u.s. federal corporate tax reform: potential …...corporate income tax rate to be reduced...
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“Best Renewable Asset M&A Advisor”- Power Finance & Risk
Investment Bankers for
Global Energy and Infrastructure Markets
Marathon Capital U.S. Federal Corporate Tax Reform
Potential Impact on U.S. Renewable Energy Financing
January 2017
Contacts & Disclaimer
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Matt Shanahan Managing Director
(312) 989-1352 [email protected]
John Wisniewski Associate
(312) 989-1365 [email protected]
Greg Andiorio Associate, Tax & Structuring
(312) 989-1378 [email protected]
Marathon Capital, LLC www.marathon-cap.com
This White Paper presentation (“White Paper”) has been prepared by Marathon Capital, LLC and Marathon Capital Markets, LLC (collectively, “Marathon Capital”) solely for discussion and evaluation purposes. The White Paper should not be used as a basis for trading in the securities or loans of the companies named herein or for any other investment decision. This document does not constitute an offer to sell securities and should not be construed as investment advice. The White Paper does not constitute a recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of the investor.
The White Paper is conveyed by Marathon Capital based on our belief that the recipient can independently evaluate investment risks and is using independent judgment in its evaluation process.
Although reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information given in this White Paper is accurate, it has not been independently verified. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions expressed in this White Paper and, to the maximum extent permitted by law, any and all liability in respect of such information and opinions is hereby expressly excluded, including, without limitation, any liability arising from fault or negligence, for any loss arising from the use of this information or otherwise arising in connection with it.
Marathon Capital makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this White Paper.
This material is not for distribution.
About the Authors
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Matt Shanahan Managing Director
Matt Shanahan is Managing Director at Marathon Capital and leads the firm’s growing tax equity practice. He has over 20 years of experience in structuring, syndication and management of large complex corporate finance transactions. Since joining Marathon in 2010, Mr. Shanahan has closed over $1.3 billion of tax equity related transactions in the solar and wind sectors, including partnership flips, sale-leasebacks, and tax-advantaged restructurings. Key clients have included Santander, NRG, Rockland Capital, Kruger Energy and Edison Mission Energy.
Prior to joining Marathon Capital, Mr. Shanahan held senior investment banking positions at The CIT Group, Inc., Newcourt Credit Group, Bank of America Leasing and Capital Group, and The Deerpath Group Inc. In those positions he was responsible for structuring and syndicating US domestic tax leases, US project finance leveraged leases, US and UK cross-border tax leases, partnership financings, and structured debt financings. Throughout his career Mr. Shanahan has focused on tax-based financings in the energy and transportation sectors, including those for hydro-electric, geothermal, natural gas, solar, wind and coal generation facilities, Section 29 tax credit monetization, rail operating leasing partnerships, and corporate and commercial aircraft.
Mr. Shanahan received a BA in Economics from Kenyon College and a MBA from the JL Kellogg Graduate School of Management (Northwestern University). Mr. Shanahan holds his Series 7, 24, 63 and 79 licenses.
Greg Andiorio Associate, Tax & Structuring
Greg Andiorio joined Marathon Capital as Associate, Tax and Structuring in 2016. Mr. Andiorio’s primary responsibilities include supporting Marathon Capital’s senior bankers on tax equity engagements, assisting on complex structuring assignments, and serving as an in-house tax expert across various engagements and opportunities.
Prior to joining Marathon Capital, Mr. Andiorio was a Senior Manager in the Mergers and Acquisitions – Tax practice at KPMG LLP, leading cross-border tax structuring, modeling, and due diligence engagements for U.S. multinational clients, as well as advising clients in the energy industry on tax attribute planning and other tax issues associated with bankruptcy restructurings.
Mr. Andiorio received a B.S. in Accountancy and a M.S. in Accountancy with a Concentration in Taxation from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and is a Certified Public Accountant. Mr. Andiorio holds his Series 79 license.
John Wisniewski Associate
John Wisniewski is an Associate responsible for leading complex structuring assignments, creating detailed financial models, conducting due diligence, evaluating market dynamics and transactional risk/return parameters, collaborating on strategic transaction positioning and preparing investment marketing materials in support of Marathon Capital's senior bankers in their relationship management responsibilities. Since joining the firm in 2014, Mr. Wisniewski has worked on a variety of corporate and asset-level transactions, including M&A advisory, tax equity and partnership structuring and capital raises for clients including Main Street Power, Wind Capital Group, Mexico Power Group, FLS Energy and Empower Energies.
Prior to joining Marathon Capital, Mr. Wisniewski was a Senior Associate on the finance team at SoCore Energy, a solar distributed generation developer. While at SoCore, Mr. Wisniewski was responsible for a number of roles including structuring leveraged finance and tax equity transactions and managing the acquisition process of the company by Edison International. Previously, Mr. Wisniewski was an Analyst in the Global Industrials Investment Banking Group at Citi, where he worked on a variety of mergers and acquisitions, leveraged buyouts, and debt and equity financings in the metals and mining, diversified industrials and automotive industry sectors.
Mr. Wisniewski graduated from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign where he received a B.S. in Finance with Highest Honors distinction. Mr. Wisniewski holds his Series 63 and 79 licenses.
Executive Summary
In light of the November 2016 election results, the combination of a Republican President-elect and Republican control of both the House and
Senate suggests a strong possibility of U.S. corporate tax reform. The two major Republican tax reform proposals have a number of different
provisions, though a common theme and cornerstone of both is a decrease in the U.S. federal corporate income tax rate
U.S. renewable energy projects generate a portion of their value from accelerated tax depreciation deductions. The value of those deductions
would decrease as the U.S. federal corporate income tax rate is reduced
The potential decrease in value is not uniform across renewable energy projects since the impact varies based on different tax incentives and
contractual structures. In general, wind project economics are more sensitive to a tax rate decrease than solar projects, and certain wind projects
(e.g. projects with long-term PPAs at current market rates) are more sensitive to a tax rate decrease than other wind projects
– Our analysis shows that after-tax returns for wind projects would decrease by 40 to 120 basis points, while solar projects would experience no
material impact
If the value of a wind project decreases with a reduction in the U.S. federal corporate income tax rate, who bears the risk of that loss?
– For wind projects financed by tax equity partnerships, if tax equity investors are able to shift that risk to the sponsor, the sponsor returns
would be adversely impacted by ~80 to ~240 basis points
To restore sponsor returns to current market levels, build costs would need to decrease by ~8% while off-take prices would need to increase by
~10% in a 15% tax rate environment
In summary, while a reduction in the U.S. federal corporate income tax rate would have an impact on the valuation of wind projects, the market
should be able to absorb the potential loss in value through some combination of adjustments to off-take prices, build costs, and/or sponsor
returns
We think that the uncertainty created by the prospect of tax reform, with imperfect knowledge of what it would contain, should drive tax equity
investors to larger, better-capitalized sponsors that are able to absorb the risk of tax changes through indemnities or higher upfront investments,
which in turn should drive consolidation in the U.S. renewable energy sector
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Table of Contents
Sections
I. U.S. Federal Corporate Tax Reform & Potential Impact on U.S. Renewable Energy Financing 6
Appendix I - Tax Rate Sensitivity Analysis on the Sample Projects 19
Appendix II - Detailed Wind Project Analysis 23
Appendix III - Detailed Solar Project Analysis 34
Table of Contents
Section I
U.S. Federal Corporate Tax Reform & Potential Impact on U.S. Renewable Energy Financing
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Background
In light of the November 2016 election results, the combination of a Republican President-elect and Republican control of both the House and Senate
suggests a strong possibility of U.S. corporate tax reform
While tax reform could present a number of changes to the U.S. tax system, one of the most impactful and likely changes appears to be a decrease in the
marginal corporate tax rate
– Both the Republican tax reform blueprint (the “Blueprint”) published in June 2016 and President-elect Trump’s tax reform proposal call for the
corporate income tax rate to be reduced significantly (to 20% in the Blueprint and to 15% in President-elect Trump’s plan)
– While both tax reform proposals contain other changes that could impact the U.S. renewable energy sector, the tax rate cut is the cornerstone of both
proposals and therefore is the focus of this White Paper. Given the potential impact to U.S. renewable energy projects, we also included an analysis of
the proposal for a 100% write-off of capital expenditures in the first year and elimination of net interest expense deductions
In this White Paper, Marathon Capital seeks to determine how a decrease in U.S. federal corporate income tax rates* would impact the U.S. renewable
energy financing landscape. We analyzed the impact a tax rate decrease would have on the economics of both 2017 COD wind and solar projects,
existing operating projects, and sponsor and tax equity membership interests in partnerships owning projects
Our working assumptions are that (i) Production Tax Credits (“PTCs”) and Investment Tax Credits (“ITCs”) extended in December 2015 will remain in
place as they phase out over the balance of this decade, (ii) any tax reform would allow such credits to continue to offset corporate tax liabilities as under
current law, and (iii) whatever changes become law would remain in place for the duration of the analysis period (i.e. 30+ years)
The impact of tax rate decrease on a given project varies based on a number of factors, including the type of tax incentive (i.e. PTC versus ITC), the tax
depreciation schedule, the technology utilized, the type of off-take agreement, power prices, and the tax equity financing structure. In order to illustrate
the relative economic impact across a variety of projects, we performed both project and tax equity partnership structuring analyses for the following
four types of projects common in the U.S. renewable energy market (the “Sample Projects”):
– Moderate net capacity factor wind project with a 20-year PPA claiming the PTC (the “Wind PPA Project”)
– High net capacity factor wind project with a hedge claiming the PTC (the “Wind Hedge Project”)
– Utility-scale solar project with a 20-year PPA claiming the ITC (the “Solar PPA Project”)
– Utility-scale solar project with both a contracted off-take and a 5-year contracted Solar Renewable Energy Credit (“SREC”) strip (the “Solar SREC
Project”)
Detailed descriptions of the inputs and structuring assumptions for each Sample Project are summarized in Appendix II and Appendix III
Given the uncertainty in timing and nature of tax reform, we assessed the impact of a tax rate decrease from the current 35% level to either 25% or 15%
starting in 2017
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* Throughout this White Paper, all references to the “tax rate” or “tax rates” refer to U.S. federal corporate income tax rates only
Key Observations
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Our Tax Rate Sensitivity analysis shows that the returns from certain types of projects rely more heavily on Non-Tax
Credit Tax Benefits than others, and therefore, such projects would be more significantly impacted by a tax rate
decrease. We measure a project’s sensitivity to changes in tax rates by calculating the percentage of a project’s
present value created by Non-Tax Credit Tax Benefits (the “Tax Rate Sensitive Value” or “TRSV”)
We refer to projects in which a higher proportion of value is driven by Non-Tax Credit Tax Benefits as having high
Tax Rate Sensitive Values. Conversely, we refer to projects in which a lower proportion of value is driven by Non-
Tax Credit Tax Benefits as having low Tax Rate Sensitive Values
The higher the Tax Rate Sensitive Value for a project, or the more the project relies on Non-Tax Credit Tax Benefits
to drive value, the more the project would be negatively impacted by a tax rate decrease
Tax Rate Sensitivity
U.S. renewable energy projects have three drivers of value: cash distributions, tax deferrals created from accelerated
depreciation deductions (“Non-Tax Credit Tax Benefits”), and tax credits (i.e. PTCs or ITCs). The value of cash
distributions and tax credits are not impacted by changes in tax rates
However, a decrease in the tax rate would make Non-Tax Credit Tax Benefits (i.e. MACRS depreciation and bonus
depreciation) less valuable
General
Wind projects have higher Tax Rate Sensitive Values than solar projects as they typically have lower power prices, higher operating expenses, higher discount rates, and a heavier reliance on tax benefits
For 2017 COD wind projects, unlevered after-tax project returns would be adversely impacted by ~40-60 basis points if the tax rate decreased to 25% in 2017, or ~80-120 basis points if the tax rate decreases to 15%. Even tax efficient sponsors that are able to utilize tax credits and tax losses as they are generated would see a decrease of ~40-80 basis points in unlevered returns and a decrease of ~50-100 basis points in levered returns
For 2017 COD solar projects, project returns would not be adversely impacted by a tax rate decrease in 2017 and would be positively impacted by a rate decrease in 2018 or later. Returns for tax efficient sponsors would not be materially impacted by a 2017 tax rate decrease; however, levered returns would see a moderate negative impact
Wind and Solar Projects
Experience a Very
Different Economic
Impact
The relationship between the year a project achieves COD and the year the tax rate is decreased is critical to this analysis. After a certain point in a project’s life, a tax rate decrease would improve a project’s economics because the majority of the project’s Non-Tax Credit Tax Benefits were realized at a 35% tax rate, while the taxable income generated is taxed at a lower rate
For wind projects, a tax rate decrease in year one or two would have an adverse impact on project economics. From year three, a tax rate decrease would either have a neutral impact on or improve the project’s economics
For solar projects, a tax rate decrease in year one would have a neutral impact on project economics. From year two
and thereafter, a tax rate decrease would have a positive impact on project economics
Timing of a Potential Tax
Rate Decrease Matters
Impact on Development Projects
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2017 COD Wind Projects 2017 COD Solar Projects
Project Level Economics
Wind projects have higher Tax Rate Sensitive Values than solar
projects, and are therefore impacted more significantly by a tax
rate decrease
If the tax rate decreases to 25% in 2017, wind project level after-
tax returns would decrease by ~40-60 bps; a decrease to 15%
would cause the project return to drop by ~80-120 bps. Projects
with lower net capacity factors and lower off-take prices would
see decreases to returns at the higher end of the range as
illustrated in Table 6 – Impact of 2017 Tax Rate Decrease on
Sample Project Tax Rate Sensitive Values
Solar projects typically have higher cash flow and less reliance
on tax deferrals than wind projects, and therefore would not be
impacted as severely as wind projects
A decrease in the 2017 tax rate would be neutral to the project
level return on most solar projects as illustrated in Table 6 –
Impact of 2017 Tax Rate Decrease on Sample Project Tax Rate
Sensitive Values. A decrease after 2017 would improve solar
project economics
Tax Equity Economics
The tax equity investor’s economics would be negatively
impacted by a tax rate decrease in 2017 as a significant portion
of the investor’s return is driven by accelerated depreciation
deductions, which would be worth less at a lower tax rate
Tax equity investors would either have to reduce their upfront
investment or increase their share of cash flow in order to keep
yields constant
A tax rate decrease after 2017 (e.g. in 2018, 2019, or 2020) would
have a less severe impact
Similar to wind projects, the tax equity investor’s economics
would deteriorate if tax rates decrease in the first few years of a
project
However, given that the impact on overall project economics is
not as pronounced as in wind projects, in many cases, the tax
equity investor’s upfront investment could decrease or cash
sharing could increase without hurting the sponsor’s
economics
Sponsor Economics
Assuming that tax equity investors either reduce their
investment, increase cash sharing, or insist on full
indemnification from tax rate decreases, sponsors on wind
projects would need to focus on either reducing capital costs or
improving offtake pricing in order to maintain return levels in
the current 35% tax rate market
In most cases, the benefit to sponsors of the lower tax rate in
periods after a solar project turns tax positive would outweigh
the negative impact of either lower tax equity sizing or a higher
portion of cash flow allocated to tax equity
Solar projects would require minor structural changes, but
such changes should not create significant deal issues
Impact on Operating Projects
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Our analysis of the Sample Projects shows that for wind projects, a
tax rate decrease in the first two years after COD would have an
adverse impact on the overall project economics; a decrease in the
third year would be roughly neutral and a decrease beyond year
three would improve project returns
For solar projects, a tax rate decrease in the first year of the project
would be neutral to the overall project economics, while a decrease
in year two and beyond would have a positive impact
The yield impact for tax efficient sponsors that own projects without
third party tax equity would mimic the impact on project-level
returns on an unlevered basis. Levered tax efficient returns would be
slightly lower due to the lower benefit of interest deductions with a
lower tax rate
For a wind project financed with tax equity, a tax rate decrease in the
first three years would have an adverse impact on the tax equity
investment, while there would be a neutral impact from a decrease
in the fourth year, and positive impact in year five and beyond
– Wind Projects – Tax Rate Decrease Impact to Flip Date
For a solar project financed with tax equity, a tax rate decrease in the
first two years would have an adverse impact on the tax equity
investment. There would be a neutral impact from a decrease in year
three, and a positive impact from a decrease in year three and
beyond
– Solar Projects – Tax Rate Decrease Impact to Flip Date
The sharing of negative and positive exposure to a tax rate decrease
between the tax equity investor and sponsor is a function of the
specific structure and terms of the agreement
In a sale-leaseback, the sponsor does not typically indemnify the tax
equity investor for losses related to a change in the tax rate.
Therefore, the tax equity investor would bear the positive or
negative exposure to a decrease in the tax rate
In “time-based” partnership flip structures used in some solar
projects, a decrease in the tax rate would not change the flip date, so
the detriment or benefit of a lower tax rate would be borne by the
tax equity investor
In “yield-based” partnership flip structures used in all wind projects
and many solar projects, the tax rate used in tracking tax equity’s
running IRR may be a “Fixed Tax Assumption”
– If so, the flip IRR is calculated using the tax rate set out in the
Fixed Tax Assumption (e.g. 35%) even if the actual tax rate
changes. Therefore, any benefit or detriment from a change in tax
rates would be borne by the tax equity investor
– If there is not a Fixed Tax Assumption, a change in the actual tax
rate would either accelerate or push out the flip date. Therefore,
any benefit or detriment from a change in tax rates would be
borne by the sponsor
Importance of Tax Rate Change Timing Risk Allocation
The impact of a change in tax rates on an operating project’s economics depends on the point in a project’s life that the tax rate change occurs. A tax rate decrease after the majority of Non-Tax Credit Tax Benefits have been realized would have either a neutral
or positive impact on a project’s economics
How Will Tax Equity Investors React to a Tax Rate Decrease?
As a result of the disproportionate allocation of taxable income before and after the flip date, negative tax rate exposure naturally rests on the tax
equity investor because the tax equity investor is typically allocated 99% of tax losses during the MACRS period and only 5% of positive taxable
income after the flip date
Given the stability in corporate tax rates since 1986, tax equity investors have not typically been overly concerned with the risk of a change in tax
rates. In some cases, the risk has been absorbed by the tax equity investor through the use of Fixed Tax Assumptions, while in others, the risk has
been allocated to the sponsor through the use of actual tax rates when calculating the flip date
We anticipate that heightened expectation of tax reform and the potential negative impact of a tax rate decrease on tax equity investor returns
would motivate tax equity investors to either reduce their upfront investment, increase their pre-flip cash distributions, or insist on full
indemnification from the sponsor in order to maintain their target return and/or flip date
– The detailed analyses in Appendix II and Appendix III consider how much of a reduction in upfront investment or increase in pre-flip cash
distributions tax equity investors would need in order to maintain current return levels
• Appendix II - Detailed Wind Project Analysis:
– Tax equity’s upfront investment would decrease by ~5% to ~10% of total cost under a 25% and 15% tax rate, respectively; or,
– Increase tax equity’s pre-flip cash distributions by an incremental ~18% to ~37% under a 25% and 15% tax rate, respectively
• Appendix III - Detailed Solar Project Analysis:
– Tax equity investment would decrease by ~2% to ~4% of total cost under a 25% and 15% tax rate, respectively; or,
– Increase tax equity’s pre-flip cash distributions by an incremental ~10% to ~18% for the Solar PPA Project and ~3% to ~5% for the Solar
SREC Project under a 25% and 15% tax rate, respectively
Electing bonus depreciation for a 2017 COD project could be an effective strategy to reduce tax rate risk. The impact of a tax rate decrease in 2018
or beyond is effectively eliminated given that most of the valuable tax depreciation would be claimed in year one at the 35% tax rate. However,
electing bonus depreciation may require tax equity investors to take on larger deficit restoration obligations, which could create structuring
issues
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In response to either expectation of a tax rate decrease or an actual tax rate decrease, tax equity investors may decrease their investment size, increase their share of cash flow, or request full indemnification from the sponsor for a resulting decrease to their
after-tax cash flow
How Will Tax Equity Investors React to a Tax Rate Decrease? (Cont’d)
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For wind projects, where the impact of a tax rate decrease on tax
equity investment performance is more pronounced, some investors
may size their upfront tax equity investment based on a lower tax
rate assumption
If a tax equity investor sizes their investment based on a lower tax
rate, but rates either do not actually decrease or do not decrease as
much as expected, how can the structure be tailored to prevent flip
date acceleration and a “stranding” of PTCs?
– We anticipate seeing more deferred tax equity investment
structures. For example, “Pay Go” structures could be used in
wind projects to increase “out year” tax equity contributions and
push the actual flip date back to the target date
If the tax rate decreases, tax equity investors would likely either
decrease their upfront investment or increase their share of pre-flip
cash, both of which would increase the sponsor’s required
investment
– For wind projects, this would cause the sponsor’s after-tax IRR to
decrease by either ~80 to ~240 basis points
– For solar projects, the sponsor’s required investment would also
increase, but the cost of the higher investment would largely be
offset by the benefits of a lower tax rate applied to the sponsor’s
share of taxable income. As a result, the sponsor’s after-tax IRR
would experience a neutral to positive impact
Overall, we expect that increased sponsor investment requirements,
driven even by the expectation of a tax rate decrease, and the
potential increased indemnity requirements associated with
prospective tax reform would incentivize tax equity investors to
focus on the larger, better-capitalized sponsors, and increase
consolidation in the wind business
A decrease in the tax equity investment or increase in tax equity share of pre-flip cash distributions would
trigger an increase in the sponsor’s required investment and reduce the sponsor’s return on wind projects
What type of deals would be most significantly impacted? How would sponsor economics be impacted?
Impact of a Tax Rate Decrease on the Supply of Tax Equity
A decrease in the tax rate would, on its face, reduce the aggregate U.S. corporate tax liability by as much as 28% or 57% in 25% and 15% tax rate cases,
respectively
Both the Blueprint and President-elect Trump’s tax reform proposal include tax changes that would have both negative and positive impacts on aggregate U.S.
corporate income tax liabilities:
– Taxation of non-repatriated foreign earnings at a reduced rate
• Currently, earnings of non-U.S. subsidiaries are not subject to U.S. income tax until the earnings are repatriated to the U.S. The Blueprint calls for a one-
time tax on overseas earnings of either 8.75% or 3.5% (depending on the type of earnings) payable over an 8-year period. Similarly, the Trump proposal
calls for a one-time tax on overseas earnings of 10%. Although the Trump proposal would eliminate deferrals of undistributed earnings of foreign
affiliates, by moving to a “territorial” tax system, it would limit the long-term increase in taxes on non-U.S. earnings
• Impact on the Supply of Tax Equity: This change would generate more taxable income and increase the supply of tax equity
– 100% expensing of capital expenditures in the first year
• Impact on the Supply of Tax Equity: This change would reduce corporate tax liabilities and decrease the supply of tax equity
– Elimination of net interest expense deductions by corporations
• Impact on the Supply of Tax Equity: This change would increase corporate income tax liabilities and increase the supply of tax equity
In the Blueprint, 100% expensing of capital expenditures in the first year and elimination of net interest expense deductions are presented as a “package” and
are intended to largely offset each other
Our expectation is that aggregate U.S. corporate tax liabilities would decrease to some extent. However, it would be challenging to pass a tax reform package
through the budget reconciliation process (i.e. with only Republican support) that results in a material permanent revenue loss. Tax reform enacted outside of
the budget reconciliation process would require a minimum of 60 votes in the Senate and therefore the support of at least eight Democrats. A bi-partisan tax
reform package could look significantly different than either the Blueprint or Trump proposals
The numerous proposed changes to the tax code could shift the tax burden amongst corporate taxpayers and therefore the tax equity investor landscape
– While the impact of the Blueprint’s proposal for 100% expensing of capital expenditures and elimination of net interest deductions are designed to offset on
a macro level, the corporations with the largest capital expenditures are not necessarily the ones with the highest interest deductions
– Taxation of non-repatriated foreign earnings would significantly increase the tax liabilities of technology companies relative to financial companies, since
they typically derive a larger proportion of their earnings from non-U.S. businesses
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If tax rates decrease, would the aggregate U.S. corporate tax liability decrease to the point where both the number
of potential tax equity investors decreases and the supply of tax equity contracts?
Impact of a Tax Rate Decrease on the Capital Stack
In order to maintain the target tax equity flip date for a 2017 COD project in light of a 2017 tax rate decrease, or the expectation of a decrease, tax equity
investors would either need to decrease their upfront investment or increase their share of project cash flow
We expect that the share of cash required to be distributed to tax equity (i.e. 60-80%) in order to preserve the flip date would present too much project exposure
for most tax equity investors. It is more likely that most investors would prefer to reduce their upfront investment
If a tax equity investor assumes in their financial structuring evaluation that the tax rate will be reduced to 15% in 2017, the tax equity upfront investment
would need to decrease by ~10% of total capital costs for a wind project and ~4% of total capital costs for a solar project to keep tax equity yields constant
A reduction in the upfront tax equity investment by ~10% would in turn reduce a construction lender’s advance against the tax equity takeout. This creates a
“funding gap” for the sponsor, even before a tax rate decrease has occurred, which would require more sponsor equity or a backstop such as a corporate
guaranty or letter of credit to bridge the difference
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Even with just the possibility of a tax rate decrease, sponsor equity requirements could increase for wind
projects, either through a higher direct investment or corporate guarantees and letters of credit
66%
14%
69%
14%
20% 17%
Notice to Proceed Commercial Operation Date
56%
14%
59%
14%
20% 17%
10% 10%
Notice to Proceed Commercial Operation Date
35% Tax Rate in 2017
Table 1 – Sample Wind Project – Impact of a Tax Rate Decrease on the Capital Stack
Sample Wind Project Capital Stack Funding Gap
Construction Tax Equity Bridge Loan
Tax Equity Investment
Sponsor Equity
Sponsor Equity Funding Gap
Construction to Back Leverage Term Loan
Back Leverage
15% Tax Rate in 2017
How Will Wind Sponsors React to a Tax Rate Decrease?
If either a tax rate decrease occurs or tax equity investors adjust their pricing in expectation of a tax rate decrease, would sponsors be able to restore returns to levels under the current 35% corporate tax rate market conditions?
This will likely be a more significant question on wind projects where the benefit of a lower tax rate once the project turns tax positive does not naturally restore the sponsor’s economics. Sponsors on wind projects could have significant exposure and may need to focus on lowering capital costs and/or increasing power prices
In the tables below, we quantified the adjustment to the following variables needed to restore unlevered after-tax IRRs:
– Build Cost: What is the required decrease in build costs should tax rates drop to 25% or 15% in 2017?
– Off-Take Rate: What is the required increase in off-take rates should tax rates drop to 25% or 15% in 2017?
Build costs would need to decrease by ~8%, while PPA prices would need to increase by ~10%, to maintain the unlevered after-tax IRR. If the tax rate decreases, we predict that there would be market pressure to increase off-take rates or significant upstream pressure from sponsors to decrease project costs or costs of capital
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2017 Wind Project Breakeven Build Cost ($/kW) 2017 Wind Project Breakeven Off-Take Price ($/MWh)
$1,500
$1,450
$1,415
$1,500
$1,435
$1,380
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Hedge Project PPA Project
Off-Take Arrangement Hedge PPA
Base Case Build Cost ($/kW) $1,500 $1,500
25% Tax Rate
Breakeven Build Cost ($/kW) $1,450 $1,435
% Change Relative to Base Case (3.3%) (4.3%)
15% Tax Rate
Breakeven Build Cost ($/kW) $1,415 $1,380
% Change Relative to Base Case (5.7%) (8.0%)
Off-Take Arrangement Hedge PPA
Base Case Off-Take Rate ($/MWh) $24.00 $30.75
25% Tax Rate
Breakeven Off-Take Rate ($/MWh) $26.50 $32.50
% Change Relative to Base Case +10.4% +5.7%
15% Tax Rate
Breakeven Off-Take Rate ($/MWh) $28.25 $33.85
% Change Relative to Base Case +17.7% +10.1%
$24.00 $26.50
$28.25 $30.75
$32.50 $33.85
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Hedge Project PPA Project
Table 2 – Sample Wind Projects – Breakeven Build Costs Table 3 – Sample Wind Projects – Breakeven Off-Take Price
Other Potential Tax Reform Considerations
On its face, 100% expensing of capital expenditures in the first year should provide a benefit to renewable energy projects, given the incremental time value
benefit of the immediate full tax deduction versus depreciation deductions that are predominately claimed over five years. That benefit, however, is limited by
two factors:
– A tax rate decrease lowers the time value benefit of the acceleration of the deductions, as the deductions are inherently less valuable at lower tax rates
– In the current tax regime, accelerated depreciation creates an economic advantage for renewable energy projects over conventional power plants, which are
depreciated over a 15 to 20 year period. Under the Republican tax reform proposals, renewable energy projects would lose this advantage as all capital
expenditures would be expensed in the first year
The elimination of net interest expense deductions (i.e. interest expense in excess of interest income) would raise the after-tax cost of debt, and therefore
increase the cost of capital for renewable energy projects. However, the increase in the cost of debt would be mitigated by the following factors:
– The elimination of net interest expense deductions becomes less of an economic detriment at reduced tax rates
– In wind tax equity partnerships, the leverage component comprises a relatively small portion of the capital stack, so the impact on sponsor economics is
quite modest
Table 4 below illustrates the net impact of a tax rate decrease, 100% expensing of capital expenditures in the first year, and the loss of net interest expense
deductions:
– At a 25% tax rate, 100% expensing of capital expenditures in the first year more than makes up for the tax rate decrease on an unlevered basis in all projects
– At a 15% tax rate, 100% expensing of capital expenditures in the first year does not make up for the tax rate decrease, except for the Solar SREC Project
because of heavy, near-term taxable income generated by the high SREC prices
– The levered returns show a decrease at a 25% rate in the Wind PPA and Solar PPA Projects, due to the loss of the net interest expense deduction. At a 15%
tax rate, the levered returns decrease across the board
16
While a tax rate decrease is a cornerstone of both major tax reform proposals, 100% expensing of capital expenditures and
the elimination of net interest expense deductions would also have a significant impact on renewable energy projects
Impact on Project Returns Sample Wind Projects Sample Solar Projects
Wind PPA Wind Hedge Solar PPA Solar SREC
Other Potential Tax Reform Case Unlevered After-Tax
Levered After-Tax
Unlevered After-Tax
Levered After-Tax
Unlevered After-Tax
Levered After-Tax
Unlevered After-Tax
Levered After-Tax
35% Tax Rate, MACRS, Interest Deducted 8.0% 9.1% 12.0% 12.7% 7.0% 10.8% 7.0% 11.3%
25% Tax Rate, 100% Expensing, No Interest Deducted 8.1% 8.8% 12.5% 13.1% 7.5% 9.8% 7.9% 13.3%
15% Tax Rate, 100% Expensing, No Interest Deducted 7.2% 7.5% 11.7% 12.1% 7.0% 8.8% 7.5% 9.4%
Table 4 – Other Potential Tax Reforms – Impact on Sample Project Returns
Other Potential Tax Reform Considerations (Cont’d)
Impact on deficit restoration obligations (“DROs”) in tax equity partnerships
– Under U.S. tax rules, partners generally cannot receive allocations of tax losses in excess of their equity investment in the partnership (subject
to a number of adjustments and exceptions)
– One exception is if a partner agrees to contribute additional capital if the partnership liquidates at a time when the partner has a negative
capital account. Such an agreement, referred to as a DRO, allows the tax equity investor to receive allocations of tax losses in excess of their
equity investment and up to the amount of the DRO
– In the current market, tax equity investors in most wind and solar tax equity partnerships agree to DROs ranging from 10% to 40% of the tax
equity investor’s upfront investment
If the full cost of an asset is expensed in year one, the allocation of 99% of the resulting tax loss to the tax equity investor would be well in excess
of the tax equity investor’s upfront investment. In order to achieve the desired tax allocations (i.e. allocation of 99% of tax losses and credits to
the tax equity investor), the tax equity investor would have to agree to a much larger DRO
– Wind PPA Project: the required DRO would increase from 18% to 50% in the 25% tax rate case and from 28% to 65% in the 15% tax rate case
– Wind Hedge Project: the required DRO would increase from 15% to 51% in the 25% tax rate case and from 26% to 69% in the 15% tax rate case
– Solar PPA Project: the required DRO would increase from 20% to 161% in the 25% tax rate case and from 20% to 175% in the 15% tax rate case
– Solar SREC Project: the required DRO would increase from 20% to 96% in the 25% tax rate and from 20% to 104% in the 15% tax rate case
There is an open question as to how tax equity investors would view the higher level of contingent liability associated with higher DROs. Some
potential mitigants include the following:
– For wind projects, tax equity investors could “sacrifice” some level of year one PTCs by receiving less than 99% of year one taxable income
allocations (e.g. 70-80%), which would decrease the DRO requirement
– For solar projects, tax equity investors could use a sale leaseback structure which does not require a DRO. However, sale leaseback structures
are not available for PTC projects due to the “own and operate” requirements of Internal Revenue Code Section 45
17
Although 100% expensing of capital expenditures in the first year has a modest, positive impact on project
returns, it may raise significant partnership structuring issues with tax equity investors
Conclusions
If the tax rate decreases within the first three years of a project’s life, the Non-Tax Credit Tax Benefits component of renewable energy projects
becomes less valuable. The loss in value would be more pronounced in projects that rely more heavily on Non-Tax Credit Tax Benefits, such as
wind projects
In tax equity partnerships, absent any contractual mechanisms to the contrary, the tax equity investor bears the exposure to a tax rate decrease as
they receive the majority of tax depreciation benefits. Tax equity investors may insist on smaller upfront investments, larger shares of project
cash flow, or full indemnification from the sponsor for change in tax rate risk in response to an actual tax rate decrease or even the expectation of
a tax rate decrease
Wind projects would be much more adversely impacted by a tax rate decrease than solar projects. If tax equity investor economics are
maintained, wind sponsors would have to look to other sources such as reducing capital costs or increasing off-take prices in order to preserve
economics available under current market conditions:
– We estimate that wind project build costs would need to decrease by either ~4% or ~8% (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively) in
order to keep sponsor after-tax IRRs at the same levels as in the current 35% tax rate environment
– Alternatively, we estimate that wind PPA prices would need to increase by either ~6% or ~10% (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases,
respectively) in order to keep sponsor after-tax IRRs at the same levels as in the current 35% tax rate environment
Sponsors of solar projects would be impacted as well, but the benefit of having a lower tax rate once a project turns tax positive would generally
outweigh the loss in yield due to more expensive tax equity financing
While a decrease in the tax rate would have an impact on the aggregate U.S. corporate tax liability, we believe that the pressure to avoid
significant reductions in overall corporate taxes would result in a package of reforms that would not result in a material decrease in demand for
tax oriented investments. The final package could, however, shift tax burden amongst corporate investors
Structuring transactions and allocating tax reform risk between the tax equity investor and sponsor from now and until tax law actually changes
without knowing what a tax reform package would look like, when it would be implemented, and what type of transition rules would apply
presents a non-trivial challenge to the renewable energy market
Overall, we expect that the increase in sponsor investment requirements driven by the expectation of a tax rate decrease, as well as the potential
increase in indemnity requirements associated with prospective tax reform, would incentivize tax equity investors to place capital with larger,
better-capitalized sponsors which in turn should drive consolidation in the U.S. renewable energy sector
18
Appendix I
Tax Rate Sensitivity Analysis on the
Sample Projects
19
Sample Project Tax Rate Sensitivity
U.S. renewable energy projects typically have three sources of value:
Our analysis of the Sample Projects highlights that the level of impact of a tax rate decrease is a function of how much of the project return is
driven by Non-Tax Credit Tax Benefits, which we have defined as a project’s “Tax Rate Sensitivity”
In order to build a quantitative framework around the concept of Tax Rate Sensitivity, we calculated the present value of each source of value on
a per kW basis to generate the Tax Rate Sensitive Value. Note that we used a lower discount rate for the solar projects than for the wind projects
(7% versus 10%) due to the lower operating risk and commensurate lower market returns inherent in solar projects
We then calculated the portion of a project’s value, assuming a 35% tax rate, created by Non-Tax Credit Tax Benefits
– The Tax Rate Sensitive Values are equal to the present value of the Non-Tax Credit Tax Benefits, divided by the total value, which is expressed
as the sum of the present values of the three value buckets
The Wind PPA Project, Wind Hedge Project, Solar PPA Project, and Solar SREC Project each have different Tax Rate Sensitive Values as
illustrated in Table 5 below (detailed assumptions for each project can be found in Appendix II and Appendix III)
20
The impact of a tax rate decrease on project level returns is materially more pronounced for wind projects as opposed to
solar projects, and more for PPA projects as opposed to hedge projects in the current market environment
Table 5 – Sample Project Tax Rate Sensitive Values
35% Tax Rate Sample Wind Projects Sample Solar Projects
Contracted Revenue Arrangement PPA Hedge PPA SREC
Present Value @ 10% 10% 7% 7%
Cash Flow 664 986 975 983
Net Tax Benefit / (Liability) 204 90 18 5
Tax Credit 568 676 378 379
Total Present Value 1,435 1,752 1,370 1,367
Delta from Tax Rate Decrease More Less More Less
Tax Rate Sensitive Value (% of Present Value) 14.2% 5.1% 1.3% 0.4%
Source of Project Economics Impact to Value as a Result of a Tax Rate Decrease
Cash Distributions No Impact to Value
Non-Tax Credit Tax Benefits Value Decreases
Tax Credits No Impact to Value
Sample Project Tax Rate Sensitivity (Cont’d)
We summarized the net impact of a 2017 tax rate decrease to either 25% or 15% on each of the Sample Projects in Table 6 on the following page. We measured
the impact on the project, the tax equity investor, and the sponsor
– In all cases, the tax equity investor’s upfront investment was held constant relative to the base case
– The impact of a tax rate decrease to a tax efficient sponsor owning a project without third party tax equity is depicted in the “Unlevered Project Level”
column. The impact to tax equity investors and sponsors in typical tax equity partnership structures is depicted in the “Tax Equity” and “Sponsor Equity”
columns
One key metric to focus on is the change in the present value on a per kW basis and that change as a percentage of the total present value under the 35% tax
rate base case (“Delta from Tax Rate Decrease”)
– The Delta from Tax Rate Decrease is closely related to the Tax Rate Sensitive Value. Projects that rely more heavily on tax benefits see a more pronounced
change in value as a result of changes in tax rates (i.e. projects with a higher Tax Rate Sensitive Value have a larger pronounced Delta from Tax Rate
Decrease)
21
For all of the Sample Projects, a tax rate decrease would cause a decrease in the project value for a tax efficient sponsor owning 100% of a project. In tax equity partnerships, a tax rate decrease would cause a decrease in the tax equity investor’s value and an increase in the sponsor’s value
Wind Projects
The Delta from Tax Rate Decrease to the tax equity investor is about the same in both the Wind PPA Project and Wind Hedge Project (i.e. 7% and 15% under the 25% and 15% tax rate scenarios, respectively)
– However, the increase in the sponsor’s value is much higher in the Wind Hedge Project than in the Wind PPA Project due to the higher post-flip taxable income to the sponsor from the reset to market power prices after the hedge expires in year 12
The net impact on the wind projects would be an overall decrease in value, but the Wind Hedge Project would not decrease as severely as there is more of a benefit associated with a lower tax liability related to the sponsor’s taxable income
Solar Projects
The solar projects have lower Tax Rate Sensitive Values than wind, with the decrease in tax equity investor value either largely offset or more than offset by the increase in sponsor value. We expect solar projects to present less structuring challenges than wind due to the overall neutral or positive impact on value due to a tax rate decrease
Methodology
Wind projects generally have higher Tax Rate Sensitive Values than solar projects. Therefore, we expect to see
more pressure for wind projects on tax equity investment sizing, sponsor investment levels, and sponsor returns
Observations
Sample Project Tax Rate Sensitive Values
22
Table 6 – Impact of 2017 Tax Rate Decrease on Sample Project Tax Rate Sensitive Values
Sample Wind Projects
Wind PPA Project Unlevered Project Level Tax Equity Sponsor Equity
Figures in $/kW; Present Value @ 10.0% 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate
Cash Flow 664 664 664 212 212 212 452 452 452
Net Tax Benefit / (Liability) 204 145 87 261 186 112 (63) (45) (27)
PTC 568 568 568 546 546 546 18 18 18
Total 1,435 1,377 1,319 1,018 944 869 407 425 443
Delta from Tax Rate Decrease ($/kW | %) ($58) | (4%) ($116) | (8%) ($74) | (7%) ($149) |(15%) $18 | 4% $36 | 9%
Tax Rate Sensitive Value (% of PV) 14.2% 25.6% (15.5%)
Wind Hedge Project Unlevered Project Level Tax Equity Sponsor Equity
Figures in $/kW; Present Value @ 10.0% 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate
Cash Flow 986 986 986 114 114 114 872 872 872
Net Tax Benefit / (Liability) 90 64 38 271 193 116 (189) (135) (81)
PTC 676 676 676 647 647 647 25 25 25
Total 1,752 1,726 1,701 1,031 954 877 708 762 816
Delta from Tax Rate Decrease ($/kW | %) ($26) | (2%) ($15) | (3%) ($77) | (7%) ($155) |(15%) $54 | 8% $108 | 15%
Tax Rate Sensitive Value (% of PV) 5.1% 26.2% (26.7%)
Sample Solar Projects
Solar PPA Project Unlevered Project Level Tax Equity Sponsor Equity
Figures in $/kW; Present Value @ 7.0% 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate
Cash Flow 975 975 975 115 115 115 860 860 860
Net Tax Benefit / (Liability) 18 13 8 74 53 32 (118) (84) (50)
ITC 378 378 378 374 374 374 2 2 2
Total 1,370 1,365 1,360 562 541 520 744 777 811
Delta from Tax Rate Decrease ($/kW | %) ($5) | (0.4%) ($10) | (1%) ($21) | (4%) ($42) | (7%) $34 | 5% $67 | 9%
Tax Rate Sensitive Value (% of PV) 1.3% 13.1% (15.8%)
Solar SREC Project Unlevered Project Level Tax Equity Sponsor Equity
Figures in $/kW; Present Value @ 7.0% 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate
Cash Flow 983 983 983 245 245 245 737 737 737
Net Tax Benefit / (Liability) 5 4 2 62 44 27 (58) (41) (25)
ITC 379 379 379 375 375 375 3 3 3
Total 1,367 1,366 1,364 683 665 664 682 699 715
Delta from Tax Rate Decrease ($/kW | %) ($1) | (0.1%) ($3) | (0.2%) ($18)| (3%) ($36) | (5%) $16 | 2% $33 | 5%
Tax Rate Sensitive Value (% of PV) 0.4% 9.1% (8.4%)
Appendix II
Detailed Wind Project Analysis
23
Base Case Wind Project & Partnership Structuring Assumptions
24
Wind Project Overview Partnership Summary
In order to test the impact of a tax rate decrease on different types of wind projects, we chose two wind projects with varying cash flow and
taxable income profiles:
– The Wind PPA Project has a moderate NCF with 20-year PPA resulting in a project with a relatively lower yield and less cash flow
– The Wind Hedge Project has a high NCF and a 12-year hedge resulting in a project with a relatively higher yield and more cash flow
Project Inputs & Assumptions Off-Take Arrangement
PPA Hedge
Project Size 100 MW 100 MW
Net Capacity Factor (%) 42% 50%
Placed In-Service / COD 6/30/2017 6/30/2017
Capital Cost ($/kW) $1,500 / kW $1,500 / kW
Total Project Costs ($MM) * $156MM $155MM
Off-Take Rate ($/MWh) $30.75 $24.00
Escalation 1.0% --
Off-Take Term (Yrs) 20 12
2017 Production Tax Credit ($/MWh) $23.00 $23.00
Base Case Tax Rate 35% 35%
Unlevered Project Pre-Tax IRR 0.8% 6.0%
Unlevered Project After-Tax IRR 8.0% 12.0%
Partnership Structuring Assumptions Off-Take Arrangement
Yield Based Flip PPA Hedge
Tax Equity After-Tax Flip Yield 7.25% 8.25%
Target Flip Date (Yrs) 9.50 9.50
Tax Equity Pre-Flip Cash Allocations 45.0% 20.0%
Tax Equity Post-Flip Cash Allocations 5.0% 5.0%
Unlevered Sponsor Pre-Tax IRR 9.3% 15.7%
Unlevered Sponsor After-Tax IRR 7.9% 13.8%
Back Leverage Sizing Term (Yrs) 10 10
P50 Debt Service Coverage Ratio 1.45x 1.45x
Starting All-In Interest Rate 5.00% 5.00%
Levered Sponsor Pre-Tax IRR 10.3% 17.0%
Levered Sponsor After-Tax IRR 8.9% 15.0%
* Includes market placement and structuring fees
The economic profile of the Wind PPA Project is characterized by a mid-range net capacity factor, while the economic profile of the
Wind Hedge Project is characterized by a high net capacity factor
(7.8%) (6.0%)
0.2%
3.4%
(14.6%)
(11.2%)
0.3%
6.5%
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
–
5%
10%
15%
2017 2018 2019 2020
% C
han
ge
in I
RR
Re
lati
ve
to B
ase
Cas
e
25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
7.4% 7.5% 8.0% 8.3%
6.8% 7.1% 8.0% 8.5%
–
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
2017 2018 2019 2020
Un
lev
ered
Aft
er-T
ax I
RR
25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Wind Project Return Comparison Relative Impact of a Tax Rate Decrease on Project Returns Depends on Tax Rate Sensitive Value
25
Wind Hedge Project
The Wind PPA Project and Wind Hedge Project would be negatively impacted by a tax rate decrease in the first two years of the project life, when depreciation deductions are highest. The Wind PPA Project would be more negatively impacted given that it has
a higher Tax Rate Sensitive Value. Both projects benefit relative to the base case as a result of a tax rate decrease in 2019 or 2020
% Change Relative to Base Case IRR % Change Relative to Base Case IRR
Wind PPA Project
(3.5%) (2.4%)
1.3% 3.2%
(6.5%) (4.4%)
2.5%
6.9%
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
–
5%
10%
15%
2017 2018 2019 2020
% C
han
ge
in I
RR
Re
lati
ve
to B
ase
Cas
e
25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
11.6% 11.7% 12.1% 12.4% 11.2% 11.5%
12.3% 12.7%
–
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
2017 2018 2019 2020
Un
lev
ered
Aft
er-T
ax I
RR
25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Base Case 8.0% Project ULAT IRR Base Case 12.0% Project ULAT IRR
Wind PPA Project Pro Forma & Tax Rate Sensitive Value
26
Wind PPA Project Pro Forma
Unlevered Calendar Year
Figures in $/kW Total 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042
Cash Flow 1,724 38 69 70 70 71 71 72 72 73 73 71 60 62 64 65 65 66 67 68 69 69 70 70 70 70 37
Taxable Income 170 (128) (437) (237) (117) (94) (48) 62 62 63 63 61 51 52 54 55 58 64 65 66 66 68 71 71 71 71 38
PTC 896 41 81 85 85 88 88 92 92 95 99 49 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Sponsor Equity Calendar Year
Figures in $/kW Total 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042
Cash Flow 1,365 21 38 38 39 39 39 39 40 40 40 67 57 58 61 62 62 63 63 64 65 66 67 67 67 67 35
Taxable Income * 904 – – – – – – – – – – 44 47 48 50 51 54 60 61 61 62 63 67 67 67 67 35
PTC * 52 – – – – – – – – – – 16 16 17 3 – – – – – – – – – – – –
* Represents realized taxable income or PTC utilization after self-sheltering tax losses
Tax Equity Calendar Year
Figures in $/kW Total 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042
Cash Flow 358 17 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 33 33 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 2
Taxable Income (722) (128) (433) (236) (117) (94) (16) 60 61 61 62 8 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 2
PTC 844 40 80 84 84 87 87 91 91 94 98 6 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Tax Rate Sensitive Values
Present Value @ 10.0% Unlevered Project Level Tax Equity Sponsor Equity
Figures in $/kW 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate
Cash Flow 664 664 664 212 212 212 452 452 452
Net Tax Benefit / (Liability) 204 145 87 261 186 112 (63) (45) (27)
PTC 568 568 568 546 546 546 18 18 18
Total 1,435 1,377 1,319 1,018 944 869 407 425 443
Delta from Tax Rate Decrease ($/kW | %) ($58) | (4%) ($116) | (8%) ($74) | (7%) ($149) |(15%) $18 | 4% $36 | 9%
Tax Rate Sensitive Value (% of PV) 14.2% 25.6% (15.5%)
The tables above summarize the pro forma and Tax Rate Sensitive Value for the Wind PPA Project, including each member’s share
of cash flow, taxable income, and tax credits
Wind Hedge Project Pro Forma & Tax Rate Sensitive Value
27
Wind Hedge Project Pro Forma
Unlevered Calendar Year
Figures in $/kW Total 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042
Cash Flow 3,677 35 68 68 68 69 69 69 70 70 70 68 57 116 182 189 194 200 207 215 223 231 239 246 254 262 138
Taxable Income 2,093 (131) (435) (237) (118) (95) (49) 61 61 62 62 57 46 105 170 177 185 196 204 211 219 227 237 244 252 260 123
PTC 1,066 48 97 101 101 105 105 109 109 114 118 59 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Sponsor Equity Calendar Year
Figures in $/kW Total 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042
Cash Flow 3,394 28 54 54 55 55 55 55 56 56 56 64 54 110 173 179 185 190 197 204 212 219 227 234 241 249 131
Taxable Income * 2,904 – – – – – – – – – 19 64 54 110 173 179 185 196 204 211 219 221 227 233 240 247 123
PTC * 69 – – – – – – – – – 7 20 19 23 – – – – – – – – – – – – –
* Represents realized taxable income or PTC utilization after self-sheltering tax losses
Tax Equity Calendar Year
Figures in $/kW Total 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042
Cash Flow 282 7 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 3 3 6 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 7
Taxable Income (763) (130) (432) (236) (118) (95) (36) 59 60 60 60 (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) 5 9 11 13 13 6
PTC 997 48 96 100 100 104 104 108 108 112 117 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Tax Rate Sensitive Values
Present Value @ 10.0% Unlevered Project Level Tax Equity Sponsor Equity
Figures in $/kW 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate
Cash Flow 986 986 986 114 114 114 872 872 872
Net Tax Benefit / (Liability) 90 64 38 271 193 116 (189) (135) (81)
PTC 676 676 676 647 647 647 25 25 25
Total 1,752 1,726 1,701 1,031 954 877 708 762 816
Delta from Tax Rate Decrease ($/kW | %) ($26) | (2%) ($15) | (3%) ($77) | (7%) ($155( |(15%) $54 | 8% $108 | 15%
Tax Rate Sensitive Value (% of PV) 5.1% 26.2% (26.7%)
The tables above summarize the pro forma and Tax Rate Sensitive Value for the Wind Hedge Project, including each member’s
share of cash flow, taxable income, and tax credits
Impact on Tax Equity Partnership Flip Dates & Returns
The decrease in tax equity value from a tax rate decrease manifests in a partnership flip structure as either a decrease in yield or a
deferral of the flip date
In Tables 7 and 8 below, we summarize the impact on the flip date for the Wind PPA Project and Wind Hedge Project if the tax rate is
reduced to either 25% or 15%, assuming that the tax equity investment is sized at a 35% rate
As expected, the Wind PPA Project is more adversely impacted than the Wind Hedge Project given the higher Tax Rate Sensitive Value
– The Wind PPA Project flip date moves out as far as 24 years (15% tax rate in 2017 case)
– The Wind Hedge Project flip date moves out as far as 17 years (15% tax rate in 2017 case)
28
A tax rate decrease has a significant negative impact on tax equity flip periods for investments sized at a 35% tax
rate, pushing flips dates out to as far as 24 years
Flip Date Sensitivity Project
Economics Tax Equity Structuring & Economics Unlevered Sponsor Economics Back Levered Sponsor Economics
Tax Rate Case Unlevered
After-Tax IRR Upfront
Investment Flip
Period After-Tax Flip Yield
Pre-Flip Cash Share
Class B Gross Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Class B Back Leverage
Class B Net Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Base Case (35%) 8.0% 69% 9.50 7.25% 45% 31% 9.3% 7.9% 14% 17% 10.3% 8.9%
Year 2017 (25% | 15%) 7.4% | 6.8% 69% 15.25 | 24.00 7.25% 45% 31% 7.9% | 6.2% 7.1% | 5.9% ~14% ~17% 8.5% | 6.4% 7.6% | 6.1%
Year 2018 (25% | 15%) 7.5% | 7.1% 69% 14.00 | 20.25 7.25% 45% 31% 8.2% | 6.9% 7.3% | 6.6% ~14% ~17% 8.9% | 7.3% 7.9% | 7.0%
Year 2019 (25% | 15%) 8.0% | 8.0% 69% 10.50 | 12.00 7.25% 45% 31% 9.0% | 8.7% 8.1% | 8.2% ~14% ~17% 9.9% | 9.4% 8.9% | 8.9%
Year 2020 (25% | 15%) 8.3% | 8.5% 69% 9.75 | 10.00 7.25% 45% 31% 9.3% | 9.2% 8.5% | 8.8% ~14% ~17% 10.3% | 10.1% 9.5% | 9.8%
Flip Date Sensitivity Project
Economics Tax Equity Structuring & Economics Unlevered Sponsor Economics Back Levered Sponsor Economics
Tax Rate Case Unlevered
After-Tax IRR Upfront
Investment Flip
Period After-Tax Flip Yield
Pre-Flip Cash Share
Class B Gross Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Class B Back Leverage
Class B Net Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Base Case (35%) 12.0% 67% 9.50 8.25% 20% 33% 15.7% 13.8% 9% 23% 17.0% 15.0%
Year 2017 (25% | 15%) 11.6% | 11.2% 67% 14.00 | 17.00 8.25% 50% 33% 14.8% | 14.0% 13.6% | 13.5% ~9% ~23% 15.9% | 15.0% 14.7% | 14.5%
Year 2018 (25% | 15%) 11.7% | 11.5% 67% 13.50 | 15.75 8.25% 50% 33% 14.9% | 14.3% 13.7% | 13.8% ~9% ~23% 16.0% | 15.4% 14.9% | 14.8%
Year 2019 (25% | 15%) 12.1% | 12.3% 67% 11.75 | 13.00 8.25% 50% 33% 15.4% | 15.1% 14.2% | 14.5% ~9% ~23% 16.6% | 16.2% 15.3% | 15.6%
Year 2020 (25% | 15%) 12.4% | 12.7% 67% 10.00 | 10.25 8.25% 50% 33% 15.6% | 15.8% 14.4% | 15.2% ~9% ~23% 16.9% | 17.2% 15.6% | 16.5%
Table 7 – Wind PPA Project – Impact to Flip Date as a Result of a Tax Rate Decrease
Table 8 – Wind Hedge Project – Impact to Flip Date as a Result of a Tax Rate Decrease
Wind PPA Project Impact on Tax Equity Upfront Investment & Share of Pre-Flip Cash
Given that tax equity investors are unlikely to accept significant deferrals in their flip dates, what is the decrease in upfront investment or increase in share
of pre-flip cash distributions required to maintain the original 9.5 year flip date?
For the Wind PPA Project, holding the tax equity investor’s upfront investment constant, the tax equity investor’s share of pre-flip cash distributions would
need to increase from 45% to either 65% or 80% (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively) in order to maintain the 9.5 year flip date (see Table 9 below)
– The sponsor’s unlevered after-tax IRR decreases from 7.9% to either 6.3% or 5.5% (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively)
Alternatively, holding the tax equity investor’s share of pre-flip cash distributions constant, the tax equity investor’s upfront investment would need to
decrease from 69% to either 64% or 59% (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively) in order to maintain the 9.5 year flip date (see Table 10 below)
– The sponsor’s unlevered after-tax IRR decreases from 7.9% to either 6.4% or 5.7% (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively)
In order to keep returns constant in light of a tax rate decrease, tax equity investors in projects similar to the Wind PPA
Project would have to make the most significant adjustments to their terms of any of the Sample Projects
29
Pre-Flip Cash Sensitivity
Project Economics
Tax Equity Structuring & Economics Unlevered Sponsor Economics Back Levered Sponsor Economics
Tax Rate Case Unlevered
After-Tax IRR Upfront
Investment Flip
Period After-Tax Flip Yield
Pre-Flip Cash Share
Class B Gross Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Class B Back Leverage
Class B Net Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Base Case (35%) 8.0% 69% 9.50 7.25% 45% 31% 9.3% 7.9% 14% 17% 10.3% 8.9%
Year 2017 (25% | 15%) 7.4% | 6.8% 69% 9.50 7.25% 65% | 80% 31% 7.3% | 6.0% 6.3% | 5.5% 9% | 6% 21% | 25% 7.5% | 6.0% 6.5% | 5.5%
Year 2018 (25% | 15%) 7.5% | 7.1% 69% 9.50 7.25% 61% | 74% 31% 7.6% | 6.5% 6.6% | 6.0% 10% | 7% 20% | 23% 7.9% | 6.6% 6.9% | 6.0%
Year 2019 (25% | 15%) 8.0% | 8.0% 69% 9.50 7.25% 51% | 55% 31% 8.7% | 8.2% 7.6% | 7.6% 13% | 12% 18% | 19% 9.3% | 8.7% 8.3% | 8.1%
Year 2020 (25% | 15%) 8.3% | 8.5% 69% 9.50 7.25% 45% | 46% 31% 9.2% | 9.2% 8.4% | 8.9% 14% | 14% 17% | 17% 10.2% | 10.2% 9.4% | 9.8%
Upfront Investment Sensitivity
Project Economics
Tax Equity Structuring & Economics Unlevered Sponsor Economics Back Levered Sponsor Economics
Tax Rate Case Unlevered
After-Tax IRR Upfront
Investment Flip
Period After-Tax Flip Yield
Pre-Flip Cash Share
Class B Gross Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Class B Back Leverage
Class B Net Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Base Case (35%) 8.0% 69% 9.50 7.25% 45% 31% 9.3% 7.9% 14% 17% 10.3% 8.9%
Year 2017 (25% | 15%) 7.4% | 6.8% 64% | 59% 9.50 7.25% 45% 36% | 41% 7.4% | 6.2% 6.4% | 5.7% 14% 22% | 27% 7.8% | 6.3% 6.7% | 5.8%
Year 2018 (25% | 15%) 7.5% | 7.1% 65% | 61% 9.50 7.25% 45% 35% | 39% 7.7% | 6.6% 6.6% | 6.1% 14% 21% | 25% 8.2% | 6.8% 7.1% | 6.3%
Year 2019 (25% | 15%) 8.0% | 8.0% 68% | 66% 9.50 7.25% 45% 32% | 34% 8.7% | 8.2% 7.8% | 7.8% 14% 18% | 20% 9.5% | 8.8% 8.5% | 8.4%
Year 2020 (25% | 15%) 8.3% | 8.5% 69% | 69% 9.50 7.25% 45% 31% | 31% 9.2% | 9.2% 8.4% | 8.9% 14% 17% | 17% 10.2% | 10.2% 9.4% | 9.9%
Table 9 – Wind PPA Project – Increase to Tax Equity Investor Pre-Flip Cash Distributions
Table 10 – Wind PPA Project – Decrease in Tax Equity Upfront Investment
Wind PPA Project Impact of a 2017 Tax Rate Decrease on Sponsor Economics
30
Unlevered Sponsor Yield Unlevered Sponsor Yield Unlevered Sponsor Yield
In order to keep the tax equity flip IRR and flip date constant relative to the base case, the tax equity upfront investment would need to decrease by ~5% to ~10% of total cost (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively). Alternatively, if the tax equity partnership structuring parameters were held constant, the
flip date would move out from 9.50 years to either 15.25 years or 24.00 years (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively)
Levered Sponsor Yield Levered Sponsor Yield Levered Sponsor Yield
Flip Date Sensitivity (1) Upfront Investment Sensitivity (3) Pre-Flip Cash Sensitivity (2)
9.3%
7.9%
6.2%
7.9% 7.1%
5.9%
9.50
15.25
24.00
–
5
10
15
20
25
–
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Fli
p P
erio
d (
Yrs
)
Un
lev
ered
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax Flip Date
9.3%
7.3% 6.0%
7.9%
6.3% 5.5% 45%
65%
80%
–
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
–
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Tax
Eq
uit
y S
har
e o
f P
re-F
lip
Cas
h (
%)
Un
lev
ered
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax TE Pre-Flip Cash
9.3%
7.4% 6.2%
7.9%
6.4% 5.7%
31% 36%
41%
–
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
–
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Up
fro
nt
Sp
on
sor
Eq
uit
y (
%)
Un
lev
ered
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax Upfront Sponsor Equity
10.3%
8.5%
6.4%
8.9% 7.6%
6.1%
9.50
15.25
24.00
–
5
10
15
20
25
–
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Fli
p P
eri
od
(Y
rs)
Le
ve
red
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax Flip Date
10.3%
7.5%
6.0%
8.9%
6.5% 5.5% 45%
65%
80%
–
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
–
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Tax
Eq
uit
y S
har
e o
f P
re-F
lip
Cas
h (
%)
Lev
ered
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax TE Pre-Flip Cash
10.3%
7.8%
6.3%
8.9%
6.7% 5.8%
17% 22%
27%
–
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
–
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Up
fro
nt
Sp
on
sor
Eq
uit
y (
%)
Le
ve
red
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax Upfront Sponsor Equity
(1) Tax equity receives 45% of cash distributions (2) Initial flip period of 9.50 years (3) Tax equity receives 45% of per-flip cash distributions for an initial period of 9.50 years
Wind Hedge Project Impact on Tax Equity Upfront Investment & Share of Pre-Flip Cash Given that tax equity investors are unlikely to accept significant deferrals in their flip dates, what is the decrease in upfront investment or increase in share
of pre-flip cash distributions required to maintain the original 9.5 year flip date?
For the Wind Hedge Project, holding the tax equity investor’s upfront investment constant, the tax equity investor’s share of pre-flip cash distributions would
need to increase from 20% to either 38% or 57% (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively) in order to maintain the 9.5 year flip date (see Table 11 below)
– The sponsor’s unlevered after-tax IRR decreases from 13.8% to either 13.0% or 12.1% (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively)
Alternatively, holding the tax equity investor’s share of pre-flip cash distributions constant, the tax equity investor’s upfront investment would need to
decrease from 67% to either 62% or 57% (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively), in order to maintain the 9.5 year flip date (see Table 12 below)
– The sponsor’s unlevered after-tax IRR decreases from 13.8% to either 12.8% or 11.8% in (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively)
In all cases, the impact is reduced as the tax rate decrease moves out from 2017
Tax equity investors in wind projects would seek to maintain their flip dates and return targets, either through a lower upfront investment or a direct indemnity from the sponsor. In addition, tax equity investors might not be comfortable with the levels of
pre-flip cash distributions required to maintain the flip date
31
Pre-Flip Cash Sensitivity
Project Economics
Tax Equity Structuring & Economics Unlevered Sponsor Economics Back Levered Sponsor Economics
Tax Rate Case Unlevered
After-Tax IRR Upfront
Investment Flip
Period After-Tax Flip Yield
Pre-Flip Cash Share
Class B Gross Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Class B Back Leverage
Class B Net Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Base Case (35%) 12.0% 67% 9.50 8.25% 20% 33% 15.7% 13.8% 9% 23% 17.0% 15.0%
Year 2017 (25% | 15%) 11.6% | 11.2% 67% 9.50 8.25% 38% | 57% 33% 14.2% | 12.9% 13.0% | 12.1% 7% | 5% 25% | 27% 15.0% | 13.2% 13.7% | 12.4%
Year 2018 (25% | 15%) 11.7% | 11.5% 67% 9.50 8.25% 35% | 51% 33% 14.5% | 13.3% 13.3% | 12.5% 8% | 6% 25% | 27% 15.3% | 13.8% 14.1% | 12.9%
Year 2019 (25% | 15%) 12.1% | 12.3% 67% 9.50 8.25% 26% | 31% 33% 15.2% | 14.8% 14.0% | 14.2% 9% | 8% 24% | 24% 16.3% | 15.7% 15.0% | 15.1%
Year 2020 (25% | 15%) 12.4% | 12.7% 67% 9.50 8.25% 21% | 22% 33% 15.6% | 15.5% 14.4% | 14.9% 9% | 9% 23% | 23% 16.9% | 16.7% 15.6% | 16.1%
Upfront Investment Sensitivity
Project Economics
Tax Equity Structuring & Economics Unlevered Sponsor Economics Back Levered Sponsor Economics
Tax Rate Case Unlevered
After-Tax IRR Upfront
Investment Flip
Period After-Tax Flip Yield
Pre-Flip Cash Share
Class B Gross Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Class B Back Leverage
Class B Net Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Base Case (35%) 12.0% 67% 9.50 8.25% 20% 33% 15.7% 13.8% 9% 23% 17.0% 15.0%
Year 2017 (25% | 15%) 11.6% | 11.2% 62% | 57% 9.50 8.25% 20% 38% | 43% 13.9% | 12.5% 12.8% | 11.8% 9% 28% | 34% 14.8% | 13.1% 13.6% | 12.4%
Year 2018 (25% | 15%) 11.7% | 11.5% 63% | 59% 9.50 8.25% 20% 37% | 41% 14.2% | 13.0% 13.0% | 12.4% 9% 27% | 32% 15.1% | 13.7% 13.9% | 13.0%
Year 2019 (25% | 15%) 12.2% | 12.3% 66% | 64% 9.50 8.25% 20% 34% | 36% 15.1% | 14.5% 13.9% | 14.0% 9% 25% | 26% 16.2% | 15.6% 15.0% | 15.0%
Year 2020 (25% | 15%) 12.4% | 12.7% 67% | 67% 9.50 8.25% 20% 33% | 33% 15.6% | 15.4% 14.4% | 14.9% 9% 23% | 24% 16.8% | 16.7% 15.6% | 16.1%
Table 11 – Wind Hedge Project – Increase to Tax Equity Investor Pre-Flip Cash Distributions
Table 12 – Wind Hedge Project – Decrease in Tax Equity Upfront Investment
Wind Hedge Project Impact of a 2017 Tax Rate Decrease on Sponsor Economics
32
Unlevered Sponsor Yield Unlevered Sponsor Yield Unlevered Sponsor Yield
In order to keep the tax equity flip IRR and flip date constant relative to the base case, the tax equity upfront investment needs to decrease by ~5% or ~10% of total cost (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively). Alternatively, if the tax equity partnership structuring parameters were held constant, the flip date
would move out from 9.50 years to either 14.00 years or 17.00 years (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively)
Levered Sponsor Yield Levered Sponsor Yield Levered Sponsor Yield
Flip Date Sensitivity (1) Upfront Investment Sensitivity (3) Pre-Flip Cash Sensitivity (2)
15.7% 14.8%
14.0% 13.8% 13.6% 13.5%
9.50
14.00
17.00
–
5
10
15
20
25
–
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Fli
p P
erio
d (
Yrs
)
Un
lev
ered
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax Flip Date
15.7%
14.2% 12.9%
13.8% 13.0%
12.1%
20%
38%
57%
–
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
–
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Tax
Eq
uit
y S
har
e o
f P
re-F
lip
Cas
h (
%)
Un
lev
ered
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax TE Pre-Flip Cash
15.7%
13.9%
12.5% 13.8%
12.8% 11.8%
33% 38%
43%
–
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
–
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Up
fro
nt
Sp
on
sor
Eq
uit
y (
%)
Un
lev
ered
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax Upfront Sponsor Equity
17.0% 15.9%
15.0% 15.0% 14.7% 14.5%
9.50
14.00
17.00
–
5
10
15
20
25
–
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Fli
p P
eri
od
(Y
rs)
Le
ve
red
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax Flip Date
17.0%
15.0%
13.2%
15.0% 13.7%
12.4%
20%
38%
57%
–
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
–
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Tax
Eq
uit
y S
har
e o
f P
re-F
lip
Cas
h (
%)
Lev
ered
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax TE Pre-Flip Cash
17.0%
14.8%
13.1%
15.0%
13.6% 12.4%
23% 28%
34%
–
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
–
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Up
fro
nt
Sp
on
sor
Eq
uit
y (
%)
Le
ve
red
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax Upfront Sponsor Equity
(1) Tax equity receives 20% of cash distributions (2) Initial flip period of 9.50 years (3) Tax equity receives 20% of pre-flip cash distributions for a initial period of 9.50 years
Other Potential Tax Reform Considerations Impact of 100% Expensing & Loss of Net Interest Expense Deductions on Wind Projects
Both major Republican tax reform proposals call for replacement of the current tax depreciation system with a full expensing of capital
expenditures in the year incurred and elimination of net interest expense deductions
At face value, the acceleration of cost recovery deductions should provide a time value of money benefit. However, it may also create structuring
issues in tax equity partnerships
The elimination of net interest expense deductions would raise the after-tax cost of debt, and thereby increase the cost of capital for renewable
energy projects
The table below summarizes the impact both 100% expensing of capital expenditures in the first year and the disallowance of net interest
expense deductions would have on the wind Sample Projects
If capital expenditures become fully deductible in the first year and net interest expense becomes non-deductible, project level economics would be moderately improved if tax rates also decrease to either 25% or 15%. However, tax equity investors would have
to take on much larger DROs in order to prevent reallocations of tax credits to the sponsor due to capital account limitations
33
Wind PPA Project Project
Economics Tax Equity Economics Sponsor Economics
Unlevered After-Tax IRR
Flip Period
After-Tax Flip Yield
Pre-Flip Cash Share
DRO Class B
Gross Equity Back
Leverage Net Equity
Unlevered Pre-Tax
IRR
Unlevered After-Tax
IRR
Levered Pre-Tax
IRR Levered
After-Tax IRR
2017 25% Tax Rate 8.1% 9.50 7.3% 45% 50% 35.0% 14.0% 21.0% 7.9% 5.9% 8.4% 7.2%
Delta from MACRS Case 0.7% 32% (1.5%) 0.0% (1.5%) 0.4% (0.5%) 0.6% 0.4%
2017- 15% Tax Rate 7.2% 9.50 7.3% 45% 65% 41.0% 14.0% 27.0% 6.4% 5.9% 6.5% 5.9%
Delta from MACRS Case 0.3% 37% (0.7%) 0.0% (0.7%) 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Wind Hedge Project Project
Economics Tax Equity Economics Sponsor Economics
Unlevered After-Tax IRR
Flip Period
After-Tax Flip Yield
Pre-Flip Cash Share
DRO Class B
Gross Equity Back
Leverage Net Equity
Unlevered Pre-Tax
IRR
Unlevered After-Tax
IRR
Levered Pre-Tax
IRR Levered
After-Tax IRR
2017 25% Tax Rate 12.5% 9.50 8.3% 20% 51% 35.8% 9.5% 26.3% 14.6% 13.3% 15.6% 14.2%
Delta from MACRS Case 0.9% 36% (2.0%) 0.0% (2.0%) 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.6%
2017- 15% Tax Rate 11.7% 9.50 8.3% 20% 69% 42.3% 9.5% 32.8% 12.7% 12.0% 13.4% 12.6%
Delta from MACRS Case 0.5% 43% (0.7%) 0.0% (0.7%) 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Table 13 – Other Potential Tax Reforms – Impact on Wind PPA Project
Table 14 – Other Potential Tax Reforms – Impact on Wind Hedge Project
Appendix III
Detailed Solar Project Analysis
34
Base Case Solar Project & Partnership Structuring Assumptions
In order to test the impact of a tax rate decrease on different types of solar projects, we chose two solar projects with varying cash
flow and taxable income profiles:
– The Solar PPA Project has a long-term PPA with a relatively more linear cash flow stream
– The Solar SREC Project has a long-term off-take agreement and a 5-year strip of contracted SREC revenues. The project has the same yield but
more cash flow in the earlier operating years
35
* Includes market placement and structuring fees
Project Inputs & Assumptions Off-Take Arrangement
PPA SREC
Project Size 50 MW 50 MW
Production Factor (MWh/MW) 1,600 1,600
Placed In-Service / COD 6/30/2017 6/30/2017
Capital Cost ($/W) $1.30/W $1.30/W
Total Project Costs ($MM) * $67MM $68MM
Off-Take Rate ($/MWh) $55.00 $25.60
Escalation 1.0% 1.0%
Off-Take Term (Yrs) 20 20
SREC Rate & Term n/a $100 / 5-Yr
Base Case Tax Rate 35% 35%
Unlevered Project Pre-Tax IRR 4.2% 1.7%
Unlevered Project After-Tax IRR 7.0% 7.0%
Partnership Structuring Assumptions Off-Take Arrangement
PPA SREC
Tax Equity After-Tax Flip Yield 7.50% 7.50%
Target Flip Date (Yrs) 5.50 5.50
Tax Equity Pre-Flip Cash Allocations 25.0% 30.0%
Tax Equity Post-Flip Cash Allocations 5.0% 5.0%
Unlevered Sponsor Pre-Tax IRR 7.4% 8.0%
Unlevered Sponsor After-Tax IRR 6.0% 6.4%
Back Leverage Sizing Term (Yrs) 15 15
P50 Debt Service Coverage Ratio 1.35x 1.35x
Starting All-In Interest Rate 4.25% 4.25%
Levered Sponsor Pre-Tax IRR 8.5% 10.2%
Levered Sponsor After-Tax IRR 7.0% 8.8%
Solar Project Overview Partnership Summary
The economic profile of the Solar PPA Project is characterized by a consistent revenue stream, whereas the economic profile of the
Solar SREC Project is frontloaded as a result of SREC revenues
(0.1%)
2.8%
7.5% 9.5%
(0.5%)
5.1%
13.8%
18.1%
(10%)
(5%)
–
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2017 2018 2019 2020
% C
han
ge
in I
RR
Re
lati
ve
to B
ase
Cas
e
25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
7.0% 7.2%
7.5% 7.7%
7.0%
7.4%
8.0% 8.3%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2017 2018 2019 2020
Un
lev
ered
Aft
er-T
ax I
RR
25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Solar Project Return Comparison Relative Impact of a Tax Rate Decrease on Project Returns Depends on Tax Rate Sensitive Value
36
Solar SREC Project
Solar projects would generally not be negatively impacted by a tax rate decrease. In contract to Wind Projects, given the timing of the ITC versus the 10 year PTC, the returns for solar projects with lower tax sensitivity (e.g. Solar SREC Project) increase more
relative to projects with less tax intensity
% Change Relative to Base Case IRR % Change Relative to Base Case IRR
Solar PPA Project
(0.4%)
3.9%
9.2% 10.2%
(0.8%)
7.3%
17.8% 19.6%
(10%)
(5%)
–
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2017 2018 2019 2020
% C
han
ge
in I
RR
Re
lati
ve
to B
ase
Cas
e
25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
7.0% 7.3%
7.7% 7.7%
7.0%
7.5%
8.3% 8.4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2017 2018 2019 2020
Un
lev
ered
Aft
er-T
ax I
RR
25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Base Case 7.0% Project ULAT IRR Base Case 7.0% Project ULAT IRR
Solar PPA Project Pro Forma & Tax Rate Sensitive Value
37
Solar PPA Project Pro Forma
Unlevered Calendar Year
Figures in $/kW Total 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2042 2047 2052
Cash Flow 2,563 36 72 72 72 72 72 72 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 74 74 74 369 370 332
Taxable Income 1,333 (92) (313) (161) (71) (55) (21) 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 65 68 68 70 71 72 367 368 329
ITC 378 378 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Sponsor Equity Calendar Year
Figures in $/kW Total 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2042 2047 2052
Cash Flow 2,356 27 54 54 54 54 54 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 351 351 316
Taxable Income * 1,541 – – – – – – – – – – – – 16 60 60 62 65 65 66 67 68 349 349 314
ITC * 4 – – – – – – – – – – – – 4 – – – – – – – – – – –
The tables above summarize the pro forma and Tax Rate Sensitive Value for the Solar PPA Project, including
each member’s share of cash flow, taxable income, and tax credits
* Represents realized taxable income or ITC utilization after self-sheltering tax losses
Tax Equity Calendar Year
Figures in $/kW Total 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2042 2047 2052
Cash Flow 207 9 18 18 18 18 18 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 18 18 17
Taxable Income (133) (91) (224) 18 18 18 18 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 18 18 17
ITC 374 374 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Tax Rate Sensitive Values
Present Value @ 7.0% Unlevered Project Level Tax Equity Sponsor Equity
Figures in $/kW 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate
Cash Flow 975 975 975 115 115 115 860 860 860
Net Tax Benefit / (Liability) 18 13 8 74 53 32 (118) (84) (50)
ITC 378 378 378 374 374 374 2 2 2
Total 1,370 1,365 1,360 562 541 520 744 777 811
Delta from Tax Rate Decrease ($/kW | %) ($5) | (0.4%) ($10) | (1%) ($21) | (4%) ($42) | (7%) $34 | 5% $67 | 9%
Tax Rate Sensitive Value (% of PV) 1.3% 13.1% (15.8%)
Solar SREC Project Pro Forma & Tax Rate Sensitive Value
38
Solar SREC Project Pro Forma
Unlevered Calendar Year
Figures in $/kW Total 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2042 2047 2052
Cash Flow 1,563 92 184 183 182 181 103 24 24 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 22 22 22 22 106 100 84
Taxable Income 395 (36) (202) (51) 40 56 12 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 18 18 20 22 22 22 22 21 104 98 80
ITC 379 379 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Sponsor Equity Calendar Year
Figures in $/kW Total 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2042 2047 2052
Cash Flow 1,253 65 129 128 128 127 72 23 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 21 21 21 21 101 95 80
Taxable Income * 560 – – – – – – 16 18 18 18 17 17 17 17 18 22 22 21 21 21 21 101 95 80
ITC * 4 – – – – – – 4 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
The tables above summarize the pro forma and Tax Rate Sensitive Value for the Solar SREC Project, including
each member’s share of cash flow, taxable income, and tax credits
* Represents realized taxable income or ITC utilization after self-sheltering tax losses
Tax Equity Calendar Year
Figures in $/kW Total 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2042 2047 2052
Cash Flow 310 28 55 55 55 54 31 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 5 4
Taxable Income (162) (35) (200) (50) 39 55 12 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 – – 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 2
ITC 375 375 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Tax Rate Sensitive Values
Present Value @ 7.0% Unlevered Project Level Tax Equity Sponsor Equity
Figures in $/kW 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate 35%
Tax Rate 25%
Tax Rate 15%
Tax Rate
Cash Flow 983 983 983 245 245 245 737 737 737
Net Tax Benefit / (Liability) 5 4 2 62 44 27 (58) (41) (25)
ITC 379 379 379 375 375 375 3 3 3
Total 1,367 1,366 1,364 683 665 664 682 699 715
Delta from Tax Rate Decrease ($/kW | %) ($1) | (0.1%) ($3) | (0.2%) ($18)| (3%) ($36) | (5%) $16 | 2% $33 | 5%
Tax Rate Sensitive Value (% of PV) 0.4% 9.1% (8.4%)
Impact on Tax Equity Partnership Flip Dates & Returns
As with the wind projects, the decrease in tax equity value from a tax rate decrease manifests in a partnership flip structure as either a decrease
in yield or a deferral of the flip date. Note that we assumed a 50% cash sweep to the tax equity investor from the target flip date until the flip
yield is attained
In Tables 15 and 16 below, we summarize the impact on the flip date for the Solar PPA Project and Solar SREC Project if the tax rate is reduced to
either 25% or 15%, assuming that the tax equity investment is sized at a 35% rate
– The Solar PPA Project flip date moves out as far as 8 years (15% tax rate in 2017 case)
– The Solar SREC Project flip date moves out as far as 12 years (15% tax rate in 2017 case) *
Although the flip date moves out, the impact on the sponsor’s yield is much less extreme than in the sample wind projects
Similar to wind projects, if a tax equity investment is sized assuming a 35% tax rate, a tax rate decrease would
push out the flip date from the 5.50 year target out to as far as 12.00 years
39
Flip Date Sensitivity Project
Economics Tax Equity Structuring & Economics Unlevered Sponsor Economics Back Levered Sponsor Economics
Tax Rate Case Unlevered
After-Tax IRR Upfront
Investment Flip
Period After-Tax Flip Yield
Pre-Flip Cash Share
Class B Gross Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Class B Back Leverage
Class B Net Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Base Case (35%) 7.0% 39% 5.50 7.50% 25% 61% 7.4% 6.0% 37% 23% 8.5% 7.0%
Year 2017 (25% | 15%) 7.0% | 7.0% 39% 6.75 | 8.00 7.50% 50% | 50% 61% 7.1% | 6.8% 6.2% | 6.3% 36% | 34% 25% | 27% 8.0% | 7.5% 7.0% | 7.0%
Year 2018 (25% | 15%) 7.2% | 7.4% 39% 6.50 | 7.00 7.50% 50% | 50% 61% 7.1% | 7.0% 6.2% | 6.5% 36% | 35% 25% | 25% 8.0% | 7.9% 7.1% | 7.3%
Year 2019 (25% | 15%) 7.5% | 8.0% 39% 5.50 | 5.50 9.0% | 10.5% 25% | 25% 61% 7.4% | 7.4% 6.5% | 6.8% 37% | 37% 23% | 23% 8.5% | 8.5% 7.5% | 7.9%
Year 2020 (25% | 15%) 7.7% | 8.3% 39% 5.50 | 5.50 8.6% | 9.7% 25% | 25% 61% 7.4% | 7.4% 6.4% | 6.8% 37% | 37% 23% | 23% 8.5% | 8.5% 7.5% | 7.9%
Flip Date Sensitivity Project
Economics Tax Equity Structuring & Economics Unlevered Sponsor Economics Back Levered Sponsor Economics
Tax Rate Case Unlevered
After-Tax IRR Upfront
Investment Flip
Period After-Tax Flip Yield
Pre-Flip Cash Share
Class B Gross Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Class B Back Leverage
Class B Net Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Base Case (35%) 7.0% 49% 5.50 7.50% 30% 51% 8.0% 6.4% 39% 12% 10.2% 8.8%
Year 2017 (25% | 15%) 7.0% | 7.0% 49% 8.75 | 12.00 7.50% 50% | 50% 51% 7.4% | 7.0% 6.4% | 6.5% 38% | 37% 14% | 15% 8.6% | 7.5% 7.7% | 7.0%
Year 2018 (25% | 15%) 7.3% | 7.5% 49% 8.00 | 10.50 7.50% 50% | 50% 51% 7.5% | 7.2% 6.6% | 6.7% 38% | 37% 13% | 14% 8.9% | 7.9% 8.0% | 7.5%
Year 2019 (25% | 15%) 7.7% | 8.3% 49% 5.50 | 5.50 8.1% | 8.6% 30% | 30% 51% 8.0% | 8.0% 6.9% | 7.4% 39% | 39% 12% | 12% 10.2% | 10.2% 9.3% | 9.7%
Year 2020 (25% | 15%) 7.7% | 8.4% 49% 5.50 | 5.50 8.7% | 9.8% 30% | 30% 51% 8.0% | 8.0% 6.9% | 7.4% 39% | 39% 12% | 12% 10.2% | 10.2% 9.3% | 9.7%
Table 15 – Solar PPA Project – Impact to Flip Date as a Result of a Tax Rate Decrease
Table 16 – Solar SREC Project – Impact to Flip Date as a Result of a Tax Rate Decrease
* Although the Solar PPA Project has a higher Tax Rate Sensitive Value than the Solar SREC project, the flip date moves out further in the Solar SREC Project because there is considerably less cash generated by the project as the SREC contract rolls off and the tax equity investor’s share of the cash sweep is considerably less than for the Solar PPA Project
Solar PPA Project Impact on Tax Equity Upfront Investment & Share of Pre-Flip Cash Given that tax equity investors are unlikely to accept significant deferrals in their flip dates, what is the decrease in upfront investment or increase in share
of pre-flip cash distributions required to maintain the original 5.5 year flip date?
For the Solar PPA Project, the tax equity investor’s share of cash would need to increase from 25% to either 35% or 43% (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases) in
order to maintain the 5.5 year flip date (see Table 17 below)
– The sponsor’s unlevered after-tax IRR increases from 6.0% to either 6.1% or 6.3% (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively)
Alternatively, holding the tax equity investor’s share of pre-flip cash distributions constant, the tax equity investor’s upfront investment would need to increase
from 39% to either 37% or 35% (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases) in order to maintain the 5.5 year flip date (see Table 18 below)
– The sponsor’s unlevered after-tax increases from 6.0% to either 6.1% or 6.3% (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively)
Compared to the base case, the sponsor’s after-tax IRR increases in all cases where the tax rate decreases after 2017
We believe that tax equity investors in solar projects would also seek to maintain their flip dates and return targets, either through lower upfront investments, higher shares of pre-flip cash flow, or through direct indemnities from sponsors. Unlike wind projects, the sponsor’s
after-tax IRRs do not experience a material adverse impact from either a lower tax equity investment or a smaller share of cash distributions
40
Upfront Investment Sensitivity
Project Economics
Tax Equity Structuring & Economics Unlevered Sponsor Economics Back Levered Sponsor Economics
Tax Rate Case Unlevered
After-Tax IRR Upfront
Investment Flip
Period After-Tax Flip Yield
Pre-Flip Cash Share
Class B Gross Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Class B Back Leverage
Class B Net Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Base Case (35%) 7.0% 39% 5.50 7.50% 25% 61% 7.4% 6.0% 37% 23% 8.5% 7.0%
Year 2017 (25% | 15%) 7.0% | 7.0% 37% | 35% 5.50 7.50% 25% 63% | 65% 7.1% | 6.8% 6.1% | 6.3% 38% | 38% 26% | 27% 7.9% | 7.5% 7.0% | 7.0%
Year 2018 (25% | 15%) 7.2% | 7.4% 38% | 37% 5.50 7.50% 25% 62% | 63% 7.2% | 7.0% 6.3% | 6.5% 37% | 38% 25% | 26% 8.1% | 7.9% 7.2% | 7.3%
Year 2019 (25% | 15%) 7.5% | 8.0% 40% | 40% 5.50 7.50% 25% 60% | 60% 7.5% | 7.6% 6.5% | 7.0% 37% | 37% 23% | 22% 8.6% | 8.8% 7.7% | 8.3%
Year 2020 (25% | 15%) 7.7% | 8.3% 40% | 40% 5.50 7.50% 25% 60% | 60% 7.4% | 7.5% 6.5% | 7.0% 37% | 37% 23% | 22% 8.6% | 8.7% 7.6% | 8.2%
Pre-Flip Cash Sensitivity
Project Economics
Tax Equity Structuring & Economics Unlevered Sponsor Economics Back Levered Sponsor Economics
Tax Rate Case Unlevered
After-Tax IRR Upfront
Investment Flip
Period After-Tax Flip Yield
Pre-Flip Cash Share
Class B Gross Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Class B Back Leverage
Class B Net Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Base Case (35%) 7.0% 39% 5.50 7.50% 25% 61% 7.4% 6.0% 37% 23% 8.5% 7.0%
Year 2017 (25% | 15%) 7.0% | 7.0% 39% 5.50 7.50% 35% | 43% 61% 7.0% | 6.8% 6.1% | 6.3% 36% | 34% 25% | 27% 7.9% | 7.5% 6.9% | 6.9%
Year 2018 (25% | 15%) 7.2% | 7.4% 39% 5.50 7.50% 31% | 36% 61% 7.2% | 7.0% 6.2% | 6.5% 36% | 35% 24% | 25% 8.1% | 7.8% 7.1% | 7.3%
Year 2019 (25% | 15%) 7.5% | 8.0% 39% 5.50 7.50% 25% | 25% 61% 7.4% | 7.4% 6.5% | 6.8% 37% | 37% 23% | 23% 8.5% | 8.5% 7.5% | 7.9%
Year 2020 (25% | 15%) 7.7% | 8.3% 39% 5.50 7.50% 25% | 25% 61% 7.4% | 7.4% 6.4% | 6.8% 37% | 37% 23% | 23% 8.5% | 8.5% 7.5% | 7.9%
Table 17 – Solar PPA Project – Increase to Tax Equity Investor Pre-Flip Cash Distributions
Table 18 – Solar PPA Project – Decrease in Tax Equity Upfront Investment
Solar PPA Project Impact of a 2017 Tax Rate Decrease on Sponsor Economics
41
Unlevered Sponsor Yield Unlevered Sponsor Yield Unlevered Sponsor Yield
In order to maintain the tax equity flip IRR and flip date relative to the base case, the tax equity upfront investment would need to decrease by ~2% to ~4% of total cost (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively). Alternatively, if the tax equity partnership structuring parameters were held constant, the flip date would move out from 5.50 years to either 6.75 years or 8.00 years (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively). The higher sponsor investment causes the pre-tax IRR to decrease in most cases, but the lower
future tax liability results in a higher after-tax IRR
Levered Sponsor Yield Levered Sponsor Yield Levered Sponsor Yield
Flip Date Sensitivity (1) Upfront Investment Sensitivity (3) Pre-Flip Cash Sensitivity (2)
7.4% 7.1% 6.8%
6.0% 6.2% 6.3%
5.50 6.75
8.00
–
5
10
15
20
25
–
3%
6%
9%
12%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Fli
p P
erio
d (
Yrs
)
Un
lev
ered
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax Flip Date
7.4% 7.0% 6.8%
6.0% 6.1% 6.3%
25%
35%
43%
–
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
–
3%
6%
9%
12%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Tax
Eq
uit
y S
har
e o
f P
re-F
lip
Cas
h (
%)
Un
lev
ered
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax TE Pre-Flip Cash
8.5% 8.0%
7.5% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
5.50 6.75
8.00
–
5
10
15
20
25
–
3%
6%
9%
12%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Fli
p P
eri
od
(Y
rs)
Le
ve
red
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax Flip Date
8.5% 7.9%
7.5% 7.0% 6.9% 6.9%
25%
35%
43%
–
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
–
3%
6%
9%
12%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Tax
Eq
uit
y S
har
e o
f P
re-F
lip
Cas
h (
%)
Lev
ered
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax TE Pre-Flip Cash
8.5% 7.9%
7.5% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
23% 26% 27%
–
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
–
3%
6%
9%
12%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Up
fro
nt
Sp
on
sor
Eq
uit
y (
%)
Le
ve
red
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax Upfront Sponsor Equity
(1) Tax equity receives 25% of cash distributions (2) Initial flip period of 5.50 years (3) Tax equity receives 25% of pre-flip cash distributions for an initial period of 5.50 years
7.4% 7.1% 6.8%
6.0% 6.1% 6.3%
61% 63% 65%
–
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
–
3%
6%
9%
12%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Up
fro
nt
Sp
on
sor
Eq
uit
y (
%)
Un
lev
ered
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax Upfront Sponsor Equity
Solar SREC Project Impact on Tax Equity Upfront Investment & Share of Pre-Flip Cash Given that tax equity investors are unlikely to accept significant deferrals in their flip dates, what is the decrease in upfront investment or increase in share of pre-flip cash distributions required to maintain the original 5.5 year flip date?
For the Solar SREC Project, the tax equity investor’s share of cash would need to increase from 30% to either 33% or 35% (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively) to maintain the 5.5 year flip date (see Table 19 below)
– The sponsor’s unlevered after-tax IRR remains at 6.4% for both the 25% and 15% tax rate in 2017 cases
Alternatively, holding the tax equity investor’s share of pre-flip cash distributions constant, the tax equity investor’s upfront investment would need to decrease from 49% to either 47% or 46% (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases) in order to maintain the 5.5 year flip date (see Table 20 below)
– The sponsor’s unlevered after-tax IRR remains at 6.4% for both the 25% and 15% 2017 tax rate cases
Unlike in the Solar PPA Project, the sponsor’s levered after-tax IRR experiences a decrease of 150+ basis points for both the 25% and 15% tax rate in 2017 cases
– The cause of this difference between the Solar PPA Project and Solar SREC Project is the pattern of the sponsor’s taxable income. Taxable income in SREC projects is front loaded due to the higher near-term SREC prices. The post-flip taxable income, 95% of which is allocated to the sponsor, is typically lower in an SREC project than in a PPA project, and the sponsor therefore receives less of a benefit from a tax rate decrease
We believe that tax equity investors in solar projects would also seek to maintain their flip dates and return targets, either through a lower upfront investment, a higher share of pre-flip cash flow, or a direct indemnity from the sponsor. Unlike wind projects, the sponsor’s after-tax IRRs are not materially adversely impacted by either the lower tax equity investment or a higher share of cash
42
Upfront Investment Sensitivity
Project Economics
Tax Equity Structuring & Economics Unlevered Sponsor Economics Back Levered Sponsor Economics
Tax Rate Case Unlevered
After-Tax IRR Upfront
Investment Flip
Period After-Tax Flip Yield
Pre-Flip Cash Share
Class B Gross Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Class B Back Leverage
Class B Net Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Base Case (35%) 7.0% 49% 5.50 7.50% 30% 51% 8.0% 6.4% 39% 12% 10.2% 8.8%
Year 2017 (25% | 15%) 7.0% | 7.0% 47% | 46% 5.50 7.50% 30% 53% | 54% 7.5% | 7.0% 6.4% | 6.4% 39% | 39% 14% | 15% 8.9% | 7.7% 7.9% | 7.3%
Year 2018 (25% | 15%) 7.3% | 7.5% 48% | 46% 5.50 7.50% 30% 52% | 54% 7.6% | 7.2% 6.5% | 6.6% 39% | 39% 13% | 14% 9.1% | 8.2% 8.2% | 7.7%
Year 2019 (25% | 15%) 7.7% | 8.3% 49% | 49% 5.50 7.50% 30% 51% | 51% 8.1% | 8.2% 7.0% | 7.6% 39% | 39% 12% | 12% 10.5% | 10.9% 9.6% | 10.3%
Year 2020 (25% | 15%) 7.7% | 8.4% 49% | 50% 5.50 7.50% 30% 51% | 50% 8.2% | 8.4% 7.1% | 7.8% 39% | 39% 12% | 11% 10.9% | 11.7% 9.9% | 11.2%
Pre-Flip Cash Sensitivity
Project Economics
Tax Equity Structuring & Economics Unlevered Sponsor Economics Back Levered Sponsor Economics
Tax Rate Case Unlevered
After-Tax IRR Upfront
Investment Flip
Period After-Tax Flip Yield
Pre-Flip Cash Share
Class B Gross Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Class B Back Leverage
Class B Net Equity
Pre-Tax After-Tax Carryforward
Base Case (35%) 7.0% 49% 5.50 7.50% 30% 51% 8.0% 6.4% 39% 12% 10.2% 8.8%
Year 2017 (25% | 15%) 7.0% | 7.0% 49% 5.50 7.50% 33% | 35% 51% 7.4% | 6.9% 6.4% | 6.4% 38% | 37% 13% | 14% 8.8% | 7.6% 7.9% | 7.2%
Year 2018 (25% | 15%) 7.3% | 7.5% 49% 5.50 7.50% 32% | 34% 51% 7.6% | 7.1% 6.5% | 6.6% 38% | 37% 13% | 14% 9.1% | 8.1% 8.1% | 7.6%
Year 2019 (25% | 15%) 7.7% | 8.3% 49% 5.50 7.50% 30% | 29% 51% 8.1% | 8.2% 7.0% | 7.6% 39% | 40% 12% | 12% 10.6% | 10.9% 9.6% | 10.4%
Year 2020 (25% | 15%) 7.7% | 8.4% 49% 5.50 7.50% 29% | 28% 51% 8.2% | 8.4% 7.1% | 7.8% 40% | 40% 12% | 11% 11.0% | 11.7% 10.0% | 11.2%
Table 19 – Solar SREC Project – Increase to Tax Equity Investor Pre-Flip Cash Distributions
Table 20 – Solar SREC Project – Decrease in Tax Equity Upfront Investment
Solar SREC Project Impact of a 2017 Tax Rate Decrease on Sponsor Economics
43
Unlevered Sponsor Yield Unlevered Sponsor Yield Unlevered Sponsor Yield
In order to hold maintain the tax equity flip IRR and flip date relative to the base case, the tax equity upfront investment would need to decrease by ~2% to ~3% of total cost (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively). Alternatively, if the tax equity partnership structuring parameters were held constant, the
flip date would move out from 5.50 years to either 8.75 years or 12.00 years (25% or 15% tax rate in 2017 cases, respectively)
Levered Sponsor Yield Levered Sponsor Yield Levered Sponsor Yield
Flip Date Sensitivity (1) Upfront Investment Sensitivity (3) Pre-Flip Cash Sensitivity (2)
8.0% 7.4%
7.0% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5%
5.50
8.75
12.00
–
5
10
15
20
25
–
3%
6%
9%
12%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Fli
p P
erio
d (
Yrs
)
Un
lev
ered
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax Flip Date
8.0% 7.4%
6.9% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4%
30% 33% 35%
–
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
–
3%
6%
9%
12%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Tax
Eq
uit
y S
har
e o
f P
re-F
lip
Cas
h (
%)
Un
lev
ered
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax TE Pre-Flip Cash
8.0% 7.5%
7.0% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4%
51% 53% 54%
–
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
–
3%
6%
9%
12%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Up
fro
nt
Sp
on
sor
Eq
uit
y (
%)
Un
lev
ered
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax Upfront Sponsor Equity
10.2%
8.6%
7.5%
8.8%
7.7% 7.0%
5.50
8.75
12.00
–
5
10
15
20
25
–
3%
6%
9%
12%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Fli
p P
eri
od
(Y
rs)
Le
ve
red
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax Flip Date
10.2%
8.8%
7.6%
8.8%
7.9% 7.2%
30% 33% 35%
–
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
–
3%
6%
9%
12%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Tax
Eq
uit
y S
har
e o
f P
re-F
lip
Cas
h (
%)
Lev
ered
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax TE Pre-Flip Cash
10.2%
8.9%
7.7%
8.8%
7.9% 7.3%
12% 14% 15% –
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
–
3%
6%
9%
12%
35% Tax Rate 25% Tax Rate 15% Tax Rate
Up
fro
nt
Sp
on
sor
Eq
uit
y (
%)
Le
ve
red
Sp
on
sor
IRR
Pre-Tax After-Tax Upfront Sponsor Equity
(1) Tax equity receives 30% of cash distributions (2) Initial flip period of 5.50 years (3) Tax equity receives 30% of pre-flip cash distributions for an initial period of 5.50 years
Other Potential Tax Reform Considerations Impact of 100% Expensing & Loss of Net Interest Expense Deductions on Solar Projects
Both major Republican tax reform proposals call for replacement of the current tax depreciation system with a full expensing of capital
expenditures in the year incurred and elimination of net interest expense deductions
At face value, the acceleration of cost recovery deductions should provide a time value of money benefit. However, it would create significant
structuring issues with solar projects owned by tax equity partnerships
In order for 99% of the ITC to be allocated to a tax equity investor in year one, the tax equity investor would need to take on a DRO much larger
than what is acceptable under current market conditions. Otherwise, the tax equity investor’s capital account would be driven negative in year
one by the capital expenditure expense and a portion of the losses and tax credit would be reallocated to the sponsor
If capital expenditures become fully deductible in the first year and net interest expense becomes non-deductible, tax equity investors would have to take on much larger DROs in order to prevent reallocations of tax credits. In the Solar PPA Project, the DRO would need to be as high as 175% of the tax equity investment, and in the Solar SREC Project, the DRO would need to be as high as 104% of the tax equity investment
44
Solar PPA Project Project
Economics Tax Equity Economics Sponsor Economics
Unlevered After-Tax IRR
Flip Period After-Tax Flip Yield
Pre-Flip Cash Share
DRO Class B
Gross Equity Back
Leverage Net Equity
Unlevered Pre-Tax
IRR
Unlevered After-Tax
IRR
Levered Pre-Tax
IRR
Levered After-Tax
IRR
2017 - 25% Tax Rate 7.5% 5.50 7.5% 25% 161% 63.0% 37.0% 25.0% 7.1% 6.2% 8.0% 6.7%
Delta from MACRS Case 0.5% 141% (0.3%) 0.0% (0.3%) 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% (0.3%)
2017- 15% Tax Rate 7.0% 5.50 7.5% 25% 175% 65.0% 38.0% 27.0% 6.6% 6.1% 7.2% 6.5%
Delta from MACRS Case - 155% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% (0.2%) (0.2%) (0.3%) (0.5%)
Solar SREC Project Project
Economics Tax Equity Economics Sponsor Economics
Unlevered After-Tax IRR
Flip Period
After-Tax Flip Yield
Pre-Flip Cash Share
DRO Class B
Gross Equity Back
Leverage Net Equity
Unlevered Pre-Tax
IRR
Unlevered After-Tax
IRR
Levered Pre-Tax
IRR
Levered After-Tax
IRR
2017 25% Tax Rate 7.9% 5.50 7.5% 30% 96% 51.9% 39.3% 12.6% 7.7% 6.8% 9.8% 7.7%
Delta from MACRS Case 1.0% 76% (0.8%) 0.1% (0.9%) 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% (0.3%)
2017- 15% Tax Rate 7.5% 5.50 7.5% 30% 104% 53.8% 39.3% 14.5% 7.1% 6.6% 8.1% 7.1%
Delta from MACRS Case 0.5% 84% (0.3%) 0.1% (0.5%) 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% (0.2%)
Table 21 – Other Potential Tax Reforms – Impact on Solar PPA Project
Table 22 – Other Potential Tax Reforms – Impact on Solar SREC Project