viernes ecpa
TRANSCRIPT
Ana P. BarrosDuke University
Lima, March 22, 2013
El Nexo Agua-Energia-Desarollo: riesgos naturales y interacciones entre infraestrutura, clima y paisaje enun marco de adaptación a multiples escalas
Observaciones - Rigorosas, Consistentes, Dense, Extensas
Analísis y Interpretación – Representación y modelos
Integración de datos e física >>> Contexto de riesgo
Evaluar Vulnerabilidades , “Breaking Points”
DescobertaCiencia
Pilares de Adaptación
Nilometer 622-1284 A.D.
From Koutsoyannis, 2004
(Mandelbrot and Wallis 1977, Hurst 1951, Barros and Evans 1996)
The idea that persistent persistent (0.5<H<1.0)(0.5<H<1.0)movements in a time seriestime series tend to be part of largertrendstrends and cyclescycles more often than they are completely random.
H=0.91
H=0.5
Ciclos Climáticos…Dos series con media y varianciaestadísticas iguales
“Ruído Blanco”
Renaissance
Y de un punto de vista regional, local que significa? Revolución
Industrial
PresaConstruída
Note la influencia de la duración del periodo de observación
Analísis de Riesgo – Infraestrutura
?
“Gran Muralla Andina”
Finer and Jenkins, 2012
Environmental Services
Conectividad HidrologicaConectividad Ecologica Material (Sedimentos, Nutrientes)
Sustainability /Climate
India: Plans to build 292 hydroelectric dams in the Himalayas
Green, Renewable Energy
HidroAgoyan Dam, Pastaza River, Ecuador
Endicamientos Naturales : Formación y Falla
Penna e al. 2012)
New et al. 2001
Changing Mix of Stations: Raingauge Stations Over Time
(NOAA GHCN Dataset)
Courtesy David Easterling, NOAA- NCDC
GHCN-Monthly Version 3.0• The dataset for global climate monitoring and assessment
– 7280 mean temperature stations; >20,000 precipitation stations– Global coverage from 1880 to present– GHCN-M Version 3 released in 2010 (temperature only)
Courtesy David Easterling, NOAA- NCDC
Barros 2012
a)
Estaciones hydrométricas
1 – Africa2 – Asia3 – South America4 – North America, Central America, and the Caribbean5 – Europe6 – South-West Pacific
WMO Region
Elev
ation
H [m
]
Barros 2012
b)
Estaciones hydrométricas
Hydrometeorology of Mountainous RegionsMaritime vs Continental Tropical Monsoon RegimesMid-Latitude Seasonal RegimesGlobal to Regional Scale ControlsSummit to Sea and Sea To Summit
From Clouds to River NetworksFrom Clouds to River Networks1st Principal Component of Cloudiness (IR Brightness)
Giovannetone and Barros 2008 and 2009
Warm Rain
“Deep” Convection
DaytimeDaytimeTRMM Central AndesTRMM Central Andes
Giovannettone and Barros, 2009
Shallow Embedded Convection
NighttimeNighttime
TRMM Central AndesTRMM Central Andes
Giovannettone and Barros, 2009
TRMM PFs December 1998-2010
Wet season
1st order streams
3500m
Ridge-Valley, ET feedback,and
Mountain-Valley Circulations
Rampanelli et al. (2004)
Sunrise Forenoon
Noon Later Afternoon
Evening Early Night
Middle of NightLate Night to Morning
Lowman and Barros, 2013
Class Elevation Range (m)
1 6000-36002 3599-25003 2499-22004 2199-15005 1499-13006 1299-9007 899-5008 499-0
AGU Poster EP32B-0737 Deitz et al. 2011
AGU Poster EP32B-0737 Deitz et al. 2011
First Observations Central Andes
San Pedro, Andes
20122011Rio Kospiñata
Financiado por la NSF
Precipitable water
Precipitable water from ERA-Interim 2011
ACRGs installed in 2011
Erlingis (2012)
Moisture transport – Andes
Role of vegetation/ET in “harvesting” atmospheric moisture???
Vertically integrated moisture flux
Verano Invierno
Weak LLJ Daily Precipitation
TRMM 3B42
ERA-Interim
NCEP-FNL
NCEP/NCAR ReanalysisWater Vapor Transport
1951-2010
Necessidades Fundamentales de Investigación
Monitoreo
Organización the Processos y Flujos en el Paisaje en Multiples Escalas
Recursos Riesgos Sostenibilidad