video games investment review

26
Global Games Investment Review Executive Summary 2012 “Amazingly complete report, great stuff! I don’t send out a lot of unsolicited random compliments, but you guys earned this one!” Dr. Mike Capps* President Epic Games (Infinity Blade, Gears of War, Unreal, Unreal Engine) © Digi-Capital Limited 2012 www.digi-capital.com * Commenting on 2011 Review

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Page 1: Video games investment review

Global Games Investment Review Executive Summary

2012

“Amazingly complete report, great stuff! I don’t send out a lot of unsolicited random compliments,

but you guys earned this one!”

Dr. Mike Capps* President Epic Games

(Infinity Blade, Gears of War, Unreal, Unreal Engine)

© Digi-Capital Limited 2012 www.digi-capital.com

* Commenting on 2011 Review

Page 2: Video games investment review

2

Disclaimer

This document has been produced by Digi-Capital Limited and is furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, to any other person. No representation or warranty (expressed or implied) is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein and, accordingly, Digi-Capital Limited does not accept any liability whatsoever arising directly or indirectly from the use of this document. In particular, the inclusion of any financial projections are presented solely for illustrative purposes and do not constitute a forecast. The recipient should independently review the underlying assumptions of the financial projections. This document is intended for initial contact with individuals and entities known to Digi-Capital Limited. This document is intended for use by the individual to whom it is sent, it is confidential and may not be reproduced in any form, further distributed to any other person, passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of Digi-Capital Limited. In the event that you are not the recipient indicated and you have inadvertently received this document, please delete it immediately. This document does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation or invitation to purchase, subscribe for, or otherwise acquire any securities nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any investment decision should be made solely on final documentation, and then only after review of the diligence materials and consideration of all relevant risks. Digi-Capital Limited does not have any responsibility for the information contained herein and does not make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any statements, estimates or other information contained in this document. The information contained herein, while obtained from sources believed to be reliable, is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. This document may include forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements as to future operating results and potential acquisitions and contracts. Forward-looking statements are sometimes, but not always, identified by their use of a date in the future or such words as “anticipates”, “aims”, “could”, “may”, “should”, “expects”, “believes”, “intends”, “plans” or “targets”. By their nature, forward-looking statements are inherently predictive, speculative and involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. No assurances can be given that the forward-looking statements in this document will be realised. Digi-Capital Limited does not intend to update these forward-looking statements. No securities regulatory authority has approved or expressed an opinion about Digi-Capital Limited’s business prospects or any related securities. Any such securities have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), or any other state or federal securities laws and may not be offered or sold in the United States of America absent registration under the Securities Act or an exemption from the registration requirements thereof. Digi-Capital Limited and any entity referred to in this document have not and will not be registered under the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended or the US Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and any related securities may not be offered or sold or otherwise transferred within the United States or to, or for the account or benefit of, U.S. persons except under circumstances which will not require Digi-Capital Limited or any associated entity to register in the United States in accordance with the foregoing laws or any other law. Digi-Capital Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Digi-Capital Limited is the copyright owner of this document and does not grant you any licence to copy, adapt or distribute it, in whole or in part, without Digi-Capital Limited’s written permission to do so.

Page 3: Video games investment review

3

Contents (of full Games Investment Review and individual Sector Reviews)

Executive summary (free)

Sector Reviews (dynamics, trends, 2012*/2011/2010 private placements and M&A, public company comparables*)

– Mobile/tablet

– Social/casual

– Massively Multiplayer Online (MMO)

– Console

– Middleware

– Advertising

About Digi-Capital

* As at 13th February 2012. No public company comparables for Middleware or Advertising

4

21

39

58

71

86

95

100

Page 4: Video games investment review

4

Executive summary

Page 5: Video games investment review

5

ConsolidationVille: Social Games 1.0 M&A in 2012

Games investment and M&A more than doubled in 2011 Private placements grew value by 96% to $2B, volume by 67% to 152 transactions, average fundraising round size by 17% to $13M Together with Zynga ($1B+) and Nexon ($1.2B) IPOs, investment value nearly quadrupled M&A grew value by 160% to $3.4B, volume by 88% to 113 transactions, average transaction size by 38% to $30.4M Private placement and M&A activity led by social, mobile, MMO and middleware

Social Games 1.0 M&A in 2012 – exit or consolidate (or you might miss the boat) Social/casual dominated investment and M&A in 2011 (57% of private placement value, 45% of M&A value) Zynga IPO may be the high water mark for Social Games 1.0, as it becomes harder to keep social games social (i.e. user acquisition and retention) Analysis comparing total games portfolio DAU and average individual game DAU shows some (e.g. Wooga, King) but not all delivering in a crowded market Current sector dynamics and dealflow indicates 2012 could be the year for Social Games 1.0 consolidating M&A

Social-mobile and cross-platform are the next battlegrounds for games investment and M&A Mobile/tablet 2nd in transaction volume (30% private placement, 27% M&A) but not value (16% private placement, 4% M&A) as an early stage market DeNA (2011 >$1.4B revenue at 50% operating margin) and Gree (12 months to December 2011 >$1.4B revenue at 46% operating margin) show what investment in

social-mobile games can deliver Mobile/tablet, social-mobile and cross-platform (iOS/Android/social network) attracting serious interest from both investors and acquirers

Free-to-play and new market entrants reinvigorating MMO* M&A and investment opportunities MMO 2nd (31%) in M&A value due to large scale transactions, but only 4th (8%) in private placement value due to investment risk profile Nexon (>$1.1B revenue at 58% EBITDA margin in 2011) shows why the MMO market is moving towards free-to-play Consolidating M&A and investment opportunities through 2012 due to continued MMO market transition and growth

Asian consolidating M&A and investment hold great promise, but local knowledge and relationship gaps remain Strong Chinese, Japanese and South Korean games companies are looking for Western M&A and investments, but local knowledge and relationship gaps remain Similarly Western games companies are looking for strong Chinese, Japanese and South Korean partners, but face the opposite side of the same challenge By bridging relationships and different business/investment cultures, this may become one of the dominant axes for games M&A and investment

Console giants must accelerate pivot to online/mobile Electronic Arts has led the way with blockbuster M&A of PopCap and Playfish, yielding synergies with Sims Social Other cash generative console/MMO publishers have a window of opportunity for online/mobile investments and M&A before it is too late to change

Middleware is the dark horse generating significant investment and M&A Middleware 3rd by value in both private placements (18%) and M&A (16%) despite being lower profile than consumer games sectors High profile M&A from non-traditional sources such as Visa’s acquisition of PlaySpan for $190M shows the potential for middleware investors/management Accelerating M&A and investment in online/mobile middleware driven by growth in underlying online/mobile games markets

* MMO = Massively Multiplayer Online games

Page 6: Video games investment review

6

The video games market continues to transform across sectors

Casual online Simple single player online/download games Played on browser or downloaded Example company: Big Fish Games

Social online Simple multiplayer online games Played on social networks Example company: Zynga

Mobile/tablet (iPhone/iPad/Android) Single player mobile games Played on smartphones/tablets Example company: Rovio

Browser based MMO Thousands of simultaneous online player games Played on browser based online MMO websites Example company: Gameforge

Social mobile Multiplayer mobile games Played on smartphones/tablets Example company: Gree

Console Retail/digital download console games Played on PS3, XBox360, Wii, 3DS, PSP Example company: Activision Blizzard

Client based Massively Multiplayer Online (“MMO”) Thousands of simultaneous online player games Played on PC/Console (via retail or digital download) Example company: NCSoft

Middleware (online, mobile and console/PC) Technology for online/smartphone/tablet games Software as a Service B2B business model Example company: Unity

Page 7: Video games investment review

7

As online/mobile games both grow and fragment the market

Sources: PWC, Companies, Casual Gaming Association, TechCrunch, Inside Network Note: Online includes MMO, casual and social games. Total revenue excludes hardware revenue

Online/mobile growing scale and share 2010P $22B revenue = 39% of global video games revenue 2015F $41B revenue = 50% of global video games revenue

As consumer markets fragment Apple, Google grew Casual Mobile market (25B+ Apps downloaded) Gree, DeNA grew Social-Mobile market (170M+ users) Tencent, Zynga, Yahoo!, Big Fish Games grew Social/Casual Web

market (1B+ users) Gameforge, Bigpoint grew free-to-play Browser MMO market

(500M+ registered users) Activision-Blizzard, Nexon, NCSoft grew Client MMO market (40m+

subscribers/users) Wii grew Casual Console market (89M+ Wii’s sold) Onlive, Gaikai growing Cloud-Gaming across web/mobile/TV (no

console)

Supported by profitable business models Best companies growing revenue 100%+ annually while also

generating 20-50+% EBITDA margins App stores: paid and free-to-play, virtual goods, advertising World of Warcraft: $12.99-$14.99 monthly fee Zynga: free-to-play, virtual goods, advertising Gree: free-to-play, virtual goods, advertising Nexon: free-to-play, virtual goods

And requiring specific skills and approaches Multiple, parallel game development business platforms (not “one

game” hit driven companies) Multiple distributors (not just Facebook) across platforms and

geographies Rapid, low cost game development and continuous daily

redevelopment cycles for rapid market response Fast failure (cut commercial losers, back commercial winners) Strong analytics (to maximise commercial returns) Aimed at delivering true scalability and category leadership, with

profit margins increasing as revenue grows

Console/PC

Online/Mobile

Casual Hardcore

Page 8: Video games investment review

Value (large long-term niche)

Volume (mass market growth)

China

Japan

South Korea

India

Brazil

America

Europe

Social

Mobile

Social-mobile

Free-to-play MMO

Online/mobile middleware

Console

Retail MMO

Users: thousands to tens of millions

ARPU: $-$$$

Costs: $ millions to tens of millions

Operating profit: negative to 20%+

Growth rates: negative to <10%

Business model: unit sales, subscriptions, virtual goods

Users: thousands to hundreds of millions

ARPU: ¢ - $$

Costs: $ tens of thousands to millions

Operating profit: negative to 70%+

Growth rates: negative to 100%+

Business model: unit sales, free, virtual goods, ads

Creating the Big V: the great games market split

8

Page 9: Video games investment review

9

Asia, not America, could dominate the global games market

Sources: PWC (excludes hardware revenue), Companies * Note: Pure console excludes MMO † Note: Online includes MMO, casual and social games ** Average Revenue per User

Online† and mobile games

should grow total video games

market size to $82B and take

50% revenue share at $41B

(14% CAGR 11F-15F). The

historically strong pure

console* sector is flat to down

Asia and Europe should take

87% revenue share for online

and mobile games (China 36%,

Europe 20%, South Korea

12%, Japan 10% in 2015F).

North America remains

important Regional Online/Mobile Games Revenue ($B)

Global Video Games Sector Revenue ($B)

Chinese, Japanese and South

Korean domestic strength has

produced high volume (up to

20M peak concurrent users),

low ARPU**, cost efficient

games businesses with up to

50%+ operating margins,

enabling significant

investment in foreign markets

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F

Console Online Mobile PC Advertising

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F

Asia Europe North America Latin America

Page 10: Video games investment review

10

Games investment and M&A more than doubled in 2011

Sources: CapitalIQ (excludes Vivendi Activision and Vivendi Universal Publishing deals), NPD Group, Charttrack, GfK, Activision Blizzard, Companies, Bloomberg, VentureBeat, NY Times Note: Funds raised/transaction value only includes disclosed or estimated amounts, including announced earn outs where applicable * Excludes Tencent’s $760M fund announced in January 2011

Games private placements nearly doubled in 2011* Private placement volume grew 67% to 152 transactions

Private placement value grew 96% to $2B

Average private placement deal size grew 17% to $13M

Together with IPOs, total games investment nearly quadrupled Zynga raised $1B+ at a $8.9B valuation

Nexon raised $1.2B at $7.2B valuation

Games M&A more than doubled in 2011 M&A volume grew 88% to 113 transactions

M&A value grew 160% to $3.4B

Average M&A deal size grew 38% to $30.4M

Quality investment demand still exceeds supply High quality, high growth (100% annual revenue growth, 20-50%+ operating margin) online/mobile games companies are seeking investment to accelerate growth Outside major investment deals, online/mobile games companies still find it

challenging to find high quality investors Traditional VCs becoming increasingly selective, with a recent trend towards later

stage games deals. This may change as online/mobile game markets evolve in 2012

With global consolidation reflecting changing dynamics US Console – US Social/Casual: Electronic Arts/Popcap $1.3B US Media – US Social/Casual: Disney/Playdom $763M US Gambling – US Social/Casual: IGT/Double Down Interactive $500M US Console – Europe Social/Casual: Electronic Arts/Playfish $400M Japan Mobile – US Mobile: DeNa/NgMoco:) $400M China Social/Casual/MMO – US MMO: Tencent/Riot Est. $350M-$400M US Finance – US Middleware: Visa/Playspan $190M China MMO – China MMO: Changyou/17173.com $163M Japan Mobile – US Mobile: Gree/Openfeint $104M China MMO – US Advertising: Shanda/Mochi Media $80M

Global video games private placements* ($M)

Global video games mergers and acquisitions ($M)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Transaction value Number of transactions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Funds raised Number of investments

Page 11: Video games investment review

11

With most activity in social, mobile, MMO & middleware*

Sources: CapitalIQ (excludes Vivendi Activision and Vivendi Universal Publishing deals), NPD Group, Charttrack, GfK, Activision Blizzard, Companies, Bloomberg, VentureBeat Note: Funds raised/transaction value only includes disclosed or estimated amounts, including announced earn outs where applicable + As at 13 February 2012 ** Excludes Tencent’s $760M fund announced in January 2011

Sector private placements 2011*

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

MMO

Mobile

Advertising

Console/PC

Middleware

Social/Casual**

Transaction Volume

Tra

nsa

ctio

n V

alu

e ($

M)

Sector M&A 2011*

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

MMO

Mobile

Advertising Console/PC

Middleware

Social/Casual

Transaction Volume

Tra

nsa

ctio

n V

alu

e ($

M)

*See full Review and individual Sector Reviews for detailed private placements, M&A, and public company valuations+

Selected M&A* Selected private placements*

Date Target Acquirer Deal value

26 Apr 11 $350m

04 Feb 11 Est. $350M-

$400M

22 Apr 11 $104m

12 Jul 11 $1,300m

09 Feb 11 $190m

12 Oct10 $400m

17 Oct 11 $30m

Sector

MMO

MMO

Mobile

Social/Casual

Middleware

Mobile

Date Target Investors Deal value Sector

Social/Casual

Social/Casual

Mobile

Social/Casual

Mobile

MMO

01 Aug 11 $35m

04 Dec 11 $26m

10 Mar 11 $42m

26 May 11 $85m 7 investors

19 Jan12 $85m 13 Jan 12 $500m Social/Casual

20 Jul 11 $30m Middleware

Page 12: Video games investment review

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Online/mobile independents: invest for growth or exit now

* Note: some outlier deals may occur, e.g. Microsoft/Massive acquisition + Note: highlighted companies are for illustrative purposes only

Consolidation Curve for Video Games

Sector Launch

Sector Growth for Scale

Sector Consolidation

Sector Equilibrium

Sector Consolidation

Low

High

Medium

Advertising

Mobile

Social/Casual Online

Client based MMO

Console/PC

Expected Deal

Activity*

- VC Investment - Some small

M&A

- Limited M&A/ investment

- Cost focus - Alliances or

spinoffs

- Growth equity investment

- High volume, mid-market strategic M&A

- Leveraged buyouts

- Low volume, large scale strategic M&A

Browser based MMO

Middleware Social-Mobile

Potential Consolidators+

Asian Games

Online/Mobile Games Console Games

Media/Other

• International growth platforms • IP for strong domestic markets

• Synergy with core business • Leverage distribution platforms

• Synergy with core business • Diversify revenue streams

• Investment in growth markets • Diversify revenue streams

Also potential private equity/IPO exits

Page 13: Video games investment review

There is an opportunity for dedicated online/mobile game funds

13

Investing in quality online/mobile games companies* 50-100% annual revenue growth 20-50%+ operating margin or potential $1M+ revenue Domestic strength with East/West ambitions (Asia to the West or the West to Asia) Strong management teams, intellectual property and commercial track records with clear exit

strategies Specific sector focus+

Casual/social online iPhone/iPad, other smartphone/tablet Social-mobile Browser based MMO Online/smartphone/tablet middleware Cloud gaming Gamification

With clear investment strategy $5M average investment ($1-10M range) VC ROI targets (30%+ IRR, 5-10x money multiple) Direct Western and Asian investments Co-investment with Tier 1 partners Clear exit paths via trade sale to strategic game and media corporates as market consolidates IPO potential depending on market conditions

And industry standard fund structure $100M+ committed funds 2012-2016 investment period (aim to invest 75%+, remainder for follow on rounds) 2012-2021 fund lifetime Committed funds fee basis Average 2% annual management fee 20% General Partners carry

Return of funds invested before carry Return of fees before carry

Example Fund Structure

Limited Partners Investors

Game Fund $100M+ funds committed 5 year investment period

10 year fund lifetime

General Partners Source, invest in, oversee

and exit portfolio companies

Portfolio Companies

* Equity investments, not project funding/publishing of individual games + Not pure console or retail MMO due to investment risk Note: example is for illustrative purposes only

Tencent, Shanda, Giant Interactive, The9 and Perfect World have invested in dedicated funds

Page 14: Video games investment review

14

There are potential growth and consolidation opportunities*

Sector Mobile Social/Casual MMO Console Middleware Advertising

Opportunities Small to mid-market tactical tuck-in or strategic roll-up M&A

Selective large scale M&A for international growth platforms or to bring leading IPs into strong domestic markets

Avoid large, value destroying M&A

Organic investment in mobile and social-mobile, with focus on cross-platform (iOS, Android, Facebook, Tencent, Renren, Gree, DeNA, other)

Leverage IPs from mobile to cross-platform social-mobile

Commercial partnerships with brand owners for licensed mobile and social-mobile games

Invest in game fund

Small to mid-market tactical tuck-in or strategic roll-up M&A

Highly selective large scale M&A for international growth platforms or to bring leading IPs into strong domestic markets

Avoid large, value destroying M&A

Organic investment in social, with focus on cross-platform

Leverage IPs from social to cross-platform social-mobile

Commercial partnerships with brand owners for licensed social/ casual games

Invest in game fund

Highly selective large scale M&A for international growth platforms or to bring leading IPs into strong domestic markets

Mid-market strategic roll-up M&A

Avoid large, value destroying M&A

Highly selective new IP investment in client based MMO, preferably leveraging existing IPs

Focused new IP investment in browser based MMO, preferably leveraging existing IPs

Commercial partnerships with brand owners for licensed MMOs

Invest in game fund

Acquire economically challenged AAA independents to repurpose for high quality online/ mobile games

Avoid large, value destroying M&A

Mid-market online/ mobile middleware strategic roll-up M&A

Small tactical M&A to deepen technology platform and/or cut costs

Invest in game fund

Limited organic investment

Small strategic M&A

Avoid large, value destroying M&A

For major online/mobile games companies

* Note: opportunities are for illustrative purposes only

Page 15: Video games investment review

15

There are potential growth and consolidation opportunities*

Sector Mobile Social/Casual MMO Console Middleware Advertising

Opportunities Small to mid-market M&A

Avoid large, value destroying M&A

Organic investment to leverage existing IPs in mobile and social-mobile with focus on cross-platform

Commercial partnerships with brand owners for licensed mobile and social-mobile games

Invest in game fund

Small to mid-market tactical tuck-in or roll-up M&A

Avoid large, value destroying M&A

Organic investment to leverage existing IPs in social/ casual with focus on cross-platform

Commercial partnerships with brand owners for licensed social/ casual games

Invest in game fund

Highly selective large scale M&A for international growth platforms or to bring leading IPs into strong domestic markets

Avoid large, value destroying M&A

Mid-market strategic M&A

Highly selective new IP investment in client based MMO, preferably leveraging existing IPs

Focused new IP investment in browser based MMO with focus on cross-platform potential, preferably leveraging existing IPs

Commercial partnerships with brand owners for licensed MMOs

Invest in game fund

Core franchise organic investment

Limited new IP investment until 8th generation consoles

Avoid large, value destroying M&A

Acquire economically challenged AAA independents to control internal costs or repurpose for high quality online/mobile games

Commercial partnerships with brand owners for licensed console games

Strategic review of underperforming assets with potential redeployment to online/mobile or disposals through M&A

Mid-market strategic online/ mobile middleware roll-up M&A

Small tactical M&A to deepen technology platform or cut costs

Invest in game fund

Limited organic investment

Small strategic M&A

Avoid large, value destroying M&A

For major console games companies

* Note: opportunities are for illustrative purposes only

Page 16: Video games investment review

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There are potential growth and consolidation opportunities*

Sector Mobile Social/Casual MMO Console Middleware Advertising

Opportunities VC or growth equity fundraising

Exit to major games consolidator

Organic investment in mobile and social-mobile, with focus on cross-platform

Leverage IPs from mobile to cross-platform social-mobile

Commercial partnerships with brand owners for licensed mobile and social-mobile games

VC or growth equity fundraising

Exit to major games consolidator

Private equity buyout

Organic investment in social/casual with focus on cross-platform

Leverage IPs from social/casual to cross-platform social-mobile

Commercial partnerships with brand owners for licensed social/ casual and social-mobile games

VC or growth equity fundraising

Exit to major games consolidator

Private equity buyout

Highly selective new IP investment in client based MMO, preferably leveraging existing IPs

Focused new IP investment in browser based MMO with focus on cross-platform potential, preferably leveraging existing IPs

Commercial partnerships with brand owners for licensed MMOs

Exit to major games consolidator

Strategic review of underperforming assets with potential redeployment to online/mobile or disposals through M&A

Core franchise organic investment (if possible)

Limited new IP investment until 8th generation consoles

Commercial partnerships with brand owners for licensed console games

Mid-market strategic online/ mobile middleware roll-up M&A

VC or growth equity fundraising

Exit to major games consolidator

Private equity buyout

Small tactical M&A to deepen technology platform and/or cut costs

VC or growth equity fundraising

Exit to major games consolidator

Mid-market strategic advertising roll-up M&A

Small tactical M&A to deepen technology platform and/or cut costs

For independent games companies

* Note: opportunities are for illustrative purposes only

Page 17: Video games investment review

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For venture capital firms

* Note: opportunities are for illustrative purposes only

There are potential growth and consolidation opportunities*

Sector Mobile Social/Casual MMO Console Middleware Advertising

Opportunities Portfolio company M&A to major games consolidators

Investment in early to late stage mobile and social-mobile, with focus on cross-platform

Investment in mobile and social-mobile strategic roll-ups

Follow-on investments in portfolio companies pivoting from mobile to cross-platform social-mobile

Portfolio company M&A to major games consolidators

Investment in early to late stage social/casual with focus on cross-platform

Investment in social/casual strategic roll-ups

Follow-on investments in portfolio companies pivoting from social/casual to cross-platform social-mobile

Portfolio company M&A to major games consolidators

Investment in early to late stage browser based MMO with focus on cross-platform

Investment in browser based MMO strategic roll-ups

Highly selective investment in client based MMO

Portfolio company M&A (if any) to major games consolidators

Portfolio company M&A to major games consolidators

Investment in early to late stage online/mobile middleware with focus on cross-platform

Investment in online/mobile middleware strategic roll-ups

Portfolio company M&A to major games consolidators

Selective investment in advertising platforms

Page 18: Video games investment review

18

For private equity firms

* Note: opportunities are for illustrative purposes only

There are potential growth and consolidation opportunities*

Sector Mobile Social/Casual MMO Console Middleware Advertising

Opportunities Portfolio company M&A to major games consolidators

Selective growth equity investments in mobile and social-mobile, with focus on cross-platform

Selective growth equity investments in mobile and social-mobile strategic roll-ups

Portfolio company M&A to major games consolidators

Growth equity or LBO investment in social/casual with focus on cross-platform

Growth equity investment in social/casual strategic roll-ups

Portfolio company M&A to major games consolidators

Growth equity or LBO investment in browser based MMO with focus on cross-platform

Growth equity investment in browser based MMO strategic roll-ups

Highly selective growth equity investment in client based MMO

Portfolio company M&A (if any) to major games consolidators

Portfolio company M&A to major games consolidators

Selective growth equity investment in online/mobile middleware with focus on cross-platform

Selective growth equity investment in online/mobile middleware strategic roll-ups

Portfolio company M&A to major games consolidators

Page 19: Video games investment review

19

There are potential growth and consolidation opportunities*

Sector Mobile Social/Casual MMO Console Middleware Advertising

Opportunities Strategic M&A to leverage core brands, distribution platforms and technology

Avoid large, value destroying M&A

Commercial partnerships with games companies for licensed mobile and social-mobile games

Avoid standalone organic investment due to different core competencies

Invest in game fund

Strategic M&A to leverage core brands, distribution platforms and technology

Avoid large, value destroying M&A

Commercial partnerships with games companies for licensed social/casual games

Avoid standalone organic investment due to different core competencies

Invest in game fund

Strategic M&A to leverage core brands, distribution platforms and technology

Avoid large, value destroying M&A

Commercial partnerships with games companies for licensed MMO games

Avoid standalone organic investment due to different core competencies

Invest in game fund

Strategic review of underperforming assets with potential redeployment to online/mobile or disposals through M&A

Commercial partnerships with games companies for licensed console games

Limited organic investment

Small tactical M&A to deepen technology platform or cut costs

Invest in game fund

Small tactical M&A to deepen technology platform or cut costs

Avoid large, value destroying M&A

Limited organic investment

For major media, technology and telecoms companies

* Note: opportunities are for illustrative purposes only

Page 20: Video games investment review

20

1. Executive summary

a) Games global market overview i. Market segmentation ii. Global games revenue by sector (2006-2015F) iii. Online/mobile games revenue (2006-2015F)

b) Games global investment and M&A market overview i. Games private placements (1998-2011) ii. Games M&A (1998-2011) iii. Games sector private placements by sector (2011) iv. Games sector M&A by sector (2011) v. Games sector consolidation curve vi. Potential games market consolidators

c) Potential games sector investment/M&A opportunities** i. By sector (mobile, social/casual, MMO, console, middleware,

advertising) ii. By company type (major online/mobile games, major console

games, independent games, venture capital, private equity, major technology, media and telecoms)

* At 13th February 2012 ** For illustrative purposes only

2. Mobile/tablet sector review a) Global sector size

i. Mobile games revenue (2006-2015F) ii. Smartphone/tablet sales by OS (2010-2015F) iii. Mobile broadband subscribers (2006-2011F)

b) Sector segmentation c) Mobile user Lifetime Value economics d) Mobile user acquisition approach e) iOS vs Android

i. Total apps available ii. Games share of Top 300 apps (US paid and free) iii. Game genre share

f) DeNA and Gree analysis i. Revenue, EBITDA, users

g) Public company comparables including 2010, 2011(A/F) and 2012F Revenue and EBITDA multiples (Com2Us, DeNA, Gameloft, Gamevil, Glu Mobile, Gree, Mixi)

h) Sector M&A transactions (2010, 2011, 2012*) including target, acquirer and deal value (where available)

i) Sector private placement transactions (2010, 2011, 2012*) including target, acquirer and deal value (where available)

j) Potential sector investment/M&A opportunities** by company type (major online/mobile games, major console games, independent games, venture capital, private equity, major technology, media and telecoms)

Detailed contents (of full Games Investment Review and individual Sector Reviews)

Page 21: Video games investment review

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3. Social/casual sector review a) Sector size

i. Global social games revenue (2010-2014E) ii. Casual players vs payers male:female ratio iii. Social player age profile (UK)

b) Sector segmentation i. Top 40 Facebook social games company market share ii. Social network average developer revenue shares (Facebook,

Tencent, RenRen, Sina Weibo, Mixi) iii. Total games portfolio DAU vs average DAU per game (Top 40

Facebook games publishers) c) Zynga analysis

i. Major game DAU curves ii. Financials vs users

d) Paying players in social games analysis (average spend, share of revenue, share of paying players)

e) Value chain f) Tencent analysis

i. Games revenue ii. Chinese games market share

g) Public company comparables including 2010, 2011(A/F) and 2012F revenue and EBITDA multiples (Electronic Arts, G5 Entertainment, Gigamedia, Real Networks, Zynga, Asiasoft, Gamania, Kingsoft, Tencent)

h) Sector M&A transactions (2010, 2011, 2012*) including target, acquirer and deal value (where available)

i) Sector private placement transactions (2010, 2011, 2012*) including target, acquirer and deal value (where available)

j) Potential sector investment/M&A opportunities** by company type (major online/mobile games, major console games, independent games, venture capital, private equity, major technology, media and telecoms)

4. MMO sector review a) Sector market share

i. By game ii. By genre

b) Sector segmentation c) Nexon analysis

i. Revenue ii. Revenue vs EBITDA iii. Game franchise lifetime revenues iv. Regional revenues

d) Public company comparables including 2010, 2011(A/F) and 2012F revenue and EBITDA multiples (Activision Blizzard, ChangYou, Giant Interactive, NCSoft, Nexon, Netease, Perfect World, Shanda Games, Sohu, Tencent)

e) Sector M&A transactions (2010, 2011, 2012*) including target, acquirer and deal value (where available)

f) Sector private placement transactions (2010, 2011, 2012*) including target, acquirer and deal value (where available)

g) Potential sector investment/M&A opportunities** by company type (major online/mobile games, major console games, independent games, venture capital, private equity, major technology, media and telecoms)

Detailed contents (of full Games Investment Review and individual Sector Reviews)

* At 13th February 2012 ** For illustrative purposes only

Page 22: Video games investment review

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5. Console sector review a) Sector size

i. Global console games revenue by region (2006-2015F) b) Console games economics

i. Development costs vs sales ii. Major franchise sales iii. Publisher economics iv. Financing models

c) Value chain d) Sector segmentation e) Public company comparables including 2010, 2011(A/F) and 2012F

revenue and EBITDA multiples (Activision Blizzard, Electronic Arts, Gamestop, Take Two Interactive, THQ, Capcom, Konami, Namco Bandai, Nintendo, Sega Sammy, Square Enix, Atari, Game Group, Gameloft, Ubisoft)

f) Sector M&A transactions (2010, 2011, 2012*) including target, acquirer and deal value (where available)

g) Sector private placement transactions (2010, 2011, 2012*) including target, acquirer and deal value (where available)

h) Potential sector investment/M&A opportunities** by company type (major online/mobile games, major console games, independent games, venture capital, private equity, major technology, media and telecoms)

6. Games middleware sector review a) Value Chain b) Sector M&A transactions (2010, 2011, 2012*) including target,

acquirer and deal value (where available) c) Sector private placement transactions (2010, 2011, 2012*)

including target, acquirer and deal value (where available) d) Potential sector investment/M&A opportunities** by company type

(major online/mobile games, major console games, independent games, venture capital, private equity, major technology, media and telecoms)

7. Games advertising sector review a) Sector size

i. Global games advertising revenue (2006-2015F) b) Sector M&A transactions (2010, 2011, 2012*) including target,

acquirer and deal value (where available) c) Sector private placement transactions (2010, 2011, 2012*)

including target, acquirer and deal value (where available) d) Potential sector investment/M&A opportunities** by company type

(major online/mobile games, major console games, independent games, venture capital, private equity, major technology, media and telecoms)

* At 13th February 2012 ** For illustrative purposes only

Detailed contents (of full Games Investment Review and individual Sector Reviews)

Page 23: Video games investment review

Reports

Global Games Investment Review 2012 (102 pages) $999

(includes all individual Sector Reviews below)

Individual Sector Reviews

(dynamics, trends, 2012*/2011/2010 private placements and M&A, public company comparables*)

Mobile/Tablet Games Review 2012 (17 pages) $499

Social/Casual Games Review 2012 (18 pages) $499

MMO Games Review 2012 (12 pages) $499

Console Games Review 2012 (14 pages) $499

Games Middleware Review 2012 (8 pages) $249

Games Advertising Review 2012 (4 pages) $99

* As at 13th February 2012. No public company comparables for Middleware or Advertising

23

Full Games Investment Review and individual Sector Reviews

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Page 24: Video games investment review

24

About Digi-Capital

Page 25: Video games investment review

Digi-Capital is a digital investment bank focused on games • Focused on high growth games companies across America, Europe and Asia (China, Japan, South Korea) • Video games, digital media, digital services, mobile, software and media industry specialist • Regulated by the Financial Services Authority with US SEC Regulation 15a-6 coverage • UK and China, US operating relationship Managing high growth digital companies’ and investors’ investment banking needs • Fundraising/investment • Exit/sale • Merger • Acquisition • Venture partner • Restructuring Leveraging broad experience • Investment banking, software engineering and corporate Working with leading clients and high growth independents

25

About Digi-Capital

Global media Global media

Media, communications, tech focused private equity

Global growth private equity

Global video games Global online casual games

Mobile social games

Global online games Global business media

iPhone/iPad games and apps Cross-platform transmedia games Social games

Page 26: Video games investment review

Global Games Investment Review Executive Summary

2012

Contact: tim.merel digi-capital.com

© Digi-Capital Limited 2012 www.digi-capital.com

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