unlock the value of insider data with insiderscore’s proprietary service

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1 Updated January 10, 2006 © Indie Research, LLC – All rights reserved – Confidential and for Internal Use Only InsiderScore Findings and Overview How to take advantage of insider data using InsiderScore to improve your research flow and investment process For questions, to start a trial, or to learn about our discounts for multi-seat accounts, please contact: Rusty Szurek General Manager, InsiderScore.com [email protected] 612-824-0934

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InsiderScore Findings and Overview How to take advantage of insider data using InsiderScore to improve your research flow and investment process. For questions, to start a trial, or to learn about our discounts for multi-seat accounts, please contact: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Unlock the value of insider data with InsiderScore’s proprietary service

1Updated January 10, 2006 © Indie Research, LLC – All rights reserved – Confidential and for Internal Use Only

InsiderScore Findings and OverviewHow to take advantage of insider data using InsiderScore to improve your research flow and investment process

For questions, to start a trial, or to learn about our discounts for multi-seat accounts, please contact:Rusty Szurek General Manager, InsiderScore.com [email protected] 612-824-0934

Page 2: Unlock the value of insider data with InsiderScore’s proprietary service

2Updated January 10, 2006 © Indie Research, LLC – All rights reserved – Confidential and for Internal Use Only

“Insider buys are clearly informative and have better return predictability than analyst recommendations. Consistent with existing studies, we find insider buys to provide valuable informational signals.” - Academic Whitepaper, How Informative are Analyst Recommendations and Insider Trades? (April 12, 2005)

“Insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise." - Peter Lynch

“Combining firm-specific insider-trading signals with the aggregate signals leads to better forecasting of future stock returns.”- Nejat Seyhun, Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading

“Higher scored buy transactions returned nearly three times more than lower scored transactions. Possibly more important is the ‘risk’ associated with a higher scored transaction was significantly lower.”- InsiderScore Finding (September 30, 2005) – see Appendix

“Buying is generally a positive indicator, with all market cap groups showing gains; the size of the gain generally increases as the market cap decreases.”- InsiderScore Finding (September 30, 2005) – see Appendix

InsiderScore’s proprietary algorithms take advantage of this valuable information flow unlike ever before:1. Generate actionable long and short investment and research ideas2. Gain a leading indicator look into insider sentiment for over 200 industry and index groups3. Save time monitoring activity at companies and specific institutions on your Watchlist

“It’s not just the data that is critical; it’s the context provided by InsiderScore…[InsiderScore is] one of the five best debuts in the investment-research sector of the

Web this year.”

Unlock the value of insider data withInsiderScore’s proprietary service

Featured in the June 27 and October 3, 2005 editions

Page 3: Unlock the value of insider data with InsiderScore’s proprietary service

3Updated January 10, 2006 © Indie Research, LLC – All rights reserved – Confidential and for Internal Use Only

InsiderScore allows you to focus on the activity that is notable and most relevant to you

Focus on the transactions and ideas that are most relevant and important to my methodology and companies on my radar

Provide snapshots and features to highlight other notable and interesting company and industry activity

Watchlist (pushed to you via email)

Company Scorecard

Industry Drill Down

Create a Watchlist of hundreds of companies and specific insiders/institutions and receive easy to scan, noise-free daily emails with notable Form 4 and 13 filing updates. Gain unique perspectives on the companies with the most buying and selling inflection points within your Watchlist universe.

Screener (pushed to you via email)Focus on the insider transactions and ideas that are most important to you. Screen over twelve criteria (including by market cap and industry group) and have the results emailed to you. Screen over BOTH individual transactions and aggregate company activity.

Quickly scan a company’s insider activity to do further due diligence and spot potential trends.

Examine activity in an industry group with the ability to drill down to sub-industries and to the company-specific level.

Best and Worst Stocks

Top Transactions

Our proprietary algorithm looks at changes in insider sentiment in order to identify key inflection points, organized by market cap size.

Highlighted Transactions (via email)InsiderScore’s research team provides brief write-ups of the most notable transactions and company activity each day.

View a near real time list of the day’s most notable buy and sell transactions ranked in order using our proprietary scoring system.

InsiderScore Weekly Report (via email)This report provides a weekly snapshot of the most notable company and industry activity. If you don’t have time to visit the web site, this report covers the most important information.

Page 4: Unlock the value of insider data with InsiderScore’s proprietary service

4Updated January 10, 2006 © Indie Research, LLC – All rights reserved – Confidential and for Internal Use Only

InsiderScore uses software and editors to focus on meaningful insider transactions

Using a series of rules, logic and human analysis, we process meaningful transactions while ignoring others

Real-time feed to IS servers

Database of “accepted”

filings

Accepted filing types:• Open-market buys• Open-market exercisesThree types of sells are distinctly labeled:• Open-market sell• Exercise and sell• 10b5-1 sell

Examples:• Individual transactions from the same filing are grouped together•Footnotes are reviewed• The type of transaction is noted• Identify mislabeled filings

Rejected filing examples:• Employee stock purchase plan buys• Director compensation• Price and volume inconsistencies• Option grants

Each transaction is scored using our proprietary algorithm

See next slide…

We’ve built an intelligent foundation that can be

analyzed by company and industry

Rules and logic are

applied to filing

Certain transactions are

flagged and reviewed by

data integrity specialist

Examples:• Duplicate transactions• Potential mislabeled filings• IPO and secondary transactions• Other potential filing errors

Company files Form 4 or Form 13 with the SEC

Database of “rejected”

filings

These filings are accessible internally, but not displayed on the web site

Page 5: Unlock the value of insider data with InsiderScore’s proprietary service

5Updated January 10, 2006 © Indie Research, LLC – All rights reserved – Confidential and for Internal Use Only

Scored transactions become the buildingblocks that allow us to rate companies and industries Each insider transaction is scored using our internal algorithm, looking at a number of criteria. Examples include:

- Position of the insider, size of the transaction, type of transaction, and more

We then calculate the company’s score:

The sum of the transaction scores over the past six months multiplied by a consensus factor where we look at the number of insiders making buys and sells. The percentile rank of the company’s score is displayed.

While the company score is a good gauge of the “temperature,” or level of insider sentiment in a company, we’re more interested in the change in temperature, i.e. is it getting hotter or colder.

A company score calculated and displayed to the right of each symbol

Each transaction is individually scored; the range is +4 to -4

Example:

Quickly identify notable transactions, companies, industries and inflection point changes in sentiment

Notable buy: +0.6 to +1.4> +1.4< -2.7

Very notable buy:Notable sell:

Scoring context key

Green and red arrows denote companies at potential insider inflection points

Page 6: Unlock the value of insider data with InsiderScore’s proprietary service

6Updated January 10, 2006 © Indie Research, LLC – All rights reserved – Confidential and for Internal Use Only

Create screens to focus on relevant activity Use our screener to focus on the insider transactions and ideas that are most important to you. You can also select to have the results emailed to you on a weekly or daily basis. Choose among 12 different parameters (including industry and market cap groupings) when creating your screen. You can also screen for activist investors.

Sort the results by any column

Continue to edit and refine your screen to optimize results

Export your screen results directly to Excel for further analysis

Screen based on percent change before the transaction to isolate buying on strength and selling on weakness

Analyze the percent change after the transaction to optimize your screen

Leverage our present screens to find interesting ideas; copy a preset screen to customize for your methodology

The InsiderScore screener was a favorite of Barron’s in its October 3, 2005 edition

Page 7: Unlock the value of insider data with InsiderScore’s proprietary service

7Updated January 10, 2006 © Indie Research, LLC – All rights reserved – Confidential and for Internal Use Only

Create aggregate company screens Use our screener to find aggregate company insider activity over any specific timeframe. For

example, you could choose to display all companies that have greater than $500K worth of buying by CEOs and CFOs over the past six months. Screen over the same parameters as a transaction screen.

Sort the results by any column

Continue to edit and refine your screen to optimize results

Export your screen results directly to Excel for further analysis

Total number of

transactions

Breakout of the insiders making the transactions

Determine the insider overall sentiment

Total number of shares and total value allows us to calculate the average price and the subsequent change based on yesterday’s price

Page 8: Unlock the value of insider data with InsiderScore’s proprietary service

8Updated January 10, 2006 © Indie Research, LLC – All rights reserved – Confidential and for Internal Use Only

Create a watchlist of hundreds of companies or insiders/institutions (or have one of our associates assist you). You will be notified on the web site (in near real-time) and in the email updates when Form 4 and Form 13 filings are filed with the SEC. Our filtering and labeling mechanism ensures you are shown the most important filings while others – such as option grants and ESOPs - are filtered.

Track activity at hundreds of companiesand insiders/institutions

Important transaction information is displayed directly on the Watchlist page. You can sort by any column or export to Excel

Choose to only review results related to companies or results

View different timeframes or choose to only view a specific type

Add companies, insiders/institutions or industries in an easy to use interface

Page 9: Unlock the value of insider data with InsiderScore’s proprietary service

9Updated January 10, 2006 © Indie Research, LLC – All rights reserved – Confidential and for Internal Use Only

Our proprietary views allow you to quickly see insider trends within your coverage universe. View the companies that have seen the most buying and selling over the past month and the companies that have seen the largest buying and selling inflection points.

Easily identify buying and selling inflection points within your Watchlist universe

The results contain recent activity and show you changes from the average purchase or sale price. Sort by any column for deeper analysis

Select from different five different views

Page 10: Unlock the value of insider data with InsiderScore’s proprietary service

10Updated January 10, 2006 © Indie Research, LLC – All rights reserved – Confidential and for Internal Use Only

The most relevant content is pushed to you Receive daily or weekly updates that include the latest matches to your screens sorted by screen.

Receive daily updates of the filings related to the companies on your Watchlist. We’ve taken great care to push an easy-to-scan email containing the most relevant transactions to your investment style to you each day.

Only new results are displayed, conveniently broken out by screen

Receive easy-to-scan Form 4 and Form alerts for all companies on your Watchlist, with easy one-click access to complete more due diligence

Page 11: Unlock the value of insider data with InsiderScore’s proprietary service

11Updated January 10, 2006 © Indie Research, LLC – All rights reserved – Confidential and for Internal Use Only

InsiderScore Weekly PDF Report

Sent every Wednesday, InsiderScore’s Weekly Report covers the most notable company and industry activity. If you don’t have time to visit the web site, it’s the perfect way to stay on top of the most notable activity.

Includes graph and statistics on insider activity across the entire market

Other pages of interest include:• Analytical commentary on positive industries• Analytical commentary on negative industries• New companies to the Best stocks list• Companies seeing the largest amount of buying• New companies to the Worst stocks list• Companies seeing the largest amount of selling• The most positive and negative industries• A complete listing of our highlighted transactions

Example of a page that lists company information

Page 12: Unlock the value of insider data with InsiderScore’s proprietary service

12Updated January 10, 2006 © Indie Research, LLC – All rights reserved – Confidential and for Internal Use Only

Best and Worst Stocks Example of scoring methodology at work: This section displays companies that are experiencing the

most notable changes in buying and selling versus past buying and selling trends. Use the Best and Worst feature to identify companies that are at buying and selling inflection points.

Company ranking is determined by comparing the company’s score over the past month versus the previous five months

Throughout InsiderScore, companies at a inflection points are depicted with green (positive) and red (negative) triangles

The company score is the temperature We’re more interested in the change in temperature – is it getting hotter or

colder?

Companies new to the list within seven days Quickly see the stock

price performance based on an insider’s average purchase or sale price

Tabs allow for quick views of the best and worst by market cap grouping

Page 13: Unlock the value of insider data with InsiderScore’s proprietary service

13Updated January 10, 2006 © Indie Research, LLC – All rights reserved – Confidential and for Internal Use Only

Industry Drill Down Using our hierarchy of industries, you can conveniently navigate through a macro industry (like Technology)

to see how sub-industries (like Computer Software or Computer Hardware) are trending, all the way down to the specific companies that comprise the industry. This perspective allows you to easily identify the specific pockets of a sector that are experiencing the most buying and selling activity. On top of that, you can click on a sub-industry listing to see the detailed chart and historical statistics of that industry as well.

Technology’s sub-industries

View the largest buying and selling inflection points for companies within

any industry

View the most recent insider transactions in any industry – think of it as an Industry Watchlist

Page 14: Unlock the value of insider data with InsiderScore’s proprietary service

14Updated January 10, 2006 © Indie Research, LLC – All rights reserved – Confidential and for Internal Use Only

Company Scorecard

Quickly view the insider activity at any company. The company scorecard contains a detailed listing of each open market buy, sell and exercise transaction and Form 13 filing. It also contains aggregated information for the top insiders for the company and for different timeframes of insider activity.

Listing of the top five most active insiders and the net value of their transactions

Breakdown of all insider activity by timeframe to easily note trends

Each transaction is distinctly labeled including separate labels for Exercise and Sell and 10b5-1 Planned Selling

Key information is pulled from the filing allowing for easy scanning

Quickly see if any transactions have been highlighted by our research team and easily read the commentary

Sort the information by any column. Export the results to an Excel file

Exclude 10b5-1 sells from appearing

Page 15: Unlock the value of insider data with InsiderScore’s proprietary service

15Updated January 10, 2006 © Indie Research, LLC – All rights reserved – Confidential and for Internal Use Only

InsiderScore’s Insider Scorecard provides a complete view of all companies at which the person is an insider. It also consolidates the person’s trading over the past eighteen months so you can quickly gauge how their investments have performed.

We plan to add a Smartlist of insiders based on insider performance.

Aggregated summary quickly allows you to see how well their investments have performed

Insider Scorecard

Click the complete history link to view all of their transactions for that company

Page 16: Unlock the value of insider data with InsiderScore’s proprietary service

16Updated January 10, 2006 © Indie Research, LLC – All rights reserved – Confidential and for Internal Use Only

Top Transactions This section displays companies all Form 4 and Form 13 transactions that were filed on a particular day.

New transactions are updated in real-time. Transactions are ranked in order of most notable to least notable using our proprietary transaction scoring algorithm allowing you to quickly focus on the most important transactions.

The top twenty-five buy and sell transactions are included in email updates.An archive is also included so you can review transactions from previous days

Transactions are listed by score but can be sorted by any column

Page 17: Unlock the value of insider data with InsiderScore’s proprietary service

17Updated January 10, 2006 © Indie Research, LLC – All rights reserved – Confidential and for Internal Use Only

Appendix - does insider activity matter? YES, our comprehensive analysis of insider activity resulted in the following conclusions1:

Finding #1: Higher transaction scores lead to more positive returns (read: InsiderScore's scoring does matter)As you can see from the results, on average, higher scored buys transactions returned over three times more than lower scored transactions. Possibly more important is the "risk" associated with a higher scored transaction was significantly lower. The average loss for the bottom 150 results was over six times larger for buy transactions scored greater than 1.4. The number of "losers" resulting from buy transactions over +1.4 was 24%, over one-third less than the 36% resulting from buys scored +0.1 to +0.6.

Finding #2: Notable buying is generally a positive indicator for all market cap groups, and strongest for smaller cap namesWe used two different data sets to confirm our hypothesis. The first set of results includes the top 150 percentage gainers over the past twelve months resulting from buy transactions of greater than +0.6 separated by market cap group. The second set of results includes the most recent buy transactions of greater than +0.6 irrespective of the stock's change, i.e. they include gains and losses. We’ve included the first set below:

Finding #3: Selling is generally not as strong an indicator but can provide profitable short ideasIntuitively, selling should not be as strong an indicator as buying for a simple reason - people buy stock to make money, they sell for many reasons. That said, a bias towards losses was apparent - with 37% of the companies resulting in an average loss of -21.5% when we looked at all sell transactions with a score of less than -2.7 for companies with market caps of greater than $100M over the past twelve months.

As we look deeper into the data, we see many names that have been favorites of short-sellers over the past year: Blockbuster (BBI), Audbile.com (ADBL), DHB Industries (DHB), Smith Micro Software (SMSI), Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) and Tempur Pedic (TPX).

1 Please note, the methodology used to derive the conclusions are accurate to the best of our knowledge, but we cannot guarantee accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Page 18: Unlock the value of insider data with InsiderScore’s proprietary service

18Updated January 10, 2006 © Indie Research, LLC – All rights reserved – Confidential and for Internal Use Only

Appendix (continued)

Finding #4: Insider activity can be analyzed across the market or industry groupings to generate buy signals

See the InsiderScore Findings PDF report for a comprehensive review of all findings

High levels of insider buying near-perfectly correlated with market bottoms over the past two years for the overall market and for healthcare industry. We have backtested data for over twenty industries and are working to develop proprietary buy and sell indicators.

Finding #5: Insider buying often coincides with underlying fundamental company developmentsAs evidenced by the strong results above in Findings #1 and #2, you can be sure we've found a number of specific company examples where there were notable fundamental developments. We included the following handful of examples in our InsiderScore Findings document:

Natco (NTG), Viropharma (VPHM), Tempur Pedix (TPX) [selling], Franklin Covey (FC), Compuware (CPWR)

Bottom line: We are extremely confident InsiderScore will put actionable ideas on your radar related to companies that are seeing fundamental changes in their businesses.

• Bullish Indicator #1: August 11, 2004 - Wilshire 5000 @ 10,389 (+16.2%) • Bullish Indicator #2: April 27, 2005 - Wilshire 5000 @ 11,365 (+6.2%) • Wilshire 5000 closed at 12,072 on September 21, 2005