USElection2016:LGBTQCandidateWatch

AndrewReynolds(UniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill)CharlesW.Gossett(CaliforniaStateUniversity,Sacramento)

Thereisoverwhelmingevidencetoshowthatopenlygay,lesbian,bisexual,transgenderandqueerpeopleinelectedofficehaveahugeroletoplayinchangingheartsandminds.Weknowthatasinglevoiceinalegislaturecandramaticallyalterthetoneofdebateandimprovelawsthataffectthequeercommunity.Whenthereisnovoiceintheroom–aswasthecaseintheNorthCarolinastatelegislatureinMarch2016–homophobicandtransphobiclegislationlikeHB2happens.IfyouidentifyasLGBTQ,orareanally,thereismuchtowatchastheelectionreturnscomeinnextTuesdaynight/Wednesdaymorning.AsthePresidentialraceconsumesourattention,downballotLGBTQcandidateswillbebattlingtorepresenttownsandcitiesacrossAmerica.The seven out incumbent congressmen and women all look likely to be re-elected. The largest LGBTQ congressional caucus in history was eight when Mike Michaud (Maine) was also out in the House in 2013. But next Tuesday the record could be broken with Angie Craig (MN2), Matt Heinz (AZ2) and Denise Juneau (MT1) all with decent shots of ousting incumbent Republicans. Brady Walkinshaw (WA 7) and Jim Gray (KY Senate) could add to those record numbers but Walkinshaw faces an uphill battle against the equally progressive Democrat, Pramila Jayapal, who beat him by 17% in the primary and it remains a long shot for Gray to oust Rand Paul in Kentucky. Other candidates to watch are Democrat Jim Moeller in the Washington 3rd who hopes to benefit from the Trump down ballot effect in his race to oust the incumbent Republican, and Republican Paul Babeu (AZ1) who, if elected, would be the first out Republican elected to the House. ClayCopeintheConnecticut5thistheRepublicancandidateinatraditionallysafeDemocraticdistrictandBaoNguyenishead-to-headwithanotherDemocratintheCaliforniawhobestedhimbynearly29%intheblanketprimary. However, the US remains far behind the curve. The cohort in the House of Representatives would have to hit ten before America would make it into the top-ten list of LGBTQ inclusive parliaments around the world. (For

example, there are 39 out LGB MPs in the British House of Commons, about6%ofthetotalmembership). KateBrownofOregonshouldeasilycementherpositionastheonlyoutLGBTQGovernorbuttherealactionwillbeinthestatehouseraces.Over100outcandidatesarerunningbut,despitealltherecentlegalandsocialprogressongayrights,thenumberofLGBTQstatehousememberslookssettodeclineforthethirdstraightyear.Rightnowwehavebeenabletoidentify111incumbentoutLGBTQStateHousemembers.Nineteenarenotrunningagainforavarietyofreasonsandnineteenarenotupforre-electionthiscycle.FiveareattemptingtomoveuptothestateSenatefromthestateHouse.Thereare38newcandidates.Ifalltheincumbentswin(68)andallofthemembersnowrunningfortheSenatewin(5)andallthosenewcandidateswithastrongchanceofwinning,dowin(15)-alongwiththe19membersnotupforre-election-thatisstillonly107.MostworryinglythenumberofstateswithzeroLGBTQvoiceintheirstatelegislatureswillgofromtentoatleastthirteen.Delaware,Hawaii,andSouthDakotaarelosingtheironlyLGBTQmembers.Thatisanextra3millionAmericanslivinginstateswithoutasingleoutLGBTQvoiceintheirstatecapital.Unsurprisingly,thereisadramaticpartisandivideinthestates.ThereareonlysixRepublicansinour2016databasecomparedto142Democraticincumbentsornewcandidates.TwooftheRepublicanincumbentsarerunningagain,oneissteppingdown,oneisnotupforre-election.OnenewRepublicancandidate-inNewHampshire–islikelytobeelected–theothernot,keepingtheGOPLGBTQnumbersfrozenatfour.Transgendercandidatesremainincrediblyrare.MistySnowandMistyPlowrightwillheroicallylosetheircongressionalracesinUtahandColoradobutRachaelBoothdoeshaveasmallchanceofbecomingthefirsteverouttranspersontotakestatehouseofficeintheGrafton15thHouseDistrictofNewHampshire.In2014aRepublicanwontheseatby500votesbutnextTuesdaythereisnoincumbentandthereisanoutsidechanceBoothcouldmakehistory.Therearecurrentlyonly

threetransgenderAmericansinelectedofficeinallofthenation(aschoolboardmemberinMassachusetts,aJudgeinCalifornia,andalocalalderpersoninWisconsin).

OUTLGBTQCONGRESSIONALCANDIDATESNovember2016

State Candidate District Party PVI

ARIZONAPaul Babeu AZ 1 Rep (open) Matt Heinz AZ 2 Dem (R+3) Kyrsten Sinema AZ 9 Dem (R+1)

CALIFORNIA Mark Takano CA 41 Dem (D+9) Bao Nguyen CA 46 Dem (D+9)

COLORADO Jared Polis CO 2 Dem (D+8) Misty Plowright CO 5 Dem (R+13)

CONNECTICUT Clay Cope CT 5 Rep (D+3) MINNESOTA Angie Craig MN 2 Dem (open) MONTANA Denise Juneau MT 1 Dem (R+7) KENTUCKY Jim Gray Senate Dem

NEWHAMPSHIRE Shawn O’Connor NH1 Ind (R+1) NEWYORK Sean P Maloney NY 18 Dem (even)

RHODEISLAND David Cicilline RI 1 Dem (D+15) UTAH Misty Snow Senate Dem

WASHINGTON Jim Moeller WA 3 Dem (R+2) Brady Walkinshaw WA 7 Dem (D+29)

WISCONSIN Mark Pocan WI 2 Dem (D+17) http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings.PVI:PartisanVotingIndex

OUTLGBTQSTATELEGISLATIVECANDIDATESNovember2016

STATE OfficeHolder District PartyKey Incumbent District Party New Candidate District Party ARIZONAARIZONA

Robert Meza Senate 30 Dem Daniel Hernandez House 2 Dem

CALIFORNIA Toni Atkins Senate 39 Dem CALIFORNIA Ricardo Lara Senate 33 Dem CALIFORNIA Cathleen Galgiani Senate 5 Dem CALIFORNIA Susan Eggman House 13 Dem CALIFORNIA Evan Low House 28 Dem CALIFORNIA Sabrina Cervantes House 60 Dem CALIFORNIA Todd Gloria House 78 Dem CALIFORNIA Scott Wiener Senate 11 Dem CALIFORNIA Matthew Craffey House 50 Rep

CALIFORNIA Greg Rodriguez House 42 Dem

COLORADO Dominick Moreno Senate 32 Dem COLORADO Paul Rosenthal House 9 Dem COLORADO Joann Ginal House 52 Dem COLORADO Leslie Herod House 8 Dem

CONNECTICUT Beth Bye Senate 5 Dem CONNECTICUT John F. Scott House 40 Rep

FLORIDA David Richardson House 113 Dem FLORIDA Ken Keechl House 93 Dem FLORIDA Beth Tuura House 47 Dem FLORIDA Carlos Smith House 49 Dem FLORIDA Jennifer Webb House 69 Dem

GEORGIA Karla Drenner House 85 Dem GEORGIA Keisha Waites House 60 Dem GEORGIA Park Cannon House 58 Dem GEORGIA Sam Park House 101 Dem GEORGIA Bob Gibeling House 54 Dem

IDAHO John McCrostie House 16A Dem

IOWA Liz Bennett House 65 Dem IOWA Bryce Smith House 18 Dem

ILLINOIS Greg Harris House 13 Dem ILLINOIS Kelly Cassidy House 14 Dem ILLINOIS Sam Yingling House 62 Dem

INDIANA Dana Black House 88 Dem

MAINE Henry Beck Senate 16 Dem MAINE Matt Moonen House 38 Dem MAINE Andrew McLean House 27 Dem MAINE Justin Chenette Senate 31 Dem MAINE Craig Hickman House 81 Dem

MAINE Ryan Fecteau House 11 Dem

MASSACHUSETTS Elizabeth Malia House 11-Suffolk Dem MASSACHUSETTS Sarah Peake House 4-Barnstable Dem MASSACHUSETTS Kate Hogan House 3-Middlesex Dem MASSACHUSETTS Stan Rosenberg Senate Hampshire Dem MASSACHUSETTS Jack Lewis House 7-Middlesex Dem MASSACHUSETTS Julian Cyr Senate Cape Dem

MICHIGAN Jeremy Moss House 35 Dem MICHIGAN Jon Hoadley House 60 Dem MICHIGAN Tim Sneller House 50 Dem

MINNESOTA Karen Clark House 62A Dem MINNESOTA Scott Dibble Senate 61 Dem MINNESOTA Susan Allen House 62B Dem MINNESOTA Erin Maye Quade House 57A Dem

MISSOURI Randy Dunn House 23 Dem MISSOURI Greg Razer House 25 Dem

MONTANA Bryce Bennett House 91 Dem MONTANA Andrea Olsen House 100 Dem

NEVADA David Parks Senate 7 Dem NEVADA Patricia Spearman Senate 1 Dem NEVADA Kelvin Atkinson Senate 4 Dem NEVADA Nelson Araujo House 3 Dem NEVADA Devon Reese Senate 15 Dem

NEWHAMPSHIRE Ed Butler House 7 Dem NEWHAMPSHIRE Robert Theberge House 3 Dem NEWHAMPSHIRE Elizabeth Edwards House 11 Dem NEWHAMPSHIRE Aaron Gill House 2 Dem NEWHAMPSHIRE Rachael Booth House 15 Dem NEWHAMPSHIRE Daniel Innis Senate 24 Rep

NEWMEXICO Jacob Candelaria Senate 26 Dem NEWMEXICO Liz Stefanics Senate 39 Dem

NEWYORK Deborah Glick House 66 Dem NEWYORK Daniel J. O'Donnell House 69 Dem NEWYORK Matthew Titone House 61 Dem NEWYORK Harry Bronson House 138 Dem NEWYORK Brad Hoylman Senate 27 Dem NEWYORK John DeVito Senate 3 Dem

NORTHCAROLINA Cecil Brockman House 60 Dem NORTHCAROLINA Jane Campbell House 98 Dem

NORTHDAKOTA Joshua Boschee House 44 Dem NORTHDAKOTA Kyle Thorson House 18 Dem

OHIO Nickie Antonio House 13 Dem OHIO Tommy Greene House 16 Dem

OREGON Tina Kotek House 44 Dem OREGON Rob Nosse House 42 Dem OREGON Paul Southwick House 37 Dem OREGON Karin Power House 41 Dem OREGON Greg Delgado Senate 27 Dem

PENNSYLVANIA Brian Sims House 182 Dem

RHODEISLAND Deb Ruggiero House 74 Dem RHODEISLAND Donna Nesselbush Senate 15 Dem

TEXAS Mary Gonzalez House 75 Dem TEXAS Celia Israel House 50 Dem

VERMONT Bill Lippert House 4-2 Chitt Dem VERMONT Matt Trieber House 3-Windham Dem VERMONT Joanna Cole House 6-1 Chitt Dem VERMONT Debbie Ingram Senate Chitt Dem

WASHINGTON Laurie Jinkins House 27A Dem WASHINGTON Christine Kilduff House 28B Dem WASHINGTON Joan McBride House 48B Dem WASHINGTON Nicole Macri House 43A Dem WASHINGTON Dan Shih House 43A Dem WASHINGTON Kathy Gillespie House 18B Dem

WESTVIRGINIA Stephen Skinner Senate 16 Dem WESTVIRGINIA Rod Snyder House 67 Dem

WISCONSIN Tim Carpenter Senate 3 Dem WISCONSIN JoCasta Zamarippa House 8 Dem WISCONSIN Todd Novak House 51 Rep WISCONSIN Mark Spreitzer House 45 Dem WISCONSIN Joe Huftel House 75 Dem

WYOMING Cathy Connolly House 13 Dem Key INCUMBENT District Party New Candidate District Party

StateLegislatorsNotUpforRe-electionin2016ALABAMA Patricia Todd House 54 Dem

COLORADO Lucia Guzman Senate 34 Dem

IOWA Matt McCoy Senate 21 Dem

MARYLAND Maggie McIntosh House 43 Dem

MARYLAND Richard Madaleno Senate 18 Dem

MARYLAND Anne R. Kaiser House 14 Dem

MARYLAND Mary Washington House 43 Dem

MARYLAND Bonnie Cullison House 19 Dem

MARYLAND Luke Clippinger House 46 Dem

NEWJERSEY Reed Gusciora House 15 Dem

NEWJERSEY Tim Eustace House 38 Dem

NORTHDAKOTA Randy Boehning House 27 Republican

OKLAHOMA Kay Floyd Senate 46 Dem

UTAH Jim Dabakis Senate 2 Dem

VIRGINIA Adam Ebbin Senate 30 Dem

VIRGINIA Mark Sickles House 43 Dem

VIRGINIA Mark Levine House 45 Dem

WASHINGTON Marko Liias Senate 21 Dem

WASHINGTON Jamie Pedersen Senate 43 Dem DatacompliedbytheUNCLGBTQRepresentationandRightsResearchInitiative,OliviaJackson-JordanandCharlesW.Gossett.https://lgbtqrepresentationandrights.orgWewillbelivetweetingLGBTQresultsthroughoutelectionnight@AndyReynoldsUNCTheUNCLGBTQRepresentationandRightsResearchInitiativeiscurrentlytheonlycomprehensivesourceofdataforusebyscholarsinterestedintheissueofLGBTQrepresentation.TheCenterwelcomesinformationfromanyonewithknowledgeofLGBTQelectedlegislatorsandotherelectedofficeholdersinorderthatwemaykeepthemostaccurateinformationpossible.Sendinformationto:asreynol@email.unc.edu