urban transport enpdf.savills.asia/.../spotlight/urbantransport-en.pdf · 2017-04-24 · without...
TRANSCRIPT
URBAN TRANSPORT
savills.com.vn
Population density in Ha Noi is 32% higher than in HCMC, where a one-way commute takes approximately 30 minutes, making it the least inefficient among its ASEAN peers. A Hanoi commute is worse, taking 45 minutes equiva-lent to Shanghai but better than Jakarta and Bangkok.
Chart 1: Land dedicated to transport
Spotlight | Urban Transport
02
1. TRAFFIC
Chart 2: Traffic inefficiency
trong economic growth and continued urbanisation since the mid-1990s has accelerated demand for roads in HCMC and Hanoi. Present allocations are under 9 percent of the urban area
that is similar to Jakarta and Bangkok, but far lower than Shanghai, Singapore, Seoul and Tokyo. Without mass public transport then road area allocation is a concern.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Jakarta Taipei Bangkok HCMC Ha Noi Shanghai Singapore Seoul Tokyo0%
5%
10%
15%
20%Road area (% build-up area)-LHS Population density (pp/km2)-RHS
050100150200250300350400
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
One-way traffic time (minutes)-LHS Traffic inefficiency index-RHS
Source: Numbeo.com, 2016
Source: Huynh & Jose, 2016; Demographia, 2016HCMC & Ha NoiRoad allocation
9% <
03
2017
2. MOTORIZATION
Chart 3: Passenger car sales
Chart 4: Car ownership and parking code
Source: VAMA, 2016
Source: ADB, 2011
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
he motorcycle is easily the most dominant means of transport in Vietnam, averaging one per two people. Motorcycles create less congestion than cars, however due to decreased import duties within ASEAN and increased incomes, car ownership is becoming more common. In the past five years, car
sales grew 35% pa and are expected to triple by 2025.
Bangkok
BeijingDhaka
Guangzhou
HanoiHCMC
HongkongJakarta
KLManila
Seoul
Singapore
Teipei
Tokyo
0
1
2
100 200 300 400
Park
ing
requ
irem
ent i
n re
side
ntia
l bui
ldin
gs
(slo
ts/1
00m
2 )
Car ownership (per 1,000 pp)
>> PARKING SPACEMOTORCYCLES OCCUPY ROAD
Car
Despite a relatively low income per capita, parking fees in the centres of HCMC and Ha Noi are approach-ing those of Singapore, Seoul and Shanghai, while higher than Jakarta, Manila and Bangkok. There is presently an undersupply. Vietnam parking construction code is higher than regional developed countries but lower than developing counterparts.Both HCMC and Ha Noi are currently among the upper-left cities (Chart 5), with expensive office space but
inexpensive parking.
Spotlight | Urban Transport
04
3. PARKING
Chart 5: Office and parking rent
Chart 6: Office and parking rent
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
Source: ADB (2011) and Savills Research & Consultancy
JakartaBangalore
Johannesburg
LimaDallas
Mexico City
The HagueDenvesMontreal
BeijingAthens
Las vegasVancouver
HonoluluHamburg
ChicagoVienna Copenhagen
MiamiShanghai
Calgary
DelhiSingapore
Washington DCToronto
MunichZurich
Sydney
Amsterdam
MumbaiAbu Dhabi
DubaiParis
Milan New York Midtown
Moscow
Tokyo
London City
London West End
Hong Kong
HCMC
Ha Noi
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
10 20 30 40 50 60
Prim
e of
fice
rent
per
mon
th p
er m
2 ($)
CBD Parking price per month per m2 ($)
0
200
400
600
800
05
2017
4. PUBLIC TRANSPORT
Chart 8: Public transport mode
CMC (2%) and Ha Noi (10%) have the lowest regional public transportation shares and are also emerging cities without mass transport rail.
Bangkok was similar the 1990s, plagued by routine congestion, a downtown travelling speed of 10km/h and worsening air pollution. The first metro line was completed by Public-Private Partnership (PPP) in 1999 but suffered from low initial ridership. However, patronage increased from 25%, to 60% by 2010 and to 100% by 2015.
From 2011-2015, Government capital accounted for 55% of transportation infrastructure investment, while from 2016-2020, Government capital will account for just 20 percent. As the Government’s budget tightens, Build-Transfer (BT) projects with land will become more common.
Note: * expected by 2020Source: Ely, 2012; and adapted from various sources
Chart 7: Investment in transportation
Source: Ely, 2012; and adapted from various sources
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011-2015 2016-2020
PPP
Public
BOT BT
Public transport mode
HCMC (2%)Ha Noi (10%)
lowest regional
& 0
10
20
30
40
Jakarta* Taipei Bangkok HCMC* Ha Noi* Shanghai Singapore Seoul Tokyo0%
20%
40%
60%
80%Puclic transportation share (%)-LHS Rail (km/mill pp)-RHS
HOANKIEM
LONG BIEN
DONG ANH
GIA LAM
BA DINH
HOANG MAI
THANH TRI
DONG DA
THANH XUAN
HAI BA TRUNG
CAU GIAY
TU LIEM
HA DONG
HOAI DUC
QUOC OAI
Chương Mỹ
DAN PHUONG
ME LINH
TAY HO
1
1
2
2
2
4
4
3
3
8
8
7 6
6
5
2A
2A
Spotlight | Urban Transport
06
oth cities have ambitious transport infrastructure programs. HCMC has planned 5 elevated roads of approxi-mately 71km and 5 metro lines of 106km, with the total expected investment exceeding US$20 billion. Similarly, Ha Noi has planned 8 metro lines of 260km and 6 elevated roads.Transit-oriented development (TOD) advocates property development along mass transit, especially urban railways. It is focused within a half-mile or walking distance of transit stations and typically comprises both
commercial and residential, including housing, office, retail and parking. A critical benefit is that infrastructure can be planned and built along the network, significantly reducing its cost.
5. TRANSIT- ORIENTEDDEVELOPMENT
Traffic congestion point
Metro line
HA NOI
1
D12
THU DUC
D2
D1D3
D10
D11
D6
D8
D5
D4
D7
TAN BINH
TAN PHU
NHA BE
BINH THANH
Ben ThanhMarket
Binh TrieuBridge
SaigonBridge
Phu MyBridge
LONG AN
BINH DUONG
GO VAP
BINH TAN
BINH CHANH
Thu ThiemTunnel
PHUNHUAN
1
3
4
2
6
5
07
2017
Traffic congestion point
Elevated Road
Metro line
HO CHI MINH CITY
1
The first metro line is to be fully operational by 2020 and expected to shift development focus. Living further from the city will become more appealing and cost effective and shift the focus of investors away from the centre. Properties near transit hubs can have significant capital appreciation: 10% in China and Thailand, and 32% in Hong Kong. The same pattern will arise in Viet Nam.
This report is for general informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior consent. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research.
Disclaimer:
Please contact us for further information :
Troy GriffithsDeputy Managing DirectorTel: +84 (0) 933 276 663Email: [email protected]
Do Thu HangHead of Research - Ha NoiTel: +84 (0) 912 000 530Email: [email protected]
Pham Van DaiHead of Research - HCMCTel: +84 (0) 933 276 663Email: [email protected]