u.s. department of the interior u.s. geological survey climate change & invaders: sources of...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region
Cindy KolarScience Advisor, Fisheries Program
USGS – Reston, VA
![Page 2: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Drivers of Ecosystem Change
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis.Island Press, Washington, DC.
![Page 3: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
What are Invasive Species?
Executive Order 13112 (1999):
• "Invasive species" means an alien species whose introduction does or is likely to cause economic or environmental harm or harm to human health.
• "Alien species" means, with respect to a particular ecosystem, any species, including its seeds, eggs, spores, or other biological material capable of propagating that species, that is not native to that ecosystem.
![Page 4: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
• Decimated native fishes
• High annual cost of control: currently $22 million/year
Photo: USFWS
Photo: USFWS
Sea Lamprey (Petromyzon marinus)
Figure: USGS
![Page 5: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Zebra & Quagga Mussels (Dreissena sp.)
• Dramatic impacts on ecosystem
• Clog water intakes at a cost of $3billion/yr (Pimentel et al. 1999)
Photo: USGS
http://nas.er.usgs.gov
![Page 6: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Purple loosestrife (Lythrum salicaria)
http://nas.er.usgs.gov
Photo: Byrd, Mississippi State University, Bugwood.org
Photo: USGS
• Decrease biodiversity of invertebrates
• Decreased native plant biomass
![Page 7: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Establishment
Negative Effects
PREVENT
ERADICATE
CONTROL
Transportation
Introduction
Within native range
Process of Species Spread
![Page 8: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region
Kling, G.W., K. Hayhoe, L.B. Johnson, J.J. Magnuson, S. Polasky, S.K. Robinson, B.J. Shuter, M.M. Wander, D.J. Wuebbles, D.R. Zak, R.L. Lindroth, S.C. Moser, and M.L. Wilson (2003). Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on our Communities and Ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Ecological Society of America, Washington, D.C.
http://dspace.cigilibrary.org/jspui/handle/123456789/23494
![Page 9: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Climate Change: Temperature Increases
In the Great Lakes, seeing fewer days below freezing
Water is warming twice as fast as air
Kling et al. (2003)
![Page 10: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Temperature Increases and Trade
Commercial shipping historically an important vector for introducing invasive species in the Great Lakes
Decreased ice cover will open additional shipping routes
Allow for faster and potentially more sea voyages
Could improve survivorship of organisms associated with ships
http://www.economist.com/node/21530079
![Page 11: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Other Expected Climate Changes in the Great Lakes
Changes in water and air temperature, water depth, velocity, and timing
Changes in hydrologic and fire regimes (increase in precipitation and storms)
Longer growing season – longer period of stratification
Shorter winter
![Page 12: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Result of Changing Climate
All act to alter habitat suitability for plants and animals, native and nonnative
Shifts in community composition Range changes of native and nonnative
species Some nonnative species may become invasive ‘Winners’ and ‘losers’ will emerge
![Page 13: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Invasive Species and Climate Change
Establishment of additional species Established nonnative species may become
invasive Impact of existing invasive species may
change Distribution of existing invasive species
![Page 14: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Predicting Range Shifts
Rodda et al. (2009)
Burmese Pythons
![Page 15: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Case Study: Common Reed (Phragmites australis)
• Tall, invasive wetland plant that forms dense stands
• Impairs wetland functions• Reduces biodiversity and
property values• Limits human uses of
beaches and recreational areas
• Extremely difficult and costly to eradicate once established
![Page 16: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Case Study: Common Reed (Phragmites australis)
• USGS Great Lakes Science Center (Mazur and Kowalski) in collaboration with Michigan Tech Research Institute - Great Lakes Restoration Initiative project
• Used current extent of Phragmites and vulnerability risk assessment to create a decision support tool to aid managers prioritize control efforts
![Page 17: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Case Study: Common Reed (Phragmites australis)
• Sampled 800 wetlands and used satellite imagery to map current distribution of Phragmites
• Used a Geographic Information System (GIS) and knowledge of hydrologic alteration, shoreline
• development, and excessive nitrogen to develop a Habitat Suitability Index
![Page 18: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Phragmites Spread Potential
• Low lake levels recently have provided opportunities Phragmites to colonize newly exposed areas
• Scientists simulated effects of additional lake level declines and the Habitat Suitability Model to predict potential spread
![Page 19: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Phragmites Decision Support Tool
• Vulnerability assessment and distribution map available online
• Tool allows land managers, home owners, and other users to access and visualize mapping data at a variety of scales
http://www.mtri.org/phragmites.html
![Page 20: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Tipping the Scale?
• Could climate change improve marginal conditions for species yet to invade?
• Case Study: Asian carp
• Bighead and silver carps• Large-bodied planktivores• Introduced in the 1970s• Escaped into waterways
Bighead carp
Silver carp
![Page 21: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Extent of Distribution
Reproducing in about 20 states Nonindigenous Species Database (http://nas.er.usgs.gov)
Bighead carpSilver carp
![Page 22: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Preventing Entry into the Great Lakes
Proximity to Lakes Michigan and Erie
Asian Carp Regional Coordinating Committee
![Page 23: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Factors Potentially Limiting Success
Suitable temperature Availability of suitable spawning and
nursery habitat Sufficient available food resources
![Page 24: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Bighead Silver
Maps based only on air temperature and other factors determine where fish can live
Need 2685 degree days over 15C to mature Might not be currently met in some Lake Superior
drainages Affects food availability and potentially habitat
Suitable Temperature?Mandrak and Cudmore 2004
![Page 25: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Spawning and Nursery Habitat?
Need flowing water to spawn (perhaps around 100 km)
River length needed related to temperature
May be additional pressure to remove barriers to flow
Kolar et al. 2007
![Page 26: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Food Resources?
Cooke and Hill (2010) Bioenergetics modeling Considered only planktonic food resources Predicted that Asian carp should do well in
parts of Lake Erie and other productive areas
But not in open water of Great Lakes Increase in temperature would increase
productivity and food availability
![Page 27: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Asian Carp and Ecosystem ServicesProvisioning Services
• Water quality• Transportation• Navigation• Restructuring of fish
communities• Recreational angling• Commercial fishing
Regulatory Services• Maintenance of
water quality• Flood flow buffering
Cultural Services• Recreation• Tourism• Existence values
Supporting Services• Nutrient cycling and primary production• Ecosystem resilience• Habitat for native species
![Page 28: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Asian Carp and Ecosystem Services
Three factors potentially affecting establishment and ecological effects of Asian carp in the Great Lakes would be exasperated by increases in temperature
![Page 29: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Other Factors Affecting Habitat
Water depth, velocity, timing Hydrologic and fire regimes Physical, chemical, and biological
components of habitat Invasive sp. advantage: habitat generalists
![Page 30: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Response of Plants and Animals
Where species are located: range shifts Timing of biological events: phenology Biotic interactions: predation, competition
![Page 31: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Nonnative Diseases & Pathogens: Ichthyophonus
Protozoan parasite Yukon chinook salmon
June10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
1991-1996
25 year Yukon temperature means
July August September
Month
1981-1990
1975-1980
June10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
1991-1996
25 year Yukon temperature means
July August September
Month
1981-1990
1975-1980
Jim Winton, Western Fisheries Research Center
![Page 32: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Prevalence of Ichthyophonus in the Yukon River System
![Page 33: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Considerations
• Preventing & controlling invasive species is high priority & resource-intensive
• Invasive species issues are complicated by climate change, other global changes, & associated uncertainties
• Understanding and minimizing these uncertainties will become more important with additional environmental stressors
![Page 34: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022110322/56649d085503460f949d9c64/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Considerations
• Baseline information on species distribution is critical to future success
• Modeling predict future scenarios is important to resource managers
• USGS will continue to maintain & improve databases & provide research to help managers make more informed decisions