unwto world tourism barometer may 2020€¦ · • according to unwto’s report on covid – 19...

UNWTO World Tourism Barometer May 2020Special focus on the Impact of COVID-19

Index • Executive Summary

• The Context COVID-19 Timeline Travel restrictions

• The Impact of COVID-19 on International Tourism - January-March 2020 International Tourist Arrivals Air Travel Hospitality

• Looking Ahead Scenarios for international tourism 2020 Recovery Prospects Themostaffecteddestinationsandmarkets The Economic Factors ChallengesandOpportunities

Executive Summary

• Theworldisfacinganunprecedentedglobalhealth,socialandeconomicemergencywiththeCOVID-19pandemic.

• Travelandtourism is among the most affected sectors with airplanesontheground,hotelsclosedandtravelrestrictionsputinplaceinvirtuallyallcountriesaroundtheworld.

• Inanunprecedentedblowtothetourismsector,theCOVID-19pandemichascutinternationaltouristarrivalsinthefirstquarterof2020toafractionofwhattheywereayearago.

• Availabledatapointstoadouble-digit decrease of 22% in Q1 2020, with arrivals in March down by 57%.Thistranslatesintoa loss of 67 million international arrivalsandaboutUSD 80 billion in receipts.

Executive Summary

• Prospects for the yearhavebeendowngradedseveraltimessincetheoutbreakinviewofthehighlevelofuncertainty.

• Current scenarios point to declines of 58% to 78% in internationaltouristarrivalsfortheyear,dependingonthespeedofthecontainmentandthedurationoftravelrestrictionsandshutdownofborders,althoughtheoutlookremainshighlyuncertain(the scenarios are not forecasts and should not be interpreted as such).

• Thescenarios reflectthreepossiblepatternsofmonthlychangeinarrivalsfromApriltoDecember2020supposingthat travelrestrictionsstarttobeliftedandnationalbordersopenedinearlyJuly(Scenario1:-58%),inearly September(Scenario2:-70%)or inearlyDecember(Scenario3:-78%).

• Thesescenarioswouldput100 to 120 million direct tourism jobs at risk.

Executive Summary

• This is by far the worst result in the historical series of international tourismsince1950andwouldputanabruptendtoa10-yearperiodofsustainedgrowthsincethe2009financialcrisis.

• SentimentexpressedbytheUNWTO Panel of Experts points to a start of the recovery of international demand mostly in 2021.AccordingtoPanelExpertsfromaroundtheworld,domesticdemandwouldrecoverfasterthaninternationaldemand.

• Considerablechallenges remainahead,startingwiththeunknowndurationofthepandemicandtravelrestrictions,inacontextofglobaleconomicrecession.CountriesaroundtheworldareimplementingawiderangeofmeasurestomitigatetheimpactoftheCOVID-19outbreakandtostimulate therecoveryofthetourismsector.

The Context

COVID-19 timeline

Source:WorldTourismOrganization(UNWTO)

Travel Restrictions

100% of worldwide destinations have introduced travel

restrictions in response to the

pandemic

• AccordingtoUNWTO’s Report on COVID – 19 Related Travel Restrictions,asof20April,100%ofallworldwidedestinationshaveintroducedtravelrestrictionsinresponsetothepandemic.

• 97destinations(45%)havetotallyorpartiallyclosedtheirbordersfortourists.

• 65destinations(30%)havesuspendedtotallyorpartiallyinternationalflights.

• 39destinations(18%)areimplementingtheclosingofbordersinamoredifferentiatedmannerbybanningtheentryforpassengersfromspecificcountriesoforigin”.

EVOLUTIONOFTRAVEL

RESTRICTIONS

The impact of COVID-19 on international tourism

January-March 2020

International Tourist

Arrivals January - March

2020

• Availabledatapointstoadouble-digitdecrease of 22% in international tourist arrivals in Q1 2020, with arrivals in the monthofMarchdownby57%followingthestartofthelockdowninmanycountries,widespreadtravelrestrictionsandtheshutdownofairportsandnationalborders.

• This represents a loss of 67 million international arrivals in the firstquarterof2020comparedtothesameperiodoflastyear.

• Byregions,AsiaandthePacific,thefirstregiontosuffertheimpactofCOVID-19,sawa35%decreaseinarrivalsinQ12020.Thesecond-hardesthitwasEuropewitha19%decline,followedbytheAmericas(-15%),Africa(-12%)andtheMiddleEast(-11%).

International tourist arrivals by region in Q1 2020


+2 +6

-2

+0 +4 +6

-9

+6

-37

+3 +4 +5

-57 -60 -64

-46 -44 -41

-80

-60

-40

-20

+0

+20World Europe

Asia and thePacific Americas Africa Middle East

Jan. Feb. Mar.

World

Data is provisional

International tourist arrivals fell sharply in March 2020International tourist arrivals, Jan, Feb, March 2020 (% change)


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

(mill

ions

)

2020*

2019

2018

2017

Sharp drop of international arrivals in March 2020 World:Internationaltouristarrivalsbymonths(millions)

*DataforJanuary-March2020isprovisionalandincludesestimatesforcountrieswhichhavenotyetreporteddata.Source:UNWTO

0

20

40

60

80

100


(mill

ions

)

2020*

2019

2018

2017

All regions suffered a strong decline in March 2020Europe: International tourist arrivals by months (millions)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


(mill

ions

)

2020*

2019

2018

2017


All regions suffered a strong decline in March 2020AsiaandthePacific:Internationaltouristarrivalsbymonths(millions)

0

5

10

15

20

25


(mill

ions

)

2020*

2019

2018

2017


All regions suffered a strong decline in March 2020Americas: International tourist arrivals by months (millions)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8


(mill

ions

)

2020*

2019

2018

2017


All regions suffered a strong decline in March 2020Africa: International tourist arrivals by months (millions)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8


(mill

ions

)

2020*

2019

2018

2017


All regions suffered a strong decline in March 2020MiddleEast:Internationaltouristarrivalsbymonths(millions)

Air Travel • ICAOdatashowsasharp38%declineinworldtotalaircapacityinMarch,withmassivedouble-digitdecreasesacrossregions.Thelatestestimatesforthefull-year2020comparedtobaselinewouldbeareductionof39%to56%ofseatsofferedbyairlinesiftherecoveryisinlateMay,o49%to72%iftherestartisinQ3orlater. Internationalpassengerswoulddecline44%to80%in2020.

• IATApointstoadeclineof22%ininternationalpassengerdemand(RPKs)inJanuary-March,witha56%dropinMarch.IATAforecasttotalairpassengermarkettoend2020at-48%inRPKs.

• ForwardKeysdatashowsamassive80%declineinairbookingsworldwideinQ1.AsiaandthePacific(-98%)sufferedthebiggestdropandstartedtodeclineearlier,withtheintroductionoftravelrestrictionsinChina.AirbookingsfromEurope(-76%),theAmericas(-67%),AfricaandtheMiddleEast(-65%)allhadseveredeclinesinthefirstquarterof2020.

Hospitality • AccordingtoSTR, the impact of COVID-19 on the global hotel industryinJanuary2020,measuredinchangeinrevenueperavailableroom(RevPAR),wasapparentinAsia(-9.6%),butnotinotherworldregions.

• ByMarch,thehotelindustryinallworldregionsrecordedlargedouble-digitdeclinesinglobalRevPAR,withAsia(-67.8%)andEurope(-61.7%)postingthebiggestdecreases.

• GlobaloccupanciesdeclinedsignificantlyinMarchwithdouble-digitdecreasesincountriesaroundtheworld,rangingfrom20%tomorethan70%.

The impact of COVID-19 on Tourism in Q1

67 million fewer international tourist arrivals

80 US$ billion lost in exports

100% destinations with travel restrictions

Looking Ahead

Domestic demand expected to recover faster than international demand

InternationaldemandwouldrecoverbyQ4andmainlyin2021accordingtotheUNWTOPanelofExpertssurveyresponses


0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Africa Americas Asia and thePacific

Europe Middle East

3- When do you expect international demand for your destination will start to recover?

By May-June By July-September By October-December By 2021

3%

24%

34%39%

14%

45%

25%

15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

By May-June By July-September By October-December By 2021

When do you expect tourism demand for your destination will start to recover?

International Domestic

Scenario Assumptions

• Thethreescenariosofinternationaltourismin2020presentedare not forecasts andshould notbeinterpretedassuch.

• They reflectthreepossiblepatternsofmonthlychangeinarrivalsfromApriltoDecember2020supposingthat travelrestrictionsstarttobeliftedandnationalbordersopenedinearlyJuly(Scenario1),inearly September(Scenario2)or inearlyDecember(Scenario3).TheyarebasedonavailabletourismdataforJanuary-Marchandotherinformationsuch astheshutdownofallnationalbordersasoflateApril,thoughstillinacontextofhighuncertainty.

• Thethreescenariosreflectthreeverygradualpacesofnormalizationinwhichmonthlydeclinesinarrivalsstartto recedeinthoserespectivemonthsandthereisnosignificantorlong-lastingworseningofthepandemicthataffects travelconditionsthereafter.AllthreescenariosconsiderdeclinesinarrivalsthroughDecember2020,albeitto differentextents.

Scenario Assumptions

• Thescenariosarebasedonmodelsthatconsiderdifferentpatternsofrecoveryforthedifferentworldregions, whereAsiaandthePacificseesachangeintrendearlier,asthepandemichitAsiabeforeotherregionsandseasonalityinAsiaislesssignificantthaninotherregionswherethebulkofdemandtakesplaceinJune-September.

• Themodelsdonotspecificallyincorporateeconomicfactorsonthepatternsofmonthlychange,thoughthe economicrecessionresultingfromthepandemicisexpectedtohaveamajorimpactoninternationaltourisminthe neartomiddletermaffectingconsumers’spendingpropensity.

• Thedataandassumptionsofthesescenarioswillbeadjustedasthesituation evolves and moreinformationbecomesavailable.

+4 +4 +2 +7

+2 +6

+3 +3 +4 +3 +3 +2 +2

-9

-57

-90

-70

-50

-30

-10

+10

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April

(mon

thly

cha

nge,

%)

Progressive decline in arrivals in Q1 2020, with 57% drop in MarchInternational tourist arrivals (YoY monthly change, %)

Note:DataforJanuary-March2020includesestimatesforcountrieswhichhavenotyetreporteddata.Source:UNWTO

2019 2020

+2

-9

-57

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

(mon

thly

cha

nge,

%)

Actual data*Scenario 1:Scenario 2:Scenario 3: -78%

-70%-58%

Gradual opening of bordersand lifting of travel restrictions

in July in September

in December

Forward-looking scenarios depend on re-opening of bordersInternational tourist arrivals in 2020: three scenarios (YoY monthly change, %)

*ActualdatathroughMarchincludesestimatesforcountrieswhichhavenotyetreporteddata. Source:UNWTO

Note:thescenariospresentedinthisgrapharenotforecasts.Theyrepresentalternativemonthlychangeinarrivalsbasedonthegradualopeningofnationalbordersandliftingoftravelrestrictionsondifferentdates,stillsubjecttohighuncertainty.

6.4

0.13.0

9.47.0 5.7 6.6

1.9-4.0

6.6 4.8 4.7 5.1 4.2 4.8 3.87.2 5.7 3.8

-58

-80

-75

-70

-65

-60

-55

-50

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(e)

2020(sc)

(% c

hang

e)

Source: UNWTO (e) Estimate (sc) Scenario-based data

2009Global economic

crisis

2003SARS

epidemic2001Sept 11th attacks

-70

-78

2020 ScenariosCOVID-19

Scenario 1: -58% Scenario 2: -70%Scenario 3: -78%

The above are not forecasts. They are scenarios based on the possible opening of national

borders and lifting of travel restrictions in July, Sept. and Dec. 2020 respectively.

Arrivals could drop 58% to 78% depending on pace of normalizationInternationaltouristarrivals,2000-2019andscenariosfor2020(%change)

Source:WorldTourismOrganization(UNWTO) (e)Estimate (sc)Scenario-baseddata

-0.4

Crisis could severely impact summer season (northern hemisphere) International tourist arrivals by months, 2020: three scenarios (millions)

Note:thedatafor2020presentedinthesegraphsarenotforecasts.TheyrepresentthreescenariosbasedonthegradualopeningofnationalbordersandliftingoftravelrestrictionsinJuly,SeptemberandDecember2020respectively,inacontextofstillhighuncertainty.


+2%

-9%

-57%

30

60

90

120

150

180


Inte

rnat

iona

l arri

vals

(tho

usan

ds)

Scenario 1 arrivals

Loss versus 2019

+2%

-9%

-57%

30

60

90

120

150

180


Inte

rnat

iona

l arri

vals

(tho

usan

ds)

Scenario 2 arrivals

Loss versus 2019

+2%

-9%

-57%

30

60

90

120

150

180


Inte

rnat

iona

l arri

vals

(tho

usan

ds)

Scenario 3 arrivals

Loss versus 2019

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

674 675 695 692757

810856

913 930 893952

9971,044

1,0971,143

1,1971,243

1,3331,408

1,462

610

440

320

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(e)

2020(sc)

(milli

ons)

2003SARS

-3 million-0.4%


Scenario 1: -850 million (-58%) Scenario 2: -1020 million (-70%)Scenario 3: -1140 million (-78%)

The above are not forecasts. They are scenarios based on the possible opening of national


2009Global economic crisis

-37 million-4.0%

Source: UNWTO (e) Estimate (sc) Scenario-based

Largest blow to tourism ever could slash 1 billion arrivalsInternationaltouristarrivals,2000-2019andscenariosfor2020(millions)


496 485 506554

657707

773

892

988901

979

1,096 1,1321,219

1,2811,222 1,250

1,347

1,454 1,480

570

410

310

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(e)

2020(sc)

(US$

billi

ons)

2003SARS

+50 US$ billion-1.4% (real terms)

2009Global economic crisis

-88 US$ billion-5.4% (real terms)

Source: UNWTO (e) Estimate (sc) Scenario-based


Scenario 1: -US$ 910 bill. -62% Scenario 2: -US$ 1080 bill. -73%Scenario 3: -US$ 1170 bill. -79%

(nominal)

The above are not forecasts but scenarios based on the possible opening of national


International tourism receipts could plunge by US$ 1 trillionInternationaltourismreceipts,2000-2019andscenariosfor2020(U$billion)


Summary of Potential Impacts in 2020

850 million to 1.1 billion fewer international tourist arrivals

US$ 910 billion to US$ 1.2 trillion loss in export revenues from tourism

100 to 120 milliondirecttourismjobs at risk

144 mn 157 mn

463 mn 482

4% 5%

14%

54%

38% 39%

44%

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Accommodation and foodservices

Real estate; business andadministrative activities

Manufacturing Wholesale and retail trade;repair of motor vehicles and

motorcycles

Levels of employment (mn) Share in global employment (%) Share of women (%)

Employment in accommodation and food services is at high risk, more than half workers are women

Workersinsectormostatrisk

Source:InternationalLabourOrganization

15%

+2 +5

+12

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

(% c

hang

e)

Asia during SARS

Europe during Global econ. crisis

Americas after Sept. 11th attacks

Asia during SARSmonth 7:

first month of growth

Europe during global econ. crisis

month 14

Americas after Sept. 11th

month 12

(Months after start of crisis)

Europe was the slowest to return to growth after a crisis (14monthsafterecon.crisis)

Note:Month0forSept11thcrisis=Sept.2001;forSARS=March2003;forGlobaleconomiccrisis=Jan2009.Source:UNWTO

Impact of three previous crises on mostaffectedregions:

AmericasafterSept.11thattacks(2001),AsiaduringSARS(2003)andEuropeduringtheglobaleconomic crisis (2009)

Monthly change in international tourist arrivals (%)

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Cum

ulat

ive c

hang

e (m

illio

ns)

SARS

Sept. 11th attacks

Global econ. crisis

SARS11 months for recovery

Sept 11th attacks14 months for recovery

Global econ. crisis19 months for recovery


The recovery of lost arrivals was the fastest after SARS (11 months)

ImpactofthreepreviouscrisesonworldarrivalsWorld - Cumulative change in international arrivals (million), by months

Month0forSept11thcrisis=Sept.2001;forSARS=March2003;forGlobaleconomiccrisis=Jan2009.

Source:UNWTO

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

Cum

ulat

ive c

hang

e (m

illio

ns)

Asia Pacific (SARS)

Americas (Sept 11th attacks)

Europe (Global econ. crisis)

Asia during SARS14 months for recovery Americas

after Sept 11th attacks42 months for recovery

Europe during Global econ. crisis29 months for recovery


The Americas was the slowest to recover its lost arrivals after a crisis (42monthsaftertheSept.11thattacks)

Impactofthreepreviouscrisesonmostaffectedregions:Cumulative change in international arrivals (million), by months

Month0forSept11thcrisis=Sept.2001;forSARS=March2003;forGlobaleconomiccrisis=Jan2009.

Source:UNWTO

Summary of previous crises

Crisis Year:

Sept 11th attacks2001

SARS2003

Global econ. Crisis2009

World arrivals(% change)

+0.1% -0.4% -4.0%

month0(zero) Sept.2001 March 2003 Jan.2009

N.ofmonthsforreturntogrownth

5 5 10

N.ofmonthsforreturntoprevious volumes

14 11 19

Worldreceipts (real change, %)

-2.0% -1.7% -5.4%

Mostimpactedregion1 Americas Asia Pacific Europe

Region’s arrivals(% change)

-5.9% -9.4% -5.3%

N.ofmonthsforreturntogrownth

12 7 14

N.ofmonthsforreturntoprevious volumes

42 14 29

Region’s receipts (real change, %)

-11.1% -8.1% -6.7%

Note:Arrivalsreferstointernationaltouristarrivals.Receiptsareinternationaltourismreceipts(visitorexpenditureindestinations).¹Mostimpactedregionintermsofinternationaltouristarrivalsthatyear.In2009,Europewasthemostimpactedregionintermsofarrivals,butAmericassufferedthelargestdropinreceipts:-8%(realterms).Source:UNWTO

Most Vulnerable

Destinations

• Tourismisakeyeconomicsectorandanimportantsourceofexportrevenuesinmanyadvancedandemergingeconomies.

• Destinations which have a high share of tourism as a source of exportrevenues,economicincome,jobcreationandinvestments,are particularly vulnerable to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

• ThisisthecaseofmanySmallIslandDevelopingStates(SIDS),where the share of exports from international tourism in total exportsofgoodsandservicescanbeashighas90%.

• MostaffectedcountriesbyCOVID-19accountfor54%ofalltourismspending(asof2May).Thispotentiallossofthisincomerepresentsaconsiderablechallengeinmanydestinationsrelyingonit.

Small Island Developing States are highly vulnerable Share of international tourism revenues as of total exports (%)

Source:UNWTO

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Hong Kong (China)

Costa Rica

Estonia

New Zealand

Côte d'Ivoire

Malaysia

Greece

Sweden

France

Uruguay

Philippines

Jamaica

Croatia

Jordan

Tourism is a key sector in many advanced and emerging economies Share of Tourism GDP in total GDP (%)

Note:WhenTourismGDPisnotavailable,TourismGrossValueAdded(TGVA)orTourisminternalconsumptionisusedNote:CountrieswithavailableTourismGrossDomesticProductdatafor2015-2018(TourismGDPequalorabove5%oftotalGDP).WhenTourismGDPisnotavailable,TourismGrossValueAdded(TGVA)orTourisminternalconsumptionisused.

Source:CompiledbyUNWTO

Macao (China)JordanSpain

CroatiaMauritius

JamaicaMexico

PhilippinesIceland

UruguayPortugal

FranceThailandSweden

MoroccoGreece

HungaryMalaysia

AustriaCôte d’Ivoire

HondurasNew Zealand

BermudaEstonia

SloveniaCosta Rica

MozambiqueHong Kong (China)

Destinations with high share of domestic tourism are less exposed Guestsinhotelsandsimilarestablishments(THS),Domesticandinboundtourism(%oftotalguests)

Source:CompiledbyUNWTONote:Includesonlycountrieswithavailabledatafor2018orearlierandwithshareofdomesticguestsintotalhigherthan50%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Australia

Peru

Ukraine

Argentina

Sweden

Poland

Mexico

Norway

Saudi Arabia

United Kingdom

Mali

Zimbabwe

Denmark

Slovakia

Hungary

Netherlands

Domestic tourism - Guests in hotels and similar establishments Inbound tourism - Guests in hotels and similar establishments

Centr. African Rep.Netherlands

EcuadorHungary

ItalySlovakia

Korea (ROK)Denmark

IsraelZimbabwe

MalaysiaMali

ThailandUnited Kingdom

FranceSaudi Arabia

BoliviaNorway

Burkina FasoMexico

CameroonPoland

GermanySweden

RomaniaArgentina

Russian FederationUkraine

JapanPeru

IndonesiaAustralia

Most affected countries account for 54% of all spending (over 50,000 cases), as of 2 May 2020

Asof2May2020,atotalof215countries,areasorterritorieshavereportedcasesofCOVID-19

Source:WorldTourismOrganization(UNWTO)Note:Countrieswithmorethan50KCOVID-19reportedcasesto2May2020,accordingtotheWorldHealthOrganization(WHO)

Countries with more than 50K COVID-19 reported cases

Share of World Tourism Arrivals (%)

Tourism Share of Exports in the country (%)

Share of World Tourism Receipts (%)

Share of World Tourism Expenditure (%)

United States 5% 10% 15% 10%

Spain 6% 16% 5% 2%

Italy 4% 8% 3% 2%

United Kingdom 3% 6% 4% 5%

Germany 3% 3% 3% 7%

France 6% 8% 4% 3%

Russian Federation 2% 8% 1% 2%

Turkey 3% 17% 2% 0%

Iran 1% 5% 0% 1%

Brazil 0% 2% 0% 1%

China 4% 1% 3% 19%

Canada 2% 5% 2% 2%

Total 39% 42% 54%

Most affected countries by COVID-19 have a high share of domestic tourism

Domesticandinboundtourismby country (millions)

Source:CompiledbyUNWTONote:Countrieswithavailabledataforbothindicators(2018orearlier).TotaldomesticovernightsinaccommodationusedfortheRussianFederation.

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Italy

Turkey

Canada

United Kingdom

Germany

Spain

France

Russian Federation

United States

China

Domestic overnight trips International tourist arrivals

Key Considerations

• Pandemic

Howlongwillthepandemiclastandwhenwillatreatmentorvaccinebecomeavailable?

• Lifting of travel restrictions and lockdown measures

Whenwillcountriesstarteasingrestrictionsandhow?

Howwillsocialdistancingrulesimpactsupply?

• Consumer & Business confidence

Howlongitwilltakeconsumerstoreassumetravel?

How will travel behavior change?

• Economic impact

Howdeepandhowlongwilltheglobalrecessionbe?

Whatwillbeconsumers’discretionaryspendingdecisions?

• Governments Measures

Howdogovernmentmeasuressupporttourism?

20192.9%

20191.7%

20193.7%

2020-3.0%

2020-6.1%

2020-1.0%

20215.8%

20214.5%

20216.6%

W ORL D ADVA NC E D E CONOM I E S E ME RGI NG AND DE VE L OP I NG E CONOMI E S

The global economy is expected to contract sharply by 3.0% in 2020 to pick up again in 2021

Source:InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)

World merchandise trade is set to plummet by between 13 and 32% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic

Source:WorldTradeOrganization

EconomicFactors

• Theglobaleconomyisprojectedtocontractsharplyby3.0%inabaseline scenario (pandemicfadesinthesecondhalfof2020andcontainment effortscanbegraduallyunwound)topickupin2021by5.8%aseconomic activity normalizes.

• GDPinadvancedeconomiesisexpectedtodecrease6.1%in2020to pickupin2021by4.5%.Emerginganddevelopingeconomieswilldecline -1.0%in2020topickupby6.6%in 2021.

• Collapseincommodityprices: Frommid-Januarytoend-March,crudeoil pricesdroppedbyabout65percent(afallofaboutUS$40abarrel).

• Worldmerchandisetradeissettoplummetbybetween13%and32%in2020duetoCOVID-19.

Challenges & Opportunities

STRENGHTS

• Proven resilience of tourism in past crises• Domestictourismcanbeabuffer• Adaptationcapacity:safetyandhygieneprotocols,tripsclosertohome,

valueformoney,responsibleconsumerbehavior • Government support to the sector

OPPORTUNITIES

• Re-thinkbusinessmodel• Innovationanddigitalization• Sustainabilityandsustainable-orientedsegments(rural,nature,health)• De-escalationphasesinitiatedbyseveralcountriestowardthe‘new

normal‘• Progressinadaptationplansindestinations&companies

WEAKNESSES

• Segmentspotentiallyaffectedarealsohighspenders:international,longhaul,businesstravelandevents

• Majordisruptioninairlineindustrywithairlinefailuresandconcentration • Lackofreferencesinpreviousdownturns• Perceptionoftravelasarisk • Lowlevelsofdemandwhenrestartingtourismduetosocialdistancing

THREATS

• Economicenvironment:worldrecession,risingunemploymentandjobsatrisk,closureofbusinessmainlySMEs,disposableincome,uncertaintyweighingonconsumerandbusinessconfidence

• Uncertainlengthofpandemic(includingresurgence)andvaccineunavailability

• Extentoflockdownsandtravelrestrictions • Unknownformofthe‘newnormal

INTERNALFACTORS

EXTERNALFACTORS

POSITIVE NEGATIVE

UNWTO World Tourism Barometer May 2020Special focus on the Impact of COVID-19

unwto world tourism barometer may 2020€¦ · • according to unwto’s report on covid – 19...

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