update on guam’s covid 19 cases and the introduction of new quarantine, testing… ·...

GOVERNOR & STATE SURGEON PHYSICIAN ADVISORY GROUP

Update on Guam’s COVID-19 Cases and the Introduction of New Quarantine, Testing, and Monitoring Requirements for

Travelers Entering Guam

Press Briefing June 27, 2020 13:00

Prepared by: Felix T. Cabrera, MD, MT (ASCP)


New Case Counts tell us the incidence of active cases.

Test Positivity Rates tell us how wide of a net we are casting to identify active cases.

GOAL = Keep both as low as possible

June 27, 2020


Test

Pos

itivi

ty R

ate

(7-D

ay R

ollin

g A

vg)

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

New

Cas

es (7

-Day

Rol

ling

Avg

)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jun 1 Jun 6 Jun 11 Jun 16 Jun 21 Jun 26

COVID-19 New Cases and Test Positivity Rates on Guam: For the Month of June to Present

Threshold of Concern

Test Positivity Rate

New Cases

New Case counts tell us the incidence of active cases, while Test Positivity Rate tells us how wide of a net we are casting to identify active cases.

Test Positivity Rate

New Cases

June 27, 2020


30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

March 12

March 18

March 24

March 30

April 5

April 11

April 17

April 23

April 29

May 5

May 11

May 17

May 23

May 29Ju

n 4Ju

n 10Ju

n 16

Jun 22

Jun 26

DAILY NEW CASES

7-Day Rolling Average

DAILY NEW TESTS


COVID-19 Cases & Tests on Guam: Visualization of Testing Capacity Adequacy

As of June 25, 2020

DAILY NEW TESTS


DAILY NEW CASES


Note the 2 different Y-axes. Daily New Cases and Daily New Tests have been scaled so t h a t t h e y a r e comparable. For example, 300 new tests corresponds to 9 new cases, which is 3% of 300.

Source: Governor and State Surgeon’s Physician Advisory Group, prepared by Felix Cabrera. Visualization adopted from Tomas Pueyo’s methods in Coronavirus: Learning How to Dance, Part 3: How to Do Testing and Contact Tracing, published April 28, 2020 on medium.com

Turning of Tide— By using this scale design, the downtrend of Daily New Cases and uptrend of Daily New Tests performed, visually intersects when test positivity rates start dropping below 3%. Countries that have considerably controlled their COVID-19 spread have test positivity rates <3%. *Staying in the green zone is one of the gated criteria in Guam’s reopening efforts.

Tide Turn Warning

June 27, 2020

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-how-to-do-testing-and-contact-tracing-bde85b64072e


CO

VID-1

9 C

ases

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Rela

tive

Mob

ility

of i

OS

Dev

ices

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

225%

250%Su

n, M

ar 15

, 20

20

Tue,

Mar

17, 2

020

Thu,

Mar

19, 2

020

Sat,

Mar

21,

2020

Mon

, Mar

23,

20

20

Wed

, Mar

25,

20

20

Fri,

Mar

27,

20

20

Sun,

Mar

29,

20

20

Tue,

Mar

31,

2020

Thu,

Apr

2, 2

020

Sat,

Apr

4, 2

020

Mon

, Apr

6, 2

020

Wed

, Apr

8, 2

020

Fri,

Apr

10, 2

020

Sun,

Apr

12, 2

020

Tue,

Apr

14, 2

020

Thu,

Apr

16, 2

020

Sat,

Apr

18, 2

020

Mon

, Apr

20,

20

20

Wed

, Apr

22,

20

20

Fri,

Apr

24,

20

20

Sun,

Apr

26,

20

20

Tue,

Apr

28,

20

20

Thu,

Apr

30,

20

20

Sat,

May

2, 2

020

Mon

, May

4, 2

020

Wed

, May

6, 2

020

Fri,

May

8, 2

020

Sun,

May

10

Tue,

May

12

Thr,

May

14

Sat,

May

16

Mon

, May

18

Wed

, May

20

Fri,

May

22

Sun,

May

24

Tue,

May

26

Thr,

May

28

Sat,

May

30

Mon

, Jun

1

Wed

, Jun

3

Fri,

Jun

5

Sun,

Jun

7

Tue,

Jun

9

Thr,

Jun

11

Sat,

Jun

13

Mon

, Jun

15

Wed

, Jun

17

Fri,

Jun

19

Sun,

Jun

21

Tue,

Jun

23

Thr,

Jun

25

Guam’s Mobility in Relationship with COVID-19 New Cases and Hospitalized

As of June 25, 2020

This anonymized mobility data is made available via Apple’s Mobility Trends Reports, which was created to provide insights into response to policies aimed at combating COVID-19. Google has a similar program for Android users called Community Mobility Reports. Guam is not included in their current data report.

Apple’s statement regarding user privacy, “This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities. Data that is sent from users’ devices to the Maps service is associated with random, rotating identifiers so Apple doesn’t have a profile of your movements and searches. The availability of data in a particular country/region, sub-region, or city is based on a number of factors, including minimum thresholds for direction requests per day.”

Data is based on a random sample of iOS devices (see privacy statement). This only serves as a sample representation of the public’s overall mobility. Data last accessed on June 9, 2020 at https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility.

PCOR1 PCOR2

Guam COVID+ Hospitalized (7-Day Avg)

Guam New COVID+ (7-Day Avg)

Guam Mobility

June 27, 2020

https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility


CO

VID-1

9 C

ases

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Rela

tive

Mob

ility

of i

OS

Dev

ices

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%W

ed, M

ay 13

Thr,

May

14

Fri,

May

15

Sat,

May

16

Sun,

May

17

Mon

, May

18

Tue,

May

19

Wed

, May

20

Thr,

May

21

Fri,

May

22

Sat,

May

23

Sun,

May

24

Mon

, May

25

Tue,

May

26

Wed

, May

27

Thr,

May

28

Fri,

May

29

Sat,

May

30

Sun,

May

31

Mon

, Jun

1

Tue,

Jun

2

Wed

, Jun

3

Thr,

Jun

4

Fri,

Jun

5

Sat,

Jun

6

Sun,

Jun

7

Mon

, Jun

8

Tue,

Jun

9

Wed

, Jun

10

Thr,

Jun

11

Fri,

Jun

12

Sat,

Jun

13

Sun,

Jun

14

Mon

, Jun

15

Tue,

Jun

16

Wed

, Jun

17

Thr,

Jun

18

Fri,

Jun

19

Sat,

Jun

20

Sun,

Jun

21

Mon

, Jun

22

Tue,

Jun

23

Wed

, Jun

24

Thr,

Jun

25

Fri,

Jun

26

Sat,

Jun

27

Guam’s Mobility in Relationship with COVID-19 New Cases and Hospitalized

Per Data Available as of June 27, 2020

This anonymized mobility data is made available via Apple’s Mobility Trends Reports, which was created to provide insights into response to policies aimed at combating COVID-19. Google has a similar program for Android users called Community Mobility Reports. Guam is not included in their current data report. Data is based on a random sample of iOS devices (see privacy statement). This only serves as a sample representation of the public’s overall mobility. Data last accessed on June 9, 2020 at https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility.

Apple’s statement regarding user privacy, “This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities. Data that is sent from users’ devices to the Maps service is associated with random, rotating identifiers so Apple doesn’t have a profile of your movements and searches. The availability of data in a particular country/region, sub-region, or city is based on a number of factors, including minimum thresholds for direction requests per day.”

Memorial Day Weekend G

G P

ay

GG

Pay

GG

Pay

Guam COVID+ HospitalizedGuam New COVID+ (7-Day Avg)Guam MobilityGuam Mobility (14-Day Avg)

Baseline

June 8 Changes to Quarantine and Testing Requirements

GG

Pay

June 27, 2020




New Quarantine, Testing, and Monitoring Requirements for

Travelers Entering Guam

June 27, 2020


International Hot Spot Arrivals

Domestic & International Non-Hot Spot Arrivals

Residents Non-ResidentsResidents Non-Residents

ALL persons having originated from or traveled through international locations deemed to be “hot spots” shall be subject to 14-day quarantine at a GovGuam approved quarantine facility.

FLIGHT

RESIDENCY

QUARANTINE (14-Day Mandatory for All)

14-day quarantine at home residence allowed. No test required.

14-day quarantine at personal residence or rental lodging with negative PCR test within 1 week of arrival. Otherwise, will complete in GovGuam approved quarantine facility.

A “Hot Spot” is defined as a country/location with COVID-19 case doubling rate less than every 30 days. A “Non-Hot Spot” location has a COVID-19 case doubling rate greater than or equal to every 30 days. Countries/locations hot spot status will ultimately be determined and updated by the Department of Public Health and Social Services in consultation with the Governor and State Surgeon’s Physician Advisory Group. Reference data sources from Johns Hopkins University, World Health Organization and other local government reports as compiled and regularly updated via The New York Times’ Coronavirus Map: Tracking the Global Outbreak at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html

Testing is NOT required to board

flight

Testing is NOT required to board

flight

CURRENT PROCESS

June 27, 2020


New Policy for Travelers Entering Guam Due to the recent increase in COVID-19 cases on Guam and around the world, the following changes will be made to Quarantine, Testing, and Monitoring requirements for all travelers entering Guam, effective after midnight on Wednesday, July 1, 2020.

1. Hotspot locations will be renamed as “High Risk Areas”

2. For the US, risk status will be determined on a state-by-state level, to include territories.

3. The default level of quarantine required upon arrival on Guam is based on whether or not a traveler is coming from a High Risk Area.

4. A Pre-Arrival Negative PCR Test, in particular those traveling from a High Risk Area, is necessary to determine the location of quarantine required and eligibility to qualify for an abbreviated quarantine length.

5. Residency status will NOT determine the level of quarantine or testing required. Considerations for alternate quarantine locations will still be made in certain limited circumstances.

6. High Risk locations will be determined by a calculated COVID-19 Area Risk (CAR) score, which primarily assesses an area’s recently calculated Case Doubling Time and Test Positivity Rate. June 27, 2020


Originating From a COVID-19 High Risk Area?

Government Facility Quarantine

Negative PCR Test <72 hours prior to arrival on Guam?

Home/Self Quarantine

Those with Negative PCR Test within 72 hours prior to arrival on Guam may opt to repeat PCR test on Day 7 of Quarantine. Everyone else may opt to test on Day 10 (subject to testing availability).

Early Quarantine Release Must Fully Comply with 14 Days of Symptom Monitoring and Tracking

Yes No

Yes

No

Negative Post-Arrival

PCR Test

No Post-Arrival PCR Test

Complete Full 14-Day Quarantine

June 27, 2020


High Risk StatesHigh Risk Asian/Pacific Countries

Other High Risk Continents/Areas

Alabama Nevada Bangladesh Africa

Arizona North Carolina India Central America

Arkansas Oklahoma Indonesia Middle East

California Oregon Nepal South America

Florida South Carolina Philippines

Georgia Tennessee

Idaho Texas

Mississippi UtahJune 27, 2020


End

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