u.s. long product market & trade issues

U.S. Long Product Market & Trade Issues

Presentation by Bernd Neuenkirchen

U.S. Economic Growth

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Q3 2

007

Q4 2

007

Q1 2

008

Q2 2

008

Q3 2

008

Q4 2

008

Q1 2

009

Q2 2

009

Q3 2

009

Q4 2

009

Q1 2

010

Q2 2010

Q3 2

010

Q4 2

010

Q1 2

011

Q 2

2011

Q 3

2011

Q 4

2011

Q 1

2012

Q 2

2012

Q 3

2012

Q 4

2012

Q 1

2013

Q 2

2013

Q 3

2013

Q 4

2013

Q1 2

014

Q2 2

014

Q3 2

014

Q4 2

014

2015

Assumptions:Department of Commerce

One Trader's Opinion

U.S. Raw Steel Production Increases Slightly

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

2.200

NE

T T

ON

S X

1,0

00

2014 2013 2012 2011

2011 52 week average 1.834 million tons per week




U.S. Automotive Sales

The U.S. Housing Market

U.S. Construction Spending

Consumer Price Index

Selected Steel Import Data

-

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

400.000

450.000

500.000

ME

TR

IC T

ON

S

Hot Roll Sheet Rebar Wire Rod Cold Roll Sheet OCTG

AD and CVD Investigations of

Rebar from Mexico and TurkeyDOC’s Final Determination

Mexico (AD)• Deacero 20.58% (preliminary: 20.59%)

• Grupo Simec 66.70% (preliminary: 10.66%)

• Grupo Acerero 66.70% (preliminary: 66.70%)

• All Others 20.58% (preliminary: 20.59%)

The DOC also made an affirmative preliminary determination of critical circumstances with respect to all Mexican producers and exporters of rebar.

Turkey (AD)• Habas 0.00% (preliminary: 0.00%)

• ICDAS 0.00% (preliminary: 2.64%)

• All Others 0.00% (preliminary: 2.64%)

As the result of this negative final determination, the DOC will terminate the AD investigation of rebar from Turkey.

Turkey (CVD)• Habas 0.74% (de minimis) (preliminary: 0.78% (de minimis))

• ICDAS 1.25% (preliminary: 0.10% (de minimis))

• All Others 1.25%

As the result of its de minimis rate, Habas will be excluded from the CVD order.

The DOC made a negative determination of critical circumstances with regard to ICDAS but an affirmative determination with regard to all other

Turkish producers and exporters.

The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) is scheduled to make its final injury determination on October 14, 2014.

AD and CVD Investigation of

Chinese Wire Rods DOC’s Preliminary Determination

AD Investigation:

• Hunan Valin Xiangtan

• Jiangsu Shagang International Trade Co

• Rizhao Steel

• All others, including:

Benxi Beiying Iron & Steel

Tangshan Iron & Steel

Angang Group

Qingdao

Jiangsu Yonggang

Baotou

Retroactive date: June 10, 2014

CVD Investigation:

• Benxi Group 10.30% - Negative Critical Circumstance

• Heibei Iron & Steel including Tangshan 81.36% - Affirmative Critical Circumstances

• All Others 10.30%

Retroactive Date: April 9, 2014

Expected Final Determination: November 12, 2014

106.19% - Negative Critical Circumstances

110.25% - Affirmative Critical Circumstances

Countries under AD/CVD orderSteel Reinforcing Bars

Country Type of Trade Case Affected Party Duty Percentage

Belarus AD All Producers 114.53

China AD Laiwau Steel 133

AD All Others 133

Indonesia AD Eight Mills 71.01

AD All Others 60.46

Latvia AD Liepajas Metalurgs 4.87

AD All Others 17.21

Moldova AD All Producers 232.86

Ukraine AD All Producers 41.69

Mexico AD/CVD All Producers Various

Turkey CVD All Except Habas 1.25

Countries under AD/CVD orderCarbon Steel Wire Rod

Country Type of Trade Case Affected Party Duty Percentage

Brazil CVD Belgo Mineira 6.74

CVD Gerdau 2.76

CVD All Others 5.64

AD Belgo Mineira 98.69

AD All Others 74.45

Indonesia AD Ispat Indonesia 0

AD All Others 4.06

Mexico AD Ternium 17.94

AD De Acero 12.08

AD Arcelor Mittal (Sicartsa) 5.59

AD All Others 20.11

Moldova AD All Producers 369.11

Trinidad & Tobago AD Arcelor Mittal 23.95

AD All Others 11.40

China AD/CVD All Producers Various

Imports of Steel Reinforcing Bars

1.531.016

880.579

380.462

468.588

594.203

884.900

1.070.214

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

1.400.000

1.600.000

1.800.000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

IMP

OR

TS

IN

ME

TR

IC T

ON

S

2007 - 2013

Worldwide Mexico Turkey

2014 U.S. Imports of Rebarin Total and by Selected Countries (in ‘000 MT)

World Turkey Mexico Japan Spain Korea Peru Portugal

January 195 125 32 5 21 0 0 6

February 83 44 23 11 3 0 0 0

March 139 106 21 0 0 2 6 0

April 114 66 13 5 7 16 5 0

May 75 47 0.2 3 0 17 0 0

June 63 58 0.2 0 0 4 0 0

July 40 28 0 4 0 0 0.6 0

August 136 97 0.2 19 17 0 0 0

September

2382 50 0.3 10 0 0 14 7

Total 927 621 89.9 57 48 39 25.6 13

Imports of Carbon Steel Wire Rods

1.369.849

1.091.764

631.976

1.109.300

831.910881.309

677.456

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

1.400.000

1.600.000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

IMP

OR

TS

IN

ME

TR

IC T

ON

S

2007—2013

Worldwide Canada Japan Turkey China

2014 U.S. Imports Wire Rod in Total and by Selected Countries (in ‘000 MT)

World China Canada Turkey Japan Brazil Korea UK

January 129 66 34 0 6 8 6 7

February 87 31 26 0 10 9 2 5

March 117 50 31 0 10 10 4 6

April 201 112 35 1 13 10 6 9

May 153 71 33 3 8 10 11 5

June 136 2 34 44 10 8 26 7

July 76 3 34 0 12 10 4 0.3

August 109 0 34 28 9 7 6 4

September

23105 0 25 28 8 10 9 0.6

Total 1,113 335 286 104 86 82 74 43.9

Canadian AD Investigations of

Rebar from China, Korea, and Turkey CBSA Preliminary Dumping Determinations Effective September 11, 2014

China

Shiheng Special Steel Group Co., Ltd.• AD margin: 25.4%

• CVD margin: 0.6%

• Total AD/CVD Margin: 26.0%

All Other Chinese Exporters• AD margin: 32.9%



Turkey

Habaş Sinai ve Tıbbi Gazlar Istihsal Endüstrisi A.S.• AD margin: 15.2%



All Other Turkish Exporters• AD margin: 32.9%



Korea

Hyundai Steel Company• AD margin: 14.5%



Hyundai Corporation• AD margin: 21.5%



G.S. Global Corporation• AD margin: 25.6%



All Other Korean Exporters• AD margin: 32.9%



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