RESEARCH DESIGN Social Environment for Independent Candidates in Chinese Local People’s

Congress Elections

Sookyung Koo12/20/2011

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Contents

Introduction 3

Research Question, Argument, Definition 4

Background 5

Hypothesis, Independent and Dependent Variables 11

Method : Survey 14

Analysis and Expected Answers (example) 18

Reference 20

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Social Environment for Independent Candidates in Chinese Local People’s Congress Elections

Introduction

The emergence and success of independent candidates in the Chinese Local People’s Congress (LPC) elections at district/county level have been a new hope for democratization in China. China has both direct and indirect elections. Direct elections are conducted at district(in urban)/county(in rural), township, and village level and indirect elections are conducted at prefect/municipal, province, and national level. Unlike direct elections for village committees or township-level Congress, the district/county level elections largely affect the central government, political order inside the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and political influence and legitimacy of the CCP. Therefore, promoting transparency and competitiveness of district/county level elections can bring considerable changes for Chinese democratization. However, as long as those elections have a huge influence on democratization, the Party strictly monitors and controls the selection of candidates and all electoral procedures, which means the Party chooses candidates they prefer and supports those candidates to win the elections. In the current political circumstance which is not beneficial to independent candidates, the only way for independent candidates to win the elections within a legal framework is getting more support from more voters. However, voters are also under the Party’s control and thus it is difficult for voters to act individually for independent candidates. Therefore, this research paper focuses on what socio-economic and/or demographic ‘environment’ which voters have ‘naturally’ increases their support for independent candidates. The goal of this research is to show that creating the socio-economic environment friendly to democratization would be more effective and influential to encourage voters to vote for independent candidates, because formidable changes of the overall social environment cannot be stopped even by the Party. It will also provide necessary information for independent candidates’ strategy by comparing the socio-economic status of supporters for them and those who do not support them.

Research Question What socio-economic and/or demographic factors of voters increase their

support for independent candidates in the LPC elections at the district level?

Argument Voters with higher education, access to technology, the entrepreneurial class,

those living in urban areas, those whose legal or human rights have been violated, as well as youth, are more likely to support independent candidates in district level elections.

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Definition “In This Paper” LPC elections: This paper discusses LPC elections at the district level

selecting legislators (delegates) for the LPC. This paper just uses the term, “district,” not distinguishing district and county.

Independent candidates a) have a strong desire to be elected as a delegate (legislator for the LPC), b) mobilize the voters by themselves, c) are not supported by local authorities but voters, d) try to reduce the Communist Party’s control for electoral procedures, e) have motivations for democratic values, and f) whose name is on a final candidate list or on the ballots (write-in candidates).

Voters include a) open supporters of independent candidates and b) those who vote for independent candidates yet cannot openly support them due to political or security concerns.

Background

1. Why does the Communist Party allow direct elections at local administrative divisions?

In case of elections at village level, its influence is limited to local communities—it is not related to the national politics, the central government, or the CCP in Beijing. And the influence is more about local administration through village committee, not about politics. Also, the CCP leaders knew that they are not able to control all around China because of a huge population and different characteristics of each area. Therefore, they accepted autonomy and political reform of local communities for necessity, especially in rural areas. Also, this basic administrative unit (village) has been developed from a clan society and thus they have their own effective system to govern community people. Many communities at village level have even maintained a type of direct democracy. Therefore, transparency of direct elections and independence of local politics at village level is almost entirely guaranteed. The emergence of independent candidates and their victory at village level elections for well-being of a local community have been common.

The district level elections have some different characteristics from elections at village level, which means elections at district level are semi-democratic. Elections at district level directly affect politics within the Communist Party and thus the Party carefully monitors and controls district level elections. However, the CCP still allows the district level elections for the CCP’s political legitimacy. There was a group of political elites, who persistently emphasized the importance of practicing democracy within a higher level of administrative division than a village. Unlike a majority of the Communist Party elites, they claimed that democracy should be practiced more by Chinese people for legitimacy and effectiveness of the Party

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control system. Most of all, they stated that democracy is not incompatible with Mao’s ideology.

2. Why does this paper discuss elections at district level?

As mentioned before, village level elections are the most democratic among three direct elections in China. But at the same time, it is hard to expect that village elections will draw political changes at national level. Village elections are for the creation of village committees for a community’s administration, not for the Chinese parliamentary system. In other words, village committees are not related to People’s Congress and thus the impact of village elections is limited to a small community in rural areas.

Unlike village elections, both township and district level elections are for the creation of Local People’s Congress (LPC). In other words, township and district is the lowest level of the Chinese parliamentary system. However, the district level elections have more importance as a threshold for democratization than township elections. The district level elections have national level impacts for political changes, considering its scale and their connection to the CCP and the central government. Therefore, efforts to bring democratization of electoral system have been focused on district level elections and the emergence and activities of independent candidates have been remarkable for those elections.

3. How to Control : Dependent Candidates and Special Delegates

However, ironically, since the district level elections have influence on national politics, it is monitored and controlled by the CCP:

According to this law, in theory voters could nominate candidates and have a choice among multiple candidates for each contested sea. Under the new law, these local elections have certainly become more competitive and transparent than those in the Mao era, but they are by no means fully competitive and democratic by any standard. These elections are still dominated and controlled by the CCP, which firmly upholds the one-party rule and allows only one official ideology. Thus, some Chinese scholars consider these local elections to be only ‘semi-competitive (Chen and Zhong, 178).’

To control district level elections, first, the CCP decides who should be selected as a legislator (delegate) for the LPC. The superior CCP committee selects candidates the Party prefers and orders local CCP committees to work for them. Therefore, among all candidates, a majority is nominated and supported by the Party. They are called ‘candidates nominated by organizations’ or ‘pre-selected candidates.’ They are unofficially called ‘dependent candidates.’ They do not need to promote campaign for victory. Many of them have the CCP membership or a member of a separate political organization from the CCP, but works closely with the CCP.

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And among all dependent candidates, those who will take over special positions below are much more important for the CCP. Therefore, it is barely possible that candidates not supported by the Party will take over these positions:

The Head of the District Government The Head of the District Procuratorate The Head of the District Court Secretary and Vice Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party Committee at

District Level The Chairpersons of the District People’s Congress Standing Committee (a

subsidiary institution of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress)

The Chairpersons of the Chinese People’s Political Consultation Conference

In other words, delegates taking over these positions at each district level will have an actual power for district administration as a core leader exclusively connected with the central government and important top organizations of the CCP. Especially, the three latter delegates become a member of the most important organizations of the Communist Party. Basically, the Party controls local areas through the Chinese Communist Party Committee at each administrative division. Also, the Chinese People’s Political Consultation Conference and the Standing Committee decide significant national policies and those policies are declared through the National People’s Congress, which elects the Chinese President and approves appointment of the Premier of the State Council.*

*Like other Communist regimes, the Chinese Communist Party also creates and controls both executive and legislative branch at local and national level. In the reality, there is no clear boundary between the government and Congress and both are under the Party’s control.

4. How to Control: Electoral System for District Level Elections

The second way of the CCP to control district level elections is to use electoral system. The district level elections include all voters and electoral organizations from district, township, and village level and even connect with the superior administrative division. Election precinct is each residential or working unit. It can be one village, but usually not. Each precinct has multiple quotas. Candidates do their campaign within their precinct and if they are selected as a delegate for LPC, people’s interest of that precinct are reflected to the LPC and the district government. The more quotas each precinct has, the better. The problem is that all procedures through this electoral system are for making dependent candidates to be selected:

[Figure: Chinese Electoral System for District Level Elections]

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The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)Committee

electoral affairs leadership group

Electoral Institutes

Prefect/Municipal Level

Decide pre-selected candidates

x x

District District CCP Committee

District electoral affairs leadership group

District electoral committee

Township Township CCP Committee

Township electoral affairs leadership group

Township electoral workgroups

Election Precinct Precinct CCP Committee

Precinct electoral affairs leadership group

Precinct electoral sub-workgroup

The CCP Committee at Prefect/Municipal level selects pre-candidates among incumbent government officials and the list of pre-candidates is directly transferred to the CCP Committee at lower levels.

The CCP Committee at each level organizes electoral affairs leadership group. The leadership group at each level decides how many quotas each precinct

has and creates electoral institutes as a working group. The leadership groups and electoral institutes are under the control of the

CCP Committee. Members of electoral leadership groups and institutes are also the Communist Party members or government officials.

All Committees, electoral affairs leadership groups, and electoral institutes should make pre-candidates form the CCP Committee at Prefect level selected as delegates of LPC.

5. Spaces for Independent Candidates, Problems, and Possibility

1) Spaces For Independent Candidates

Since the CCP decides who should be selected and controls all electoral procedures, it seems there is no mean to make district level elections more competitive, democratic, and transparent. However, the emergence and activities of so-called ‘independent candidates’ and voters’ support for them can be a solution—it is actually almost only one way possible unless the CCP changes itself or achieves inner-party democratization.

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Contrary to dependent candidates, independent candidates are not supported by the Party. Usually, they are against the Party’s control over the elections and try to improve transparency and competitiveness of the elections. Officially, they are called ‘candidates nominated collectively by voters.’ If one independent candidate has more than ten supporters, he can put his name on the initial list of candidates legally. However, how can it be possible, even though the Party strictly controls the selection of candidates and electoral procedures?

The Party wants all pre-selected candidates to be arranged for available positions at LPC. Therefore, the number of pre-selected candidates and available positions at LPC are the same. But it causes a dilemma.

The election law stipulates the number of candidates should be more than the total number of government positions available. It means that some pre-selected candidates may lose an election.

The loss of pre-selected candidates in a given election means that the failure of evaluation and nomination of the CCP committees, which is unacceptable for the leaders of the Party. Furthermore, the defeat of the candidates nominated by the CCP committee might indicate a possible decline of the CCP committee’s political influence.

Therefore, the CCP Committee created a space for independent candidates. For example, precinct A has given three quotas. The electoral leadership group makes a list of candidates more than three. Three of them are pre-selected candidates supported by the Party and the others are independent candidates supported by ordinary voters.

2) Problems

The CCP Committees allow a space for independent candidates just to obey elections laws. In other words, for the CCP, creating a space for independent candidates is an unavoidable choice and thus the CCP creates several obstacles for independent candidates as well in each step for election.

Zoning Electoral Districts The election organizers separated the independent candidates and their supporters into different electorates. Election organizers arranged the independent candidates into a precinct which have huge government departments or state-run firms. In this case, the heads of these departments and firms are the Party-preferred candidates and their staffs are highly organized and mobilized to vote for them.

Voter Registration

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According to the Electoral law, a citizen should register himself/herself as a voter in an electorate before he/she has the right to vote in the electorate and stand for election(s) in this or other electorate(s). To stop the competitive independent candidates from winning elections, some election organizers set barriers in voter registration. They found excuses not to register the ‘potential’ independent candidates as voters, or purposely did not inform them the voter registration deadline until it was due. In order to obstruct the independent candidates from winning elections, election organizers in some cases took methods to increase the ‘controllable’ voters while decreasing the ‘uncontrollable’ voters.

Nomination

Election organizers refuse to give blank nomination forms to independent candidates. Or they delay giving the forms and thus independent candidates have no time to find ten nominations. Sometimes, they do not specify the form submission deadline or require all nominees to gather and sign the form at electoral office on a working day. After receiving the nomination form, the election organizers normally check with the nominators to confirm their intention. It was very common that the election organizers took advantage of this step to intimidate the nominators and destroy their unity.

Final list

Since the electoral group is usually controlled by the Party and the members of the group are the Party members of government officials, it is not easy for independent candidates to be chosen as one of final candidates, even though independent candidates can be registered as one of potential candidates. According to Chinese scholars, it is the biggest “black box” in the electoral procedure. In 2003 and 2006-2007 elections, election organizers, taking advantage of the ambiguous expressions of the relevant article in the Electoral Law, held fake discussion and consultation or did not hold preliminary election (for deciding the final list) and thus most of independent candidates who survived the nomination process were dropped out. Article 31 of the Electoral Law says:

[decide the formal list of candidates] in accordance with the opinion of the majority of voters…If a relative consensus cannot be reached on full candidates for deputies, a preliminary election shall be conducted…

Threats

In many cases, independent candidates are threatened, arrested, or detained. Independent candidates are like protestors or human rights activists for democratization. The Party and policy monitor them carefully. In 2006 and 2007, the director of the Media Press Bureau of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee General Office, Kan Ke, warned journalists and scholars to stop writing

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media reports and academic papers about independent candidates at a closed-door meeting.

The Cancellation of Quotas

For example, precinct A has three quotas. If all three pre-selected candidates win the election, precinct A maintains all three quotas. If only one or two pre-selected candidates win the election or no pre-selected candidates wins the election, precinct A loses its quotas as many as the number of lost pre-selected candidates. The electoral leadership group just cancels quotas. However, at LPC, there are still two remaining positions to be filled. Then, the CCP committee and the electoral group look for other suitable candidates for those two positions at the Congress. The CCP says that new suitable candidates are also independent candidates, because officially, they are not pre-selected candidates; however, in practice, they are supported by the CCP. However, it rarely happens, because the cancellation of the quota means losing a delegate for the Congress who will work for the precinct and voting for the pre-selected candidate might bring some upcoming political reward.

3) Still Remaining Possibility and Strategies of Independent Candidates

Nevertheless, 1) independent candidates can be registered legally as a potential candidate. As mentioned above, it is difficult to put their names on the “final” list of candidates. However, at least, they have a legal base to put their name on the “initial” list of candidates with the support of more than 10 voters. 2) Voters can write the name of an independent candidate on the ballot if the independent candidate’s name is not on the final candidate list. They are called ‘write-in candidates.’ If the amount of votes for a given write-in candidates exceeds the number of voters for other candidates, the write-in candidates could be elected.

Also, many independent candidates are informed that there are many obstacles to prevent them from winning. Therefore, independent candidates study more the Electoral Law (this is the reason why many of independent candidates are law school students or professors), prepare elections prior to other candidates, and use media and the Internet for campaign. Former and current independent candidates from different areas cooperate to increase the total number of independent candidates and support each other. Most of all, some independent candidates attached great importance to the elections for village and urban resident community heads. The village and resident community heads are normally assigned some specific and important tasks in the LPC elections such as voter registration,

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distributing ballots, checking voter qualifications and counting ballots. The villager or resident community heads, who have been democratically elected in the lowest level elections and genuinely represent the villagers’ or urban residents’ interest, can hardly be controlled by the power holders when carrying out these basic and important tasks in the people’s congress elections. Second, the genuinely democratic elections for village and resident community heads may become good examples for the future people’s congress elections. With the experience of voting in democratic elections, the voters will naturally resist the party-manipulated elections. In reality, a group of independent candidates including both urban residents and villagers have been actively involved in the village elections held in some localities.

Hypothesis

1. How to Make Hypothesis

Dependent candidates need support from the Party rather than from voters. Their success is not necessarily related to campaign strategy and there is little similarity between dependent candidates and voters who choose them. However, as explained above, in the existing political circumstance in China, the success of independent candidates completely depends on candidates’ strategy and most of all, voters’ support. Accordingly, it is assumed that voters who have similar socio-economic status with independent candidates are likely to support independent candidates. Therefore, to set up hypothesis, first, it is necessary to analyze socio-economic status and motivations of independent candidates. Then, based on each character which independent candidates have, each hypothesis about voters’ socio-economic status and their support for independent candidates can be made.

2. A Typology of Independent Candidates

No accurate statistics about independent candidates exists; however, independent candidates first emerged in 1980s. In 1980, independent candidates won elections in Chongqing, Changsha, Chengdu, and Beijing. Since 1990s, the emergence of independent candidates became sporadic and Yao Lifa won the first victory at ‘district level’ election. In 2003, the total number of independent candidates began to increase rapidly, even though the number was still around 100 nationwide. In Shenzhen, among 12 independent candidates, two won seats. For 2006-2007 election, the pressure from the CCP on independent candidates became severe; however, the overall number of independent candidates still increased. A researcher estimated that in China there were possibly more than ten thousand independent

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candidates in 2006 and 2007, but not entirely accurate. Currently, the elections for Local People’s Congress have begun November, 2011 and will continue until next year. The elections have 900 million voters at district level and 600 million voters at township level. More than 2 million delegates will be elected at more than 2,000 district level people’s congresses. For the current elections, the first victory is achieved in Nanhai district in Foshan city:

More than 100 independent candidates, including farmers, factory workers, students and university professors, surprised the Communist party by putting themselves up for election to China People's Congress (CPC)… In the south, Guo Huojia, 59, and Li Youzhou, 37, won seats in the city of Foshan. Both men have fought the government for the rights of villagers who have had their land grabbed for property developments, a key source of complaint in the Chinese countryside… Mr Guo, …who may still be under monitoring by security officials, said he was "very excited" by his success, which saw him beat his Communist party-backed rival by over 2,000 votes.

The Guardian, October 12, 2011

In China, independent candidates are similar with human rights and democratic activists. Their characteristics and motivations are categorized as below:

Category

Intellectuals (a

majority of

independent

candidates)

Legal Rights

Defenders

Heads of State-owned Sectors

The Grass-roots Elites

Business people

AndThe

middle class

Who? Teachers, university students (especially from law school), lawyer

Workers, owner-occupiers, peasants, human rights activists

States-owned sectors: government departments, telecom companies, bank branches, TV stations

heads of village committees (usually in rural areas)

Private entrepreneurs,Newly-emerging Chinese middle class

Motives

To achieve their own values of democracy and rule of law

Their legal rights had been violated by state-owned companies,

For possible promotions, position guarantees, business extensions.

To increase their socio-economic status and prestige in

To protect their economic rights, to guarantee their

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property companies, and local government officials.

their own local areas, to develop local community

economic activities from government sanctions

Among four categories, this research will exclude the third type. They become independent candidates to get political or economic benefits from the Party for themselves. For them, being an independent candidate and winning the election is one of ways for their promotion within the Party. Therefore, they are friendly to the Party and not interested in democracy promotion.

3. Hypothesis

Independent candidates usually have higher education and they are young. Some of them are the entrepreneurial class. Many of them come from urban areas and actively use the Internet as a tool for their campaign. Some of their legal or human rights have been violated. Based on this observation, hypothesis about voters and their support for independent candidates are made below:

(A) The level of urbanization: Residents in urban areas are more likely to support independent candidates.

(B) Education Level: Highly educated voters are more likely to support independent candidates. Those with post-secondary education, in particular, have a strong desire to implement proto-typically intellectual values such as transparent elections and the rule of law. Many of independent candidates

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are law school professors or students and their campaign is conducted on campus with support from other students and teachers.

(C) Economic Status: The business community, particularly private entrepreneurs, and middle class have a tendency to support independent candidates in order to protect their economic benefits. Including Foshan city where the first winning independent candidates come from for the current election, cities which have independent candidates are the richest in China.

(D) Subjection to Legal Rights Violations: Laborers, peasants and professional human rights activists are mobilized to vote for independent candidates, in hopes of ultimately earning themselves greater legal rights. They realize their legal rights have been violated by managers of state-owned companies, property companies, and local government officials or people’s congress delegates.

(E)Age: Youth are more likely to support independent candidates because they are less dogmatic and more liberally oriented, which means they are more likely to vote against the authorities.

(F)The use of (access to) technology: People with access to technology and means of communication – especially, the Internet – are more likely to support independent candidates and voters. The government authorities prohibit and censor offline political campaigning for independent candidates, while it is difficult to control online campaigns.

Independent Variables Education level, economic status, violation of legal rights by government, age, access to technology, and level of urbanization.

Dependent Variables The approval rate for independent candidates in district level LPC elections.

Method: Survey

1. Preparation Time frame: 2011 (November)-2012 LPC elections at the district level Need to get basic statistical information about the number of independent

candidates and who was selected as a delegate for LPC from each district.

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(Sources: Electoral committees in each district, Local government databases, China’s National Bureau of Statistics)

Select 6 districts Urban District A Barely have independent candidates and

they are not elected(a level of support for independent candidates: low)

District B Have a number of independent candidates, but not elected(a level of support for independent candidates: middle)

District C Have a number of independent candidates and some of them are elected(a level of support for independent candidates: high)

Rural District D Barely have independent candidates and they are not elected

District E Have a number of independent candidates, but not elected

District F Have a number of independent candidates and some of them are elected

Choose three urban and three rural in order to assess the correlation between urbanization and approval ratings for independent candidates.

It is better that the six localities have similar populations and voting rates for clear comparison (Usually, the overall voting rate for local people’s congress elections is around 40-50%. The Communist Party has claimed that the voting rate is almost 90%; however, it seems like a political rhetoric). But of course, urban areas would have more population and voting rates.

This research chooses 6 districts which have each different circumstance regarding independent candidates to find a clear relationship between voters’ characteristics and a level of support (low, middle, high) for independent candidates. It will be difficult to get accurate approval ratings for independent candidates; therefore, a different number of independent candidates and whether or not they are selected become a standard distinguishing each different approval ratings for them in each district.

Set up survey questions

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2. How/What to Ask for Survey (based on hypothesis)

Approval rate for independent candidates: Ask survey respondents whether or not they supported independent candidates either openly or secretly.

Education level: Make categories according to education levels (primary, secondary, and the post-secondary education) of voters supporting independent candidates.

Economic growth: Make a job category including private entrepreneurs and ask their income level (based on 2006 McKinsey report about the Chinese middle class and their income).

Violation of legal rights by government: The number of voters (supporting independent candidates) whose legal rights had been violated by state-owned companies or local governments or who have participated in or organized protests to protect their legal rights.

Age: Chinese people from age 18 are allowed for voting. Make categories according to each age group (age 18-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, 80 or above) of voters supporting independent candidates.

The use of technology: The number of the internet users among voters supporting independent candidates for political reasons.

The level of urbanization: it does not need to be included in survey, because this research already chooses 3 urban areas and 3 rural areas.

Extra questions: Survey needs to ask why supporters of independent candidates could not support them openly and questions about those who do not support independent candidates for comparison.

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3. Survey (need Chinese translation)

Did you vote for 2011 election? Yes No (If yes, please start this survey.)

1) Did you support independent candidates? Yes No

2) Your educationA. PrimaryB. SecondaryC. Post-SecondaryD. Beyond Post-secondary (Master, Ph.D)

3) Your economic status: Income per year and job

Income

A. < 25,000 renminbi (poor)B. 25000-40,000 renminbi (Lower Middle Class)C. 40,000-100,000 renminbi (Upper Middle Class)D. 100,000-200,000 renminbi (Mass Affluent)E. > 200,000 renminbi (Global Affluent)

Job Field

A. Agriculture (Farmer)B. Industrial WorkerC. Service IndustryD. Knowledge IndustryE. Intellectuals (professor, teacher, student)F. Private EntrepreneurshipG. Private-owned firm employerH. Government employer

4) Do you think your legal rights have ever been violated by state-owned companies or local governments? Yes No

5) Have you ever participated in or organized protests for your legal rights at work?

6) Your age

A. 18-29 B. 30-39 C. 40-49 D. 50-59 E. 60-69 F. 70-70 E. 80 or above

7) Your Internet Usage (please check all applying to you)

A. I have used the Internet to get general information for 2011-2012 elections.B. I have used the Internet to get information about candidates I support.C. I have used the Internet to support candidates (participated in online campaign for

those candidates).

8) If you finally had voted for independent candidates, but had never supported them openly, what was your main reason/concern preventing your public endorsement

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(please select all)?

A. possible threats from the governmentB. I am a member of the CCP.C. I was worried that people around me would be critical of me.D. I was confused about my own political stance.E. No particular reason

9) What was the main reason you did not support independent candidates (if you answer ‘no’ for no.1 question, please answer this question)? Please choose all answers you have.

A. Possible threats from the governmentB. I am a member of the CCP.C. I was worried that people around me would be critical of me.D. I was confused about my own political stance.E. I do not agree to motivations or political stance of independent candidates.F. Independent candidates cannot bring any political or economic advantage to our

community, while the Party-preferred candidates can do.G. No particular reason

4. Reliability of Survey Result Cooperate with international election monitoring organizations such as the Carter Center, the International Republican Institute, etc. Also, considering the increasing number of independent candidates, changing social environment which is beneficial to them, and the attention from international society toward them, it is expected that survey request will be accepted and respondents can answer questions without manipulation. Recently, public opinion polling has been conducted without obstacles in China.

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Analysis and Expected Answers (example)

Survey Question 1) Did you support independent candidates?

Urban District A Approval ratings of independent candidates (%)i.e. Population : 350 Voting : 200 Voting for independent candidates: 5 = 2.5% (support level : low)

District B Population : 340 Voting: 220 Voting for independent candidates: 50= 22.7% (support level: middle)

District C Population : 360 Voting : 200 Voting for independent candidates: 80 (and some of them are elected)

= 40% (support level: high)Rural District D i.e. Population 300

Voting: 180 Voting for independent candidates: 3 = 1.67%

District EDistrict F

Expected Answer for Hypothesis (A): Different approval ratings of independent candidates in urban and rural. According to hypothesis (A), district A,B, and C would have more approval ratings than district D,E, and F. Even though both district A and D have low level of approval ratings, but it is expected that district A have more approval ratings, because it is urbanized.

Survey Question 2) Your education

Urban Area

Education of Voters

Primary Secondary Post-Secondary

Above Total number of voters

District ASupport Indepen

1 (20%)70 (35.9%)

1 (20%)100 (51.28%)

3 (60%)25 (12.82%)

00

5195

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Support othersDistrict B 5 (10%)

60 (35.29%)5 (10%)100 (58.82%)

36 (70%)10 (5.88%)

5 (10%)0

50170

District C 80120

District DDistrict EDistrict F

A)Education of Independent Candidates Supporters B) Education of Other Candidates Supporters

District

A

District

B

District

C

District

D

District

E

District

F0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

PrimarySecondaryPost-SecAbove

Distr

ict A

District

B

District

C

District

D

District

E

District

F0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

PrimarySecondaryPost-SecAbove

Expected Answer for Hypothesis (B): compare education level of those who support independent candidates and those who do not in each district. Over all, voters who support independent candidates have a higher education level than voters who do not support independent candidates (compare graph A) and B)) Also, if you look at graph A) only, in the district which has a higher approval ratings of independent candidates has more voters with a higher education (the number of voters with pose-secondary education in District B is higher than the number of those voters in District A). Rural Area will have the same type of table and two graphs.

With this method, survey question 3) will be analyzed for Hypothesis (C).

Survey question 4) and 5) will be analyzed for Hypothesis (D).

Survey question 6) will be analyzed for Hypothesis (E).

Survey question 7) will be analyzed for Hypothesis (F).

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All analysis have two dimensions. First one is to compare voters for independent candidates and voters for other candidates. Second one is to compare voters for independent candidates according to each different approval ratings in each district and the level of urbanization.

Survey question 8) (about the reason why independent candidates’ supporter could not open their endorsement) and 9) (about the reason why other voters did not support independent candidates) will be analyzed separately to provide more information about what independent candidates do more for their victory.

Reference

AsiaNews.it. 2011. “Non-Communist candidates win elections, but the government continues crackdown.” Accessed December 12. http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Non-Communist-candidates-win-elections,-but-the-government-continues-crackdown-22886.html

Chen, Jie and Yang Zhong. 2002. “Why Do People Vote in Semicompetitive Elections in China?” The Journal of Politics 64(1):178-197.

China Elections and Governance Blog. http://chinaelectionsblog.net/?tag=peoples-congress

Fang, Sophia. 2011. “China’s Budding Democracy Conciousness Amidst Election Crackdown.” The Epoch Times (December 16). Accessed December 18. http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/china-news/chinas-budding-democracy-consciousness-amidst-election-crackdown-160285.html

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