***Relations

Unq- Rel HighU.S.-Venezuela relations low in the past, but after Tracy the countries look to a positive future. Wroughton, 6-5-13, (Lesley, U.S., Venezuela to find ways to forge positive relations: Kerry, Reuters, JH, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/05/us-usa-venezuela-idUSBRE9541EG20130605)

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Wednesday he and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua had agreed to find new ways to forge positive relations between their two countries , long at political loggerheads.¶ Kerry welcomed as a "positive development" Venezuela's decision to release from prison an American filmmaker arrested in April on accusations of spying for Washington.¶ Washington has angered Venezuela's government by holding back recognition of new President Nicolas Maduro, the chosen successor of late socialist leader Hugo Chavez. ¶ "We agreed today, both of us, that we would like to see our countries find a new way forward, establish a more constructive and positive relationship , " Kerry said after a meeting with Jaua on the sidelines of a meeting of the Organization of American States in Antigua, Guatemala.¶ "To that end, we agreed today there will be an ongoing, continuing dialogue between the State Department and the Foreign Ministry, and we will try to set out an agenda by which we agree on things we can work together."¶ Kerry said he hoped the two countries could move quickly to appoint mutual ambassadors, which they have been without since 2010.¶ The fate of filmmaker Timothy Hallet Tracy had been seen as a litmus test of Maduro's intentions toward Washington following years of hostility from Chavez , who died of cancer in March. Venezuela announced on Wednesday it had deported Tracy.¶ During a trip to Latin America in early May, President Barack Obama called the accusations that Tracy was a spy "ridiculous," infuriating Venezuela 's government and reviving accusations of "imperialist meddling " that became routine during Chavez's polarizing 14-year rule. ¶ Former bus driver Maduro, who was elected president on April 14, even d escribed Obama as "the grand chief of devils" and issued a formal protest note . ¶ A U.S. official said this week that concerns remained about how deep post-election divisions in Venezuela would be resolved. The opposition in Venezuela has contested the close election and says Maduro's victory was fraudulent.

Relations between the U.S. and Venezuela normalizing in the Squo- by the end of the yearUPI, 6-11-13, (Venezuela sees normal U.S. relations this year, UPI.com, JH, http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2013/06/11/Venezuela-sees-normal-US-relations-this-year/UPI-72141370932200/)

Venezuela hopes to normalize relations with the United States and exchange ambassadors this year, the country's foreign minister said.¶ " We have agreed [with the United States] on a meeting point, and also that our relationship will be one of mutual respect so that we can appoint ambassadors later this year," Elias Jaua told Spanish newspaper El Pais.¶ The State Department had no immediate comment on Jaua's timetable.¶ U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry announced talks aimed at improving the two countries' relations Wednesday after meeting with Jaua for about 40 minutes on the sidelines of an Organization of American States meeting in Antigua, Guatemala.¶ " We agreed ... both of us, Venezuela and the United States, that we would like to see our countries find a new way forward, establish a more constructive and positive relationship ," Kerry said after the Jaua meeting.¶

U.S.-Venezuelan relations have been strained for years.¶ Kerry said he hoped the countries would "quickly move to the appointment of ambassadors."¶ Calixto Ortega, Venezuela's newly named charge d'affaires in Washington, who attended the Guatemala meeting, told The Wall Street Journal the two countries agreed on a plan to normalize ties and resume cooperation on counter-terrorism, anti-narcotics operations and energy.¶ Despite strained relations, the United States imported more than $50 billion in oil from Venezuela last year.¶ The Kerry-Jaua meeting took place at Venezuela's request, U.S. officials said.¶ Jaua told El Pais President Hugo Chavez had pushed for the normalization of relations

before he died of cancer March 5 and Chavez' successor, Nicolas Maduro, was carrying out Chavez' wishes.¶ Jaua stressed the relations would be "normalized," not "restored."¶ "We haven't broken relations," he told the newspaper.¶ Washington has not officially recognized Maduro's April 14 victory in a special presidential election.¶ When asked by El Pais if Caracas needed U.S. recognition to normalize relations, Jaua said, "No, it's not necessary," adding recognition or not, Venezuela has "a legitimate and constitutional government."¶ Jaua's Twitter account, however, posted a message a day after the Kerry meeting saying, "Finally Obama recognizes the legitimate government of Maduro," with a link to a Venezuelan news website story whose headline said the same words but ended

with a question mark.¶ Even after normalized relations, Washington intends to keep on pressing Caracas to ensure democracy and individual freedoms , a U.S. official told the Journal. ¶ Venezuelan opposition leader Henrique Capriles, who ran against Maduro, has refused to accept the election result, citing alleged fraud and

voter intimidation by the ruling Socialist party.¶ Chavez expelled U.S. Ambassador Patrick Duddy in 2008, accusing Washington of backing military officers plotting a coup against him. Chavez also recalled Venezuelan Ambassador Bernardo Alvarez.¶ The Kerry- Jaua meeting came hours after Venezuela released from jail and expelled a U.S. documentary filmmaker arrested more than a month earlier on charges of spying for Washington to undermine the newly elected Maduro government . ¶ The attorney for Tim Tracy, 35,

of West Hollywood, Calif., and Tracy's family denied the charges.¶ Ortega told the Journal Tracy was released as "a gesture from Venezuela ." ¶ "If someone wants to interpret that as an action that will have an impact on improving relations with the U.S., they are free to do so," she said.

Current U.S.-Venezuelan relations are becoming warmer; trade and other mutual interests Pineo and Powell, Ph.D. in History and research associate at COHA, 6-13-13, (Ronn and Laura, The Promise of New Beginning: A Thaw in US-Venezuelan Relations- Analysis, Eurasia Review, JH, http://www.eurasiareview.com/13062013-the-promise-of-new-beginning-a-thaw-in-us-venezuelan-relations-analysis/)

What makes this diplomatic initiative so encouraging is that until this development United States relations with President Hugo Chávez’s (and now

Nicolás Maduro’s) Venezuela too often seemed only to feature irate political blasts from both sides . As Chávez moved Venezuela to the left he alienated many in the country’s middle class who had originally supported him and deepened the hatred of the nation’s élites, people who had bitterly mistrusted him from the start. These groups had the ear of the George W. Bush administration, which increasingly hardened its opposition to the Chávez regime . Chávez seemed to delight in enflaming the situation, comparing Bush to the devil or a donkey, and demonizing the U nited S tates as a “terrorist state . ”¶ Relations deteriorated as debates grew more fierce and political tensions more unbridgeable. The United States funneled significant funding to the Venezuelan opposition to Chávez through the National Endowment for Democracy. When the coup attempt came in April 2002, the U nited S tates Ambassador Charles Samuel Shapiro met with the coup’s front man, Pedro Carmona, providing, in effective, de facto recognition of the coup government . In explaining the U.S. stance on the takeover, one Bush White House briefer challenged the notion that a fair democratic context could ever exist under Chávez, lecturing reporters that democracy means more than “just getting more votes than the other guy,” an odd argument for a Bush administration official to push.¶ The OAS, meeting in San José, Costa Rica, issued a declaration condemning the coup. The United States refused to join the collective statement. When the Carmona coup fell apart after 72 hours, the United States was left looking ridiculous and dangerously retrograde: isolated diplomatically and determined to turn back the clock to the bad old days of uncritical U.S. support for military coups. Diplomatic relations broke down between the nations, with ambassadors and each other’s officials’ recalled.¶ With the start of his administration in 2009, President Barack Obama had several chances to make a fresh start and mend relations. He met with Chávez in Port of Spain, Trinidad in April that year at the Summit of the Americas, calling for “a new chapter” in U.S.-Venezuelan relations . But after the meeting Obama seemed to lose any interest in closer ties, and never showed any real enthusiasm for L atin A merican issues . Obama appeared to be content to allow inertia to guide U.S. policy for the region. And so the Bush-era policies toward Venezuela rolled on , directionless, unexplored, and unreformed. Even today the two nations have no ambassador-level diplomatic representation.¶ Given this troubled past, the

potential return to diplomatic normalcy is very good news indeed. Despite everything, there remains a good foundation for relations for the two nations to build upon. Trade ties remain strong. Nearly half of Venezuela’s export trade and a third of import trade is with the United States. Venezuela is the 14th largest trading partner of the United States and the fourth largest supplier of imported oil.

Release of Tracy and meetings between officials show a rebound in relations between the U.S. and VenezuelaAP, 6-5-13 (Venezuela frees jailed U.S. filmmaker, USAToday, JH, http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/06/05/venezula-us-filmmaker-jailed-spy-freed/2394423/)

A U.S. filmmaker jailed for alleged espionage in Venezuela was expelled from the country and returned to the U nited S tates on Wednesday in a gesture that could signal a thaw in tense relations between the two countries. ¶ The release of Timothy Tracy , 35, occurred just hours before the top diplomats of both countries agreed during a meeting in Guatemala to discuss restoring ambassador-level relations . ¶ It was secured with the help of former U.S. Rep. William Delahunt, who has long worked to improve often strained U.S.-Venezuelan ties and was hired by Tracy's family as an attorney in the case.¶ "He's been informally advising us since pretty much the onset and we retained him last week," Tracy's sister, Tiffany Klaasen, said of Delahunt, a member of the U.S. delegation at the March funeral of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.¶ Both she and Delahunt also credited the U.S. State Department.¶ The U.S. government and friends had r idiculed the idea that Tracy was spying in Venezuela. His family said he had been making a documentary about the human costs of Venezuela's deeply polarized society.¶ Following the early morning expulsion, Secretary of State John Kerry met with Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua on the sidelines of a regional gathering in Guatemala and agreed, said Kerry, to "begin to change the dialogue between our countries and hopefully quickly move" to appoint ambassadors, which they have lacked in each other's capitals since 2010 .

U.S. giving Venezuela a chance after the Maduro electionsWP, 6-11-13 (Venezuela gets a life-life from the United States, Washington Post, JH, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-06-11/opinions/39896975_1_henrique-capriles-two-u-s-military-attaches-regional-group-unasur)

One government , however, has chosen to toss Mr. Maduro a lifeline: the United States . Last week Secretary of State John F. Kerry took time to meet Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua on the sidelines of an O rganization of A merican S tates meeting, then announced that the Obama administration would like to “find a new way forward” with the Maduro administration and “quickly move to the appointment of ambassadors.” Mr. Kerry even thanked Mr. Maduro for “taking steps toward this encounter ” — words that the state-run media trumpeted.

Whether or not Maduro will help U.S.-Venezuela relations irrelivent- they’ve cooperated for yearsJamison, 5-4-13 (Anne, Maduro Venezuela: He Won't Usher in a New Era of U.S.-Venezuela Relations, and That's OK, Policymic, JH, http://www.policymic.com/articles/40027/maduro-venezuela-he-won-t-usher-in-a-new-era-of-u-s--venezuela-relations-and-that-s-ok)

The April 19 inauguration of Nicolás Maduro, vice president of Venezuela under the recently deceased Hugo Chávez, has the world debating whether or not the self-proclaimed "son of Chávez" could lead to improved relations with the U nited

S tates. ¶ However, the question isn't as relevant as we are making it out to be. The U.S. and Venezuela have for years managed to cooperate economically , despite all the heated political rhetoric you read about in the media, and they'll likely continue to do so.

Alt CauseAlt causes to Venezuelan relation failure- Snowden SearchReuters 7-4 (Latin American countries call summit over diversion of Evo Morales's plane, 2013 www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/bolivia/10158924/Latin-American-countries-call-summit-over-diversion-of-Evo-Moraless-plane.html)CTL

Bolivia said Mr Morales was returning from Moscow on Tuesday when France and Portugal abruptly banned his plane from entering their airspace due to suspicions that Edward Snowden, wanted by Washington for leaking secrets, was onboard. Italy and Spain also banned the plane from their skies, it said.¶ The unusual treatment of the Bolivian military aircraft touched a sensitive nerve in the region, which has a history of US-backed coups. Regional leaders, particularly from the left, rallied behind Mr Morales, Bolivia's first

indigenous president and a former union leader of the country's coca farmers.¶ "(These are) vestiges of a colonialism that we thought were long over. We believe this constitutes not only the humiliation of a sister nation but of all South America," Argentine President Cristina

Kirchner said in a speech in Buenos Aires.¶ Heads of state in the 12-nation South American bloc Unasur denounced the "unfriendly and unjustifiable acts." The grouping issued a statement late on Wednesday saying the presidents of Ecuador, Bolivia, Venezuela, Argentina, Uruguay and Surinam had agreed to attend a summit in Cochabamba, Bolivia, on Thursday .¶ "Latin America demands an explanation," tweeted Ecuadorean leader Rafael Correa. "If what happened to Evo does not merit a Unasur summit, I don't know what does."¶ Dilma Rousseff, president of regional economic powerhouse Brazil, issued a statement repudiating the European countries that denied Mr

Morales access to their airspace based on what she called the "fanciful" notion that Mr Snowden might be on board.¶ The Chilean Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying it "lamented" what happened to Mr Morales and that more clarity was needed on the facts.¶ Much more blunt was the statement from Mexico's Congress condemning what it called the "disgraceful and discriminatory" treatment Mr Morales had received in Europe.¶ A spokesman at France's Foreign Ministry blamed the flap on "an administrative mishap," saying France never intended to ban Mr Morales from its airspace and that there were delays in getting confirmation that the plane had fly-over permits.¶ International agreements allow civilian airplanes to overfly countries without obtaining permission ahead of every flight. But state aircraft including Air Force One, the plane that carries the US president, must obtain clearance before they cross into foreign territory.¶ Government aircraft, whether carrying diplomats or missiles, always require approval before they can enter foreign airspace, legal experts said.¶ Bolivian officials were quick to accuse the United States of strong-arming the Europeans into denying access to their air space in an "act of intimidation" against Mr Morales for suggesting that while attending an energy conference in Moscow he would consider granting asylum to Snowden if requested. Morales said earlier this week no request had been made.¶ The White House declined to comment on the assertion that it was behind the plane scandal.¶ President Barack Obama has warned that giving Mr Snowden asylum would carry serious costs.

Venezuela-US relations fail- Venezuela Defends SnowdenWashington Post 7-2 (Venezuela’s President Maduro defends Edward Snowden: ‘He did not kill anyone’, 2013, www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jul/2/venezuelas-president-maduro-defends-edward-snowden/?page=all)CTLMeanwhile, Mr. Snowden’s increasingly desperate bids for asylum to escape prosecution on espionage charges could lead him back to America — specifically, South America.¶ Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro defended the accused leaker to Russian reporters Tuesday during a visit to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.¶ “He did not kill anyone and did not plant a bomb,” said Mr. Maduro, according to the Interfax news agency. “What he did was tell a great truth in an effort to prevent wars. He deserves protection under international and humanitarian law.”¶

Venezuela offers Snowden Asylum Express 7-2 (Edward Snowden search for asylum may hinge on Venezuela after Russia request withdrawn THE search for asylum for Edward Snowden may hinge on the Venezuelan President after the whistleblower withdrew his request to seek refuge in Russia today., 2013, www.express.co.uk/news/world/411945/Edward-Snowden-search-for-asylum-may-hinge-on-Venezuela-after-Russia-request-withdrawn)CTLThe former CIA analyst withdrew an application with the Kremlin after Vladimir Putin said he must stop leaking secrets if he wants his asylum request accepted.¶ And while Venezuela leader Nicolas Maduro said he had not received an application from Snowden, he dodged questions he would accept him into his country.¶ Mr Maduro also defended the National Security Agency (NSA) whistleblower, who had released information on US phone and internet surveillance on citizens.¶ After a meeting with Mr Putin in Moscow, Mr Maduro told reporters: "He did not kill anyone and did not plant a bomb. ¶ "What he did was tell a great truth in an effort to prevent wars. He deserves protection under international and humanitarian law."¶ The succesor to the late Hugo Chavez and Mr Putin did not refer to Snowden in their public statements¶ Russian paper Izvestia said the two presidents Mr Putin and Mr Maduro would discuss the topic of Snowden. ¶ Snowden had initially booked flights to Havana, Cuba, Caracas and Venezuela before departing from Hong Kong where he initially fled.¶ He is believed to be staying at the transit zone of Moswcow airport.¶ Snowden may also be able to seek refuge in Bolivia whose President Evo Morales had had said in a TV interview that they were willing to grant him asylum.¶ According to WikiLeaks, Snowden has so far applied for asylum in Venezuela, Bolivia and 18 other countries.

U.S. taking Snowden seriously- harming relations with VenezuelaRadojcic, 7-4-13, (Maja, Venezuela officially received extradition request from US- Maduro, InSerbia, JH, http://inserbia.info/news/2013/07/venezuela-officially-received-extradition-request-from-us-maduro/ )

Nicolas Maduro, president of Venezuela, told the TeleSUR channel that his office has received an extradition request for US intelligence leaker Edward Snowden from Washington. The request follows similar demands to Bolivia and Ecuador as the US is using at any opportunity to seize the whistleblower and bring him home for trial .¶ Early on Thursday, the US filed an extradition request for Snowden to Ecuador, which is sheltering WikiLeaks’s Julian Assange.

U.S.-Venezuelan relations high now, but if Venezuela harbors Snowden, it will lose one of its biggest trade partners.Negroponte, 7-2-13, (Diana Villiers, Consquences for Venezuela if Maduro offers asylum to Edward Snowden, Brookings, JH, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/up-front/posts/2013/07/02-snowden-venezuela-asylum-negroponte)

In appointing Ortega to Washington, bilateral relations had begun to improve. “Ortega has a lot of knowledge of U.S. society, and we know that

he will contribute a lot towards increasing dialogue…We want to have the best ties with all the world’s governments, and the U.S. government, but on the basis of respect. There can be no threats ,” said Maduro in his April 24th statement reported by www.venezuelanalysis.com. “I have decided to name Calixto Ortega so that dialogue with U.S. society can increase, with the universities, the academic world, the social and union world, the Afro-American community, the Latino community, Congress, senators, representatives, the economic, trade and energy sectors.” Ortega, the former Venezuelan minister to the Latin American parliament was well received at the State Department and hope exists in Washington that bilateral relations can improve on a steady and pragmatic basis.¶ However, flying Snowden to Venezuela and granting him asylum will blow apart the prospects for improved relations . The recently formed Continental Coalition of Social Movements in support of the Bolivarian Alliance (ALBA) may rejoice that Snowden can operate and speak freely in Venezuela, but the prospects of dialogue with U.S. economic, trade and energy sectors will fizzle out. Without U.S. support, few nations will step in to help meet Venezuela’s rising debt repayments and falling foreign reserves. In deciding whether to give Snowden a way out of Moscow, Maduro must balance the economic wellbeing of Venezuela against the short term notoriety of saving Snowden.

***Econ

Unq- Econ HighVenezuelan Economy high now- domestic stocks up 72%LAHT, 6-12-13, (Venezuela Stock Market up 72%, LAHT, JH, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=805249&CategoryId=10717)

Venezuela's stock market fell slightly in the week ending June 7 , as the index dropped 0.7% to close at 811,522.¶ In reality, only one stock lost ground, as Banco Provincial fell 1.82% to Bs. 270. Container-maker Envases Venezolanos rose 20% at Bs. 56, while Mercantil Servicios Financieros B was up 6.5% at Bs. 245. All other stocks were flat or did not trade in a week in which about only 125,000 shares traded hands.¶ The Venezuela Stock Market Index is now up 72.14% for the year to date, though only 17.49% in official rate US dollar terms because of an official February devaluation.

Shortage of hard currency in Venezuela means it is hard to buy food, let alone other necessities. Reuters, 7-4-13, (Christmas toys may be in short supply in Venezuela, Reuters, JH, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/07/03/us-venezuela-toys-idUKBRE96217S20130703)

A shortage of hard currency in recent months has left the OPEC nation struggling to ensure supplies of wheat flour, toilet paper, and even wine for church services . ¶ Toy importers have received only one month's worth of dollars from the country's currency control system so far this year. If the situation continues, they could fail to meet year-end demand, a toy industry group warned on Wednesday.¶ "We're at our limit. If the government doesn't solve this problem, there are not going to be toys during Christmas," said Juan Francisco Gonzalez of the industry group.¶ Venezuela's decade-long currency control, created by late socialist leader Hugo Chavez, has created a bottleneck for importers in the oil-dependent nation. ¶ A representative at the currency control agency said no one was available to comment.¶ Supporters of President Nicolas Maduro blame the product shortages on hoarding by unscrupulous merchants and biased media coverage that leads to panic buying.

Unq- Trade HighUS – Venezuelan trade high and increasing in the status quoVenezuelan Embassy 13 (Venezuelan Embassy to the US, US-Venezuelan trade in 2012, February, http://venezuela-us.org/live/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/2-15-2013-US-Venezuela-Trade.pdf)CTL

The commercial relationship between the U.S. ¶ and Venezuela is strong and continues to grow. ¶ Venezuela has been a reliable and valuable trade ¶ partner throughout the years, and in 2012, it was ¶ once again the U.S.’s third largest trading partner ¶ in Latin America and 14th largest in the world, ¶ in addition to being its fourth largest supplier of ¶ oil. Trade in goods reached over $56.3 billion last ¶ year, the fourth consecutive year of trade growth.¶ As Venezuela’s economy has grown, so has its ¶ demand for U.S. products. Also for the fourth year ¶ in a row, U.S. exports to Venezuela

increased. ¶ In 2012, the U.S. exported $17.6 billion in goods ¶ to Venezuela, a 43% increase over 2011 and a ¶ historical high. Fifteen states exported over $100 ¶ million in goods to Venezuela last year, led by ¶ Texas, Florida and Louisiana, which exported ¶ $6.9, $5.1 and $1.2 billion respectively. These ¶ goods were in industries as diverse as agriculture, ¶ machinery,

manufacturing, computer electronics ¶ and others. Trade between the two countries ¶ has helped maintain and create thousands of ¶ jobs, giving both economies a needed boost ¶ during the past several years of global recession.

***Oil

Unq- Decrease Oil Venezuela Increasing Natural Gas tradeVenezuelan Embassy 7-1-13 (Venezuelan Embassy to the US, Venezuela Proposes Fund for Gas Exporting Countries, Embassy of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, http://venezuela-us.org/2013/07/01/venezuela-proposes-fund-for-gas-exporting-countries/) CTL

One of the proposals put forth by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro during the second summit of Gas Exporting Countries Forum that starts today in Moscow will be the creation of a common financial entity for gas exporters to facilitate investments.¶ “It’s to get closer not just to the possibility of creating a gas bank, but also of helping our public companies and the most powerful businesses in our countries to join together in order to increase investments in the projects that are moving forward in each country,” Maduro said.¶ The Venezuelan president indicated that one of the principal objectives of this second summit should be consolidating the group of countries to facilitate meetings and joint work, and thus share experiences and policies that lead to better management of natural gas.¶ Maduro said that 15 presidents and heads of state are participating in the meeting, and will discuss the principles of world trade in gas, including shared mechanisms and a forum for addressing the long-term supply of financing for large-scale projects.¶ Another of the proposals by Venezuela has to do with scientific investigation to improve and make more transparent the processes of exploration and exploitation of natural gas.¶ “We dare to insist on the need to build a common institute for research, technological training, where we can share experiences and grow in terms of the production and commercialization of gas,” Maduro said.¶ He indicated that the proposals would be discussed in November of this year at the next meeting of the group of natural gas exporting countries.¶ The Gas Exporting Countries Forum, founded in Tehran in May 2001, includes Algeria, Bolivia, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. The observer states are Kazakhstan, Iraq, the Netherlands and Norway.

Venezuela no longer controls Oil – Production is fallingKrauss, NYT staff writer, 13 (Clifford, Dwindling Production Has Led to Lesser Role for Venezuela as Major Oil Power, March 9, accessed via Lexis Nexis on July 4, 2013 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/09/world/americas/venezuelas-role-as-oil-power-diminished.html)

President Hugo Chávez relished using Venezuela's oil wealth to project power internationally, nudging OPEC to raise oil prices when he could,

showering allies like Cuba and Nicaragua with subsidized oil shipments, and mocking the United States while selling it his crude.¶ But Mr. Chávez's death on Tuesday has had surprisingly little impact on global oil markets, highlighting how Venezuela's dwindling crude production and exports have undercut its global power in recent years.¶ International oil prices have barely moved since Mr. Chávez died. OPEC has decided to increase shipments to the United States and Europe this month, using oil from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. Oil company executives, long frustrated by Mr. Chávez's nationalizations, are voicing only tepid hopes that they could possibly return in full force to what was once one of their crown jewels.¶ Venezuela's annual oil production has declined since Mr. Chávez took office in 1999 by roughly a quarter, and oil exports have dropped by nearly a half, a major economic threat to a country that depends on oil for 95 percent of its exports and 45 percent of its federal budget revenues.¶ ''Venezuela's clout on OPEC and on world oil prices has been greatly diminished because of its inability to exploit its enormous resources,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, a consultancy. ''In the 1990s, their production was booming and they could thumb their nose at Saudi Arabia and get away with it, but now they have become OPEC's poor cousin.''¶ In a fundamental geopolitical turn, Venezuela now relies far more on the United States than the United States relies on Venezuela.¶ Venezuela depends on the United States to buy 40 percent of its exports because Gulf of Mexico refineries were designed to process low-quality Venezuelan and Mexican crudes that most refineries around the world cannot easily handle. But in recent years, the United States has been replacing its imports of Latin American crudes with oil from

Canadian oil sands fields, which is similarly heavy.¶ American imports of Venezuelan oil have declined to just under a million barrels a day, from 1.7 million barrels a day in 1997, according to the Energy Department. And while Venezuelan exports of oil are in decline, its dependency on American refineries for refined petroleum products has grown to nearly 200,000 barrels a day because of several recent Venezuelan refinery accidents.¶ Experts expect Venezuela to send barrels no longer needed in the United States to China, as payments in kind under oil-for-loans contracts. Venezuela's broken refinery sector has left shortages of gasoline and diesel in parts of Latin America, opening the door for valuable markets to American refiners.¶ Over his 14 years in power, Mr. Chávez relied heavily on oil revenues to finance his social programs. Energy experts say his gasoline subsidies doubled domestic consumption, cutting deeply into exports, but that his hostility to foreign investment and mismanagement of the state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela were the primary reasons for the steep decline in production.

Unq- Oil Trade nowNo inherency we already have oil tradeBBC News 13[bbc news, “chavez dies” march 6 2013, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-21680885]

First and foremost are the economic ties between the two nations. Despite the rhetorical animosity of the last decade, trade continued. The US is the largest recipient of Venezuelan oil - some 40% percent of Venezuelan oil exports come to the US (and oil makes up over 90% of the country's total exports).In turn, the US has continued to send machinery and cars, and even increased exports of natural gas and petroleum products to the South American nation.

Oil trade already happens Kruass 13[gordan, new York times, “Dwindling Production Has Led to Lesser Role for Venezuela as Major Oil Power”, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/09/world/americas/venezuelas-role-as-oil-power-diminished.html?_r=0]

American imports of Venezuelan oil have are to just under a million barrels a day, from 1.7 million barrels a day in 1997, according to the Energy Department. And while Venezuelan exports of oil are in decline, its dependency on American refineries for refined petroleum products has grown to nearly 200,000 barrels a day because of several recent Venezuelan refinery accidents.

Oil trade nowQuinn 13[Andrew, Reuters, “U.S. sanctions Venezuelan oil giant for Iran trade” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/24/us-iran-usa-sanctions-idUSTRE74N47R20110524]

Venezuela's oil-reliant economy ships roughly 45 percent of its crude to the United States, making up about 10 percent of U.S. imports. U.S. oil majors ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips fled the country in 2007 after Chavez nationalized their flagship projects as part of his push for a socialist state.

Dependence Bad- InfluenceForeign Oil Dependence increases the ability of Foreign Governments to continue to influence the USBrown, Ph.D in Economics, 13 (Stephen P.A. , Consequences of U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil, 4-4, http://nepinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Brown-Costs-of-Oil-Dependence1.pdf) CTLThe Council on Foreign Relations (2006) also identifies the possibility of oil revenues enabling ¶ oil-producing countries to oppose U.S. interests as a cost of U.S. dependence on imported oil. Iran, ¶ Libya, and Venezuela stand out in recent history as countries whose oil revenue has allowed them to ¶ pursue interests that the United States opposes. Nonetheless, the ability of a country to oppose U.S. ¶ interests depends more on its oil revenue than U.S. consumption of the marginal barrel of imported oil.¶ In that regard, oil’s fungibility limits the effectiveness of policy tools directed at a country’s oil ¶ exports. Restricting U.S. oil imports to target the actions of a few countries represents a rather blunt ¶ policy instrument that punishes all oil-exporting countries—not just those who oppose U.S. interests.¶ Other targeted sanctions directed at countries that behave badly may prove to be a more direct ¶ approach to foreign policy

***Drugs

SQ SolvesVenezuela Solves Drug Trade in the Status QuoVenezuelan Embassy 5-1-13 (Venezuelan Embassy to the US, Venezuela’s Anti-Drug efforts, http://venezuela-us.org/live/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/05-24-2013-Venezuelas-Anti-drug-Efforts.pdf, )CTL

Annual seizures of drugs in Venezuela hovered around 30-40 metric tons in the early 2000s, and increased in 2005 to ¶ reach a total of 77.53 tons. For the rest of the decade, they averaged about 60 tons annually and in 2011 and 2012 ¶ they equaled 42.41 tons and 45.08 tons

respectively.2¶ This shows that the country has taken appropriate action to ¶ halt the trafficking of drugs during the administrations of President Hugo Chávez and President

Nicolás Maduro.¶ The progress continues; in the first four months of 2013, 19.7 tons of illegal drugs were seized, according to the ONA. ¶ The Public Ministry coordinated the incineration of 8.2 tons of those substances (mainly cocaine and marijuana).¶ Last year, Venezuela was responsible for capturing 20 high-profile drug traffickers including individuals sought by ¶ the U.S. and Interpol such as Daniel “El Loco” Barrera. When Barrera was caught through a coordinated effort with ¶ Venezuela, Colombia, and the U.S., Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos said: “I want to thank the Venezuelan ¶ government, President (Hugo) Chavez and his team, for this great collaboration that has produced this capture.”3¶ Barrera and many other criminals have been sent abroad to face justice ¶ in Colombia and the U.S. This is just one of the ways that Venezuela has ¶ demonstrated its commitment to working with partners abroad to stop ¶ drug trafficking. The country maintains

54 anti-drug accords with 39 ¶ different countries.4¶ This provides the basis for an intensive and ongoing ¶ collaboration on efforts to stop the flow of drugs in the region and the world

No CoopDespite CO-OP on Drug War, Venezuela won’t cooperateNeuman, Staff Writer for the NYT, 12 (William, Venezuela nabs drug lord in operation run from U.S., September 24, Accessed via Lexis Nexis)CTL

To President Hugo Chávez, the United States has long been The Enemy, the imperialist power that seeks to undermine his socialist-inspired revolution, that

plots to oust him from office - and that he loves to taunt.¶ That is what made it so surprising when Venezuela's national drug police took part in an unlikely international operation last week to capture one of South America's most wanted drug lords on Venezuelan soil. Not only

did it involve U.S. drug agents and the C.I.A., but it was directed from Washington.¶ The arrest of the drug lord, Daniel Barrera, known as El Loco,

was the result of a complex four-nation endeavor. Colombian police and intelligence officials camped out in a Washington hotel room with their U.S. counterparts, monitoring electronic surveillance of South American phone calls. The C.I.A., the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration and the British intelligence agency MI6 contributed expertise.¶ The officials in the hotel room were in contact with agents in Venezuela, who swooped in to arrest Mr. Barrera as he chatted on a pay phone in front of a church in the city of San Cristóbal, near the border with Colombia.¶ But while Venezuelan officials boasted of having caught the man President Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia called ''the last of the great kingpins,'' they were not exactly predicting a new era of cooperation with Washington.¶ ''Venezuela is no longer a colony of the United States,'' Justice Minister Tarek El Aissami said Wednesday at a news conference in Caracas that was partly an announcement of the arrest of the trafficking suspect and partly an occasion to lash out at the United States.

***Terrorism

Supports TerrorismVenezuela Supports TerroristRobinson, Senior Policy Analyst at RAND, 03 (Linda, Terror Close to HomeIn oil-rich Venezuela, a volatile leader befriends bad actors from the Mideast, Colombia, and Cuba, 9-28, http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/031006/6venezuela_2.htm) CTL

Sympathy. Latin America’s Arab communities¶ are also becoming centers for terrorist ¶ sympathizers. A Venezuelan analyst who recently¶ visited Margarita Island, a free zone on the north¶ coast of Venezuela run largely by Arab merchants¶ from Lebanon and Iran, described the Venezuelan Arab Friendship Association as a “fortress” with¶ armed guards outside. A U.S. official says the¶ association has been long known as a location of¶ illicit activities. In addition, support “cells” for the¶ groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and Islamiyya al¶ Gammat are active on Margarita,

according to¶ Gen. James Hill, the head of the U.S. Southern¶ Command. In a speech last month, Hill said:¶ “These groups generate funds through money¶ laundering, drug trafficking, or arms deals and¶ make millions of dollars every year via their ¶ multiple illicit activities. These

logistic cells reach¶ back to the Middle East.” ¶ Venezuela’s support for terrorist organizations¶ isn’t limited to those based in Lebanon or Egypt.¶ Colombia’s complaints that Venezuela is actively¶ aiding two Colombian armed groups on the U.S.¶ State Department’s terrorist list - the FARC and¶ the ELN - have been met by heated Venezuelan¶ denials. But U.S. News has obtained detailed¶ information demonstrating that camps used by the¶ Colombian rebels exist inside Venezuela; maps¶ actually pinpoint the location of the camps, and¶ firsthand reports describe visits by Venezuelan¶ officials. The armed Colombian groups, though¶ they have waged no attacks on U.S. soil, are¶ among the most active terrorist groups in the¶ world, and several of their leaders have been¶ indicted in the United States for the killings and¶ kidnappings of Americans and for drug ¶ trafficking

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