Utilizing Ecosystem Information to Improve Decision Support for Central California Salmon

Project Acronym: Salmon Applied Forecasting, Assessment and Research Initiative (SAFARI)

Chavez, F.1, B.K. Wells2, M. Messie1, E. Danner2, W. Sydeman3, Y Chao4, F Chai5, S. Ralston2, J. Field2, D. Foley2, J. Santora3, S. Bograd2, S. Lindley2, and W. Peterson2.

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HistoryHistory• Ecological forecasting for fisheries started with Ecological forecasting for fisheries started with

collaboration with Peruvian anchovy managerscollaboration with Peruvian anchovy managers

• Developed remote sensing productsDeveloped remote sensing products

• Developed 20 year ROMS (physics/ecosystem) Developed 20 year ROMS (physics/ecosystem) model hindcastmodel hindcast

• Developed 9 month model forecastsDeveloped 9 month model forecasts

• Incorporated remote sensing and models into Incorporated remote sensing and models into salmon decision support systemsalmon decision support system

• Presently working on integrated river, SF Bay, Presently working on integrated river, SF Bay, ocean model (Danner et al.)ocean model (Danner et al.)

Key MessagesKey Messages

• Pacific Fisheries Management Council Pacific Fisheries Management Council is customer - is customer - sets harvest rules for sets harvest rules for salmon stocks in central CA, WA, OR, salmon stocks in central CA, WA, OR, and ID and ID

• Partners in NOAA/NMFS have close Partners in NOAA/NMFS have close working relationship with PFMCworking relationship with PFMC

• Central California salmon had just had Central California salmon had just had several years with poor returns and several years with poor returns and ocean was implicatedocean was implicated

Key MessagesKey Messages

• Salmon spawn in rivers, fingerlings Salmon spawn in rivers, fingerlings make way down rivers to San Francisco make way down rivers to San Francisco Bay and then oceanBay and then ocean

• Early ocean period critical for survival, Early ocean period critical for survival, in particular availability of krillin particular availability of krill

• Favorable conditions for krill Favorable conditions for krill determined by large scale (ENSO, PDO) determined by large scale (ENSO, PDO) and local (winds, NPGO) forcingand local (winds, NPGO) forcing

• Krill concentrate in upwelling shadowsKrill concentrate in upwelling shadows

Key MessagesKey Messages

• Cool, upwelling conditions favor Cool, upwelling conditions favor krill and salmonkrill and salmon

• Sea level in the Fall indicator of Sea level in the Fall indicator of large-scale conditions during large-scale conditions during following Springfollowing Spring

• High sea level, warm, low, coolHigh sea level, warm, low, cool

• Remote sensing and models Remote sensing and models provide sea level informationprovide sea level information

Key MessagesKey Messages

• In situ data available for krill In situ data available for krill abundance and distributionabundance and distribution

• Coupled model capable of Coupled model capable of reproducing krill spatial pattern reproducing krill spatial pattern and abundance of critical speciesand abundance of critical species

• Remote sensing and models can Remote sensing and models can improve and extend predictions improve and extend predictions for salmon returns by a year +for salmon returns by a year +

Key MessagesKey Messages

• Salmon return to spawn at 3+ years – Salmon return to spawn at 3+ years – these are the harvest fishthese are the harvest fish

• A few 2 year (jacks) salmon return A few 2 year (jacks) salmon return with spawnerswith spawners

• The number of 2 year fish is correlated The number of 2 year fish is correlated with the number of 3+ fish returning with the number of 3+ fish returning the following yearthe following year

• PFMC uses the jack model as a starting PFMC uses the jack model as a starting point and tunes from therepoint and tunes from there

PFMC utilizes project output PFMC utilizes project output for:for:

• Climate and ocean status, trends, and Climate and ocean status, trends, and scenarios for stock assessment, harvest scenarios for stock assessment, harvest levels and rebuilding planslevels and rebuilding plans

• Physical and biological conditions for Physical and biological conditions for prediction of salmon early ocean survivalprediction of salmon early ocean survival

• Climate variability in the North Pacific in Climate variability in the North Pacific in relation to salmon survival and productivityrelation to salmon survival and productivity

• Collections of indices of ecosystem state Collections of indices of ecosystem state including upwelling, ENSO, PDOincluding upwelling, ENSO, PDO

Recent declines in the fishery implicate the ocean and instigated our interest in this work.

Background

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Physical model run over Physical model run over entire Pacific at 12.5 km entire Pacific at 12.5 km resolutionresolution

Taking the next step: Modeling the ocean environment (ROMS-COSINE)

Model

Data

Sea levelSST

Modeled zooplanktonObserved krill

Zooplankton 0-100 m Isobath

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Corollary and futureCorollary and future• PFMC utilizes project output in the DSS for PFMC utilizes project output in the DSS for

central California salmoncentral California salmon

• Process is very conservative Process is very conservative

• NOAA utilizes project output as part of NOAA utilizes project output as part of Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA) Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA) process for the CCLMEprocess for the CCLME

• Forage species (krill, anchovy, sardine) are Forage species (krill, anchovy, sardine) are critical component of IEAcritical component of IEA

• PFMC interested in tackling regulated PFMC interested in tackling regulated forage species (sardine) nextforage species (sardine) next