urban transportation, energy use and carbon emissions in

Urban Transportation, Energy Use and Urban Transportation, Energy Use and Carbon Emissions in Selected Asian CitiesCarbon Emissions in Selected Asian Cities

Ram M. ShresthaAsian Institute of Technology

Thailand

[email protected]

International Symposium on Urban Energy and Carbon Management4 February 2008, AIT, Thailand

2

Urbanization in AsiaUrbanization in Asia

Asian Megacities doubling their population every 15 to 20 years.London took 130 years to grow from 1 to 8 million; Bangkok took 45 years, Dhaka 37 years and Seoul only 25 yearsBy 2020, two-thirds of ASEAN urban population will live in only five Mega-Urban-Regions (MURs):

Source http://www.citymayors.com/society/asian_cities.html

By 2015, Asia would have:• 153 out of 358 cities (with more than one million) in the

world• 15 out of 27 Megacities (with more than 10 million)- in the

world

http://www.citymayors.com/society/asian_cities.html

3

11 Largest cities of Asia and their population 11 Largest cities of Asia and their population in 2006 and 2020in 2006 and 2020

Rank City/Urban area Country Population in 2006 (millions)*

Population in 2020

(millions)**

1 Tokyo Japan 35.53 37.28

2 Mumbai India 18.84 25.97

3 Delhi India 16.00 25.83

4 Calcutta India 14.57 18.54

5 Jakarta Indonesia 13.67 20.77

6 Dhaka Bangladesh 13.09 22.04

7 Shanghai China 12.63 12.63

8 Karachi Pakistan 12.20 18.94

9 Osaka, Kobe Japan 11.32 11.53

10 Beijing China 10.85 11.15

11 Metro Manila Philippines 10.80 13.40

*http://www.citymayors.com/statistics/urban_2006_1.html** http://www.citymayors.com/statistics/urban_2020_1.html

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Out of 20, 11 Asian Cities has highest population now and 2020 as well. Population will be increased in most of developing counties' cities like Mumbay, Delhi, Calcutta, Jakarta, Dhaka, Karachi, Manila comparing with others like Shanghai, Beijing Osaka or Tokyo . Dhaka and Jakarta

http://www.citymayors.com/statistics/urban_2006_1.html

4

Motorization in AsiaMotorization in Asia (Passenger Vehicle Ownership per 1,000 Population (1980, 2002 an(Passenger Vehicle Ownership per 1,000 Population (1980, 2002 and 2020)d 2020)

Source : APREC Analysis 2006

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The comparison between economy and city For the cities in Asia, passenger vehicle ownership per 1,000 population has reached a higher level than that of the economy Average -exception for Tokyo, cause of higher income in cities In 2002 the ratio of vehicle ownership per 1,000 population for Beijing and Shanghai was four times and two times higher than that of average for China respectively. This ratio for Jakarta was nine times higher than that of Indonesia as a whole in 2002. Shanghai’s passenger vehicle stocks per 1,000 population was almost half that of Beijing in 2002 due to the Shanghai’s higher cost of passenger vehicle ownership resulting from a mandatory requirement to purchase a license plate through an auction. In Tokyo and Hong Kong, China, the ratio of passenger vehicle stocks per 1,000 population in 2002 were both low relative to their high incomes. This is because both Tokyo and Hong Kong, China have developed a rail/subway network which connects the city centre with residential suburbs.

5

Effect of the US$ 2500 Tata Nano Effect of the US$ 2500 Tata Nano ““PeoplePeople’’s Cars Car””??

Effects of CO2 reduction targets in urban passenger transport sector

during 2006-2030: Case of 3 cities in Asia

Beijing Delhi

Jakarta

7

Scenario description

BAU: vehicle stock projection based on GPD and population growth.

Base case: Vehicle mix based on least cost vehicular choice model. Modal shift limited to road transport options. (2006-2030)

ET15: Emission reduction target fixed at 15% from the Base case (2006-2030)

8

Number of vehicles per 1000 people in Beijing

Buses Cars

2 Wheelers

Beijing

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Num

ber o

f bus

es/1

000

pers

on BAUBase CaseET15%

Beijing

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Num

ber o

f car

s/10

00 p

erso

n BAUBase CaseET15%

Beijing

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Num

ber o

f 2w

heel

ers/

1000

per

son

BAUBase CaseET15%

Car ownership is assumed to be 150 per 1000 persons by 2030 in the base case- Bus ownership increases, 2 wheeler ownership decreases in the base case

9

Number of vehicles per 1000 people in Jakarta

Buses Cars

2 Wheelers

Jakarta

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Num

ber o

f bus

es/1

000

pers


Jakarta

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Num

ber o

f car

s/10

00 p

erso

n BAUBase CaseET15%

Jakarta

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Num

ber o

f 2w

heel

ers/

1000

per

son

BAUBase CaseET15%

Car ownership is assumed to be 110 per 1000 persons by 2030 in the base case- Bus ownership increases, 2 wheeler ownership decreases

10

Number of vehicles per 1000 people in Delhi

Buses Cars

2 Wheelers

Delhi

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Num

ber o

f bus

es/1

000

pers


Delhi

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Num

ber o

f car

s/10

00 p

erso

n

BAUBase CaseET15%

Delhi

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Num

ber o

f 2w

heel

ers/

1000

per

son

BAUBase CaseET15%

• Car ownership is assumed to be 150 per 1000 persons by 2030 in the base case

• Bus ownership increases, 2 wheeler ownership decreases

11

Total Energy Requirement in different scenarios

Jakarta

020406080

100120140160180200

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Req

uire

men

t, m

illion

GJ

BAUBasecaseET15

Delhi

0

50

100

150

200

250

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Req

uire

men

t, m

illion

GJ

BAUBasecaseET15

Beijing

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Req

uire

men

t, m

illion

GJ

BAUBasecaseET15

• Lower energy requirement in the base case and emission reduction case

12

CO2 emission in 3 cities

Beijing

0

1000

20003000

4000

5000

60007000

8000

9000

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO

2 em

issi

onkt

on

BAUBasecaseET15

Jakarta

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO

2 em

issi

onkt

on

BAUBasecaseET15

Delhi

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO

2 em

issi

onkt

on

BAUBasecaseET15

• In 2030, CO2 emission in the base case and ET15 are 1.57 and 1.33 times the 2006 CO2 emission in Beijing;

• Corresponding figures are 3.49 and 3.04 in Jakarta; and 3.85 and 3.37 in Delhi

13

CO2 emission growth in 3 cities

Beijing

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

2

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO

2 em

issi

on, i

ndex

(200

6 =

1) BAUBasecaseET15

Jakarta

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO

2 em

issi

on, i

ndex

(200

6 =

1) BAUBasecaseET15

Delhi

0

0.5

11.5

2

2.5

33.5

4

4.5

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO

2 em

issi

on, i

ndex

(200

6 =

1) BAUBasecaseET15

14

Average incremental CO2 abatement cost

114

246

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

ET5 ET10 ET15

US $

per

ton

CO2

Abatement costs substantially higher at ET10 and ET15 in Jakarta and nearly same in ET5 and ET10 in Delhi 29

160

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

ET5 ET10 ET15

US $

per

ton

CO2

Jakarta

Delhi

Beijing

16

Fuel Mix in Beijing in different scenarios

Fuel Mix under Base Case in Beijing

0102030405060708090

100

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Milli

on G

J

LPG Gasoline ElectricityDiesel Biodiesel CNGHydrogen

Fuel Mix under ET15 in Beijing

01020304050

60708090

100

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Milli

on G

J

LPG Gasoline ElectricityDiesel Biodiesel CNGHydrogen

Emission reduction target of 15% would • reduce the share of LPG,CNG and diesel• increases the share of biodiesel run vehicles • Increases gasoline (hybrid vehicles)• Increases hydrogen fuel cell run vehicles

17

CO2 emission reduction by vehicle type in Beijing

CO2 reduction in ET15 in Beijing

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO

2, k

ton

Car BusTaxi MRT2-w heeler

Emission reduction would occur due to - cars (hybrid, fuel cell), taxi (hybrid, CNG) and buses (biodiesel).

18

Effects on emission of local pollutants under CO2 emission target in Beijing

Increase in Pollutants under ET15 in Beijing

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

kton

SO2


0

5

10

15

20

25

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

kton

CO


0

1

1

2

2

3

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

kton

PM10


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

kton

NOx

CO2 reduction target would increases local pollutants due to- increased use of biodiesel and hybrid vehicles

19

Role of climate friendly technologies in CO2 reduction scenario in Beijing

Bus Type under ET15 in Beijing

-2500-2000-1500-1000-500

0500

1000150020002500

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Milli

on v

-km

Bus Gasoline Bus Diesel Bus CNGBus LPG Bus Bio-diesel Bus Electricity

Car Type under ET15 in Beijing

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Milli

on v

-km

Car Gasoline Car Diesel Car CNGCar LPG Car Hybrid Car Fuel CellCar Bio-diesel

Taxi Type under ET15 in Beijing

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Milli

on v

-km

Taxi Hybrid Taxi Gasoline Taxi DieselTaxi CNG Taxi LPG Taxi Bio-diesel

2 wheeler under ET15 in Beijing

-500-400-300-200-100

0100200300400500

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Milli

on v

-km

Motorcycle Fuel CellMotorcycle Gasoline

Biodiesel buses replace LPG and diesel buses; hybrid and fuel cell cars replace gasoline and LPG cars; hybrid and CNG taxies replace LPG taxi; fuel cell 2 wheelers replace gasoline 2 wheelers

Jakarta

21

Fuel Mix in Jakarta in different scenarios

Fuel Mix under Base Case in Jakarta

020406080

100120140160180200

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Milli

on G

J

LPG GasolineDiesel BiodieselCNG Electricity

Fuel Mix under ET15 in Jakarta

020406080

100

120140160180200

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030M

illion

GJ

LPG GasolineDiesel BiodieselCNG Electricity

Emission reduction would require- reduction of LPG use- increase in biodiesel use

22

CO2 emission reduction by vehicle type in Jakarta

CO2 reduction in ET15 in Jakarta

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO

2, k

ton

Bus Car

2 Wheeler Taxi

CO2 reduction would occur mainly due to increased use of biodiesel buses, fuel cell cars and 2 wheelers, and hybrid taxis.

23

Effects on emission of local pollutants under CO2 reduction target in Jakarta

Increase in Pollutants under ET15 in Jakarta

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

1

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

kton

SO2


-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

kton

CO


-1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

kton

PM10


-3

-2

-2

-1

-1

0

1

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

kton

NOx

Emission reduction target might increase some local pollutants emission and decrease emission of the others.

24

Role of climate friendly technologies in CO2 reduction scenario in Jakarta

Changes in Bus Types under ET15 in Jakarta

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Milli

on v

-km

Bus Gasoline Bus Diesel Bus CNGBus LPG Bus Bio-diesel Bus Electricity

Changes in Car Types under ET15 in Jakarta

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Milli

on v

-km


Changes in Taxi under ET15 in Jakarta

-2500-2000-1500-1000-500

0500

1000150020002500

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Milli

on v

-km

Taxi Gasoline Taxi Diesel Taxi CNGTaxi LPG Taxi Hybrid Taxi Bio-dieselTaxi Electricity

Changes in 2 wheeler under ET15 in Jakarta

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Milli

on v

-km

Motorcycle Fuel CellMotorcycle Gasoline

Biodiesel buses would replace LPG and diesel buses; fuel cell cars would replace LPG cars; hybrid taxis would replace LPG and gasolien taxis; and fuel cell 2 wheelers would replace gasoline 2 wheelers.

26

Fuel Mix in Delhi in different scenarios

Fuel Mix under Base Case in Delhi

020406080

100120140160180200

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Milli

on G

J

LPG Gasoline DieselBiodiesel CNG ElectricityHydrogen

Fuel Mix under ET15 in Delhi

0

50

100

150

200

250

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030M

illion

GJ

Biodiesel Electricity DieselCNG Hydrogen LPGGasoline

CO2 emission reduction would require reduced use of LPG vehicles, and increased use of biodiesel vehicles

27

CO2 emission reduction by vehicle type in Delhi

CO2 reduction in ET15 from BC in Delhi

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO

2, k

ton

Bus CarTaxi 2-w heeler3-Wheeler

CO2 emission reduction would occur mainly due to the increased use of biodiesel buses, biodiesel cars, biodiesel and CNG taxis, and fuel cell motorcycles.

28

Role of climate friendly technologies in CO2 reduction scenario in Delhi

Changes in Car Types under ET15 in Delhi

-40000

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Milli

on v

-km


Changes in Taxi under ET15 in Delhi

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Milli

on v

-km

Taxi Gasoline Taxi Diesel Taxi CNGTaxi LPG Taxi Hybrid Taxi Bio-diesel

Changes in 2 wheeler under ET15 in Delhi

-1000-500

0500

10001500

20002500

30003500

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030M

illion

v-k

m

Motorcycle Fuel CellMotorcycle 4SMotorcycle 2S

Biodiesel buses replace LPG buses; biodiesel cars would replace LPG cars; CNG and biodiesel taxies would replace LPG taxis; and fuel cell motorcycles would replace gasoline motorcycles

Changes in Bus Types under ET15 in Delhi

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Milli

on v

-km

Bus Diesel Bus CNG Bus LPG Bus Bio diesel

29

Concluding Remarks

Passenger kilometer travel demand projection a major taskEmerging technologies and the fuels (fuel cells, hybrid vehicles, biofuels) would play important role in emission reduction.Average incremental abatement cost high at above 5% emission reduction target.The role of Mass Rapid Transport System need to assessed

Thank you!

urban transportation, energy use and carbon emissions in

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