uranium sector review exploration, development & production...uranium sector review exploration,...
TRANSCRIPT
Uranium Sector ReviewExploration, Development & ProductionJune Quarter 2011
Resource Capital Research
Resource Capital Research
Suite 1306183 Kent StreetSydney, NSW 2000
Tel: +612 9252 9405Fax: +612 9251 2859Email: [email protected]: www.rcresearch.com.au
Resource Capital Research ACN 111 622 489
Uranium Sector Review
Resource Analyst (Uranium): John Wilson
Resource Analyst: Dr Tony Parry
This report is subject to copyright and may not be redistributed without written permission from RCR. The information contained in thisreport is for use by US, Canadian and Australian residents only.Copies are available for purchase from RCR.
June Quarter 2011
27 June 2011
Resource Analyst: Murray Brooker
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 2
Contents Contents .............................................................................................................................. 2
Overview and Investment Comment ........................................................................................ 3
RCR June Quarter Featured Company Summary ........................................................................ 5
[Industry Background and Analysis ........................................................................................... ]
Comparative Charts ............................................................................................................... 7
Financial Data ..................................................................................................................... 10
Company Statistics .............................................................................................................. 10
Reserves, Resources and Historic Mineralisation ...................................................................... 11
Valuation and Performance Data ........................................................................................... 11
Exploration, Development and Production Companies
Alligator Energy Limited ............................................................................................. 12
Australian-American Mining Corp Limited...................................................................... 14
[Bannerman Resources Limited ...................................................................................... ]
[CanAlaska Uranium Limited .......................................................................................... ]
Deep Yellow Limited................................................................................................... 16
Energy and Minerals Australia Limited .......................................................................... 18
Energy Resources of Australia Limited* ........................................................................ 20
Extract Resources Limited .......................................................................................... 22
Greenland Minerals and Energy Limited ........................................................................ 24
[Paladin Energy Limited* ............................................................................................... ]
Peninsula Energy Limited............................................................................................ 26
[PepinNini Limited ........................................................................................................ ]
Toro Energy Limited................................................................................................... 28
Ur-Energy Inc ........................................................................................................... 30
[Uranium Price Fundamentals .................................................................................................. ]
Selected Uranium Sector Performance Charts ......................................................................... 32
Report Contributors ............................................................................................................. 34
Disclosure and Disclaimer ..................................................................................................... 35
* Indicates companies with detailed financial projections and valuation available.
[This is the Abridged Report version of the June Quarter RCR Uranium Sector Review. The purchase price of RCR’s June quarter Subscriber Reports (uranium and gold) is A$110 per report. The annual subscription rate for all RCR reports is A$440 – commodities covered may vary from quarter to quarter. Purchase details and research services for institutional investors can be found at www.rcresearch.com.au]
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 3
Overview and Investment Comment
Market performance summary table
Equity market performance In the past month, the uranium mining majors have had consistently negative share price performance, compounding declines of the past 3 months: Cameco (CCO) is down 13% (3 month performance -19%), Denison Mines (DML) is down 27% (3 month performance -37%), Uranium One (UUU) down 34% (3 month performance -42%), Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) down 16% (3 month performance -51%) and Paladin (PDN) down 25% (3 month performance -35%). ERA had the largest fall of the group, down 51% over 3 months and down 70% over 12 months. This reflects market and sector headwinds, in addition to a lengthy shutdown at Ranger 1H11 due to pit flooding, and delays to development projects. The Merrill Lynch Uranium Equity Index (a global basket of uranium equities) is down 19% over the past month, down 28% over 3 months and down 9% over the past 12 months. The sector has faced near term uranium price uncertainty since the crisis in Japan, as well as broader equity market concerns over slow US economic activity and ongoing sovereign debt issues in the advanced economies. Uranium price outlook The uranium spot price is US$54.25/lb. It plummeted mid March to US$49/lb on news of the partial meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan. Immediately prior to the earthquake and tsunami on 11 March, the spot price had been trading at US$67.75/lb, a 12 month high. In the aftermath of Japan, we expect the spot market to trade in the range of US$50-$60/lb, and it is expected to remain under downward pressure in the coming months. The fund implied price (FIP), an indicator of market price expectations looking out 3 to 6 months,
27 June 2011 Current 1 month 3 month 6 month 12 month
Price*
:US$/lb 54.25 -3 2 -12 33
Uranium Participation Corp :C$/Share 6.50 -2 -7 -19 12
317.62 -19 -28 -40 -9
Share Prices - Select Companies
:A$/share 4.11 -16 -51 -63 -70
:A$/share 2.45 -25 -35 -50 -33
:C$/Share 24.57 -13 -19 -39 6
:C$/Share 1.68 -27 -37 -48 29
:C$/Share 2.52 -34 -42 -46 19
Market Indices
World Markets (all sectors) Morgan Stanley World Index 1281.8 -4 -2 2 22
Currencies (compared to USD)
Australian dollar 1.05 -2% 2% 3% 20%
Canadian dollar 1.01 -1% -1% 2% 5%
Euro 1.43 0% 2% 8% 16%
Denison Mines
Uranium One
Performance (%)
Spot Uranium Price
Merrill Lynch Uranium Equity Index
Energy Resources of Australia
Paladin Energy
Cameco
The uranium spot price and leading sector equities have been under downward pressure… …driven by events in Japan, and also news of slower economic growth in the US and concerns over advanced countries debt levels. The Merrill Lynch Uranium Equity Index is down 19% over the past 1 month and down 28% over the past 3 months. The spot uranium price is US$54.25/lb - trading in a range of US$50-60/lb.
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 4
currently points to a spot price of US$48/lb, reflecting expectations of potential new supply to enter the market 2H11 from producers, funds and uncertainty over potential Japanese utility surplus dispositions. The long term contract uranium price is relatively stable, and is currently US$68.00/lb (31 May), down from US$73.00/lb (28 Feb). Despite the short term market impact of Japan, the long term uranium market fundamentals are considered sound with expected strong and increasing demand for new nuclear power reactors, especially from China, USA, Russia, Ukraine and India. While Germany has announced it will close all 17 of its nuclear power reactors by 2022 (with 7 to remain closed with effect from the March 2011 moratorium), many countries have publically stated their strong continued commitment to nuclear energy, most notably, and arguably of greatest influence, the US. While the impact of the Japanese quake is expected to impact discretionary inventory purchases, and further delays to new reactor construction programs are anticipated, the impact on the contract price is expected to be temporary, with the price remaining around the US$60-75/lb mark. This level should support development decisions at a number of advanced uranium development projects, particularly in Namibia, eg the large scale Husab project of Extract Resources (ASX:EXT). Emerging Trends: Rising REE prices are expected to support the economic potential of new REE projects and their associated co- or by-product uranium. Recently, Greenland Minerals and Energy (ASX:GGG) announced (June 21) in a technical update of the Kvanefjeld REE-U-Zn project, Greenland, potential production of 40,000tpa TREO and 9.5mlbspa U3O8, for the first 15 years of the project. Potential commissioning 2015. The scale of uranium production compares with Yeelirrie (ASX:BHP) 7.7mlbspa, Husab (ASX:EXT) 15mlbspa and Cigar Lake (TSX:CCO) 18mlbspa.
The FIP is currently US$48/lb. The contract price is US$68/lb (May 31). While Germany has announced it will close all 17 of its nuclear power reactors by 2022… …many countries have publically stated their continued commitment to nuclear energy, most notably, and arguably of greatest influence, the US. Emerging trends: increased REE prices are expected to support new REE production and associated co- and by-product uranium production.
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 5
RCR June Quarter Featured Company Summary
AUSTRALIA
Company Code Comment
Alligator Energy Limited AGE Advanced Exploration
Well funded explorer operating in Australia's premier uranium province.
Drilling on established high grade uranium prospects through 2H11.
Potential JORC resource late 2011/early 2012 at the Caramal prospect,
which has similarities to Jabiluka and Ranger.
Australian-American Mining Corp. Limited AIW Resource definition/Scoping
AIW's 2011 uranium resource target at three US projects (NV,TX,NM) is 28-
42mlbs at 0.05-0.12% U3O8, a significant increase from the current
12.8mlb resource. Gold, rare metals/REE add upside potential. La Paz
(Arizona) REE assays awaited. TSX listing July '11.
Bannerman Resources Limited BMN DFS underway, advanced exploration
Advancing the DFS, further project optimisation and procuring a
development partner for its 212mlb Etango Heap Leach Project in Namibia
are priorities for BMN in 2011, which should drive share price upside from
current modest US$0.40/lb resource valuation.
Deep Yellow Limited DYL PFS, Advanced Exploration
DYL's flagship Omahola Project in Namibia, (2.2mlbpa potential production
2014, PFS underway), looks very robust with ~US$25/lb opex indicated.
The Ongolo high grade discovery will further enhance Omahola grades and
economics as this resource grows.
Energy and Minerals Australia Limited EMA Development
As EMA gears up for a PFS for 2.6mlbpa uranium production at the Mulga
Rock Deposits, WA, the project potential (RCR assessed NAV
A$0.30/share) is being overshadowed by the continuation of a five year
legal battle over tenements and the need to find a new MD.
Energy Resources of Australia Limited ERA Producer
ERA's share price outlook remains volatile. Ranger project expansions,
production and opex outlook highly leveraged to environmental, social and
economic outcomes over the next 12 months. Operations back online June
'11 after 1H suspension.
Extract Resources Limited EXT Advanced exploration, DFS
We expect that China's CGNPC will come back for another tilt at EXT's
42.8% shareholder, Kalahari, at a 'flow through' level for EXT of at least
A$9.00/share, given the huge strategic potential of EXT's Husab resource
(DFS completed, potential >600mlb resource).
Greenland Minerals and Energy Limited GGG Pre-Feasibility Study
The Kvanefjeld resource stands at 350mlbs of U3O8, 6.5mt of total REO
and 1.4mt Zn. A definitive feasibility study (DFS) for production, including
uranium, should start in 2H11. Potential for strategic, robust world class
REE-U-Zn project from 2015.
Paladin Energy Limited PDN Producer
PDN production guidance is 6mlbs U3O8 for FY11 - the low end of
expectations and follows high rainfall events at LHM and continuing ramp-
up to nameplate at KM. PDN is presently focused on achieving production
targets and has initiated cost cutting programs.
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 6
AUSTRALIA (cont.)
Company Code Comment
Peninsula Energy Limited PEN Prefeasibility Study
PEN is approaching a production decision at Lance ISR project in WY.
Resource 41mlbs U3O8 (+25%, Jun '11). DFS 3Q11. Production potential
2012. A$15m conditional financing announced at 50% premium to market
with strategic investor NuCore Energy (June '11).
PepinNini Minerals Limited PNN BFS, Advanced Exploration
With the Crocker Well Uranium BFS (60% SinoSteel, 40% PNN, 11.7mlb
resource) on hold, PNN is targeting high grade gold in QLD, Au-Cu
potential in Argentina, a DSO iron ore resource in WA and large scale
magnetite deposits in Curnamona Province (SA).
Toro Energy Limited TOE BFS and Exploration
With TOE's regional Wiluna (WA) resource base edging towards 40mlb,
focus will now be on the BFS (due 4Q11) for this A$260m, 2.2mlbpa
project. Meanwhile, the Toro team has ambitions to create a much bigger
company via exploration and acquisitions.
CANADA
Company Code Comment
CanAlaska Uranium Ltd CVV Mid Exploration
CVV has a strategic land position (2.9m ac) in the Athabasca Basin with a
pipeline of high value exploration targets and funding from key strategic
investors (incl. Mitsubishi, KEPCO). Summer exploration: drilling Fond du
Lac (1,500m); multiple geophys surveys in prepartion for Winter drilling.
Ur-Energy Inc URE Permitting
Lost Creek ISR project (WY) is nearing the end of the permitting process.
The NRC issued second Draft Source Material and Byproduct License
(May '11) and confirmed final completion of SEIS (Jun '11). Production
potential 1H12; 1mlbspa U3O8, opex US$20/lb.
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 7
Comparative Charts
EV/resource values (adjusted for cash) have fallen in recent months; but clearly, producers and near term producers are achieving the highest valuations in the current market.
Some companies have registered outstanding share price performance gains over the past 12 months, despite the tough market conditions. These include Peninsula Energy and Ur-Energy, each nearing production decisions for ISR projects in Wyoming; and Greenland Minerals and Energy which is achieving key project milestones in Greenland.
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 8
[THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK]
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 9
Explorers’ Development Cycle: Conceptual market capitalisation versus development stage; June Q 2011
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 10
Financial Data
Company Statistics
C OM P A N Y Share Price (LC$/share)3
2 Fully
Diluted
M arket
Cap Book
Enterprise
Value
ExchangesCode Status1 Yr End 52 week Current Shares Opt+W2 C. Notes2 Shares (undiluted) Cash Debt Value (Undiluted)
27 June 2011 Hi Low (m) (m) (m) (m) (LC$m)3 (LC$m)3 (LC$m)3 (LC$m)3 (LC$m)3
AUSTRALIA (A$)
Alligator Energy Limited AGE E June ASX No 0.25 0.08 0.09 123 48 0 171 11 12.6 0.0 14 11
Australian-American M ining Corp. Limited AIW E June ASX OTC FSE AIWO 0.11 0.03 0.03 337 185 0 522 11 4.2 0.0 15 11
Bannerman Resources Limited BM N E June ASX TSX No 0.91 0.21 0.23 234 19 23 276 53 13.8 10.0 83 63
Deep Yellow Limited DYL E June ASX No 0.39 0.12 0.14 1128 23 5 1155 152 14.0 0.0 132 152
Energy and M inerals Australia Limited EM A E June ASX EM AO 0.30 0.10 0.10 388 67 30 485 39 1.1 0.0 5 39
Energy Resources of Aust ralia Limited ERA P Dec ASX No 15.08 3.95 4.13 191 0 0 191 788 27.7 0.0 927 788
Extract Resources Limited EXT E June ASX TSX No 10.80 5.96 7.69 251 1 0 252 1930 74.8 0.0 210 1930
Greenland M inerals and Energy Limited GGG E Dec ASX OTC FSE GGGO 1.41 0.31 0.72 386 22 0 408 278 21.6 0.0 73 278
Paladin Energy Limited PDN P June ASX TSX NSE No 5.61 2.25 2.44 778 0 121 899 1898 185.9 727.8 963 2625
Peninsula Energy Limited PEN E June ASX PENOA, PENOC 0.16 0.03 0.08 2093 900 46 3040 157 26.0 0.0 80 157
PepinNini M inerals Limited PNN E June ASX No 0.37 0.10 0.10 90 0 0 90 9 4.5 0.0 26 9
Toro Energy Limited TOE E June ASX No 0.18 0.06 0.07 965 20 0 985 70 24.6 0.0 108 70
Total: Australia 410.7 737.8 2636 6134
CANADA (C$)CanAlaska Uranium Ltd CVV E April TSX OTC FSE No 1.90 0.62 0.69 20 5 0 26 14 18.8 0.0 60 14
Ur-Energy Inc URE I Dec TSX AM EX No 3.35 0.76 1.65 104 6 0 109 171 35.5 0.0 77 171
Total: Canada 18.8 0.0 60 14
Total: (US$)4 455 782 2856 6516
(1) P: Producer; E: Explorer; I: Imminent - includes companies with bankable feasibility studies and likely to be in production within 3 years; IHC: Investment Hold ing Company
(2) Fully Diluted (shares, options + warrants (opt. + w), convertib le notes (Conv. N), other obligations)
(3) L.C. - Local Currency unit ; End of quarter forecast. (4) AUD/USD: 1.06; CAN/USD: 1.02
Exchanges
C OM P A N Y
(A) Explorat ion (L.C.$m)7 (B) Corporate (L.C.$m)7Drilling ('000 m)Code Land (A)/(A+B) %
27 June 2011 ('000 ha)6 M ar-11 Jun-11 2011 2012 M ar-11 Jun-11 2011 2012 M ar-11 Jun-11 2011 2012 Jun-11 2011 2012
AUSTRALIA (A$)
Alligator Energy Limited AGE 705 0.0 0.5 0.5 7.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 2.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.6 70 60 58
Australian-American M ining Corp. Limited AIW 505 0.0 1.0 8.4 5.0 0.9 0.7 3.1 3.7 0.8 0.6 2.7 2.4 54 53 61
Bannerman Resources Limited BMN 24 5.0 7.5 30.0 30.0 2.3 3.7 11.5 14.0 1.2 1.3 5.4 5.6 74.0 68.1 71.4
Deep Yellow Limited DYL 2,933 45.7 45.0 192.5 187.0 2.8 3.5 15.2 17.2 1.0 0.9 3.9 4.0 79.3 79.4 81.1
Energy and M inerals Australia Limited EMA 340 10.0 10.0 40.0 40.0 0.7 1.0 3.6 6.0 0.4 0.4 1.6 1.6 71.4 69.0 78.9
Energy Resources of Australia Limited ERA 8 0.0 5.0 20.0 35.0 7.0 7.0 28.0 28.0 3.1 3.1 12.3 12.5 69.5 69.5 69.1
Extract Resources Limited EXT 270 50.0 80.0 295.0 320.0 8.0 10.0 49.3 60.0 2.6 3.0 10.1 10.8 76.9 82.9 84.7
Greenland M inerals and Energy Limited GGG 211 5.0 5.0 21.0 20.0 4.3 4.6 12.0 8.0 2.1 2.4 7.8 6.4 65.3 60.6 55.6
Paladin Energy Limited PDN na 25.0 25.0 100.0 100.0 4.5 4.5 18.0 18.0 10.0 10.0 45.0 40.0 31.0 28.6 31.0
Peninsula Energy Limited PEN 272 10.0 10.0 52.9 40.0 2.6 4.6 13.6 8.0 1.6 1.1 4.9 4.4 80.7 73.4 64.5
PepinNini M inerals Limited PNN 1,607 4.8 8.5 23.5 26.0 0.7 0.8 3.5 3.6 0.5 0.2 1.4 1.2 80.0 71.3 75.0
Toro Energy Limited TOE 4,690 5.5 6.0 27.0 23.0 3.1 3.2 16.0 14.0 0.2 0.7 2.8 3.2 82.1 85.0 81.4
Total: Australia 161 204 811 833 37 45 175 183
CANADA (C$)CanAlaska Uranium Ltd CVV 987 5.0 8.0 23.0 16.3 0.7 5.0 10.1 13.5 0.5 0.7 1.9 2.6 88.5 84.2 83.9
Ur-Energy Inc URE 26 20.0 20.0 80.0 80.0 0.8 1.5 5.3 6.0 1.2 1.2 4.6 4.6 57 53 57
Total: Canada 25 28 103 96 1 7 15 20
Total: (US$)4 41 54 201 214
(6) To convert hectares to acres, multiply by 2.47; eg 100 thousand hectares ('000 ha) = 247 thousand acres ('000 ac)
(7) L.C. - Local Currency unit
(A) Explorat ion (L.C.$m)7 (B) Corporate (L.C.$m)7Drilling ('000 m)
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 11
Reserves, Resources and Historic Mineralisation
Valuation and Performance Data
C OM P A N Y Total - Gold Product ion
Code Status1 Other Other Other Equivalent 3 Commencement
27 June 2011 Mlb kt M lb kt M lb kt M lb kt (Moz) Year
AUSTRALIA
Alligator Energy Limited AGE E 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 na
Australian-American M ining Corp. Limited AIW E 0.0 0.0 12.8 5.8 1.0 0.5 13.8 6.3 0.5 na
Bannerman Resources Limited BM N E 0.0 0.0 170.1 77.1 0.0 0.0 170.1 77.1 6.2 na
Deep Yellow Limited DYL E 0.0 0.0 104.1 47.2 0.0 0.0 104.1 47.2 3.8 na
Energy and M inerals Australia Limited EMA E 0.0 0.0 59.6 27.0 0.0 0.0 59.6 27.0 2.2 na
Energy Resources of Aust ralia Limited ERA P 214.7 97.4 404.6 183.5 0.0 0.0 619.4 281.0 22.4 1981
Extract Resources Limited EXT E 224.8 102.0 512.8 232.6 0.0 0.0 512.8 232.6 18.5 na
Greenland M inerals and Energy Limited GGG E 0.0 0.0 213.5 96.8 0.0 0.0 213.5 96.8 7.7 na
Paladin Energy Limited PDN P 159.2 72.2 510.8 231.7 35.9 16.3 546.7 248.0 19.8 2008
Peninsula Energy Limited PEN E 0.0 0.0 41.4 18.8 6.1 2.8 47.5 21.5 1.7 na
PepinNini M inerals Limited PNN E 0.0 0.0 5.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 5.0 2.3 0.2 na
Toro Energy Limited TOE E 0.0 0.0 30.6 13.9 0.0 0.0 30.6 13.9 1.1 na
Average: Australia
CANADACanAlaska Uranium Ltd CVV E 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 na
Ur-Energy Inc URE I 0.0 0.0 27.1 12.3 0.0 0.0 27.1 12.3 1.0 na
Total/Total Average 599 272 2092 949 43 20 2351 1066
(1) P: Producer; E: Explorer; I: Imminent - includes companies with bankable feasibility studies and likely to be in product ion within 3 years; IHC: Investment Holding Company
(2) Reserves, resources and mineralised material published by the relevant company. Tonnes are metric (2204.6 pounds).
The applicable mineral resource codes are by country: Aust ralian: JORC, Canadian: NI 43-101, South Africa: SAM REC(5) M F Global; (FIP) fund implied price represents the price reversed out of the closed end
(3) For uranium only. Assumes a uranium price of US$60.00/ lb and a gold price of US$1425/oz physical fund UPC.
* M ineral resource est imates are inclusive of the mineral reserve. ^ ERA reserves are in addition to resources.
(All M ineralisat ion)1
Total Uranium (U3O8)
Uranium (U3O8) Uranium (U3O8) Uranium (U3O8)
Reserves (Equity)2 Resources (Equity)2
Historical/M ineralised Material
(Equity)2
C OM P A NY EV-Cash EV-Cash EV-Cash
Code P/Book P/Net Cash /Reserves /Res'v+resources /Total U3O8 Spot Contract FIP5
27 June 2011 (x) (x) US$/ lb US$/lb US$/ lb 54.25 68.00 48.40 1 month 3 month 6 month 12 month Hi Lo
AUSTRALIA
Alligator Energy Limited AGE 0.8 0.9 na na na na na na -11 -33 na na 64 6
Australian-American M ining Corp. Limited AIW 0.7 2.6 na 0.54 0.50 1 1 1 -14 -42 -46 3 70 10
Bannerman Resources Limited BM N 0.6 14.1 na 0.31 0.31 1 0 1 -27 -53 -61 -17 75 10
Deep Yellow Limited DYL 1.2 10.9 na 1.41 1.41 3 2 3 -23 -43 -57 -7 65 13
Energy and M inerals Australia Limited EM A 7.3 34.7 na 0.67 0.67 1 1 1 -41 -49 -55 -38 66 5
Energy Resources of Australia Limited ERA 0.8 28.5 3.75 1.99 1.99 4 3 4 -16 -52 -63 -70 73 5
Extract Resources Limited EXT 9.2 25.8 8.75 3.84 3.84 7 6 8 0 -9 -14 15 29 29
Greenland M inerals and Energy Limited GGG 3.8 12.9 na 1.27 1.27 2 2 3 7 -31 -25 89 49 132
Paladin Energy Limited PDN 2.0 -3.5 16.24 5.06 4.73 9 7 10 -25 -37 -50 -35 57 8
Peninsula Energy Limited PEN 2.0 6.0 na 3.35 2.92 6 5 7 -9 -25 4 150 52 168
PepinNini M inerals Limited PNN 0.4 2.0 na 0.94 0.94 2 1 2 -26 -46 -55 -33 73 5
Toro Energy Limited TOE 0.7 2.9 na 1.59 1.59 3 2 3 -20 -37 -51 7 59 14
Average: Australia 9.58 1.91 1.83 4 3 4
CANADACanAlaska Uranium Ltd CVV 0.2 0.7 na na nmf na na na -15 -30 -55 -37 64 11
Ur-Energy Inc URE 2.2 4.8 na 5.10 5.10 9 8 11 -6 -6 -38 92 51 117
Average: Canada na 5.10 5.10 9 8 11
Total/Total Average 7.19 2.01 1.94 4 3 4 -15 -33 -40 9 56 36
(%)
Share Price Performance Current Share Price
% of f 12 month
Valuat ion (%) of U3O8 Price
(USD)
Res'v+resources
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 12
Alligator Energy Limited
0.25
Debt (A$m) - Jun 11F
Enterprise value (A$m)
Avg monthly volume (m)
Cash (A$m) - Jun 11F
Price/Cash (x) Cash (A$m)
Price/Book (x)
Listed company options: Net asset backing (Ac/share)
* Uranium prospective properties only. Quarters refer to calendar year.
Contacts Directors
Mr Denis Gately
Executive Chairman G Duncan (Exec Alternate)
Tel: +61 (07) 3852 4712 P Dickson (Non Exec)
Spring Hill, Qld, Australia L Curyer (non Exec)
A Vigar (Non Exec)
Analyst: Murray Brooker
Two Rocks
U
none* naU
Unconformity na Expl AUS (NT)
100%South Horn
ppm
100% U none*
na
Focused on Australia's premier uranium region - Alligator
River Uranium Province (ARUP) - host to 950 mlb U3O8.
Tenements within Arnhem Land 60km east of Jabiluka,
in the same host rocks. 2011 exploration to focus in
eastern part of the Tin Camp tenements.
Arnhem Land under-explored due to former government
3 mines uranium policy, previous low uranium prices
and access restrictions by traditional owners.
Prospects contain historical high grade uranium
intersections >0.5%. Jabiluka-style setting at Caramal
prospect, with potential for a JORC resource in 2011.
Airborne geophysics completed to target drill holes.
5,500m drilling on three prospects in 2H11.
AGE board and management have extensive experience
technical, legal and commercial experience in the
uranium industry
.
0.0
0.0
0.0
U3O8
Reserves
Mt
U3O8
Total
Caramal none*
0.0
Land holding ('000 ha)
-
Company Comment
Mineralised Material (est., non compliant w ith JORC)
Resources
A$ 0.09
Production and Financial Forecasts
2012FJun-11F 2010aMar-11a
Well funded explorer operating in Australia's premier uranium
province. Drilling on established high grade uranium prospects
through 2H11. Potential JORC resource late 2011/early 2012 at the
Caramal prospect, which has similarities to Jabiluka and Ranger.
Year End: June
0.0
0.80
1.44
to
040
0.400.40
AGE.AU27 June 2011
Uranium
Australia (NT)
0.95
Advanced Exploration
Exchanges: ASX:AGE
Share price (A$)
Capital Profile
52 week range (A$/share)
0.09
0.0822011F
122.9
0
Exploration and evaluation (A$m)
47.7
Shares on issue (pr end) (m shares)
Exploration/(Expl.+ Corporate) (%)
1.210.26
70 60
Corporate (A$m)
170.6
10.9 00
Market capitalisation (undiluted) (A$m)
0 0Drilling - RAB (m)
Funding duration at current burn (years)
Number of shares (m)
Fully diluted (m)
Convertible notes (m)
Options and warrants (m)
10.9
0
0.0
0
0.0
155.3
Mr Robert Sow erby (3.5%), National Nominees (2.8%)
80.0
-
Major shareholders: Macquarie (11%), Lagoon Creek Resources (4.5%), 705
8.8
12.612.6
500Drilling - Other/Diamond (m)
00
13.8
-
0
0
0.0
0
155.3
0
Geology
705
Equity
Classification/
0.0
Tenement costs ($k per year)
Funding from JV partners (A$m)
0.0
0.9
8.8
%
U3O8
Cash backing (Ac/share)
No
8.9
Ore
Capital rais ings (A$m)
12.6
15.0
Investment Points
0.8
9.0
10
Project
Option
Cut Off
8.1
Route
R Sowerby (CEO Exec) Target
PartnerMetal
www.alligatorenergy.com.au
Project
Gorrunghar
Ownership/ Process
Unconformity
100%
Type
2.25
0.0
0
7,000
8.8
1.60
Project
9.3
Unconformitynone*
0.0
Location
AUS (NT)
6.3
500
100% Unconformity Adv Expl
Key Projects
JV
U
Status
2.3
0.0 0.0
64
U3O8 Eqty
* An aboriginal trust holds 2% in tw o of the three granted tenements
Alligator Energy Limited
Uranium
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised MaterialCode for reporting mineral resources - Australian: (JORC)
na AUS (NT)
Expl AUS (NT)
0.0 0.0
Mlb
705
0.0
9.0
6.4
-
Kt Mlb
0.0
U3O8
15.0
Expl
155.3
705
155.3
8.1
-
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Ap
r-11
May
-11
Sh
are
Pri
ce (
$/S
har
e)
AGE - Alligator Energy Limited
Source: Bloomberg
Overview: AGE listed on the ASX 3rd February 2011, with a focus on uranium exploration in the prolific Alligator River Uranium Province (ARUP) of the Northern Territory (NT), having successfully bid for tenements held by major uranium producer Cameco, in a highly competitive bid process. The project area contains prospects where previous exploration drilling has intersected high grade uranium mineralisation. Mining and Exploration agreements are in place with Traditional Owners and drilling is underway. Cameco retains an option to buy back 51% of total resources at 10% of spot price if a deposit >20,000t U3O8 is defined. AGE will retain off take rights on its share of resources. The purchase from Cameco includes a camp and facilities with ~$1m replacement value. AGE also holds 11 Exploration Licence Applications (ELAs) in the ARUP totalling 415km2. These are being progressed to granted status. Alligator River Uranium Province (ARUP): Targets are high grade unconformity style uranium deposits, such as ARUP deposits Ranger orebodies 1 and 3 (multiple pods, 134mlb U3O8), Jabiluka (312mlb U3O8) and Nabarlek (single pod of ~24mlb U3O8). The tenements cover the same units, structural setting and mineralisation as these deposits. Little uranium exploration was undertaken in the ARUP between the 1970’s and the 1990’s due to low U prices and the former 3 mines policy. Tin Camp Creek - Cameco Purchase (NT; uranium): This area 275km E of Darwin was explored by Cameco and purchased from them for A$3m. The tenements include several prospects, the most advanced of which is Caramal, ~60km east of Jabiluka and ~20km south of Nabarlek. Caramal: High grade drill intersections include 21m @ 0.50% U3O8 and 22.7m @ 0.38% U3O8. There are suggested similarities with Jabiluka and Ranger in the geological setting, host lithological and alteration styles. High resolution airborne magnetics and radiometrics have been flown by AGE to evaluate fault offsets, and target drilling at faults crossing the prospective horizon away from known Caramal mineralization. Six holes planned in known prospect to confirm results and bring mineralised material to JORC standard. 3,500m drilling planned 2H11. South Horn (NT; uranium): Targeting unconformity style uranium adjacent to the Beatrice Fault, which juxtaposes fractured dolerite and prospective Cahill Formation. Airborne radiometric data shows areas with elevated uranium radiometric response requiring drilling. Historical drilling includes 13m @ 0.21% and 15m @ 0.47% U3O8. 1500m drilling in 2011. Two Rocks (NT, uranium): Historical exploration defined two small zones of uranium and copper with the best historical intersection of 4m @ 0.82% U3O8. Electromagnetic and radiometric targets representing possible black shales are a priority for 500m of drilling. Gorrunghar (NT, Uranium): No exploration has been conducted since initial discovery in 1973, when 8.6m @ 0.33% U3O8 was intersected. Mapping and radiometric surveys are planned in 2011. Corporate: Raised $1 m before costs at IPO and listing in Feb 2011. MD has extensive uranium exploration experience and worked at Ranger. AGE personnel and consultants have extensive experience with ARUP geology and native title holders. Investment Comment: AGE’s tenements are located in one of the world’s premier provinces for high grade uranium deposits. Initial exploration to concentrate on granted tenements with historical high grade intersections, such as Caramal. Share price drivers are drilling and resource definition in an area of historical high grade uranium discoveries, with potential maiden resource 4Q11 at Caramal.
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 13
AGE’s exploration tenements are exclusively in the Alligator River Uranium Province (ARUP, NT), purchased from Cameco (51% claw back) or held 100%. ARUP known uranium endowment is 950mlbs of
high grade uranium resources (>0.1% U3O8) – includes Ranger and Jabiluka (ERA).
Tin Camp Project (NT, 98% AGE, purchased from Cameco), showing high grade historical prospects and drill intersections to be followed up by Alligator Energy. The Tin Camp area has exploration
dating to the 1970’s.
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 14
Australian-American Mining Corp Limited
0.11
Debt (A$m) - Jun 11F
Enterprise value (A$m)
Avg monthly volume (m)
Cash (A$m) - Jun 11F
Price/Cash (x) Cash (A$m)
Price/Book (x)
Listed company options: Net asset backing (Ac/share)
* Uranium prospective properties only. Quarters refer to calendar year.
Contacts Directors
Mr Jim Malone
Executive Chairman G Barns (Non Exec)
Tel: +61 (0) 8 9325 5568 D Falconer (Non Exec)
West Perth, WA, Australia D Geldard (CEO, Exec)
S Jackson (Non Exec)
[email protected] Early Expl USA (AZ)San Marcos 100% Au,Ag na Structural na
USA (AZ)Pegmatite na
371.7
505
331.7
6.0
1.3
-
Inferred
Mid Expl
8.9
Mid Expl
5.2
0.07
300
100%
Kt
U3O8Cut Off
na
0.09
0.7100
ppm Mlb
0.0
7.9
11.4
2.3
-
U3O8
0.0
11.4
Mlb
na USA (AZ)
1.5
Scoping USA (NV)
U3O8 Eqty
Australian-American Mining Corp Ltd
Uranium
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised MaterialCode for reporting mineral resources - Australian: (JORC)
8,350
100% Sandstone Adv Expl
12.8
1.00.45
5.9
0.0
Location
USA (NM)
1.3
600
0.7
Toll
67
3.70
0.0
0
5,000
6.6
2.40
8.0
Project Ore
Granite-sed
100%
Type
Unconformity
U
naApache Basin
J Malone (Exec Chair)
La Paz
Lone Star LLC
100%Apex-Lowboy
Lone Star
100% REE
none
Status
Apex-Lowboy 100%
Target
PartnerOptionProject
Rio Puerco
1.3
Route
Inferred
100%
7.0
Ownership/ Process
4.5
Total
Metal
Funding from JV partners (A$m)
0.0Capital rais ings (A$m)
4.2
0.0
Investment Points
0.7
4.6
2.4
4.5
%
U3O8
Cash backing (Ac/share)
AIWO
1.6
Focused on established (brownfields) uranium projects
in USA (Texas, New Mexico, Nevada). Potential for low
capital intensity, low opex (~US$25/lb) and toll treatment.
Current resource inventory 12.85mlbs U3O8 with a target
of 28-42mlbs @ 0.05%-0.12% for 2011 at three projects.
Rio Puerco (NM): located in Grants Mineral Belt. JORC
resource 11.4mlbs U3O8 grading 0.09%. Exploration
upside on 15km strike, target 20mlbs. Drilling 2H11.
Apex-Lowboy (NV): Apex resource 1.45mlb U3O8 in area
of historic production. Combined exploration target to
18mlb U3O8. Further drilling expected 2H11.
Lone Star (TX): Target 3-4mlbs U3O8 with potential for
ISR. Drilling likely 2H11. Experienced JV partner team
targeting additional brown fields projects.
Picacho rare metals (Li, Rb, Ta) and La Paz (REE,
elevated HREE) projects in Arizona. Metallurgical testing
underway. La Paz drilled 2Q11, results awaited.
Mt
4.6
0
0.8
400
Geology
505
Equity
Classification/
0.5
Tenement costs ($k per year)
4.24.2
1,000Drilling - Other/Diamond (m)
00
5.4
-
0 0 0
3.8
0
0.0
331.7
Metco (10%)
162.4
-
Major shareholders: JP Morgan (12%), Libra Advisors (10%), 505
10.1 1,5000
Market capitalisation (undiluted) (A$m)
0
Number of shares (m)
Fully diluted (m)
Convertible notes (m)
Options and warrants (m)
10.1
Share price (A$)
52 week range (A$/share)
0Drilling - RAB (m)
Funding duration at current burn (years)
331.7Shares on issue (pr end) (m shares)
Corporate (A$m)
521.7
Exploration/(Expl.+ Corporate) (%)
3.060.91
0.03
0.0292011F
336.7
2.26
Exploration and evaluation (A$m)
Year End: June
54
0.84
AIW.AU27 June 2011
Uranium, Rare Metals, Gold
USA (TX,NV,NM,AZ)
0.70
Resource definition/Scoping
Exchanges: ASX:AIW, OTC:MNOMY
Capital Profile
53
185.0
0.0
2.67
2.10
to
4852
0.60
17
A$ 0.030
Production and Financial Forecasts
2012FJun-11F 2010aMar-11a
AIW's 2011 uranium resource target at three US projects (NV,TX,NM)
is 28-42mlbs at 0.05-0.12% U3O8, a significant increase from the
current 12.8mlb resource. Gold, rare metals/REE add upside
potential. La Paz (Arizona) REE assays awaited. TSX listing July '11.
Land holding ('000 ha)
-
Company Comment
1.0
Mineralised Material (est., non compliant w ith JORC)
Apex
U3O8
Reserves
Key Projects
JV
1.0
Project
12.8
Resources
Rio Puerco
1.5
90% Uwww.ausamerican.com.au USA (TX)
Analyst: Murray Brooker
U
none naU
Sandstone na Adv Expl
Early Expl USA (AZ)White Picacho 100% Li,REE na Pegmatite na
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
Jun
-10
Aug
-10
Sep
-10
Oct
-10
No
v-10
Jan
-11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Ap
r-11
May
-11
Sh
are
Pri
ce (
$/S
har
e)
AIW - Australian-American Mining Corporation Ltd
Source: Bloomberg
Overview: AIW (or “AusAmerican”) listed on the ASX in September, 2005, as Monaro Mining NL (MRO) and changed name in April 2010 to reflect its current focus: brownfields uranium and gold exploration in the USA, although some tenements are also prospective for rare metals. Apex-Lowboy Project (Nevada; uranium): 270km E of Reno. Apex includes an historic mine (105klb U3O8
production to 1966, grading 0.25%). Mineralisation is on a sediment-granite contact. JORC resource (Mar ‘11) of 1.45mlbs U3O8 grading 0.07%, including 0.85mlbs @ 0.188%. There is a Scoping Study (Jul ’07) for open cut (strip 2:1) and heap leach, recovery 80% in 48hrs (capex then US$24m, opex US$22/lb). There is exploration potential at Apex-Lowboy on ~12km strike. AIW has exploration targets of 2-3mlbs U3O8 grading 0.05-0.12% at Apex, and 2mlb-15mlb at 0.05%-0.12% U3O8 at Lowboy. Lowboy drilling is expected in 2H11. A feasibility study could be completed 2011. Production target 2H12. Rio Puerco Project (New Mexico; uranium): Targeting roll front uranium deposits in Grants Mineral Belt -historic production ~340mlb U3O8. Regional deposits include Roca Honda (33mlb U3O8, Strathmore Minerals -mine/mill permitting). The JORC resource at Rio Puerco is 11.4mlb U3O8 grading 0.09% (cut-off 0.03%). This includes 5.8mlbs @ 0.27% (cut-off 0.1%). Infrastructure includes a mine with 260m concrete shaft and drives. The claim block hosting the resource is 7% of the 48km
2 project. Prospective strike is 15km. There is an
Exploration Target for 2011 of >20mlbs U3O8 grading 0.05% to 0.20%. Drilling to commence June 2011 (35 holes, 7700m) and extend over 4-6 months, with aim to upgrade resource to indicated and measured and providing samples for ISR metallurgy. Potential to toll treat ore at future nearby operations (Strathmore plant potential from 2015+). The deposit could be ISR amenable. Lone Star Project (Texas, uranium): In the Texas Uranium Belt, transaction completed 2Q10. Resource target is 4-6mlbs grading 0.12%-0.15% U3O8, after Union Carbide in the 1960s. Mineralisation is shallow (10ft-150ft), sediment-hosted and possibly ISR amenable. Texas is a favourable jurisdiction, with uranium mills within 100km. Drilling planned for 2H11, with resource statement anticipated 4Q11. Lone Star LLC (partner) 10% free carried in project and responsible for identifying new projects in Texas. Apache Basin JV (Arizona; uranium): Target is unconformity-hosted uranium. Targets are below known fracture-controlled high grade (0.18-0.19% U3O8) uranium mineralisation. Rare and Specialty Metal Pegmatites (Arizona): AIW White Picacho claims are prospective for lithium, rubidium, tantalum and REE in pegmatites. Initial sampling was encouraging, e.g. Li2O to 4.5% and Ta to 0.2%-0.3%, with 1300 samples taken and undergoing metallurgical testing. Possible drilling 2H11. La PazREE Project, 120 miles NW of Phoenix - drilled 2Q11 (5,120m, 195 holes) to 30m depth. Assays awaited.Wide spectrum of REEs (including heavy REEs comprising ~15-20% of total REE). Met test work expected 3Q11. Potential for bulk mineable, large tonnage REE deposit; proximal to key project infrastructure. Gold projects: San Marcos (AZ, 10.5km
2 including historic workings on 750m open strike to +100m depth),
where AIW chip and channel samples run to 98.2g/t Au, with 28% of 86 samples showing +1g/t Au. Target detachment fault hosted (Copperstone-type) mineralisation. Drilling planned for 2H11. Corporate: Raised $8.4m before costs through placement and SPP in Nov-Dec ‘10, of which 40% went to North American investors. TSX listing expected 3Q11. The Board has been partly restructured to include directors with further experience in project development (Jackson) and uranium (Falconer). Investment Comment: AIW’s strategy of acquiring advanced exploration projects could result in near to medium term, low cost, uranium production – possibly via in-situ recovery (ISR) techniques. The 2011 resource target is to define 28-42mlbs U3O8 across several projects, and multiple drill programs are underway and planned for 2H11. Share price drivers are resource upgrades, exploration results (uranium, gold, rare metals/REE) and possibly the TSX listing.
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 15
Project locations: Apex-Lowboy and Rio Puerco are 100% owned by AIW and Lone Star 90%. All are advanced exploration projects with historic uranium mines and/or JORC-qualifying/historic resources. Drilling at Rio Puerco and Lone Star 2H11. The Arizona rare metals/REE project is a major new focus.
Rio Puerco claims map: the project lies at the eastern end of the well-known Grants Mineral Belt, which has pre-1986 production of >320mlbs U3O8. The region is host to a number of large uranium deposits that are in the advanced stages of mine permitting. Rio Puerco has resource of 11.4mlbs U3O8 (Oct ’09). Drilling 2H11.
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 16
Deep Yellow Limited
0.39
Debt (A$m) - Jun 11F
Enterprise value (A$m)
Avg monthly volume (m)
Cash (A$m) - Jun 11F
Price/Cash (x) Cash (A$m)
Price/Book (x)
Listed company options: Net asset backing (Ac/share)
Quarters refer to calendar year end.
Resources
Tubas-Tumas Palaeoch.**Ind + Inferred **
Ausinanis
Napperby
* ~55% (13.4mlb) of Omahola resource is higher grade INCA resource, grades ave. 405ppm.
** A higher grade Tubas-Tumas resource of 34.8mlb grading 424ppm has been defined
Contacts Directors
(Managing Director)
Deep Yellow Limited
Tel: 61 (0) 8 9286 6999
Subiaco, Australia
www.deepyellow.com.au
Nova Energy JV
uranium
Namibiana magnetite na Mid ExplShiyela 100% iron
100%
Analyst: Dr Tony Parry
Mr Greg Cochran
M Kavanagh (Exec)
R Brunovs (Non Exec)
G Swaby (Non Exec)
M Greene (Non Exec Ch.)
0.0
65% TOEuranium
Project
Namibia 100% na
Mineralised Material (est., non compliant w ith JORC)
G Cochran (MD)
0.00.0
Key Projects
Ownership/ JV Target
Option Metal
Cash backing (Ac/share)
ppm
Reserves
Code for reporting mineral resources - Australian:
1.2
11.7
1.5
na
Xstratauranium
Partner
1128
4.00
97
1128
0.7 -0.3
3.92
87
17.20
3.03
15.853.45
0.90
8479
20,000
167,000
2,933
Geology Equity
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised Material
0.0
152.2 40,000
152
20,0005,000
0.00.0
1155
164,828
0.8
11261128
Exploration and evaluation (A$m)
Drilling - RC/Diamond (m)
0.99
74
Corporate (A$m)
2.80
1128
Funding duration at current burn (years)
Shares on issue (pr end) (m shares)
na
12.0
--
ProjectProcess
0.0
-6.6
Eqty
uranium
uranium
10.9
1.2
100% uranium
PFS, Advanced Exploration
Uranium (U3O8) Classification/
Tanami-Arunta
Namibia
Aus (QLD)
Aus (NT)
Mid Expl.
Mid Expl Aus (QLD)
Early Expl
Mid Expl.
Namibia
Adv Expl PFS
-
-0.7
0.0
0.0
0.3
2.6
0.7
17.0
A$ 0.135
1.4
15.15
(JORC)
-
0.5
Company Comment
11.9
14.0
100%
Ore
100/275
Cut Off
Fully diluted (m)
LocationStatusRoute
Mt
2,933
14.0
0.0
No
DYL.AU
Exploration/(Expl.+ Corporate) (%)
Drilling - RAB (m)
Deep Yellow Limited
YEAR END: June
23.1
5
Uranium
5,000
Investment Points
Advanced stage U exploration and project development,
budget ~A$20mpa, est. cash ~A$14m Jun '11F.
Drilling 12,000m/month in Namibia plus Australian
exploration (NT & QLD).
Namibian Projects: current JORC resource is 93mlb,
includes Omahola (24.5mlb), Tumas-Tubas (50.8mlb).
Flagship is Omahola Project, targeting
2.2mlbpa U3O8 with acid leach, production target end
2014.
Omahola PFS update is imminent. Interim PFS data:
capex ~US$336m, opex ~US$25/lb.
Maiden Ongolo alaskite resource: 6.2mlb @ 410ppm.
Project newsflow: 3Q11: Omahola updated PFS, Ongolo
resource upgrade, Omahola DFS commencing 1Q12.
Shiyela magnetite project in Namibia moving to scoping
study stage, not currently reflected in share price.
ppm
Project Grade
Mlb
Funding from JV partners (A$m)
Land holding ('000 ha)
Capital raisings (A$m)
Tenement costs ($k per year)
29.6
-Leon Pretorius (5.89%), G Sw aby (3.61%).
14.0
Major shareholders: Paladin (19.96%), Robert Healy (6.46%)
18
Mar-11a
DYL's flagship Omahola Project in Namibia, (2.2mlbpa potential
production 2014, PFS underway), looks very robust with ~US$25/lb
opex indicated. The Ongolo high grade discovery will further
enhance Omahola grades and economics as this resource grows.
2010a 2011F
Production and Financial Forecasts
2012FJun-11F
0.0
40,700
2,933
0.0
2,933
0.0
3,546
27 June 2011
0.14
Number of shares (m)
Capital Profile
52 week range (A$/share) to
Namibia, Australia (QLD,NT)
0.12
1127.5
Exchanges: ASX:DYL, NSX:DYL
Share price (A$)
20,000
172,485
Convertible notes (m)
Options and warrants (m)
Market capitalisation (undiluted) (A$m)
Mlb
Total Resources
100%
35.7
34.6 18.0
11.1
104.1 104.1
24.5
18.0
7.4
3.4 3.4
13.0
24.5
Kt
50.8
0.0
12.9
315Omaholo - Namibia *
Aus (NT)calcrete alk. Leach Sc. Study
249
428
m'somatic/brec. na
hardrock/calcrete
47.2
3.6
175.3
Mount Isa Ind + Inferred
Napperby 100% uranium
100%
na
Type
Queens Gift 100%
Isa West JV
na
acid leach
hardrock/calcrete
nacalcrete/roll front
metasomatic na
Meas + Ind + Inf
Ind + Inferred
Inferred
1.5
3.4
8.2
100/200
150
300
23.0
100% 7.4
237
50.8100% 92.1 250
9.3 359 2000.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Jun
-10
Aug
-10
Sep
-10
Oct
-10
No
v-10
Dec
-10
Jan
-11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jun
-11
Sh
are
Pri
ce (
$/S
har
e)
DYL - Deep Yellow Limited
Source: Bloomberg
Overview: Deep Yellow is an advanced stage uranium exploration and project development company currently focused on projects in Namibia and Australia (QLD, NT). Namibia: DYL holds 100% of 2,875km2 ~15km SW of PDN’s Langer Heinrich mine, plus 65% of JV tenements (1,323km2) with Nova Energy (subsidiary of Toro). The Tumas-Tubas palaeochannel system is 80km length. DYL has drilled >500,000m since 2007, and only addressed a fraction of the potential. Ongolo Alaskite Maiden Resource: Discovered 2Q10, high grade alaskite ~25km NE of INCA, similar mineralisation to Extract’s Husab project. The initial JORC resource estimate (May ’11) is 6.9mt @ 410ppm for 6.2mlb U3O8. Drilling is on-going (only about 50% of ~2km strike in first resource statement) with four RC and two DD rigs on this project. An upgraded resource statement is expected in 3Q11. Omahola Project: DYL’s flagship project. Based on mining ore from three sources: the shallow (~20m deep) high grade (~400ppm) INCA uraniferous oxide project, the nearby surficial (surface to ~13m deep) lower grade free-digging (~160ppm) Tubas Red Sands (“TRS”) and the recently discovered shallow high grade (~400ppm) Ongolo Alaskite deposit (~25-200m deep). These three deposits currently have a combined resource of 24.5mlb U3O8 @ 311ppm average grade. Omahola PFS: The PFS is currently underway (SNC Lavelin). Flowsheet is based on conventional acid leach and SX/precip. DYL released interim PFS results (based only on INCA and TRS feeds) which targets production of 2.2mlbpa over a 12 year mine life. Although it is low grade, the TRS provides a low cost free-digging sand which can be readily beneficiated from ~160ppm to ~850ppm by using hydrocyclones, with ~80% uranium recovery. Capex estimate is US$324-336m. Importantly, the first pass estimate of opex is coming in at around US$25/lb, which is encouragingly low and reflects the low mining costs. The finalisation of the PFS has been extended to mid 2011 in order to incorporate Ongolo as a further high grade ore source. Opex may well reduce further with the inclusion of higher grade Olongo alaskite. A DFS is likely to commence early 2012 (after a review of the PFS), with a project start-up possible in late 2014, subject to PFS/DFS outcomes, permitting and financing. Shiyela Iron Project: Large scale (potential strike 8km, aeromag anomaly >20km) high grade magnetite discovery (two deposits so far), ~10km S of Inca and ~45km form Walvis Bay Port. After >25,000m of drilling completed, initial JORC resource is imminent. Preliminary scoping study is now underway zeroing in on a potential 30mt high grade magnetite resource, and a 15 year 2mtpa operation. Mount Isa Project (QLD, Australia): Now the main focus of Australian exploration (1,688 km2). DYL is targeting an initial 11-18mlb resource (current 3.4mlb), DYL sees potential for ~30mlb longer term. Other Australian Projects: Napperby (NT): Scoping Study completed, 7.4mlb resource. Grass Roots Exploration: DYL holds interests in >28,000 km2 tenements in NT, QLD. Currently low priority. Investment Comment: DYL’s flagship Omahola project could be producing 2.2mlbpa U3O8 by the end of 2014. It demonstrates robust PFS economics, (~US25$/lb opex is lower than that indicated for EXT’s proposed 480ppm 15mlbpa Husab Project). Capex is low, suggesting a high IRR and DYL could conceivably finance 100%. Economics will be further enhanced by including the Ongolo alaskite deposit.As this project’s star brightens, the DYL share price drifts lower in a uranium-unfriendly market. This suggests value. Our six month target range is A$0.20-A$0.25/share as the Omahola PFS advances.
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 17
It has taken only five years for DYL’s intensive uranium exploration programs, mainly in Namibia, to have grown the Namibian resource base rapidly from zero to 93mlb contained U308. Focus is now shifting towards uranium production from the Omahola Project, supported by a strong exploration pipeline.
Source : Deep Yellow
An updated PFS for DYL’s flagship Omahola project, incorporating high grade Ongolo ore, should be released early in 3Q11. A DFS during calendar 2012 could lead to a development decision early in 2013
and commissioning late 2014.
Source : Deep Yellow
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 18
Energy and Minerals Australia Limited
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 19
Our DCF valuation for EMA is based on the November 2010 Scoping Study of the Ambassador Deposit at the Mulga Rock Deposits (WA), and RCR’s uranium price assumptions (base case US$55/lb long term,
A$/US$ = 0.82 long term). This gives a target price of A$0.30/share (fully diluted).
ENERGY AND MINERALS AUSTRALIA, VALUATION
Target
Uranium Price (Low) (High)
Resource/Target Valuation Discount A$m A$m A$mProjects (mlbs) US$/lb for risk
+ Mulga Rock, Ambassador Resource 28.4 2.83 35% 98 26 199+ Mulga Rock, Emperor and Shogun 31.2 0.52 40% 20 5 93
+ Ambassador Exploration 45.4 0.05 60% 3 2 4Sub Total 105 121 33 296
+ Cash 1.1 1.1 1.1+ Tax Losses 6.9 6.9 6.9
- Corporate 1.8 1.8 1.8Sub Total 6.2 6.2 6.2
EMA NET ASSET VALUE 127 39 302
Capital Structure
Shares 388 388 388Fully Diluted Shares* 418 418 418
EMA NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE :A$/share 0.33 0.10 0.78
EMA NET ASSET VALUE DILUTED :A$/share fully diluted 0.30 0.09 0.72* Includes 30.042m performance shares plus in-the-money options
MULGA ROCKS PROJECT, AMBASSADOR DEPOSIT (based on November 2010 Scoping Study)
Equity
LONG TERM URANIUM PRICE^ :US$/lb 40 60 70 80 100
EXCHANGE RATE :AUUS 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82
MULGA ROCKS URANIUM NPV @ 10% NOMINAL* :A$m 100% 26 133 199 262 323
MULGA ROCKS URANIUM NPV @ 10% NOMINAL* :US$m 100% 21 109 163 215 265NPV/SHARE :A$/share 0.07 0.34 0.51 0.67 0.83
* Includes a Scoping Study and Inferred Resource project discount of 35% of valuation: 35%
^Uranium contract price forecasts are US$68/lb in 1H11, US$65/lb to 1Q12, US$60/lb to 4Q17, thence long term price indicated.
MULGA ROCKS URANIUM PROJECT KEY ASSUMPTIONS*
RESOURCE ESTIMATES
Mt % Mlbs Kt
Conceptual Uranium Target
Mulga Rocks, Ambassador Resource 27.6 0.047 28.4 12.9
Mulga Rocks, Emperor and Shogun 27.8 0.051 31.2 14.2Ambassador exploration targets 42.0 0.049 45.4 10.3Total 97.3 0.049 105 37.4
MINING METHOD ISR (In Situ Recovery) for sandstone; open pit for lignite-hosted uranium and other metals.
PROCESS METHOD Dual front end, and combined product preparation facility Front end: solvent extraction (SX) for ISR; acid leach and RIP (Resin in Pulp) for lignite
SX and RIP pregnant fluids combined at RIP plant for uranium precipitation
PRODUCTION RATE (U3O8) :tpa 1,200 Study assumes 50/50 ISR and RIP
:mlbspa 2.6
CAPITAL COSTS :A$m 260 Combined ISR and RIP operations
RECOVERY - URANIUM :% 65-82 ISR 65%, RIP 82%. Likely to change with further testing.
OPERATING COSTS :US$/lb 23 Net of by-product credits: base, rare and minor metals, gold
EMA assumes A$600m revenue over life of mine
TAX :% 30
ROYALTY (WA) :% 2.5 Royalty rate for metal
MINE LIFE :Years 12TARGET COMMISSION DATE : 1Q14
* These figures are preliminary in nature and are intended to provide only a general indication of project potential scale and economic robustness. Further refinement
may result from the Pre-Feasibility Study, which should commence in 2H11 and include ISR borefield trials.
Valuation Sensitivity
Sensitivity
Uranium
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 20
Energy Resources of Australia Limited*
15.08
Debt (A$m) - June 11F
Enterprise value (A$m)
Major shareholders: Rio Tinto (68.39%);
Avg monthly volume (m)
Cash (A$m) - June 11F
Price/Cash (x) Drilling - RAB (m)
Price/Book (x)
Listed company options: Land holding ('000 ha)*
*Ranger only. Quarters refer to calendar year.
Jabiluka
Jabiluka
Jabiluka
Ranger Stockpile Stockpile - Measured
Mineralised Material (est.)
* Ranger cut-off grades: 0.02% U3O
8 open pit; 0.15% U
3O
8 underground; 0.02% U
3O
8 stockplie ore.
Contacts Directors
Status
20.5
45.3
33.3
214.797.5
0.10
214.7
67.7 148.9 148.90.49 0.20
Aus (NT)
Cut Off*
192.7192.7
0.07125.3
4.54
100%
Analyst: John Wilson
Darwin (NT), Australia H. Garnett (Non Exec Dir)
www.energyres.com.au J. Pegler (Non Exec Dir)
Option Type
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised Material
Energy Resources of Australia Ltd
3.2
Route
Project
Partner
na Unconformity acid leach
20.3
Target
0.20
35,000
kt
(JORC); As at 31 December 2010.
-
1.7
Cut Off
-
Mt
Ore
100%
Resources (in addition to reserves)
Ranger Stockpile
Sub total
Reserves
Ranger No. 3 pit
Proved and Probable
44
0.25
-7
U3O8
-0.6%
35
7.9
-
Production
Tel: 61 (0) 3 9283 3628 (RIO) P. Taylor (Non Exec Dir) Jabiluka
Ranger
Project
David Skinner (IR - Rio Tinto) M. Coulter (Non Exec Dir)
Tel: 61 (0) 8 8924 3500 (ERA) R. Atkinson (Director)
Mr Rob Atkinson (CEO) D. Klinger (Chairman)
0.00.0
Ownership/ JV Process
0.00
0.12
100% 0.36Measured and Ind.
Inferred 100% 6.0
Unconformityna
Key Projects
33.3
184.8
0.0
0.10
57.5 126.810.9
38.1 0.04
183.5 404.6
126.80.53
0.02 15.1
0.20
Uranium
0
Market capitalisation (undiluted) (A$m)
EPS (norm) (A¢/share)
Investment Points
0.8
7.1
16.4
Pending Aus (NT)
404.6
36.2
20.6
0.0
15.6 15.6
36.2
87.4
7.9
Company Comment
45.3
U3O8
7.9
20.50.21
U3O8
Project
Mlb
9.3
13.8
0.06
0.08100%
%
Classification
43
28.0
-3
20,000
273
%
2009a
788
788
191
4.13
3.95
No
BlackRock Investment Management (5.03%)
16
28.5
27.7
71
2010a 2011F
5,240
393
ERA.AU
0
27 June 2011
Uranium
Australia (NT)
Producer
Exchanges: ASX:ERA
191
to
Equity Production (t)
Share price (A$)
52 week range (A$/share)
241
2012F
3,793
Net Profit (norm) (A$m)
EBIT (A$m)
YEAR END: Dec
25
130
-14
75
Fully diluted (m)
Number of shares (m)
Options and warrants (m)
0Convertible notes (m)
Production and Financial Forecasts Capital Profile
8
47
143
ERA offers 100% exposure to uranium production and
exploration in Australia (NT).
ERA is the world's sixth largest uranium producer, mining
at Ranger (NT) since 1981.
Ranger 3 Deeps exploration decline development
decision expected 3Q11 (75mlbs;10mt @ 0.34% U3O8).
Heap leach EIS expected 1H11; DFS 2011. Production
potential 2014. 15-20kt U3O8 resource. High capex and
water management issues cloud project outlook.
Earnings guidance 1H11 loss of -$20m to -$30m.
Ranger operating costs under review. New project
production outlook highly leveraged to environmental,
social and economic outcomes.
Jabiluka mining lease granted - subject to development
consent from traditional land owners. 12 year mine life.
NPV $6.30/share - outlook remains volatile.
5.8
9.4%
38.0
5.8
1.7P/CF (x)
30.0
Drilling - Other/Diamond (m)
7.9
CFPS (A¢/share)
ERA's share price outlook remains volatile. Ranger project
expansions, production and opex outlook highly leveraged to
environmental, social and economic outcomes over the next 12
months. Operations back online June '11 after 1H suspension.
2,481
12
2,655 4,576
15
141
28.0
53.2-62.4 11.4
7.0
315
3.1%
13.0
28.0
PER (x)
Yield (%)
16.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
2.9
39Dividends (A¢/share)
1.9%
8
Ranger No. 3 pit Measured and Ind.
4.60
Sub total
100%
Ranger No. 3 pit
Proved and Probable
100%
38.7
7.9
-
11.9
3.8
14,933 21,081
Equity
Code for reporting mineral resources - Australian:
Uranium
Exploration and Evaluation (A$m)
100% Uranium acid leach
Location
83
Metal
0.7%
7.0
Inferred
Stockpile
100%
100%
A$ 4.13
30,000
59
Mlb
2013F
EqtyU3O8
-
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
Jun
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
Oct
-10
No
v-10
Dec
-10
Jan
-11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Ma
y-11
Jun
-11
Sh
are
Pri
ce (
$/S
har
e)
ERA - Energy Resources of Australia Ltd
Source: Bloomberg
Overview: ERA has mined ore and produced uranium oxide at Ranger (NT) since 1981. Ranger has beenthe world's second largest uranium mine with normalised production of ~5.5ktpa of U3O8, equivalent to 12% of global uranium mine supply. ERA also holds title to the Jabiluka deposit 22km north of Ranger. Ranger No. 3: Ranger is an open cut mine scheduled to operate till year end 2012 after which stockpiled ore will be processed through to 2020 (mining and processing is due to cease under the current leasearrangement Jan 2021, followed by a 5 year rehab period). ERA is reviewing potential for a possible underground mine and heap leach. Heap leach – potential production 2014 (to treat additional 15k to 20kt U3O8 within current pit and on stockpiles) over 5-6 years; EIS expected 1H11. ERA indicates heap leach production (capacity: 9mtpa low grade ore) to supplement Ranger mill production levels beyond 2013 after mining ceases in pit 3. The capex requirement is expected to be quite high, in part due to high water run-off management issues associated with the large surface areas involved in heap leach – which could render the project returns unviable at current uranium prices. Process water management and treatment: The current water management capital program and brine concentrator DFS is budgeted at A$287m; and $367m if the brine concentrator is approved 1Q12. It is not clear the extent to which the current expansion of water management and treatment facilities will cover for the possible requirements of a heap leach and/or to Ranger 3 Deeps. Ranger 3 Deeps’ exploration decline board development decision has been postponed till 3Q11. Ranger 3 Deeps resource target is 15m-20mt containing 30k-40kt U3O8 - defined over 1.2km strike (open to the north) and 250m-500m depth. Resource statement includes ~34kt U3O8 associated with Ranger 3 Deeps.A decision on the exploration decline at Ranger 3 Deeps, appears in part to hinge on the Mirrar, whose support would be required during the EIS for an underground mine, and mining lease extension beyond 2021. The absence of a clear indication in advance by the Mirrar adds to ERA’s project risk in committing to the exploration decline. Jabiluka: The project remains on long term care and maintenance, and will not proceed without the consent of the traditional owners - the Mirrar. All regulatory permits are granted (some may need to be reviewed). We model mine production to commence by 2020, subject to approval. Investment Comment: ERA’s share price has fallen from a 12 month high of ~A$15/share impacted by the nuclear accident in Japan, heavy rainfall leading to suspension of operations at Ranger for much of 1H11, and deteriorating outlook for the company’s expansion projects, compounded by a significant increase in the AUD. The share price is likely to remain volatile, leveraged to company news flow on the advancement of new projects at Ranger and guidance on the related impact to costs for treatment of low grade stockpiles and rehabilitation at Ranger.
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 21
Energy Resources of Australia Ltd
A SS UM P T ION S 20 09a 2010 a 2011F 2012F 2013F F IN A N C IA L R A T IOS 2009a 2 010a 2 011F 2 012F 20 13F
A$/US$ 0.80 0.92 1.0 6 1.04 0.97
Uranium Price - Spot (US$/lb) 46 47 59 55 55 Net debt/equity (%) -32% -24% 0 % -9% -10%
Uranium Price - Contract (US$/lb) 66 61 6 7 61 60 Net debt/ net debt + equity (%) -47% -31% 0 % -9% -11%
Uranium Price Realised (US$/lb) 51 48 55 50 46 Current rat io (x) 3.1 3.4 4 .3 5.3 5.3
EBIT/ interest (x) 35 5 1 9 3
Debt/operat ing cashf low (%) 0% 0% 0 % 0% 0%
EQUIT Y P R OD UC T ION Explorat ion/total overhead (%) 68% 76% 69% 69% 69%
Ranger Product ion (t) 5,240 3,793 2 ,4 8 1 4,576 2,655 EV/EBITDA (x) 1.7 5.8 11.9 3.2 7.0
Jabiluka Product ion (t) 0 0 0 0 0 M arket cap/net cash (x) 3.1 4.2 - 72 1.3 11.7 9.8
ERA Equity Product ion U3O8 (t ) 5,240 3,793 2 ,4 8 1 4,576 2,655 M arket cap/book (x) 0.8 0.8 0 .8 0.8 0.7
Cash Costs (US$/lb) 17.87 41.51 4 2 .8 3 18.88 18.92
P R O F IT A N D LOSS (A $ m) F IN A N C IA L SE N SIT IVIT IES
Revenues 781 586 3 3 8 482 279
Operat ing costs -218 -352 - 2 0 6 -157 -99 % Change in EPS for a 10% increase in:
Depreciat ion/amort isat ion -67 -61 - 54 -107 -70
Explorat ion and evaluat ion -30 -38 - 2 8 -28 -28 AUD/USD 131% -38% -137%
Corporate -14 -12 - 12 -13 -13 Uranium Price -157% 48% 168%
Other -59 -48 - 2 5 -37 -26
EB IT 3 9 3 75 12 14 1 4 3
Finance costs 11 16 15 15 15 % Change in NPV for a 10% increase in forecast minelife
Oper at ing pro f it / loss 3 8 2 59 - 3 12 6 2 8 commodity assumptions for:
Tax -109 -12 - 11 -43 -13 B ase + 10 %
M inorit ies 0 0 0 0 0 A $/ share A $/ share %
N et p ro f it / loss 2 73 4 7 - 14 8 3 15 Uranium Price 6.32 9.53 51%
Net other 0 0 0 0 0
Net prof it / loss (reported) 273 47 - 14 83 15
B A LA N C E SH EET (A $ m) VA LUA T ION (A $ m) Q 2 11
C ash and dep osit s 2 54 18 8 - 1 6 7 8 0
Total current asset s 449 412 2 2 4 292 305 A ssumpt ions B ase " W hat if "
PP&E 4 70 54 0 6 59 6 77 6 70 Long Term Contract Uranium Price (from 2018) :US$/lb 55 70
Total non-current assets 910 1011 113 0 1149 1142 Long Term AUUS 0 .8 2 0.82
Total assets 1359 1423 13 54 1441 1447 Pro ject s
Total current liabilit ies 145 122 51 55 44 Ranger 100% NPV@10% US$5.30/ lb 3 4 9 950
Reclamation reserves 199 300 3 0 0 300 300 Jabiluka - factor 40% 100% NPV@10% US$2.94/ lb 4 3 8 1002
Lo ng t erm debt 0 0 0 0 0 R esources
Total non-current liabilit ies 247 351 3 51 351 351 Ranger 100% 241.6 mlb US$2.75/ lb 6 19 990
Total liabilit ies 393 472 4 0 2 405 394 Jabiluka - factor 40% 100% 163.0 mlb US$0.64/ lb 9 7 200
Equi t y 9 6 7 9 51 9 52 10 3 6 10 53 Explorat ion 55 85
A sset s
Tot al deb t 0 0 0 0 0 Cash and deposits 2 8 28
Net debt -254 -188 1 -67 -80 Rehabilitat ion Fund 0 0
Average shares (fully diluted) (m) 191 191 19 1 191 191 Other 0 0
Liab il i t ies
F LO W OF F UN D S (A $ m ) Debt 0 0
EB IT D A 4 6 0 13 6 6 6 2 4 8 113 Corporate - 8 0 -80
Cash f low from operat ing act ivit ies Reclaimation reserve - 3 0 0 -300
Operat ing surplus 560 224 12 8 324 177 N et A sset s 12 0 6 2 8 76
Corporate -14 -12 - 12 -13 -13
Net f inancing cost -1 -6 - 14 -13 -13 Fully Diluted Shares (m) 19 1 191
Net tax paid -132 -75 - 2 5 -33 -29 N et asset s/ share ( A $/ share) 6 .3 2 15.0 8
Net explorat ion paid -30 -38 - 2 8 -28 -28
Other non cash items -134 -51 2 7 17 17
N et cash f rom o perat ing act ivit ies 2 4 9 4 2 76 2 54 112 Valuat ion/Reserve lb :US$/lb 4 .6 1 10.98
Cash f low from invest ing act ivit ies Valuat ion/Reserve & Resource lb :US$/lb 1.6 0 3.81
Capital expenditure -37 -45 - 174 -125 -63
Other non cash items 0 0 0 0 0
N et cash f rom invest ing act ivit ies - 3 7 - 4 5 - 174 - 12 5 - 6 3 OWN E R Share %Cash f low from f inancing act ivit ies
Net proceeds from issue of shares 0 0 0 0 0 Rio Tinto 68
Dividends paid -65 -63 5 -29 -5
Net proceeds from borrowings 0 0 0 0 0
N et cash f rom f inancing act ivit ies - 6 5 - 6 3 5 - 2 9 - 5
Net change in cash 147 -66 - 9 3 100 44 R anger Product io n R ange
P R O D UC T ION ST A T IS T IC S
R ang er 10 0 %
Ore Treated (kt) 2268 2400 13 0 9 2600 2600
Head Grade (%) 0.26 0.19 0 .2 3 0.20 0.11
Recovery (%) 88 87 8 9 88 89
Recovered grade (%) 0.23 0.17 0 .19 0.18 0.10
U3O8 Produced (t) 5240 3793 2 4 8 1 4576 2655
Equi t y Product ion ( t ) 52 4 0 3 79 3 2 4 8 1 4 576 2 6 55
C ash C ost s ( U S$/ lb , est . ) 17.9 4 2 3 .14 3 0 .0 0 18 .8 8 18 .9 2
D IR EC T OR 'S IN T ER EST S Shares
Jab iluka 10 0 %
Ore Treated (kt) 0 0 0 0 0
Head Grade (%) 0.00 0.00 0 .0 0 0.00 0.00
Recovery (%) 0 0 0 0 0
Recovered grade (%) 0.00 0.00 0 .0 0 0.00 0.00
U3O8 Produced (t) 0 0 0 0 0
Equi t y Product ion ( t ) 0 0 0 0 0
C ash C ost s ( U S$/ lb ) 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0
Product ion Costs ($/t) 0.00 0.00 0 .0 0 0.00 0.00
Year YearYEAR END: Dec
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 22
Extract Resources Limited
10.80
Debt (A$m) - Jun 10F
Enterprise value (A$m)
Avg monthly volume (m)
Cash (A$m) - Jun 10F
Price/Cash (x) Cash (A$m)
Price/Book (x)
ASX/TSX lis ted options: Net asset backing (Ac/share)
*Uranium prospective tenements only, both held and under application.
Resources (includes Reserves)
Husab Zone 1+2
Husab Zones 1-5
Total Resources
Mineralised Material (est., non compliant w ith JORC)
Contacts Directors
Mr Jonathan Leslie S Galloway (Non Exec Chair)
(CEO & MD)
Tel: 61 (0) 8 9367 2111
South Perth, WA, Australia N. MacLachlan (Non Exec)
www.extractresources.com J Main (Non Exec)
A Clayton (Non Exec)
Partner
Alaskite
583.3 0.040 100
JV ProcessTarget
Early Expl.
0
Adv. Expl
0.0
Project
Namibia
LocationStatus
74.8
Project
84.6
100% uranium focus in Namibia. Expl'n/dev't budget
~A$60m pa, cash ~A$75m, production potential 2014.
Husab Uranium Project resource 488mlb @418ppm, the
world's fourth largest uranium-only resource.
Husab Project is a potential >600mlb uranium deposit.
DFS completed: targets 15mtpa, 15mlbpa uranium
operation, US$1,660m capex, US$28.50/lb opex. First
production possible in 1H14.
Chinese state-owned CGNPC has sought to gain control
of EXT through agreed bid for EXT parent, KAH.
Retracted CGNPC bid at A$10.61 share level - we think a
revised offer after 10 August at >A$9/share is likely.
A$9.00/share for EXT is equivalent to only ~US$3.95/lb
(Basis: 600mlb RCR Husab resource target), and
approximates our NAV assuming US$65/lb U3O8 price.
RIO unlikely to bid, will seek cooperative involvement?
25.8
Investment Points
9.2 Cash backing (Ac/share) 29.8
83.8
Key Projects
Namibia
100%
Namibia
2.5
0
Namibia
DFS
Mlb
101.9
74.8
Acid leach
92.2
Early Expl.
Alaskite
100
Type Route
Acid leach
0.046 100
0.0
na
na
Calcrete
U
U
17
No
(JORC)
Ownership/
28.8 32.8
Capital rais ings, net (A$m) **
0
34.5
MlbKt
Cut Off
63.0
270
- -
270
0.00
6.3
61.31
0
80,000
-
89.41
270
0.00
-
270
10.80
85
251.0
295,000
0.11.3
251.0
00
320,000
3.00
91
EXT.AU
1
Uranium
Namibia
Advanced exploration, DFS
Exchanges: ASX:EXT, TSX:EXT, NSX: EXT
Capital Profile
10.14
Share price (A$)
Exploration and evaluation (A$m)
Options and performance rights (m)
52 week range (A$/share) to
251Number of shares (m)
Fully diluted (m)
Major shareholders: Kalahari Uranium Ltd (42.8%), Rio Tinto Ltd (14.2%)
27 June 2011
7.68
5.96
0.0
Market capitalisation (undiluted) (A$m)
1928.0
1928.0
Convertible notes (m) 0 Exploration/(Expl.+ Corporate) (%)
252
Itochu Corporation (10.0%).
1.4
Ore U3O8
251.0
0
100% 0.02153.3
Company Comment
80.5
A$ 7.68
Production and Financial Forecasts
2011FJun-11F 2010aMar-11a 2011FYEAR END: June
75
43.23
8.10
Drilling - RC/Diamond (m)
0
77
243.2
273,198
84
Corporate (A$m)
60.0049.267.99 10.00
Funding duration at current burn (yrs)
Land holding ('000 ha)*
Drilling - RAB (m)
250.9Shares on issue (pr end) (m shares)
50,000
-
61.26
U
100%
86.5
0
74.8
Classification
Ida Dome
Husab 100%
Project Option
25.1
59.5 130.0
Equity Mt
100% 224.8
357.7163.3
Analyst: Dr Tony Parry100%
100%
I Zaamwani-Kamwi (Non Exec)
J Leslie (CEO & MD)
R Chamberlain (Non Exec)
Uis
Hildenhof
25.1
0.0
234.2
Alaskite
512.8
11.4 Ida Dome Ind & Inferred
224.8Probable
Uranium
100205.0 0.050
noneU
none
none
Metal
none
Meas & Ind. 100% 355.0
512.8
% ppm
357.7
Extract Resources Limited
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised Material
U3O8 U3O8 U3O8 Eqty
Code for reporting mineral resources - Australian:
270
Funding from JV partners (A$m)
2.64
0
130.0Inferred 175.0 0.034 100
We expect that China's CGNPC will come back for another tilt at
EXT's 42.8% shareholder, Kalahari, at a 'flow through' level for EXT
of at least A$9.00/share, given the huge strategic potential of EXT's
Husab resource (DFS completed, potential >600mlb resource).
70.1
Reserves
Husab Zones 1+2
Tenement costs ($k per year)
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
Jun
-10
Aug
-10
Sep
-10
Oct
-10
No
v-1
0
Dec
-10
Jan
-11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jun
-11
Sh
are
Pri
ce (
$/S
har
e)
EXT – Extract Resources Limited
Source: Bloomberg
Overview: EXT’s Husab Project in Namibia (discovered Feb 2008) is the world’s fourth largest uranium deposit, located immediately south of the Rössing uranium mine (RIO 69%). Exploration is advancingtowards a ~600mlb U3O8 total resource, based on new targets for additional zones, which would make it the world’s second biggest in situ uranium-only resource. Envisaged mine production of 15mlbpa U3O8,
would make it the world’s third biggest uranium mine based on 2015 global mine projections. Husab Uranium Project – Status: Total resource currently is 488mlb contained U3O8 at 418ppm. The recently completed DFS is based on open pit development only of zones 1 and 2 (Probable Reserves of 205mt @ 497ppm for 225mlb U3O8). Including 25mlb Ida Dome resource total is now 513mlb. Total Resource Target: Resource drilling is on-going, focusing on a fifth discovery zone (Zone 5 SE of Zone 4) and Middle Dome (~1km S of Zone 5), which we think will create additional resources to push total resources towards 600mlb contained U3O8. Furthermore, >40% of the ~14km prospective Rössing S trend from Zone 1 to Salem in the South remains to be explored. Recent intercepts of mineralisation further South (outside the Rössing S anticline) at Pizzaro, indicate there will be plenty of additional targets to further increase the resource base beyond our projected 600mlb level. Husab DFS and Further Project Optimisation: The much anticipated DFS for the Husab Project was released during 2Q11. Key data from the DFS is summarised in the table on following page. The total capex of US$1,659m (including pre-strip) was not a surprise, but the forecast opex of US$28.50/lb (pre royalties) was, given the original Scoping Study forecast of US$23.60/lb. The project is still highly viable at the current long term prices around US$70/lb (it would be viable at <US$50/lb), but not quite as attractive as the Scoping Study indicated. EXT has commenced further optimisation work, predominantly finer grind sizes and elevated leach temperatures, to increase recoveries and lower $/lb opex. The recent resource update after intensive infill resource drilling in Zones 1 and 2 now suggests a mine life > 20 years. RCR Valuation: Our assessed NAV for EXT is A$7.27/share (f. dil.) using the DFS data for Husab, assuming long term uranium forecast of US$60/lb, A$/US$ = 0.82. Using US$70/lb long term price would raise assessed NAV to A$10.78/share. Corporate Developments: The much publicised withdrawal of the “possible” friendly bid from the State-owned China Guandong Nuclear Power Group (CGNPC) for Kalahari Minerals plc (AIM:KAH; EXT’s 42.79% major shareholder) at £2.90/share was due to the UK Takeovers Panel blocking a proposed lower bid after the Japanese earthquake/tsunami disaster. The original bid, at the time, equated to a ‘flow through’ of A$10.61 per EXT share (or ~US$4.70/lb based on our target 600Mlb resource). Given the long term strategic value of Husab, and the KAH board’s cards now on the table in terms of monetising their gains, we think it is likely CGNPC will come back with a revised offer after the statutory three months wait before a lower bid can be tabled for KAH. CGNPC would be clear to lodge a lower bid after 10 August 2011. Interestingly, they had sought to lower their first bid to £2.70/share, which equates to A$9.56 per EXT share. Why wouldn’t CGNPC come back with a bid for KAH priced at least at A$9.00/share equiv. for EXT? This would be US$3.95/lb based on our 600mlb Husab resource target, and is our NAV discounting ~US$65/lb LT uranium price. KAH shareholders should still be keen to cash in at that level (£2.55/share). Investment Comment: We think CGNPC is likely to lodge a revised bid for control of EXT at a level of >A$9/share, after the mandatory wait period, and will also be required to bid for EXT. As such, the shares currently present value. Our NAV assuming US$70/lb l.t. uranium (A$=US$0.82) is A$10.78/share.
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 23
Our EXT valuation is based DCF modelling of the Husab Uranium Project @ 10% nominal discount rate, based on DFS parameters. The Base Case uses US$60/lb long term uranium price (A$/US$ = 0.82), while
the ‘High’ valuation (A$10.78/share) is based on US$70/lb long term uranium price.
EXTRACT HUSAB PROJECT NPV VALUATION
Base
Reserves/ Case ^ (Low) (High)
Resources Valuation A$m A$m A$m
Projects (Mlbs) US$/lb
+ Husab Uranium Project Zones 1 & 2 (NPV @ 10%) * 225 (actual) 4.11 872 412 1332+ Ida Dome (25Mlb confirmed resource) 25 (actual) 2.00 47 33 71
+Further resource potential (Additional Zones)** 350 (RCR target) 2.50 825 578 1238
Sub Total 600 3.08 1745 1023 2641
+ Cash (Jun '11F) 74.8 74.8 74.8+ Tax Losses 40.3 40.3 40.3
- Corporate 31.8 31.8 31.8
Sub Total 83.3 83.3 83.3
EXT NET ASSET VALUE 1828 1106 2724
Capital Structure
Shares 251.0 251.0 251.0
Fully Diluted Shares 252.6 252.6 252.6
EXT NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE :A$/share 7.28 4.41 10.85EXT NET ASSET VALUE DILUTED :A$/share fully diluted 7.24 4.38 10.78
IMPLIED 600Mlb TARGET RESOURCE VALUATION :US$/lb 3.23 1.95 4.81* NPV of Husab Project is based on DFS parameters including current total of only 225Mlb Reserves - see below.
** Exploration target is based on further potential outside zones 1 and 2
^ Target price based on RCR forecast long term uranium contract price US$60/lb; A$/US$ = 0.82. Low = US$50/lb, High = US$70/lb l. term price.
HUSAB URANIUM PROJECT NPV (DFS, April 2011, Zones 1+2, 225Mlb mineable reserve, 16 year mine life, 15Mlbpa U3O8)
EquityLOW TARGET HIGH
LONG TERM URANIUM PRICE^ :US$/lb 40 50 60 70 80
LONG TERM EXCHANGE RATE :AU$/US$ 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82
HUSAB URANIUM NPV @ 10% NOMINAL :A$m 100% -49 412 872 1332 1791HUSAB URANIUM NPV @ 10% NOMINAL :US$m 100% -40 338 715 1092 1469NPV/SHARE :A$/share -0.19 1.64 3.47 5.31 7.14
Husab Project NPV's are nominal NPV's, based on DFS data, using 10% discount rate. 0%
^ Uranium long term contract price forecasts are based on flat US$65/lb until 4Q17, then long term price kicks in
HUSAB URANIUM PROJECT KEY ASSUMPTIONS - based on April 2011 DFS*
RESOURCE ESTIMATESBasis: Current Probable Uranium Reserves - Zones 1 & 2 only
Mt % Mlbs
Husab Zones 1 & 2
Probable Reserves 205 0.0497 224.8Total ore mined 205 0.0497 224.8
MINING METHOD Two Open Pits to 412m (Zone 1) and 330m (Zone 2) depth, LOM strip ratio 7.0:1
Conventional truck and shovel
PROCESS METHOD Dedicated Uranium Plant
Conventional sulphuric acid agitated tank leach (same as Rössing mine)Ion exchange, solvent extraction, precipitation, drying.
PRODUCTION RATE :Mtpa 15.0
:Mlbspa U3O8 15.0
CAPITAL COSTS :US$m 1480 Plus sustaining capex of US$20mpa (US$1.33/t).
RECOVERY - URANIUM :% 90
OPERATING COSTS :US$/t 28.50 (unescalated)
:US$/lb 28.50 (US$32.00/lb incl. royalties, marketing, transport)
TAX :% 35.0
ROYALTIES :% 3.0
MINE LIFE :Years 16 based only on current Zone 1 & 2 reserve
TARGET COMMISSION DATE : 1H14
* These figures are based on DFS data released in April 2011. Considerable refinement may result from the Mine Optimisation and Resource Extension Programme
("M.O.R.E.") which is underway for the Husab Uranium project. June 2011 resource update suggests mine life >20 years.
Valuation Sensitivity
Sensitivity
Uranium
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 24
Greenland Minerals and Energy Limited
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 25
Kvanefjeld and exploration targets, southern Greenland: there is considerable potential to extend the current resource (incl. 350mlbs U3O8 and 6.6mt of rare earth oxides). Drilling 2011 (15,000m, 3 diamond
rigs); Zone 2 and 3 targeting high grade, near surface tonnage; and initial drilling at Steenstrupfjeld.
Development schedule for Kvanefjeld: The updated PFS is expected in 2Q11. The Greenland Gov’t has
given permission for a DFS, which should include pilot and demonstration level processing plants. Production is possible in 2015.
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 26
Peninsula Energy Limited
0.16
Debt (A$m) - Jun 11F
Enterprise value (A$m)
Avg monthly volume (m)
Cash (A$m) - Jun 11F
. Cash (A$m)
Price/Book (x)
Listed company options:* Net asset backing (Ac/share)
* PENOA (3c, exp 30 June 2012); PENOC (3c, exp 31 December 2015). *Uranium prospective tenements only, both held and under application. Quarters refer to calendar year.
^ Ross Permit Area includes a Vanadium resource (MII): 2.33mlbs V2O
5 grading 0.0196%.
Contacts Directors
Mr. John (Gus) Simpson
Executive Chairman
Tel: 61 (0) 8 9380 9920
West Perth, WA, Australia
PENOA, PENOC
Karoo - Site 45
Total Lance*
74%
Historic 0.4
2.8
20.3
15.2
Status
4.8
Aus (WA)
US (WY)
0.041
74%
Mineralised Material (est., non compliant w ith JORC)
www.pel.net.au M Barton (Non Exec Dir)
ISR
J Simpson (Chairman)
M James (Non Exec Dir)
W Grigor (Non Exec Dir) 100% na
Project
Roll front
A Marlow (Non Exec Dir)
Type
J Cornell (Exec Dir)Analyst: John Wilson
Western Australia 100%
Raki Raki
S'stone
Karoo - Site 29
Karoo Projects
Ownership/
BEE74%
HistoricKaroo - Site 22
1.0
U3O8 Eq
Lance Uranium Projects
1.5
3.9
RoutePartner
0
9.1Capital raisings (A$m)
Funding from JV partners (A$m)
Cash backing (Ac/share)
0.0
0
Mid Expl. S. Africa
PFS
6.1
0
8.2
Early Expl.
Project
26.0
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised Material
Key Projects
41.4
U3O8
Process
2.1
200
2.2
6.9
acid
20.3
1.3
0.3
Target
0.6
41.4
* Inferred Resource is 30.2mlbs grading 0.042% U3O
8. Measured and Indicated Resources are 11.25mlbs U
3O
8 grading 0.045%.
3.7
3.6
Focused on uranium - CY11 exploration and evaluation
budget A$11m.
Lance: PFS (Lyntek, Jul '10) potential production 2012 at
1.5mlbspa U3O8; C1 opex US$19.88/lb or US$13.52/lb
with Vn credit; initial capex US$53m (total US$79.2m).
Lance mine permits and EIS lodged Dec '10. DFS
expected 3Q11. Construction 2H11. LOM 13 years.
Deep disposal test well permit granted (WDEQ, Apr '11).
Additional resource target is 95-145mlb U3O8 grading
0.036-0.05%.
Initial forward sales contract (Feb '11): 1.15mlbs
U3O8, priced at ~US$70/lb, 7 year term.
Key strategic alliance with NuCore Energy (June '11)
and appointment of Jim Cornell to the Board.
Karoo Project: shallow, high grade uranium and moly
confirmed (1H11) from surface to 80m (Site 22).
Intercepts include 6.6ft @ 0.36% U3O8 and 0.26% Mo.
2012 resource target 30mlb U3O8.
Lance - Barber
Reserves
50%
Historic
Lance - Ross
various
JV
Option
U (Mo)
Metal
9.2
0.111
Location
100%
5.4 2000.050
6.0
Investment Points
2.0
M,I,I
Company Comment
4.7
15.216.5
Ore
0.076
44.5
74%
0.146
208
Fully diluted (m)
157.0
Au Mid Expl.
26.0
Tenement costs ($k per year)
Land holding ('000 ha)*
Drilling - RAB (m) 0
40,000
-
%
Cut Off
ppm
40.0
26.2
0
U na
U
65
2530.9
0
52,857
272
2.11.4
Shares on issue (pr end) (m shares)
3040
0.0
Market capitalisation (undiluted) (A$m)
Major shareholders: Pala Investment Holdings (13.96%) 272
-
Corporate (A$m)
4.60
1.10
Performance shares (m)
YEAR END: June
22.7
Funding duration at current burn (years)
Drilling - Other/Diamond (m)
Share price (A$)
Number of shares (m) 2093
Options and warrants (m)
0.075
0.03
PEN.AU
900
Uranium, Molybdenum, Gold
USA (WY), South Africa, Australia (WA), Fiji
Prefeasibility Study
Exchanges: ASX:PEN
Capital Profile
52 week range (A$/share) to
27 June 2011
Equity
(JORC)
31.3
1.2
Project
Kt
1.2
Mt
3.8
0.0
26.0
46 Exploration/(Expl.+ Corporate) (%)
100%
M,I,I
0.041
157.0
20,000
0
0.042 200
eU3O8
35.415.4
0.0
75
0.5
2086.5 2086.51628.1
7381
2012FJun-11F 2010aMar-11a 2011F
4.913.81
13.56
4.401.56
Peninsula Energy Limited
PEN is approaching a production decision at Lance ISR project in WY.
Resource 41mlbs U3O8 (+25%, Jun '11). DFS 3Q11. Production potential
2012. A$15m conditional financing announced at 50% premium to
market with strategic investor NuCore Energy (June '11).
11.57 8.002.55Exploration and evaluation (A$m)
A$ 0.075
Production and Financial Forecasts
10,000
0
62
2086.5
272
3.8
272
eU3O8eU3O8
-
Mlb
0
10,000
0.4
2.9
-
272
-
Lance - Ross Permit Area^ 100%
0
7.1
0.0
ASX:GPR
na
Fiji
Resources
Mlb
Uranium
Code for reporting mineral resources - Australian:
M,I,I
18.8
na na
Classification
2.7 5.9 5.9
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
Jun
-10
Aug
-10
Sep
-10
Oct-
10
No
v-1
0
Dec-1
0
Jan
-11
Feb-1
1
Ma
r-11
May-1
1
Jun
-11
Sh
are
Pri
ce
($/S
hare
)
PEN - Peninsula Energy Limited
Source: Bloomberg
Overview: Formerly Peninsula Minerals (name change Nov ’10), PEN is listed on the ASX and has operated under the current management team since 2007 when key US projects were vended into the company. Lance Uranium Project (USA, WY): Located in the northeast part of the Powder River Basin comprises 13 project areas (12,000 ha) including the Ross and Barber prospects - targeting roll front style uranium. The project area was discovered in the ‘70’s by JV partners Nuclear Dynamics and Bethlehem Steel (NuBeth) and drilled between 1970 and 1979. NuBeth drilled 5000 holes (912,000m). PEN acquired the project 2H07 with a database of drilling and pilot plant data (from Ur-Energy). 22 roll fronts have been defined over a combined strike length of 305km (190 miles) containing 13 project areas with drill defined mineralization. PFS (Lyntek) July 2010 confirms development potential for satellite production and a centralised processing plant at Ross from 4Q12 with capacity to produce up to 3mlbspa U3O8, commencing at 1.5mlbpa. Initial production is targeted from Ross and Barber. Lance project resource target is 95 to 145mlbs U3O8 – in addition to current JORC resource. PEN drilling 2H11 is aimed at uplifting resources at Barber (one rig) to support feed to the processing plant and establishing additional resource areas outside Ross-Barber. The outlook for permitting in Wyoming is positive: Uranium One (TSX:UUU) received its NRC operating license (Oct ’10) for Moore Ranch; and 2 other companies (TSX: URE, URZ) are expecting NRC permits in 2011. URE received a draft Source and Byproduct Materials License from the NRC Jan ’11; URZ Permit to Mine (WDEQ) received Jan ’11. PEN’s UIC – deep disposal well permit (for 5 test wells, Apr ‘11) is a significant step towards mining and confirms a level of confidence by the WDEQ in the company’s technical approach. Karoo Project (South Africa): Located in the Karoo Basin of the Western, Eastern and Northern Cape Provinces; tenements comprise 6 project areas (198,000 ha) with defined U-Mo mineralisation across stacked sandstone units identified from surface to 40m. The region hosts Areva’s historic Ryst Kuil uranium mine (est. 40mlbs @ 0.1% U3O8). Three of PEN’s project areas host historic resources drilled by JCI and Union Carbide (~1,300 holes) in 1970-80’s which defined high mineralisation grades of 0.07 to 0.14% U3O8. PEN has an exploration target of 90 – 150mlbs U3O8 grading 0.07 to 0.14%. Drill results (1H11) confirm high grade uranium and molybdenum from surface to ~75m depth: intercepts include 6.6ft @ 0.36% U3O8 and 0.26% Mo; and 6.6ft @ 0.31% U3O8 and 0.25% Mo. Mid-term resource target 30mlbs grading 0.07 to 0.14% U3O8 (2012). Investment Comment: PEN is on-track for completing the Lance DFS and timely permitting of its WY based ISR project, with production visibility 4Q12. The “nuclear renaissance” is expected to regain momentum, notwithstanding recent events in Japan. PEN base case NPV, with full de-risking of Lance post commissioning, is A$0.095/share fully diluted (at US$50/lb realised uranium price, AUD/USD 0.80 and 10% discount rate). At US$60/lb U3O8, post commissioning, NPV rises to A$0.12/share fully diluted (and at US$70/lb, A$0.14/share). The NuCore Energy strategic alliance and conditional A$15m placement (at a 50% market premium, announced June ’11) adds confidence to project status and positions PEN for the next phase (post DFS) of project financing and development. WY is a uranium friendly state, and is well positioned to fast track regulatory approvals.
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 27
Base
Resource Base NPV Adjusted
Equity Val'n NPV Factor Value
(%) (US$/lb) (A$m) (%) (A$m)
Assumptions
Realised Uranium Price : US$/lb 50 50 40 60 70 80
Exchange rate: AUUS 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80
Projects
Lance project : NPV @10% 100% 7.09 166 75% 125 88 162 200 237
Resources and Exploration
Lance (resource est. +100%) : NPV @10% 100% 3.73 88 75% 66 49 82 98 113
Karoo/other 10 10 5 7 12 15
Sub-total Exploration 98 76 54 89 110 128
Assets
+ Cash 26 26 26 26 26 26
+ Tax Losses 6 6 6 6 6 6
Liabilities
- Debt 0 0 0 0 0 0
- Corporate 36 36 36 36 36 36
- Reclamation 0 0 0 0 0 0
PEN Net Assets 260 197 138 247 306 362
Fully diluted shares (m) 3039.8 3039.8 3039.8 3039.8 3039.8 3039.8
Cash on Option Conversion 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2
PEN Net Asset Value per share : A$/share 0.12 0.094 0.066 0.118 0.146 0.173
PEN Net Asset Value Diluted : A$/share dil 0.095 0.074 0.055 0.091 0.110 0.128
Sensitivity of Net Asset Value to Equity Raising Price:
PEN Net Asset Value (assuming A$40m capex raised through share issue at A$0.07) 0.066 0.049 0.080 0.096 0.111
PEN Net Asset Value (assuming A$40m capex raised through share issue at A$0.06) 0.064 0.048 0.077 0.093 0.108
PEN Net Asset Value (assuming A$40m capex raised through share issue at A$0.05) 0.062 0.046 0.075 0.090 0.105
RESOURCE ESTIMATES
Uranium Resource Grade Uranium
Cutoff Mlbs
Resource (M,I,I) Lance 200ppm 41.4 (as at June 2011)
RCR modelling assumptions Lance 200ppm 18.8
MINING METHOD IN-SITU RECOVERY (ISR)
PROCESS METHOD CENTRALISED URANIUM PLANT
1. Ion exchange and vanadium circuit
2. Potential satellite facilities
RESOURCE CONVERSION :% 40-60% (Inferred to Indicated or better)
TONNAGE DILUTION :% na
GRADE UPLIFT :% 6
BASE CASE ASSUMPTIONS
PRODUCTION RATE :tpa na
AVERAGE HEAD GRADE - U3O8 :% na
HIGH GRADE :% na
RECOVERY - URANIUM :% 76 PFS: 80% recovery in-situ; then 95% plant recovery
URANIUM PLANT CAPACITY :mlbspa 3.00 Assumes expanded resource base (not included in base case NPV)
INITIAL URANIUM PRODUCTION :mlbspa 1.50 Production rate based on PFS resources
VANADIUM PRODUCTION :mlbspa 1.20
CAPITAL COSTS - INITIAL DEVELOPMENT :US$m 53
CAPITAL COSTS - TOTAL :US$m 79
OPERATING COSTS: (C1) :US$/lb 19.88
less by-product credit :US$/lb 6.36 PFS assumes vanadium production of 1.2mlbspa; price US$7.50/lb.
(C2) :US$/lb 21.42
(C3) :US$/lb 30.02
TAX :% 30
ROYALTY :% 6
MINE LIFE :Years 13 Years
COMMISSION PROJECT : 4Q 2012 36 month ramp-up.
These figures are preliminary in nature and are intended to provide only a general indication of project scale and economic robustness. Considerable
refinement may result from subsequent feasibility studies, expected to be completed in 3Q11.
Includes sustaning capex of US$13.5m and US$2m for permitting and land
acquisition.
44.5 0.041
18.5 0.046
LANCE URANIUM PROJECT KEY ASSUMPTIONS (derived from PEN PFS (Lyntek) - July 2010)
Tonnes
Mt % U3O8
PFS includes vanadium circuit: production ratio V2O5:U3O8 0.8:1.
Cogema's Crowe Butte project recovers vanadium through IX circuit.
PENINSULA ENERGY LIMITED VALUATION
Adjusted
Uranium Price Sensitivity
(A$m)
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 28
Toro Energy Limited
0.18
Debt (A$m) - Jun 11F *
Enterprise value (A$m)
Avg monthly volume (m)
Cash (A$m) - Jun 11F
Price/Cash (x) Cash (A$m) *
Price/Book (x)
Listed company options: Net asset backing (Ac/share)
^ Uranium tenements held or applied for
Reserves
Resources
Wiluna: L. Way & C'pede Meas Ind & Inf.
Dawson-Hinkler Well Inferred
Mineralised Material (est., non compliant with JORC)
Total Mineralised (non JORC)
Contacts Directors
Mr Greg Hall
Managing Director
Tel: 61 (0) 8 8132 5600
Norwood, SA, Australia D. Carter (Non Exec Dir)
A Coles (Non Exec Dir) OZL/MNT IOCGU
Cameco Unc+S'stone
Route
Early Expl.
na
na
Calc/Alask25% na
100% Alk. LeachCalcretenone
Analyst: Dr Tony Parry
100% uranium focus. Expl. + Eval. budget ~A$20m pa.
Cash ~A$25m (Jun '11F) to fund Wiluna BFS, Wiluna
resource expansion and exploration/acquisitions.
Wiluna resource consolidation strategy has significantly
enhanced Wiluna Project value; resource equity grown
from 24mlb to nearly 40mlb U3O8 at ~A$1/lb cost.
Wiluna BFS underway, draft EIS lodged, resource
upgrade expected soon.
Potential Wiluna production mid 2013: ~2.0mtpa ore,
alkaline tank leach, A$260m capex, ~2.2mlbpa output.
Wiluna could be a pacesetter as the first of the WA
calcrete projects underway.
TOE has ambitious target of 100mlb resources by 2015.
This means exploration and acquistions are likely to play
an increasing role in the medium term.
Cashed-up OZL could bankroll Australian/overseas
acquisitions to reach TOE's stated resource target.
www.toroenergy.com.au
G. Hall (MD)
J. Nitschke (Non Exec Dir)
P. Lester (Non Exec Dir)
E Smyth (Non Ex. Ch'man) JV /
Option Metal
24.6
U3O8
2.9
Investment Points
0.7
No
Type
Cash backing (Ac/share)
00
U3O8Project
54.5
Project
29.70
12.5
5.6
12.3
Mlb
0.0467
0.0
Uranium
Code for reporting mineral resources - Australian:
Classification U3O8
2.8
Capital raisings (A$m)
0
24.6
0
Mt
Company Comment
Equity % ppm
U3O8
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised Material(JORC)
U DYL
U
23
Fully diluted (m)
U
Ore
85
-
0.51.3
4,690
-
15,500
964.9
11,500 8,000
11.7
24.632.2
3.3
11.2
2.6
Drilling - RAB (m) 20,000
-
964.9
3,500
964.9
2,000
4,000
Tenement costs ($k per year)
Land holding ('000 ha) ^
70.4
985
HSBC Nominees (1.5%), Allarrow Pty Ltd (1.0%)
0.0
Junket capitalisation (undiluted) (A$m)
Major shareholders: OZ Minerals Ltd (42.5%), ANZ Nominees (2.3%),
0.70Corporate (A$m)
Jun-11F
0.22
Convertible notes (m)
0.07
0.0652 week range (A$/share)
TOE.AU
20
Uranium
Australia (WA,NT,SA), Namibia
BFS and Exploration
Exchanges: ASX:TOE
Capital Profile
to
Number of shares (m) 965
27 June 2011
Share price (A$)
Shares on issue (pr end) (m shares)
Funding from JV partners (A$m)
Drilling - RC/Sonic/Diamond (m)70.4
0 Exploration/(Expl.+ Corporate) (%)
Funding duration at current burn (years)
Options and warrants (m)
964.9
6.3
82
YEAR END: June
93
3.20
Mar-11a
Exploration and evaluation (A$m) 3.07
9.8
2011F
Toro Energy Limited
With TOE's regional Wiluna (WA) resource base edging towards
40mlb, focus will now be on the BFS (due 4Q11) for this A$260m,
2.2mlbpa project. Meanwhile, the Toro team has ambitions to
create a much bigger company via exploration and acquisitions.
A$ 0.073
Production and Financial Forecasts
2012F2010a
9.46
4,690
14.0016.04
2.843.51
73
4.2
3.20
81
15,500
4,2254,690 4,690
-
0.00.0
20.2100%
100%
Key Projects
Ownership/
U
100%
Wiluna
none
9.50
Early Expl.na
0.0
Target
6.2
Palaeo/IOCG
Partner
Kt
Cut Off
Process
Status
Project
11.1
13.85
0.0293
0.0548 200
200 2.8
0.0
Early Expl. Aus (SA)
Aus (SA)
0.0
24.4
0.0
U
Lake Mackay
Namibia
Mount Woods 100% U rights
Birrindudu 50.01%
30.630.6
NamibiaEarly Expl.
0.0
BFS Aus (WA)
Total Resources
Mlb
Eqty
0.0
24.4
Aus (WA)
Location
6.2
8.3
* Jun 11F cash assumes A$4.5m Norilsk payment 2Q11.
964.9
15,000
0.0
2,000
60.6
-
0
1.0
13.2
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
Jun
-10
Aug
-10
Sep
-10
Oct
-10
No
v-1
0
Dec
-10
Jan
-11
Fe
b-11
Ma
r-11
May
-11
Jun
-11
Sh
are
Pri
ce (
$/S
ha
re)
TOE - Toro Energy Limited
Source: Bloomberg
Overview: TOE listed on the ASX in March ‘06 and is a pacesetter in advancing calcrete style uranium projects in Australia. Wiluna is at BFS stage and could be WA’s first new uranium producing project. Toro’s Aspirational Targets: TOE has ambitious growth targets: 100mlb U3O8 resources by 2015 (currently 30mlb) and production of 5.5mlbpa by 2020. Meeting these will require TOE (supported by major shareholder Oz Minerals - ~A$1.4bn cash) to look beyond the current core asset at Wiluna. Wiluna Regional Resource Consolidation: We have previously highlighted the potential for TOE to increase its Wiluna resource base in a 40km radius of Wiluna, with strategic acquisitions/alliances. TOE has now achieved this to great affect. The acquisition of the Firestrike discovery in 4Q09 was the first step. Then came the purchase of 100% of the Dawson-Hinkler Well calcrete uranium project (20km W of Centipede) from U3O8 Ltd (ASX:UTO). The final key piece of the Wiluna jigsaw puzzle is about to be put in place with the imminent completion of the purchase of a uranium mineralised zone called Millipede, bordering TOE’s Centipede deposit. The purchase consideration is pitched at a similar level (~A$1.00/lbresource) to the Dawson-Hinkler Well acquisition. These acquisitions at ~A$1/lb are very cheap by international benchmark standards. Our modelling suggest this regional consolidation could increase forecast Wiluna Project NPV by ~A$25m (~2.6cps) if it provides an additional 5-6 year’s mine life. Wiluna BFS: A PFS was completed Sep ’08, followed by Optimistation Study in Sep ’09. The BFS, based on the original 24mlb, 550ppm resource, 2.2mlbpa production, 10 year mine life, is now underway. The Environmental Management Review Program/Draft EIS (a milestone for WA U projects) was lodged with the EPA (WA) in March 2011. This triggers the important public exhibition phase. Resource drilling is on-going to upgrade a large part of the resource from Indicated to Measured during 2H11. Recent deeper drilling at Lake Way has identified higher grade mineralisation (>1,000ppm) at around 10m depth, which is positive. Bench scale testing of the proposed agitated chloride alkaline leach followed by direct precipitation (avoiding solvent extraction) has yielded good results. A pilot plant test program will commence in Jun ’11. The BFS should be completed in 4Q11, which could see a go-ahead decision and financing (possibly with a strategic partner) in 1H12, potential production in 2H13. Other Exploration: Lake Mackay (WA): Theseus discovery is promising - potential buried palaeochannel – will need to wait until 3Q11 for drilling due to wet season. TOE has extensive U exploration portfolio in SA, NT, WA and Namibia (~43,000km
2). Mount Woods (SA): TOE has 100% U
rights for OZL’s currently aggressive exploration for IOCGU targets – recent promising U-only hits. Investment Comment: We think that TOE’s ambitions in the uranium sector go beyond Wiluna, which is the company’s first production project and a WA pacesetter. TOE’s talented team, with possible support from cash rich major shareholder Oz Minerals, is likely to look to project acquisitions, as well as maintaining focus on its extensive exploration ground, to generate a much increased uranium market presence, and increased shareholder value. The Toro team really knows its way around the uranium market, and that could well be an increasing source of excitement, and upside, for Toro’s shareholders in coming quarters, when we will also see the Wiluna BFS released.
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 29
Toro is expecting its strategic grass roots uranium exploration holdings in Northern Territory, South Australia, Western Australia and Namibia (JV with DYL) to play an important role in its ambitious plans to
achieve a resource base of 100mlb contained U3O8 by 2015.
Toro’s value-enhancing strategy of building Wiluna into a significant uranium production hub over the past year has meant that the consolidated regional resource target is now approaching 40mlb (r.h.graph), a big increase from the 24mlb original Lake Way/Centipede resource. Additional resources have been acquired at a very cost effective ~A$1/lb. This will give a significant boost to the Wiluna NPV and project viability.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
3Q10a 4Q10a 2Q11F
Wil
un
a R
eg
ion
al
Re
so
urc
e B
as
e (
mlb
U3O
8)
Lake Way-Centipede Dawson-Hinkler Well
Millipede Firestrike/Albion Downs
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 30
Ur-Energy Inc
3.35
Debt (A$m) - Jun 11F
Enterprise value (C$m)
Major shareholders:
Avg monthly volume (m)
Cash (C$m) - Jun 11F
Price/Cash (x) Cash (C$m)
Price/Book (x)
Listed company options: Net asset backing (C¢/share)
* Quarters are stated on calendar year basis. "F" indicates RCR forecast.
Lost Soldier
Lost Soldier
Total
Mineralised Material* (est., non compliant w ith NI 43-101)
Contacts Directors
T Parker
JM Franklin
P Macdonell
0.037
100%
sandstone
JV
na
0.170 na
No
100% naU
Option
Investment Points
25%
100%Nebraska [email protected] (CN)
U3O8
1.5 3.3
WY (US)Development
Project
WY (US)
Status
Adv. Expl.
0.0
2.0
Type
na
31.7
Resources*
100/25%
Inferred
300
1.5
4.0
0.44
U
33.0
U3O8 Eqty
100%
4.8
Option
Lost Creek
Ownership/
73.8 74.0
Project Metal
Process
0.065
na
Mr Wayne Heili
0.8
36
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised Material
Classification
34.1
URE is focused on uranium in Wyoming, where it holds
resources (equity) of 25.6mlbs U3O8.
Lost Creek ISR planned rate 1mlbspa U3O8 with mill
capacity 2mlbspa, low opex of US$19.66/lb, pre-
production capex $35.1m (spent $24m to date).
Lost Creek exploration upside on adjacent blocks.
Resource upgrade and step-out drilling 2H11.
Wyoming is considered uranium friendly and has ISR
mines at Highlands/Smith Ranch (CCO).
Grassroots exposure to unconformity style uranium
targets in the Thelon and Baker Lake Basins, CAN, and
sandstone hosted deposits in Nebraska.
Potential for return to +C$2.50/share at U3O8 US$55/lb.
Resource upside potential (over 4 projects) could be to
88mlbs U3O8 based on historic estimates.
Key Projects
Target
sandstone WY (US)
Littleton, Colorado
EN (Eagles Nest) 100%
sandstone
Indicated
Analyst: John Wilson
Tel: 1 (720) 981 4588
LC North and South
Lost Soldier
Lost Creek
Bootheel
Ownership/
8.6 3000.049
* Lost Creek Resource calculated by polygonal method. Resource by GT contour method (used for March 2011 Preliminary
Assessment economic analysis) is 5.22mlbs grading 0.055% U3O
8 Measured and Indicated, 0.78mlbs grading 0.051% Inferred.
^Reminder that units are metric (tonnes).
Inferred
ISR
Location
ISR
Route
WY (US)Permttingsandstone
U
WW Heili Partner
naWW Boberg
Thelon Bas in
ISR
ISR Adv. Expl.25%
unconform. na Early Expl.
170.9
Black Rock Inc (16.2%)
Market capitalisation (undiluted) (C$m)
U
Uranium
11
0.0 Cash backing (C¢/share)
Bootheel
0
Hauber Indicated
Ore
100%
100% 2.0
Inferred
Reserves
Lost Creek
80,000
26
0Drilling - RAB (m)
Mt^ U3O8
Land holding ('000 ha)
0.0
34.1
30.2
39
Shares on issue (pr end) (m shares)
4.5
105103
57
3.5
26
3.0
94
0
105
0
103
80,000
URE.CN
Capital Profile
2010aYear End: December
1.15
20,000 80,00020,000
0
Exploration/(Expl.+ Corporate) (%)
0
8.5
2626
0.03.2Capital rais ings (C$m)
26
135.4
27 June 2011
Mar-11a
0.0
Jun-11F
6.1
Funding duration at current burn (years)
Convertible notes (m)
109.7Fully diluted (m)
52 week range (A$/share)
35.5
Cut Off
ppm
NI 43-101
4.88
0
72.1
0.0
77.3
4.60
0
6.4
Kt
Code for reporting mineral resources - Canadian:
4957
Mlb
U3O8
Company Comment
Mlb
76.5
33.0
0
3.3
%
43.4
0.00.0
Drilling - Other/Diamond (m)
33.9 46.2
0
U3O8
0
Tenement costs ($m per year)
0.0
12.2
1.5
0.0 0.0
0.051
27.1
300 0.9 2.0
to
5.25
0.76
Corporate (C$m)
103.6 1.50
4.611.16Options and warrants (m)
0.7
0.0
3.8
13.7
0.0
5.5
Funding from JV partners (C$m)
Uranium
USA, Canada
Permitting
Exchanges: TSX:URE, AMEX:URG
2011F
Number of shares (m)
Share price (C$) 1.65
Production and Financial Forecasts
2012F
0.5
100% 1.4 0.055 301 0.8 1.8
na
Ur-Energy Inc
Lost Creek ISR project (WY) is nearing the end of the permitting
process. The NRC issued second Draft Source Material and
Byproduct License (May '11) and confirmed final completion of SEIS
(Jun '11). Production potential 1H12; 1mlbspa U3O8, opex US$20/lb.
4.700.75Exploration and evaluation (C$m) 6.00
C$ 1.65
WY (US)
Early Expl.
100%
ISR
sandstone
U
NE (US)ISR
Adv. Expl.sandstone
COO and President
Crosshair
www.ur-energy.com
U
na
U
JT Klenda (Chairman)
1.8
30.3
8.4
Measured, Indicated 100% 9.4 12.2
53
0.0
8.4
0.31.1Bootheel Indicated 25% 1.3 0.038
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Jun
-10
Aug
-10
Sep
-10
Oc
t-10
No
v-1
0
De
c-1
0
Jan
-11
Mar
-11
Ap
r-11
May
-11
Jun
-11
Sh
are
Pri
ce (
$/S
hare
)
URE - Ur-Energy Inc
Source: Bloomberg
Overview: Ur-Energy listed on the TSX Nov. '05 and the NYSE- AMEX in Jul ‘08. Its most advanced uranium projects are roll front style with in-situ recovery (ISR) potential in the Great Divide Basin, WY. Wyoming ISR Projects (Great Divide Basin): URE holds +50,000 mineral acres of claims in Wyoming. Its key priority is to advance Lost Creek. Other, earlier stage projects include LC North and South, Lost Soldier, EN (Eagles Nest) and the Bootheel JV. Historic resources total +60mlbs U3O8. Lost Creek: The resource is defined along a 4.8km (3 miles) strike with mineralisation occurring in 4 main sandstone horizons between 96m (315 feet) and 213m (700 feet) deep. Mineralised beds average 4.9m (16 feet) thick. URE expects leach recovery of 80%. The most recent NI 43-101 Preliminary Assessment (March2011) considers 6 year life of mine (LOM) pre-production capex of US$35.1m (with 10% contingency for ISR plant [$17.5m], plus engineering, drilling, etc), life-of-mine capex $85.6m, cash opex of US$19.66/lb for production of 1mlb/yr U3O8 (plant capacity 2mlb with potential for satellite or toll treatment). Considerable capex on infrastructure and equipment ($24m) has already occurred. Initial extraction will be from Mine Units #1 and #2 in the HJ horizon (delineated by +200km down-hole drilling), which each consists of multiple roll-fronts. URE’s development plan is to always have three units, or three years’ production (at 1-2mlbs U3O8 per unit), ahead of permitting and mining. Definition of a third mine unit is planned to include both the HJ and underlying underlying KM horizon (potential cost of delineation drilling $13-17m). Lost Creek is in the advanced stages of permitting, and equipment purchasing has started. The NRC Supplementary EIS was approved June ‘11 and the NRC Source and Byproduct Materials License now awaits final sign off of the Safety Evaluation Report (SER) – which is in the process of final approvals. Final permits from the BLM and WDEQ (Permit to Mine) are expected to follow. In terms of expansion, there are exploration targets at Lost Creek, LC North and LC South. Drilling in 2010 (159 holes for 101.270ft or 30.9km) intersected multiple regional redox fronts. A further 2000-3000 holes are recommended ($15-20m). At Lost Soldier, 22.5km NE of Lost Creek. mineralised horizons consist of 14 sand units at 30m to 137m depth. Investment Comment: Based on production at Lost Creek and anticipated exploration success (as detailed on next page), NPV10 for production of 1mlbspa U3O8 is ~C$150m (at C/US 0.90) assuming LT contract price US$55/lb (current US$60/lb). With other assets, our NAV remains C$269m or ~C$2.50/share, and we expectto see the share price revisit this level as Lost Creek demonstrates successful project commissioning anticipated in 2012, and positive market sentiment returns to the sector. Potential share price catalysts in 2011: resource expansion at Lost Creek, granting of final permits, and award of forward sales agreements.
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 31
Ur-Energy has a pipeline of prospective ISR projects in the Great Divide Basin, Wyoming. The main focus is on Lost Creek, which is ready for construction on receipt of permits. Target valuation C$2.50/share has
been run at a conservative long-term US$55/lb U3O8.
Ur-ENERGY INC. VALUATION
Target
Uranium Price* (Low) (High)
Resource/Target Valuation Discount A$m A$m A$m
Projects (mlbs) US$/lb for risk
+ Lost Creek current resource 8.5 13.24 15% 125 106 181
+ Lost Creek area exploration* 26 0.89 40% 26 13 65
+ Lost Soldier current resource 14 4.00 30% 62 42 70
+ Other resources, equity (Wyoming) 2.6 2.00 30% 6 1 10
Sub Total 51.1 219 162 326* 24-28mlbs U
3O
8, average 26mlbs
+ Cash 35.5 35.5 35.5
+ Tax Losses 28.5 28.5 28.5
- Corporate 13.9 13.9 13.9
Sub Total 50.1 50.1 50.1
URE NET ASSET VALUE 269 212 376
Capital Structure
Shares 102 102 102
Fully Diluted Shares 109 109 109
URE NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE :C$/share 2.64 2.08 3.69
URE NET ASSET VALUE DILUTED :C$/share fully diluted 2.56 2.04 3.54
* at LT US$55/lb U3O
8 (nom.)
LOST CREEK ISR PROJECT, WYOMING (CURRENT RESOURCE)
Equity
LONG TERM URANIUM PRICE^ :US$/lb 40 60 70 80 100
EXCHANGE RATE :C/US 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90
LOST CREEK URANIUM NPV @ 10% NOMINAL* :C$m 100% 106 130 144 156 180
LOST CREEK URANIUM NPV @ 10% NOMINAL* :US$m 100% 95 117 129 140 162
NPV/SHARE :C$/share 1.03 1.28 1.41 1.53 1.77
* Includes a pre-production project discount of 15% of valuation: 15%
^Uranium price assumptions are US$68/lb to 2Q11,$65/lb to 1Q12, $60/lb to 4Q17, thence long term price indicated.
LOST CREEK URANIUM PROJECT KEY ASSUMPTIONS*
RESOURCE ESTIMATES
Mt % Mlbs kt
Conceptual Uranium Target
Lost Creek resource, (Polyg: Ind. + Inf.) 10.6 0.049 8.5 3.9
Lost Creek area, exploration upside 22.2 0.049 26.0 11.8
Total 32.8 0.049 34.5 15.6
MINING METHOD ISR (In Situ Recovery)
PROCESS METHOD Solvent extraction (SX) and precipitation
PRODUCTION RATE (U3O8) :tpa 454 (This is 1mlbspa)
:mlbspa 1 to 2 Model: 1 year ramp-up, 1mlbpa ongoing.
CAPITAL COSTS :US$m 85.6 Pre-production is $35.1m, with initial 10% of borefield.
(Plant: $17.5m, pre-production $7.8m, initial wellfield $5.6m)
RECOVERY - URANIUM :% 80
OPERATING COSTS :US$/lb 19.66 Total cost US$42.65/lb including capex.
TAX :% 34 Corp. 15% at Jan '12; Ontario 14%; other 4.9%; land $200k.
MINE LIFE :Years 7+ Currently two years' production horizons have been defined.
TARGET COMMISSION DATE : 1H12
* These figures are intended to provide only a general indication of project potential scale and economic robustness. Further refinement may result during
production, which could commence in 1Q12 after final permitting and construction. Resources are as defined by the polygonal method.
Valuation Sensitivity
Sensitivity
Uranium
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 32
Selected Uranium Sector Performance Charts
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
May
-05
Aug
-05
No
v-05
Feb
-06
May
-06
Aug
-06
No
v-06
Feb
-07
May
-07
Aug
-07
No
v-07
Feb
-08
May
-08
Aug
-08
No
v-08
Feb
-09
May
-09
Aug
-09
No
v-09
Feb
-10
May
-10
Aug
-10
No
v-10
Feb
-11
May
-11
(C$/
shar
e)
Uranium Participaton Corp (TSX:U) Share Price(C$/share)
Source: Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jul-
06
Oct
-06
Jan
-07
Ap
r-07
Jul-
07
Oct
-07
Jan
-08
Ap
r-08
Jul-
08
Oct
-08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-09
Jul-
09
Oct
-09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-10
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-11
(p/s
har
e)
Geiger Counter Limited (LSE:GCL) Share Price(GBP - p/share)
Source: Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jun
-01
Dec
-01
Jun
-02
Dec
-02
Jun
-03
Dec
-03
Jun
-04
Dec
-04
Jun
-05
Dec
-05
Jun
-06
Dec
-06
Jun
-07
Dec
-07
Jun
-08
Dec
-08
Jun
-09
Dec
-09
Jun
-10
Dec
-10
(US
$/lb
)
Uranium Spot Price (U3O8)(US$/lb)
Source: BloombergSource: Bloomberg
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Feb
-07
Ap
r-07
Jun
-07
Aug
-07
Oct
-07
Dec
-07
Feb
-08
Ap
r-08
Jun
-08
Aug
-08
Oct
-08
Dec
-08
Feb
-09
Ap
r-09
Jun
-09
Aug
-09
Oct
-09
Dec
-09
Feb
-10
Ap
r-10
Jun
-10
Aug
-10
Oct
-10
Dec
-10
Feb
-11
Ap
r-11
(C$/
shar
e)
Uranium Focused Energy Fund (TSX:UF.UN) Share Price (C$/share)
Source: Bloomberg
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jan
-02
Jul-
02
Jan
-03
Jul-
03
Jan
-04
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan
-09
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
US
D
Merrill Lynch Uranium Equity Index
Source: Bloomberg
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Sep
-01
Mar
-02
Sep
-02
Mar
-03
Sep
-03
Mar
-04
Sep
-04
Mar
-05
Sep
-05
Mar
-06
Sep
-06
Mar
-07
Sep
-07
Mar
-08
Sep
-08
Mar
-09
Sep
-09
Mar
-10
Sep
-10
Mar
-11
US
D
DAX global Nuclear Energy Index
Source: Bloomberg
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jun
-01
Jun
-02
Jun
-03
Jun
-04
Jun
-05
Jun
-06
Jun
-07
Jun
-08
Jun
-09
Jun
-10
C$
/sh
are
Cameco Corporation (TSX:CCO) Share Price (C$/share)
Source: Bloomberg
0
50
100
150
200
250
Ju
n-0
1
De
c-0
1
Ju
n-0
2
De
c-0
2
Ju
n-0
3
De
c-0
3
Ju
n-0
4
De
c-0
4
Ju
n-0
5
De
c-0
5
Ju
n-0
6
De
c-0
6
Ju
n-0
7
De
c-0
7
Ju
n-0
8
De
c-0
8
Ju
n-0
9
De
c-0
9
Ju
n-1
0
De
c-1
0
(US
D/m
etri
c to
nn
e)
McCloskey Newcastle fob Steam Coal Spot Price/Australia (USD/metric tonne)
Source: Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jun
-01
Jun
-02
Jun
-03
Jun
-04
Jun
-05
Jun
-06
Jun
-07
Jun
-08
Jun
-09
Jun
-10
(US
$/b
arr
el)
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Cushing Crude Oil Spot Price (US$/barrel)
Source: Bloomberg
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Ju
n-0
1
Ju
n-0
2
Ju
n-0
3
Ju
n-0
4
Ju
n-0
5
Ju
n-0
6
Ju
n-0
7
Ju
n-0
8
Ju
n-0
9
Ju
n-1
0
US
D
Dow Jones Index
Source: Bloomberg
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Jun
-01
Jun
-02
Jun
-03
Jun
-04
Jun
-05
Jun
-06
Jun
-07
Jun
-08
Jun
-09
Jun
-10
US
D
Morgan Stanley World Index
Source: Bloomberg
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Ju
n-0
1
Ju
n-0
2
Ju
n-0
3
Ju
n-0
4
Ju
n-0
5
Ju
n-0
6
Ju
n-0
7
Ju
n-0
8
Ju
n-0
9
Ju
n-1
0
A$
/sh
are
Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN, TSX:PDN) Share Price (A$/share)
Source: Bloomberg
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 34
Report Contributors
Australian based analysts John Wilson: John has a background in mining, finance and equity research. He worked on Wall Street for 6 years and has covered US, Australian and Latin American mining stocks. He has also worked with BHP in their minerals division. Qualifications include an MBA from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Sydney. Tony Parry: Tony has extensive experience in metallurgical process development, (working with MIM Limited for five years) and in mining equity research, equity sales and mining corporate finance (working in London for five years and subsequently Perth). He was a founding Director and CEO of an ASX listed exploration company and has been engaged extensively as a strategic planning consultant to many small-medium enterprises. Tony’s qualifications include a BSc (Hons) in Metallurgy and a PhD in Metallurgy from the University of NSW. Murray Brooker: Murray has a background in mining and consulting as a geologist. He worked for North Limited (now part of Rio Tinto) for 10 years and for Parsons Brinckerhoff (a global engineering consultancy). He has 20 years’ experience assessing exploration projects in Australia, New Zealand, Mexico and South America. Murray has an MSc in Geology (James Cook University, Qld) and an MSc in Hydrogeology. He was also a founding Director of an unlisted Australian geothermal company. Canadian based analysts Khaled Sultan: Khaled has a background in oil and gas, mining and equity research. He has 11 years of industry experience, and most recently has spent more than four years focused on equity research and investment analysis. He has worked with one of Canada's top five investment banks in Toronto covering the precious metals sector with a focus on gold equities. He covered 21 gold companies including senior producers; Barrick, Newmont, and Goldcorp. Qualifications include a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Western Ontario and an MBA from the Rotman School of Business (University of Toronto).
Resource Capital Research
June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 35
Disclosure and Disclaimer Resource Capital Research ACN 111 622 489 www.rcresearch.com.au
Suite 1306
183 Kent Street Sydney, NSW 2000
Tel: +612 9252 9405 Fax: +612 9251 2859
Email: [email protected]
Disclosure and Disclaimer Important Information
Resource Capital Research Pty Limited (referred to as “we”, “our”, or “RCR” herein) ACN 111 622 489 holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFS Licence number 325340). General advice is provided by RCR’s Authorised Representatives Dr Tony Parry (Authorised Representative number 328842) and Murray Brooker (Authorised Representative number 407208). The FSG is available at www.rcresearch.com.au. All references to currency are in Australian dollars unless otherwise noted.
This report and its contents are intended to be used or viewed only by persons resident and located in the United States, Canada and Australia and therein only where RCR’s services and products may lawfully be offered. The information provided in this report is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject RCR or its affiliates to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country.
This report and its contents are not intended to constitute a solicitation for the purchase of securities or an offer of securities. The information provided in this report has been prepared without taking account of your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. You should, before acting on the information provided in this report, consider the appropriateness of the purchase or sale of the securities of the companies that are the subject of this report having regard to these matters and, if appropriate, seek professional financial, investment and taxation advice. RCR does not guarantee the performance of any investment discussed or recommended in this report. Any information in this report relating to the distribution history or performance history of the securities of the companies that are the subject of this report, should not be taken as an indication of the future value or performance of the relevant securities.
In preparing this report, RCR analysts have relied upon certain information provided by management of the companies that are the subject of this report or otherwise made publicly available by such companies. The information presented and opinions expressed herein are given as of the date hereof and are subject to change. We hereby disclaim any obligation to advise you of any change after the date hereof in any matter set forth in this report. THE INFORMATION PRESENTED, WHILE OBTAINED FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, IS CHECKED BUT NOT GUARANTEED AGAINST ERRORS OR OMISSIONS AND WE MAKE NO WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATION, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AND DISCLAIM AND NEGATE ALL OTHER WARRANTIES OR LIABILITY CONCERNING THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR RELIABILITY OF, OR ANY FAILURE TO UPDATE, ANY CONTENT OR INFORMATION HEREIN.
This report and the information filed on which it is based may include estimates and projections which constitute forward looking statements that express an expectation or belief as to future events, results or returns. No guarantee of future events, results or returns is given or implied by RCR. Estimates and projections contained herein, whether or not our own, are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable at the time of publication, however, such forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from the estimates and projections provided to RCR or contained within this report.
This report may, from time to time, contain information or material obtained from outside sources with the permission of the original author or links to web sites or references to products, services or publications other than those of RCR. The use or inclusion of such information, material, links or references does not imply our endorsement or approval thereof, nor do we warrant, in any manner, the accuracy of completeness of any information presented therein.
RCR, its affiliates and their respective officers, directors and employees may hold positions in the securities of the companies featured in this report and may purchase and/or sell them from time to time and RCR and its affiliates may also from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, entities mentioned in this report. Alligator Energy Limited, Australian American Mining Corporation NL, Deep Yellow Limited, Energy and Minerals Australia, Greenland Minerals and Energy Limited, Peninsula Energy Limited, Toro Energy Limited and Ur-Energy Inc commissioned RCR to compile respective company reviews in this report. In consideration, RCR received from each company a cash consultancy fee of less than $15,000. Paladin Energy Limited and Extract Resources Limited contributed to travel expenses for a recent RCR site trip. RCR may receive referral fees from issuing companies or their advisors in respect of investors that RCR refers to companies looking to raise capital. Those fees vary, but are generally between 0 - 1% of the value of capital raised from referrals made by RCR. RCR received referral fees in relation to recent capital raisings for Globe Uranium Limited, PepinNini Minerals Limited, Uranex NL and Toro Energy Limited. At the date of this report, neither RCR, nor any of its associates, hold any interests or entitlements in shares mentioned in this report with the exception that either or both of John Wilson (either directly or through Resource Capital Investments Pty Limited (RCI)) and associates, or RCI, as trustee of the Resource Capital Investments Fund owns shares in BHP, Rio Tinto, African Energy Resources Limited, Gold Road Resources Limited, and Uranex NL.
Analyst Certification: All observations, conclusions and opinions expressed in this report reflect the personal views of RCR analysts and no part of the analyst’s or RCR’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. Officers, directors, consultants, employees and independent contractors of RCR are prohibited from trading in the securities of U.S. companies that are, or are expected to be, the subject of research reports or other investment advice transmitted to RCR clients for a blackout window of 14 days extending before and after the date such report is transmitted to clients or released to the market.
Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors Concerning Estimates of Measured, Indicated and Inferred Resources: RCR publishes mineral resources based on standards recognized and required under securities legislation where listed mining and exploration companies make their exchange filings and uses the terms “measured", "indicated" and "inferred" mineral resources. U.S. investors are advised that while such terms are recognized and required under foreign securities legislation, the SEC allows disclosure only of mineral deposits that can be economically and legally extracted. United States investors are cautioned not to assume that all or any part of measured, indicated or inferred resources can be converted into reserves or economically or legally mined. We recommend that US investors consult Securities and Exchange Commission Industry Guide 7 – “Description of Property by Issuers Engaged or to Be Engaged in Significant Mining Operations” for further information about the use of defined terms and the presentation of information included in this report.
Resource Capital Research Suite 1306 183 Kent Street Sydney, NSW 2000
T: +612 9252 9405 F: +612 9251 2859 E: [email protected]
ACN 111 622 489
www.rcresearch.com.au