Vision 2050

Central Institute of Agricultural Engineering

Nabi Bagh, Berasia Road, Bhopal - 462 038

Tel: 0755-2737191, 2521000, 2521001 Fax: 0755-2734016 e-mail: director@ciae.res.in

Website: www.ciae.nic.in

jk/kk eksgu flag Radha Mohan Singh

lR;eso t;rs

Ñf"k ea=h

Hkkjr ljdkj

MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

Dated the ______

MESSAGE

The scientific and technological inputs have been major drivers of growth and development in agriculture and allied sectors that have enabled us to achieve self-reliant food security with a reasonable degree of resilience even in times of natural calamities, in recent years. In the present times, agricultural development is faced with several challenges relating to state of natural resources, climate change, fragmentation and diversion of agricultural land to non- agricultural uses, factor productivity, global trade and IPR regime. Some of these developments are taking place at much faster pace than ever before. In order to address these changes impacting agriculture and to remain globally competent, it is essential that our R&D institutions are able to foresee the challenges and formulate prioritised research programmes so that our agriculture is not constrained for want of technological interventions.

It is a pleasure to see that Central Institute of Agricultural Engineering (CIAE), Bhopal, a constituent institution of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (lCAR) has prepared Vision 2050 document. The document embodies a pragmatic assessment of the agricultural mechanization needs, water and energy demand, reduction of post-harvest losses, value addition to produce and development of supporting industry and allied sector by the year 2050. Taking due cognizance of the rapidly evolving national and international agriculture, the institute, has drawn up its Strategic Framework, clearly identifying Goals and Approaches.

I wish CIAE all success in realisation of the Vision-2050.

(Radha Mohan Singh)

MkW- latho dqekj

cky;ku Dr. Sanjeev Kumar Balyan

lR;eso t;rs

Ñf"k jkT; ea=h

Hkkjr ljdkj

MINISTER OF STATE FOR AGRICULTURE

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

Dated the ______

MESSAGE

Agriculture is the life line of the Indian society as well as the economy. Science has played a

vital role in improving agricultural production in past few decades though at a cost of

environment. The new era is going to be of technology that is sustainable, affordable, and

human and environment friendly. Productivity and profitability of agriculture has been

standing still for quite some time now. Efforts for modernization of agriculture are now

required for not only making the agriculture profitable but also for increasing input use

efficiency, reducing drudgery in the agricultural operations and making the work of

agricultural labour respectable in the modern context.

Engineering interventions are going to be vital for growth of all sectors of agriculture in

India including animal husbandry, fisheries, horticulture, natural resource management etc.

Be it for increasing productivity of resources and labour, for production of energy from

alternate sources, for feeding extra mouths or earning foreign currency, machines and

engineering technology would play a crucial role.

Efforts for subsistence of the current population are not sufficient and we need to look for

needs and comfort of the future generations too. In order to do so, it is mandatory that we

plan ahead of time for the actions to be taken at different markers of the impending epochs.

It is with this view, that ICAR has prudently undertaken an exercise to plan for 2050 and

Central Institute of Agricultural Engineering, Bhopal has put on efforts to develop a

document ‘Vision-2050’ giving emphasis to machines and engineering technology in

agriculture. I am happy that the document has suitably addressed the issue of

mechanization of Indian agriculture and has given sufficient prominence for development of

technologies with ‘Make in India’ tag.

My best wishes are with CIAE for attainment of the goals set for 2050.

(Sanjeev Kumar Balyan)

FOREWORD

The Indian Council of Agricultural Research, since inception in the year 1929, is spearheading science and technology led development in agriculture in the country. This is being accomplished through agricultural research, higher education and frontline extension undertaken by a network of research institutes, agricultural universities and Krishi Vigyan Kendras. Besides developing and disseminating new technologies, ICAR has also been developing competent human resources to address the present and future requirements of agriculture in the country. Committed and dedicated efforts of ICAR have led to appreciable enhancement in production and productivity of different crops and commodities. This has enabled the country to become self-sufficient in food and emerge as a net food exporter. However, agriculture is now facing several challenges that are expected to become even more diverse and stiffer. Natural resources (both physical and biological) are deteriorating and getting depleted; risks associated with climate change are rising, new forms of biotic and abiotic stress are emerging, production is becoming more energy intensive, and biosafety concerns are growing. Intellectual property rights and trade regulations impacting technology acquisition and transfer, declining preference for farm work, shrinking farm size and changes in dietary preferences are formidable challenges.

These challenges call for a paradigm shift in our research focus to harness the potential of modern science, innovations in technology generation and delivery, and enabling policy and investment support. Acute labour shortage and the rising cost of agricultural production in India have brought engineering inputs to agriculture in spotlight. Engineering in agriculture pervades all through the agricultural production and post-production value chain. In general terms it plays a vital role in rural economic system and food chain. Some of the critical areas as agricultural mechanization, post-harvest technology and value addition, water and energy management in agriculture, secondary agriculture, nanotechnology, agri-incubators and technology dissemination need to be given priority. Multi-disciplinary and multi-institutional research will be of paramount importance, given the fact that technology generation is increasingly getting knowledge and capital intensive.

I am happy to note that the Vision-2050 document of Central Institute of Agricultural Engineering, Bhopal has been prepared, based on the assessment of present situation, trends in various factors and changes in operating environment around agriculture to visualize the agricultural scenario about 40 years hence and chalk out a driven research agenda for science-led development of agriculture for food, nutrition, livelihood and environmental security, with a human touch.

I am sure that the ‘Vision-2050’ would be valuable in guiding our efforts in agricultural R&D to provide food and nutritional security to billion plus population of the country for all times to come.

Dated the ___________ (S. Ayyappan)

New Delhi

PREFACE

Agriculture would remain important in the livelihood of a considerable section of India's population for several decades to come even with a reducing share in the country's GDP. Indian agriculture is beset with several challenges. Drudgery, natural uncertainties, low productivities, low profitability, climate change, and low professional esteem are all driving the present day youth away from agriculture. Technology, skills and the policies must lift the weakest farm holder above the national per capita income threshold. It is in this context that engineering inputs to agriculture in India have begun to be appreciated. Farm mechanization, land and water management engineering, energy management in agriculture, protected agriculture, post-harvest loss minimization and value addition in production catchments and knowledge empowerment through ICT have all been found essential individually as well as collectively for the growth of Indian agriculture and rural sector. The 12th five year plan of India is expected to address these concerns to a great extent.

Tomorrow's agriculture would not be limited to only food, feed, fibre, and fuel. It would also cater to a large number of other industrial raw materials. It would also not be limited to cultivable lands and hospitable habitats. Technology would enable agriculture to spread its wings to even inhospitable terrestrial habitats in addition to oceans and space. Tomorrow's agriculture would be more efficient and less polluting with societies incentivizing agriculture. Environmental issues including regulatory regime would become mandatory for the implementation of any technical intervention. Greater emphasis would be required on quality and safety all along the production to digestion value chain.

Agricultural engineering in the coming decades is poised for a fundamental change in the scope of its agenda. If the evolution of agricultural engineering in the west is any indication, agricultural engineering in India would in all likelihood embrace biological, environmental, food and nutrition (FABEN) engineering for comprehensive and holistic solutions. Tomorrow's agricultural engineers would not only be involved in problem-solving but would be playing important role in policy formulation and social engineering due to their wider comprehension.

It is in this context that the roles and programmes for agricultural engineering have been envisaged for 2050. The task of envisioning the life on the Earth in 2050 is restricted by our flight of imagination. Therefore, younger colleagues who would still be around in 30s and 40s have played major role in preparing this vision with due interactions with seniors, subject matter division in the ICAR and peers. Wherever possible, intuitive extrapolations have been carried out to build the scenarios for 2050. There is an optimism that agriculture as an enterprise would be managed by younger and educated mass in future. Based on this reasoning, certain actions have been identified so as to facilitate the coming generations of agricultural engineers to realize the goals and targets for the year 2050. What happens between now and the year 2050 in this world is full of uncertainties. Therefore, this vision would be worth the effort anticipating that it remains relevant in some measure as the world marches to the year 2050.

Dated the Dec 31, 2014 (KK Singh)

Bhopal Director, Central Institute of Agricultural Engineering

Content

Message

Foreword

Preface

CONTEXT

CHALLENGES

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

OPPORTUNITIES & STRENGTHS

GOALS/ TARGETS

WAY FORWARD

Infrastructure

Thrust for cutting edge research

Institutionalization of partnership with academia/

industries/ private partners

Changes in policies and regulations

Human capital in agricultural engineering

References

Context

Indian agriculture today is at cross roads; the country produces enough and still about 30% of the population does not have access to adequate food. With increasing cost of inputs and inadequate rural infrastructure, agricultural profitability is going down. Drudgery, uncertainty, low profitability, and low professional esteem are contributing to the flight of rural youth from agriculture to non-agricultural pursuits. Under these conditions Indian agriculture is sure to undergo a transformation. Growth of Indian economy with higher growth rates in services and manufacturing sectors will also impact the future of Indian agriculture. How would the scenario of agricultural development in the country unfold in the coming decades? How would the agriculture of 2050 be different from the agriculture today?

At the end of 2014, India's population is estimated at 1.26 billion and it is world's third largest economy (by purchasing power parity) with GDP of US $7.28 trillion. In the year 2050, India's population is likely to be 1.6 billion and the GDP would be US $ 85.9 trillion (PPP). Today, about 52% of the Indian work force is in agriculture for its livelihood and by 2050, this would reduce to about 25%. The contribution of agriculture and allied sectors in national GDP is about 13% at present. As the Indian economy size grows, and the contribution of non-agricultural sectors increases at a faster rate, the contribution of agriculture may come down to less than 5% by 2050.

Indian agriculture during the past six decades has gone through various stages of modernization. Production has increased many-folds to sustain the increasing population through improved input supply system. High yielding varieties, fertilizers, agro-chemicals and irrigation were the forerunners in the input supply management system. Engineering interventions in agriculture have become essential for reducing the cost of production and drudgery while improving the livelihood opportunities and sustainability of income and environment through appropriate mechanization, post-production technologies and energy management. Farm mechanization is moving towards a level of maturity pushing the annual sales of machinery to over Rs. 80,000 crore. In the last six decades India's energy use and installed electricity capacity have increased 16 and 84 folds, respectively (Garg, 2012). Installed capacity of renewable power was reported to be 10.90% (18.15GW) in 2010. The installed capacity of electrical power in India would be 762 GW in 2030 and 1400 GW in 2050. The renewable fractions (renewable energy including wind power, small hydro power, bio-power and solar power) would be 12.9% (98 GW) by 2030 and 12.1% (169) GW by 2050.

The major fields, where the CIAE has made pioneering efforts during the past three decades and made significant dents, are:

Design, development, testing and commercialization of farm equipment for different crops, farm sizes and agro-climatic conditions; processing technologies for different crops and scale of operation; solar and bio-energy based gadgets, rainwater harvesting and on-farm water management practices.

Incorporating man-machine-environment concept including gender issues in development of agricultural machines leading to increased efficiency, human comfort and safety in agricultural operations.

Development of manufacturing technology and large scale prototype production to make quality machines available for demonstration and feedback for refinement.

Application of computers in design, simulation, analysis and presentation of data for increased efficacy of research in the field of agriculture in general and agricultural engineering in particular.

In India more work-force is involved in agriculture, disproportionate to its contribution in country's GDP. For most of the developed nations, the majority of work force is involved in the sector that contributes more to that country's GDP (CIA World Fact Book, 2006). This mismatch in Indian scenario is likely to change with time. With improvement in infrastructure (roads, communication, education etc.), inclination of rural work force has shifted to more remunerative job/ work opportunities. This has led to diminishing work force in agricultural sector. This trend is likely to continue till wages offered in agricultural sector are comparable to other sectors. In such a case, the potential of agricultural sector to employ work force would be far less than today. Agriculture service industry has already started providing solutions/ services to stakeholder and its scope is expected to widen in coming times. Such scenario would lead to mechanization of majority of agricultural operations and hence potential would exist for skilled or semi-skilled farm workers only.

Agricultural modernization during the next four decades is needed to be visualized in synchronization with changes taking place in other disciplines of science and engineering. Indian work force in 2050 would be largely young which would be more receptive to modernization options. Therefore, it appears that there would be transformation of present day agriculture into more farmer-friendly, profitable, and sustainable profession.

Earlier, the institute documented 'Vision 2025' and 'Vision 2030' to set short, medium and long term goals for engineering inputs to Indian agriculture. Majority of the short term programmes, envisioned in the 'Vision-2025' document of the institute, have been realized. The Vision 2025 was visualized to address the production and post-production operations through the intensified interventions of tools, machinery and processes with some precision. Whereas, in vision 2030, concerns for climate change, energy availability and profitability were given importance. However, realizing that research efforts require considerable time and efforts a longer term vision is needed so as to allocate adequate resources for 'futuristic', 'strategic' and 'anticipatory' challenges leading to 'ever green revolution'. Vision 2050 is an attempt to perceive the socio- economic and technological scenarios in order to prepare a frame work for engineering inputs in agriculture in the next four decades.

Challenges

India could be the World's largest economy by 2050 and by this time the country would have 1.6 billion people. Almost 800 million or 50% of the estimated population would live in urbanized territories. The contribution of agriculture in national GDP would come down to about 3 % and the work force in agriculture (part time and full time) would be about 25%, many of these agricultural workers would have additional non- agricultural source of income to supplement their needs. Keeping the size of Indian economy in 2050 to be about US $ 86 trillion, agriculture's share would be about US $ 2.9 trillion if agricultural growth rate over the next 38 years is maintained at about 4%.

In this context some of general challenges likely to affect the future growth rate of Indian agriculture are: the population growth rate, land fragmentation/ consolidation, land degradation and pollution due to inappropriate resource management / soil health, technological limits, high frequency of extreme weather events, incidence of devastating crop and animal diseases, etc. Some of the specific challenges in context of agricultural mechanization in India and third world are:

Mechanization of small farms

The average farm size in India is small (1.16 ha) as compared to the European Union (14 ha) and the United States (170 ha). Therefore, there will be little mechanization unless machines appropriate for small holdings are made available. Due to small size of land holdings, it is difficult for the farmers to own machinery. As a result, the benefits of mechanization are enjoyed by only a section of the farmers who have large farm holdings. Mechanizing small and non-contiguous group of small farms is against ‘economies of scale’ especially for operations like land preparation and harvesting. With continued shrinkage in average farm size, more farms will fall into the adverse category thereby making individual ownership of agricultural machinery progressively more uneconomical. Hence a challenge would lie in development and ensuring availability of quality machines suitable for operating on small farms.

The increased use of heavy equipment and power sources will also increase the area with sub soil compaction. Other problems arising due to soil compaction, like water logging, poor infiltration of water, reduced aquifer recharge rates, further deteriorate the soil health, ultimately resulting in reduced crop productivity.

Techno-economic feasibility of specialty agriculture such as vertical farming, hydroponics, soilless agriculture, ocean farming, cultivation in problematic soils

Enhancing input use efficiency

The green revolution witnessed in the 1960's catapulted the country from a "begging bowl to the breadbasket". We have witnessed the growth of food grains production from 51 million tonnes in the fifties to 263 million tonnes by the year 2013-14, helping us achieve self-sufficiency and avoiding food shortages. It is estimated that indiscriminate use of fertilisers and excessive irrigation have resulted in 12 million ha of land becoming water logged and 14 million ha rendered saline. A problem of soil erosion due to water is seen on 141 million ha and due to wind on 11.5 million ha. There is a need to transform our green revolution into an evergreen revolution which will be triggered by farming systems approach that can help produce more from the available land, water and man power resources. The current whole-field management approaches ignore variability in soil-related characteristics and seek to apply crop production inputs in a uniform manner. With such an approach, the likelihood of over-application and/or under-application of inputs in a single field cannot be avoided which results into higher cost of operation as well. Development of indigenous and affordable systems and devices for precise application of inputs is a challenge.

Improvement in water productivity

The share of irrigation water would come down due to the increasing competition from non- agricultural sectors and irrigation will suffer water scarcity. Water demand for irrigation would increase to feed an additional 2 billion people by 2050. Lift irrigation would be limited by the conventional energy availability. At the same time enhanced pumping could be resulted using non-conventional energy sources. The challenge lies in achieving and maintaining higher water productivity in the changing scenario on sustainable basis.

Enhancing available energy use and reducing energy intensity

Efficient utilisation and management of commercial energy and substitution with renewable energy sources.

Technologies/redesign machines for alternate energy sources such as bio-diesel, fuel cells, solar chips, multi-fuel options and portable energy sources for stationary and mobile operations to reduce carbon footprint.

Reducing post-harvest losses/ Ensuring nutritional security

Huge wastage across the supply chain leads to lower level of processing and hence low value addition. On an average, post-harvest losses of the tune of 4 to 6% in durables and 12 to 15 per cent in case of fruits and vegetables have been documented. The challenge is in handling of fresh produce after harvest with emphasis on reducing losses, value addition, maintaining eating quality and marketing.

Food safety will be the major concern of the produce industry and the regulatory agencies. Maintenance and measurement of quality, especially flavor and nutritional content, and ensuring safety (avoiding chemical and microbial contamination) is a challenge and must be the focus of future research and extension activities.

Demand for new food (organic foods, nutra-ceuticals, health foods, age awareness and portion control products)

There is a need of economically viable technology that can turn this 'waste' into 'worth'.

Economic focus shifting from agriculture to other sectors

Diminishing agriculture workforce (Table 1) is a reality.

The younger rural work force is getting more inclined towards non - agricultural sectors which are more remunerative and also offer an attractive urban life setup. The result is that the average age of workforce engaged in agriculture is increasing. Unless agriculture becomes remunerative young people will not be attracted to it and unless young people manage the agriculture, it will not be profitable. The challenge is to break this paradox.

Table 1: Population Dynamics of Indian Agricultural Workers for 2050

S.

No. Particulars 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050

1 Country’s population 1222 1323 1432 1520 1612

2 Total No. of workers 504 566 641 711 787 3 No. of workers as % of population 41.2 42.8 44.8 46.8 48.8

4 No. of agricultural workers 240 230 222 211 202

5 % of agricultural workers to total workers 47.6 40.6 34.6 29.7 25.7

6 a) No. of male agricultural workers 132 115 100 84 81

b) No. of female agricultural workers 108 115 122 127 121

c) % of females in agril. work force 45 50 55 60 60

Source: AICRP on ESA

Continuously reducing contribution of agriculture to national GDP is worrying.

The challenge for agricultural engineers lies in development of techno-economically viable agricultural service sector that can give substantial employment of rural youth and also attract organized business sector towards agriculture.

Mismatch between technology development and dissemination

Human resource availability in agricultural engineering to be in sync with developments in advanced sciences (nano- technology, bio-technology, etc.)

Operating Environment

A typical farmer in 2050 would be a well informed and tech- savvy professional who would have real time information on natural resources available including weather data to precisely plan the production activities utilizing the modern machinery. He/she would have market intelligence to ensure immediate disposal of the produce, thereby, reducing losses and maximizing returns. A significant portion of production activity whether crops, livestock, or fishery, would be in the form of protected production technology. Road map for agriculture for the next 40 years must be through localised solutions, combining scientific research with traditional knowledge in partnership with farmers and consumers. Agricultural machineries would definitely see a major change in terms of manufacturing materials. Some features of operating environment through 2050 could be:

There would still be other not-so-enabled farmers who would need considerable support for sustaining the farming activity. Although people would own their small farms, they would become a part of some sort of cooperative or corporate plan.

Synchronization with international developments for reducing the gestation period of technology development and dissemination.

Customized solutions in mechanized multi or special purpose field operations.

Advanced manufacturing facilities available with agricultural machines manufacturers

Newer methods like 3-D printing will have great influence on machine prototyping

Availability of lighter yet stronger material for machine design

Demand for environmental friendly materials in fabrication of machines

Availability of in-silico and physical simulation models for assurance of quality and safety.

Changing demography would also see a huge change in food requirements and eating habits. People would turn to healthier and eco-friendly food and other natural products. Organically produced food products/products having least carbon footprint will be preferred over chemically grown food products. In addition to organic produce, a significant portion of population may prefer more eco-friendly manufactured meat instead of livestock derived meat. From a technological point of view the manufacturing of artificial meat is feasible. There could be huge demand of small instruments for quality evaluation and traceability determination of food products.

Programmes like sub-mission on agricultural mechanization would have far bearing positive effect on the agricultural mechanization. This mission will provide assistance for Promotion and Strengthening of Agricultural Mechanization through Training, Testing and Demonstration, Post-Harvest Technology and management; Procurement of selected Agriculture Machinery and Equipment; Establishment of Farm Machinery Banks for Custom Hiring; Establishing Hi-Tech Productive Equipment Centres to Target Low Productive Agricultural Regions and Assistance for increasing farm mechanization. Govt. of India has now launched a credit-linked subsidy scheme for establishment of farm machinery banks and hi-tech high productive equipment hub for custom hiring. Such programmes will make not only promote use of machines but also ensure production of quality machines in large number at various locations across India. This will open-up a channel of agricultural machinery export, which is presently limited to tractor export only. Entrepreneur friendly programmes like ‘make in India’ would attract international manufacturers which in-turn would help creating a healthy competition and good quality standards.

Opportunities & Strengths

Mechanization of majority of farm operations will be influenced by unavailability of human labour, higher targets of food production and economic feasibility of mechanization adoption. The targets of food production will be governed by the population growth of India and the world in broader sense, considering India to be a global supplier of agricultural commodities after fulfilling its own demand. Land consolidation by sale/ lease/ contract etc. would demand mechanization of agricultural operations. Custom hiring of agricultural machinery will be a common scene by 2050, necessitating the research efforts in direction of developing bigger machineries and equipment. Custom hiring services will be offered by corporate sector as a business venture, probably leading the research of ICAR Engineering institutes in providing research and advisory services to such corporates. Implementation of strategies to alleviate as well as prevent further soil compaction would become an obligation on agricultural heavy machinery manufacturer's by 2050, and would not be merely looked upon as a responsibility of farmer and the environmental/governmental agencies. Soil tillage would also be looked upon as a basic input (like seed, water, fertilizer) to be monitored and controlled in precision farming. Agricultural production activities would extend to oceans, high mountains, difficult terrains and even space to overcome the shortage of land for agriculture

in relation to the increasing number of mouths to be fed.

It is anticipated that people's wish for both good health and longevity would lead to demand of nutritious and functional food that promotes their wellbeing, enjoyment, and active life style. Convenient health foods or foods that impart extra value in the form of health benefits would have the highest priority for product development in the food industry.

Some of the vital areas giving opportunities to the profession of agricultural engineering in India are:

Rich biodiversity in the country

Need of innovative small agricultural tools for urban and peri-urban clientele.

There is strong scope of research in manufacturing & ergonomic evaluation of

such tools.

Demand for comfortable and safe working environment

Better living standards – people will be ready to pay for the cost involved in

food quality and safety.

Abundance of solar radiations, fresh water and conditions conducive for

cultivation

Generation and trade of solar based 'green energy’

Access to advanced technology and trade would be better due to better

connectivity and the discipline of agricultural engineering would be better

equipped to take advantage of advances of other disciplines

Trained manpower in advanced technologies

Stronger economy leading to technological leadership

Advanced technology could be disseminated better due to higher educational

level of the stake holders.

High potential for strengthening infrastructure for pre and post-harvest

agriculture

A need to develop sustainable infrastructure for modernization of agriculture gives an opportunity for adopting standard operating procedures. Mechanization/ automation would be an integral part of such standards and therefore, agricultural engineering profession in general and CIAE in particular has an opportunity to play vital role in strengthening the infrastructure.

Goals/ Targets

Increased farm power availability to 4.0 kW/ha (1.84 kW/ha )

Increased mechanization level to 70% (28%)

Increased area under conservation agriculture to 10 million ha for enhance soil

health (4 M ha)

Reduced fatality rate in agriculture to 100/ million workers/y (180/ million

worker/y)

Gender friendly equipment for various farm operations.

Increased area under micro irrigation to 40 M ha (5.0 M ha)

Reduced area under temporary water logged vertisols (~2 M ha) by 50% through

drainage technology

Enhance renewable energy use in agriculture to 5% (1%)

Provide alternative technology for on farm crop residue management (open field

burning of 90 million tonnes)

Enhanced energy use efficiency in production and post-production agriculture

Energy from agriculture – 2000 MW (450 MW current)

Increased direct food use of soybean to 25% of production (10%)

Food uses of coarse cereals and millets.

Primary processing protocols for horticultural produce

Value addition to minor forest produce (Figures in parenthesis are current values)

Way Forward

An attempt to look into future is exciting as well as full of uncertainties at the same time. The deeper we try to probe, the more complex the picture becomes. On the basis of the past and present scenarios, a picture of agriculture in 2050 has been constructed where engineering interventions have been identified. With a view to travel from today till 2050, a pathway has been proposed with a view that CIAE will have to play an overarching role in farm mechanization in the country.

Infrastructure

Both physical and intellectual components of infrastructure need to be created to sustain the programmes in a way that the goal posts for 2050 are achieved. These include the state-of-art laboratories and the specialized human resource. The infrastructure together with efficient operating procedures would create a fertile ground to sustain the growth for the future. The energy conservation and energy efficiency will play an important role in the national energy strategy, and particularly renewable energy will become a key part of the solutions and is likely to play an increasingly important role for augmentation of grid power, providing energy access and reducing consumption of fossil fuels. Agriculture is expected to be more professionally managed commercial venture and would demand modern

infrastructural facilities like transport systems, reliable means of communication and expert systems, besides ample energy. Some of the infrastructural facilities are postulated to be:

Centre of excellence in bio energy

Centre of excellence for precision farming /robotics in agriculture

Agricultural mechanization development centres (AMDCs)

Farm mechanization clearing house

o Expert systems, virtual demonstration

Centre of excellence in pressurized irrigation

Thrust for cutting edge research

In view of the goals and targets set for 2050, a few areas for cutting edge research have been identified in which the efforts must begin now. These efforts would form the foundation for the edifice planned for 2050.

New materials are required for fabrication of machine, structures and resource conservation. Advances in material science would lead to development of hybrid and functional materials based on metals, non-metals and polymersAgricultural engineering research will have to define the functional requirement of a material's interaction with soil/ water/ food/ agro-chemicals/ other environmental factors, individually and in any combination.

Mechatronics for agricultural applications would be more common feature in production and post-production machineries. A multi-disciplinary engineering approach for precision in controls, gender neutral, operator safety, ergonomics, food quality and safety, environmental monitoring, warning and prevention systems would be in demand by tech-savvy and alert farmers.

Bio processing for food, feed and fuel is expected to be a preferred method of processing. Research efforts need to be initiated to find physical and/or biological alternatives to synthetic chemicals. Even if these technologies are not economically feasible right now, their time will come. Indian population depends more on plant based foods; however, plant-based diets are often associated with micronutrient deficits, exacerbated in part by poor micronutrient bioavailability. Increasing bioavailability of nutrients through bio-processing may also result in lower quantitative demand of food than anticipated.

Biosystems modeling, simulation and amelioration will find a vital role in future agriculture due to introduction of superior computing powers, availability of real time reliable data and sensitivity of consumers to the issues of environmental impact of agriculture. The study of bio- systems is going to be an extremely important area in future to determine better ways of living on the Earth. This will also lead to the realization that both at macro and micro levels, we must seek closed-loop biosystems with no residual ill-effect on other biosystems. Agricultural Engineering in future will embrace all bio-systems, environment, food and nutrition (FABEN Engg.) to provide holistic solutions. The word 'waste would become wasteful in the context of life sciences & technology.

Quality and safety of food, agricultural inputs, machinery, energy and all involved factors would be a serious concern in light of increased consumer awareness, environmental and social issues. Quality and safety in all aspects would be treated

as complimentary and not competitive. In light of this, newer method of quality detection, assurance, hazard identification, warning and prevention have to be developed. Sensor (physical, chemical and biological) would play a vital role in this and hence collaborative efforts needs to be concentrated in this area.

Some pin-pointed major programmes and R&D issues, which CIAE will have to address, could be:

Major Programmes and R&D Issues

Precision machines

Adaptation of sensors and robotics in pre and post-harvest agriculture for decision making, control, quality retention and efficiency.

Development of methods and machines for retaining and efficient reuse of water. Sensors based in-situ monitoring and management of soil-water-plant interaction

for enhancing input use efficiencies. Use of nano materials and nano-sensors for improvement of input efficiency and

real-time assessment of crop needs.

Conservation agriculture

Mechanization of controlled climate agriculture. Development/ adaptation of agricultural machines for efficient use of resources,

combating extreme climatic conditions, conserving environment and working in special or difficult terrains.

Variable input applicators based on real-time variability assessment, e.g. application of inputs like major and minor soil nutrients, plant growth regulators, plant protection chemicals etc. using same machine in a single pass.

Development of strategies for water conservation and management of water under deficit/excess conditions

Design of water harvesting structures for different agro-ecological zones and recycling through advanced irrigation systems

Improved artificial ground water recharge techniques Optimization of irrigation and drainage systems design parameters suiting to

changing crop geometry/architecture and problematic soils. Rapid assessment of soil health

Postharvest value chains for millets, soybean, pulses, fruits and vegetables

Pre and post-harvest technology for existing and new crops that are modified through bio-technology.

Sustainable post-harvest technology Bio-polymers from surplus production Eco friendly smart packaging and storage Instantaneous quality evaluation techniques and devices Fortified/ combination analogs of rice, dal, grits etc. Extraction of high value compounds from processing by-products Technology for meeting demand for new food (organic foods, nutraceuticals,

health foods, age awareness and portion control products) Fabricated functional foods (FFF) based on combinations of nutrition, therapeutic

and sensory preferences.

Nano technology in clarification, packaging, storage, disinfestation, preservation, thermal processing etc.

Energy in Agriculture

Organic solar cells, bio sensors and power packs Efficient and feasible energy storage devices (particularly for electricity) will

govern its use for mobile energy demands in agriculture. Redesigning the machines to suit alternative energy sources such as bio-diesel, fuel

cells, solar chips, portable energy sources and multi-fuel options

Partnership with academia/ industries/ private sector

The partnerships among academic, industries, public and private institutions would rise for mutual growth and problem solving in efficient, cost effective and time bound mode. The R & D institution would have more collaboration with industry for problem identification and solving as well as for commercialization of developed technologies. Industry would use the R&D facilities of these institutions and young human resource of academics for solving of the industry problem. Timeliness, Convergence, integration, and cooperation among partners would require newer models of social engineering.

Changes in policies and regulations

The Research organizations would tend to work in the mode of core team of professionals’ while other technical and supporting human resource would be hired coterminous with the contracted assignments. Funding would come from sponsored research, joint research and consultancies. Limited dedicated fund may be with the institute for taking up strategic as well as futuristic research. The provision to involve and assigned tasks through the best possible human resource for solving the specific problem may be available through contract mode. The contracting and credit sharing policies would be harmonized with the best institution anywhere.

On the strength of the R&D carried out at the institute, the core team would work as knowledge partners with public institutions and regulatory authorities towards developing appropriate governance framework. Such initiatives would transcend geo-political boundaries leading to robust science based global policies on agriculture, food, energy and environment sustainability.

Human capital in agricultural engineering

The need and demand of agricultural engineering professionals with super specialization in its different streams would increase and they may function as consultant and service provider with increasing modernization, mechanization and automation. Tangible and virtual facilities for building of human capital to bring about the changes envisaged in this document are extremely eminent. The dream of sustainable agriculture can only be realized with reinforcement of trained manpower and an autocatalytic infrastructure of information dissemination. The endeavour of human capital building would be through formal agricultural engineering education, trainings of extension functionaries, skill development for production, operation, repair and maintenance of machines, training of end users of technology, manufacturers and local artisans. Besides, the effort of providing professional training to all stakeholders would continue.

The institute will also have to arrange for its own human resource development in agricultural sciences in-pace with developments in advanced sciences (nano-technology, bio-technology, computational science, sensing technology etc.)

The concept of business incubation for entrepreneurs, Agri-machinery and Horti business hubs would become prevalent such that an adequately skilled manpower would function as service provider in rural sector would absorb the human capacity spared from agriculture without actually displacing the people. This would also help to decongest urban areas and better sustain national economic growth

Overall, it is envisioned that engineering inputs in agriculture would bring about a change using contemporary technologies for quality human life yet help respect the age old adage of 'Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam' (The Earth is a family).

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