usgs decision-making tools for pre-earthquake mitigation and … · 2008. 10. 11. · david wald...
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DAVID WALD United States Geological SurveyUnited States Geological Survey
NEHRP WorkshopNEHRP Workshop::Developing Earthquake Developing Earthquake
ScenariosScenariosSept 17Sept 17--18, 200818, 2008
San Francisco, CASan Francisco, CAUSGS National Earthquake
Information Center,Golden, Colorado
USGS Decision-Making Tools for Pre-EarthquakeMitigation and Post-Earthquake Response “Tools of the Trade”
USGS Earthquake Web Pages
Earthquake Notification Service (ENS)
“Did You Feel It?”
CISN Display
ShakeMap
ShakeCast
Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER)
Overview
Focus here primarily on hazard (shaking) side of the scenario, and related information tools.
ShakeMap “hand-off” to ShakeCast or HAZUS-MH for losses & comprehensive impact assessment.
These are situational awareness tools associated with real events thus, should be used for scenarios.
Tools available range from passive (web pages) to active (notifications), simple to sophisticated (applications), easy-to-install to substantial IT investments.
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U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Earthquake Notification Service (ENS)
• Sign up to receive notifications by email or cell/pda for any earthquake nationally (located by the regional networks of the ANSS) or nationally & globally (located by the NEIC).
• Customize your notifications based on geo-graphic boundaries, magnitude threshold & time of day.
• Multiple user profiles - get email for smaller earthquakes but get text messages for the big ones!
ENS
EarthquakeNotificationService
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ens/
“Did You Feel It?”Macroseismic data collection via the Internet
ShakeMapAutomatic shaking intensity maps from Seismic data
Acceleration (%g)
ShakeMap ShakeMap
M5.4 Alum Rock, CA Earthquake, Oct. 30, 2007M5.4 Alum Rock, CA Earthquake, Oct. 30, 2007
“Did You Feel It?”“Did You Feel It?”
64,000 responses; Max Rate 48/sec(!)(sustained rate of 22/sec for 30 min)
38K/30 min
M5.2 Illinois Earthquake, April 18, 2008M5.2 Illinois Earthquake, April 18, 2008
“Did You Feel It?”“Did You Feel It?”
ShakeMap ShakeMap “Did You Feel It?”“Did You Feel It?”
(9 Years of DYFI? Data)
Over 1 Million Individual Responses Nationally!
“Did You Feel it?”
• DYFI? Intensity Map as a part of situational awareness
• Constraints for ShakeMap (areas of low instrumentation, domestically & internationally)
• Input into FEMA’s HAZUS-MH, PAGER• Would be easy to mimic DYFI page
for a scenario?
REPLACE WITH UPDATE
ShakeMap Home PageShakeMap Home Page
ShakeMap Scenarios: Pacific NorthwestShakeMap Scenarios: Pacific Northwest
ShakeMap Scenarios: AlaskaShakeMap Scenarios: Alaska
2008 ShakeMap Scenarios: Southern California2008 ShakeMap Scenarios: Southern California
Nov 12, 2008 So. California “ShakeOut”Nov 12, 2008 So. California “ShakeOut”
ShakeMap “Download” PageShakeMap “Download” Page
Courtesy of D. Bausch, FEMA
Historic Earthquake ShakeMap “Atlas”Historic Earthquake ShakeMap “Atlas”
Atlas event: 1976 M7.6 Guatemala Earthquake
Atlas event: 1976 M7.6 Guatemala Earthquake
Vs30 Derived FromVs30 Derived FromTopographic Slope Topographic Slope
Topography & Vs30Topography & Vs30MeasurementsMeasurements
Taiwan
Topography & Topography & Vs30 measurements Vs30 measurements Vs30 From Slope Vs30 From Slope
Vs30 From Geology Vs30 From Geology (Wills et al. 2000) (Wills et al. 2000)
San Francisco Bay AreaSan Francisco Bay Area
Vs30 Derived From Topographic Slope Vs30 Derived From Topographic Slope Central and Eastern USCentral and Eastern US
Results – Mississippi Embayment
3c
30c
9c
ShakeMap Scenario Archive???ShakeMap Scenario Archive???
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U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological SurveyU.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
ShakeCastShakeMap BroadCast — Moving beyond “looking at” ShakeMap
Automatic Damage Assessment for Critical Facilities
Low
MediumMed High
High
Caltrans OverpassesDiv. Water Resources Dams
ShakeCastShakeCast
Special Special capabilitiescapabilities
for First for First Responders!Responders!
Other Other ShakeCast ShakeCast
Uses:Uses:
Global Global CitiesCities
ROVER: Rapid Observation of Vulnerability and Estimation of Risk• Implements FEMA 154 on smart phone
• Rapidly create an inventory buildings exposed to risk; ID those warranting detailed examination
• Integrated with HAZUS & ShakeCast
Based on slides from K. Porter
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U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response
PAGERPAGER Estimated Estimated ImpactImpact< 15 min< 15 min
Magnitude & Magnitude & EpicenterEpicenter< 15 min< 15 min
News AccountsNews Accounts~ hours to days~ hours to days
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U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
PAGER GoalsPAGER Goals
– Fundamentally change the nature of post-earthquake information: move beyond magnitude & hypocenter to estimate loss & provide situational awareness
– Primarily a tool for post-earthquake, rapid impact assessment (particularly fatalities); priority is in the developing world where fatalities are greatest
– Also, provide basis for earthquake loss mitigation, thru earthquake scenarios & vulnerability assessment
– Collaborative, international effort
– Open model & data environment; develop intermediate products, tools, & data sets for other uses/users
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U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
PAGER: Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response
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U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
PAGER: Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response
51,000
6,200Fatalities
Population Per Intensity
Seismic Intensity
Reported Intensities
PAGER
500Fatalities
33 fatalities
$40Bdamage
0 fatalities$200M
damage
Repeat of 1868 Hayward Fault (Magnitude 7.0):
IX: 450,000
VIII: 1,8600,000
Repeat of 1906 San Francisco (Magnitude 7.8):
IX: 611,000
VIII: 4,822,000
Future for Scenarios?Notifications from ENS/CISN Display.
ShakeMap for standardized products
o Need more comprehensive “Archive” of ShakeMap Scenarios
o Need search by location, name, magnitude, etc.
ShakeMap “hand-off” to ShakeCast, HAZUS-MH, etc., for losses & comprehensive impact assessment.
ShakeCast/Rover for exercises & utility/structure impact assessment.
PAGER for very rapid, overall impact assessment;
HAZUS-MH for detailed losses, needs, & maps.
AcknowledgmentsShakeMapShakeMap
Support & development by Bruce Worden, Vince Quitoriano, & Support & development by Bruce Worden, Vince Quitoriano, & KuoKuo--Wan LinWan LinOngoing operations of ShakeMap by NEIC, CISN, and other ANSS Ongoing operations of ShakeMap by NEIC, CISN, and other ANSS
regional Networks.regional Networks.
ShakeCastShakeCastFunding from Funding from USGSUSGS, , CaltransCaltrans, & the , & the American Lifeline Alliance American Lifeline Alliance Development by Development by KuoKuo--Wan Lin, Wan Lin, ww/ / HungryMindHungryMind Inc., Boulder.Inc., Boulder.Loren Turner, P.E., Senior Transportation Engineer, Caltrans: Loren Turner, P.E., Senior Transportation Engineer, Caltrans:
Management of Caltrans support, primary development & testing V2Management of Caltrans support, primary development & testing V2.0.0
PAGER:PAGER:Paul Earle, Mike Hearne, ....Paul Earle, Mike Hearne, ....Funding for USGS (from PresidentFunding for USGS (from President’’s Tsunami Supplemental)s Tsunami Supplemental)Funding from Funding from USAID/Office Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA)USAID/Office Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA)ANSS, Global Seismic Network (GSN)ANSS, Global Seismic Network (GSN)
Thank YouThank You
http://earthquake.usgs.gov