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“Valuing” the Social Sciences. An agenda for hard times

eSocSci Seminar Series31 October 2014

Peter Davis

University of Aucklandpb.davis@auckland.ac.nzand COMPASS Research Centrewww.compass.auckland.ac.nz

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Outline

Are these “hard times”?

Making knowledge claims

Improving our methodsInference by design

Making it count

Assessing and increasing impact

Concluding thoughts“Public” social science

A professionalising agenda 2

“Straws in the wind”• Political

– Public statements favouring STEM (Minister)– (Temporary?) Discontinuation of “Health and Society” strand

within MBIE (previously MSI, FoRST)

• Research funding– Ferociously competitive Marsden– HRC with greater clinical and biomedical emphasis– Complex selection processes (NSC, CoREs)

• Public sector– Very tight public sector (e.g. contracts)– Greatly reduced intake to COMPASS methods school

10 National Science Challenges

Some Social Science Aspect1. Ageing well2. Better start3. Healthier lives4. High-value nutrition5. Technological innovation

for growth

Limited Social Science Aspect1. Biological heritage2. Land and water3. Sustainable seas4. Antarctica5. Resilience to natural

disasters

National Science Foundation, 2012

World Economic Forum (Davos) – Top 10 Global Risks, 2014

1. Fiscal crises2. Unemployment3. Water crises4. Income disparity5. Climate change

6. Extreme weather7. Governance failure8. Food crises9. Financial failure10. Political/social

instability

Role of the Social Sciences – 40 Years

• Gibson report (1970)– “recommended that the Council develop a social

science arm to foster development of research activity” (Neil Lunt PhD Thesis, 2004, p. 20)

• Gluckman discussion paper (2011, p.15)– “Social science is not well constituted within the

New Zealand science system and across or within those ministries and agencies that need such information to develop policy options”.

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Outline

Are these “hard times”?

BRIEF QUESTIONS?

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Outline

Are these “hard times”?

Making knowledge claims

Improving our methodsInference by design

Making it count

Assessing and increasing impact

Concluding thoughts“Public” social science

A professionalising agenda 9

These Books Needed “Facts”!

“Knowledge Claims” in Social Science – Some of the Issues

1. By its nature, social science detects patterns beyond everyday observation

2. “Common sense” can lead you astray

3. Common mistakes can be made in public debate (e.g. not comparing “like with like”)

4. Governments are looking for “evidence”

1. Patterns “below the surface” – Death Rates by Occupational Class

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

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1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6

1975-1977 1985-1987 1995-1997Elley-Irving Elley-Irving NZSEI

RII=1.8 RII=2.1DeDa RII=2.3

2. “Common sense” can be astray – Improving Driver Education

3. Common mistakes in public debate

Gaps that are barely budging* Imprisonment rate - gaps may close in 1170 years.

Closing gaps favour young (NZ Herald)By Vaimoana Tapaleao, James Ihaka, Simon Collins, Harkanwal Singh5:30 AM Monday Mar 17, 2014

4. Governments and “evidence”

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Outline

Are these “hard times”?

Making knowledge claims

BRIEF QUESTIONS?

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Outline

Improving our methods

Inference by design

Making it count

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Avendano

Fixed Effects – Inequality and Mortality

• Income inequality related to infant mortality• Strong ecological association income inequality with infant

mortality across countries - but is it causal?

• Fixed effects controls variation across countries • Approach relies on changes in inequality within countries

over time – 34 OECD countries over 48 years, Gini and IMR.

• Gini changes not associated with IMR changes• Possible that social policies reducing IMR cluster in relatively

egalitarian countries, but their effects are not via income.

Strully et al.

Natural Experiment – Welfare and Health

• Do work/income incentives affect infant health?• It is hypothesised that work/income schemes will raise incomes

and employment for unmarried mothers with high school or less, and in turn improve infant health.

• Using a “natural experiment” design • Variation between US states in introduction of income/work

incentives to estimate effects prenatal poverty/infant health.

• Labour market, incomes, birth weight, smoking • Schemes increased employment 19%, incomes 32%, increased

infant birth weight, slightly reduced smoking

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Improving our methods

Inference by design

Making it count

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The Problem – British Academy

The Solution – “Nuffield Initiative”

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Rectifying the ‘quantitative deficit’ in social science. A modest proposal!

Peter Davis and colleaguesCOMPASS Research Centre [www.compass.auckland.ac.nz]

Public Seminar, VUWInstitute of Policy StudiesFriday 12 November 2010 27

Some “Clarifications”

• What I am NOT saying is– ALL social science disciplines are equally afflicted by this “deficit”

• Psychology, Economics, Management (?) seem to be OK– There is NOBODY with quantitative skills in any department

• There are notable exceptions, but true of some departments– Quantitative skills must DISPLACE qualitative ones

• Students need both sets of skills – they should be “ambidextrous”!– Students should do courses taught by STATISTICIANS

• This would scare them off and they would miss substantive issues

• What I AM saying is– We are nearing the point where graduates lack CRUCIAL skills– Our disciplines are in danger of becoming ONE-DIMENSIONAL– Unless we take this seriously, others will gladly TAKE THE WORK!

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Outline

Improving our methods

Inference by design

Making it count

BRIEF QUESTIONS?

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Outline

Are these “hard times”?

Making knowledge claims

Improving our methodsInference by design

Making it count

Assessing and increasing impact

Concluding thoughts“Public” social science

A professionalising agenda 30

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Outline

Are these “hard times”?

Making knowledge claims

Improving our methodsInference by design

Making it count

Assessing and increasing impact

Concluding thoughts“Public” social science

A professionalising agenda 39

Economic and Social Research Council Shaping Society

Economic and Social Research Council

ESRC Doctoral Training CentresSocial Science for Schools

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Organisational model for “Public Practice of Professional Social Science”

Creating Knowledge

Engaging Communities

Building Skills

COMPASS Advisory

Board

Sharing Data

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New Zealand Social Statistics Network - research methods courses

Research methods courses offered since 2005

Attended by public servants, academics, research and students

Courses are run on a not-for–profit basis

Courses range from 2 to 5 days and are held in Wellington in November each year

For more information www.nzssn.org.nz

Contact: courses@nzssn.org.nz

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Proposed courses for November 17th – 28th 2014, Wellington

Introduction to statistics

Qualitative research techniques

Applied computer-assisted qualitative

data analysis using Nvivo

Introduction to structural equation modelling

Introduction to survey design

Introduction to social network analysis

Fundamentals of SPSS

Introduction to program evaluation

Mixed methods in social research

Questionnaire design

Introduction to R

Q Methodology

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“Valuing” the Social Sciences. An agenda for hard times

eSocSci Seminar Series31 October 2014

Peter Davis

University of Aucklandpb.davis@auckland.ac.nzand COMPASS Research Centrewww.compass.auckland.ac.nz

A Modest Proposal!Some Principles

• Accept that there is a problem - for our disciplines

• Accept that our students should be methodologically “ambidextrous”

• Accept that a big part of the problem is students never exercising analytical skills with real data

• Look at ways in which students can be exposed to quantitative methods - without turning them off

• Cooperate across disciplines and institutions46

A Modest Proposal!Some Suggestions

• Joint and pooled block-course teaching in quantitative (and qualitative) research methods.

• Use KAREN network to pool teaching time and resources around the country in real-time contact hours.

• Work together on agreed curricular content and delivery at senior undergraduate and post-graduate levels

• Annual prize for best thesis using quantitative techniques.

• Use quantitative studies to illustrate substantive courses.47