van aalst m_20150708_1730_upmc_jussieu_-_room_101
TRANSCRIPT
Our common Future under Climate Change Session 2233, Wednesday 8 July 17.30, Paris, France
Maarten van Aalst Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre &
International Research Institute for Climate & Society, Columbia University
Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction bridging science, policy and practice
climate and disasters
understanding risk
In many parts of the world communities are already noticing
changes to climate and weather patters, or ‘funny weather’
Local experts
Example (Sri Lanka): rainfall change
Long term average New record highs
IPCC Special Report
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters
to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)
4
Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity and
frequency of climate events increases disaster risk
6
Disaster risk management and climate change adaptation can influence the degree to which extreme events translate into impacts and disasters
7
Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity and frequency of climate events increases disaster risk
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
SOCIOECONOMIC PROCESSES
Socioeconomic Pathways
Adaptation and Mitigation Actions
Governance
CLIMATE
Natural Variability
Anthropogenic Climate Change
RISK Hazards
Exposure
Vulnerability
IMPACTS
EMISSIONS and Land-use
Change
Solutions
managing risk
Managing the risks: heat waves in Europe
20
Risk Factors lack of access to
cooling
age
pre-existing health problems poverty and isolation
infrastructure
Risk Management/ Adaptation cooling in public
facilities
warning systems
social care networks urban green space
changes in urban infrastructure
France, August 2003 (over 14,000 dead)
Projected: likely increase in heat wave frequency and very likely
increase in warm days and nights across Europe
Managing the risks: drought in the context of food
security in West Africa
Risk Factors more variable rain population growth ecosystem degradation poor health and education systems
Projected: low confidence in drought projections for West Africa 24
Risk Management/ Adaptation improved water
management
sustainable farming practice
drought-resistant crops
drought
forecasting
• Response: prepare for
more but also smarter
response to extremes
• Risk reduction: invest in
resilience before disasters
happen
Policy coherence?
Key policy frameworks to be agreed the coming
year…
• Disaster Risk Reduction: HFA-II (March 2015, Sendai)
• Sustainable Development Goals (Sept 2015, New York)
+ Financing for Development (July 2015, Addis)
• UNFCCC COP-21 (December 2015, Paris)
• World Humanitarian Summit (May 2016, Istanbul)
… are they connected??
Setting standards
www.climatecentre.org/minimumsta
ndards
Smarter response:
bridging timescales
Early Warning, Early Action
Routinely taking action
before a disaster or
health emergency
happens,
making full use of
scientific information
on all timescales
Seasonal rainfall forecast issued October
2010 for upcoming November-January
Areas that experienced flooding or drought
that November-January
Addressing incentives,
e.g. financing
communication
is key
LET’S
Namibia
Washington, DC
With IPCC leadership, including
chairman Pachauri
Investing in innovation,
knowledge management,
learning and uptake
Many exciting initiatives, with combination of
investment, innovation and influence.g.:
• BRACED (DfID)
• IFRC One Billion Coalition
• Partners for Resilience
• Rockefeller Foundation Global Resilience Partnership
• World Bank GFDRR, PPCR etc.
• UN SG Resilience Initiative
• PLACARD
• etc. etc.
… are they connected??
sample
More resources
www.climatecentre.org
www.BRACED.org
@PLACARD_EU
Maarten van Aalst