using long term trends in business strategy - lecture university ghent
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Using long-term trend assessment in business strategy
@fdemeyer
fredericdemeyer.com
Instituteforfutureinsights
fdemeyer
I admit, I am a futurist…
But what does it mean?
"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value." Marshal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers” Thomas Watson (IBM) 1943
“640k ought to be enough for anybody” Bill Gates, 1981
…Seeing beyond the paradigm is extremely difficult, but not impossible…
Ways to assess the future
Sophistication
Acc
urac
y
Ways to assess the future
Frederic De Meyer @ i4fi
GUT FEEL
…just by walking around…
…is this an indication of a trend towards URBAN FARMING?
Sophistication
Acc
urac
y
Ways to spot long-term trends
Frederic De Meyer @ i4fi
GUT FEEL
…mass customization is spreading to many consumer products…
…what if it would apply to other industries?
Health Care Retail
Education Energy
Sophistication
Acc
urac
y
Ways to spot long-term trends
Frederic De Meyer @ i4fi
GUT FEEL
Banks Music Press
…what do we see?
Banks Music Press
…we are witnessing a growing trend to desintermediation…
Sophistication
Acc
urac
y
Ways to spot long-term trends
Frederic De Meyer @ i4fi
GUT FEEL
Pa5ents now have limitless ways to be as knowledgeable as the
doctor (mass) Customiza5on of health care
becomes the new paradigm
Open source pharma challenges the current business R&D model
New market for DIY health (9000 Apple apps for personal health
care)
…look at what is happening in health care…
Patients now have limitless ways to be as knowledgeable
as the doctor (mass) Customization of health care
becomes the new paradigm
Open source pharma challenges the current business R&D model
New market for DIY health (9000 Apple apps for personal
health care)
…the future? Health provision ‘as a service’…
Sophistication
Acc
urac
y
Ways to spot long-term trends
Frederic De Meyer @ i4fi
GUT FEEL
…the power of system thinking…
Sophistication
Acc
urac
y
Ways to spot long-term trends
Frederic De Meyer @ i4fi
GUT FEEL
Sophistication
Acc
urac
y
Ways to spot long-term trends
Frederic De Meyer @ i4fi
GUT FEEL
Sta5s5cal certain5es
…Statistical certainty? Here is a bold prediction…
…why is this relevant for companies?
…prepare for future threats…
…prepare for future threats…
…prepare for future threats…
…prepare for future opportunities…
…prepare for future opportunities…
…prepare for future opportunities…
…align your business to the future…
…room for innovation…
…room for innovation…
…room for innovation…
external
internal
new competitors
new business models
new needs of customers
new customer segments
new talents and competencies
new marketing mix
new ecosystems
new go-to-market models
new production processes
megatrends!
…sharpen your strategy by understanding these trends
#2 discuss Megatrends internally
#3 draw conclusions and recommendations
#4 Communicate results internally and externally
#1 identify Megatrends to discuss
Mega trends
A way to assess these long-term trends
• Demographic trends – Ageing population – Migration patterns – Urbanization – Gap rich-poor – Generation Y – Generation Z – War for talent
• Environment and sustainability
– Climate change – Scarce resources – Peak oil – Water shortage – Food stress – Clean energy – Smart cities – Bio materials – Cradle-to-cradle – Micro sustainable innovations – Eco activism – Biomimicry
• Geopolitical trends – Power shift – Globalization 3.0 – Rising middle class – Energy dependence – The Market State
• Consumer & societal trends
– Mass customization – Ethical buying – ‘Buy local’ – Social & Group buying – Personalization – Sharing economy – Radical transparency – Massive Open Online Courses
(MOOCs) – Personal Health – Digital divide
• Technology trends – Big Data/ data science – Internet of Things (IoT) – Augmented Reality – Consumerization of IT (BYOD) – Technology ‘as a Service’ – Home 3D printing – Business 3D printing – Bioprinting – Enhanced Humans – Wearable Technologies
• Business trends – Life Cycle Assessment – Disintermediation – Crowdsourcing & funding – Open innovation – Gamification – Corporate Social Responsibility
(CSR) – Cause Marketing – Social Business Innovation – Social entrepreneurs – Intrapreneurship – Businesses get social – Holacracy – Virtualization of the corporation
www.fredericdemeyer.com
one hurricane is not a trend, it’s an event...
an increasing number of hurricanes in the US is a trend, not necessarily a megatrend
a worldwide increase in number and intensity of hurricanes would be a megatrend
and the consequences might trigger new (mega)trends
What are megatrends?
• long-lasting (>10 years)
• amplifying
• cause disruptive shift
• have a global impact
• not prone to change of taste or mood, lobby
My ‘rules of thumb’
#2 discuss Megatrends internally
#3 draw conclusions and recommendations
#4 Communicate results internally and externally
#1 identify Megatrends to discuss
Mega trends
A way to assess these long-term trends
The power of exchanging views and opinions
• No rules (great scotch) • Anything goes • No critisism • No ‘impossibles’
Teaser: what would be the advantage if planes would land upside down?
Results of the survey
…my advise to young trendwatchers
#1: read a(n awful) lot
#2: read even more…
#3: follow the start-up scene
#4: get efficient in researching evidence
#5: look for patterns and links
#6: constantly ask yourself “what does it mean?”
#7: build a (strong) opinion
• “In 20 years we will all be freelancers”
• “The role of government will become obsolete in 50 years”
• “Sustainable future will be driven by population, not government(s)”
#8: communicate… extensively!
Write articles for media friends
+240K views +900 downloads
Slideshare works
Blogs still work (for now)
Special mention…
Usual suspects
#9: look for role models (but remain yourself)
#10: offer things for free
ü charity ü non-‐profit ü audience of poten5al clients ü exis5ng clients ü conferences I would have paid for to a;end
#11: but not everything…
60 Megatrend Fact Sheets
(briefing document for long -term planning and innovation sessions)
@fdemeyer
fredericdemeyer.com
Instituteforfutureinsights
fdemeyer
#12: be patient…
2 years lead time
www.business-‐economics.be
#13: write a book…
About me…!
Sept 2011 – now Jan 2001 – Sept 2011 Sept 1999 – Dec 2000 Dec 1998 – Sept 1999 July 1998 – Nov 1998 Sept 1997 – June 1998 Sept 1995 – Aug 1997 <1995