Upscaling aquatic ecosystem

service provision by management

of the drivers of change

Dr. Chris Dickens

&

Dr. Gordon O’Brien

WHAT ARE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES?

• Benefits humans obtain from

ecosystems (Costanza et al 1997)

Environmental

Quality

Social Well

Being

Economic

Prosperity

Governance

Figure 11: Sustainability model in South Africa

Phase 2 of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project

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IFR P1

IFR P2

IFR 5

IFR 6

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HYDRO. FOUNDATION

PARAMETERISE THE MODEL

LHDA 6001 Baseline Study

Median

25%-75%

Non-Outlier Range

Outliers

ExtremesPWQ1 PWQ2 PWQ3 PWQ4 PWQ5 PWQ6 PWQ7

Monitoring Point

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Conductiv

ity m

S/m

LHDA 6001 Baseline Study

Median

25%-75%

Non-Outlier Range

Outliers

ExtremesPWQ1 PWQ2 PWQ3 PWQ4 PWQ5 PWQ6 PWQ7

Monitoring Point

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Suspended s

olid

s m

g/l

WATER QUALITY: Spatial Changes

EC SS

LHDA 6001 Baseline Data

Median

25%-75%

Non-Outlier Range

Outliers

Extremes5 6 11 12 1 2 3

Month

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

PW

Q6 c

onductiv

ity (

mic

ro S

/cm

)

Electrical conductivity

The survey data (colouredpoints,) model grid and

mapped out roughness areas at IFR P2.

Velocity modelled for IFR P1 at 40.08 m3/s, S (observed in January 2014).

HYDRAULICS

Inundation depth modelled for IFR P2 At 40.08 m3/s (observed in January 2014)

Geomorphological features at IFR P2

A stylised depiction of the riffle transect

GEOMORPHOLOGY

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Marginal Zone: (B/C) Lower Zone: (B/C) Upper Zone: (C)

Co

ver

(%)

Woody Riparian Woody Terrestrial Non-woody (Incl Reeds) Perennial Aliens Open (Alluvium) Open (Bedrock) Open (Water) Other

Aerial cover estimation (%) for vegetation components stratified by sub-zones at IFR P1: woody vegetationassessment (top), non-woody vegetation assessment (bottom). Letters in brackets e.g. (B/C) indicate ecologicalcategory of the sub-zone

RIPARIAN VEGETATION

SOCIO-ECONOMIC BASELINE (1 of 5)

Total Consumption (Per Household)

Total Consumption (Population)

Household well-being indicator M 9,519 36,172,613

Water:All water consumption m3/a 64 244,623 Senqu River consumption m3/a 2 8,862

Fish:All fish caught # 142 538,245 Senqu River catch # 107 405,303

Wild Edible Plants:All collections Bags/a 220 836,039 Senqu River riparian collection Bags/a 83 316,609

Wild Medicinal Plants:All collections Bags/a 64 242,896 Senqu River riparian collection Bags/a 37 140,444

SOCIO-ECONOMIC BASELINE (3 of 5)

Total Consumption (Per Household)

Total Consumption (Population)

Livestock numbers:Cattle # 1 3,764 Sheep/Goats # 1 2,669 Horse/Donkey # 0 248 Other # - -

6,682 Domestic Energy:

Wood:All collections Bags/a 477 1,813,264 Senqu River riparian collection Bags/a 357 1,355,255

Bush:All collections Bags/a 552 2,098,679 Senqu River riparian collection Bags/a 247 940,109

Dung:All collections # 14,638 55,625,594 Senqu River riparian collection # 4,423 16,808,884

SOCIO-ECONOMIC BASELINE (5 of 5)

• Cultural services:

– Cultural diversity, spiritual and religious

values, aesthetic values, recreation and

ecotourismCultural Ecosystem

Service activity

Average time

spent per trip

Senqu River

Dependence

Average trips to

Senqu River

Hours/trip % Trips per year

Swimming 4.4 85% 17.1

Baptism 3.5 92% 4.5

Cultural Activities 4.8 88% 3.2

Spiritual Activities 4.4 74% 2.2

Initiation Activities 2.4 90% 1.6

Church 5.3 100% 0.3

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Historical flows

Current flows

Future flows

Hydrology

Geomorphology

Hydraulics

Water quality

RIVER TYPE

HYDROLOGICAL STATISTICS

SOURCES/STRESSORS(Location of multiple

source/stressors)

ENVIRONMENT

PEOPLE

LOCAL COMMUNITIES

OTHER BENEFICIARIES

BIOLOGICAL COMPONENT

PHYSICAL CONTENT

HABITATS (Location of multiple

receptors)

SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL ENDPOINTS(Location of ranked impacts to endpoints)

Floodplain non-woody plants (grazing)

Medicinal plants for people

Edible plants for people

Protection of fish for the ecosystem

Reeds

Protection of the riparian ecosystem

Protection of the river benthos

Domestic water (drinking and washing)

Fish stocks as food for people

Recreational/spiritual use

Woody plants (fuel, construction)

Building sand supply from instream

CONCEPTUAL MODEL CONSTRUCTION

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CONCEPTUAL MODEL CONSTRUCTION

PROBFLO: EXPANSION OF EXAMPLES3

RIPARIAN PLANTS (FOOD, FUEL AND

BUILDING MATERIALS)

SUPPLY FROM ENVIRONMENT

DEMAND: LOCAL COMMUNITIES

LOCAL COMMUNITIES

OTHER BENEFICIARIES

DEMAND FOR LIVESTOCK

DEMAND

RIPARIAN PLANT COMMUNITIES

ABUNDANCE

RIPARIAN COMMUNITY

INTEGRITY

ENVIRONMENTAL REQUIREMENTS

HYDROLOGY

GEOMORPHOLOGY

HYDRAULICS

WATER QUALITY

HABITAT

FLOW STANDARD

PROBFLO: Conditional Probability Tables

Output Node

Possible states by defined ranks

Likelihood of outcomes given input states

Conditional Probability Table

S2

Abundance

zerolowmediumhigh

30.060.010.0 0

1.6 ± 1.2

Riparian_Com_Integrity

zerolowmediumhigh

35.055.010.0 0

1.5 ± 1.2

Riparian_Plant_Communities

zerolowmedhigh

31.459.78.90 0

1.55 ± 1.2

Environment_Supply

zerolowmedhigh

46.945.47.180.52

1.23 ± 1.3

Demand_by_People

zerolowmediumhigh

51.846.41.82 0

1 ± 1.1

Demand_for_Lifestock

zerolowmediumhigh

35.060.05.00 0

1.4 ± 1.1

Environmental_Requirements

zerolowmedhigh

65.525.67.321.62

0.902 ± 1.4

Habitat

zerolowmediumhigh

57.126.510.55.91

1.3 ± 1.8

Water_Quality

zerolowmediumhigh

80.015.05.00 0

0.5 ± 1.1

Hydraulics

zerolowmediumhigh

45.030.015.010.0

1.8 ± 2

Geomorphology

zerolowmediumhigh

75.015.07.003.00

0.76 ± 1.5

Hydrology

zerolowmediumhigh

70.020.05.005.00

0.9 ± 1.6

Local_Communities

zerolowmediumhigh

25.070.05.00 0

1.6 ± 1

Other_Beneficiaries

zerolowmediumhigh

80.020.0 0 0

0.4 ± 0.8

Demand

zerolowmediumhigh

42.954.32.86 0

1.2 ± 1.1

Riparian_Vegitation

zerolowmediumhigh

44.151.34.420.16

1.21 ± 1.2

RIPARIAN PLANTS (FOOD, FUEL AND

BUILDING MATERIALS)

SCENARIO 1: NO DEVELOPMENT,

REFERENCE STATE.

SC 1

Abundance

zerolowmediumhigh

50.030.05.0015.0

1.7 ± 2.1

Riparian_Com_Integrity

zerolowmediumhigh

30.030.015.025.0

2.7 ± 2.3

Riparian_Plant_Communities

zerolowmedhigh

34.235.316.813.7

2.2 ± 2

Environment_Supply

zerolowmedhigh

19.638.928.812.7

2.69 ± 1.9

Demand_by_People

zerolowmediumhigh

53.038.98.05 0

1.1 ± 1.3

Demand_for_Lifestock

zerolowmediumhigh

40.030.015.015.0

2.1 ± 2.1

Environmental_Requirements

zerolowmedhigh

14.132.733.220.0

3.18 ± 1.9

Habitat

zerolowmediumhigh

20.924.230.424.5

3.17 ± 2.1

Water_Quality

zerolowmediumhigh

15.035.025.025.0

3.2 ± 2

Hydraulics

zerolowmediumhigh

45.015.030.010.0

2.1 ± 2.1

Geomorphology

zerolowmediumhigh

30.015.045.010.0

2.7 ± 2

Hydrology

zerolowmediumhigh

5.0020.05.0070.0

4.8 ± 1.9

Local_Communities

zerolowmediumhigh

60.035.05.00 0

0.9 ± 1.2

Other_Beneficiaries

zerolowmediumhigh

50.035.015.0 0

1.3 ± 1.5

Demand

zerolowmediumhigh

42.639.313.64.52

1.6 ± 1.7

Riparian_Vegitation

zerolowmediumhigh

27.044.622.55.89

2.15 ± 1.7

RIPARIAN PLANTS (FOOD, FUEL AND

BUILDING MATERIALS)

SCENARIO 2: POST DEVELOPMENT,

WITH IFR IMPLEMENTATION.

SC 2

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IRIPARIAN PLANTS (FOOD, FUEL AND

BUILDING MATERIALS)

SUPPLY FROM ENVIRONMENT

ENVIRONMENTAL REQUIREMENTS

HYDROLOGY HABITAT

MAINTAIN EXISTING MACROINVERTEBRATE

COMMUNITY STRUCTURES

ENVIRONMENTAL REQUIREMENTS

HYDROLOGYHABITAT

(HYDRAULICS)

ECOLOGICAL CUES

HYDROLOGY

MAINTAIN VIABILITY OF RHEOPHILIC RVER FISH

GUILDECOLOGICAL CUE FLOWS

ENVIRONMENTAL REQUIREMENTS

HYDROLOGYHABITAT

(HYDRAULICS)

WATER FOR LIFE (PEOPLE AND LIVESTOCK)

SUPPLY FROM ENVIRONMENT

QUANTITY

FISH (SUBSISTENCE FISHERY)

SUPPLY FROM ENVIRONMENT

ENVIRONMENTAL REQUIREMENTS

HYDROLOGY HABITAT

QUANTITYFORMAL WATER ABSTRACTION

MONITORING EWRs

SCENARIO INTERPRETATION – CHANGE IN ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

PD-3 PD-4 PD-5 PD-LMH PD-3 PD-4 PD-5 PD-LMH

Hydro:

Water -95.00% -2.50% -3.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Fish:

Fish -65.00% -25.00% -25.00% -5.00% -55.00% -20.00% -30.00% -55.00%

Geomorphology:

Sand -10.00% -50.00% -20.00% -15.00% 50.00% 10.00% 35.00% 30.00%

Riparian Area -5.00% -15.00% -5.00% -10.00% 30.00% 10.00% 15.00% 40.00%

Veg:

Rip Habitat Health -48.00% 0.00% -20.00% 0.00% -5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00%

Wood -40.00% 0.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 0.00%

Floodplain Grazing -30.00% 0.00% -30.00% -5.00% -10.00% 0.00% -10.00% -15.00%

Reeds -44.00% 0.00% -15.00% -5.00% -10.00% 0.00% -10.00% -15.00%

Medicinal -43.00% 0.00% -5.00% -5.00% -10.00% 0.00% -10.00% -15.00%

Food -40.00% 0.00% -5.00% -5.00% -10.00% 0.00% -10.00% -15.00%

IFR-P1 IFR-P2

CALCULATE THE RELATIVE AND INTEGRATED RISK