usda global crop assessments
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World Agricultural Outlook Board. USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS. Introduction. WAOB provides official government forecasts of agricultural commodities crop production, supply, and trade price forecasts U.S. livestock supply and use WAOB mission objectivity (unbiased information) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Introduction
World Agricultural Outlook Board
• WAOB provides official government forecasts of agricultural commodities– crop production, supply, and trade– price forecasts– U.S. livestock supply and use
• WAOB mission– objectivity (unbiased information)– reliability (sound data and analysis)– timelines (fast flow to users)
• Numerous data sources consulted to determine meteorological impacts on crop progress and conditions
USDA’s Economic
Intelligence System
Economic and Trend Analysis
U.S. and World
Weather
Travel Reports
Remote Sensing
Official Country Reports
Attaché Reports
USDA’s Economic Intelligence System
Farm Service Agency
Joint Agricultural
Weather Facility
Foreign Agricultural
Service
Economic Research Service
National Agricultural
Statistics Service
ERS Situation and Outlook
Reports
Weekly Weatherand
Crop Bulletin
World Agricultural
Outlook BoardDomestic
Production and Stocks Estimates
World Agricultural Supply and
Demand EstimatesFAS
Commodity Circulars
Long-term Baseline
Projections
World Agricultural Outlook Board
55.7Wheat
Soybean
Corn 20.3
34.4
78.1
45.246.7
U.S. Exports as Percent of ProductionWheat, Corn, and Soybeans
World Agricultural Outlook Board
76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02Year
010203040506070Billion Dollars
80100120140160180200220
MMT
U. S. AGRICULTURAL TRADEFiscal Year, 1976 - 2003
59.9
Exports in value
Bulk commodities exports in volume136.4
57.0 2003 Forecast
109.1
U.S. Agricultural TradeFiscal Year, 1976 - 2003
2001/02 estimate
2002/03 forecast
Change from last month
Change from last year
Planted area (million acres) 59.6 60.4 0.0 1.3Harvested area (million acres) 48.6 45.8 0.0 -5.8Yield (bushels per acre) 40.2 35.3 0.0 -12.2
Beginning stocks 876 777 0.0 -11.3Production 1,957 1,616 0.0 -17.4Imports 108 75 0.0 -30.3
Total supply 2,941 2,469 0.0 -16.1Food use 926 940 0.0 1.5Seed 84 84 -2.3 0.4Feed and residual 192 100 0.0 -48.0
Domestic use 1,202 1,124 -0.2 -6.5Exports 961 900 -2.7 -6.4
Total use 2,164 2,024 -1.3 -6.5Ending stocks 777 445 6.5 -42.8
Stocks to use ratio 35.9 22.0
Average market price 2.78 3.55/3.65 1.4/-3.9 27.7/31.3
Percent
Dollars per bushel
Million bushels
Percent
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
World Agricultural Outlook Board
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Supply UseBeginning Domestic Ending
Year Stocks Production Imports Feed Total Exports Stocks Million Metric Tons
2000/01 3.61 23.77 0.07 3.40 6.30 15.93 5.222001/02 5.22 24.00 0.08 3.45 6.48 16.41 6.412002/03 6.41 10.00 0.15 4.20 7.20 7.00 2.36
Supply UseBeginning Domestic Ending
Year Stocks Production Imports Feed Total Exports Stocks Million Metric Tons
2000/01 102.94 99.64 0.20 10.00 110.28 0.62 91.882001/02 91.88 93.87 1.09 9.00 108.74 1.51 76.592002/03 76.59 91.00 0.70 7.00 105.61 1.50 61.17
China Wheat Supply and Use, 2000/01- 2002/03
Australia Wheat Supply and Use, 2000/01- 2002/03
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Introduction
World Ending Stocks
3.55 - 3.65
4.55U.S. Wheat Price
171.5
207.0
World Wheat Ending Stocks & U.S. Wheat PricesMarketing Year, 1976 – 2002
54.8 Net Farm Income
Direct Government Payments 17.6
44.9 2003 Forecast
22.9
World Agricultural Outlook Board
U.S. Net Farm Income & Direct Government Payments1990 - 2003
El Niño
World Agricultural Outlook Board
• Below-normal precipitation is often observed in parts of Australia during El Niño episodes
• Satellite-derived sea-surface temperature data beneficial, providing an early warning of potential crop failure
• Historically, winter wheat yields are reduced in El Niño years, sometimes dramatically
Source: NOAA/NWS/CPChttp://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.html
Surface Weather Observations
World Agricultural Outlook Board
• Surface weather observations confirmed the development of drought, helping to quantify precipitation and temperature anomalies in major crop producing areas
Winter Grain/Oilseed Areas
% Normal PrecipLess than 25%
25 to 50%
50 to 75%
75 to 100%
100 to 150%
150 to 200%
200 to 400%
More than 400%
No Data
Percent Normal PrecipitationMay 1, 2002 - Aug 31, 2002
Satellite Data
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Source: NOAA/NWS/NCDChttp://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/servlets/SSMIBrowser
Source: NOAA/NESDIS/OSEI http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Dust/Australia/2002/DSTaust296_GM.jpg
• Remote-sensing data corroborated these surface weather observations, providing additional insight on climate anomalies (e.g., spatial extent of drought) and local extreme events (e.g., dust storms)
Higher Resolution Satellite Data
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Source: PECAD
2002 2001
Imagery illustrates better crop conditions in 2001 than in 2002
Northern New South Wales
Moderate to strong:
El Niño
South Africa Corn Yields
World Agricultural Outlook Board
South Africa Crop & Weather Data
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Early planting
Late planting
Vegetation conditions in eastern region are
below average
Source: PECAD
Source: PECAD
Source: PECAD
Winterkill Analyses
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Russia
Ukraine
Satellite-derived snow cover and surface temperature observations analyzed… snow cover protects dormant winter grains from bitterly cold weather in Russia
Source: NOAA/NESDIS/SSD http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SNOW/DATA/LOOP/asia-1mo-loop.html
Tropical Cyclones
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Mexico
Gulfof
Mexico
PacificOcean
forecast t
rack
Kenna - 130 kts winds
Hurricane Kenna Approaching Mexico24 October 2002 - 1715 GMT
Imagery Source: NOAA/NESDIS/SSD http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html
• Satellite imagery provides insight into the potential spatial extent of crop damage associated with land-falling tropical cyclones
• In this example, visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Kenna was imported into a GIS
• When such images are overlaid crop production and area data in a GIS, analysts can estimate storm impacts on crop progress and conditions
U.S. and South America Soybean Production
World Agricultural Outlook Board
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03
Billion bushels
United StatesSouth America
Source: PECAD
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Argentina
Paraguay
Bolivia
< 1 1-10 10-50 50-100 100+
1,000 Hectares per Municipio: (1996)
Source: IBGE Brazil Source: PECAD
Argentina
Paraguay
Bolivia
BRAZIL: Soybean Area Distribution BRAZIL: Vegetation Index – Jan 31, 2003
Sparse Vegetation
NDVI Vegetation Index
Dense Vegetation
Changes in Balance of First and Second Crops
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Ratio of First-Crop Soybeans to Total
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02p
2002/03f
First Second
• 82% of Argentina’s soybean planted area is expected to be planted to first-crop soybeans in 2002/03
• Average portion is 70%• First-crop soybean yields
average 2.49 tons/ha• Second-crop soybean yields
average 1.92 tons/ha
Source: SAGPyA, USDA
Changes in Crop Area
World Agricultural Outlook Board
January 16, 2003 Landsat-7 ETM Ch-4,5,3January 22, 2002 Landsat-7 ETM Ch-4,5,3
Landsat satellite imagery shows more area devoted to summer crops in 2002/03
Source: PECAD
Citrus Freeze
World Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Minimum Temperatures in Florida Orange Producing AreasJanuary 24, 2003
42
20
27
38
47
24
40
27
22
33
3329
34
46
29
28
39
48
49
2225
16
20
24
28
23
16 1918
27
16
31
36
22
30
34
27
22
23
28
34
26
18
24 22
38
Data obtained from synoptic weather stations andthe Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN)
Major Growing AreasMinor Growing Areas
LEGEND
Surface temperature observations indicate the potential for a damaging freeze in Florida citrus areas
Citrus Freeze
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Infrared satellite imagery can be used to show detail in areas where surface observations are not available
-10
0
10
T(C)
Source: NOAA/NWS/CPC – 4km IR image from GOES 8
02 February 2003
Wish List– Provide near real time availability– Develop new products, specifically those that quantify rather than qualify
• precipitation (values vs. “wet” or “dry”)• surface air temperature (values vs. “hot” or “cold”)• soil moisture/temperature• snow cover/depth• wind speed/direction
– Increase global coverage• penetrate cloud cover• expand country coverage
– Resolution, food for thought…• 32 km x 32 km (20 mi x 20 mi) would provide at least one measurement per county for
most counties. Same density targeted by NOAA for Cooperative Observer Network.• higher resolution needed for some specialty crops
– Develop data archive for purpose of establishing “normals”– Establish user-friendly data formats/downloading procedures