update on renewable energy market...
TRANSCRIPT
Copyri
ght ©
2008 T
he B
ratt
le G
roup,
Inc.
Anti
trust
/Co
mp
etit
ion
Co
mm
erci
al D
am
ages
En
vir
on
menta
l L
itig
atio
n a
nd
Reg
ula
tio
nF
ore
nsi
c E
cono
mic
sIn
tell
ect
ual
Pro
per
tyIn
tern
atio
nal
Arb
itra
tio
nIn
tern
atio
nal
Tra
de
Pro
duct
Lia
bil
ity
Reg
ula
tory
Fin
ance
and
Acco
unti
ng
Ris
k M
anag
em
ent
Secu
riti
esT
axU
tili
ty R
egula
tory
Po
licy
and
Rat
em
akin
gV
alu
atio
nE
lect
ric
Po
wer
Fin
anci
al I
nst
ituti
ons
Nat
ura
l G
asP
etro
leu
mP
har
mac
euti
cals
, M
edic
al D
evic
es,
and
Bio
tech
no
log
yT
elec
om
mu
nic
ati
ons
and
Med
iaT
ran
spo
rtat
ion
Up
da
te o
n R
en
ew
ab
le E
ne
rgy M
ark
et
Tre
nd
s
Pre
pare
d b
y:
Ju
dy C
han
g
Co
nfe
ren
ce o
n:
Fin
an
cin
g C
lean
En
erg
y P
roje
cts
un
der
the
Rein
vestm
en
t A
ct
of
2009
Th
urs
da
y,
Ju
ne 1
1, 2009
UM
ass C
lub
225 F
ranklin
Str
eet
Bosto
n
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
2
Ag
en
da
•O
verv
iew
of
ren
ew
ab
le e
nerg
y d
em
an
d a
nd
m
ark
et
dri
vers
•N
ew
En
gla
nd
’s d
em
an
d a
nd
su
pp
ly b
ala
nce
•T
ran
sm
iss
ion
, o
ne o
f th
e m
ost
sig
nif
ican
t ch
all
en
ges f
or
ren
ew
ab
le r
eso
urc
es
•O
ther
imp
ort
an
t m
ark
et
dyn
am
ics f
or
ren
ew
ab
le
en
erg
y
•T
he B
ratt
le G
rou
p’s
recen
t exp
eri
en
ce
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
3
Main
Dri
vers
of
Ren
ew
ab
le E
nerg
y I
nvestm
en
ts
Po
liti
cal
•E
nerg
y security
& d
esire to d
ivers
ify
from
petr
ole
um
-based f
uels
•C
limate
change a
nd r
ene
wable
energ
y ta
rgets
•N
ational and s
tate
energ
y p
olic
ies
Eco
no
mic
•E
nerg
y p
rices, div
ers
ity o
f fu
els
, p
ote
ntial cost of carb
on e
mis
sio
ns
•F
edera
l and s
tate
fin
ancia
l subsid
ies for
rene
wable
pow
er
•T
ariffs,
cost
recovery
fo
r po
we
r p
urc
hase c
ontr
acts
, risk a
llocation
•P
roje
ct costs
inclu
din
g c
osts
of m
ate
rials
, financin
g, and labor
•G
reen c
ert
ific
ate
mark
ets
, R
PS
-dri
ven a
nd v
olu
nta
ry
Oth
ers
•F
inancia
l m
ark
et
(cre
dit c
runch)
•R
esourc
e a
vaila
bili
ty
•E
xchange r
ate
s
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
4
Th
e R
en
ew
ab
le P
ort
folio
Sta
nd
ard
(R
PS
) M
ap
of
the U
.S.
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
5
Ren
ew
ab
le R
eso
urc
e M
ap
s f
or
the U
.S.
Win
dS
ola
r
Bio
mass
Geo
therm
al
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
6
Ad
dit
ion
al R
en
ew
ab
le C
ap
acit
y N
eed
ed
to
Meet
RP
S
Sourc
e:
Rya
n W
iser
and G
ale
n B
arb
ose,
La
wre
nce B
erk
ele
y N
ational La
b,
April 2008
La
wre
nce
Be
rke
ley
Nation
al Labo
rato
ry e
stim
ate
s
tha
t 60
GW
of
ne
w r
ene
wab
le e
ne
rgy
ca
pa
city
will
be
ne
eded
by
202
5.
Tha
t n
um
be
r in
cre
ase
s to
77
GW
by
2025
if inclu
din
g
lon
g-t
erm
go
als
fro
m v
ariou
s s
tate
s.
43
518
357
317
.4W
ax
ma
n
15
026
186
721
.8M
ark
ey
95
19
763
812
.1B
ing
am
an
N/A
20
869
9N
/AB
ase
Case
CO
2
Em
issio
ns
Red
ucti
on
in
2030
(millio
n
metr
ic
ton
s)
Qu
alify
ing
R
en
ew
ab
le
Cap
acit
y in
2030 (
GW
)
Qu
alify
ing
R
en
ew
ab
le
Gen
era
tio
n
in 2
030
(TW
h)
Peak
Eff
ecti
ve
RE
S (
%)
Case
As
su
mp
tio
n
Co
mp
ara
tive
Fin
din
gs
of
the
Pro
po
se
d R
ES
Le
gis
lati
on
Sourc
e:
Sulli
van,
Log
an,
Bird,
an
d S
hort
, “C
om
para
tive
Analy
sis
of
Thre
e P
ropose
d F
edera
l R
ene
wable
Ele
ctr
icity
Sta
ndard
s,
NR
EL,
May
20
09,
pag
e v
.
If n
ot
cou
ntin
g e
xistin
g c
on
ven
tiona
l h
ydro
fa
cili
tie
s a
s
qu
alif
ied
re
ne
wab
le r
eso
urc
es,
NR
EL
estim
ate
s t
ha
t a
bou
t 15
0G
Wof n
ew
rene
wa
ble
ene
rgy
ca
pa
city
will
be
need
ed
by
20
30
.
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
7
U.S
. F
ed
era
l In
cen
tives f
or
Ren
ew
ab
le P
ow
er
•P
roductio
n t
ax c
redit (
PT
C)
of 2.1
cent/
kW
h for
win
d,
sola
r, g
eoth
erm
al, a
nd
“clo
sed-l
oo
p”
bio
-en
erg
y fa
cili
ties,
lasts
10 y
ears
once a
wa
rded
►T
ax-e
quity
str
uctu
res w
ere
fo
rme
d to t
ake a
dvanta
ge o
f th
e t
ax c
redit –
but
most
tax-
equity investo
rs a
re n
o longer
in t
he m
ark
et
to s
up
port
rene
wable
pro
jects
post th
e
2008 fin
ancia
l crisis
•A
merican R
ecovery
and R
ein
vestm
ent
Act
of
2009 (
“AR
RA
”) e
nhanced
develo
pers
’abili
ty t
o r
ece
ive t
ax
cre
dits v
ia a
n I
nvestm
ent
Tax
Cre
dit (
ITC
)and
by
allo
win
g c
om
panie
s t
o b
e d
irectly
reim
bu
rsed t
hro
ug
h g
rants
•T
his
polic
y m
ay
de
lay
som
e p
roje
ct
duri
ng t
ransitio
n p
eri
od w
hile
the p
roce
ss f
or
dis
burs
ing f
un
ds a
re s
till
bein
g w
ork
ed o
ut
•U
sin
g a
n I
TC
as a
fin
ancia
l in
centive m
ay
als
o lead t
o s
om
e c
ontr
acting issues
aro
un
d ince
ntive f
or
po
wer
pro
duction.
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
8
Ren
ew
ab
le E
nerg
y C
red
its a
nd
Tra
din
g
•R
enew
able
Energ
y C
redits (
RE
Cs)
can c
ontr
ibute
sig
nific
antly
to t
he
overa
ll pro
fita
bili
ty o
f a
rene
wable
pro
ject.
►B
ut U
.S.
RE
C m
ark
ets
are
fra
gm
ente
d
and c
an b
e q
uite v
ola
tile
, w
ith R
EC
prices v
ary
ing d
ram
atically
acro
ss
regio
ns a
nd o
ver
tim
e.
►T
wo d
istinct segm
ents
: C
om
plia
nce
mark
ets
(sta
te R
PS
) and V
olu
nta
ry
(“gre
en p
ow
er”
) m
ark
ets
. V
olu
nta
ry
mark
ets
tend to h
ave low
er
prices, of
cours
e.
•T
he v
alu
e o
f R
EC
sin
com
plia
nce
mark
ets
can
depend g
rea
tly o
n t
he
short
-te
rm r
enew
able
s s
upply
(vs.
RP
S),
whic
h m
ay c
hange o
ver
tim
e
•R
enew
able
energ
y cost vs.
ma
rket
price for
“conventional”
pow
er
als
o
affects
long-t
erm
RE
C p
rices
Illu
str
ative E
xam
ple
s
So
urc
e:
Evo
lution
Ma
rke
ts
Reg
ion
/Pro
du
ct
Te
rmP
ric
eD
ate
20
07
$5
1.0
0
Apr-
08
20
08
$5
0.5
0
Nov-0
7
20
08
$2
5.0
0
Jul-
08
20
08
$2
0.0
0
May-
09
20
07
$5
5.0
0
Apr-
08
20
08
$5
4.0
0
Ma
r-0
8
20
08
$4
5.5
0
Jul-
08
20
08
$2
4.0
0
May-
09
20
09
$3
1.0
0
Ju
n-0
9
2nd h
alf
20
07
$5.2
5
Fe
b-0
8
20
08
$4.0
0
Jul-
08
20
08
$1.0
3
Ju
n-0
9
20
09
$1.3
5
Ju
n-0
9
New
Jers
ey (
So
lar)
20
07
/08
$2
65
.00
Jul-
08
New
Jers
ey C
lass
I2
009
$3.5
0
Ju
n-0
9
New
Jers
ey C
lass
I2
010
$1
1.0
0
Ju
n-0
9
Pe
nn
sylv
an
ia (
Tie
r I)
20
07
/08
$8.5
0
Ju
n-0
8
Co
nn
ecti
cu
t (C
lass
I)
Ma
ssa
ch
us
ett
s (
Cla
ss
I)
Te
xas
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
9
Cu
rren
t W
ind
In
du
str
y T
ren
d
•C
on
so
lid
ati
on
. W
ind d
evelo
pers
have b
een c
onsolid
ating s
uch that th
e larg
est 3
ow
ners
ow
n a
bo
ut 60
% o
f U
.S.
win
d c
apacity
•L
on
g-t
erm
PP
A.
Most p
roje
cts
obta
in 1
0 to 2
0 y
ear
po
we
r pu
rcha
se c
ontr
acts
fr
om
utilit
ies
•A
nch
or
Te
nan
t M
od
el
for
Merc
han
t T
ran
sm
iss
ion
. F
ER
C h
as a
ppro
ved the
first
“anchor
tenant”
meth
od o
f ne
w t
ransm
issio
n d
evelo
pm
ent –
as a
n a
ltern
ative to
open s
eason for
merc
hant
transm
issio
n to r
esolv
e the “
chic
ken-a
nd-e
gg”
challe
nge
(Chin
ook P
ow
er
and Z
eph
yr
Po
wer
Tra
nsm
issio
n)
•R
eg
ula
tio
n a
nd
En
erg
y B
ala
nce
Need
to
Acc
om
pan
y L
arg
e W
ind
In
sta
lla
tio
ns.
M
ost R
TO
shave
recogniz
ed that
addin
g a
larg
e a
mount o
f w
ind o
nto
exis
ting
sys
tem
will
require a
dditio
nal energ
y bala
ncin
g r
esourc
es, in
clu
din
g a
dditio
nal
pro
vid
ers
of
regu
lation, lo
ad-f
ollo
win
g, fa
st
ram
pin
g c
apabili
ties
•E
nerg
y S
tora
ge
. A
dditio
nal sto
rage c
apabili
ties w
ould
be a
natu
ral “p
art
ne
r”fo
r w
ind r
esou
rces,
but m
ost
sto
rage
technolo
gie
s a
re e
xpensiv
e to d
evelo
p
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
10
Dis
trib
ute
d g
en
era
tio
n:
genera
tion a
nd
consum
ptio
n a
t th
e c
usto
mer
sid
e
of
the m
ete
r.
•F
inancia
l In
cen
tives inclu
de R
PS
with s
ola
r carv
e-o
ut
an
d t
ax incentives
(federa
l in
vestm
ent
tax
cre
dit o
f 30%
, specia
l re
ne
wa
ble
cre
dits
for
dis
trib
ute
d g
en
era
tion,
an
d v
arious s
tate
tax
cre
dit ince
ntive
s).
•R
egu
lato
ry I
nfr
astr
uctu
re c
overing a
ccess t
o t
he g
rid (
inte
rconnection
sta
ndard
s),
net
mete
ring,
and r
ate
desig
n.
►42 S
tate
s h
ave e
sta
blis
hed r
ule
s o
f N
et
Me
tering t
hat allo
w o
wne
rs o
f sola
r sys
tem
s t
he s
ale
of e
xcess e
lectr
icity
back t
o t
he g
rid. T
hese p
rog
ram
s v
ary
w
idely
dependin
g o
n the
sta
te.
Wh
ole
sale
mark
et:
centr
al s
tation g
en
era
tion f
or
dis
trib
ution a
nd s
ale
to
utilit
ies.
•D
riven b
y R
PS
, part
of
utilit
ies’supply
port
folio
•U
tilit
ies in C
alif
orn
ia a
nd N
eva
da h
ave b
een s
ignin
g larg
e s
ola
rpo
we
r contr
acts
–but
sola
r pro
jects
face s
imila
r cha
llen
ges a
s w
ind
Reg
ula
tory
Dri
vers
fo
r S
ola
r P
V a
nd
So
lar
Th
erm
al In
vestm
en
ts
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
11
“S
ola
r C
arv
e-O
ut”
Pro
vid
ing
Op
po
rtu
nit
ies in
So
me S
tate
s
Cert
ain
sta
tes h
ave
set
cert
ain
re
gu
lato
ry e
mp
has
is o
n s
ola
r e
nerg
y i
nve
stm
en
t.
TB
DT
BD
0.5
% b
y 2
025
12
.5 b
y 2
025
Oh
io
11
% b
y 2
022
5,8
80
MW
by
201
5
8%
by
20
20
12
.5%
by
202
1 (
Inve
sto
r o
wn
ed
util
itie
s)
10
% b
y 2
018
(P
ublic
ow
ne
d u
tiliti
es)
20
% b
y 2
020
(In
vesto
r o
wn
ed
utilit
ies)
10
% b
y 2
020
(co
-ops)
22
.5%
by
202
1
23
.8%
by
202
5
20
% b
y 2
015
9.5
% b
y 2
022
20
% b
y 2
019
20
% b
y 2
020
(In
vesto
r o
wn
ed
utilit
ies)
10
% b
y 2
020
(P
ublic
ow
ne
d u
tiliti
es)
15
% b
y 2
025
To
tal
RP
S R
eq
uir
em
en
t
6,7
00
55
0T
ota
l
1,6
00
11
04
.5%
dis
trib
ute
d g
en
era
tion
, no
t sp
eci
fica
lly s
ola
rA
rizo
na
0.3
86
% b
y 20
21
1.1
x m
ultip
lier
for
sola
r b
y 20
09
2x
mu
ltip
lier
for
no
n-w
ind
0.5
% P
V b
y 2
02
0
0.2
% b
y 2
018
4%
by
20
20
2.1
2%
by
202
1
0.3
% b
y 2
014
1%
by
20
15
2.4
x m
ultip
lier
for
cen
tra
l PV
2.4
5x
mu
ltip
lier
for
dis
trib
ute
d P
V
2%
by
20
22
2%
PV
by
20
19
3x
mu
ltip
lier
for
PV
insta
lled
be
fore
20
15
0.8
% b
y 2
02
01
.25
x m
ulti
plie
r fo
r in
-sta
te3
x fo
r so
lar
up
to
pro
jects
on
lin
e b
y 20
15
So
lar
Re
qu
ire
me
nt
/ G
oa
l
0.5
NA
25564
21
0
476
14
0.529
20
10 (
MW
)
54
NA
69
0
28
0
42
0
1,6
00
35
18
0
1,5
00
19
0
16
0
20
25 (
MW
)
Wa
sh
ing
ton
D.C
.
Te
xas
Pe
nn
sylv
an
ia
No
rth
Ca
roli
na
New
Me
xic
o
New
Je
rse
y
New
Ham
ps
hir
e
Ne
va
da
Ma
ryla
nd
De
law
are
Co
lora
do
Sta
te
Estim
ate
s f
rom
Rya
n W
ise
r and
Ga
len
Ba
rbo
se,
Re
ne
wa
ble
Po
rtfo
lio S
tan
da
rds in U
.S.:
A S
tatu
s R
epo
rt w
ith D
ata
th
roug
h 2
00
7, L
aw
ren
ce B
erk
ele
y
Na
tio
na
l La
b, A
pril 2
00
8, sup
ple
me
nte
d w
ith
up
da
ted
info
rmatio
n g
ath
ere
d f
rom
Bra
ttle
.
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
12
Re
ne
wa
ble
En
erg
y M
ark
et
in N
ew
En
gla
nd
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
13
Dem
an
d f
or
Ren
ew
ab
le E
nerg
y in
New
En
gla
nd
•F
ive o
f th
e s
ix N
ew
Engla
nd s
tate
s
have m
andate
s t
o s
erv
e a
po
rtio
n o
f re
tail
sale
s w
ith r
enew
able
genera
tion*
•C
lass 1
(“n
ew
”) r
enew
able
re
quirem
ent
will
drive r
ene
wable
develo
pm
ent
•B
ecause o
f th
e o
verlaps in s
tate
polic
ies, th
e m
ark
et fo
r R
EC
sbehaves m
ore
or
less lik
e a
sin
gle
N
ew
Engla
nd m
ark
et
•O
ve
rall
dem
and f
or
RE
Cs
is
expecte
d t
o q
uad
ruple
betw
een 2
008
and 2
020
So
urc
e:
20
08 C
EL
T R
epo
rt F
ore
cast
fo
r “B
ase
Cas
e”
Gro
wth
rat
e fo
r yea
rs b
eyo
nd
20
17 i
s b
ased
on C
EL
T R
epo
rt’s
av
erag
e gro
wth
rat
es
No
tes:
Dem
and
acco
unts
fo
r es
tim
ated
red
uct
ions
fro
m R
efe
ren
ce D
SM
fo
reca
st
Mas
sachu
sett
s d
em
and
in
corp
ora
tes
the
incr
eas
ed C
lass
1 R
PS
req
uir
em
ent
fro
m t
he
20
08
Gre
en C
om
mu
nit
ies
Act
*V
erm
ont
has
a v
olu
nta
ry r
en
ew
able
po
rtfo
lio
go
al
New
En
gla
nd
’s D
ema
nd
fo
r C
lass
1 R
enew
ab
le E
ner
gy
CT
ME
MA
NH
RI
VT
-
5,0
00
10
,00
0
15
,00
0
20
,00
0
25
,00
0
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Annual Renewable Demand (GWh)
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
14
Exis
tin
g a
nd
Pro
po
sed
Ren
ew
ab
le R
eso
urc
es i
n
New
En
gla
nd
•B
iom
ass d
om
inate
s in e
xistin
g r
esourc
es (
~500M
W)
►E
xis
ting b
iom
ass that
have q
ualif
ied o
r in
the p
rocess o
f qualif
ying a
s C
lass 1
in
Connecticut, M
assachusetts o
r M
ain
e’s
are
inclu
ded a
s “
exis
ting b
iom
ass r
esourc
es”
belo
w
•Q
ualif
ied im
port
s f
rom
NY
and Q
uebec a
re m
ostly
win
d r
eso
urc
es (
>300 M
W)
•T
here
are
sig
nific
ant
num
ber
of
pro
pose
d n
ew
re
ne
wa
ble
pro
jects
(>
3,5
00 M
W)
•N
ot
all
of
the p
ropose
d p
roje
cts
will
be b
uilt
•E
very
pro
ject
faces r
isks a
ssocia
ted w
ith:
►O
bta
inin
g e
nvironm
enta
l and r
eg
ula
tory
pe
rmits
►In
terc
onnection a
gre
em
en
ts, costs
associa
ted w
ith a
ny
transm
issio
n infr
astr
uctu
re
needed to s
uppo
rt r
enew
able
ene
rgy d
evelo
pm
ent
►F
inancin
g for
ren
ew
able
energ
y h
as b
ecom
e incre
asin
gly
difficult, p
art
icula
rly
giv
en t
he
2008 e
conom
ic d
ow
ntu
rn
►“N
IMB
Y”
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
15
Ren
ew
ab
le P
ote
nti
al in
New
En
gla
nd
•T
echnic
al pote
ntial show
s that
New
Engla
nd h
as a
n a
bundance o
f re
sourc
es
•If d
evelo
ped,
the r
ene
wable
pote
ntial fa
r e
xceeds r
egio
nal R
PS
requirem
ent
•M
ost abundant
resourc
e is w
ind
►W
ind is g
reate
st
in M
ain
e, N
ew
Ham
pshire a
nd V
erm
ont, a
nd o
ff-s
hore
►A
dditio
nal w
ind is a
vaila
ble
in N
ew
York
and E
aste
rn C
anadia
n P
rovi
nces
New
En
gla
nd
Ren
ewab
le R
esou
rce
Tec
hn
ical
Pote
nti
al
(Na
mep
late
MW
Cap
aci
ty, ex
cep
t fo
r sm
all
hyd
ro)
* H
yd
ro, la
nd
fill
and
fu
el c
ell
po
tenti
al l
evel
s ar
e se
t at
th
e am
ount
of
exis
ting s
up
ply
plu
s p
ropo
sed
pro
ject
s
Sou
rces
: O
n-s
hore
Win
d:
Rep
ort
Of
Th
e G
ov
ern
or’
s T
ask F
orc
e O
n W
ind
Po
wer
Dev
elop
men
t: F
ind
ing C
om
mon
Gro
und
For
A C
om
mon
Pu
rpose
, F
inal
Rep
ort
," S
tate
of
Mai
ne,
Feb
ruar
y 2
008
Off
-sh
ore
Win
d:
"Ren
ewab
le E
ner
gy R
esou
rces
in
New
En
gla
nd…
Wil
l T
hey
be
Th
ere
Wh
en W
e N
eed
Th
em?,
" B
ob
Gra
ce, P
rese
nte
d t
oN
ort
hea
st E
ner
gy a
nd C
om
mer
ce A
ssoci
atio
n;
15th
Ann
ual
New
En
gla
nd
En
ergy C
on
fere
nce
, M
ay 1
4, 20
08
. B
ased
on N
RE
L d
ata
Bio
mas
s/b
iofu
el:
"S
ecu
rin
g A
Pla
ce F
or
Bio
mas
s In
Th
e N
ort
hea
st U
nit
ed S
tate
s:A
Rev
iew
Of
Ren
ewab
le E
ner
gy A
nd
Rel
ated
Poli
cies
," X
ener
gy,
Mar
ch 3
1, 20
03
Note
: T
he
level
of
supp
ly d
oes
not
yet
sp
ecif
ical
ly c
on
sid
er h
igh
er c
ost
res
ou
rces
are
more
un
lik
ely t
o b
e n
eed
ed/b
uil
t.
Sta
teC
TM
AM
EN
HR
IV
TT
ota
l N
E
Landfi
ll G
as*
52
18
32
30
10
115
Win
d25
90
15,3
20
1,2
24
01
,947
9,4
17
Off
shore
Win
d0
6,5
66
1,2
11
0431
08,2
08
Hydro
*3
89
422
532
163
Bio
mas
s/B
iofu
els
235
29
844
6328
35
182
1,5
23
Fu
el C
ell
s*1
53
00
00
0153
Tota
l4
68
7,7
91
7,0
73
1,5
75
501
2,1
71
19,5
79
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
16
Su
pp
ly a
nd
Dem
an
d B
ala
nc
e i
n P
lan
nin
g H
ori
zo
n is
Un
cert
ain
•N
ew
Engla
nd c
ould
meet R
PS
requirem
ents
if deve
lopm
ent activi
ties c
ontinue to b
e a
ggre
ssiv
e
and h
urd
les c
an b
e r
educed
•S
upply
and d
em
and b
ala
nce s
how
s the im
pact of uncert
ain
ties a
round futu
re p
roje
ct
deve
lopm
ent
Note
: T
he
supp
ly l
evel
does
not
con
sid
er h
igh
er c
ost
res
ou
rces
are
more
unli
kel
y t
o b
e n
eed
ed/b
uil
t. Q
ual
ifie
d i
mp
ort
s ar
e in
clud
ed.
0
5,0
00
10
,00
0
15
,00
0
20
,00
0
25
,00
0
30
,00
0
35
,00
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Generation (GWh)
01,0
00
2,0
00
3,0
00
4,0
00
5,0
00
6,0
00
7,0
00
Capacity (MW)
New
En
gla
nd
Cla
ss I
Ren
ewa
ble
Res
ou
rce D
ema
nd
New
En
gla
nd
Cla
ss I
Ren
ewa
ble
Res
ou
rce
Su
pp
ly
Ba
sed
on
exis
tin
g a
nd
pro
po
sed
pro
ject
s
Ran
ge
of
sup
ply
unce
rtain
ty
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
17
Tra
ns
mis
sio
n,
a C
ha
lle
ng
efo
r R
en
ew
ab
le P
ow
er
De
ve
lop
me
nt
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
18
On
e o
f th
e B
igg
est
Ch
allen
ges is T
ran
sm
issio
n A
ccess
EH
V T
ran
sm
iss
ion
Ove
rlay
Sta
tus
Qu
o T
ran
sm
iss
ion
Ex
pa
ns
ion
Pro
ces
s
Sa
mp
le M
TE
P0
8 B
oa
rd A
pp
roved
Up
gra
des
Sa
mp
le M
TE
P0
8 B
oa
rd A
pp
roved
Up
gra
des
Gre
en
Po
wer
Exp
ress
Co
ncep
t
•B
rattle
recently
conducte
d a
stu
dy
of
Ext
ra-H
igh V
oltage (
EH
V)
ove
rlays
in the M
idw
est as a
means to
inte
rconnect a s
ignific
ant am
ount of re
mote
win
d r
esourc
es.
•W
e found thatE
HV
grid a
dditio
ns that in
cre
ase a
ccess to h
igher-
qualit
y w
ind r
esourc
es, alo
ng w
ith
exp
ecte
d c
arb
on p
rices, enable
renew
able
resourc
es to b
ecom
e c
ost-
com
petitive
with c
onve
ntional
pow
er
(exc
ludin
g tra
nsm
issio
n c
ost diffe
rences)
►O
ur
sim
ula
tion
s s
ho
w o
ver
20
,000
MW
of
win
d c
apa
city
ove
r an
d a
bo
ve c
urr
en
t R
PS
ma
nda
tes
will
be
bu
ilt
be
twe
en
2020
–2030
in t
he
Mid
we
st
if t
ran
smis
sio
n a
cce
ss is a
vaila
ble
.
►R
egio
na
l exp
an
sion
usi
ng a
ll th
is w
ind
wou
ld s
ave
app
roxi
ma
tely
6,6
00
mill
ion
MM
BT
Us
of
fue
l and
370
mill
ion
m
etr
ic to
ns o
f C
O2
thro
ugh
203
0.
►E
HV
add
itio
ns p
rovi
de
oth
er
sys
tem
be
nefits
, su
ch a
s g
rea
ter
relia
bili
ty,
div
ers
ity,
an
d m
ark
et
liquid
ity
–n
ot
qu
an
tifie
d in
th
is s
tud
y.
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
19
Sam
ple
Pro
po
sals
fo
r “S
up
er
Gri
ds”
$4
.9 b
n2
,334
mile
s o
f 3
45
kV
th
rou
gho
ut
we
ste
rn T
exa
s t
o s
up
po
rt 1
8 G
W o
f in
sta
lled
win
d c
apa
city
Va
rio
us
Co
mp
etitive
Re
ne
wa
ble
En
erg
y Z
on
es (
CR
EZ
s)
$8
.0 b
n2
,250
mile
s o
f 7
65
/500
kV
th
rou
gh
ou
t S
PP
fo
otp
rin
t (A
K,
KS
, M
O,
NM
, O
K,
TX
) fo
r re
liab
ility
and
to
inco
rpo
rate
an
estim
ate
d 1
3.5
GW
of
insta
lled
win
d c
apa
city
SP
P R
TO
SP
P O
verl
ay
& X
Pla
n
$3
-7
bn
1,0
00
mile
s o
f A
C (
500
kV
) a
nd D
C lin
es th
roug
h B
ritish
Co
lum
bia
-WA
-O
R-C
A t
o s
upp
ort
3 G
W o
f re
ne
wa
ble
sA
vista
Co
rp,
Bri
tish
Co
lum
bia
T
ran
sm
issi
on
, P
aci
fiC
orp
, an
d
PG
&E
Ca
na
da
-No
rth
we
st-
Calif
orn
ia P
roje
ct
$5
.1 b
n1
,280
mile
s o
f lin
es
rate
d u
p t
o 5
00kV
to in
terc
on
ne
ct
ren
ew
ab
lere
sou
rces s
uch
as w
ind
an
d s
ola
r th
roug
hou
t W
Y-C
O-N
M-A
ZG
rou
p o
f 1
1 e
lectr
ic u
tilit
ies, sta
te
ag
encie
s, a
nd a
n in
de
pen
den
t tr
an
smis
sio
n c
om
pan
y
Hig
h P
lain
s E
xpre
ss*
$8
0 b
n
(20
24$
)C
on
cep
tua
l stu
dy: 1
5,0
00
mile
s o
f n
ew
EH
V th
roug
hou
t en
tire
Ea
ste
rn
Inte
rco
nn
ect
(excep
t F
lorid
a)
to s
up
po
rt 2
0%
na
tion
al R
PS
sta
nd
ard
Mid
we
st
ISO
, S
PP
, P
JM
, T
VA
, M
AP
P a
nd
se
vera
l key m
em
be
rs
of
SE
RC
Jo
int
Co
ord
ina
ted
Stu
dy P
lan
n/a
Tra
nsm
issi
on
to
su
pp
ort
15
GW
of
win
d in
IA
, IL
, M
N, W
I (P
ha
se I
) an
d
22
GW
of w
ind
fo
r a
ll M
idw
est IS
O (
Ph
ase
II)
Mid
we
st
ISO
Re
gio
na
l O
utle
t S
tud
y
Gro
up
of 1
1 tra
nsm
issio
n o
wn
ers
in
Up
pe
r M
idw
est
Na
tio
na
l G
rid
and
Ban
go
r H
ydro
AE
P a
nd
IT
C T
ran
sm
issio
n
ITC
Tra
nsm
issio
n
Sp
on
so
red
By
•Hig
h P
lain
s E
xpre
ss (
HP
X)
inclu
des o
ther
pro
jects
such
as:
the
Easte
rn P
lain
s T
ransm
issio
n P
roje
ct
(EP
TP
), t
he W
yom
ing-C
olo
rado
In
tert
ie (
WC
I),
the
Ne
w M
exi
co
Win
d C
olle
cto
r, a
nd
the
SunZ
ia S
outh
west
Tra
nsm
issio
n P
roje
ct.
•**
This
lis
t om
its s
om
e p
rop
osals
pu
rely
for
bre
vity
–no
rankin
g o
r opin
ion
att
aches t
o inclu
sio
n w
ithin
th
e s
et
of
lines s
how
n.
$1
.4 -
$1
.7 b
n7
10
mile
s o
f 34
5/2
30
kV
fro
m D
ako
tas th
roug
h M
N t
o W
I (G
rou
p 1
P
roje
cts
)C
ap
X 2
02
0
$2
bn
24
0 m
ile D
C lin
e f
rom
Ma
ine
to
ou
tsid
e B
osto
n,
MA
with
po
ssib
le
ext
en
sio
ns t
o C
an
ad
a to
su
ppo
rt w
ind
inte
gra
tion
No
rth
east
En
erg
y Lin
k
$2
.6 b
n7
00
mile
s o
f 76
5 k
V lo
op
to
link M
ich
igan
an
d O
hio
fo
r re
liabili
ty a
nd
re
ne
wa
ble
de
velo
pm
en
tM
ich
iga
n 7
65
kV
Backb
one
$1
0 -
$1
2 b
n3
,000
mile
s o
f 7
65
kV
fro
m D
ako
tas to
outs
ide
Chic
ag
o, IL
to s
upp
ort
w
ind
in
teg
ratio
nG
ree
n P
ow
er
Exp
ress
Co
st
Descri
pti
on
Pro
ject
Nam
e
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
20
Mark
et
Dyn
am
ics
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
21
Sh
ort
-Term
RE
C P
rices C
an
Be V
ola
tile
•P
rem
ium
s a
bove
mark
et energ
y and c
apacity
prices w
ill b
e n
eeded to p
ay
for
hig
her-
cost re
new
able
re
sourc
es
•T
he R
EC
prices n
eeded to s
upport
each r
enew
able
technolo
gy
can r
ange fro
m $
0 to leve
ls c
lose to
the a
ltern
ative
com
plia
nce c
osts
of each r
egio
n –
RE
C p
ricin
g is local and n
o n
ational m
ark
et until new
le
gis
lation is p
assed
•In
additio
n to r
egula
tory
uncert
ain
ties, sig
nific
ant changes in c
arb
on, energ
y, c
apacity
costs
and
subsid
ies c
an s
ignifi
cantly
affect th
e R
EC
sm
ark
et
•T
he inte
rpla
y betw
een c
arb
on, energ
y and R
EC
mark
ets
will
have
sig
nific
ant im
plic
ations for
futu
re
RE
C p
rices
Sam
ple
Le
ve
lized
All-I
n C
os
ts f
or
New
Cap
acit
y(E
xclu
din
g F
irm
ing
, S
tora
ge,
an
d T
ran
sm
issio
n C
osts
)
$52
5
$0
$25
$50
$75
$10
0
$12
5
$15
0
$17
5
$47
5
$50
0$50
1.7
$14
5.3
$16
2.5
$98.3
$84.6
$87.5
$66.7
$82.4
$76.8
$72.8
$98.6
$71.2
$50.4
Bio
mass
CC
Adv.
CC
Conv.
Coal
CT
Adv.
CT
Conv.
Coal
Seq.
Nucle
ar
PV
Win
d(3
2%
c.f
.)W
ind
(42%
c.f
.)
2008$/MWh
CO
2 C
ost
Fuel C
osts
VO
M
FO
M
Capital C
osts
Tota
l w
ith
PT
C
Non-d
isp
atc
hable
-m
ay n
eed
additio
nal sto
rage
and
fir
min
g
Dis
patc
ha
ble
-no
fir
min
g r
equir
ed
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
22
Dep
ressed
En
erg
y P
rices a
re W
orr
yin
g In
vesto
rs o
f W
ind
an
d
Co
nven
tio
nal R
eso
urc
es
•T
exas,
whe
re a
dditio
ns o
f w
ind c
apacity
have o
uts
trip
ped t
ransm
issio
n a
dditio
ns,
show
s a
n e
xam
ple
of lo
caliz
ed p
rice d
epre
ssio
n.
•A
s s
how
n b
elo
w,
in 2
008,
when W
est T
exas incre
menta
l w
ind a
dditio
ns
surp
assed a
2,0
00 M
W t
hre
shold
, th
e im
plie
d h
eat ra
te h
ad d
ropped a
bout 30%
over
the
last
yea
r.W
est
ER
CO
T a
nd
ER
CO
T G
en
era
tor
Pri
ce
s
an
d C
um
ula
tive
ER
CO
T I
ns
talled
Win
d C
ap
acit
y b
y O
nli
ne
Date
0
1,0
00
2,0
00
3,0
00
4,0
00
5,0
00
6,0
00
Jan-06
Mar-06
May-06
Jul-06
Sep-06
Nov-06
Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
West ERCOT New Wind Capacity (Cumulative MW)
0246810
12
Implied Heat Rate ERCOT and West ERCOT (MMBTU/MWh)
West E
RC
OT
Im
plie
d
Heat R
ate
(R
ight A
xis
)
Insta
lled W
ind C
apacity
in E
RC
OT
West Z
one*
(Left
Axis
)
*Only
inclu
des n
ew
win
d c
apacity
in E
RC
OT
West Z
one w
ith o
nlin
e d
ate
s b
etw
een 2
006 a
nd 2
009Y
TD
.
Sourc
e: G
enera
tor
prices f
rom
ER
CO
T. Insta
lled w
ind c
apacity
fro
m E
nerg
y V
elo
city
as o
f A
pr.
30, 2009.
ER
CO
T Im
plie
d H
eat
Rate
(R
ight A
xis
)
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
23
Rate
Im
pact
Th
resh
old
fo
r R
PS
None e
xplic
itly
sta
ted
$20/M
Wh T
ier
1 n
on-s
ola
r ($
40/M
Wh in
201
1),
$1
5/M
Wh T
ier
2,
$45/M
Wh in
200
8 f
or
sola
r an
d d
eclin
ing b
y $5/M
Wh p
er
year
until $5/M
Wh fix
ed.
Com
plia
nce c
an b
e d
ela
yed if
RE
Cs
cost
is >
1%
of to
tal annu
al ele
ctr
icity
sale
s
reve
nu
es (
curr
ently
only
sola
r, b
ut
will
in
clu
de o
ther
rene
wable
s)
20%
by
202
2
Mary
lan
d
Altern
ative
com
plia
nce r
ate
dete
rmin
ed
by
com
mis
sio
n o
n a
case-b
y-case
basis
None
None
None
None
Alt
ern
ati
ve C
om
pli
an
ce P
aym
en
t
Am
ount
dete
rmin
ed b
y com
mis
sio
n o
n a
case-b
y-case b
asis
4%
of
ann
ual re
ven
ue r
equirem
ent
25%
by
202
5 f
or
Larg
e
Utilit
ies
5-1
0%
by
20
25 f
or
Sm
all
Utilit
ies
Ore
go
n
Not
passed o
nto
custo
mers
.
For
sola
r: $
450/M
Wh in
200
9,
$4
00/M
Wh
in 2
01
0 &
20
11;
decre
asin
g b
y $5
0/M
Wh
eve
ry t
wo y
ears
until 2024.
For
oth
er
ren
ew
able
s:
$45/M
Wh, adju
ste
d
ann
ually
by
CP
I
3%
of
nonre
ne
wable
port
folio
12.5
% b
y 2
02
5
(just
pass
ed in M
ay
200
8)
Oh
io
None e
xplic
itly
sta
ted
1%
of
nonre
ne
wable
port
folio
in 2
006,
incre
asin
g b
y 0.2
% p
er
year
up t
o 2
.0%
in
201
1 a
nd b
eyon
d
20%
by
202 f
or
IOU
s10%
by
202
0 f
or
Coo
ps
New
M
exic
o
$40/M
Wh if not
limite
d b
y ra
te im
pact
The lesser
of
a 0
.5%
incre
ment
on p
rior
year
rate
or
0.5
% c
um
ula
tive
rela
tive
to
base y
ear
(May
20
07)
2%
by
20
08
10%
by
201
525%
by
202
5(in-s
tate
resourc
es o
nly
befo
re 2
012)
Illi
no
is
Com
mis
sio
n m
ay
ass
ess
the v
alu
e o
f R
EC
snecess
ary
to h
ave
com
plie
d w
ith
RP
S a
nd im
pose a
n a
dm
inis
trative
fee
equ
al to
all
or
part
of
that
valu
e
2%
of
nonre
ne
wable
port
folio
20%
by
202
0 f
or
IOU
s
10%
by
202
0 f
or
PO
Us
Co
lora
do
Pen
alt
y f
or
no
t m
eeti
ng
RP
SC
ost
Cap
/ R
ate
Im
pact
Lim
itR
PS
Req
uir
em
en
tsS
tate
Som
e s
tate
s h
ave s
et
rate
im
pact th
reshold
s for
meeting R
PS
. T
ho
ugh N
ew
Engla
nd
sta
tes d
o n
ot have s
pecific
rate
im
pact th
reshold
s, ra
te p
aye
rs t
ole
rance m
ay b
e t
este
d
if c
osts
do n
ot de
cre
ase o
ver
tim
e.
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
24
Su
mm
ary
of
Ch
allen
ges f
or
Ren
ew
ab
le D
evelo
pm
en
t
•F
inancin
g o
ptio
ns h
ave b
ecom
e m
ore
lim
ited.
•R
enew
able
cre
dit p
ricin
g is lo
cal and n
o n
ational m
ark
et until
new
legis
lation is p
assed
•R
ate
im
pact lim
itations/tole
rance in s
om
e s
tate
s a
re s
ignific
ant
•N
IMB
Y r
eactio
n is s
erious p
roble
m in w
ind a
nd s
ola
r in
cert
ain
are
as
•T
ransm
issio
n c
onstr
ain
ts c
ontinue to s
ignific
antly lim
it the
deliv
ery
of re
new
able
energ
y
•R
eduction o
f short
-term
energ
y p
rices c
ould
cre
ate
sig
nific
ant
concern
s for
exis
ting c
yclin
g a
nd b
aselo
ad
pla
nts
.
•In
tegra
tion c
ost associa
ted a
ccom
modating a
larg
e a
mount of
inte
rmitte
nt re
sourc
es is s
till
gre
atly u
ncert
ain
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
25
Cu
rren
t B
ratt
leA
cti
vit
ies in
Ren
ew
ab
le E
nerg
y
•E
valu
ati
ng
th
e f
inan
cia
l ri
sks
for
develo
pers
under
unce
rtain
energ
y, r
en
ew
able
cre
dit a
nd
carb
on p
rices
•E
valu
ati
ng
bid
off
ers
from
supplie
rs
•E
sti
mati
ng
th
e i
ncre
men
tal
dem
an
d f
or
mo
re f
lexib
le g
en
era
tio
n
resourc
es a
nd t
he c
ost
of
those r
esourc
es w
hen inte
gra
ting larg
eam
ount
of
inte
rmitte
nt
rene
wa
ble
s
•E
valu
ati
ng
ec
on
om
ic d
evelo
pm
en
t im
pact
of
rene
wab
le e
nerg
y pro
jects
•E
valu
ati
ng
th
e i
mp
act
of
RP
S o
n r
eta
il t
ari
ff
•E
valu
ati
ng
th
e e
co
no
mic
ris
ks a
ssocia
ted
with v
ari
ous p
roje
ct
ow
ners
hip
and f
inancia
l str
uctu
res
•E
valu
ati
ng
th
e e
co
no
mic
ben
efi
ts o
f tr
an
sm
issio
n o
ptio
ns w
hen
inte
rcon
nectin
g r
ene
wa
ble
s
•E
sti
mati
ng
th
e b
en
efi
t o
f p
um
ped
sto
rag
e a
s inte
rmitte
nt
resourc
es
are
add
ed
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
26
Th
e B
ratt
le G
rou
p –
Serv
ice
s t
o E
nerg
y C
om
pan
ies
•C
lim
ate
Ch
an
ge
Po
lic
y a
nd
P
lan
nin
g
•C
ost of C
apital
•D
em
and F
ore
casting a
nd W
eath
er
Norm
aliz
ation
•D
em
and R
esponse a
nd E
nerg
y
Effic
iency
•E
lectr
icit
y M
ark
et
Mo
de
lin
g
•E
nerg
y A
sse
t V
alu
ati
on
•E
nerg
y C
on
tract
Litig
ation
•E
nvironm
enta
l C
om
plia
nce
•F
uel and P
ow
er
Pro
cure
men
t
•In
centive R
egula
tion
•R
ate
Desig
n,
Co
st
All
oca
tio
n, a
nd
R
ate
Str
uctu
re
•R
eg
ula
tory
Str
ate
gy a
nd
Lit
igati
on
S
up
po
rt
•R
en
ew
ab
les
•R
esourc
e P
lannin
g
•R
eta
il A
ccess a
nd R
estr
uctu
ring
•R
isk M
anagem
ent
•M
ark
et-
Based R
ate
s
•M
ark
et
Desig
n a
nd
Co
mp
eti
tive
An
aly
sis
•M
erg
ers
and A
cq
uis
itio
ns
•T
ran
sm
issio
n
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
27
Con
tact
Judy
Chan
g–
En
ergy
Pra
ctic
e
at
jud
y.c
han
g@
bra
ttle
.com
44 B
ratt
le S
tree
t, C
am
bri
dge,
MA
02138
617-8
64-7
900
CA
MB
RID
GE
S
AN
FR
AN
CIS
CO
W
AS
HIN
GT
ON
B
RU
SS
EL
S
L
ON
DO
N
Th
e B
ratt
le G
roup p
rovid
es c
onsu
ltin
g a
nd e
xper
t te
stim
ony i
n e
conom
ics,
fin
ance
, an
d r
egula
tion t
o c
orp
ora
tio
ns,
law
fir
ms,
and
gover
nm
ents
aro
un
d t
he
worl
d.
We
com
bin
e in
-dep
th i
ndu
stry
exper
ience
, ri
goro
us
anal
yse
s, a
nd
pri
nci
ple
d t
echniq
ues
to h
elp c
lien
ts a
nsw
er c
om
ple
x e
con
om
ic a
nd
fin
anci
al q
ues
tion
s in
lit
igat
ion
and
reg
ula
tion,
dev
elop
str
ateg
ies
for
chan
gin
g m
arket
s, a
nd m
ake
crit
ical
bu
sines
s dec
isio
ns.
We
are
dis
tinguis
hed
by:
•
Th
oug
htf
ul,
tim
ely,
and
tra
nsp
aren
t an
alyse
s o
f in
du
stri
es a
nd
iss
ues
•
Aff
ilia
tio
ns
wit
h l
ead
ing
in
tern
atio
nal
aca
dem
ics
and
hig
hly
cre
den
tial
ed i
nd
ust
ry s
pec
iali
sts
•
Cle
arly
pre
sen
ted
res
ult
s th
at w
ith
stan
d c
riti
cal
revie
w
Copyri
ght ©
2008 T
he B
ratt
le G
roup,
Inc.
Anti
trust
/Co
mp
etit
ion
Co
mm
erci
al D
am
ages
En
vir
on
menta
l L
itig
atio
n a
nd
Reg
ula
tio
nF
ore
nsi
c E
cono
mic
sIn
tell
ect
ual
Pro
per
tyIn
tern
atio
nal
Arb
itra
tio
nIn
tern
atio
nal
Tra
de
Pro
duct
Lia
bil
ity
Reg
ula
tory
Fin
ance
and
Acco
unti
ng
Ris
k M
anag
em
ent
Secu
riti
esT
axU
tili
ty R
egula
tory
Po
licy
and
Rat
em
akin
gV
alu
atio
nE
lect
ric
Po
wer
Fin
anci
al I
nst
ituti
ons
Nat
ura
l G
asP
etro
leu
mP
har
mac
euti
cals
, M
edic
al D
evic
es,
and
Bio
tech
no
log
yT
elec
om
mu
nic
ati
ons
and
Med
iaT
ran
spo
rtat
ion
Up
da
te o
n R
en
ew
ab
le E
ne
rgy M
ark
et
Tre
nd
s
Pre
pare
d b
y:
Ju
dy C
han
g
Co
nfe
ren
ce o
n:
Fin
an
cin
g C
lean
En
erg
y P
roje
cts
un
der
the
Rein
vestm
en
t A
ct
of
2009
Th
urs
da
y,
Ju
ne 1
1, 2009
UM
ass C
lub
225 F
ranklin
Str
eet
Bosto
n
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
29
Ag
en
da
•O
verv
iew
of
ren
ew
ab
le e
nerg
y d
em
an
d a
nd
m
ark
et
dri
vers
•N
ew
En
gla
nd
’s d
em
an
d a
nd
su
pp
ly b
ala
nce
•T
ran
sm
iss
ion
, o
ne o
f th
e m
ost
sig
nif
ican
t ch
all
en
ges f
or
ren
ew
ab
le r
eso
urc
es
•O
ther
imp
ort
an
t m
ark
et
dyn
am
ics f
or
ren
ew
ab
le
en
erg
y
•T
he B
ratt
le G
rou
p’s
recen
t exp
eri
en
ce
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
30
Main
Dri
vers
of
Ren
ew
ab
le E
nerg
y I
nvestm
en
ts
Po
liti
cal
•E
nerg
y security
& d
esire to d
ivers
ify
from
petr
ole
um
-based f
uels
•C
limate
change a
nd r
ene
wable
energ
y ta
rgets
•N
ational and s
tate
energ
y p
olic
ies
Eco
no
mic
•E
nerg
y p
rices, div
ers
ity o
f fu
els
, p
ote
ntial cost of carb
on e
mis
sio
ns
•F
edera
l and s
tate
fin
ancia
l subsid
ies for
rene
wable
pow
er
•T
ariffs,
cost
recovery
fo
r po
we
r p
urc
hase c
ontr
acts
, risk a
llocation
•P
roje
ct costs
inclu
din
g c
osts
of m
ate
rials
, financin
g, and labor
•G
reen c
ert
ific
ate
mark
ets
, R
PS
-dri
ven a
nd v
olu
nta
ry
Oth
ers
•F
inancia
l m
ark
et
(cre
dit c
runch)
•R
esourc
e a
vaila
bili
ty
•E
xchange r
ate
s
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
31
Th
e R
en
ew
ab
le P
ort
folio
Sta
nd
ard
(R
PS
) M
ap
of
the U
.S.
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
32
Ren
ew
ab
le R
eso
urc
e M
ap
s f
or
the U
.S.
Win
dS
ola
r
Bio
mass
Geo
therm
al
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
33
Ad
dit
ion
al R
en
ew
ab
le C
ap
acit
y N
eed
ed
to
Meet
RP
S
Sourc
e:
Rya
n W
iser
and G
ale
n B
arb
ose,
La
wre
nce B
erk
ele
y N
ational La
b,
April 2008
La
wre
nce
Be
rke
ley
Nation
al Labo
rato
ry e
stim
ate
s
tha
t 60
GW
of
ne
w r
ene
wab
le e
ne
rgy
ca
pa
city
will
be
ne
eded
by
202
5.
Tha
t n
um
be
r in
cre
ase
s to
77
GW
by
2025
if inclu
din
g
lon
g-t
erm
go
als
fro
m v
ariou
s s
tate
s.
43
518
357
317
.4W
ax
ma
n
15
026
186
721
.8M
ark
ey
95
19
763
812
.1B
ing
am
an
N/A
20
869
9N
/AB
ase
Case
CO
2
Em
issio
ns
Red
ucti
on
in
2030
(millio
n
metr
ic
ton
s)
Qu
alify
ing
R
en
ew
ab
le
Cap
acit
y in
2030 (
GW
)
Qu
alify
ing
R
en
ew
ab
le
Gen
era
tio
n
in 2
030
(TW
h)
Peak
Eff
ecti
ve
RE
S (
%)
Case
As
su
mp
tio
n
Co
mp
ara
tive
Fin
din
gs
of
the
Pro
po
se
d R
ES
Le
gis
lati
on
Sourc
e:
Sulli
van,
Log
an,
Bird,
an
d S
hort
, “C
om
para
tive
Analy
sis
of
Thre
e P
ropose
d F
edera
l R
ene
wable
Ele
ctr
icity
Sta
ndard
s,
NR
EL,
May
20
09,
pag
e v
.
If n
ot
cou
ntin
g e
xistin
g c
on
ven
tiona
l h
ydro
fa
cili
tie
s a
s
qu
alif
ied
re
ne
wab
le r
eso
urc
es,
NR
EL
estim
ate
s t
ha
t a
bou
t 15
0G
Wof n
ew
rene
wa
ble
ene
rgy
ca
pa
city
will
be
need
ed
by
20
30
.
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
34
U.S
. F
ed
era
l In
cen
tives f
or
Ren
ew
ab
le P
ow
er
•P
roductio
n t
ax c
redit (
PT
C)
of 2.1
cent/
kW
h for
win
d,
sola
r, g
eoth
erm
al, a
nd
“clo
sed-l
oo
p”
bio
-en
erg
y fa
cili
ties,
lasts
10 y
ears
once a
wa
rded
►T
ax-e
quity
str
uctu
res w
ere
fo
rme
d to t
ake a
dvanta
ge o
f th
e t
ax c
redit –
but
most
tax-
equity investo
rs a
re n
o longer
in t
he m
ark
et
to s
up
port
rene
wable
pro
jects
post th
e
2008 fin
ancia
l crisis
•A
merican R
ecovery
and R
ein
vestm
ent
Act
of
2009 (
“AR
RA
”) e
nhanced
develo
pers
’abili
ty t
o r
ece
ive t
ax
cre
dits v
ia a
n I
nvestm
ent
Tax
Cre
dit (
ITC
)and
by
allo
win
g c
om
panie
s t
o b
e d
irectly
reim
bu
rsed t
hro
ug
h g
rants
•T
his
polic
y m
ay
de
lay
som
e p
roje
ct
duri
ng t
ransitio
n p
eri
od w
hile
the p
roce
ss f
or
dis
burs
ing f
un
ds a
re s
till
bein
g w
ork
ed o
ut
•U
sin
g a
n I
TC
as a
fin
ancia
l in
centive m
ay
als
o lead t
o s
om
e c
ontr
acting issues
aro
un
d ince
ntive f
or
po
wer
pro
duction.
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
35
Ren
ew
ab
le E
nerg
y C
red
its a
nd
Tra
din
g
•R
enew
able
Energ
y C
redits (
RE
Cs)
can c
ontr
ibute
sig
nific
antly
to t
he
overa
ll pro
fita
bili
ty o
f a
rene
wable
pro
ject.
►B
ut U
.S.
RE
C m
ark
ets
are
fra
gm
ente
d
and c
an b
e q
uite v
ola
tile
, w
ith R
EC
prices v
ary
ing d
ram
atically
acro
ss
regio
ns a
nd o
ver
tim
e.
►T
wo d
istinct segm
ents
: C
om
plia
nce
mark
ets
(sta
te R
PS
) and V
olu
nta
ry
(“gre
en p
ow
er”
) m
ark
ets
. V
olu
nta
ry
mark
ets
tend to h
ave low
er
prices, of
cours
e.
•T
he v
alu
e o
f R
EC
sin
com
plia
nce
mark
ets
can
depend g
rea
tly o
n t
he
short
-te
rm r
enew
able
s s
upply
(vs.
RP
S),
whic
h m
ay c
hange o
ver
tim
e
•R
enew
able
energ
y cost vs.
ma
rket
price for
“conventional”
pow
er
als
o
affects
long-t
erm
RE
C p
rices
Illu
str
ative E
xam
ple
s
So
urc
e:
Evo
lution
Ma
rke
ts
Reg
ion
/Pro
du
ct
Te
rmP
ric
eD
ate
20
07
$5
1.0
0
Apr-
08
20
08
$5
0.5
0
Nov-0
7
20
08
$2
5.0
0
Jul-
08
20
08
$2
0.0
0
May-
09
20
07
$5
5.0
0
Apr-
08
20
08
$5
4.0
0
Ma
r-0
8
20
08
$4
5.5
0
Jul-
08
20
08
$2
4.0
0
May-
09
20
09
$3
1.0
0
Ju
n-0
9
2nd h
alf
20
07
$5.2
5
Fe
b-0
8
20
08
$4.0
0
Jul-
08
20
08
$1.0
3
Ju
n-0
9
20
09
$1.3
5
Ju
n-0
9
New
Jers
ey (
So
lar)
20
07
/08
$2
65
.00
Jul-
08
New
Jers
ey C
lass
I2
009
$3.5
0
Ju
n-0
9
New
Jers
ey C
lass
I2
010
$1
1.0
0
Ju
n-0
9
Pe
nn
sylv
an
ia (
Tie
r I)
20
07
/08
$8.5
0
Ju
n-0
8
Co
nn
ecti
cu
t (C
lass
I)
Ma
ssa
ch
us
ett
s (
Cla
ss
I)
Te
xas
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
36
Cu
rren
t W
ind
In
du
str
y T
ren
d
•C
on
so
lid
ati
on
. W
ind d
evelo
pers
have b
een c
onsolid
ating s
uch that th
e larg
est 3
ow
ners
ow
n a
bo
ut 60
% o
f U
.S.
win
d c
apacity
•L
on
g-t
erm
PP
A.
Most p
roje
cts
obta
in 1
0 to 2
0 y
ear
po
we
r pu
rcha
se c
ontr
acts
fr
om
utilit
ies
•A
nch
or
Te
nan
t M
od
el
for
Merc
han
t T
ran
sm
iss
ion
. F
ER
C h
as a
ppro
ved the
first
“anchor
tenant”
meth
od o
f ne
w t
ransm
issio
n d
evelo
pm
ent –
as a
n a
ltern
ative to
open s
eason for
merc
hant
transm
issio
n to r
esolv
e the “
chic
ken-a
nd-e
gg”
challe
nge
(Chin
ook P
ow
er
and Z
eph
yr
Po
wer
Tra
nsm
issio
n)
•R
eg
ula
tio
n a
nd
En
erg
y B
ala
nce
Need
to
Acc
om
pan
y L
arg
e W
ind
In
sta
lla
tio
ns.
M
ost R
TO
shave
recogniz
ed that
addin
g a
larg
e a
mount o
f w
ind o
nto
exis
ting
sys
tem
will
require a
dditio
nal energ
y bala
ncin
g r
esourc
es, in
clu
din
g a
dditio
nal
pro
vid
ers
of
regu
lation, lo
ad-f
ollo
win
g, fa
st
ram
pin
g c
apabili
ties
•E
nerg
y S
tora
ge
. A
dditio
nal sto
rage c
apabili
ties w
ould
be a
natu
ral “p
art
ne
r”fo
r w
ind r
esou
rces,
but m
ost
sto
rage
technolo
gie
s a
re e
xpensiv
e to d
evelo
p
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
37
Dis
trib
ute
d g
en
era
tio
n:
genera
tion a
nd
consum
ptio
n a
t th
e c
usto
mer
sid
e
of
the m
ete
r.
•F
inancia
l In
cen
tives inclu
de R
PS
with s
ola
r carv
e-o
ut
an
d t
ax incentives
(federa
l in
vestm
ent
tax
cre
dit o
f 30%
, specia
l re
ne
wa
ble
cre
dits
for
dis
trib
ute
d g
en
era
tion,
an
d v
arious s
tate
tax
cre
dit ince
ntive
s).
•R
egu
lato
ry I
nfr
astr
uctu
re c
overing a
ccess t
o t
he g
rid (
inte
rconnection
sta
ndard
s),
net
mete
ring,
and r
ate
desig
n.
►42 S
tate
s h
ave e
sta
blis
hed r
ule
s o
f N
et
Me
tering t
hat allo
w o
wne
rs o
f sola
r sys
tem
s t
he s
ale
of e
xcess e
lectr
icity
back t
o t
he g
rid. T
hese p
rog
ram
s v
ary
w
idely
dependin
g o
n the
sta
te.
Wh
ole
sale
mark
et:
centr
al s
tation g
en
era
tion f
or
dis
trib
ution a
nd s
ale
to
utilit
ies.
•D
riven b
y R
PS
, part
of
utilit
ies’supply
port
folio
•U
tilit
ies in C
alif
orn
ia a
nd N
eva
da h
ave b
een s
ignin
g larg
e s
ola
rpo
we
r contr
acts
–but
sola
r pro
jects
face s
imila
r cha
llen
ges a
s w
ind
Reg
ula
tory
Dri
vers
fo
r S
ola
r P
V a
nd
So
lar
Th
erm
al In
vestm
en
ts
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
38
“S
ola
r C
arv
e-O
ut”
Pro
vid
ing
Op
po
rtu
nit
ies in
So
me S
tate
s
Cert
ain
sta
tes h
ave
set
cert
ain
re
gu
lato
ry e
mp
has
is o
n s
ola
r e
nerg
y i
nve
stm
en
t.
TB
DT
BD
0.5
% b
y 2
025
12
.5 b
y 2
025
Oh
io
11
% b
y 2
022
5,8
80
MW
by
201
5
8%
by
20
20
12
.5%
by
202
1 (
Inve
sto
r o
wn
ed
util
itie
s)
10
% b
y 2
018
(P
ublic
ow
ne
d u
tiliti
es)
20
% b
y 2
020
(In
vesto
r o
wn
ed
utilit
ies)
10
% b
y 2
020
(co
-ops)
22
.5%
by
202
1
23
.8%
by
202
5
20
% b
y 2
015
9.5
% b
y 2
022
20
% b
y 2
019
20
% b
y 2
020
(In
vesto
r o
wn
ed
utilit
ies)
10
% b
y 2
020
(P
ublic
ow
ne
d u
tiliti
es)
15
% b
y 2
025
To
tal
RP
S R
eq
uir
em
en
t
6,7
00
55
0T
ota
l
1,6
00
11
04
.5%
dis
trib
ute
d g
en
era
tion
, no
t sp
eci
fica
lly s
ola
rA
rizo
na
0.3
86
% b
y 20
21
1.1
x m
ultip
lier
for
sola
r b
y 20
09
2x
mu
ltip
lier
for
no
n-w
ind
0.5
% P
V b
y 2
02
0
0.2
% b
y 2
018
4%
by
20
20
2.1
2%
by
202
1
0.3
% b
y 2
014
1%
by
20
15
2.4
x m
ultip
lier
for
cen
tra
l PV
2.4
5x
mu
ltip
lier
for
dis
trib
ute
d P
V
2%
by
20
22
2%
PV
by
20
19
3x
mu
ltip
lier
for
PV
insta
lled
be
fore
20
15
0.8
% b
y 2
02
01
.25
x m
ulti
plie
r fo
r in
-sta
te3
x fo
r so
lar
up
to
pro
jects
on
lin
e b
y 20
15
So
lar
Re
qu
ire
me
nt
/ G
oa
l
0.5
NA
25564
21
0
476
14
0.529
20
10 (
MW
)
54
NA
69
0
28
0
42
0
1,6
00
35
18
0
1,5
00
19
0
16
0
20
25 (
MW
)
Wa
sh
ing
ton
D.C
.
Te
xas
Pe
nn
sylv
an
ia
No
rth
Ca
roli
na
New
Me
xic
o
New
Je
rse
y
New
Ham
ps
hir
e
Ne
va
da
Ma
ryla
nd
De
law
are
Co
lora
do
Sta
te
Estim
ate
s f
rom
Rya
n W
ise
r and
Ga
len
Ba
rbo
se,
Re
ne
wa
ble
Po
rtfo
lio S
tan
da
rds in U
.S.:
A S
tatu
s R
epo
rt w
ith D
ata
th
roug
h 2
00
7, L
aw
ren
ce B
erk
ele
y
Na
tio
na
l La
b, A
pril 2
00
8, sup
ple
me
nte
d w
ith
up
da
ted
info
rmatio
n g
ath
ere
d f
rom
Bra
ttle
.
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
39
Re
ne
wa
ble
En
erg
y M
ark
et
in N
ew
En
gla
nd
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
40
Dem
an
d f
or
Ren
ew
ab
le E
nerg
y in
New
En
gla
nd
•F
ive o
f th
e s
ix N
ew
Engla
nd s
tate
s
have m
andate
s t
o s
erv
e a
po
rtio
n o
f re
tail
sale
s w
ith r
enew
able
genera
tion*
•C
lass 1
(“n
ew
”) r
enew
able
re
quirem
ent
will
drive r
ene
wable
develo
pm
ent
•B
ecause o
f th
e o
verlaps in s
tate
polic
ies, th
e m
ark
et fo
r R
EC
sbehaves m
ore
or
less lik
e a
sin
gle
N
ew
Engla
nd m
ark
et
•O
ve
rall
dem
and f
or
RE
Cs
is
expecte
d t
o q
uad
ruple
betw
een 2
008
and 2
020
So
urc
e:
20
08 C
EL
T R
epo
rt F
ore
cast
fo
r “B
ase
Cas
e”
Gro
wth
rat
e fo
r yea
rs b
eyo
nd
20
17 i
s b
ased
on C
EL
T R
epo
rt’s
av
erag
e gro
wth
rat
es
No
tes:
Dem
and
acco
unts
fo
r es
tim
ated
red
uct
ions
fro
m R
efe
ren
ce D
SM
fo
reca
st
Mas
sachu
sett
s d
em
and
in
corp
ora
tes
the
incr
eas
ed C
lass
1 R
PS
req
uir
em
ent
fro
m t
he
20
08
Gre
en C
om
mu
nit
ies
Act
*V
erm
ont
has
a v
olu
nta
ry r
en
ew
able
po
rtfo
lio
go
al
New
En
gla
nd
’s D
ema
nd
fo
r C
lass
1 R
enew
ab
le E
ner
gy
CT
ME
MA
NH
RI
VT
-
5,0
00
10
,00
0
15
,00
0
20
,00
0
25
,00
0
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Annual Renewable Demand (GWh)
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
41
Exis
tin
g a
nd
Pro
po
sed
Ren
ew
ab
le R
eso
urc
es i
n
New
En
gla
nd
•B
iom
ass d
om
inate
s in e
xistin
g r
esourc
es (
~500M
W)
►E
xis
ting b
iom
ass that
have q
ualif
ied o
r in
the p
rocess o
f qualif
ying a
s C
lass 1
in
Connecticut, M
assachusetts o
r M
ain
e’s
are
inclu
ded a
s “
exis
ting b
iom
ass r
esourc
es”
belo
w
•Q
ualif
ied im
port
s f
rom
NY
and Q
uebec a
re m
ostly
win
d r
eso
urc
es (
>300 M
W)
•T
here
are
sig
nific
ant
num
ber
of
pro
pose
d n
ew
re
ne
wa
ble
pro
jects
(>
3,5
00 M
W)
•N
ot
all
of
the p
ropose
d p
roje
cts
will
be b
uilt
•E
very
pro
ject
faces r
isks a
ssocia
ted w
ith:
►O
bta
inin
g e
nvironm
enta
l and r
eg
ula
tory
pe
rmits
►In
terc
onnection a
gre
em
en
ts, costs
associa
ted w
ith a
ny
transm
issio
n infr
astr
uctu
re
needed to s
uppo
rt r
enew
able
ene
rgy d
evelo
pm
ent
►F
inancin
g for
ren
ew
able
energ
y h
as b
ecom
e incre
asin
gly
difficult, p
art
icula
rly
giv
en t
he
2008 e
conom
ic d
ow
ntu
rn
►“N
IMB
Y”
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
42
Ren
ew
ab
le P
ote
nti
al in
New
En
gla
nd
•T
echnic
al pote
ntial show
s that
New
Engla
nd h
as a
n a
bundance o
f re
sourc
es
•If d
evelo
ped,
the r
ene
wable
pote
ntial fa
r e
xceeds r
egio
nal R
PS
requirem
ent
•M
ost abundant
resourc
e is w
ind
►W
ind is g
reate
st
in M
ain
e, N
ew
Ham
pshire a
nd V
erm
ont, a
nd o
ff-s
hore
►A
dditio
nal w
ind is a
vaila
ble
in N
ew
York
and E
aste
rn C
anadia
n P
rovi
nces
New
En
gla
nd
Ren
ewab
le R
esou
rce
Tec
hn
ical
Pote
nti
al
(Na
mep
late
MW
Cap
aci
ty, ex
cep
t fo
r sm
all
hyd
ro)
* H
yd
ro, la
nd
fill
and
fu
el c
ell
po
tenti
al l
evel
s ar
e se
t at
th
e am
ount
of
exis
ting s
up
ply
plu
s p
ropo
sed
pro
ject
s
Sou
rces
: O
n-s
hore
Win
d:
Rep
ort
Of
Th
e G
ov
ern
or’
s T
ask F
orc
e O
n W
ind
Po
wer
Dev
elop
men
t: F
ind
ing C
om
mon
Gro
und
For
A C
om
mon
Pu
rpose
, F
inal
Rep
ort
," S
tate
of
Mai
ne,
Feb
ruar
y 2
008
Off
-sh
ore
Win
d:
"Ren
ewab
le E
ner
gy R
esou
rces
in
New
En
gla
nd…
Wil
l T
hey
be
Th
ere
Wh
en W
e N
eed
Th
em?,
" B
ob
Gra
ce, P
rese
nte
d t
oN
ort
hea
st E
ner
gy a
nd C
om
mer
ce A
ssoci
atio
n;
15th
Ann
ual
New
En
gla
nd
En
ergy C
on
fere
nce
, M
ay 1
4, 20
08
. B
ased
on N
RE
L d
ata
Bio
mas
s/b
iofu
el:
"S
ecu
rin
g A
Pla
ce F
or
Bio
mas
s In
Th
e N
ort
hea
st U
nit
ed S
tate
s:A
Rev
iew
Of
Ren
ewab
le E
ner
gy A
nd
Rel
ated
Poli
cies
," X
ener
gy,
Mar
ch 3
1, 20
03
Note
: T
he
level
of
supp
ly d
oes
not
yet
sp
ecif
ical
ly c
on
sid
er h
igh
er c
ost
res
ou
rces
are
more
un
lik
ely t
o b
e n
eed
ed/b
uil
t.
Sta
teC
TM
AM
EN
HR
IV
TT
ota
l N
E
Landfi
ll G
as*
52
18
32
30
10
115
Win
d25
90
15,3
20
1,2
24
01
,947
9,4
17
Off
shore
Win
d0
6,5
66
1,2
11
0431
08,2
08
Hydro
*3
89
422
532
163
Bio
mas
s/B
iofu
els
235
29
844
6328
35
182
1,5
23
Fu
el C
ell
s*1
53
00
00
0153
Tota
l4
68
7,7
91
7,0
73
1,5
75
501
2,1
71
19,5
79
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
43
Su
pp
ly a
nd
Dem
an
d B
ala
nc
e i
n P
lan
nin
g H
ori
zo
n is
Un
cert
ain
•N
ew
Engla
nd c
ould
meet R
PS
requirem
ents
if deve
lopm
ent activi
ties c
ontinue to b
e a
ggre
ssiv
e
and h
urd
les c
an b
e r
educed
•S
upply
and d
em
and b
ala
nce s
how
s the im
pact of uncert
ain
ties a
round futu
re p
roje
ct
deve
lopm
ent
Note
: T
he
supp
ly l
evel
does
not
con
sid
er h
igh
er c
ost
res
ou
rces
are
more
unli
kel
y t
o b
e n
eed
ed/b
uil
t. Q
ual
ifie
d i
mp
ort
s ar
e in
clud
ed.
0
5,0
00
10
,00
0
15
,00
0
20
,00
0
25
,00
0
30
,00
0
35
,00
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Generation (GWh)
01,0
00
2,0
00
3,0
00
4,0
00
5,0
00
6,0
00
7,0
00
Capacity (MW)
New
En
gla
nd
Cla
ss I
Ren
ewa
ble
Res
ou
rce D
ema
nd
New
En
gla
nd
Cla
ss I
Ren
ewa
ble
Res
ou
rce
Su
pp
ly
Ba
sed
on
exis
tin
g a
nd
pro
po
sed
pro
ject
s
Ran
ge
of
sup
ply
unce
rtain
ty
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
44
Tra
ns
mis
sio
n,
a C
ha
lle
ng
efo
r R
en
ew
ab
le P
ow
er
De
ve
lop
me
nt
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
45
On
e o
f th
e B
igg
est
Ch
allen
ges is T
ran
sm
issio
n A
ccess
EH
V T
ran
sm
iss
ion
Ove
rlay
Sta
tus
Qu
o T
ran
sm
iss
ion
Ex
pa
ns
ion
Pro
ces
s
Sa
mp
le M
TE
P0
8 B
oa
rd A
pp
roved
Up
gra
des
Sa
mp
le M
TE
P0
8 B
oa
rd A
pp
roved
Up
gra
des
Gre
en
Po
wer
Exp
ress
Co
ncep
t
•B
rattle
recently
conducte
d a
stu
dy
of
Ext
ra-H
igh V
oltage (
EH
V)
ove
rlays
in the M
idw
est as a
means to
inte
rconnect a s
ignific
ant am
ount of re
mote
win
d r
esourc
es.
•W
e found thatE
HV
grid a
dditio
ns that in
cre
ase a
ccess to h
igher-
qualit
y w
ind r
esourc
es, alo
ng w
ith
exp
ecte
d c
arb
on p
rices, enable
renew
able
resourc
es to b
ecom
e c
ost-
com
petitive
with c
onve
ntional
pow
er
(exc
ludin
g tra
nsm
issio
n c
ost diffe
rences)
►O
ur
sim
ula
tion
s s
ho
w o
ver
20
,000
MW
of
win
d c
apa
city
ove
r an
d a
bo
ve c
urr
en
t R
PS
ma
nda
tes
will
be
bu
ilt
be
twe
en
2020
–2030
in t
he
Mid
we
st
if t
ran
smis
sio
n a
cce
ss is a
vaila
ble
.
►R
egio
na
l exp
an
sion
usi
ng a
ll th
is w
ind
wou
ld s
ave
app
roxi
ma
tely
6,6
00
mill
ion
MM
BT
Us
of
fue
l and
370
mill
ion
m
etr
ic to
ns o
f C
O2
thro
ugh
203
0.
►E
HV
add
itio
ns p
rovi
de
oth
er
sys
tem
be
nefits
, su
ch a
s g
rea
ter
relia
bili
ty,
div
ers
ity,
an
d m
ark
et
liquid
ity
–n
ot
qu
an
tifie
d in
th
is s
tud
y.
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
46
Sam
ple
Pro
po
sals
fo
r “S
up
er
Gri
ds”
$4
.9 b
n2
,334
mile
s o
f 3
45
kV
th
rou
gho
ut
we
ste
rn T
exa
s t
o s
up
po
rt 1
8 G
W o
f in
sta
lled
win
d c
apa
city
Va
rio
us
Co
mp
etitive
Re
ne
wa
ble
En
erg
y Z
on
es (
CR
EZ
s)
$8
.0 b
n2
,250
mile
s o
f 7
65
/500
kV
th
rou
gh
ou
t S
PP
fo
otp
rin
t (A
K,
KS
, M
O,
NM
, O
K,
TX
) fo
r re
liab
ility
and
to
inco
rpo
rate
an
estim
ate
d 1
3.5
GW
of
insta
lled
win
d c
apa
city
SP
P R
TO
SP
P O
verl
ay
& X
Pla
n
$3
-7
bn
1,0
00
mile
s o
f A
C (
500
kV
) a
nd D
C lin
es th
roug
h B
ritish
Co
lum
bia
-WA
-O
R-C
A t
o s
upp
ort
3 G
W o
f re
ne
wa
ble
sA
vista
Co
rp,
Bri
tish
Co
lum
bia
T
ran
sm
issi
on
, P
aci
fiC
orp
, an
d
PG
&E
Ca
na
da
-No
rth
we
st-
Calif
orn
ia P
roje
ct
$5
.1 b
n1
,280
mile
s o
f lin
es
rate
d u
p t
o 5
00kV
to in
terc
on
ne
ct
ren
ew
ab
lere
sou
rces s
uch
as w
ind
an
d s
ola
r th
roug
hou
t W
Y-C
O-N
M-A
ZG
rou
p o
f 1
1 e
lectr
ic u
tilit
ies, sta
te
ag
encie
s, a
nd a
n in
de
pen
den
t tr
an
smis
sio
n c
om
pan
y
Hig
h P
lain
s E
xpre
ss*
$8
0 b
n
(20
24$
)C
on
cep
tua
l stu
dy: 1
5,0
00
mile
s o
f n
ew
EH
V th
roug
hou
t en
tire
Ea
ste
rn
Inte
rco
nn
ect
(excep
t F
lorid
a)
to s
up
po
rt 2
0%
na
tion
al R
PS
sta
nd
ard
Mid
we
st
ISO
, S
PP
, P
JM
, T
VA
, M
AP
P a
nd
se
vera
l key m
em
be
rs
of
SE
RC
Jo
int
Co
ord
ina
ted
Stu
dy P
lan
n/a
Tra
nsm
issi
on
to
su
pp
ort
15
GW
of
win
d in
IA
, IL
, M
N, W
I (P
ha
se I
) an
d
22
GW
of w
ind
fo
r a
ll M
idw
est IS
O (
Ph
ase
II)
Mid
we
st
ISO
Re
gio
na
l O
utle
t S
tud
y
Gro
up
of 1
1 tra
nsm
issio
n o
wn
ers
in
Up
pe
r M
idw
est
Na
tio
na
l G
rid
and
Ban
go
r H
ydro
AE
P a
nd
IT
C T
ran
sm
issio
n
ITC
Tra
nsm
issio
n
Sp
on
so
red
By
•Hig
h P
lain
s E
xpre
ss (
HP
X)
inclu
des o
ther
pro
jects
such
as:
the
Easte
rn P
lain
s T
ransm
issio
n P
roje
ct
(EP
TP
), t
he W
yom
ing-C
olo
rado
In
tert
ie (
WC
I),
the
Ne
w M
exi
co
Win
d C
olle
cto
r, a
nd
the
SunZ
ia S
outh
west
Tra
nsm
issio
n P
roje
ct.
•**
This
lis
t om
its s
om
e p
rop
osals
pu
rely
for
bre
vity
–no
rankin
g o
r opin
ion
att
aches t
o inclu
sio
n w
ithin
th
e s
et
of
lines s
how
n.
$1
.4 -
$1
.7 b
n7
10
mile
s o
f 34
5/2
30
kV
fro
m D
ako
tas th
roug
h M
N t
o W
I (G
rou
p 1
P
roje
cts
)C
ap
X 2
02
0
$2
bn
24
0 m
ile D
C lin
e f
rom
Ma
ine
to
ou
tsid
e B
osto
n,
MA
with
po
ssib
le
ext
en
sio
ns t
o C
an
ad
a to
su
ppo
rt w
ind
inte
gra
tion
No
rth
east
En
erg
y Lin
k
$2
.6 b
n7
00
mile
s o
f 76
5 k
V lo
op
to
link M
ich
igan
an
d O
hio
fo
r re
liabili
ty a
nd
re
ne
wa
ble
de
velo
pm
en
tM
ich
iga
n 7
65
kV
Backb
one
$1
0 -
$1
2 b
n3
,000
mile
s o
f 7
65
kV
fro
m D
ako
tas to
outs
ide
Chic
ag
o, IL
to s
upp
ort
w
ind
in
teg
ratio
nG
ree
n P
ow
er
Exp
ress
Co
st
Descri
pti
on
Pro
ject
Nam
e
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
47
Mark
et
Dyn
am
ics
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
48
Sh
ort
-Term
RE
C P
rices C
an
Be V
ola
tile
•P
rem
ium
s a
bove
mark
et energ
y and c
apacity
prices w
ill b
e n
eeded to p
ay
for
hig
her-
cost re
new
able
re
sourc
es
•T
he R
EC
prices n
eeded to s
upport
each r
enew
able
technolo
gy
can r
ange fro
m $
0 to leve
ls c
lose to
the a
ltern
ative
com
plia
nce c
osts
of each r
egio
n –
RE
C p
ricin
g is local and n
o n
ational m
ark
et until new
le
gis
lation is p
assed
•In
additio
n to r
egula
tory
uncert
ain
ties, sig
nific
ant changes in c
arb
on, energ
y, c
apacity
costs
and
subsid
ies c
an s
ignifi
cantly
affect th
e R
EC
sm
ark
et
•T
he inte
rpla
y betw
een c
arb
on, energ
y and R
EC
mark
ets
will
have
sig
nific
ant im
plic
ations for
futu
re
RE
C p
rices
Sam
ple
Le
ve
lized
All-I
n C
os
ts f
or
New
Cap
acit
y(E
xclu
din
g F
irm
ing
, S
tora
ge,
an
d T
ran
sm
issio
n C
osts
)
$52
5
$0
$25
$50
$75
$10
0
$12
5
$15
0
$17
5
$47
5
$50
0$50
1.7
$14
5.3
$16
2.5
$98.3
$84.6
$87.5
$66.7
$82.4
$76.8
$72.8
$98.6
$71.2
$50.4
Bio
mass
CC
Adv.
CC
Conv.
Coal
CT
Adv.
CT
Conv.
Coal
Seq.
Nucle
ar
PV
Win
d(3
2%
c.f
.)W
ind
(42%
c.f
.)
2008$/MWh
CO
2 C
ost
Fuel C
osts
VO
M
FO
M
Capital C
osts
Tota
l w
ith
PT
C
Non-d
isp
atc
hable
-m
ay n
eed
additio
nal sto
rage
and
fir
min
g
Dis
patc
ha
ble
-no
fir
min
g r
equir
ed
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
49
Dep
ressed
En
erg
y P
rices a
re W
orr
yin
g In
vesto
rs o
f W
ind
an
d
Co
nven
tio
nal R
eso
urc
es
•T
exas,
whe
re a
dditio
ns o
f w
ind c
apacity
have o
uts
trip
ped t
ransm
issio
n a
dditio
ns,
show
s a
n e
xam
ple
of lo
caliz
ed p
rice d
epre
ssio
n.
•A
s s
how
n b
elo
w,
in 2
008,
when W
est T
exas incre
menta
l w
ind a
dditio
ns
surp
assed a
2,0
00 M
W t
hre
shold
, th
e im
plie
d h
eat ra
te h
ad d
ropped a
bout 30%
over
the
last
yea
r.W
est
ER
CO
T a
nd
ER
CO
T G
en
era
tor
Pri
ce
s
an
d C
um
ula
tive
ER
CO
T I
ns
talled
Win
d C
ap
acit
y b
y O
nli
ne
Date
0
1,0
00
2,0
00
3,0
00
4,0
00
5,0
00
6,0
00
Jan-06
Mar-06
May-06
Jul-06
Sep-06
Nov-06
Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
West ERCOT New Wind Capacity (Cumulative MW)
0246810
12
Implied Heat Rate ERCOT and West ERCOT (MMBTU/MWh)
West E
RC
OT
Im
plie
d
Heat R
ate
(R
ight A
xis
)
Insta
lled W
ind C
apacity
in E
RC
OT
West Z
one*
(Left
Axis
)
*Only
inclu
des n
ew
win
d c
apacity
in E
RC
OT
West Z
one w
ith o
nlin
e d
ate
s b
etw
een 2
006 a
nd 2
009Y
TD
.
Sourc
e: G
enera
tor
prices f
rom
ER
CO
T. Insta
lled w
ind c
apacity
fro
m E
nerg
y V
elo
city
as o
f A
pr.
30, 2009.
ER
CO
T Im
plie
d H
eat
Rate
(R
ight A
xis
)
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
50
Rate
Im
pact
Th
resh
old
fo
r R
PS
None e
xplic
itly
sta
ted
$20/M
Wh T
ier
1 n
on-s
ola
r ($
40/M
Wh in
201
1),
$1
5/M
Wh T
ier
2,
$45/M
Wh in
200
8 f
or
sola
r an
d d
eclin
ing b
y $5/M
Wh p
er
year
until $5/M
Wh fix
ed.
Com
plia
nce c
an b
e d
ela
yed if
RE
Cs
cost
is >
1%
of to
tal annu
al ele
ctr
icity
sale
s
reve
nu
es (
curr
ently
only
sola
r, b
ut
will
in
clu
de o
ther
rene
wable
s)
20%
by
202
2
Mary
lan
d
Altern
ative
com
plia
nce r
ate
dete
rmin
ed
by
com
mis
sio
n o
n a
case-b
y-case
basis
None
None
None
None
Alt
ern
ati
ve C
om
pli
an
ce P
aym
en
t
Am
ount
dete
rmin
ed b
y com
mis
sio
n o
n a
case-b
y-case b
asis
4%
of
ann
ual re
ven
ue r
equirem
ent
25%
by
202
5 f
or
Larg
e
Utilit
ies
5-1
0%
by
20
25 f
or
Sm
all
Utilit
ies
Ore
go
n
Not
passed o
nto
custo
mers
.
For
sola
r: $
450/M
Wh in
200
9,
$4
00/M
Wh
in 2
01
0 &
20
11;
decre
asin
g b
y $5
0/M
Wh
eve
ry t
wo y
ears
until 2024.
For
oth
er
ren
ew
able
s:
$45/M
Wh, adju
ste
d
ann
ually
by
CP
I
3%
of
nonre
ne
wable
port
folio
12.5
% b
y 2
02
5
(just
pass
ed in M
ay
200
8)
Oh
io
None e
xplic
itly
sta
ted
1%
of
nonre
ne
wable
port
folio
in 2
006,
incre
asin
g b
y 0.2
% p
er
year
up t
o 2
.0%
in
201
1 a
nd b
eyon
d
20%
by
202 f
or
IOU
s10%
by
202
0 f
or
Coo
ps
New
M
exic
o
$40/M
Wh if not
limite
d b
y ra
te im
pact
The lesser
of
a 0
.5%
incre
ment
on p
rior
year
rate
or
0.5
% c
um
ula
tive
rela
tive
to
base y
ear
(May
20
07)
2%
by
20
08
10%
by
201
525%
by
202
5(in-s
tate
resourc
es o
nly
befo
re 2
012)
Illi
no
is
Com
mis
sio
n m
ay
ass
ess
the v
alu
e o
f R
EC
snecess
ary
to h
ave
com
plie
d w
ith
RP
S a
nd im
pose a
n a
dm
inis
trative
fee
equ
al to
all
or
part
of
that
valu
e
2%
of
nonre
ne
wable
port
folio
20%
by
202
0 f
or
IOU
s
10%
by
202
0 f
or
PO
Us
Co
lora
do
Pen
alt
y f
or
no
t m
eeti
ng
RP
SC
ost
Cap
/ R
ate
Im
pact
Lim
itR
PS
Req
uir
em
en
tsS
tate
Som
e s
tate
s h
ave s
et
rate
im
pact th
reshold
s for
meeting R
PS
. T
ho
ugh N
ew
Engla
nd
sta
tes d
o n
ot have s
pecific
rate
im
pact th
reshold
s, ra
te p
aye
rs t
ole
rance m
ay b
e t
este
d
if c
osts
do n
ot de
cre
ase o
ver
tim
e.
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
51
Su
mm
ary
of
Ch
allen
ges f
or
Ren
ew
ab
le D
evelo
pm
en
t
•F
inancin
g o
ptio
ns h
ave b
ecom
e m
ore
lim
ited.
•R
enew
able
cre
dit p
ricin
g is lo
cal and n
o n
ational m
ark
et until
new
legis
lation is p
assed
•R
ate
im
pact lim
itations/tole
rance in s
om
e s
tate
s a
re s
ignific
ant
•N
IMB
Y r
eactio
n is s
erious p
roble
m in w
ind a
nd s
ola
r in
cert
ain
are
as
•T
ransm
issio
n c
onstr
ain
ts c
ontinue to s
ignific
antly lim
it the
deliv
ery
of re
new
able
energ
y
•R
eduction o
f short
-term
energ
y p
rices c
ould
cre
ate
sig
nific
ant
concern
s for
exis
ting c
yclin
g a
nd b
aselo
ad
pla
nts
.
•In
tegra
tion c
ost associa
ted a
ccom
modating a
larg
e a
mount of
inte
rmitte
nt re
sourc
es is s
till
gre
atly u
ncert
ain
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
52
Cu
rren
t B
ratt
leA
cti
vit
ies in
Ren
ew
ab
le E
nerg
y
•E
valu
ati
ng
th
e f
inan
cia
l ri
sks
for
develo
pers
under
unce
rtain
energ
y, r
en
ew
able
cre
dit a
nd
carb
on p
rices
•E
valu
ati
ng
bid
off
ers
from
supplie
rs
•E
sti
mati
ng
th
e i
ncre
men
tal
dem
an
d f
or
mo
re f
lexib
le g
en
era
tio
n
resourc
es a
nd t
he c
ost
of
those r
esourc
es w
hen inte
gra
ting larg
eam
ount
of
inte
rmitte
nt
rene
wa
ble
s
•E
valu
ati
ng
ec
on
om
ic d
evelo
pm
en
t im
pact
of
rene
wab
le e
nerg
y pro
jects
•E
valu
ati
ng
th
e i
mp
act
of
RP
S o
n r
eta
il t
ari
ff
•E
valu
ati
ng
th
e e
co
no
mic
ris
ks a
ssocia
ted
with v
ari
ous p
roje
ct
ow
ners
hip
and f
inancia
l str
uctu
res
•E
valu
ati
ng
th
e e
co
no
mic
ben
efi
ts o
f tr
an
sm
issio
n o
ptio
ns w
hen
inte
rcon
nectin
g r
ene
wa
ble
s
•E
sti
mati
ng
th
e b
en
efi
t o
f p
um
ped
sto
rag
e a
s inte
rmitte
nt
resourc
es
are
add
ed
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
53
Th
e B
ratt
le G
rou
p –
Serv
ice
s t
o E
nerg
y C
om
pan
ies
•C
lim
ate
Ch
an
ge
Po
lic
y a
nd
P
lan
nin
g
•C
ost of C
apital
•D
em
and F
ore
casting a
nd W
eath
er
Norm
aliz
ation
•D
em
and R
esponse a
nd E
nerg
y
Effic
iency
•E
lectr
icit
y M
ark
et
Mo
de
lin
g
•E
nerg
y A
sse
t V
alu
ati
on
•E
nerg
y C
on
tract
Litig
ation
•E
nvironm
enta
l C
om
plia
nce
•F
uel and P
ow
er
Pro
cure
men
t
•In
centive R
egula
tion
•R
ate
Desig
n,
Co
st
All
oca
tio
n, a
nd
R
ate
Str
uctu
re
•R
eg
ula
tory
Str
ate
gy a
nd
Lit
igati
on
S
up
po
rt
•R
en
ew
ab
les
•R
esourc
e P
lannin
g
•R
eta
il A
ccess a
nd R
estr
uctu
ring
•R
isk M
anagem
ent
•M
ark
et-
Based R
ate
s
•M
ark
et
Desig
n a
nd
Co
mp
eti
tive
An
aly
sis
•M
erg
ers
and A
cq
uis
itio
ns
•T
ran
sm
issio
n
Pri
vile
ged
an
d C
on
fiden
tia
l
54
Con
tact
Judy
Chan
g–
En
ergy
Pra
ctic
e
at
jud
y.c
han
g@
bra
ttle
.com
44 B
ratt
le S
tree
t, C
am
bri
dge,
MA
02138
617-8
64-7
900
CA
MB
RID
GE
S
AN
FR
AN
CIS
CO
W
AS
HIN
GT
ON
B
RU
SS
EL
S
L
ON
DO
N
Th
e B
ratt
le G
roup p
rovid
es c
onsu
ltin
g a
nd e
xper
t te
stim
ony i
n e
conom
ics,
fin
ance
, an
d r
egula
tion t
o c
orp
ora
tio
ns,
law
fir
ms,
and
gover
nm
ents
aro
un
d t
he
worl
d.
We
com
bin
e in
-dep
th i
ndu
stry
exper
ience
, ri
goro
us
anal
yse
s, a
nd
pri
nci
ple
d t
echniq
ues
to h
elp c
lien
ts a
nsw
er c
om
ple
x e
con
om
ic a
nd
fin
anci
al q
ues
tion
s in
lit
igat
ion
and
reg
ula
tion,
dev
elop
str
ateg
ies
for
chan
gin
g m
arket
s, a
nd m
ake
crit
ical
bu
sines
s dec
isio
ns.
We
are
dis
tinguis
hed
by:
•
Th
oug
htf
ul,
tim
ely,
and
tra
nsp
aren
t an
alyse
s o
f in
du
stri
es a
nd
iss
ues
•
Aff
ilia
tio
ns
wit
h l
ead
ing
in
tern
atio
nal
aca
dem
ics
and
hig
hly
cre
den
tial
ed i
nd
ust
ry s
pec
iali
sts
•
Cle
arly
pre
sen
ted
res
ult
s th
at w
ith
stan
d c
riti
cal
revie
w