uwm economic scorecard 2014 3rd quarter

8/11/2019 UWM Economic Scorecard 2014 3rd Quarter

1/19

Wisconsin Economic Scorecard Q3 2014: Page 0

RESEARCH BRIEFQ3 2014

Joseph Cera, PhDCUIR Survey Center Director

Atiera ColemanResearch Supervisor

Kristina FrenchResearch Supervisor

The Wisconsin Economic

Scorecard is a quarterly poll of

Wisconsin residents conducted by

the UWM Center for Urban

Initiatives and Research, in

cooperation with WUWM and

WisBusiness.com.

Applied ResearchTechnical Assistance

Community Initiatives

Contact us:Phone (414) 229-5916Fax (414) 229-3884Web http://cuir.uwm.edu/

WISCONSIN ECONOMIC SCORECARD

The Wisconsin Economic Scorecard is a quarterly poll of Wisconsin residents

conducted by the UWM Center for Urban Initiatives and Research(CUIR), in

cooperation with WisBusiness.comand Milwaukee Public Radio(WUWM 89.7).

This tracking poll measures perceptions of the health of Wisconsins economy,

personal economic circumstances of Wisconsin residents, and public opinion

regarding important state economic issues.

The Q3 2014 Wisconsin Economic Scorecardwas a random digit dial (RDD)

landline/mobile telephone survey of 427 Wisconsin residents, conducted by the CUIR

Survey Center at the University of WisconsinMilwaukee from September 22-27.

The sampling margin of error was 4.7% at the 95% confidence level.

MAJOR FINDINGS:

About 73% of registered voters* in Wisconsin support an increase in the

minimum wage. When asked to specify an ideal minimum wage rate,

Wisconsin voters are most likely to say $10.00/hour.

When it comes to covering a large projected shortfall in the state

transportation fund, there is no clearly-preferred option; tax/user fee

increases (preferred by 31%), introduction of toll roads (30%), and delaying

major construction projects (31%) all enjoy similar levels of support.

However, delaying major construction projects provokes the least intense

opposition.

71% of registered voters would oppose a specific proposal to increase the

state gasoline tax by five cents per gallon.

Just 39% of state voters support expanding the states taxpayer-supported

private school voucher program; most would prefer the program either be

eliminated or stay as-is.

About 53% of Wisconsin voters would prefer that the state prioritize

assistance to established manufacturing, while 34% would like to seeincentives go to new start-up technology firms.

While evaluations of personal financial situations have improved, views of

the wider state economy and the overall direction of the state have

worsened slightly. About 53% of Wisconsin residents now say the state is

headed in the right direction,down from 63% last quarter.

*N=393, margin of error = 4.9%


2/19


TABLE OF CONTENTS

Personal Financial Circumstances Page 2

Perceptions of Wisconsins Economy Page 5

The Direction of the State Page 10

FEATURES

Support for an Increase in the Minimum Wage in Wisconsin Page 12

Preferences Regarding the Projected Transportation Fund Shortfall Page 15

Opinion Regarding Changes to the Statewide School Voucher Program Page 17

Constraints on WEDC Efforts to Attract Business Page 18


3/19


PERSONAL FINANCIAL CIRCUMSTANCES

The economic perceptions of Wisconsin residents are grounded in their personal experiences andcircumstances. Residents were asked to evaluate their current personal financial situations; Figure 1 showsthat a slim majority of residents describe their financial situations in positive terms; either good (42%) orexcellent (12%). Another 30% refer to their finances as fair, while 16% call their financial situations

poor. This quarter marks the first time since late 2012 that residents have expressed a net positive opinionof their personal financial circumstances.

Figure 1: Evaluation of Current Personal Financial Situations

Among working-age Wisconsin residents, there is an unsurprisingly strong relationship between evaluations

of personal financial situations and household income. Figure 2 shows that a large majority of residents whocome from households bringing in less than $40,000 per year describe their finances in negative terms (fairor poor), while most residents from households bringing in over $60,000 per year evaluate their financialcircumstances positively (good or excellent). Those from households earning between $40,000 and$60,000 annually are evenly split when it comes to positive or negative evaluations of their economicsituations.

Figure 2: Evaluation of Current Personal Financial Situation, by Household Income (Non-Retired Persons)

16%

30%

42%

12%

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"excellent" current personalfinancial situation

"good" current personalfinancial situation

"fair" current personalfinancial situation

"poor" current personalfinancial situation

85%

64%

50%

29%

22%

12%

10%

15%

36%

50%

71%

78%

88%

90%

$120K

current financial situation"poor" or "fair"

current financial situation"good" or "excellent"


4/19


Figure 3 shows the distribution of household income among non-retired Wisconsin residents, as well as howresidents in each income category are likely to feel about their respective financial situations. The medianworking-age Wisconsin resident is likely to live in a household with an annual income between $40,000 and$60,000, and is most likely to report that their current financial situation is either fair or good .

Figure 3: Self-reported Pre-tax 2013 Household Income (Non-retired persons)

Residents were also asked about their expectations regarding their personal finances over the coming year.Figure 4 shows that a slight majority of residents (52%) expect their personal economic circumstances tostay about the same. About 39% expect their personal finances to get better, while just 9% think theircircumstances will get worse.

11.7%

19.9%22.0%

17.5%

12.7%

5.8%

10.3%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

$120K

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

$120K

current financial situation "excellent"

current financial situation "good"

current financial situation "fair"

current financial situation "poor"


5/19


Figure 4: Over the next year, do you expect your personal finances to

Another battery of questions asked residents about their recent experiences with a variety of commonsignificant personal financial problems. Figure 5 shows that the proportions of residents reporting significantfinancial problems (maintaining employment, getting loan or credit, affording housing and/or utilities, saving

for retirement) are comparable to measurements from last quarter, and are not significantly different frommeasurements taken at this time last year.

Figure 5: Incidence of Recent Significant Personal Financial Problems

In terms of spending on non-necessities like entertainment, restaurants, and vacations, Wisconsin residentscontinue to be most likely to report static levels of recent spending; about 51% of residents say spending onnon-necessities has stayed about the same over the last six months. While 11% say they have recentlyincreased spending on non-necessities, 38% of residents say they have recently decreased their spending onrecreation and entertainment. Figure 6 shows that the proportion of those who report decreased levels ofrecreational spending continues to fluctuate slightly after steadily declining throughout 2013.

39%

52%

9%

get better

stay about the same

get worse

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

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problems affordingrent or mortgage

problems keeping job

problems getting loanor credit

problemssaving/paying forretirement

problems paying forutilities


6/19


Figure 6: Spending on Non-Necessities (Entertainment, Restaurants, Vacations) Over the Past Six Months

PERCEPTIONS OF WISCONSINSECONOMY

While Wisconsin residents are, on balance, slightly more positive than negative about their personal financialsituations, aggregate perceptions of the wider state economy continue to be negative. This quarter, about63% of Wisconsin residents describe the performance of the state economy in negative terms, while just 37%report positive evaluations of Wisconsins economic performance (Figure 7). While the trend over the lasttwo years has been one of incrementally increasing optimism, this quarter sees a slight increase in theproportion of Wisconsin residents that say the state economy is poor.

Despite a net negative balance of opinion regarding Wisconsins economy, current aggregate judgment of thestates economic performance is not likely to translate into serious electoral trouble for the incumbentadministration heading into the November elections. In states where opinion polls show incumbentgovernors consistently trailing, economic sentiment tends to be much more negative than it is in Wisconsincurrently.1

Figure 7: Evaluations of Wisconsins Current Economy

1Source: Gallup 2014 U.S. Midterm Elections State Scorecards

38%

51%

11%

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increased

stayed about the same

decreased

19%

44%

33%

4%

Oct-12

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WI economy "excellent"

WI economy "good"

WI economy "fair"

WI economy "poor"


7/19


Figure 8 shows that personal financial situations remain a core driver of state economic evaluations. Thosewho are struggling are overwhelmingly likely to say the state economy is poor or fair, while those whoevaluate their personal economic circumstances positively are just as likely to say the state economy is goodor excellent as they are to describe it in negative terms. This quarter sees a significant increase in theproportion of negative economic evaluations among those with poor personal finances, as well as asignificant increase in positive evaluations of the state economy a mong those who with excellent financial

situations.Figure 8: Evaluations of Wisconsins Current Economy, by Personal Financial Situation

Personal Financial Situation:

Poor Fair Good Excellent

Figure 9: Evaluations of Wisconsins Current Economy, by Party Identification

Party Identification:

Democrats Independents Republicans

35%46%

44%

43%

17%10%

Jun '14 Sept '14

WI economy "poor"

WI economy "fair"

WI economy "good"


17%25%

58%54%

24% 22%

1%

Jun '14 Sept '14

WI economy "poor"

WI economy "fair"

WI economy "good"


7% 8%

38% 39%

47%49%

8% 4%

Jun '14 Sept '14

WI economy "poor"

WI economy "fair"

WI economy "good"


8% 10%

38% 37%

48%37%

8%16%

Jun '14 Sept '14

WI economy "poor"

WI economy "fair"

WI economy "good"


23%34%

59%54%

17% 11%1%

Jun '14 Sept '14

WI economy "poor"

WI economy "fair"

WI economy "good"


17% 16%

44% 46%

35% 33%

5% 5%

Jun '14 Sept '14

WI economy "poor"

WI economy "fair"

WI economy "good"


3% 3%

37%28%

50% 64%

10% 6%

Jun '14 Sept '14

WI economy "poor"

WI economy "fair"

WI economy "good"



8/19


Figure 9 shows a concurrent increase in political polarization regarding evaluations of the state economy aswe approach the November gubernatorial elections. Since last quarter, Democrats have become significantlymore likely to describe the recent performance of the state economy as poor, while Republicans havebecome much more likely to describe it as good over the same period. Meanwhile, economic evaluationshave remained steady among political independents, suggesting that recent changes in economic evaluations

of the state economy are at least partially attributable to partisan cheerleading.

In terms of expectations regarding the future performance of the state economy, the two-year trend hasfeatured incremental increases in the proportion of residents expecting stability rather than positive ornegative change; it seems as though Wisconsin residents are more and more likely to see the current state ofthe state economy as normal. However, the last two quarters has seen a break in that trend; Figure 10shows a slight but sustained increase in the proportion of residents expecting things to improve since Q1.

Figure 10: Expectations Regarding Wisconsins Economy over the Next Year

Figures 11 and 12 show that there is a continued strong association between what residents are currentlyexperiencing or feeling and what they think will happen in the near future. Financially poor resident andthose who thing the current economy is performing poorly are much more likely to express pessimism aboutfuture economic performance in the state, while residents with excellent personal financial situations andthose who think Wisconsins economy is strong are considerably more optimistic.

13%

46%

41%

Oct-12

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get better

stay about the same

get worse


9/19


Figure 11: Expectations for WI Economy over Next Year, by Personal Financial Situation

Figure 12: Expectations for WI Economy over Next Year, by Perceptions of Current WI Economy

31%

14%8% 7%

38%

54%

44% 41%

31% 31%

49% 52%

Personalfinances "poor"

Personalfinances "fair"

Personalfinances "good"

Personalfinances

"excellent"

WI economy will "get better"over next year

WI economy will "stay about thesame" over next year

WI economy will "get worse"over next year

27%17%

3%

55%

54%

31%

18%30%

66%

Current WI econ"poor"

Current WI econ"fair"

Current WI econ"good/excellent"

WI economy will "get better"over next year

WI economy will "stay about thesame" over next year

WI economy will "get worse"over next year


10/19


Residents were also asked about their level of satisfaction with the pace of job creation in the state. Figure 13shows that residents are split on the issue; 53% express satisfaction, while 47% are dissatisfied. However,those who are very dissatisfied outnumber those who are very satisfied 22% to 10%. This pattern ofopinion has not changed substantially since last quarter.

Figure 13: Satisfaction with the Pace of Job Creation in Wisconsin

June 2014 September 2014

Figure 14 shows that opinion regarding the pace of job creation is strongly linked to party identification.Republicans are likely to approve, while democrats are likely to disapprove; political independents are spliton the issue. Republicans have become slightly more likely to express satisfaction with the pace of jobcreation in the state since last quarter.

Figure 14: Satisfaction with the Pace of Job Creation in Wisconsin, by Party Identification


9%

45%26%

20%

Verysatisfied

Somewhatsatisfied

Somewhatdissatisfied

Verydissatisfied

10%

43%25%

22%

Verysatisfied

Somewhatsatisfied

Somewhatdissatisfied

Verydissatisfied

34%21%

5%

34%

27%

17%

31%

44%

61%

8%17%

Democrats Independents RepublicansVery satisfiedSomewhat satisfiedSomewhat dissatisfiedVery dissatisfied

41%

20%

3%

30%

27%

9%

27%

41%

71%

2%12% 17%

Democrats Independents RepublicansVery satisfiedSomewhat satisfiedSomewhat dissatisfiedVery dissatisfied


11/19


THE DIRECTION OF THE STATE

When asked about the direction in which Wisconsin is headed, 53% of residents say the state is headed inthe right direction, while about 47% say the state is headed on the wrong track.Figure 15 shows asignificant decrease in the proportion of residents willing to describe the state s direction in positive termssince last quarter, when 63% of residents were more likely than not to express optimism about the direction

of the state.

Figure 16 shows that evaluations of the recent performance of the state economy are a core driver of opinionsregarding the overall direction of the state. Virtually every resident who describes the state economy aspoor thinks Wisconsin is on the wrong track, while all residents responding to this wave of the surveywho said the state economy is excellent also said Wisconsin is headed in the right direction. Partisanship,however, biases both economic evaluations and general impressions about the states overall direction;Figure 17 shows that this quarters negative shift in opinion is almost exclusively driven by increasingnegativity among Democrats, likely prompted by the approaching election. It is important to note, though,that Democrats who express more positive views about the state economy are also relatively more positiveabout the direction of the state, and Republicans that are not satisfied with the current state economy are alsorelatively less optimistic about where the state is headed overall. Partisanship colors, but does not override,the economic experiences which inform public opinion about the wider state of the state.

Figure 15: Perceived Direction of the State of Wisconsin

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12/19


Figure 16: Wisconsin Right Direction/Wrong Track, by Evaluations of Current State Economy

Figure 17: Perceived Direction of the State of Wisconsin, by Party Identification

Party Identification:


70%

20%

2%

28%

41%

5%

1%

31%

42%

20%

7%

51%

80%

Economy "poor" Economy "fair" Economy "good" Economy"excellent"

wrong track - strongly

wrong track - somewhat

right direction -somewhat

right direction - strongly

25%

41% 46%

37%

22%

40%

34% 32%

11%4% 5% 2%

Mar '14 Jun '14 Sept '14wrong track - stronglywrong track - somewhatright direction - somewhatright direction - strongly

16% 20% 18%

30% 18% 25%

36%42% 34%

17% 20% 23%


3% 5% 1%9% 8%

5%

50%38%

42%

38%49% 52%



13/19


FEATURE: SUPPORT FOR AN INCREASE IN THE MINIMUM WAGE IN WISCONSIN

Wisconsin is one of 29 states where the minimum wage is set at or below the lowest level allowed by federallaw, $7.25 per hour. Residents that indicated they are registered to vote2were asked whether they wouldsupport or oppose in increase in the minimum wage in Wisconsin. Figure 18 shows that 73% of registeredvoters in the state would support a minimum wage hike, while just 26% would oppose such a change.

Figure 18: Support for an Increase in the Minimum Wage in Wisconsin

(registered voters)


Figure 19 shows a significant decrease in support for a minimum wage hike among Republican voters sincelast quarter; while 61% formerly expressed support, Republicans are now split on the issue. Their risingopposition is balanced by a slight increase in support among independents, yielding a slight aggregatedecrease in aggregate support for a higher minimum wage in the state.

Figure 19: Support for an Increase in the Minimum Wage in Wisconsin, by Party Identification

(registered voters)


Registered voters were also asked about support for tying future increases in the state minimum wage to therate of inflation; 69% said they would support such a policy, while 25% expressed opposition and 7% wereundecided.

2393 respondents reported being registered to vote, yielding a margin of error of 4.9% at the 95% confidence level.

76%

1%

23%support

noopinion/don't

knowoppose

73%1%

26%

support

noopinion/don't

knowoppose

6%

27%38%

3%

1%

94%

70%61%


support

noopinion/don'tknow

oppose

7%

25%

51%1%

2%93%

74%

47%


support

noopinion/don'tknow

oppose


14/19


Although several state-wide polls have indicated wide support for an increase in Wisconsins minimum wage,there is still wide disagreement among policymakers as to what an appropriate increase might be. Thisquarter, we asked Wisconsin voters an open-ended question about the minimum wage. Respondents wereinformed that the current state minimum wage in Wisconsin is $7.25 per hour, and then asked the followingquestion:

In your opinion, what should the minimum wage be in Wisconsin?

Answers were recorded verbatim. The results are presented visually in Figure 20 in histogram form:

Figure 20: Wisconsin Voter Opinions Regarding the Ideal State Minimum Wage (registered voters)

16.5%

3.5%

0.0%10.7%

2.1%

6.4%

0.0%

12.4%

0.3%

1.6%

0.0%

27.2%

2.2%

2.0%

0.0%1.0%

0.0%

0.5%

0.0%

3.6%

0.0%

0.2%

0.0%

0.8%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%0.2%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

4.9%

0.5%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%

$15.00/hr


15/19


Figure 20 shows that the modal (or most common) category was $9.76-$10.00/hour; 27.2% of Wisconsinvoters (up from 24.2% last quarter) gave responses which fell into this category. The median response was$9.00/hour. Relatively large proportions of respondents chose $8.00/hour (about 11%) or suggested that theminimum wage should remain at its current level (about 14%). Just 2.5% indicated opposition to agovernment-set minimum wage, while 5.4% indicated support for a minimum wage of $15.00/hour or higher.

Interestingly, 41.9% of those who indicated opposition to a general minimum wage increase on the closed-ended question chose ideal minimum wage levels higher than $7.25/hour on the open ended question;among these minimum wage increase opponents, $8.00/hourwas the most common response to what doyou think the minimum wage should be in Wisconsin? It is possible that many opponents actually have apreferred rate that is higher than the current one, but register opposition to an unspecified increase whenasked because they see the most common proposals (such as $10.10/hour floated by Democratic groups) astoo high.

Figure 21 shows the different distributions of responses to the open-ended question about the minimumwage across political groups. The popularity of each individual response is represented by the area of thecircle centered on its respective dollar amount.

Figure 21: Wisconsin Voter Opinions Regarding the Ideal State Minimum Wage, by Party Identification(registered voters)

The most common ideal minimum wage among Democrats and political independents is $10.00/hour, whilethe modal response among Republicans is the current rate of $7.25/hour. However, the vast majority of eachgroup prefers a minimum wage rate higher than the current rate. The median response among Democratswas $10.00/hour; among independents, $9.25/hour, and $8.00/hour among Republicans. It is notable thatthe distribution of preferences among independents is much closer to that of Democrats than it is to that orRepublicans.

$7.00 $8.00 $9.00 $10.00 $11.00 $12.00 $13.00 $14.00 $15.00

Democrats Republicans Independents


16/19


FEATURE: PREFERENCES REGARDING THE PROJECTED TRANSPORTATION FUND SHORTFALL

Registered voters were asked about their preferences regarding several possible solutions that could be usedto address a large projected shortfall in the state transportation fund. A series of questions aimed atmeasuring support for specific proposals that was put to respondents last year indicated wide opposition toevery proposal. In order to provide guidance to policymakers, for the last two quarters we have asked

respondents to specify their most- and least-preferred options.

Registered voters were asked to state their preference from among four options; tax and user fee increases,delaying major road construction projects, introducing toll roads, and borrowing money. Figure 22 showsthat since last quarter, there has been a notable decrease in support for introducing toll roads, which hadbeen the most-preferred option for a plurality of Wisconsin voters. Now, tax/user fee increases, delayingmajor road construction projects, and toll roads are all about equally preferred. Figure 23 shows thattax/user fee hikes are most popular among Democrats, while delays are the preferred option amongRepublicans and independents.

Figure 22: Most-Preferred Options for Addressing the Projected Transportation Fund Shortfall

(Q2 2014 vs. Q3 2014 comparison, registered voters)

Figure 23: Most-Preferred Options for Addressing the Projected Transportation Fund Shortfall, by Party

(registered voters)

27%

31%28%

31%

38%

30%

8% 8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Q2 2014 Q3 2014

tax and user feeincreasesdelaying major roadconstruction projectsintroducing toll roads

borrowing money

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

All Registered Voters Democrats Independents Republicans

tax and user feeincreases

delaying major road

construction projectsintroducing toll roads

borrowing money


17/19


Figure 24 shows that toll roads and borrowing money are now tied for least-preferred option. Meanwhile,opposition to tax and user fee increases has softened since last quarter; just 26% say it is their least-preferredoption, compared to 33% a few months ago. Figure 25 suggests that borrowing money is the least-preferredoption among Democrats, while toll roads are the least desirable option for independents and Republicans.

Figure 24: Least-Preferred Options for Addressing the Projected Transportation Fund Shortfall(Q2 2014 vs.Q3 2014 comparison, registered voters)

Figure 25: Least-Preferred Options for Addressing the Projected Transportation Fund Shortfall, by Party(registered voters)

In addition to the questions that asked voters to rank their preferences, voters were asked specifically about aproposal to increase the gasoline tax by 5 cents per gallon. Figure 26 shows that such an option would only besupported by about 26% of Wisconsin voters.

33%

26%

16%13%

26%

30%

24%

30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Q2 2014 Q3 2014


delaying major roadconstruction projects

introducing toll roads

borrowing money

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

All Registered Voters Democrats Independents Republicans


delaying major roadconstruction projects

introducing toll roads

borrowing money


18/19


Figure 26: Support for Raising the Gasoline Tax by Five Cents per Gallon (registered voters)

FEATURE: OPINIONS REGARDING CHANGES TO THE STATEWIDE SCHOOL VOUCHER PROGRAM

Wisconsin lawmakers are considering expanding the state's parental school choice program, which uses taxdollars to subsidize private school tuition for some students from low-income households. (The statewideprogram does not impact students in Milwaukee or Racine, which have separate school choice programs.)Currently, participation in the statewide program is capped at 1000 students. Registered voters were asked ifthe statewide program should be expanded, maintained as-is, or eliminated. Figure 27 shows that just 39%support expanding the program; most Wisconsin voters would prefer that the statewide voucher program beeither maintained as-is (27%) or eliminated outright (28%).

Figure 27: Should the Statewide School Choice Program be

(registered voters)

72%

26%

2%

oppose

support

don't know

28%

27%

39%

6%

eliminated

maintained as-is

expanded

don't know


19/19


FEATURE: CONSTRAINTS ON WEDC EFFORTS TO ATTRACT BUSINESS

Over the past year, actions taken by the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation (WEDC), a public-private partnership helmed by the Governor and tasked with augmenting economic growth, have come underscrutiny as some firms receiving state incentives have not implemented promised development or job

creation. State voters were asked two questions intended to provide policymakers some guidance when itcomes to public preferences regarding disbursement of state incentives aimed at businesses.

First, respondents were asked whether or not firms that receive state funds should be allowed to use thosefunds to create jobs out-of-state. Figure 28 shows a great deal of support for placing that constraint uponfirms that receive state incentive money; 71% said firms should be barred from applying those funds todevelopment out-of-state. About 25% said such practices should not be blocked, and 4% were unsure.

Figure 28: Should Firms that Receive State Funds be Barred from Using Those Funds to Create Jobs Out-of-State?(registered voters)

Next, respondents were asked to state their preference when it comes to the type of firms eligible for state

incentive assistance. When asked to prioritize incentives for new technology start-up firms versus incentivesfor established manufacturing, 53% chose the latter, while 34% favored new tech firms (Figure 29).

Figure 29: Should the state focus its efforts on encouraging new start-up tech firms, or supporting established

manufacturing?

(registered voters)

25%

71%

4%

no yes don't know

34%

53%

13%

new start-up tech

establishedmanufacturing

don't know

uwm economic scorecard 2014 3rd quarter

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