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Urban energy use and CO2 emissions of Urban energy use and CO2 emissions of
Cities in ChinaCities in China
Shobhakar Dhakal, Ph.D.
Executive Director, Global Carbon Project (GCP)
GCP Tsukuba International Project Office
c/o National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Onogawa 16-2, Tsukuba, Japan 305 8506
E-mail: [email protected]
Estimations or urban energy/CO2 at global
and city scale depends on definitions
1. What is urban and a city (physical definition)?
– How urban definition varies in the world?
– Does {city} means {urban}?– Does {city} means {urban}?
– Where are their physical boundaries?
2. How we define responsibility?
– Physical (territorial) or functional (non-territorial)
3. How energy use or carbon emission is accounted for that responsibility?
National definitions of “urban”
Criterion Countries
Adminis trative 83E conomic 1P opulation s ize 57P opulation s ize 57Urban characteris tic 4Any combination 48
E ntire population 6No urban population 3Unclear definition 1No definition 25Total 228
Source: Thomas Buettner, UN Population Division
Incomparable definitions of “urban” determine
global urban population numbers
• India classifies under 5,000 inhabitant settlements as rural villages
• 17.5% of Egypt's population lived in settlements with 10,000 to 20,000 inhabitants which were not classified as urban (1996)
• In Sweden, urban (tätort) refers to settlements of more than 200 inhabitants with continuous built-up area that houses are not more than 200 meters apart when discounting rivers, parks, roads, etc
• What would be world’s urban population data if we apply Swedish definition to India and China?
• Lower ends of “urban” definition swings urbanization levels drastically
What is Beijing City?Mark R. Montgomery
Science 319, 761 (2008);
DOI: 10.1126/science.1153012
Urban population in 2000 census is further different from any of these boundaries
China
• China’s global contributions
– 16 % of the global primary energy use in 2006 (WEO 2008)
– 20% to global energy-related CO2 emissions (WEO 2008)
– Out of global addition of 12.6 GtCO2 (energy-related) in 1996-2030, China alone will contribute half (WEO 2008)1996-2030, China alone will contribute half (WEO 2008)
– 16.8 % of global urban population (UN, 2007)
• Urbanization in China will increase further
– 60% (880 million) by 2030 from 41 % (545 million) in 2005. MGI (2008) projects it to one billion for 2030
• 90% of GDP by 2025 from urban economy (MGI, 2008)
City energy use in China, 2006City energy use in China, 2006
Region
Share of city
primary energy
demand in
regional total
Ratio of city per-
capita primary
energy demand
to regional
average Urbanisation rate
US 80% 0.99 81%
European Union 69% 0.94 73% European Union 69% 0.94 73%
Australia and New
Zealand
78% 0.88 88%
China 75% 1.82 41%
Source: WEO 2008; Dhakal 2008
•For commercial energy use only, the urban contribution would be 84% in 2006
•Urban primary energy use percapita in China is 1.8 times of national average
•Urban to rural commercial primary energy use ratio is 6.8
• In China such gap will be narrower by 2030 but rising urbanization increase energy use and carbon emissions
83% in 2030
Urban’s contribution to energy related
CO2 emissions of China
• Large volume: 4.8 Gt in 2006
– More than whole of Europe (4.06 Gt)
• Global importance: 24% of global urban CO2 emission from • Global importance: 24% of global urban CO2 emission from
energy use
• Local importance: 85% of total energy related CO2 emissions
of China
WEO, 2008; Dhakal, 2008
Urban vs city in China
• 656 cities and 19,369 towns in China (2006)
makes about 90% of population
• Urban population is 41% in 2005
• City is an administrative unit- does not mean • City is an administrative unit- does not mean
urban always
Urban population definition 1999
1
2
3
4
Urban area designation
Population category
Place of household registration4
5
6
Jianfa Shen
POPULATION, SPACE AND PLACE
Popul. Space Place 11, 381–400 (2005)
Place of household registration
Mobility of people
Enormous influence of China’s largest and most
important 35 cities
• Economic hotspots• Flash points for synergy and conflicts between economy, energy and CO2
List of 35 most important cities that are mentioned in national plan: Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Hohhot, Shenyang,
Dalian, Changchun, Harbin, Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Hefei, Fuzhou, Xiamen, Nanchang, Jinan, Qingdao, Zhengzhou,
Wuhan, Changsha, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanning, Haikou, Chongqing, Chengdu, Guiyang, Kunming, Xi'an, Lanzhou, Xining, Yinchuan,
and Urumqi. Source: Dhakal (2008)
Enormous influence of China’s largest and most
important 35 cities
Source: Dhakal (2008)
Xiamen
Urumqi
Guiyang
Taiyuan
Shanghai
Hohhot
Guangzhou
Yinchuan
160,000
200,000
240,000
280,000
Per
Cap
ita E
nerg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n i
n M
J P
er
Pers
on
Varying energy-economy pathways within
China’s cities
High energy pathway: Largely on
middle and western China with
energy intensive industries and
climatically cooler
Nanjing
Chongquin
Fuzhou
Xining
Ningbo
Xian
Guangzhou
Beijing
China
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000
Per Capita Gross Regional Product in US$
Per
Cap
ita E
nerg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n i
n M
J P
er
Pers
on
Source: Dhakal (2008)
Low energy pathway: Cities in
eastern part of the country with
strong presence of service
industries, close to coast and
warmer climate
Four provincial cities
Basic indicators of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing, 2006
City Beijing Shanghai Tianjin Chongqing Area, Sq Km 16,410 6,340 11,920 82,400 Resident population, million 15.81 18.15 10.75 2,808 Registered population, million 11.98 13.68 9.49 3,199 Urban share in resident population (%) 84% 89% 76% 47% Gross regional product, billion US$ 98.7 130.0 54.7 43.8 Gross regional product, billion US$ 98.7 130.0 54.7 43.8 Total energy use, thousand TJ a 1,332 2,480 1,271 1,160 Total energy related CO2 emissions, million tons a
142.10 228.74 117.61 103.97
a Total energy means sum of TFC, distribution/transmission losses and conversion losses
Source: Dhakal (2008)
Note the difference between resident and registered population
Per capita CO2 emissions
12
16
20
Pe
r c
ap
ita
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
, to
ns
/re
gis
tere
d p
op
ula
tio
n Beijing
Chongqing
Shanghai
Tianjin
5 times of 1985
2.6 times of 1985
• Rapidly rising energy use and CO2 emissions
0
4
8
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
Pe
r c
ap
ita
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
, to
ns
/re
gis
tere
d p
op
ula
tio
n
Based on permanent registered population Dhakal(2008)
• Diverging trends within cities
Per capita energy and CO2
1.9
2.7
2.2
0.8
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Pri
mary
en
erg
y d
em
an
d, in
TO
E/p
ers
on
9.0
12.6
10.9
3.7
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
CO
2 e
mis
sio
n f
rom
en
erg
y u
se, in
To
ns/p
ers
on
Per capita final energy consumption, 2006 Per capita CO2 emissions, 2006
Based on permanent resident population source: Dhakal(2008)
0.0
0.5
Beijing Shanghai Tianjin Chongquin
Pri
mary
en
erg
y d
em
an
d, in
TO
E/p
ers
on
0.0
2.0
Beijing Shanghai Tianjin Chongquin
CO
2 e
mis
sio
n f
rom
en
erg
y u
se, in
To
ns/p
ers
on
Year 2003
Tokyo Metropolis: 5.9 tons CO2/person (pop12.06 mn) for 2003
New York State: 10.9 tons CO2/person (pop 18.95 mn) for 2003
New York City: 7.1 tons/CO2 (pop 8.1 mn) for 2006 (PLANYC)
Greater London: 6.95 tons CO2/person (pop 7.3 mn) for 2003
Bangkok City: 6 tons CO2/person (electricity and transport only, 2005)
Source: TMG , PLANYC, BMA
Common trends in CO2
contribution• Sectoral CO2 transition
– Decreasing share of industry sector (except Tianjin)
– Rising share of commercial and transports sectors
– Largely unchanged share of residential sector
• Fuel’s CO2 transition
– Declining share of direct coal burning
– Rising share of electricity and oil
– Smaller role of natural gas then expected in Shanghai and
Tianjin
Drivers in cities- impacts of carbon intensity, energy
intensity, income and population effects
19.111.7 6.9
49.8
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
Ch
an
ge i
n C
O2 e
mis
sio
ns in
de
xed
to
1
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
To
tal
CO
2 C
han
ges,
mn
To
ns
Carbon Intensity effectEnergy Intensity effectEconomic effectPopulation effectCO2 changes
Beijing
36.321.8
31.3
93.6
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Ch
an
ge
in
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns in
dexed
to
1
60
120
180
240
300
360
420
To
tal
CO
2 c
han
ges,
mn
To
ns
Carbon Intensity effectEnergy Intensity effectEconomic effectPopulation effectCO2 Changes
Shanghai
•Economic growth played major role in
increasing CO2 emissions
•Energy intensity played key role in
dampening CO2 emissions6.9
-8.00
1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2006
0
21.8
-1.50
1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2006
0
-7.23 -20.87
28.00
26.0
67.5
48.9
1.2-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
1985-1995 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2006
Ch
an
ge in
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns i
nd
ex
ed
to
1
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
To
tal
CO
2 C
han
ges,
mn
To
ns
Carbon Intensity effectEnergy Intensity effectEconomic effectPopulation effectCO2 Changes
24.216.2
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
1997-2000 2000-2006
Ch
an
ge in
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns in
dexed
to
1
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
To
tal
CO
2 C
han
ges,
mn
To
ns
Carbon Intensity effectEnergy Intensity effectEconomic effectPopulation effectCO2 Changes
Tianjin Chongqing
dampening CO2 emissions
•The influence of fuel shift in dampening
CO2 emissions is nominal
•The effect of demography seems important
in increasing CO2 emission in Beijing and
Shanghai if we include floating population
into consideration
Dhakal (2008)
Carbon intensity of economy and per capita trends
Beijing
(1985-2006)Tianjin
(1985-2006)
Chonqing
(1997-2006)
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
CO
2/G
RP
Kg
/Yu
an
(1978 c
on
sta
nt
pri
ce)
Shanghai
(1985-2006)
(1997-2006)
-
0.50
1.00
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00
CO2/capita, tons/person
CO
2/G
RP
Kg
/Yu
an
(1978 c
on
sta
nt
• Failed to perform well, in general (ideally should move towards origin over time)
• Large gain in carbon intensity of economy but this has slowed or even worsened in
recent years
• No way to reduce control per capita emission for now – but clearly great need to be
dampened the growth and in carbon intensity terms
Slowing/reducing growth of tertiary
sector in recent years
50%
60%
70%
80%
GR
P S
ha
re o
f T
ert
iary
se
cto
r 1980 1990 2000 2006
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Beijing Shanghai Tianjin Chongqing
GR
P S
ha
re o
f T
ert
iary
se
cto
r
Source: Dhakal (2008)
Beijing CO2 footprint, million t-CO2
• Share of CO2 in export
– 49.2% (1992)
– 29.8% (1997)
– 56.9% (2002)
• Change in total carbon emissions in Beijing
– 19.27% (1992-1997)
– 74.5% (1997-2002)60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
20
40
60
Inflow Outflow Inflow Outflow Inflow Outflow
1992 1997 2002
Indirect Coal Oil Gas Consumption Capital Formation Export
Kaneko, Dhakal (in progress please don’t quote)
Summary
• Cities and urban are clearly different and caution is needed in using terms
• Urban contributions for energy use and CO2 emissions in China are huge (Tier 1)
• China’s 35 largest cities have and will have enormous and disproportionate influence in shaping nation’s energy and disproportionate influence in shaping nation’s energy and carbon future. However, there are different pathways within too. (Tier 2)
• As seen from Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing analyses, a rapid energy transition taking place in cities- a low carbon path in evidently important to explore despite obvious difficulties (Tier 3)
Summary
• The fact that city’s footprints are high needs new considerations for allocating responsibility - the ultimate goal should be to lesson footprint of cities
• Policy implications– Urban energy contribution is large- it plays key role for key policy
objectives such as 20% EI reduction targeted, energy security, local pollution and climate changepollution and climate change
– This demands a coordinated response and guidelines from the central government to cities which are utterly lacking
– Big cities are key targets for improvements despite small population, they are front runners for any solutions-
– Economically backward urban regions are the ones with more energy consumption - deserve considerable attentions for the better technologies, more investment, and improved urban energy systems and infrastructure
– Slowing improvement in CO2 intensity in cities show challenges to 20% EI reduction target
China: 1999 Regulation of Statistics Classification on
Urban and Rural Population
• Spatial coverage: Selected areas of “designated cities and
towns” that include:
– High density districts (over 1500 persons/km2) of cities at
prefecture, quasi-provincial and provincial level
– Town proper and city proper of (i) counties under prefectures (ii)
county level cities, and (iii) low density districts of cities at county level cities, and (iii) low density districts of cities at
prefecture, quasi provincial and provincial level
– Selected villagers’ committees, residents’ committees and special
areas with population over 3000 persons of rural towns
• Population coverage: both agriculture and non-agriculture
population
• Mobility coverage: both resident hukou population and
resident non-hukou population staying over six months
Source: Dhakal (2008)
World primary energy use
2006 (Mtoe)Total: 11,547
OECD : 5,536Non-OECD: 6,011
China :1,898 India : 566
WEO, 2008China contributes 16 % to the global primary energy use in 2006
Incremental energy-related CO2 emissions by
country and region, 2006-2030 (ref scenario)
Total global CO2 additions in 2006-2030: 12.6 GtCO2, about half from China
2006 GigaTons CO2Total: 27.89
OECD : 12.79Non-OECD: 14.12
China contributes 20% to global energy-related CO2 emissions
WEO, 2008
Non-OECD: 14.12
China : 5.65 India : 1.25
World and city primary energy consumption in World and city primary energy consumption in
the Reference Scenariothe Reference Scenario
67%
73%
7903 Mtoe
12,374 Mtoe
81%
Source: WEO, 2008% are cities’ share in global
cumulative
increase in
2006-2030
come from
non-OECD
countries
Urban primary energy use in China
2006 2030
Mtoe
City as
a % of
nation
al Mtoe
City as
a % of
nation
al
Coal 1 059 87% 2 206 90%
Oil 271 77% 648 80%
Natural gas 40 81% 158 84%
Nuclear 12 84% 67 87%
Hydro
2.2%
Nuclear
0.8%
Natural gas
2.8%
Oil
19.0%
Biomass &
w aste
0.7%Other
renew ables
0.1%
Nuclear 12 84% 67 87%
Hydro 31 84% 76 87%
Biomass & waste 10 4% 37 16%
Other
renewables 2 45% 27 67%
Total 1 424 75% 3 220 83%
Electricity 161 80% 495 83%
Coal
74.3%
Primary fuel share in urban energy use in 2006
Reference Scenario
For commercial energy, urban’s share is much higher i.e. 84%
WEO 2008; Dhakal 2008
Energy-related CO2 emissions in cities by
region in the Reference Scenario
US cities :4.5 Gt, 23%
EU cities :2.7 Gt, 14%
China cities :4.8 Gt, 24%
19.8 Gt
30.8 Gt
71% 76%
19.8 Gt
WEO, 2008
89% of
cumulative
increase in
2006-2030
comes from
non-OECD
countries