utah cities economic outlook 2008 & 2009...• revenue outlook for 2008 and 2009 key economic...
TRANSCRIPT
Utah Cities Economic Outlook!
2008 & 2009!
• Doug Macdonald, Economic Consultant!
• Neil Abercrombie, Policy Analyst!
• October 14, 2008!
For Most Cities, it feels like a Recession
Source: Andrew Gledhill, Economy.com, NY Times, October 5, 2008
• Key Driver #1:
• Construction will dampen 2007 and early 2008 taxable sales
Utah Construction Permit Values
In millions of dollars
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Residential
Nonresidential
Remodels
$2.2 B in 2008 est.
• Residential Construction decelerating
($ Millions) Utah SL County
2000 $2,139.5 $544.7
2001 2,352.7 628.3
2002 2,492.0 653.4
2003 3,023.4 899.0
2004 3,553.0 918.7
2005 4,662.5 1,174.4
2006 4,955.5 1,087.3
2007 3904.6 820.7
2008q1 528.3 83.2
2008q2 400.7 130.8
($ Millions) Utah SL County
2001 10.0% 15.3%
2002 5.9% 4.0%
2003 21.3% 37.6%
2004 17.5% 2.2%
2005 31.2% 27.8%
2006 6.3% -7.4%
2007 -21.2% -24.5%
2008 q1 -54.4% -61.5%
2008 q2 -60.4% -49.7%
• Salt Lake County’s 45% drop in residential construction permit values will take 4% to 5% off taxable sales growth in 2008
• Key driver #1: Residential Construction (quarterly detail)
• Key driver #1: Construction - Nonresidential
This slide was presented to the Council in October 2007
• Still, Utah Unemployment Claims, a leading indicator for the six-month job outlook, has jumped 73% in the last three months, closing in on levels experienced in the 2001-03 recession
Source: www. jobs.utah.gov
July 2008 job growth down to 0.5% (Expect Job growth to average 0% in 2008 and decline over next 6 months)
1% Local Tax Distribution, June-August (2nd Qtr Sales)
6.1%
-2.8%
0.1%
-2.3%
-4.7%
-8.3%
-19.2%
-5.3%
2.1%
6.8%
-12.0%
-3.9%
-1.5%
-25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%
Bountiful
Layton
Lehi
Logan
Ogden
Orem
Park City
Provo
Salt Lake City
Sandy
South Jordan
St. George
West Valley
Percent change from prior year
• From double-digit gains in ’05 and ‘06, 4th Quarter 2007 taxable sales in Salt Lake County slowed down abruptly to just under 1% growth. The recent U.S. financial turmoil will extend negative performances over the next three quarters.
Statewide -4.3%
1% Local Sales Distribution for Sept. 2008 (July Sales)
0.8%
0.6%
-0.7%
-2.8%
-2.8%
-3.3%
-3.5%
-1.3%
1.5%
-7.1%
11.2%
-7.7%
-3.6%
-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%
Bountiful
Layton
Lehi
Logan
Ogden
Orem
Park City
Provo
Salt Lake City
Sandy
South Jordan
St. George
West Valley
Percent change from prior year
• From double-digit gains in ’05 and ‘06, 4th Quarter 2007 taxable sales in Salt Lake County slowed down abruptly to just under 1% growth. The recent U.S. financial turmoil will extend negative performances over the next three quarters.
Statewide + 0.4%
• Revenue Outlook for 2008 and 2009
Key Economic Drivers
2008 Change from prior year
2009 Change from prior year
Salt Lake Co. Residential
Construction -46.8% -2.9%
Utah Non-farm Jobs
0.0 -0.9
Utah Average Wage
2.7 2.3
Utah Wages 2.7 1.4
Salt Lake County
Taxable Sales -5.0 -0.1
• Revenue Outlook for 2008 and 2009
Key Economic Drivers
2008 Change from prior year
2009 Change from prior year
Utah Residential Construction
-44.9% -3.0%
Utah Non-farm Jobs
0.0 -0.9
Utah Average Wage
2.7 2.3
Utah Wages 2.7 1.4
Utah
Taxable Sales -5.0 -0.1