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Australian vocational education and training statistics

VET qualification completion rates

2017

National Centre for Vocational Education Research

HighlightsThe projected completion rates for nationally recognised vocational education and training (VET) qualifications commencing in 2017 are: 49.0% for all qualifications 49.9% for training package qualifications 40.4% for accredited qualifications 31.1% for qualifications at certificate I 58.9% for qualifications at diploma or above 50.0% for government-funded qualifications undertaken by domestic

students 42.9% for fee-for-service qualifications undertaken by domestic

students 70.1% for fee-for-service qualifications undertaken by international

students.Projected completion rates for VET qualifications commencing in 2017, i.e. the latest year of activity, are likely to be overstated due to high proportions of continuing students (refer to explanatory notes on page 11). Total VET data has only been reliably collected since 2015, which limits the use of mathematical techniques that rely on probabilities to calculate

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11

Contents

Introduction 4About this publication 4More information 4Tables 5Terms 8Explanatory notes 11

Tables

1 Projected qualification completion rates and subject load pass rates by type of training for total VET qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in 2015—17 5

2 Projected qualification completion rates and subject load pass rates qualification level for total VET qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in 2015—17 5

3 Projected qualification completion rates and subject load pass rates by state and territory in which the training was delivered for total VET qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in 2015—17 5

4 Projected qualification completion rates and subject load pass rates by provider type for total VET qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in 2015—17 5

5 Projected qualification completion rates and subject load pass rates by funding source for total VET qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in 2015—17 6

6 Projected qualification completion rates and subject load pass rates qualification level for government-funded VET qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in 2015—17 6

7 Projected qualification completion rates and subject load pass rates qualification level for domestic fee-for-service VET qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in 2015—17 6

8 Projected qualification completion rates and subject load pass rates qualification level for international fee-for-service VET qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in 2015—17 7

VET qualification completion rates 2017

Introduction

This publication presents completion rates for nationally recognised vocational education and training (VET) qualifications; namely training package qualifications and accredited qualifications, at certificate I or above.

About this publication A qualification completion rate is the proportion of VET qualifications started in a given year that will eventually be completed.Completion rates are simple to calculate with a cohort of students who start together in a very short qualification with a defined end date. The context in VET is, however, far more complex. Qualification lengths vary and may span several years, students commence at different times, and many study part-time. Waiting for all students to complete or ‘drop out’ of their training before calculating an actual completion rate gives a reliable answer but is somewhat impractical. For this reason, the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) calculates projected qualification completion rates for the three most recent years and reports the actual (or close to final) completion rates for prior years.Qualification completion rates are presented with subject load pass rates (for subjects associated with qualifications at certificate I or above) in each table of this publication. There are distinct differences between qualification completion and subject load pass rates and how these are calculated; as such, trends may differ both in size and direction. Subject load pass rates provide an indication of how a collection of students are progressing in a single year, as subjects are usually completed within the year. Qualification completion rates provide insight into the proportion of students that enrol in a qualification who complete their training and the proportion who do not.

More information Qualification completion rates shaded green are based on subpopulations of less than 1000 and should be interpreted with caution. (The subject load pass rates are not affected.) Completion rates previously published for a particular year are revised each year due to the reporting of additional qualification completions in the National VET Provider Collection and National VET in Schools Collection.For projected completion rates for various demographic and training attributes, please see the supporting data product available at <https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/publications/all-publications/vet-qualification-completion-rates-2017>. For more information, refer to the explanatory notes on page 11.

4 Australian vocational education and training statistics

Tables

Note: In the latest year of activity, the proportion of continuing students can be high, and this is likely to overstate the projected completion rate. Completion rates are projected for three years following qualification commencement. Actual completion rates become available in the fourth year. Any trend analysis must be done with caution due to the preliminary nature of the most recently submitted data.

Table 1 Projected qualification completion rates and subject load pass rates by type of training for total VET qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in 2015–17

Type of training Projected qualification completion rate (%) Subject load pass rate (%)2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017

Training package qualifications 41.9 43.5 49.9 81.3 80.5 82.2

Accredited qualifications 35.3 37.0 40.4 71.5 72.7 72.4

Total 41.2 42.9 49.0 80.4 79.8 81.4For explanatory notes see page 11.

Table 2 Projected qualification completion rates and subject load pass rates by level of education for total VET qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in 2015–17

Level of education Projected qualification completion rate (%) Subject load pass rate (%)2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017

Diploma or higher 36.5 44.8 58.9 72.1 71.8 77.3

Certificate IV 46.8 48.7 56.0 83.3 81.6 81.5

Certificate III 44.1 44.0 48.6 86.7 86.0 85.2

Certificate II 40.7 40.1 44.5 82.1 83.6 83.2

Certificate I 30.0 30.1 31.1 68.3 72.2 71.2


Table 3 Projected qualification completion rates and subject load pass rates by state/territory of delivery location for total VET qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in 2015–17

State/territory of delivery location

Projected qualification completion rate (%) Subject load pass rate (%)

2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017

Australia (onshore) 41.0 42.6 48.7 80.2 79.6 81.2 New South Wales 39.9 44.8 52.5 73.4 74.4 76.3

Victoria 41.6 38.5 44.6 80.1 80.4 80.5

Queensland 43.4 43.6 48.3 83.8 81.0 85.8

South Australia 38.0 37.9 44.4 88.4 86.1 87.2

Western Australia 38.1 46.1 51.1 85.3 84.3 83.9

Tasmania 38.6 37.9 57.0 84.2 83.7 83.6

Northern Territory 38.7 37.8 42.7 84.0 81.5 82.5

Australian Capital Territory 42.1 45.0 49.2 81.6 84.2 84.7

Other1 51.1 54.9 53.8 60.0 77.9 69.9

Offshore 63.5 74.7 74.2 94.0 94.3 93.5

Total 41.2 42.9 49.0 80.4 79.8 81.41. Other includes Other Australian territories and dependencies and where the state is Not known.For explanatory notes see page 11.Projected rates of completion may not be directly comparable across jurisdictions, with rates being impacted by differing jurisdictional enrolment practices and funding policies.


Table 4 Projected qualification completion rates and subject load pass rates by provider type for total VET qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in 2015–17

Provider type Projected qualification completion rate (%) Subject load pass rate (%)2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017

TAFE institutes 38.8 40.8 43.6 80.8 80.3 80.9

Universities 44.4 45.5 48.1 78.4 76.9 76.6

Schools 48.3 46.5 54.9 78.0 79.3 79.3

Community education providers 38.8 43.3 47.4 83.6 85.8 86.4

Enterprise providers 47.8 53.1 60.0 88.9 86.3 90.3

Private training providers 41.5 42.9 50.7 80.0 79.1 81.5

Total 41.2 42.9 49.0 80.4 79.8 81.4Projected rates of completion may not be directly comparable across provider types, with rates being impacted by differing enrolment practices and mix of qualifications and cohorts. For explanatory notes see page 11.

Table 5 Projected qualification completion rates and subject load pass rates by funding source for total VET qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in 2015–17

Funding source Projected qualification completion rate (%) Subject load pass rate (%)2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017

Government funding 45.9 45.9 50.0 83.3 83.0 83.0

Domestic fee-for-service funding 33.8 35.6 42.9 75.0 73.9 78.5

International fee-for-service funding 57.8 63.1 70.1 83.2 83.9 82.6


Table 6 Projected qualification completion rates and subject load pass rates by level of education for government-funded VET qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in 2015–17

Government-funded Projected qualification completion rate (%) Subject load pass rate (%)Level of education 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017


Certificate IV 46.7 48.3 53.9 82.4 80.4 81.9

Certificate III 49.9 48.3 53.0 86.3 86.2 85.8

Certificate II 42.0 43.5 46.3 80.8 81.5 81.2

Certificate I 36.6 35.0 36.4 67.9 70.4 68.7


Table 7 Projected qualification completion rates and subject load pass rates by level of education for domestic fee-for-service funded VET qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in 2015–17

Domestic fee-for-service Projected qualification completion rate (%) Subject load pass rate (%)Level of education 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017


Certificate IV 44.7 45.3 53.2 85.1 82.7 81.4

Certificate III 32.9 34.1 38.3 88.2 85.9 84.1

Certificate II 37.5 32.6 40.0 86.6 90.4 89.2

Certificate I 15.5 17.4 19.0 69.7 81.9 82.9



Table 8 Projected qualification completion rates and subject load pass rates by level of education for international fee-for-service funded VET qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in 2015–17

International fee-for-service Projected qualification completion rate (%) Subject load pass rate (%)Level of education 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017


Certificate IV 57.9 64.4 71.3 80.8 82.6 79.8

Certificate III 63.7 66.6 73.8 85.7 83.8 83.4

Certificate II 58.8 64.4 67.9 80.5 80.8 77.8

Certificate I 60.3 58.1 64.5 78.8 78.3 75.0



Terms

Information contained in this publication is, unless stated otherwise, derived from the National VET Provider Collection, which is compiled under the Australian Vocational Education and Training Management Information and Statistical Standard (AVETMISS). For further information go to <http://www.ncver.edu.au/avetmiss/21055.html>. For other terms and definitions, refer to the terms and definitions paper at https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/collections/students-and-courses-collection/total-vet-students-and-courses.Accredited qualifications refer to nationally recognised courses accredited by VET regulators. They are qualifications at certificate I level or above that are not specified in a national training package.Agreed nominal hours refer to the median value assigned to the unit of competency or accredited module by state and territory governments that nominally represents the anticipated hours of supervised learning and/or training deemed necessary to conduct training/learning and assessment activities associated with the unit of competency or accredited module.Australian Qualifications Framework (AQF) is a nationally consistent framework of credentials offered in post-compulsory education and training that covers qualifications from certificate I through to a doctoral degree. For more details on the AQF, see <http://www.aqf.edu.au>.Commonwealth and state funding is expenditure by the Commonwealth or state/territory governments for the delivery of vocational education and training.Community education providers are not-for-profit, community-based organisations with a primary focus on adult education. Community-based adult education delivers courses relating to leisure, personal and community development, employment skills, preparation for VET and nationally recognised programs of study.Domestic fee-for-service funding is the revenue provided by a student whose citizenship status is Australian, New Zealand or permanent resident for the purpose of undertaking education and training.Enrolment (program/subject) is the registration of a student at a training delivery location for the purpose of undertaking a program or subject.Enterprise providers are registered training organisations whose primary business is not the delivery of training and development.Field of education describes the broad area of study related to a program or subject in which a student is enrolled.Full-time student is a student whose program of study constitutes at least 75% of the normal full-time study load. The former Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEEWR) previously defined a full-time study load as 720 contact hours in a year. Therefore, any student undertaking 540 hours or more is regarded as a full-time student.Full year training equivalents (FYTEs) measures the training activity undertaken by a student on a full-time basis for one year. It is calculated based on reporting hours (1 FYTE = 720 hours).Funding source refers to the source of the funding for a qualification enrolment.Government funding relates to Commonwealth and state/territory funded activity delivered by registered training organisations (RTOs).


https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/collections/students-and-courses-collection/total-vet-students-and-courses

https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/collections/students-and-courses-collection/total-vet-students-and-courses

http://www.aqf.edu.au/

International fee-for-service funding is the revenue provided by a student who holds a student visa, or a temporary residency permit or who resides in an overseas country for the purpose of undertaking education and training.Level of Education in the VET sector refer to the Australian Qualifications Framework (AQF) levels of education from certificate I through to graduate diploma.

Nationally recognised program includes training package qualifications, accredited qualifications, training package skill sets and accredited courses.Nationally recognised training (NRT) leads to vocational qualifications and credentials that are recognised across Australia delivered by registered training organisations (RTOs). Nationally recognised training are listed on the National Training Register (training.gov.au).Private training providers refer to privately-owned and operated training providers that are registered by the Australian Skills Quality Authority, or a state/territory accrediting body. Provider type refers to the type of institution or organisation providing the training.Projected qualification completion rate is the percentage of qualifications that are estimated to be completed, according to statistical modelling developed by NCVER.Qualifications in the VET sector refer to the Australian Qualifications Framework (AQF) levels of education from certificate I through to graduate diploma.Qualification enrolment is the registration of a student at a training organisation for the purpose of undertaking a module, unit of competency or subject, which leads to or is part of a recognised qualification.Registered training organisations (RTOs) are training providers registered by the Australian Skills Quality Authority (ASQA) or, in some cases, a state or territory registering and accrediting body, to deliver training and/or conduct assessment and issue nationally recognised qualifications in accordance with the Australian Quality Training Framework or the VET Quality Framework.Schools are established or recognised under an Act of parliament for the purpose of providing courses of instruction in preschool, primary or secondary education.State/territory of delivery location is the state or territory relating to the specific training location where the activity was delivered. For online delivery it must be the location from which the training delivery is coordinated.State/territory of delivery location — offshore refers to training that was delivered by Australian providers to students located outside of Australia. State/territory of delivery location — Australia (onshore) refers to training that was delivered by Australian providers to students located in Australia. State/territory of delivery location — other refers to training that was delivered by Australian providers to students located in other Australian territories (for example, Christmas Island) and where the delivery location is ‘not known’. ‘Other’ also includes instances where the student received training that was delivered in more than one state or territory. Students are individuals who were enrolled in a subject or completed a qualification during the reporting period.Subject load pass rate is a calculation of the proportion of subjects that were successfully completed, based on the ratio of hours for Competency achieved/pass and Recognition of prior learning – granted) as a proportion of Competency achieved/pass, Competency not achieved/fail, Withdrawn/discontinued and Recognition of prior learning – granted.


Subject result refers to the outcome of a student’s participation in a unit of competency or module at the time of data submission.Total VET activity (TVA) all nationally recognised training (incorporating both government-funded and fee-for-service activity) delivered by registered training providers.Training packages are developed by Service Skills Organisations (formerly by Industry Skills Councils) to meet the training needs of an industry, or a group of industries. Each training package is made up of three components; units of competency, qualifications framework levels of education and assessment guidelines. For further information refer to <http://www.training.gov.au>.Training package qualifications are nationally endorsed qualifications specified in a national training package.Training providers are organisations that deliver VET qualifications. Training providers include private training providers, schools, community education providers, enterprise providers, TAFE institutes and universities.Unique student identifier (USI) uniquely identifies an individual who accesses vocational education and training over his or her lifetime.Universities include Australia’s universities, which have been established or recognised under state or territory legislation, except the Australian National University, which is constituted under an Act of the Australian Parliament. Vocational education and training (VET) is post-compulsory education and training that provides people with occupational or work-related knowledge and skills. VET also includes qualifications that provide the basis for subsequent vocational qualifications.


Explanatory notes

Scope

1 Activity covered in this publication includes nationally recognised VET delivered by registered training providers (RTOs): TAFE institutes universities community education providers enterprise providers private training providers schools Australian training providers delivering VET at overseas campuses.

2 This publication does not cover the following types of training: non-nationally recognised training credit transfer any activity where revenue was earned from another training providers in terms of sub-

contracted, auspicing, partnership or similar arrangements superseded training reported with national outcome identifier ‘61 — superseded

training’.

Data sources

3 The information contained in this publication is, unless otherwise stated, derived from the National VET Provider Collection and the National VET in Schools Collection. For the National VET Provider Collection, data can be reported to NCVER directly by the training providers or via state training authorities. For the National VET in Schools Collection, data are reported directly by the boards of studies and via the state training authorities to NCVER. These collections are compiled under the Australian Vocational Education and Training Management Information Statistical Standard (AVETMISS). For further information on AVETMISS, see <https://www.ncver.edu.au/rto-hub/avetmiss-for-vet-providers >.

4 The National VET Provider Collection collects enrolment and completion details of VET students and their qualifications. While the national database is essentially cross-sectional by year, there is enough information to match data over a number of years for individual VET students and the qualifications they undertake. Obtaining such a longitudinal dataset allows the use of mathematical techniques that rely on conditional probabilities to then calculate projected completion rates.

Methodology

5 A VET qualification completion rate is simply defined as the proportion of VET qualifications that commenced in a given year that are eventually completed. It requires knowledge about when a student commences a qualification and, ultimately, when a student exits (such as successfully completes or discontinues). Unfortunately, the time taken for a student to exit a VET qualification varies, in line with factors such as Australian Qualification Framework (AQF) level and mode of study. Consequently, for any given cohort of commencing students, there is a natural time lag before qualifications are completed and, consequently, a completion rate becomes ‘final’.


A further problem is that once qualifications finish (either completed or withdrawn), completions are not always reported immediately to the National VET Provider Collection, meaning that completions occurring in a given year might take another year or longer to be reported. Not surprisingly, the longer we wait, the more accurate the completion rate becomes, although, as time goes by, the data become less relevant, making the information less useful for performance evaluation. While the direct approach of tracking qualifications from start to finish is adequate for tracking historic observed actual rates of completion, the need remains to derive projected completion rates for the most recent years.

6 To overcome this issue, NCVER has derived a methodology for calculating projected qualification completion rates using data from the National VET Provider Collection (outlined in The likelihood of completing a VET qualification: a model-based approach, available at <https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/publications/all-publications/the-likelihood-of-completing-a-vet-qualification-a-model-based-approach>). This approach uses information about qualification enrolments over a three-year window (centred on the year of interest); together with the theory of absorbing Markov chains to derive the probability that a commencing VET qualification enrolment will eventually be completed. The advantage of Markov chain theory is that the probability of an entity ‘transitioning’ from one status to another in successive time periods is not dependent on past transitions. This means we can use knowledge of the ‘status’ of qualification enrolments across successive years to predict the qualification completion rate without having the full history of all qualification enrolments. Another advantage of the methodology is that it can be readily applied to subsets of the data based on student demographics or attributes of the training.

7 Further explanation of qualification completion rates, including recent methodological reviews can be found in the technical paper VET qualification completion rates: an evaluation of the current method (available at https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/publications/all-publications/vet-qualification-completion-rates-an-evaluation-of-the-current-method) and Total VET qualification completion rates (available at <https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/publications/all-publications/total-vet-program-completion-rates>).

8 Subject load pass rate is the ratio of hours (or full year training equivalent — FYTE) attributed to students who gained competencies/passed assessment in an assessable module or unit of competency to all students who were assessed and either passed, failed or withdrew. The calculation is based on the annual hours (or FYTEs) for each assessable module or unit of competency and includes competencies achieved/units passed through recognition of prior learning. The subject load pass rate is calculated using the following formula based on national outcome codes: (20 (Competency achieved/pass) + 51 (Recognition of prior learning - granted)) x100(20 (Competency achieved/pass) + 51 (Recognition of prior learning - granted) + 30 (Competency not achieved/fail) + 40 (Withdrawn))

Further explanation of subject load pass rates, including definition and methodology, can be found in the occasional paper Lifting the lid on completion rates in the VET sector: how they are defined and derived, available at <https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/publications/all-publications/lifting-the-lid-on-completion-rates-in-the-vet-sector-how-they-are-defined-and-derived>.

Definitions and assumptions


https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/publications/all-publications/vet-qualification-completion-rates-an-evaluation-of-the-current-method



9 It is necessary to define the four states of a VET qualification enrolment in terms of the enrolment and completion data in the longitudinal dataset (i.e. commencing, continuing, completing and dropped out of course). Details pertaining to how the student’s transitioning ‘status’ is defined are available in the following NCVER publications: The likelihood of completing a VET qualification: a model-based approach

<https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/publications/all-publications/the-likelihood-of-completing-a-vet-qualification-a-model-based-approach>.

VET qualification completion rates: an evaluation of the current method <https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/publications/all-publications/vet-qualification-completion-rates-an-evaluation-of-the-current-method>

Total VET qualification completion rates <https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/publications/all-publications/total-vet-program-completion-rates>.

Data quality and variability of completion rates

10 Qualification completion rates shaded green are based on subpopulations of less than 1000 and should be interpreted with caution. (The subject load pass rates are not affected.) The relatively high variability of these rates across years is due to the small subpopulations. Any subpopulation less than 50 in this publication or its supporting data product have been suppressed as a single or small number of qualification enrolments, this can have a dramatic effect on the calculated completion rate.

11 Projected program completion rates for the latest year of activity are likely to overstated due to the assumption of continuing students in the forecast calculations. In the Markov chain formula, used to calculate projected rates, students that commenced in the previous year that are continuing are included in the calculation. Over time, where there is no record of training activity in subsequent years, these students would be expected to be removed from calculations.


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