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Use of models and monitoring systems in theimplementation of international agreements ofpollution reduction

Global scale agreements of pollution reduction

Regional scale agreements – e.g. the LRTAP convention

Marine environment agreements – e.g. HELCOM and OSPARCOM conventions

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Trends of emissions and depositions in Europe, 1990 - 2001

Steering Body to EMEP, 8-10 September, 2003

MSC-E

Reduction Pb Cd Hg

Emissions 70% 45% 53%

Deposition 63% 35% 35%

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Changes of emissions and depositions in Europe, 1990 - 2001

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Changes of emissions and depositions in Europe, 1990 - 2001


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Italy, Russia, Spain, Poland, Germany, Ukraine, Romania

Pb

Spatial distribution

Emission data1990 1991 . . . 2001 2010

2323 t/y 1985 t/y 497 t/y 294 t/y


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Country–oriented information on HM and POP

Germany

Trends of in emissions, air concentrations and depositions in EMEP, 1990-2001


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Germany

Emissions Air concentrations

Deposition flux


Germany

Depositions to Germany

Depositions from Germany

Transboundary transport, 2001

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Contribution of external sources, %


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Germany, 2001

Comparison of modeling results with measurements

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Schmucke - DE8

Deuselbach - DE4

Schauinsland - DE3

Brotjacklriegel - DE5

Langenbrugge - DE2

Neuglobsow - DE7Zingst - DE9

Westrland - DE1

Monthly mean concentrations of Pb in air (ng/m3) and in precipitation (µg/l)


MSC-E

Germany, 2001

Definition of the problem:Definition of the problem:

Studies carried out in various countries in the 1970’s and 1980’s conclude on high contamination of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea by inorganic and organic toxic compounds and nutrients.

This contamination has been found to cause adverse environmental effects.

International cooperation is needed for elaboration and implementation of solutions to reduce contamination of the above mentioned seas.

International cooperation needed to solve International cooperation needed to solve environmental problems in the northern sea environmental problems in the northern sea

regionsregions

Paris Commission (PARCOM): Prevention of pollution of the North Sea from land-based sources: - signed by 1974, - entered into force in 1978, - in 1992 replaced by the Convention for the Marine

Environment of the North-East Atlantic “a 1995 target for 50% reductions of pollution load compared with 1985 levels of various heavy metals (incl. Hg, Pb, Cd) and POPs”.

International cooperation needed International cooperation needed ……..

Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (HELCOM) - entered into force in 1980, - in 1992 replaced by the Helsinki Convention of the

Protection of the Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea “a 1995 target for 50% reduction of emissions of certain heavy metals (incl. Hg, Pb, Cd) and POPs”.

Year Region

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Gulf of Bothnia

45 45 45 45 43 42 39 38 37 34 32

Gulf of Finland

22 23 22 22 22 21 19 18 18 16 17

North Baltic Proper

131 131 131 129 124 119 110 106 104 93 110

South Baltic Proper

75 74 74 73 69 66 62 61 60 57 55

Kattegat/Belt Sea

56 56 55 55 53 52 50 50 49 48 47

Total 329 329 327 324 311 300 280 273 268 247 261

Annual depositions of total (oxidized + reduced) nitrogen to the Baltic Seain the period 1986-1996 (in 103 tonnes N)

Pathway Period N, tonnes yr-1 P, tonnes yr-1

Riverine 1980-1993 830 000 41 000

Coastal point sources

1990 100 000 13 000

Atmospheric deposition

1985-1989 300 000 5 500

Major estimated annual inputs of nitrogen and phosphorusto the Baltic Sea

Chemical Gulf of Bothnia

Gulf of Finland

North Baltic Proper

South Baltic Proper

Kattegat/B elt Sea

Catchment area

Baltic Sea

Pb 69.8 53.1 193.8 169.6 79.0 3721.0 565.0

Cd 2.0 4.5 8.6 9.3 4.1 220.0 28.4

Hg 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.3 1.4 43.8 5.5

Lindane 1.3 1.4 4.1 3.1 1.6 82.7 11.5

Total atmospheric deposition of Pb, Cd, Hg and lindometo the Baltic Sea in 1996 (in tonnes)

The final report on implementation of theThe final report on implementation of the 1988 Ministerial Declaration1988 Ministerial Declaration

The report concluded that:“… the overall 50% reduction target has not been achieved for all polluting inputs, despite the efforts of the contracting parties.”

Remaining problems: Eutrophication resulting from high inputs of nutrients from

agriculture, transport and municipalities; Comparatively high concentrations of some heavy metals and

persistent organic pollutants; Illegal discharges from ships.

Lessons learned from the performance of work within Lessons learned from the performance of work within PARCOM (OSPARCOM) and HELCOMPARCOM (OSPARCOM) and HELCOM

1. The 1995 target has not been met completely.

WHY?

Lessons learnedLessons learned

Answer 1:

The 1995 target too ambitious and not fully supported by the substantiation studies on:

Basic features affecting impacts of pollutants on the environment - a gap in dialogue between “natural science” experts and

policy makers

Environmental protection strategies - a gap in dialogue between “engineering science” experts & economists and policy makers

Cost-benefit analysis of the 50% reduction strategies - a gap in dialogue between “social and economic science”

experts and policy makers

Affected ecosystem`s productivity (e.g.photosynthetic activity, nutrient cycling, species diversity), affecting its vulnerability to changes

Synergistic effects, possibilities for dilution

Natural background levels in the environment

Natural adaptions of organisms to external changes

BasicBasic features affecting impactsfeatures affecting impacts on the on the environmentenvironment

Lessons learned Lessons learned ……..

Answer 2:

Gaps in management of air pollutant generation and release, as well as insufficient use of economic instruments in pollution control - a gap in dialogue between policy makers in countries

within the conventions


Answer 3:

Incomplete implementation of action plan for emission reductions prepared within the conventions

- a gap in dialogue between policy makers and financial institutions within and outside the region

- a gap in dialogue between policy makers in various countries concerning joint financial responsibility for the implementation of the emission strategies. A positive example of ECOFUND in Poland established in 1992.

determination of the role of nutrients and organic and inorganic contaminants in ecosystem degradation,

determination of nutrient and contaminant loads, and establishment of reduction targets,

establishment of monitoring/ observation systems to detect and forecast changes in the Baltic ecosystem and to mitigate the effects of natural and anthropogenic hazards,

elimination of pollution hot spots, and

banning the use of PCBs and DDT

Successes in use of science in sustainable Successes in use of science in sustainable development of the Baltic Sea development of the Baltic Sea


2. A set of tools has been developed to:

- properly design and test the implementation of environmental strategies for reduction of atmospheric load of pollutants to the marine environment,

- provide substantiation for emission/load reduction strategies.


3. A large body of information has been collected on sources, pathways, fate, environmental and human health effects, and pollution abatement and its cost for “convention” pollutants in the northern seas regions. This data base can be used to: - prepare “environmental scenarios” for the next

20-30 years,

- elaborate implementation plans to meet the results of these scenarios.

reduction of the use of non-renewable energy and material resources,

increased recycling and reuse of materials,

development of agriculture towards sustainability, and more generally

closure of the economic and social gap between countries in the region

Major challenges in the Baltic Sea RegionMajor challenges in the Baltic Sea Region

the origin, transport pathways, fate, and environmental effects of chemicals in the sea,

the degree of reduction of the chemical load, needed for chemical and biological restoration of the Baltic sea (meeting predefined environmental goals),

the cost-efficient measures to meet these goals, and

the methods for monitoring the implementation of policies defined to meet the environmental goals

Science needed to address the following Science needed to address the following issuesissues

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