2018-06-27

1

Vehicle Electrification in BCDr. Curran Crawford

Clean Energy BC - Global Electrification Summit

June 2018, Vancouver BC

Outline

• Context

• BC all-sector, on-road transport to 2040• Baseline electrification scenario

• Crash-program electrification scenario

• Class 8 vehicle options

1

2018-06-27

2

Context

2

Fugitive Sources, 8.1%

INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES AND PRODUCT USE, 6.1%

AGRICULTURE, 3.7%

WASTE, 6.7%

Afforestation and Deforestation, 4.1%

Stationary Combustion Sources, 31.0%

Non-road transport, 12.6%

Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles, 5.9%

Light-Duty Gasoline Trucks, 7.3%

Heavy-Duty Gasoline Vehicles, 3.1%

Motorcycles, 0.0%

Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles, 0.2%

Light-Duty Diesel Trucks, 0.1%

Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles, 10.9%

Chart Title

On-road transport

BC has a large on-road transport GHG footprint

3

2018-06-27

3

In BC, we plug into WECC• Emissions are source dependent

• Complicated market operations• Energy trades• Ramping• Regulation• Intertie constraints

• Ongoing research• Demand response• Renewables penetration

• BC Hydro• Domestic 30 t CO2e/GWh average

4

BC On-road Transport Electrification Scenarios

5

2018-06-27

4

Project fleet sales based on fitting GDP-sales relation to obtain banded stock projections

6

ICEs will continue to improve: assume we meet US EIA targets & regulations in Canada/US

7

2018-06-27

5

Fit sales adoption curves to 2030 BC Gov’t & McKinsey targets/projections

• 2030 passenger sales share• Agrees with REPAC model @ 30%

• Heavy duty fleet aggregation• Should separate by trip length, etc.

• Disruptors?• Mode shifts

• Commuting distances

• km/yr and t-km/yr travelled• Internet shopping deliveries

• Ride sharing/hailing

1) Baseline scenario

2) Crash program scenario: 99% share in 2032to meet 2030 GHG transport sector target

In the baseline scenario, medium duty (MT) trucks play a key role due to MT fleet size

9

2018-06-27

6

The baseline scenario is slow to get going, but important sectors emerge

10

Nominal Upper bound

Bad news: we are going to miss our GHG targets…

11

2018-06-27

7

The 2030 crash program (solved for 2032 99% sales share) is much more impactful

12

Nominal Upper bound

And sets the stage for deep GHG reductions

13

2018-06-27

8

Class 8 Vehicle Drivetrain Options

14

Vancouver Fraser Port Authority, Container Truck GPS Data: 1598 trucks Nov. 2016

15

• Class 8 lumping too coarse• Drayage vs. long-haul routes

• Elevation changes

• City vs. highway conditions

• Electric drivetrain suitability• Battery cost/weight

• Plug-in hybrid options

2018-06-27

9

Selected six protoypical routes selected, including elevation and real speeds

16

Legend

Short distance drayage (SDD)

Long distance drayage (LDD)

Regional Hwy (RH)

Flat Hwy (FH) (Vancouver-Seattle)

Hill Climb Hwy 1 (Port Coquitlam- Tappen)

Hill Climb Hwy 2 (Calgary-Surrey)

Catenary Route

Various drivetrain options & models, including battery sizing assumptions

17

A) Conventional drivetrains (Natural gas or diesel) B) Battery elctric drivetrains

C) Parallel hybrid (Natural gas or diesel) D) Series hybrid (Natural gas or diesel)

E) Parallel hybrid Catenary (Natural gas or diesel) F) Series hybrid Catenary (Natural gas or diesel)

G) Parallel hybrid FC H) Series hybrid FC

2018-06-27

10

Various drivetrain options & models, including battery sizing assumptions

18

A) Conventional drivetrains (Natural gas or diesel) B) Battery elctric drivetrains

C) Parallel hybrid (Natural gas or diesel) D) Series hybrid (Natural gas or diesel)

E) Parallel hybrid Catenary (Natural gas or diesel) F) Series hybrid Catenary (Natural gas or diesel)

G) Parallel hybrid FC H) Series hybrid FC

Range of fuel & component scenarios

• High-carbon fuel scenario• Standard diesel, CNG

• H2 from methane reforming

• WECC electricity mix

• Low-carbon fuel scenario• 20% biodiesel

• Landfill R-CNG

• H2 from electrolysis in BC

• BC Hydro electricity

• Variations in expected drivetrain component efficiencies

• Cost data • Fuel

• O&M• Differential with technology

• Infrastructure fleet amortization• CNG fueling station

• H2 fueling station

• Catenary

• 60 kW charging station for parallel hybrid

• 500 kW charging station for series hybrid

19

2018-06-27

11

20

Best-case low-carbon CO2 eq (g/tkm)

Worst-case high-carbon CO2 eq (g/tkm)

Ongoing work

• Final costs & sensitivity study• Spoiler alert

• Diesel & CNG win on total costs

• Plug-in (catenary) parallel hybrid diesel later

• Infrastructure are key – catenary looks quite good if you’re not the one paying for it!

• Market penetration analysis• Input drivetrain performances & costs into CIMS

• Simulate up-take for heavy-duty market segments• Differentiate by trip length, etc.

• Refine rollout to 2040/2050 for heavy duty• Identify key electrification target segments

• Electrical & fuel usage

21

2018-06-27

12

Questions?

• Dr. Curran CrawfordE-mail: curranc@uvic.ca

• BC-wide electrification• Dr. Julian Julian-Alberto Fernandez-Orjuela

• Dr. Ned Djilali

• Class 8 vehicles study• Mojtaba Ladjevardi

• Dr. Jonn Axsen

22

Component sizing assumptions required• Commercially available CNG engine

• 11.9 L Cummins comparatively undersized

• Plug-in parallel combustion hybrids• Battery provides power below 20% ICE engine power

• Parallel fuel cell hybrid• < 30 kW only battery power to avoid part-load fuel cell operation

• Series combustion & fuel cell hybrids• Fixed (larger, standard) ICE engines• Sized to maintain minimum battery SOC @ end of cycle• Leads to larger battery packs for series compared to parallel ICE hybrids

• Catenary• Fully electric operation with battery charging depending on road load

23