veien mot 2030 or long term impact of covid-19 …...5.3b 6.1b 6.9b 7.8b onetime education is...

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Dr. Jan-Martin Lowendahl

[email protected]

Veien mot 2030

Or

Long Term Impact of COVID-19 and

Preparing for other Gray Rhinos in HE

Or

Preparing for the Next Normal by Digitally

Adapting Business Models in Higher Education

1 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY I © 2020 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Jobs UClassic U

Scholar U Your Own U

Whereto? Higher Education Ecosystem 2030 Scenarios

Source: Gartner

ID: 407412

InformalFormal

Disruptive

Sustaining

Credential Type

AI

Imp

act

on

Wo

rk

Source: Higher Education Ecosystem 2030: Planning in the Face of Radical Uncertainty (G00407388)


Who Benefits and Who Pays

Society and Individual

Individual and Society

Individual and Employer

Employer and Individual

Scholar U

Classic U

Your Own U

Jobs U

InformalFormal

Disruptive

SustainingA

I Im

pact

Credential


From where? Higher Education "Business Model" Framework

Perceived Quality

Everybody's U

Scale

Collectively Defined

Inclusive

Personally Defined

Exclusive

All About UMe, Not U

Only Us U

Oxford

Community

College

Wharton

U.K. Open

University

Source: Four 'Business Model' Scenarios for Higher Education: An Introduction to Strategic Planning Through Storytelling (G00167364)


Your U?From 20xx to 20yy

Perceived Quality

Everybody's U

Scale

Collectively Defined

Inclusive

Personally Defined

Exclusive

All About UMe, Not U

Only Us U

A

You are

here

You want

to be here

B

Competitor

ChallengerOptional plot: 1

From-To

UW-ACC

Online-MBA

B Program x

B MBAB MACCB MSTAX

B MBAiAIE

EWU-MBA

Online-MBACAA

5 © 2020 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates.

The Education Product Portfolio – Degree of D

Online Linear Online CBEMicro

Courses

Traditional

On-Premise

Instructional

Continuity

Micro

Assessment

Face-to-Face Fully Adaptive

100% “Seat Time” 0% “Seat Time”“Product Portfolio”

Digitally

Enhanced

Business Model Barrier

Business Model Range

B MBAiAIEB MACC B MSTAX

Individual

Program

Position B Alumni Courses

Digital Enablement Digital Optimization Digital Transformation

Analog Digitization Digitalization

Key Strategy: Working Capital of Capabilties


UCF’s Adaptive “Product Portfolio”

100% “Seat Time” 0% “Seat Time”

Face-to-Face

Courses

(Digitally Enhanced)

Blended

Courses

(Mixed Modality)

Lecture Capture

Courses

(Fully Online)

Web

Courses

(Fully Online)

Fully Online

Programs

“Not everything can be done online ... but more than you think”

Student Credit Hours (SCH)

Face-to-Face

Other

Video

Blended (Web)

Online (Web)

Adaptive

100,000

900,000

1,700,000

With Online Learning:

68,500 Students (+24,500)

Without Online Learning:

44,000 Students

47%Online

and Mixed

Source: Navigating Change — The CIO’s Role in Creating an Adaptive Higher Education Institution (G00466061)


Sustainable funding – The importance of the SCH cost!

Δ per SCH

online vs f-f

Δ per SCH

mixed mode vs f-f

Online Operations + $14 + $14

Instructional Delivery - $67 - $51

Physical Operations & Management - $13 - $8

Student support 0 0

Student acquisition 0 0

Total difference in cost per SCH - $66 - $46

Online vs. face-to-face up to 32% lower marginal cost per SCH

mixed mode vs. face-to-face up to 22% lower marginal cost per SCH

Personnel, licenses

& technical costs

Average class size

Avoid construction

& maintenance

Same delivery

Same process

Source: Case Study: Digital Transformation Journey (University of Central Florida) (G00721951)


Southern New Hampshire University From To

“CIO” Thomas Dionisio ’76Executive Vice President, Technology and Transformation

“we can’t get the cost out of the system unless we can use AI

to drive, to do intelligent assessment and intelligent advising”

“we’re not a technology company but everything we do is

enabled by technology”

“we are driving an enormous amount of change very quickly

with success and we're disrupting not only ourselves but the

industry.”

“It's all about breaking it down, making it incredibly flexible and

more granular, allowing us to target the product or the

individual to assemble exactly what it is they want.”

“the learning experience today is very much half duplex … As

in stuff in, I wait, I get stuff back”

“control your own destiny before somebody else does”

Goal:

▪ Scale: 250,000 (300,000) students by 2022 (from <50 in 1932)

▪ Costs: All you can eat education for 1000-2500 USD/year

▪ Quality: Accredited degrees/Employer acceptance

Strategies to scale:

▪ Independent & Innovative

▪ Business units with separate goals: CfA, B2B, Refugee, LRNG

▪ Ecosystem approach: SalesForce/Trailhead, LRNG “Community Impact Arm”

▪ Creating the Sandbox ColLABorative — “Front Half of The Hype Cycle”

▪ Modular

▪ “Combinatorial education” to personalize

▪ IT as a center of integration

▪ Speed

▪ B2B CBE built in 45 days

▪ Decision to contract in 60 days

▪ Salesforce project in 9 months for 7 core processes

▪ 100% data in cloud 2019

Outcomes:

▪ 136 000 students

▪ Cost for CBE now start at 5000 USD/year

Scaling a University - From Entrepreneurial Growth to Intentional Scaling

President Paul LeBlanc on CfA:

“we've always aimed […] it at the bottom 10% of wage

earners in very large companies”

Source: Scaling Higher Education — Lessons Learned From 2 Case Examples (G00389435)

https://www.vantagetcg.com/southern-new-hampshire-university-sandbox-collaborative/


Three Dimensions of the Next Normal

Business Model(s)

Product Portfolio

Degree of Digitization-Digitalization


Gray Rhinos – World Economic Forum Risk Landscape 2020

https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_the_next_outbreak_we_r

e_not_ready?language=en

https://www.ted.com/talks/michele_wucker_why_we_ignore_obvious_problems_and_how_to_act_on_them?language=en

https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-

report-2020

https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_the_next_outbreak_we_re_not_ready?language=en

https://www.ted.com/talks/michele_wucker_why_we_ignore_obvious_problems_and_how_to_act_on_them?language=en

https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2020

11 © 2019 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

INTERNAL or RESTRICTED

Half-Life of Skills Requires HE to Pace-Layer the Curriculum

Skills for Innovation

Skills for Differentiation

Skills for Life

-

+H

alf-L

ife

+

-

Tim

ing

Mathematics

Critical Thinking

Periodic Table

Thermodynamics

Antibody Testing Platform

CRISPR-CAS9 Techniques

By 2024, the decreasing half-life of skills will force 50% of higher education institutions to adopt a pace-layering approach to course creation for 100% of the course catalog. Predicts 2020: Education Needs to Brace for Changes to the World of Work (G00453859)

“AI skills are needed right now in the workplace, but it could be 2025 before many college students will find an AI course in their school syllabus. Higher education institutions, after all, refresh their curriculum only every two to six years, according to the CFoW study… according to the study, roughly 6 in 10 companies are beginning to bear the burden of learning for their employees…”Gary Beach, Columnist, WSJ and CIO Journal, Author, U.S. Technology Skills Gap


Adapting For Future Turns: A Simple Higher Education "Business Opportunity" Framework

Skills

Timing

Specific

VeryImportant

General

NotImportant

WikiPedia

Audible.com

Podcasts

Chatbots

LinkedIn Learning

(Lynda.com)

Masterclass.com

Liberal Arts/

Classic U

General Professional

Development

License Renewal

~$ 590 billion

(2013)

~$ 584 billion

(16/17)

Just-In-Case

(for life…)Keeping Current

Just-In-TimeAutodidact

Consistent, Rule

SpeedFlexible, Contextual

Combinative

Optionality

Source: A Simple Higher Education ‘Business Opportunity’ Framework for Continuous Learning (G00718926)

By 2023, lifelong education will surpass one-time education for at least 10% of institutions worldwide.Predicts 2019: Higher Education — Digital Transformation in Progress (G00373805)


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Millions

Primary Secondary Tertiary

The Really Big Picture: Real Demographic Data

Source: World Bank

7,358Total Population

723582

2131,518

Education Enrollment

0,623

3,686


Today’s Education Needs — Linear Logics and Cohort KPIs

UNESCO (2016): By 2030, recruit 68.8 million primary/secondary teachers

— backlog of about 2/3rds of adults with no secondary educationSource: WorldBank EduStats

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Millions

723

Primary Enrollment

Secondary Enrollment

Tertiary Enrollment

582

213

~291

KPI: ~50%

KPI: >90%

KPI: 100%


In 2020, AI becomes a positive net job

motivator, creating 2.3 million jobs,

while eliminating only 1.8 million jobs.

Analysis by: Svetlana Sicular, John-David Lovelock

“Top Strategic Predictions for 2018 and Beyond: Pace Yourself, for Sanity’s Sake,” (G00340316)

4.1 million (re) learners?“Double Coincidence of Wants”


Gartner: AI Will Be a Net Job Creator

-1,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000 Loss Gain

Net Re-Learning

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

In 2020, AI becomes a positive net job motivator, creating

2.3 million jobs while only eliminating 1.8 million jobs.

= 4.1 Million Re-learners

7.1 Million

Re-learners

UNE: https://studyat.une.edu.au/futureofwork

Faethm: https://faethm.ai/ (Job Corridor)

Cognizant: https://www.cognizant.com/jobs-of-the-future-index

Osborne/Frey: https://willrobotstakemyjob.com

McKinsey: https://ig.ft.com/can-a-robot-do-your-job

Pearson: https://futureskills.pearson.com/explore

https://studyat.une.edu.au/futureofwork

https://faethm.ai/

https://www.cognizant.com/jobs-of-the-future-index

https://willrobotstakemyjob.com/

https://ig.ft.com/can-a-robot-do-your-job

https://futureskills.pearson.com/explore


Tomorrows Education Needs —Exponential Logic and Competency KPIs?

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: World Bank EdStats, UN, Angel Calderon RMIT

1 Billion

660 Million

World Population 9.8B9.2B8.6B

414 Million

7.8B6.9B6.1B5.3B

Onetime Education Is

Demographics Sensitive

Lifelong Education

Is “Skill” Sensitive

9.8%

7.9%

2.9%

10.2%

7.2%

4.8%

213 Million

Primary

Population

Secondary

Population

Tertiary

Population


Jobs UClassic U

Scholar U Your Own U

Higher Education Ecosystem 2030 Scenarios

Source: Gartner

ID: 407412

InformalFormal

Disruptive

Sustaining

Credential Type

AI

Imp

act

on

Wo

rk

Source: Higher Education Ecosystem 2030: Planning in the Face of Radical Uncertainty (G00407388)

veien mot 2030 or long term impact of covid-19 …...5.3b 6.1b 6.9b 7.8b onetime education is...

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