urban transportation planning – fall 2006 assignment no 4 · urban transportation planning –...

Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006

Assignment no 4

� Let us begin by a world tour thanks to J.Kenworthy and F. Laube – “The Millennium Cities. Data base for Sustainable Transport” sponsored by the UITP

� A follow-up to the 1989 “Cities and Automobile Dependence” by P.Newman and J.Kenworthy

1


… And it is complemented by its follow-up

� A set of 50 cities with evolution of performance between 1995 and 2001, plus mobility policies in 2006

2


Urban Density is critical…

3

0WesternEurope(55.1)

EasternEurope(71.36)

NorthAmerica(18.67)

Latin America(89.66)

World Regions

Pers

ons/

Ha

Middle East(76.79)

Asian Affluent(134.36)

OtherAsian(189.75)

Ocean A

(15.02)

Africa

(101.67)

40

80

120

160

200

URBAN DENSITY

.Figure by MIT OCW, adapted from the UITP Millennium Cities Database.


The higher the density, the higher…

… the percentage of sustainable modes 4

020

U.S.A. Western Europe

40Density (Inhabitants/Hectare)

80 160 320

20

Mod

al C

hoic

e (%

Pub

lic T

rans

port

-C

yclin

g-W

alki

ng)

40

60

80

100All Cities

Density (Inhabitants/Hectare) vs Modal Choice (% Public Transport + Cycling + Walking)

Figure by MIT OCW, adapted from the UITP Millennium Cities Database.


Job density is also a critical parameter

As Joel Garreau says (The Edge Cities), when the president moves to the suburbs, he takes the office along

0WesternEurope(18.29)


NorthAmerica(11.34)

Latin America(22.6)

World Regions

Perc

ent

Middle East(13.32)


OtherAsian(25.53)

Ocean A

(15.06)

Africa

(14.03)

5

10

15

20

25

30

Proportion of Jobs in CBD


6

0

WesternEurope(2.89)

EasternEurope(2.81)

NorthAmerica(3.5)

Latin America(1.71)

World Regions

Middle East(2.34)


OtherAsian(2.13)

Ocean A

(3.86)

Africa

(1.59)

1

2

3

4

Total Daily Trips per Capita


Number of trips, nearly a constant

� The number of trips result from the activities profile

� But be aware that non-motorized trips may go unaccounted for, in some surveys

Trip

s/Pe

rson


7

0

WesternEurope(31.04)


NorthAmerica(8.86)


World Regions

Perc

ent

Middle East(14.96)


OtherAsian(39.9)

Ocean A

(15.8)

Africa

(42.17)

10

20

30

40 * Percentage of Non Motorised Modes Over all Trips


Percentage of non-motorized trips

Is this a surprise?



… not to be taken lightly

From Mean Streets 2000 by the Surface Transportation Project Policy (STPP)

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0.200 0.10

Fewer People are Overweight in Places where People Walk More

0.05 0.15 0.25(one-tenth of a mile) (quarter mile)

0.20 0.30

0.30

Perc

ent o

f Peo

ple

who

are

O

verw

eigh

t 0.40

0.50



Road building

Notice that the

0



NorthAmerica(6080.07)


Middle East(1640.14)


OtherAsian(591.06)

Ocean A

(8059.89)

Africa

(1425.53)

2000

4000

6000

8000 Length of Road per 1000 PeopleU.S. ratio doubles the one of Western Europe

9

World Regions

m/1

000

Pers

ons


10

0





World Regions

Uni

ts/1

000

Peop

le

Middle East(185.26)


OtherAsian(88.3)

Ocean A

(575.36)

Africa

(102.12)

100

300

200

400

500

600

Passenger Cars per 1000 People


Automobile ownership

As the difference is not as big as the supply of roads…

… is congestion in Western Europe higher than in the States?



Trip length by car

If the number of trips are comparable…

Does the average car trip length increase inversely proportional to the metropolitan density?

11

0





World Regions


Asian Affluent(12195)

OtherAsian(9963.11)

Ocean A

(12904.22)

Africa

(11834.34)

4000

8000

12000

14000

Passenger Car Kilometers per Car

Km

/Uni

t

20000



Transit coverage

Notice that the Western Europe ratio more than doubles the US ratio

12

0





World Regions

m/1

000

Pers

ons

Middle East(690.9)


OtherAsian(1327.23)

Ocean A

(3204.86)

Africa

(3940.63)

1000

2000

3000

4000

Total Length of Public Transport Lines per 1000 People



Parking supply in downtown

Again the U.S. leads clearly over Western Europe

13

0

WesternEurope(270)




Spac

es/1

000

Jobs

Middle East(790.93)


OtherAsian(91.25)

Ocean A

(505.24)

Africa

(195.57)

200

400

600

800

Parking Spaces per 1000 CBD Jobs

World RegionsFigure by MIT OCW, adapted from the UITP Millennium Cities Database.

14

0



NorthAmerica(85.83)


World Regions

Middle East(72.93)


OtherAsian(31.95)

Ocean A

(79.12)

Africa

(32.88)

20

40

60

80

* Percentage of Motorised Private Modes Over all Trips


The role of the automobile

Again, this should come as no surprise

Perc

ent



Economic efficiency

� The arguments go well beyond environmental concerns, quality of life issues, moral grounds…

� Clear economic consequences

15

0

WesternEurope(8.29)


NorthAmerica(12.44)


Middle East(9.27)

Asian Affluent(5.4)

OtherAsian(13.65)

Ocean A

(13.46)

Africa

(21.68)

5

10

15

20

25

Total Passenger Transport Cost as Percentage of Metropolitan GDP

World Regions

Perc

ent



The cost of a balanced system

Economic sustainability 16

0,00 10 20 30

Modal Choice (% Public Transport - Cycling - Walking)

40 50 60 70 80 90

4,0

U.S.A.8,0

12,0

Tran

spor

t Cos

t (%

GD

P)

16,0

20,0

Developed Cities

Modal Choice (% Public Transport + Cycling + Walking) vs Transport Cost (% GDP)

Western Europe



CO emissions per capita

The Environmental cost

0

WesternEurope(70.9)




World Regions

Kg/

Pers

on

Middle East(181.4)


OtherAsian(53)

Ocean A

(146.19)

Africa

(73.46)

40

80

120

160

200

* Emissions of CO per Capita

17Figure by MIT OCW, adapted from the UITP Millennium Cities Database.


The high price of road fatalities

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Modal Choice (% Public Transport - Cycling - Walking)

00 10 20 30

50

Fata

litie

s (P

er M

illio

n In

habi

tant

s)

U.S.A.

40 50 60 70 80 90

100

150

200

250

Modal Choice (% Public Transport + Cycling + Walking) vs Fatalities

Western Europe

Developed Cities



A congestion index

� In spite of the differences, a similar congestion ratio

� One reason the higher trip length in the States

� Is traffic like an expanding gas?

19

0







OtherAsian(1684813.84)

Ocean A

(938709.62)

Africa

(849220.9)

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000 Total Private Passenger Vehicle Kilometers per Kilometer of Road

World Regions

V.km

/km



Some Lessons by the Database Authors

1. Transit is the least cost option when densityis higher than 20 people per hectare

2. Growth and income does not necessarilyimply sprawl and automobile reliance

3. In fact, sharp growth in automobile traffic incities in developing countries maycompromise economic development

4. In sprawling affluent cities where the autodominates, speeds may be high but so arethe total travel times ( while no-carhouseholds may lack accessibility)

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Lessons by the Database Authors

5. Car ownership while usually has an impacton transit ridership, may be balancedthrough mobility management policies

6. Parking policies are critical to curb the autoand provide transit priority

7. Transit supply and demand are clearlycorrelated

8. Rail modes are more attractive and competitive, and most cost efficient inmajor cities

9. The ratio of transit to automobile speed ismost critical to explain modal split

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Lessons by the Database Authors

10. Low transit fares, while necessary in socialterms, are not critical to capture motorists

11. Sustainable policy = urban planning +traffic and parking controls + publictransport with traffic priority

12. In developing countries, transit supplyshortage and high operator profits

See “Millennium Cities Database for Sustainable Mobility. Analyses and Recommendations”by Jean Vivier, UITP

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Our suggestions and lessons

� Main issue is quality of life � Not auto vs. transit, rather auto versus

transit + non-motorized trips � The virtuous cycle: low fares � higher

ridership � higher frequencies � Accessibility varies greatly within a

metropolitan area (walk trips in Beacon Hill and auto trips in Framingham)

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Our suggestions and lessons

� Cost based on local GDP obscures the fact that some costs are local (ie driver wages) with multiplier effects, while others areinternational (ie. fuel, automobiles…)

� If you substract the transportations costs from the average GDP in a city, you may findthat many such cities have a higher GDP thanequivalent US cities

� Metropolitan area as an archipelago of transport arrangements

� Let us continue the discussion on how to deal with the “ocean of red circles”

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A few tips…

� Frustration while interpreting someone elsedata (or sometimes even yours)

� Work in pairs with complementary skills � We are dealing with a complex problem (with

social, economic and technical issues), simplehypotheses will not suffice (no magic bullets)

� Simple linear regression or multi-regression? � “We love our cars in the US” (and in Rome,

Nairobi, New Delhi, Copenhagen ..) � The myth about income and transit use � Do work with this database in the future

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� Good luck and enjoy…

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urban transportation planning – fall 2006 assignment no 4 · urban transportation planning –...

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