“unusual uncertainty” pushes yields lower, commodities higher

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  • 8/9/2019 Unusual Uncertainty pushes yields lower, commodities higher

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    Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine

    covers over 5,000 stocks every day.

    A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks,and commentary can be found HERE.

    August 9 , 2010 Unusual Uncer ta in t y pushes y ie lds low er, com modi t ies h igher

    The yield on the 10-Year tested my annual risky level at 2.813 on Friday. Gold is back above$1200 the Troy ounce. Crude oil is above monthly and annual pivots at $80.02 and $77.05 with aweekly pivot at $81.84 and semiannual risky level at $83.94. The euro should peak at or belowthe 200-day simple moving average at 1.3536. The Dow held my semiannual pivot at 10,558 onFriday and the post-Flash Crash high set on May 13th is 10,920.

    10-Year Note (2.822) My annual risky level at 2.813 has been tested. My annual pivots are 2.999 and2.813 with daily and weekly risky levels at 2.790 and 2.726. Semiannual and monthly value levels are3.479 and 3.601 with quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.495 and 2.249.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Comex Gold ($1206.3) Weekly, quarterly, monthly and annual value levels are $1194.2, $1140.9,$1133.2 and $1115.2 with daily and semiannual pivots at $1214.0 and $1218.7, and my semiannualrisky level at $1260.8.

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    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Nymex Crude Oil ($80.88) Monthly and annual value levels are $80.02 and $77.05 with weekly, dailyand semiannual risky levels at $81.84, $83.60 and $83.94. My quarterly value level is $56.63.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    The Euro (1.3279) Quarterly and monthly value levels are 1.2167, 1.1486 and 1.1424 with daily,weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.3304, 1.3533 and 1.4733.

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    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Daily Dow: (10,654) Monthly, weekly and annual value levels are 10,439, 10405 and 10,379 withsemiannual and daily pivots at 10,558 and 10,633, and monthly risky level at 11,045. My quarterlyvalue level is 7,812. My annual risky level at 11,235 was tested at the April 26thhigh of 11,258.01.This test marked the end of the bear market rally that began in March 2009. We are in the second leg

    of the multi-year bear market that began in October 2007 targeting 8,500 before 11,500.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

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    Fear less Predict ion of t he WeekOnce the Dow cleared my semiannual risky level at 10,558 rising weekly MOJO moved the stockmarket higher. Weakness on Friday was a successful re-test of 10,558 and with continued upwardweekly MOJO the target is the May 13th high of 10,920, the post-Flash Crash high. Should the FOMCStatement be viewed negatively the downside under 10,558 is monthly and weekly value levels at10,439 and 10,405. Keep in mind that unusual uncertainty means low rates for a longer extendedperiod which fuels speculation and the carry trade. Dow 8,500 before Dow 11,500 has been delayed.

    Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

    Richard SuttmeierChief Market Strategistwww.ValuEngine.com

    (800) 381-5576As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. Ihave daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters aswell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as theValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sampleissues of my research.

    I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.