participating indebates, had made her positioneven more untenable, they said

and demanded that she must quitoffice forthwith. They held amassive rally in the Ramlilagrounds on June 25, which wasaddressed by the Sardovaya leaderand freedom fighter Jayaprakash

Narayan, who was leading themovement to cleanse politics, anda host of other leaders. The PrimeMinister, they said, was moving

towards dictatorship and fascism.On the other hand, IndiraGandhis son, Sanjay Gandhi andmany of her friends and politicalassociates were pushing hertowards a confrontation and wereeven suggesting measures thatcould wreck the Constitution.Siddhartha Shankar Ray and

several others came up withsuggestions which had the sameeffect snuffing out democracy.

Every member ofthe Prime

Ministershousehold

appeared to begravitating

towards the same idea crushpolitical opponents and cling topower at any cost.

In the months preceding theAllahabad High Court judgement,Sanjay Gandhi had emerged as anextra-constitutional authority andpeople in government and theCongress Party were seen cringingand crawling before this newcentre of power. When he foundCongressmen and officials at hisfeet, Sanjay summoned ChiefMinisters to the Prime Ministersresidence and began preparing

Meanwhile, the oppositionparties got together to press forIndira Gandhis resignation inthe light of the Allahabad HighCourt judgement.


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lists of opposition politicians who,in his view, deserved to be putaway. As congressmen vied witheach other to produce hired crowds

before her house, Indira Gandhicalled S.S.Ray and told him thecountry needed a shocktreatment. Ray said she couldgive India the shock treatment byimposing an internal emergencyunder Article 352 of theConstitution.

Thereafter, Indira Gandhi,accompanied by Ray, went to thePresident and asked him toimpose an internal emergencyunder Article 352. She said therewas no time to call a meeting ofthe Union Cabinet to discuss theproposal. On her return from thePresidents House, she sent aletter to the Presidentaccompanied by a proclamation.President Fakruddin Ali Ahmed,who was a rubber stampPresident, signed on the dottedline. The rules governing conductof business in government prohibita Prime Minister from takingunilateral decisions in matterssuch as these. It is mandatory thatthis be placed before the Cabinet.But the President lacked themoral fibre to protect theConstitution. As a result, hemeekly succumbed and signed theEmergency proclamation.

Once the deed was done, IndiaGandhis household got out thelists and the police forces acrossthe country were directed to arrest

leaders of opposition parties.Jayaprakash Narayan, MorarjiDesai, Atal Behari Vajpayee, LalKrishna Advani, MadhuDandavate, S.N.Mishra,Subramanian Swamy and a hostof other leaders were arrested andsent to jails in Delhi, Bangaloreand other places. Next, on Sanjay

Gandhis orders electricity was cutoff on New Delhis Fleet Street Bahadurshah Zafar Marg, toprevent publication of newspapersnext morning.

Having thus succeeded soeffortlessly in wrecking theConstitutional scheme, IndiraGandhi summoned the UnionCabinet at 6 a.m on June 26 toinform it of her decision toimpose an internal emergencyunder Article 352. The Cabinetcapitulated and without discussiongave post-facto ratification to thisdecision. Soon thereafter, theHome Ministry imposedcensorship on the media andprohibited newspapers frompublishing news about detentions.

A Chief Censor was appointed tokeep a close watch of newspapersand journalists.


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Once this infrastructure fordictatorship had been laid, otherthings followed. On June 27, 1975the President issued an order

suspending citizens right to movethe courts for enforcement offundamental rights guaranteedunder Article 14 ( equality beforelaw and equal protection of thelaw), Article 21 ( no deprivation oflife and liberty except byprocedure established by law),

Article 22 ( no detention without

being informed of the grounds forit). With the passage of this order,citizens lost theirfundamental rightto life and liberty.Later during theemergency, thePresident passedyet another order

suspending theright of citizens to move court forenforcement of freedoms under

Article 19.

Armed with these draconianpowers, the government wentabout arresting politicians,

journalists, academics and personsfrom other walks of life whoopposed the Emergency.Most of them were locked upunder the dreaded Maintenance ofInternal Security Act (MISA) withofficials fabricating charges. MISAitself was amended to prohibit

courts from applying theprinciples of natural justice inMISA detention cases. Even moreextraordinary was the amendment

which said disclosure of grounds ofdetention were not necessary, thatthe grounds were confidentialand should not be communicatedto the detenues or the courts andto bar representations againstdetention.

Meanwhile sycophancy reachedthe zenith. Dev Kant Barooah,President of the Congress Partydeclared Indira is India, India is

Indira.

One of the mostugly features of theEmergency was

forciblesterilisation of the

population and cleaning up ofcities on Sanjay Gandhis order. Inorder to achieve quick results,Indira Gandhi assignedsterilization targets to all ChiefMinisters, who in turn passed ontargets to all government servantsincluding teachers and policemen.The police went about target

achievement in the only way theyknow. They surrounded villages,nabbed all males a la municipalsquads which trap street dogs, andcarted them off to the nearestprimary health centers to be

Later during the emergency,the President passed yetanother order suspending theright of citizens to move courtfor enforcement of freedomsunder Article 19.


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vasectomised. When villagersresisted, the police opened firekilling and injuring manyprotestors. Villages largely

inhabited by Muslims werespecially targeted because thegovernment believed thiscommunity was against populationcontrol. Similar atrocities wereperpetrated in the name ofcleaning up Delhi. Backed by astrong police force, municipalofficials in Delhi swooped on

residents of Turkman Gate andother areas and bulldozedhundreds of homes. Dozens ofcitizens lost their lives in the riotsthat broke out in the area.

A word about the conduct ofdifferent organs of the State.Parliament buckled underpressure and passed some of themost atrocious constitutionalamendments including the 42

Amendment which stuck a bigblow against the foundations ofdemocracy. The speeches made byCongress MPs during thesedebates constitute the mostshameful acts of sycophancy. TheSupreme Court did not cover itselfin glory either. Tragically, thisinstitution too failed to stand upfor the fundamental rights ofcitizens. The most glaring exampleof its capitulation to the rulingestablishment was its infamous

judgement in A.D.M.Jabalpur VsShiv Kant Shukla delivered on

April 28, 1976 in which it declaredthat in view of the presidential

order suspending fundamentalrights, no citizen had the right toapproach a court to safeguard hisright to life and liberty. Barringhonourable exceptions, the media,which came under harshcensorship on a daily basis,buckled under governmentpressure. The conduct of the

bureaucracy was pathetic. Mostbureaucrats succumbed topressure and meekly compliedwith all illegal orders and causedendless misery to common people.

Democracy was restored after thedefeat of the Congress Party in theMarch, 1977 Lok Sabha election.The first act of the Janata Partygovernment that succeeded IndiraGandhis dictatorial regime was torestore democracy and remove thefascist amendments made to theConstitution. The cleaning up wasdone via the 44 Amendments andchanges in many other laws thathad been mutilated during theEmergency.

We must remember theEmergency and all the horrorsthat were inflicted in its name, ifwe want to prevent such tyrannyhereafter. This is a story that


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must be told and retold so thatcitizens understand the value ofdemocracy and fundamental rightsand remain eternally vigilant to

safeguard these freedoms. And the

25th of June is a befitting occasionto do that every year.

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State Funded Political Ad Campaigns Or

PSYWAR?

- K G Sureshhe U.S. Department ofDefense definespsychological warfare

(PSYWAR) as. "The planned use ofpropaganda and otherpsychological actions having theprimary purpose of influencing the

opinions, emotions, attitudes, andbehavior of hostile foreign groupsin such a way as to support theachievement of nationalobjectives."

Apart from enemy countries,PSYWAR has also been effectivelyused by despotic, totalitarianregimes and military dictatorshipsin several countries to misleadtheir own people and subvert theirknowledge base, whether it be bythe junta in Pakistan from time totime or the Communist regimes inChina and erstwhile Soviet Union.

PSYWAR has been highlycriticised, particularly, when used

on the domestic front, as it seeksto misuse the tax payers ownmoney to mislead him and projectas true information that arecontrary to facts and ground

realities.

With barely a year to go for theGeneral elections, televisionaudiences and newspaper readersacross India are being bombardedday in and day out withadvertisements tom tomming the

achievements of the UPAGovernment.

With an initial allocation of Rs 180crore, the ad blitz 'Bharat Nirman'has been penned by veteranlyricist and ruling UPA nominatedMP, Javed Akthar and filmed byPradeep Sarkar of Parineeta

fame.

According to reports, thegovernment has spent about Rs 16crore to produce the televisionadvertisements.. The theme song,a jingle titled Meelon hum aagaye, meelon hume jaana hai(We've come a long way, we have a

long way to go)", has been sung bywell-known singers Shaan andSunidhi Chauhan. Composed as45-90 second clips, theadvertisements are being rolled

T

* K G Suresh, Senior Fellow, VIF


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out in three phases.

Recently, a finance ministry panelapproved another Rs. 630 crore in

the 12th Five Year Plan for thecampaign. The Department ofAdvertising and Visual Publicity(DAVP), the Information andBroadcasting Ministrys nodaladvertising agency for variousministries, will get the lions shareof the money for creatingcampaigns at district, state andnational levels.

Notwithstanding sharp criticismfrom the oppositionparties with regardto misuse of publicfunds for politicalpropaganda, theGovernmentmaintains that the

publicity is aimed at ensuring thatthe benefits of central governmentschemes reach the targeted peopleso that they actively participate ingovernment programmes.

The main theme of the campaignis dissemination of informationabout the government schemes,

claimed the proposal put beforethe finance ministrys committee.

Besides, funds have also beenallocated to the Press InformationBureau, which disseminatesinformation related to government

policies and programmes to themedia, to highlight theachievements of the UPAgovernment at the block level.

Indigenously built robots, agrowing network of metro railwaysin big cities, easier access tohigher education, and otherschemes feature in theseprofessionally craftedadvertisements.

However, the inherent political

bias becomes apparent even at acasual glance. For example, in the

case of Delhi, thecredit for thedevelopment of themetro rail is givento the Sheila

Dikshit-ledCongress

government (though the proposalfor the Metro rail was mooted bythe BJP Government in Delhi ledby Madan Lal Khurana (who alsoacquired the land and set up theDelhi Metro Rail Corporation),sanctioned by the Deve Gowda-ledGovernment and the first trial runwas inaugurated by then Prime

Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee ofNDA).

Interestingly, in the case ofBangalore and Chennai, theBharat Nirman advertisement

The main theme of thecampaign is dissemination ofinformation about thegovernment schemes, claimedthe proposal put before thefinance ministrys committee.


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gives credit to the UPAgovernment at the Centre.

Apart from Opposition parties,

even civil society organisationsand NGOs have expressed theirreservations about some of theclaims made in theseadvertisements.

For instance, Jeevika (JeetaVimukti Karnataka), an NGOwhich advocates the cause ofbonded labourers in the State of

Karnataka, has termed asshocking, ridiculous andmisleading the claims of BharatNirman on the exploitative bondedlabour system through itsadvertisement in the print mediaunder the title Thanks toMGNREGA, no bonded labouranymore.

It seems the authorities of BharatNirman, a programme for ruralinfrastructure development beingimplemented by the Uniongovernment, are not aware of thefacts or of how farm labourershave been converted into bondedlabourers in different States,

media reports quoted Kiran KamalPrasad, State coordinator ofJeevika, as having stated.

He said the claims of BharatNirman that the job scheme hadbecome an instrument of major

social change made no meaning tothese bonded labourers in theregion.

The NGO described the claims onsocial change as a joke on thehapless bonded labourers ofKarnataka.

Similarly, critics are pointing outthat while making a broadgeneralisation about the youth,Congress leaders often tend toforget that it was the youth which

formed core of the Anna Hazarecampaign for the Lokpal, and thespontaneous protests at IndiaGate in the aftermath of Delhigangrape case.

The campaign has also sparked offspeculations as to why theCongress would initiate the

campaign a year ahead of electionsand whether the polls are actuallycloser. Incidentally, half of themoney allocated for the campaignwould be spent till March 2014,around the time the model code ofconduct would come into force, asthe current Lok Sabhas termexpires on May 31, 2014.

Smart tag lines and catchy slogansof political parties have oftencaptured the imagination of thepeople, whether it be Jai JawanJai Kisan of the Congress in the1965 polls, Indira Gandhis


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Congress Lao, Garibi Hataoslogan in 1971, Janata PartsIndira Hatao, Desh Bachao in1977, Congress partys Jab Tak

Suraj Chand Rahega, Indira TeraNaam Rahega in 1984, RajaNahin Fakir Hain, Desh KiTaqdeer Hain for V P Singh in1989, BJPs Mandir WahinBanayenge in 1989 and AbkiBari Atal Bihari in 1996, UPAsCongress ka Haath, Aam AadmiKa Saath, RJDs Jab Tak Rahega

Samose mein Aaalu, Tab TakRahega Bihar mein Lalu in 2000,NDAs Pandrah Saal, Bura Haalin Bihar in 2005 orBahujan SamajPartys socialengineering slogan,"Haathi nahiganesh hai,

Brahma Vishnu Mahesh hai" inthe 2007 Uttar Pradesh Assemblyelections.

But there have been exceptions aswell. In the 2007 Uttar Pradesh

Assembly polls, people outrightlyrejected the ruling SamajwadiParty's advertisement featuringBollywood icon Amitabh Bachchanmouthing the ironical words, "UPmei dum hai kyunki jurm yahankum hai", when crime andlawlessness had become the hallmark of the state. The Mulayam

Singh Yadav-led party wasdecisively routed.

Almost a decade back came one of

the most disastrous of suchcampaigns - NDA's Rs 100 crore'India Shining' campaign. Creatinghype was a different thing but ifthe creator himself startsbelieving in it, then the results areobvious. The super confident BJPcadres did not even bother todistribute voter slips at the boothlevel and thereby offeredunexpected victory to the Congressparty on a platter.

Party veteran L KAdvani himselfacknowledged laterthat the IndiaShining slogan was

"inappropriate" for an election

campaign. The advertisements,many felt, just did not take intoaccount the social and economicrealities and projected an utopianimage of the country which justdid not exist.

It is but natural that ominouscomparisons are sought to be

made between the two campaigns.

As was the case during the NDAregime, the Bharat Nirmancampaign is being funded by thegovernment, and not by the ruling

Creating hype was a differentthing but if the creator himselfstarts believing in it, then theresults are obvious.


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coalition, at the tax payer'sexpense.

India Shining was touted as a

marketing slogan aimed at hard-selling the optimism of aneconomy on the upswing, BharatNirman is being projected as anattempt to restore the feel goodfactor of the 9% growth story. Ifthe NDA campaign, mastermindedby key strategist late PramodMahajan, had hired a leading adagency Grey Worldwide to designits campaign, the UPA has gonefor big names from the Hindi filmindustry such as Javed Akhtar.

Notwithstanding the self-righteous assertions to thecontrary by the ruling coalition, acloser look at both the adcampaigns reveals the similarity

in theme and content, whether itbe about the economic upsurge,price stability, free education,expansion in roads, telecom andother infrastructure et al. The onlyexception is the UPAs ads onsocial conhesion, a packaging of itssecular card.The timings of the two campaigns

too have great similarities. Whilelaunching the India Shiningcampaign much ahead of the duedates for the Lok Sabha polls,NDA leaders maintained that itwas primarily targeted to attract

foreign investments.Subsequently, buoyed by thevictories in some Assemblyelections, the leadership advanced

the polls by six months and asthey say, the rest is history.

Ironically, during the IndiaShining campaign, Congress partyand other critics of the NDA hadlambasted the VajpayeeGovernment for a totally wastefulexpenditure which could havebeen spent on developmentalworks.

Forget India Shining, ahead ofthe 1996 Lok Sabha polls, the verysame Congress party under theleadership of P V Narasimha Raohad launched a video campaign,Congress sarkar ka yeh uphaar,paanch varshon ka sthir sarkaar

directed by none other than notedfilm maker Mani Ratnam.

Scores of such videos highlightingthe partys concern for the poorand the underprivileged weretelecast not only on the thenpredominant Doordarshan butalso some private channels and

cable networks which were still ata nascent stage.The outcome, 140 Parliamentseats, was perhaps the lowest tallyin the partys history till then.


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Refusing to learn from the past,the UPA Government is hopingthat the people would get carriedaway by these feel good

advertisements and forget aboutthe endless instances ofcorruption, price rise, and nationalsecurity concerns.

Undoubtedly, communicationplays a key role in elections. It isimportant for political parties toconvey to the people theirachievements and their promises,about what theystand for. Asizeable section ofthe Indianpopulation may beilliterate but theyhave proved timeand again that theyare not politicallynaive. Catchyslogans would have to benecessarily accompanied by visiblechanges at the ground level. Publicperception is built not bytelevision bytes or advertisementcampaigns but by real experiencesthey encounter at the marketplace, the shops and the streetsand in their dealings with theGovernment machinery at thegrass root level.

Thanks to a free and independentmedia and a political aware

citizenry, such psychologicalwarfare based on half truths andmisleading information haveneither succeeded nor likely to

succeed in the days to come.

Political messages cannot bepackaged like soaps and toothpastes nor can public relations oradvertisement professionalsreplace the booth levelcommunication between the voterand his or her representative.Other democracies including the

United States havealso witnessed

massiveadvertisement

campaigns ahead ofelections but thepolitical partiespaid for them andnot theGovernments.

Writing in the BloombergBusinessweek, Larry Popelka ,founder and chief executive officerof GameChanger, an innovationconsulting firm, says, the problemis that in business and in politics,oversize ad budgets rarely work.

In many cases, they actually havea negative effect, as they distractmarketing teams from their realmission, which is to find creativeand relevant ways to communicatetheir products benefits.

Political messages cannot be

packaged like soaps and tooth

pastes nor can public relations

or advertisement professionals

replace the booth level

communication between the

voter and his or her

representative.


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Moreover, it has been establishedworld wide that Brands thatintrude too much on peoples timewith messages they dont care

about are punished by the viewersand readers. A study by formerWharton School Professor Russell

Ackoff showed that Anheuse

vivek issues n options july 2013

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