visualization techniques useful for planning - ensley township-

Visualization Techniques Useful For Planning

- Ensley Township-

Visualization Techniques - Ensley Township

Project Funded by the Fremont Area Community Foundation

Project Goal:

To integrate existing geographic information into cohesive and useful land use decision-making tools for practical application by local units of government


ArcGIS – ESRI, Inc Scenario 360 / CommunityViz – Orton Family Foundation,

Placeways Impervious Surface Analysis Tool (ISAT) – NOAA L –THIA (Long Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment) – Purdue

University Community Build-Out – Center of Rural Studies, Vermont Population Allocation Model – AWRI What if? – Community Analysis and Planning Systems

(University of Akron Ohio) SLUETH (Land Transformation Model) – University of Santa

Barbara


ArcGIS – ESRI, IncArcGIS – ESRI, Inc Scenario 360 / CommunityViz – Orton Family Foundation,

Placeways Impervious Surface Analysis Tool (ISAT) – NOAA L –THIA (Long Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment) – Purdue

University Community Build-Out – Center of Rural Studies, Vermont Population Allocation Model – AWRI What if? – Community Analysis and Planning Systems What if? – Community Analysis and Planning Systems

(University of Akron Ohio)(University of Akron Ohio) SLUETH (Land Transformation Model) – University of Santa SLUETH (Land Transformation Model) – University of Santa

BarbaraBarbara

Population Allocation Model

Visualization Techniques - Ensley Township Population Allocation Model

Population Growth Potential Land Availability Index Land Desirability Index


Population Growth Potential Land Availability IndexLand Availability Index Land Desirability IndexLand Desirability Index

Population Change

Year Population

1960 937

1970 1,152

1980 1,461

1990 1,984

2000 2,496

Source: US Census Bureau

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Historical Population of Ensley Township

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1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000

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2010 2020 2030 2040

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Population Projections Using Mean Annual Growth Rate from 1990-2000 (2.58 percent)

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Population Projections Using Mean Annual Growth Rate from 1960-2000 (4.16 percent)


Population Growth PotentialPopulation Growth Potential Land Availability Index Land Desirability IndexLand Desirability Index

Land Cover Change 1978/1998

Land Cover Type 1978 (Acres) 1998 (Acres)

Urban 420 1621

Agricultural 12534 11092

Open Field 1785 1302

Forest 7881 8568

Wetland 381 389

Water 214 241

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Urban Agricultural Open Field Forest Wetland Water

Land Cover

Acr

eage 1978

1998

Land Cover Change 1978/1998

0100200300400500600700800900

1000110012001300

Residential Commercial Transportation Extractive

Land Use

Acr

eage 1978

1998

Comparison of Urban Land Uses-1978/1998

Urban Sprawl Index for Selected Townships

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Ensley Ashland Dayton Croton Muskegon

Township

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Note: An area is considered to be "sprawling" when the rate of land consumption exceeds the rate of population growth. This Urban Sprawl Index compares the relative amount of change in acreage used for development to the relativeamount of change in population. The higher the index value the greater the "sprawl" in the Township. A value of1 or less indicates no sprawl has occurred.

Land Available for Development based on 1998 Land Cover Analysis

•Agricultural-10,049 acres

•Open Field-1,178 acres

•Forest-8,177 acres

•Total Area Available for Development- 19,404 acres

Land Area Required for ProjectedResidential Growth

Mean Annual Population Growth Rate: 4.16Assumed Population Density (people/acre): 1.91

DecadeExpected

Population Increase

Land Area Required (Acres)

2000-2010 1,038 521.19

2010-2020 1,470 738.11

2020-2030 2,082 1,045.4

2030-2040 2,947 1,479.73

Total 7,537 3,784.43

Projected Residential Growth in Acres

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1978 1998 2010 2020 2030 2040

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Population Growth PotentialPopulation Growth Potential Land Availability IndexLand Availability Index Land Desirability Index


Land Desirability Index – Factor Maps

– Distance to roads– Distance to other residential land use– Distance to water– Degree of slope– Soil suitability for septic systems– Distance to forests


Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

– Pairwise comparison of all factors– Statistical assessment based on 9-point

continuous scale– If you think proximity to roads is more important

than septic suitability, how much more important is it?

Projected Residential Growth 2000-2010

Land Area Required for ProjectedResidential Growth


DecadeExpected

Population Increase

Land Area Required (Acres)

2000-2010 1,038 521.19

2010-2020 1,470 738.11

2020-2030 2,082 1,045.4

2030-2040 2,947 1,479.73

Total 7,537 3,784.43

Land Lost to Projected Residential Growth 2010/2040 (in acres)

2010 2020 2030 2040 Total

Agricultural 238 386 619 816 2059

Open Field 53 78 100 168 399

Forest 230 278 333 500 1341


•Projections calculated using a population growth rate of 4.16(the mean annual growth rate from 1960-2000) and assumes a population density (people/acre) of 1.91 •Land area required for projected population growth by 2040is equivalent to almost 3700 football fields

•Would occupy approximately 16.5% of Ensley Township’s total land area and 18% of total land area available fordevelopment


Community Build-Out Analysis

Community Build-Out Analysis Version 2.0

University of Vermont – Center for Rural Studies

Addison County Regional Planning CommissionLewis Creek Association

C.L. Davis Consulting Associates, LTD

Community Build-Out Analysis Version 2.0

• Designed to help communities project future consequences of their zoning ordinances

• Allows the review of alternatives and perhaps can lead to better methods of meeting community goals and objectives

• Basic acreage based build-out where zoning district acreage is tabulated by parcel to determine development density

Model Requirements

• The model runs as an extension program to ArcView GIS • At a minimum you need….

1. Zoning Districts and minimum lot size standards2. Parcel ownership3. Location of existing building structure

Single-family residentialFarmsteadConfined Feeding OperationIndustrial Operation

Also, can consider road frontage specifications and road right-of-way locations along with lot size standards.

Additional Model Data Needs

To build development scenarios you need to identify constraints to development…

Which can include natural features such as these….1. Waterbodies2. Steep Slopes3. Wetlands4. Lowland Forests



Which can include other features such as these….1. State owned lands2. Township owned lands (cemeteries, parks, natural areas

etc.)3. Existing commercial sites (golf courses etc.)4. Large holdings of private lands (assuming they are not

available for large scale development) 5. Existing farmstead and farm operations like confined

feeding (assuming they will stay farmland)



Which can include valuable important natural resource features such as…

1. Prime farmland soils2. Groundwater recharge areas3. Stream Buffers

• Topography – steep slopes• Hydrography – lakes, ponds, rivers,

creeks• Natural Lands – wetlands, forests,

openfields• Working Lands – agricultural lands,

forest lands, mineral resources• Groundwater recharge areas• Parcel boundaries• Prime farmland soils• State and Township lands• Lands that support built infrastructure

GIS Data Layers

Constraints to Development

Scenario #1

Zoningas is withno constraints

Scenario #2

Zoningas is withundevelopableland constraints

Scenario #3

Zoningas is withundevelopableland andimportantnatural resourcefeaturesconstraints

Model Results - Tabular

Existing Units

Max Dev Units Possible

Developable Acres

Units lost due to Constraints

Acres of No Development

Scenario 1 933 21800 21902 0 0

Scenario 2 873 19731 20159 2024 1818

Scenario 3 873 10289 10633 11263 11495

Additional Scenarios

1. Add new zoning districts and minimum lot size requirements

2. Add additional natural resource features that can reduce development potential

3. Instead of no development areas use density reduction requirements

L-THIA Analysis

Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment L-THIA

www.ecn.purdue.edu/runoff

L-THIA – An analytical modeling tool for planners, developers and natural resource managers which provides estimates of changes in runoff, recharge and non-point source pollution for a geographic area resulting frompast, current and projected land use changes.


• Land Use and Cover • Soils (Hydrologic Soil Group)• Precipitation Data (long-term climate)

Data Inputs - (ArcView shapefiles):


Data Outputs - (Arc/ Info Grid files):

• SCS Curve Number (Composite derived from Land Use and Soil type)

• Runoff depth and Runoff volumes

• Non-point source pollution estimates of Total N,TKN-N, NO3-NO2,Total and Dissolved P, Suspended and Dissolved Solids, Total Metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn), BOD and COD.

L-THIA Data Inputs: Land Use and Cover

Ensley Township

1978


Ensley Township

1998


Ensley Township

2040(Projected

fromPAM)

L-THIA Data Inputs: Hydrologic Soil Groups

L-THIA Data Inputs: Precipitation Data

60 Years of Daily Surface Rainfall Data National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

L-THIA Data Outputs: Curve Number Values -2040

The higherthe CN scorethe moreimpervious the surface,the greaterthe runoff potential

L-THIA Data Outputs: Runoff Depths (inches/grid cell) -1978

Runoff Depthscan be calculatedas a SingleStorm Event or as an AverageAnnual usingcomposite CN.

L-THIA Data Outputs: Runoff Volumes (m3/grid cell) -1998

L-THIA Outputs: Non-Point Source (NPS) Pollutant Loadings - 2040

L-THIA Outputs: Non-Point Source (NPS) Pollutant Loadings - 2040

• Total Nitrogen• Total Kjeldahl Nitrogen• Nitrate/Nitrite• Total Phosphorus• Dissolved Phosphorus• Suspended Solids• Dissolved Solids• Total Lead• Total Copper• Total Zinc• Total Cadmium• Total Chromium• Total Nickel• BOD• COD

*(kg/grid cell)

Impervious Surface Analysis Tool (ISAT)

NOAA Coastal Services Center

Using Imperviousness as a Water Quality Indicator

Research has shown that the amount of imperviousness can estimate current and future quality of subwatersheds. Any percentage of

imperviousness can make a subwatershed sensitive, but a threshold at about 10% impervious cover begins to impact the system.

*Information based on research done by the Center for Watershed Protection

Ensley Township 1978 Percent Imperviousness

SiteBuilder 3DMultiGen Paradigm

1998 Image Mosaic draped over a DEM to create a 3D base terrain of Ensley Township

Ortho Image and DEM overlaid to create Base Terrain

Other Layers are added such as trees, roads, rivers, etc.

Existing residential buildings are added to the 3D View

120thC

ypress Ave

Ensley Center

Ensley Township Hall

120thCypress A

ve

Ensley Center


120th


visualization techniques useful for planning - ensley township-

Documents

rate of population growth

mean annual growth rate

land available

rate of land consumption

projected residential

community analysis

urban sprawl index

comparison of urban