vietnam by numbers 03 2020 - vinacapital.com...march 2020 –page 1 march 2020 vietnam by numbers...

March 2020 –

March 2020 Vietnam by Numbers

• We introduce Vietnam by Numbers, which looks at the key economic and sector data pertinent to Vietnam primarily through charts.

• The same set of charts and tables will be monitored and presented each month. Any commentary will be limited to the key changes that transpired and will be given the ‘less is best’ treatment, essentially letting the figures do the talking.

• The charts and tables are broadly arranged along the categories of global/regional, domestic, and sector related. The publication gives readers a quick snapshot of key macro, market, or sector data and is used for internal or external presentations or needs.

GLOBAL MACRO INDICATORS

Fig 1. Global GDP forecasts (%) Fig 2. OECD Leading Indicator

Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital

As of Mar 2020

Fig 3. OECD Business & Consumer Confidence Indicator Fig 4. VIX, S&P 500

Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital

As of Mar 2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital

As of 31/3/2020

Fig 5. Brent Oil Price vs. Bbg Industrial Metals Index Fig 6. 10 Year Gov’t bond yields (US, EU, JP) vs FED Fund Rate


As of 31/3/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital

As of 31/3/2020

2.9 2.9

5.64.9

2.3

6.1

01234567

2019E

2021E

2019E

2021E

2019

2021E

2019

2021E

2019

2021E

2019

2021E

World EU EmergingAsia

ASEAN-5 US China94

96

98

100

102

104

94

96

98

100

102

104

Consumer Confidence Business Confidence

500

1500

2500

3500

4500

0

20

40

60

80

100

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

VIX Index (LHS) S&P 500

92.1

24.90.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Bbg Industrial Metals Index Brent oil price USD/barrel

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

10Y US Gov't Yield 10Y Japan Gov't Yield10Y EU Gov't Yield FED Fund rate

March 2020 –


Fig 7. Global Manufaturing PMI, IP & Trade Growth

Fig 8. ASEAN 4 – Sovereign CDS spreads



As of Mar 2020

40

45

50

55

-5

0

5

10

Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19

CPB Trade Vol index YoY CPB World IP YoYJPM global mfg PM SA (RHS)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

PH TH ID VN

March 2020 –


VIETNAM MACRO INDICATORS

Fig 9. Vietnam – Annual GDP YoY Growth (%) Fig 10. Vietnam – Quarterly GDP YoY Growth (%)

Annual growth forecast: 2020 VNC: is forecast by VinaCapital

Source: MPI, CEIC, VinaCapital Quarterly growth forecast 2020: is forecast by MPI

Source: CEIC, VinaCapital

Fig 11. Vietnam - GDP per Capita (USD) Fig 12. ASEAN – Real GDP YoY Growth (%)

Source: GSO, VinaCapital Source: CEIC, VinaCapital

Fig 13. Vietnam – Real GDP by Industry GDP

Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Fig 14: ASEAN – Real GDP


7.0

6.0

4.0

012345678

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020MPI

2020VNC

6.97

4.55.1

6.7 6.8

0123456789

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E

18982043 2089 2192

23832528

2705

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

7.0

5.04.3

5.9

0.7

2.4

012345678

2017

2018

2019

2017

2018

2019

2017

2018

2019

2017

2018

2019

2017

2018

2019

2017

2018

2019

Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20GDP, YoY Growth 5.5 5.6 6.4 7.0 6.7 6.9 7.1 6.7 7.5 7.0 3.8Agri., Forestry and Fishery 2.9 2.6 3.4 2.4 1.4 2.9 3.8 2.0 2.0 1.6 0.1Industry and Construction 7.4 5.1 6.4 9.6 7.6 8.0 8.9 9.1 10.2 7.9 5.2Services 6.7 6.7 6.2 6.3 7.0 7.4 7.0 6.9 7.3 8.1 3.3Net indirect taxes -1.6 6.4 7.9 5.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.7 6.6 6.4 4.9% share of GDPAgri., Forestry and Fishery 17.6 17.2 16.8 16.1 15.3 14.8 14.3 17.6 13.0 13.0 10.2Industry and Construction 33.2 33.1 33.2 34.2 34.6 35.0 35.6 35.2 36.0 37.0 36.8Services 37.9 38.4 38.4 38.3 38.6 38.8 38.8 36.1 39.8 39.2 40.4Net indirect taxes 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.1 11.1 10.9 12.5

VN ID MY PH SG TH VN ID MY PH SG THGDP, YoY Growth 7.1 5.2 4.7 6.2 3.4 4.6 7.0 5.0 4.3 5.9 0.7 4.5Private consumption 7.3 5.1 8.0 5.6 4.2 2.6 5.0 7.6 5.8 3.7 1.4Government consumption 6.3 4.8 3.3 13.0 2.9 3.8 3.2 2.0 10.5 2.8 2.2Gross Capital Formation 8.6 6.6 1.4 12.9 -3.4 - 4.4 -2.1 1.5 -0.2 -61.1Change in stocks 3.9 55.6 - 46.4 25.0 -32.5 -34.2 - - -25.6 18.4Net Exports: Goods & Services - 0.5 11.4 - 13.3 0.0 -38.5 8.9 - -0.7 0.0% share of GDPPrivate consumption 67.7 54.9 57.0 68.5 37.0 14.7 54.9 58.8 68.4 38.1 14.6Government consumption 6.4 8.0 12.5 11.1 10.1 23.9 7.9 12.2 11.6 10.3 23.9Gross Capital Formation 31.4 33.4 24.6 30.5 25.0 2.4 33.3 23.1 29.2 24.8 0.9Change in stocks 3.0 1.9 -1.1 0.3 2.1 5.9 1.2 -1.4 -0.3 1.6 6.9Net Exports: Goods & Services -6.7 0.9 7.0 -10.4 27.2 0.0 2.2 7.3 -9.4 26.8 0.0

2018 2019

March 2020 –


Fig 15 Vietnam – CPI, PPI (YoY, %) Fig 16. Vietnam – CPI (%)

As of March 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital As of March 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital

Fig 17. Vietnam – CPI Key Categories (%) Fig 18. ASEAN – CPI (YoY, %)

As of March 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital As of Feb 2020, VN: As of March 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital

Fig 19. Vietnam – CPI Breakdown (%)


Fig 20. Vietnam – PMI Fig 21. Vietnam vs. Asia PMI

As of Mar 2020 Source: IHS Markit, VinaCapital As of Mar 2020 Source: IHS Markit, VinaCapital

4.9

3.0

1.1

-2

0

2

4

6

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep-

16

Dec-

16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep-

17

Dec-

17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep-

18

Dec-

18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep-

19

Dec-

19

Mar

-20

CPI (YoY) Core CPI PPI

4.9

-0.7-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

YoY MoM (RHS)

-1

1

3

5

7

Food Housing HealthTranspo Others CPI

0.3

1.3

2.6

0.7

3.0

4.9

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

SG ID MY PH TH VN

2016 2017 2018 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20CPI, yoy Growth 4.7 2.6 3.0 2.2 3.5 5.2 6.4 5.4 4.9Core inflation yoy Growth 1.9 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.8 3.3 2.9 3.0Foods and Foodstuffs 2.9 -1.8 5.1 2.7 5.6 9.2 10.9 9.3 10.4Housing & Const'n Materials 3.3 4.7 1.1 2.9 3.7 5.1 6.3 5.5 4.5Health and Personal Care 55.7 27.8 3.7 8.8 8.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3Transportation -1.1 6.0 0.2 -3.2 -2.1 3.5 7.5 4.6 -2.6% contribution for yoy growthFoods and Foodstuffs 19.7 -23.3 61.2 42.3 57.0 62.7 60.8 61.7 75.8Housing & Const'n Materials 9.7 26.4 6.0 20.4 16.5 15.2 15.2 15.9 14.1Health and Personal Care 53.4 50.3 6.1 19.7 12.6 2.9 2.4 3.0 3.3Transportation -2.0 20.3 0.7 -13.2 -5.6 6.2 10.8 8.0 -4.9Others 19.2 26.3 26.1 30.8 19.5 13.0 10.7 11.4 11.7

41.940

45

50

55

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

41.9

48.3

40

45

50

55

60

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Sep-18

Dec-18

Mar-19

Jun-19

Sep-19

Dec-19

Mar-20

Asia Vietnam

March 2020 –


Fig 22. Currency (%, vs USD) Fig 23. DXY Index & VND/USD Exchange Rate



Fig 24. VND Trading Bands Fig 25. Vietnam – Bond Yields (%)

Source: Bloomberg, Fiinpro, VinaCapital


As of 31/3/2020

Fig 26. Vietnam – Government bond issuing rate Fig 27. Vietnam - Total value of OMO and T-bill issued

Source: HNX, VinaCapital Source: HNX, Bloomberg, VinaCapital

Fig 28. Vietnam – Top Exports Markets in 2019 Fig 29. Vietnam – Top Exports Products in 2019

Source: Customs, VinaCapital Source: Customs, VinaCapital

-2.1

0.1

-1.9

-5.8

4.2

-14.7

-1.7

1.1

-5.2-4.5

3.3

-0.3-2.0

1.4

-5.6

0.8

8.6

-9.1

4.4

0.22.8

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2018

2019

2020

YTD

2018

2019

2020

YTD

2018

2019

2020

YTD

2018

2019

2020

YTD

2018

2019

2020

YTD

2018

2019

2020

YTD

2018

2019

2020

YTD

VN ID MY PH SG TH DXY

72

77

82

87

92

97

102

107

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

VND/USD DXY Currency (RHS)

19500

20500

21500

22500

23500

24500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Interbank rate Lower bandUpper Band Unofficial Market

1

2

3

4

5

6

1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 15Y

23%

16%

16%9%

8%

7%

20%US

China

EU

ASEAN

Japan

South Korea

Others

20%

14%

12%

7%7%

4%

3%3%

2%

28%

Mobile &spare partsPCs & electronic itemsTextiles & garmentsFootwearMachinery & equipmentWood & wooden productsTransportation vehiclesFisheryIron & steelOthers

March 2020 –


Fig 30. Vietnam – Overview of Imports/Exports

Source: Customs, Mar-GSO, VinaCapital

Fig 31. Vietnam - Investment YoY Growth by Sector (%) Fig 32. Vietnam – Investment Weight By Sector (%)

Source: MOF, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: MOF, CEIC, VinaCapital

Fig 33. Vietnam – Registered & Disbursed FDI, Cumulative YTD (USDbn) Fig 34. Vietnam – Registered FDI Breakdown in 2019

Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Source: CEIC, VinaCapital

Fig 35. Vietnam – Direct Investment vs Portfolio Investment Fig 36. Vietnam – Current Account & Balance of Payments

Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital

USD bn 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD-Mar20Total Imports and Exports 228.3 264.1 298.1 327.6 351.4 428.1 480.6 517.3 115.3Total Exports 114.5 132.0 150.2 162.0 176.6 215.1 243.7 264.2 59.1

%yoy 18.2 15.3 13.8 7.9 9.0 21.8 13.3 8.4 0.5Total Imports 113.8 132.0 147.8 165.6 174.8 213.0 236.9 253.1 56.3

%yoy 6.6 16.0 12.0 12.0 5.6 21.9 11.2 6.8 -1.9Trade Surplus/ Deficit 0.7 0.0 2.4 -3.6 1.8 2.1 6.8 11.1 2.8 Domestic companies 53.8 57.6 63.6 68.3 72.4 85.2 94.9 108.4 23.1 FDI companies 59.9 74.4 84.2 97.2 102.4 127.8 141.9 144.6 33.2

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total investment 11.9 8.9 12.3 11.2 10.2

State 6.8 7.3 6.9 3.9 2.6

Non-State 12.8 9.5 17.1 18.5 17.3

Foreign-Sector 19.9 10.4 12.8 9.6 8.1

Total investment/GDP 26.3 26.4 26.5 33.5 33.938.1 36.9 40.2 40.4 39.9 38.0 37.5 35.7 33.3 31.0

36.1 38.5 38.1 37.7 38.4 38.7 38.9 40.6 43.3 46.0

25.8 24.5 21.6 21.9 21.7 23.3 23.6 23.7 23.4 22.9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Investment State Investment Non-State FDI

12.5

-8.0

41.7

-13.9 -11.8

28.88.7

16.09.0

10.8

9.1 6.7

-6.6-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

(5) - 5

10 15 20 25 30 35

FDI Registered (exl. Purchased stocks) (USD bn)FDI Disbursement (USD bn)%yoy FDI Regis.(RHS)%yoy FDI Disb. (RHS)

65%10%

7%

3%2%

13%

ManufacturingReal Estate ActivitiesWhsle, Retail TradeElec., Gas, Air Con SupplyConstructionOthers

8.4 8.9 9.211.8 12.6

14.115.5

11.3

1.9 1.40.1

-0.1

0.02.1 3.0 3.0

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Direct Investment (USD bn) Porfolio Investment (USD bn)

3.0

5.3

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 9M2019

Current Account/GDP (%) BOP/GDP (%)

March 2020 –


Fig 37. Vietnam – Balance of Payments Accounts

Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital

Fig 38. Vietnam – Foreign Reserves Fig 39. Vietnam – Debt (as % GDP)

Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: MOF, CEIC, VinaCapital

Fig 40. Vietnam – External Debt Breakdown (%) Fig 41. Vietnam – Labour Force & Unemployment Rate

Source: MOF, VinaCapital Source: GSO, VinaCapital

Fig 42. Vietnam – Monthly Minium Wages by Region (VND th)

Source: GSO, VinaCapital

USD mn 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 9M2019Current account 8,617 -2,039 625 -1,651 5,899 7,788

Goods trade balance (f.o.b.) 12,126 7,375 11,042 10,845 16,540 14,722Services trade balance -3,950 -4,765 -4,258 -4,030 -3,680 -2,115Investment income (primary) -8,844 -12,150 -14,144 -16,994 -15,818 -11,537Transfers (secondary) 9,285 7,501 7,985 8,528 8,857 6,718

Financial account 5,571 967 10,726 20,027 8,466 10,723Direct investment (net) 8,050 10,700 11,600 13,620 14,902 10,862Portfolio investment (net) 93 -65 228 2,069 3,021 3,031Other investment (net) -2,572 -9,668 -1,102 4,338 -9,457 -3,170

Net errors and omissions -5,813 -4,959 -2,961 -5,832 -8,334 -4,517Overall balance 8,375 -6,032 8,390 12,544 6,031 13,994Current Account/GDP (%) 3.7 -0.9 0.2 -0.6 2.4 3.0BOP/GDP (%) 3.6 -2.5 3.3 4.5 2.5 5.3

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Total Reserve Minus Gold (USD bn) (LHS)Import Cover (RHS)

56.1 54.3

49.2 48.5

30

40

50

60

70

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E

Public Debt: % of GDP Government Debt: % of GDPNational External Debt: % of GDP External Dept CapPublic Dept Cap

53.7 49.3 46.9 42.4 41.9

46.3 50.7 53.1 57.6 58.1

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Government Enterprise

55.8

2.2

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Labour force (person mn) Unemployment rate (%, RHS)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

R1 R2 R3 R4 General Min Wage

March 2020 –


VIETNAM BANKING SYSTEM

Fig 43. VND Deposit Rate by Term Fig 44. Vietnam – Loans as % of GDP


As of 31/03/2020 Source: SBV, Bloomberg, VinaCapital

Fig 45. Vietnam – Breakdown Loans (%) Fig 46. Vietnam – NIM (%)

Source: Data of 11 banks under Vincapital coverage Source: Data of 11 banks under Vincapital coverage

Fig 47. Vietnam – Credit YoY Growth (%) Fig 48. Vietnam – Credit & Deposit YoY Growth (%)

Source: SBV, Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: SBV, Bloomberg, VinaCapital

Fig 49. Vietnam – LDR (%) Fig 50. Vietnam – NPLs to Gross Loans


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

ON 1W 1M 3M

95.2 97.0 100.8111.0

122.3130.0 130.3 135.6

0

30

60

90

120

150

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

25.9 30.5 34.2 37.0 40.5 45.5 47.5 49.5 51.5 18.8 14.8 12.3 9.9 8.1

7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0

52.3 51.6 50.2 49.6 48.3 43.8 42.3 40.8 39.3

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E

Retail loans SOE loans FDI loans Corp loans

2.89

3.15 3.08

3.29 3.42

3.61 3.53 3.58 3.62

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E

21.0

37.7

29.8

10.98.9

12.514.2

17.3 18.3 18.2

13.9 13.710.4 10.7 10.9

0510152025303540

12.5

14.2

17.318.3 18.2

13.9 13.7

23.0

19.4

14.3

17.7

14.1

12.813.9

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Deposit Growth Credit Growth

85.1

89.8 89.9

93.5 94.0 95.4 94.8 94.3 93.8

80

85

90

95

100

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E

1.83 1.95 2.00

1.71 1.70

1.48

2.25 2.36

1.92

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E

March 2020 –


Fig 51. Vietnam – CAR (%) Fig 52. Vietnam – Total Assets & Regulatory Capital YoY Growth (%)

Source: IMF, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: IMF, CEIC, VinaCapital

Fig 53. Vietnam – ROA (%) Fig 54. Vietnam – ROE (%)


Fig 55. Vietnam – Fee to Total Income Fig 56. Vietnam – Reserve Cover


10.310.9

9.4 9.49.9 9.5 9.5

10.6

14.0

12.612.1

12.711.8 11.5 11.2

10.6

6

8

10

12

14

16

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

State-Owned Banks JSC Banks

30.5

34.0

-5.8

27.5

2.8

20.4

10.4 12.4

12.0

40.4

18.9 5.413.9

10.3

15.7

16.4 18.6

10.9

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Total Assets Growth Regulatory Capital Growth

1.04 1.01 1.00

1.20

1.36

1.56

1.40 1.39 1.45

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E

11.4 11.8 12.8

16.2 17.3

18.6

15.5 14.4 14.4

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E

9.1 9.5 9.4 9.9 11.3

12.4 12.5 13.7

15.4

02468

1012141618

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E

82.4

69.1 66.5

73.9

83.2

89.9

59.4 58.8

69.0

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E

March 2020 –


VIETNAM DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION

Fig 57. Retail Sales & GDP per Capita (USD) Fig 58. Vietnam - Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence (%)


Fig 59. Vietnam – FMCG Growth (yoy) by Category in 4 cities Fig 60. Vietnam – FMCG Growth (yoy) by Category in Rural Areas

Source: Kantar Panel Source: Kantar Panel

Fig 61. ASEAN – Internet Penetration Fig 62. Vietnam – FMCG Sales by Retail Channel

Source: Internet World Stats Jan 2020 Source: Euromonitor International

Fig 63. ASEAN – % Share of E-Commerce to Total Retail Sales Fig 64. ASEAN –E-Commerce Value Growth (yoy)

Source: Euromonitor International Source: Euromonitor International

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Retail sales per capita (US$) GDP per capita (US$)

0

30

60

90

120

150

0

3

6

9

12

15

Jun-

16

Sep-

16

Dec-

16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep-

17

Dec-

17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep-

18

Dec-

18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep-

19

Dec-

19

Mar

-20

RS (inflation adj.) RS Consumer confidence (RHS)

2.3

-0.7

3.9

0.7

6.3 5.85.56.8

3.44.3

13.5

6.7

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

FMCG Dairy Beverage Packagefoods

PersonalCares

Home Care

2018 MAT P9 2019

6.47.9 8.1

3.9

9

2.8

8.8

15.3

8.4

4.5

14.9

3.5

0

5

10

15

20

FMCG Dairy Beverage Packagefoods

PersonalCares

Home Care

2018 MAT P9 2019

68.5

171.3

26.4 22.2

79.0

5.257.0

70.462.6

81.4

40.8

72.188.4 81.7

Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand

Internet Users (mn) Internet Penetration (%)

2017 2018 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019

Vietnam Malaysia Singapore Thailand

Convenience Stores Hypermarkets SupermarketsModern Grocery Retailers Traditional Grocery E-CommerceOthers

1.1 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.7 2.12.8

3.3

4.7 4.45.2

6.8

8.39.2

1.3 1.7 1.92.9

4.4

012345678910

2015

2016

2017

2018

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019


47.8 48.3

32.925.0

62.6

24.9

36.5

25.4

48.7

14.117.9

31.423.8

10.5 12.0

30.2

21.1

53.060.6

010203040506070

2015

2016

2017

2018

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019


March 2020 –


Fig 65. Vietnam – Number of Supermarkets & Shopping Centers Fig 66. Vietnam – Motor Vehicle Sales (Incl MBV & Lexus, unit)


Fig 67. Vietnam – Number of Visitor Arrivals Fig 68. Vietnam – Visitor Arrival Growth by Country (%, yoy)


Fig 69. Vietnam – Total Power Production & Demand (kWh bn)

Fig 70. Vietnam – Power Production and Purchase in 2018

Source: EVNl Source: EVN

Fig 71. Vietnam -- New Supply and Sold Units in HCMC & Hanoi Fig 72. Vietnam – Condo Primary Selling Price (USD/sqm)

Source: CBRE Source: CBRE

-

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

Supermarkets Shopping centers

31,907

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

(18.1) (20)

-

20

40

60

80

(5)

-

5

10

15

20

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD-Mar20

Visitor Arrival (person mn) By Airways (person mn)By Roads (person mn) % yoy No. of visitors (RHS)

23.916.9

-31.9

8.1 6.4

-3.1

3.615.2

-14.2

12.412.2

-19.1

44.3

23.1

-26.1

15.9

29.8

-7.2

15.8

45.9

0.911.9

8.6

-21.4-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2018

2019

YTD-Mar20

2018

2019

YTD-Mar20

2018

2019

YTD-Mar20

2018

2019

YTD-Mar20

2018

2019

YTD-Mar20

2018

2019

YTD-Mar20

2018

2019

YTD-Mar20

2018

2019

YTD-Mar20

CN EU JP ML KR TW TH US

115.3128.6

143.7159.8

174.7192.9

209.4

127.7143.3

159.7177.0

192.8212.3

231.1

0

50

100

150

200

250

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total Demand Total Production & Purchase

40.03

39.52

18.88

1.47 0.1 Hydro PowerCoal firedGas fired/ combined cycleImported from China & LaosFO & Diesel

58,894 63,078

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Total sold unit New launch

6308

4500

2549 2400

1442 1350898 800

0

1500

3000

4500

6000

7500

2016 2017 2018 2019 2016 2017 2018 2019

HCMC Hanoi

Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable

March 2020 –


VIETNAM CAPITAL MARKETS

Fig 73. MSCI Index vs. VNIndex (%) Fig 74. VN-Index & MSCI Global Index Performance



Fig 75. Stock Market Performance (%) Fig 76. PER (x)



Fig 77. Vietnam – Foreign Investors Transactions (VND bn) Fig 78. Average Daily Turnover (USD mn)

As of 31/3/2020 Source: Fiinpro, VinaCapital


Fig 79. Vietnam – AUM of ETF

As of 31/3 2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital

-11.2

24.0

-21.7-10.4

25.2

-21.4-16.6

15.4

-23.9

-11.3

5.2

-31.0

-9.3

7.7

-31.1-40

-20

0

20

40

2018

2019

2020

YTD

2018

2019

2020

YTD

2018

2019

2020

YTD

2018

2019

2020

YTD

2018

2019

2020

YTD

Global DevelopedMkt.

EmergingMkt.

ASEAN VN-Index

5060708090

100110120130

Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20

Global Developed Mkt. Emerging Mkt.ASEAN VN-Index

VN ID MY PH SG TH2015 6.1 -12.1 -3.9 -3.9 -14.3 -14.0

2016 14.8 15.3 -3.0 -1.6 -0.1 19.8

2017 48.0 20.0 9.4 25.1 18.1 13.7

2018 -9.3 -2.5 -5.9 -12.8 -9.8 -10.8

2019 7.7 1.7 -6.0 4.7 5.0 1.0

2020 YTD -31.1 -27.9 -15.0 -31.9 -23.0 -28.7

-40-20

0204060

VN ID MY PH SG TH2015 12.5 26.8 18.0 19.8 13.3 21.9

2016 16.5 26.2 16.9 19.4 12.2 16.6

2017 19.0 25.1 16.7 23.4 11.0 18.9

2018 16.4 19.4 18.8 18.9 11.1 15.9

2019 16.0 20.1 18.6 17.1 12.2 18.9

2020 YTD 10.3 13.2 15.0 11.6 9.6 13.2

06

12182430

2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD 2020

Buy 89,538.3 169,309.0 265,162.3 162,390.6 37,334.9

Sell (97,267.3) (142,881.5) (221,789.1) (155,689.1) (42,879.2)

Net (7,729.0) 26,427.5 43,373.3 6,701.4 (5,544.2)

(300,000)

(200,000)

(100,000)

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

0.13

0.390.24

0.10

0.83

1.86

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2018

2019

YTD-20

202018

2019

YTD-20

202018

2019

YTD-20

202018

2019

YTD-20

202018

2019

YTD-20

202018

2019

YTD-20

20

VN ID MY PH SG TH

0

2

4

6

0

500

1000

1500

Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20

Premia MSCI (USD mn) VFMVN30 (USD mn)VanEck (USD mn) FTSE (USD mn)Total AUM/Freefloat Mkt Cap(%)

March 2020 –


Classified: Internal

Disclaimer

© 2020 VinaCapital Fund Management JSC (VCFM). All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and is being issued by VCFM or one of its affiliates for internal distribution in Vietnam. The information herein is based on public and other sources believed to be reliable. Except for information about VCFM, VCFM makes no representation about the accuracy of such information. Opinions, estimates and projections expressed in this report represent the current views of the author at the date of publication only. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of VCFM and are subject to change without notice. VCFM has no obligation to update, amend or in any way modify this report or otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any of the subject matter or opinion, projection or estimate contained within it changes or becomes inaccurate. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed in this report constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or to sell any securities or any option, futures, or other derivative instruments in any jurisdiction. Nor should it be construed as an advertisement for any financial instruments. Officers of VCFM may have a financial interest in securities mentioned in this report or in related instruments. This research report is prepared for general circulation and for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person who may receive or read this report. Investors should note that the prices of securities fluctuate and may rise and fall. Past performance, if any, is no guide to the future. Financial instruments discussed in this note may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own financial decisions based on their independent financial advisors as they believe necessary and based on their particular financial situation and investment objectives. This report may not be copied, reproduced, published, or redistributed by any person for any purpose without the express permission of VCFM in writing.

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