vae 2014 presentation vaics
TRANSCRIPT
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Consumer Sentiment and Price
Expectations in Virginia
Alice Louise KassensInstitute for Policy and Opinion Research
Roanoke College
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Released by the Roanoke College Institute for Opinion and Policy Research (IPOR)
Consumer sentiment (similar to the University of Michigan index) began November 2011; Price expectations in February 2012
Initially produced twice a year (Nov, Feb); starting 2013 released quarterly (Feb, May, Aug, Nov)
The indexes
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Consumer Sentiment
Would you say that you and your family living there are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?
Now looking ahead: do you think that a year from now you and your family living there will be better off financially, worse off, or just about the same as now?
Now, turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, would you say at the present time that business conditions are better off, worse off, or just about the same as they were a year ago?
Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that the country as a whole will have continuous good times during the next five years or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression or what?
About big things people buy for their homes - such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or a bad time for people to buy major household items?
Survey
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Price Expectations
During the next year, do you think that prices in general will go down, stay where they are now, or go up?
What about the outlook for prices over the next five to ten years? Do you think prices will be higher, about the same, or lower five to ten years from
Survey
Probing questions included for both indexes to clarify responses
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Demographics
• Gender
• Race
• Age
• Political party
Health
• General health
• Depression
Labor Market
• Census questions
• Income
• Health and unemployment (conditional)
Survey
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Goal ~ 600 completed surveys
Automatic dialer Adjusts calling to hit our regional goals (population)
~ 30% cell phone
15 stations with paid employees Survey software with logics programed
Up to three calling periods per day ~ 6 minutes per completed survey
Calling completed in ~ 3 days
Margin of error for full sample +/- 4%
Survey
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Virginia Index of Consumer Sentiment (VAICS) Feb. 2014
Household today vs. next year
shows improvement
Outlook on business today,
economy future more negative than
positive
VAICS for February is 83
Up from November 2013 (76) and
February 2013 (75)
Return to upward trend of 2013
VAICC = 84, VAICE = 82
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Components of the VAICS
28
44
3129
37
28
13
37
27
36
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VAICC = 84, up almost 5 points since November
Of those reporting being better off financially today compared to a year ago, 79-percent attribute the improvement to higher income, while only 2.7-percent to lower prices.
The Virginia-US gap concerning current conditions has continued to rise since 2013.
Thirty-seven percent of Virginians believe that business conditions are worse today than a year ago, a ten-point reduction since November; twenty-eight percent report business conditions have improved.
Republicans (58 percent), Independents (42 percent), and whites (44 percent) more likely to think business conditions are worse today
A greater share of high income households believe business conditions have improved (39 percent) than worsened (32 percent).
VAICC February 2014
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VAICE = 82
Sentiment about the future economy and household finances increased by close to 8-points since November, returning to its upward trend.
The share of respondents who believe that the next five years will be a period of high unemployment and recession is down 6-points since November.
Republicans (58 percent) and low income households (51 percent) are more likely to believe the coming years will be a time a economic contraction than prosperity
Democrats (43 percent) and blacks (39 percent) are more likely to believe the coming years will be a time of economic prosperity than contraction.
VAICE February 2014
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Virginia vs. the US over time
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VAICS by region (February 2014)
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VA inflation expectations (short)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Up Down Same
Percent
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
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VA inflation expectations (long)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Up Down Same
Percent
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
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Virginia short- and long-term inflation expectations
