Urban and Regional Planning Urban and Regional Planning

Analysis,Analysis, Dr. Pam PerlichDr. Pam Perlich

Patty Murphy, April 4, 2006Patty Murphy, April 4, 2006

Program ProgressProgram Progressin ain a

Political Political EnvironmentEnvironment

DemographicsDemographics ExpendituresExpenditures Economic Change Economic Change

and Revenueand Revenue Utah PoliticsUtah Politics

Table of Table of ContentsContents

DemographicsDemographics

Pictures courtesy of Jordan School District

2004 and 2005 Enrollment2004 and 2005 Enrollmentby Gradeby Grade

33,00034,00035,00036,00037,00038,00039,00040,00041,00042,00043,000

K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2005 2004

Start K in 2008

2003-03 and 2004-05 Enrollment 2003-03 and 2004-05 Enrollment ChangeChange

by Race/Ethnicityby Race/Ethnicity

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

White Hispanic Asian/ PI Black Am. Indian

2004-05 2003-04

Start K in 2008

2004-05 Enrollment 2004-05 Enrollment ChangeChange

by Race/Ethnicityby Race/Ethnicity

WhiteHispanic

Asian/PIBlack

Am. IndianStart K in 2008

Oct 1, 1990 and Oct 1, 2005Oct 1, 1990 and Oct 1, 2005Hispanic as Percentage of Total Hispanic as Percentage of Total

EnrollmentEnrollment

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

1990 2005

Oct 1, 1977 – Oct 1, 2005Oct 1, 1977 – Oct 1, 2005Hispanic and All-Other EnrollmentHispanic and All-Other Enrollment

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Hispanic All Other

Start K in 2008

Oct 1, 1993 – Oct 1, 2006Oct 1, 1993 – Oct 1, 2006Actual-Projected State Enrollment Actual-Projected State Enrollment

ErrorError

993

-1,067

244607

-766

-1,800

109

-563

1,348

325994

1,582

4,472

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000Start K in 2008

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Oct 1, 1993 – Oct 1, 2006Oct 1, 1993 – Oct 1, 2006Projected State Enrollment Percentage Projected State Enrollment Percentage

ErrorError

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Start K in 2008

Oct 1, 1993 – Oct 1, 2006Oct 1, 1993 – Oct 1, 2006Actual and Projected State Actual and Projected State

EnrollmentEnrollment

430,000440,000450,000460,000470,000480,000490,000500,000510,000520,000530,000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Actual Projection

Start K in 2008

Sources: USOE, Finance and Statistics, and the Common Data Committee.

1960-2005 Actual Enrollment;1960-2005 Actual Enrollment;2006-2015 Projected Enrollment2006-2015 Projected Enrollment

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000ProjectedActual

Sources: USOE, Finance and Statistics, the Common Data Committee, the Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget, and the Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Rising:Rising:

ExpenditureExpenditures:s:

Labor IntensiveLabor Intensive

Picture courtesy of Jordan School District

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

FY 2004 Expenditures per FY 2004 Expenditures per PupilPupilby Stateby State

US $9,660

Utah $6,142

Sources: USOE, and the US Bureau of the Census.

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

FY 1970 - FY 2005 FY 1970 - FY 2005 Utah K-12 Expenditures per Utah K-12 Expenditures per

PupilPupilInflation AdjustedInflation Adjusted

Sources: USOE, and the National Center for Education Statistics, US Department of Education.

Growth = Growth = Enrollment Change Enrollment Change

+ + InflationInflation

K-12 Education K-12 Education FundsFunds

FY 1976-FY 2007 WPU Value FY 1976-FY 2007 WPU Value and Enrollment Changeand Enrollment Change

Inflation AdjustedInflation Adjusted

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

WPU Value Inflation Adjusted Enrollment

FY 1996-FY 2007 Uniform School Funds per FY 1996-FY 2007 Uniform School Funds per PupilPupil

and Enrollment Annual Changeand Enrollment Annual ChangeInflation AdjustedInflation Adjusted

-5.00%

-3.00%

-1.00%

1.00%

3.00%

5.00%

7.00%

9.00%

FY1996 FY1997 FY1998 FY1999 FY2000 FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007

-5.00%

-3.00%

-1.00%

1.00%

3.00%

5.00%

7.00%

9.00%

USF per Pupil Inflation Adjusted Enrollment

State and Local State and Local Revenue: Revenue:

11.5% Increase11.5% Increase

Enrollment: 2.9% Enrollment: 2.9% IncreaseIncrease

FY 07FY 07

“We are making progress:

Things are getting worse at a slower

rate.”Patrick Ogden, State Associate Superintendent

At-Risk ProgramsAt-Risk Programs

5.4% Increase5.4% Increase

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

100 200 300 400 500

Students

Start K in 2008

Perfect Funding EquityPerfect Funding Equity$1 = 1 Student$1 = 1 Student

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

100 200 300 400 500

Students

Start K in 2008

Practically Perfect Funding DistributionPractically Perfect Funding DistributionGini Coefficient: .044Gini Coefficient: .044

Economic Change andEconomic Change andRevenueRevenue

Does education drive economic development, or

Does economic development drive

education?

1960-2015 Utah Personal 1960-2015 Utah Personal IncomeIncomein millionsin millions

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bureau of Economic Analysis, Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget, and the Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics.

Projected

1979-2015 Utah Personal Income 1979-2015 Utah Personal Income per Studentper Student

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

Source: Economy.com, Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget, and USOE, Finance and Statistics.

Projected

1970-2015 Total K-12 Education 1970-2015 Total K-12 Education Expenditures as a Percent of Personal Expenditures as a Percent of Personal

IncomeIncomeInflation AdjustedInflation Adjusted

5.0%

5.2%

5.4%

5.6%

5.8%

6.0%

6.2%

6.4%Projected

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics.

““Is what you are Is what you are doing effective?”doing effective?”

One PartyOne PartyTaxpayers AssociationTaxpayers Association

Charter Schools Charter Schools (“(“Private Schools for Free!”)Private Schools for Free!”)

Utah Politics:Utah Politics:

Parents for ChoiceParents for ChoicePrivate School SubsidiesPrivate School Subsidies$50,000 per legislative $50,000 per legislative

candidatecandidate

Utah Politics:Utah Politics:

Governor HuntsmanGovernor HuntsmanUtah State Office of EdUtah State Office of Ed

School DistrictsSchool DistrictsUtah Education Assoc, Utah Education Assoc,

PTSAPTSA

Utah Politics:Utah Politics:

Immigration Laws Immigration Laws Immigration PracticeImmigration Practice

Federal DeficitFederal DeficitOil and Utility PricesOil and Utility Prices

GlobalizationGlobalization

Other ImpactsOther Impacts

““Don’t confuse Don’t confuse actionaction with with

activityactivity….”….”

Patty MurphyPatty MurphyBudget AdministratorBudget Administrator

538-7577538-7577

patty.murphy@schools.utah.govpatty.murphy@schools.utah.gov

Questions?Questions?